June 2015 Climate and Hydrology Summary

Tulsa: June 2015 was the 18th warmest (80.8°F; since 1905) and the 59th wettest (4.77"; since 1888) June on record.

Tulsa: Daily records set or tied this month include daily rainfall records.

Fort Smith: June 2015 was the 14th warmest (80.8°F, tied 1943, 1933; since 1882) and the 57th driest (3.13"; since 1882) June on record.

Fort Smith: No daily records were set or tied this month.

Fayetteville: June 2015 was the 18th warmest (75.2°F, tied 1984; since 1950) and the 14th wettest (6.77"; since 1950) June on record.

Fayetteville: Daily records set or tied this month include a record daily rainfall.

McAlester: Daily records set or tied this month include daily rainfall records.

Using the radar-derived estimated observed precipitation from the RFCs, rainfall totals for June 2015 ranged from around 1.5” to around 10” across eastern OK and northwest AR. The lowest totals occurred in eastern Kay, northern Osage, Le Flore, and Sebastian Counties, while the highest totals affected Creek, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Pittsburg, and Madison Counties. A large portion of the area received 5”-8” of rain this month. Despite the high rainfall totals, several areas recorded below normal rainfall for June. Portions of Osage, Kay, Pawnee Counties, far northeast OK, southeast OK, and west central AR got only 25%-90% of the normal June rainfall, while elsewhere, the June rainfall was 125% to around 200% of normal.

There were 17 mainstem river floods at 13 river forecast points in June 2015. Of these, 2 were major (Deep Fork River near Beggs and the Red River at Arthur City) and 4 were moderate floods. There were also 9 river floods that remained in flood into the beginning of June from the rain in May. Ozark Lock and Dam had a major flood crest on June 1.

Two tropical systems affected the HSA this month. The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill brought widespread flooding rains to an already saturated eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during June 2015. Despite this, several areas still received below normal rainfall for June.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill moved north out of the Gulf of Mexico, across central TX, and into south central OK on the 17th. The tropical system then slowed and began moving northeast across the NWS Tulsa area late on the 17th and through the 18th. The center of the remnants moved from south central OK to near McAlester by late morning on the 18th. The storm then travelled along a path from there to near Stigler, to Fort Smith, to southern Madison County through the remainder of the 18th. Feeder bands of heavy rain occurred ahead of the circulation center, while the highest rainfall totals occurred near the path of the center. Abnormally high atmospheric moisture, near record high precipitable water for June, made the system very efficient at making rain, with amounts of 2” to 5” across a large area of eastern OK and northwest AR. The highest totals of 5”-12” occurred from south central OK up through portions of northeast and east central OK and into northwest AR. Portions of southeast OK, including Le Flore County, as well as portions of west central AR and Osage and Pawnee Counties received the least amount of rain, generally less than 2”. With nearly saturated soils from the excessive rainfall and flooding in May, as well as the heavy rain a few days prior, much of the rain became runoff and resulted in flash flooding and river flooding. Several high water rescues were reported in Tulsa County. There were also widespread reports of high water making roads impassable throughout eastern OK. There were 13 river forecast points that went into flood, two of which crested in Major Flood, 3 crested in Moderate Flood, and 8 crested in Minor Flood. Major flooding occurred along the Deep Fork River near Beggs and along the Red River near Arthur City. Additional information is available in the detailed report link at the top of this webpage.

According to the Drought Monitor from June 30, 2015, drought free conditions continued across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

According to the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, June 2015 was the 43rd wettest for northeast Oklahoma, the 16th wettest for east central Oklahoma, and the 47th wettest for southeast Oklahoma. Records go back to 1921. For the 60-day period May2-June 30, 2015, northeast Oklahoma ranked as the 5th wettest, east central Oklahoma was the record wettest, and southeast Oklahoma was the 2nd wettest period. For the Water Year-to-date, October 1, 2014-June 30, 2015, northeast Oklahoma ranked as the 15th wettest, east central Oklahoma was the 3rd wettest, and southeast Oklahoma was the 7th wettest period.

Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center CPC outlook for July 2015 (issued June 30, 2015) indicates an enhanced chance for below normal temperatures and above median rainfall across all of eastern OK and northwest AR. This outlook is based substantially on information from the short-term forecast for the first half of July. The overall expected weather pattern during this time is a ridge over western North America with a downstream trough near the east coast of the U.S. Some models indicate this pattern will persist through the remainder of July, while others show this pattern breaking down.

The Climate Prediction Center CPC outlook for the 3-month period July-August-September 2015, CPC is forecasting an enhanced chance for below normal temperatures and a slightly enhanced chance for above median precipitation across all of eastern OK and northwest AR (outlook issued June 18, 2015). This outlook is based primarily on both statistical and dynamical forecast tools, but does consider El Niño conditions and possible impacts.

According to CPC, El Niño conditions continue to strengthen and are currently of moderate strength. The coupling between the ocean and atmosphere remains strong over the tropical Pacific. A moderate to strong El Niño is forecast to persist into early 2016. However, El Niño impacts are generally most significant in the Southern Plains during the cold seasons.