March 2013 Climate and Hydrology Summary

March 2013

Tulsa: March 2013 was the 29th coldest (47.7°F, tied 1951; since 1905) and the 27th driest (1.10", tied 1895; since 1888) March on record. A trace of snow fell this month in Tulsa.

Fort Smith: March 2013 was the 41st coldest (49.7°F, tied 1954; since 1883) and the 53rd wettest (3.42"; since 1883) March on record.

Fort Smith: Daily records set or tied this month include a record warm maximum temperature.

Fayetteville: March 2013 was the 9th coldest (44.0°F; since 1950) and the 20th wettest (4.48"; since 1950) March on record. A trace of snow fell this month in Fayetteville.

Fayetteville: Daily records set or tied this month include a record warm maximum temperature.

Using the radar-derived estimated observed precipitation from the RFCs, rainfall totals for March 2013 ranged from less than 1” to around 6”, with the highest totals east of a Nowata to Wagoner to McAlester to Atoka line. Only a small portion of the area ended the month above normal, with a majority of eastern OK and northwest AR receiving 50% to 90% of the normal March rainfall. Portions of Osage, Pawnee, Creek, Okmulgee, and Okfuskee Counties only received 10% to 25% of the normal rainfall this month.

1" to 3" of snow fell across northeast OK and along the AR/MO state line by the morning of the 24th as an upper-level low passed by.

According to the Drought Monitor from March 26, 2013, all of eastern OK and northwest AR was in Moderate to Extreme drought, except for eastern Carroll County which has been classified as abnormally dry. The rain at the end of March helped reduce the drought impacts across the area, even though the March 26 Drought Monitor does not include the rain that fell in the last days of the month. Extreme drought (D3) conditions were still affecting portions of Osage, Pawnee, Creek, western Tulsa, Washington, and western Nowata Counties in eastern OK. Severe (D2) drought was present across eastern Nowata, western Craig, Rogers, western Mayes, Tulsa, Wagoner, western Muskogee, Okmulgee, Okfuskee, western Pushmataha, and western Choctaw Counties in eastern OK. The remainder of the area, except for eastern Carroll County, was experiencing Moderate (D1) conditions existed.

According to the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, March 2013 was the 29th driest for northeast Oklahoma, the 34th driest for east central Oklahoma, and the 38th wettest for southeast Oklahoma. Records go back to 1921.

According to the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, for the 365-day time period April 1, 2012 - March 31, 2013, northeast Oklahoma ranked as 9th driest, east central Oklahoma ranked as 3rd driest, and southeast Oklahoma ranked as 3rd driest. Records go back to 1921.

Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center CPC outlook for April 2013 (issued March 31, 2013) indicates a slightly enhanced chance for above normal temperatures across all of eastern OK and northwest AR. This outlook also indicates a slightly enhanced chance for above median rainfall south of I-40 and equal chances for above, near, and below median precipitation across the remainder of northeast OK and northwest AR. The precipitation portion of this outlook is based primarily on short-range computer models that show a storm system during the first few days of April. The beginning of April will be cold, but keep in mind this temperature outlook is for the monthly mean temperature.

For the 3-month period Apr-May-Jun 2013, CPC is forecasting a greatly enhanced chance for above normal temperatures and an equal chance for above, near, and below median precipitation across all of eastern OK and northwest AR (outlook issued March 21, 2013). This outlook is primarily based on dynamic computer model output, with some input from statistical forecast tools and long-term trends.

According to CPC, ENSO neutral conditions remained through March. ENSO neutral conditions are expected to continue through Spring 2013, followed by uncertain conditions in the ENSO state beyond that time.