Dangerously hot conditions are occurring today in southeast Oklahoma, the ArkLaTex, lower Mississippi Valley, and Puerto Rico. Hot temperatures surround this area throughout the southern U.S. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories in effect. Excessive rainfall may lead to flash flooding today over parts of northern Alabama into eastern Tennessee and the Cascades. Read More >
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Topeka KS Issued By National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 407 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2020 ...2020 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1... This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Topeka Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) which includes the Republican River, Solomon River, Smoky Hill River, Big Blue River, Kansas River, Marais Des Cygnes River, Neosho River, and their tributaries in north central, northeast and east central Kansas. ...There is a normal to above normal probability of flooding during the next three months... Outlook: Locations that typically flood each spring are expected to experience minor flooding during the outlook period ending at mid- May. Locations with a 50 percent or greater probability of flooding include the following: Little Blue River near Barnes, Big Blue River at Blue Rapids, Black Vermillion at Frankfort, Vermillion Creek near Louisville, Solomon River at Niles, and Marias Des Cygnes River near Reading and Quenemo. Recent Conditions: Average temperature during the past 60-days ranged from around 30 degrees across north-central Kansas to the middle 30s in east- central Kansas. These values are generally 2 to 5 degrees above normal. During the past 60-days, precipitation totals ranged from near 2 inches across far northeast Kansas to nearly 6 inches over parts of east-central Kansas. These values ranged from 100 to 200 percent of normal precipitation. Present Conditions: Across the NWS Topeka HSA, current soil moisture percentiles range from in excess of 95 percent across north-central Kansas to around 90 percent in east-central Kansas. To the north, much of south- central Nebraska have soil moisture percentiles in excess of 99 percent. 7-Day average streamflow indicates above to much above streamflow values across southern Nebraska, into northern and eastern Kansas. No snow cover exists over southern Nebraska into far north-central Kansas. Further south, snow cover over northeast and east-central Kansas contains less than a half inch of water equivalent. Available local reservoir flood control storage is currently above 99 percent. Future Conditions: Precipitation over the next seven days is expected to be less than a tenth inch of liquid across all of Kansas and Nebraska. During the 8 to 14 day period, the overall pattern favors below normal precipitation and slightly above normal temperature across the northern half of Kansas. During the March through May period there is no strong signal for either above or below temperatures while the pattern favors an increased probability of above normal precipitation across far northeast and eastern Kansas. The next Spring Flood Outlook will be issued February 27, 2020. In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 02/15/2020 - 05/15/2020 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Big Blue River Marysville 35.0 38.2 43.0 : 8 5 5 <5 <5 <5 :Little Blue River Hollenberg 19.0 19.4 45.0 : 6 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 :Mill Creek Washington 18.0 19.0 35.0 : 38 32 21 29 <5 <5 :Little Blue River Barnes 16.0 23.0 39.0 : 52 34 16 7 <5 <5 :Big Blue River Blue Rapids 26.0 52.0 68.0 : 72 39 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Black Vermillion River Frankfort 19.0 27.5 40.5 : 77 68 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Fancy Creek Randolph 16.0 24.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Chapman Creek Chapman 19.0 26.0 37.0 : 27 30 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Lyon Creek Junction City 21.0 35.0 39.0 : 25 41 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Smoky Hill River Junction City 22.0 32.0 44.0 : 18 26 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kansas River Ft Riley 21.0 26.0 33.0 : 15 15 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Wildcat Creek Manhattan Scenic 14.0 17.0 23.0 : 14 12 7 7 <5 <5 :Kansas River Manhattan 18.0 26.0 42.0 : 17 26 <5 <5 <5 <5 Wamego 19.0 26.0 38.0 : 6 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Vermillion Creek Louisville 30.0 34.0 44.0 : 57 51 33 33 <5 <5 :Rock Creek Louisville 27.0 33.0 43.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kansas River Belvue 20.0 28.0 33.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cross Creek Rossville 25.0 29.0 31.0 : 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Mill Creek Paxico 21.0 31.0 33.0 : 38 42 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kansas River Topeka 26.0 27.0 44.0 : 5 6 5 5 <5 <5 :Soldier Creek Delia 26.0 26.5 29.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Topeka 4nw 29.0 34.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kansas River Lecompton 17.0 23.8 38.0 : 12 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 Lawrence 18.0 20.0 29.0 : 14 21 6 6 <5 <5 :Wakarusa River Lawrence 4s 23.0 25.0 45.0 : 7 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Republican River Scandia 10.0 13.0 15.0 : 14 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Buffalo Creek Jamestown 16.0 19.0 35.0 : 23 20 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Republican River Concordia 15.0 18.0 30.0 : 8 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Elk Creek Clyde 14.0 22.0 36.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Republican River Clay Center 15.0 21.0 28.0 : 41 27 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Solomon River Glasco 22.0 25.0 34.0 : 28 23 17 14 <5 <5 Minneapolis 26.0 30.0 38.0 : 8 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Salt Creek Ada 18.0 19.0 24.0 : 14 21 12 19 <5 <5 :Solomon River Niles 24.0 28.0 34.0 : 50 47 36 30 <5 <5 :Saline River Tescott 25.0 29.0 32.0 : 36 37 25 26 <5 <5 :Smoky Hill River Abilene Sand Spri 27.0 30.0 33.0 : 19 23 8 8 <5 <5 :Mud Creek Abilene 15.0 27.0 33.0 : 8 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Smoky Hill River Enterprise 26.0 27.0 40.0 : 46 43 40 39 <5 <5 :Marais Des Cygnes River Reading 19.0 21.0 45.0 : 56 54 48 49 <5 <5 Quenemo 17.0 24.5 40.5 : 61 60 29 37 <5 <5 :Salt Creek Lyndon 10.0 16.0 24.0 : 46 49 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Marais Des Cygnes River Ottawa 31.0 33.0 45.0 : 24 26 5 5 <5 <5 :Pottawatomie Creek Garnett 26.0 32.0 34.0 : 30 30 <5 <5 <5 <5 Lane 23.0 24.0 28.5 : 18 18 11 13 <5 <5 :Turkey Creek Seneca 8nw 21.0 23.5 40.0 : 27 16 5 <5 <5 <5 :Cottonwood River Emporia 20.0 24.0 32.0 : 33 27 15 13 <5 <5 :Neosho River Americus 26.0 27.0 40.0 : 7 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Emporia 3nw 19.0 19.5 30.5 : 22 9 20 8 <5 <5 Neosho Rapids 22.0 23.0 44.0 : 32 18 29 16 <5 <5 Burlington 27.0 40.0 45.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Leroy 23.0 23.0 38.0 : 9 8 9 8 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/15/2020 - 05/15/2020 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Big Blue River Marysville 14.7 18.0 21.3 26.8 31.6 33.6 39.0 :Little Blue River Hollenberg 3.0 4.5 6.2 9.8 14.0 15.8 19.4 :Mill Creek Washington 2.3 2.6 7.9 14.5 18.5 21.8 23.8 :Little Blue River Barnes 4.8 6.1 10.9 17.0 21.6 24.5 26.1 :Big Blue River Blue Rapids 16.9 20.1 23.0 30.8 34.4 41.8 44.8 :Black Vermillion River Frankfort 4.1 6.8 19.7 23.0 24.8 26.4 26.9 :Fancy Creek Randolph 0.8 0.9 4.1 5.8 7.9 12.2 13.8 :Chapman Creek Chapman 6.0 6.7 10.9 14.4 19.4 21.7 22.2 :Lyon Creek Junction City 8.9 9.9 11.4 14.3 21.1 29.8 33.4 :Smoky Hill River Junction City 4.1 5.2 8.2 12.6 18.4 24.7 25.6 :Kansas River Ft Riley 8.1 8.9 10.3 13.3 17.0 22.1 24.2 :Wildcat Creek Manhattan Scenic 4.0 4.7 5.6 6.7 9.8 14.6 19.6 :Kansas River Manhattan 8.6 9.7 10.9 13.7 16.5 19.8 21.2 Wamego 5.8 6.8 8.7 11.0 14.5 16.4 19.5 :Vermillion Creek Louisville 11.7 14.2 23.6 31.9 36.2 38.1 39.9 :Rock Creek Louisville 9.0 9.6 10.5 12.0 14.8 18.3 22.9 :Kansas River Belvue 7.8 8.9 10.8 12.7 15.6 17.4 19.6 :Cross Creek Rossville 9.8 12.0 13.7 16.0 21.3 23.9 24.9 :Mill Creek Paxico 6.7 7.2 9.7 15.6 25.5 28.1 29.5 :Kansas River Topeka 8.1 9.3 12.0 14.9 18.6 23.2 26.7 :Soldier Creek Delia 7.8 10.3 13.2 17.4 22.8 24.8 25.4 Topeka 4nw 2.7 4.9 7.6 9.4 14.7 19.2 21.6 :Kansas River Lecompton 6.2 7.1 9.1 11.2 14.0 18.0 20.2 Lawrence 13.0 13.5 14.5 15.5 17.0 19.0 21.2 :Wakarusa River Lawrence 4s 7.8 9.1 12.7 16.6 19.9 21.7 23.9 :Republican River Scandia 2.6 3.2 4.0 5.2 7.7 10.6 11.4 :Buffalo Creek Jamestown 1.0 1.0 5.6 12.4 15.4 18.3 18.7 :Republican River Concordia 6.1 6.5 7.6 9.2 12.5 14.4 16.2 :Elk Creek Clyde 4.7 4.7 6.0 7.1 7.8 9.0 11.3 :Republican River Clay Center 8.6 9.1 11.3 14.3 17.2 18.0 20.2 :Solomon River Glasco 10.0 10.0 10.0 16.7 24.5 27.9 29.9 Minneapolis 6.2 6.2 6.3 13.5 22.3 24.9 28.0 :Salt Creek Ada 4.7 4.7 5.5 10.4 14.3 19.8 20.7 :Solomon River Niles 12.2 12.2 13.9 24.1 29.2 29.7 30.0 :Saline River Tescott 6.5 6.9 9.3 17.8 29.0 31.0 31.9 :Smoky Hill River Abilene Sand Spri 9.6 11.5 15.1 20.7 24.5 29.2 31.1 :Mud Creek Abilene 1.6 3.6 5.5 8.9 11.7 14.2 15.5 :Smoky Hill River Enterprise 12.2 14.3 18.8 24.3 29.1 32.5 36.0 :Marais Des Cygnes River Reading 5.7 6.9 12.1 20.2 23.2 23.9 24.5 Quenemo 5.4 8.2 13.2 18.9 25.5 28.2 29.5 :Salt Creek Lyndon 3.1 3.8 5.8 9.6 13.1 14.1 15.0 :Marais Des Cygnes River Ottawa 10.4 14.0 17.8 26.6 30.9 32.2 33.4 :Pottawatomie Creek Garnett 9.9 16.2 22.3 24.2 26.5 28.2 28.8 Lane 7.4 10.3 13.1 19.5 22.5 24.6 25.9 :Turkey Creek Seneca 8nw 1.2 8.8 12.7 18.1 22.0 23.0 23.4 :Cottonwood River Emporia 4.7 7.1 9.5 16.3 21.8 25.4 25.9 :Neosho River Americus 5.8 6.3 10.2 12.9 21.0 25.4 26.7 Emporia 3nw 10.7 11.2 12.6 13.9 18.3 22.9 24.0 Neosho Rapids 5.3 6.8 9.7 16.5 24.5 27.7 29.2 Burlington 7.0 7.4 11.4 13.9 16.7 18.2 19.3 Leroy 4.5 5.7 10.5 13.9 17.7 22.3 27.2 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/15/2020 - 05/15/2020 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Big Blue River Marysville 13.4 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.0 :Little Blue River Hollenberg 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 :Mill Creek Washington 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 :Little Blue River Barnes 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 :Big Blue River Blue Rapids 16.1 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.6 :Black Vermillion River Frankfort 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 :Fancy Creek Randolph 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 :Chapman Creek Chapman 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 :Lyon Creek Junction City 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 :Smoky Hill River Junction City 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 :Kansas River Ft Riley 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.9 :Wildcat Creek Manhattan Scenic 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 :Kansas River Manhattan 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 Wamego 4.5 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 :Vermillion Creek Louisville 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.8 :Rock Creek Louisville 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.5 :Kansas River Belvue 6.5 6.3 6.1 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.5 :Cross Creek Rossville 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.3 :Mill Creek Paxico 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 :Kansas River Topeka 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 :Soldier Creek Delia 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.4 4.0 4.0 Topeka 4nw 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 :Kansas River Lecompton 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 Lawrence 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.9 11.9 :Wakarusa River Lawrence 4s 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 :Republican River Scandia 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 :Buffalo Creek Jamestown 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 :Republican River Concordia 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.2 :Elk Creek Clyde 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 :Republican River Clay Center 7.9 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.2 :Solomon River Glasco 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 Minneapolis 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 :Salt Creek Ada 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 :Solomon River Niles 9.0 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.0 8.0 :Saline River Tescott 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 :Smoky Hill River Abilene Sand Spri 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 :Mud Creek Abilene 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 :Smoky Hill River Enterprise 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 :Marais Des Cygnes River Reading 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 Quenemo 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 :Salt Creek Lyndon 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 :Marais Des Cygnes River Ottawa 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 :Pottawatomie Creek Garnett 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 Lane 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 :Turkey Creek Seneca 8nw 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Visit our web site weather.gov/top for more weather and water information. $$