July 2014 Climate and Hydrology Summary

Tulsa: July 2014 was the 5th coldest (78.2°F; since 1905) and the 34th wettest (4.42"; since 1888) July on record.

Fort Smith: July 2014 was the 8th coldest (78.3°F; since 1882) and the 58th wettest (2.68", tied 1983; since 1882) July on record.

Fayetteville: July 2014 was the RECORD coldest (72.7°F; since 1950) and the 33rd wettest and driest (2.43"; since 1950) July on record.

Fayetteville recorded its coldest July, 72.7°F, since records began in 1950. The previous record was 73.8°F in 1950.

There was one heating degree day (HDD) recorded in Tulsa in July 2014. This is only the 3rd time in recorded history (since 1905) that this has occurred. The other times were July 1947 (1 HDD) and July 1953 (2 HDDs).

In both Fort Smith and Fayetteville, July 2014 was colder than June 2014. This has only occurred 7 other times since records began in 1882 in Fort Smith (1891, 1905, 1911, 1925, 1950, 1953, 1967). This has only occurred 3 other times since records began in 1950 in Fayetteville (1953, 1971, 1994).

The last time there were no days with temperatues at or above 100°F in Fort Smith during July was 2007. The last time there were no days with temperatues at or above 100°F in Fort Smith during both June and July was also 2007. August 2007 then had 7 days at or above 100°F. The last time Fort Smith went the entire summer without reaching 100°F was in 2004.

In 2014, Fayetteville recorded its 3rd coldest June-July period (73.1°F) since records began in 1950. The record coldest June-July is 72.8°F in 1976, followed by 73.0°F in 2004.

July 2014 was the coldest July on record for the state of Arkansas. The Arkansas average temperature was 75.7°F, 4.6°F below the 20th century average and dipping below the previous record cold July that occurred in 1967.

Using the radar-derived estimated observed precipitation from the RFCs, rainfall totals for July 2014 ranged from 1” in northwest AR to around 11” in isolated locations of southeast OK. The majority of the HSA received 3”-5” of rain this month. Most of northwest AR, as well as far northeast OK, received only 25%-75% of the normal July rainfall this month, though portions of Crawford, Sebastian, and Franklin Counties ended the month above normal. The remainder of eastern OK saw near normal to around 200% of normal this month, and central Pittsburg County received over 300% of the normal July rainfall.

Several cold fronts brought well below average temperatures to eastern OK and northwest AR in July 2014. Far northeast OK and northwest AR received below normal rainfall this month, with much above normal precipitation across southeast OK.

According to the Drought Monitor from July 29, 2014, Extreme Drought (D3) conditions remained across Pawnee, southwest Osage, and western Creek Counties in northeast OK. Severe Drought (D2) conditions were Osage, eastern Creek, western Okfuskee, western Okmulgee, western Tulsa, Washington, northern Rogers, Nowata, and Craig Counties in eastern OK. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions were present across Ottawa, southern Craig, southern Rogers, Tulsa, eastern Okfuskee, Okmulgee, northern Mayes, western Wagoner, Adair, eastern Sequoyah, and western Choctaw Counties in eastern OK, and Crawford and Washington Counties in northwest AR. Abnormally Dry (D0), but not experiencing drought, conditions were occurring across the remainder of eastern OK along and north of I-40, as well as southern Pushmataha and Choctaw Counties. In northwest AR, D0 conditions were affecting Benton, Carroll, southeastern Crawford, Madison, and far northwestern Franklin Counties.

According to the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, the 30-day period from July 2-31, 2014 was the 29th wettest for northeast Oklahoma, the 19th wettest for east central Oklahoma, and the 7th wettest for southeast Oklahoma. Records go back to 1921.

Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center CPC outlook for August 2014 (issued July 31, 2014) indicates a slightly enhanced chance for above median precipitation and equal chances for above, near, and below normal temperatures across all of eastern OK and northwest AR. This outlook is based on short-range forecasts of expected weather conditions, primarily for the first half of August.

The Climate Prediction Center CPC outlook for the 3-month period August-September-October 2014 indicates an enhanced chance for above median precipitation and equal chances for above, near, and below normal temperatures across all of eastern OK and northwest AR (outlook issued July 17, 2014). This outlook is based on both statistical and dynamical forecast tools and considering El Niño conditions.

According to CPC, current atmospheric and oceanic observations suggest a transition from ENSO neutral to El Niño conditions is underway. El Niño is still favored to be in place by early fall, though the uncertainty about the pace of onset and intensity have increased slightly. An El Niño of weak to moderate strength is most likely.