Risks of Severe Thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall in the Central U.S.; Fire Weather Concerns in Alaska and Southwest

An expansive storm system will bring widespread storms with a threat for flash flooding and severe weather to much of the central to eastern U.S. into early this week. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across interior Alaska this weekend. Elevated fire conditions also expected in the Southwest U.S.. Conditions will remain uncomfortably hot across the southern Plains and the Southeast. Read More >

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Last Map Update: Sun, Jun 21, 2026 at 3:36:37 am CDT

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National Weather Service Little Rock, AR

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Severe Outlook Saturday

Severe Outlook Sunday

Severe Outlook Monday

Excessive Rainfall Outlook Sat-Mon

Heat Advisory Sunday

Forecast Summary

While mostly dry conditions are expected during the day Saturday, a complex of thunderstorms is expected to approach portions of northeast Oklahoma late in the evening/overnight. While it is uncertain how far these storms will move into northeast Oklahoma, severe weather will be possible. Damaging wind gusts are the primary hazard, but large hail may also occur. Storms may also produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

There is a marginal to slight risk of severe weather Sunday as storms develop in the vicinity of a slow moving frontal boundary. While an isolated strong to severe storm will be possible during the afternoon, the main severe threat occurs during the evening and overnight hours. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and heavy rainfall/flash flooding are the primary hazards. However, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out over northeast Oklahoma or northwest Arkansas during the evening.

Strong to severe thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning, especially across SE OK and W-Central AR. While these storms should generally weaken and decrease into the early afternoon, additional thunderstorms are forecast to impact the area by late evening and overnight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and heavy rainfall/flash flooding will continue to be the main hazards.

There is a marginal to moderate risk (15-50% chance) of excessive rainfall Sunday through Tuesday due to repeated rounds of thunderstorms. Widespread 1 - 4” rainfall totals are forecast Sunday-Tuesday, though locally higher amounts in excess of 6” will be possible. The heaviest rain occurs Sunday night/Monday. Instances of flash flooding and rises on local rivers and streams are expected.

The Heat Advisory was expanded to include additional counties in E OK where heat indices up to 106 F will be possible Sunday afternoon. Please be mindful of the heat during your outdoor activities, take frequent breaks, and stay hydrated!

Weather hazards and forecast summary for eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Key messages listed on the bottom left.

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Risks of Severe Thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall in the Central U.S.; Fire Weather Concerns in Alaska and Southwest

NWS Forecast Office Tulsa, OK