June 2014 Climate and Hydrology Summary

June 2014

Tulsa: June 2014 was the 45th warmest (78.2°F, tied 2008, 2006, 2001, 1964; since 1905) and the 59th wettest (4.67"; since 1888) June on record.

Fort Smith: June 2014 was the 30th warmest (79.3°F, tied 1986, 1924, 1922; since 1882) and the 50th wettest (4.45"; since 1882) June on record.

Fayetteville: June 2014 was the 28th warmest (73.5°F, tied 1965, 1975, 1996; since 1950) and the 32nd driest (4.10"; since 1950) June on record.

Fayetteville: Daily records set or tied this month include a record cold maximum temperature.

Using the radar-derived estimated observed precipitation from the RFCs, rainfall totals for June 2014 ranged from 2” in southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas to around 10” in isolated locations of Rogers, Delaware, and Pittsburg Counties. The majority of the area received 3”-5” of rain this month. A large area from southeast Oklahoma into west central and northwest Arkansas received only 50%-75% of the normal June rainfall, with a few spots receiving less than 50% of normal. Below normal precipitation was also observed along the Arkansas River Valley in northeast Oklahoma, with this area seeing 50% to 90% of the normal June rain. Eastern Kay County, far northeast Oklahoma, and Benton and Carroll Counties in northwest Arkansas received well above normal rainfall this month, at 125% to around 200% of the June normal.

Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas were affected by numerous mesoscale convective systems during June 2014, bringing much needed rain to the region.

According to the Drought Monitor from July 1, 2014, Extreme Drought (D3) conditions were affecting Pawnee, Osage, and western Creek Counties in northeast Oklahoma. Severe Drought (D2) conditions were impacting western Choctaw County and locations primarily along and north of I-44, including Osage, eastern Creek, western Okfuskee, western Okmulgee, Tulsa, Washington, Rogers, Nowata, and Craig Counties. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions were present across Ottawa, eastern Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Mayes, western Wagoner, far southern Pushmataha, and eastern Choctaw Counties. Abnormally Dry (D0), but not experiencing drought, conditions were occurring across the remainder of eastern OK, except for Pittsburg, western Latimer, and far western Haskell Counties. In northwest AR, D0 conditions were affecting Benton, Carroll, Washington, Crawford, and northwestern Franklin Counties.

According to the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, June 2014 was the 27th wettest for northeast Oklahoma, the 33rd wettest for east central Oklahoma, and the 43rd wettest for southeast Oklahoma. Records go back to 1921.

Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center CPC outlook for July 2014 (issued June 30, 2014) indicates a slightly enhanced chance for below median precipitation across west central and northwest AR, with equal chances for above, near, and below median precipitation elsewhere across the area. This outlook also indicates equal chances for above, near, and below normal temperatures across all of eastern OK and northwest AR. This outlook is based on short-range forecasts of expected weather conditions.

The Climate Prediction Center CPC outlook for the 3-month period July-August-September 2014 indicates an enhanced chance for above normal temperatures and equal chances for above, near, and below median rainfall across all of eastern OK and northwest AR (outlook issued June 19, 2014). This outlook is based on both statistical and dynamical forecast tools and considering El Niño conditions.

According to CPC, current atmospheric and oceanic observations suggest a transition from ENSO neutral to El Niño conditions is underway. El Niño is forecast to develop during the next several months, with the probability of El Niño conditions during July-August-September 2014 over 70%. An El Niño of moderate strength is most likely.