Heavy to Excessive Rainfall This Week from the Southwest into Central U.S.; Severe Weather in the Southern Plains

Pacific tropical moisture wrapping into a storm will continue a multi-day heavy rainfall event this week that will impact multiple areas in the Plains and Intermountain West. Isolated severe thunderstorm wind gusts and possibly a tornado or two could occur tonight from southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Read More >

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Last Map Update: Wed, Sep 30, 2026 at 5:32:22 am CDT

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Severe Storm Potential Today

Severe Storm Potential Thursday

Precipitation Timing

Heavy Rain Potential This Week

Forecast Summary

A marginal risk for severe weather exists late this afternoon and evening for parts of eastern Oklahoma west of Highway 75. Damaging winds will be the main threat, but an isolated QLCS tornado may also occur.

A marginal risk for severe weather exists for much of eastern Oklahoma and a small part of northwest Arkansas Thursday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds will be the main threat.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into the region beginning late Wednesday and lasting through the end of the week. The heaviest rain will peak Wednesday night through Friday morning across eastern Oklahoma and into far western Arkansas. Light to moderate rain will likely linger into the first part of the weekend. Lightning and heavy rain will likely impact outdoor events through the end of the week.

Confidence is increasing that heavy rain will impact portions of E OK & NW AR this week as a strong storm system moves into the region. Uncertainty remains regarding timing and heaviest rain placement, but rainfall amounts of 2-3.5 inches, locally 5 inches, are possible. Please monitor the forecast for updates.

Above normal temperatures continue through Wednesday. Unsettled weather for mid to late week. Expect several periods of high rain chances and heavy rain potential. Some severe weather potential will exist as well.

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Heavy to Excessive Rainfall This Week from the Southwest into Central U.S.; Severe Weather in the Southern Plains

NWS Forecast Office Tulsa, OK