Proposal Title: Advancing the Unified Forecast System Verification and Diagnostics Capability for Marine Applications
Principal Investigator: Tara Jensen (NCAR/RAL)
Co-Investigators:
Jason Levit (NOAA/EMC)
Joe Sienkiewicz (NOAA/OPC)
ABSTRACT:
We propose to adapt and implement the extended Model Evaluation Tools (METplus) verification and diagnostic framework to address the specialized needs of the Ocean Prediction Center’s (OPC) marine and cryosphere forecasting. As the Unified Forecast System (UFS) evolves into a fully coupled system, the developers and end-users require sufficient tools to diagnose and evaluate the system’s strengths and weakness prior to acceptance for implementation. The enhanced Model Evaluation Tools (METplus) has substantial functionality to evaluate aspects of weather over land, but is missing support for evaluation above and below the surface of oceans and across the cryosphere. The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) has stated a priority is to develop a verification capability to assist their forecasters’ participation in EMC’s Model Evaluation Group (MEG) evaluation of the evolving UFS (Sienkiewicz, 2019, personal communication). This project would work to address the needs of both OPC and the MEG by enhancing METplus to include support for critical marine and cryosphere observation sources and develop examples for use within EMC, OPC, and the marine and cryosphere community. Of particular interest are the UFS predictions relevant to OPC’s mission including forecasting of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) mandated surface wind warnings, cyclones, waves, precipitation, and sea ice characteristics. Providing both EMC and OPC the same useful evaluation tools will allow the Centers to work collaboratively on improving the representation of ocean weather. Feedback and subject matter expertise from OPC forecasters on critical areas will facilitate EMC improvements on atmosphere-ocean coupling.
The project will begin by incorporating EMC’s marine verification capability into METplus to provide support for observational datasets (e.g. buoys, sea surface temperature, profiles of temperature and salinity, wave heights, gulf-stream and deep ocean currents, and sea-ice fraction) and unique grids (e.g. tri-polar) available for diagnostics studies. Also, the project will complete the initial efforts to replicate EMC’s extra-tropical verification capability in METplus. NCAR scientists and engineers will work with EMC and OPC to develop METplus use-cases for evaluation of the evolving coupled UFS.
The proposed project will address the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) Program Priorities (1a and b) by providing METplus-based strategies and process-oriented diagnostics to improve forecasting across scales and applications and (3g) by improving prediction of Arctic clouds, sea ice, oceans through community-supported verification and validation techniques.
