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43rd NOAA Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop 23-25 October 2018, Santa Barbara, CA Climate Prediction S&T Digest |
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CONTENTS 1. IMPROVED UNDERSTANDING OF THE COUPLED ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN CLIMATE SYSTEM by Rong Fu, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, UCLA; Nelon Fernando, Sudip Chakraborty Mechanisms for the formation of super El Niños by Tim Li, University of Hawaii; by Charles Jones, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA Enhanced ocean monitoring products using ensemble ocean reanalyses by Yan Xue, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP; C. Wen, A. Kumar, E. Becker by Arun Kumar, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP; Mingyue Chen Water vapor budget in atmospheric rivers: A multi-model evaluation by Bin Guan, Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, UCLA; Duane E.Waliser, and F. Martin Ralph Using the onset dynamics to understand the ENSO complexity by Jin-Yi Yu, University of California, Irvine, CA Responses of global atmospheric circulation to climate indices based on APCC hindcast data by Daeun Jeong, APEC Climate Center, Busan, South Korea; Yun-Young Lee by A-Young Lim, APEC Climate Center, Busan, South Korea; Young-Mi Min, Suryun Ham Recent slow melt of Arctic summer sea ice due to tropical Pacific SST changes by Ian Baxter, University of California - Santa Barbara; Qinghua Ding, and Axel Schweiger Developing an experimental week 3-4 severe weather outlook for the United States by Hui Wang, Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA; Alima Diawara, Arun Kumar, and David DeWitt 2. IDSS-IMPACT DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES Towards increased utilization of weather forecast products in agriculture by Aston Chipanshi, Agroclimate, Geomatics and Earth Observation, Science & Technology Branch, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada; Mark Berry, Marilee Pregitzer and Hai Lin Development of an hourly analysis of surface air temperature over the global land by Yutong Pan, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, and Innovim, LLC; Pingping Xie Evaluation week3/4 forecast for Canadian GEPS by Qin Zhang, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP; Liwei Jia, Adam Allgood, Dan Collins and Jon Gottschalck Subseasonal tropical cyclone prediction at CPC: A new forecasting tool for weeks 1-4 by Lindsey N. Long, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, and Innovim, LLC 3. PROSPECTS FOR IMPROVED UNDERSTANDING, PREDICTION, AND SIMULATION OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY The influence of tropical forecast errors on higher latitude predictions (INVITED) by Juliana Dias, University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/ESRL/PSD; George Kiladis, and Maria Gehne Improve CFS week 3~4 precipitation and 2m temperature forecasts with neural network technique by Yun Fan, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP; Chung-Yu Wu, Jon Gottschalck, and Vladimir Krasnopolsky Dynamical and thermodynamical influences of the maritime continent on ENSO evolution by Tuantuan Zhang, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China; Bohua Huang, Song Yang, Junwen Chen, and Xingwen Jiang Recent Developments and Ongoing Challenges in Operational Seasonal Prediction at CPC by Stephen Baxter, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP Uncertainties in the El Niño response of precipitation over the US west coast by Mingyue Chen, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP; Arun Kumar How well do the climate model simulate the internal variability in Arctic sea ice decline by Pengfei Zhang, University of California at Santa Barbara; Qinghua Ding, Michelle L'Heureux, Kirstin Harnos, Nathaniel Johnson, and Mitch Bushuk by Hu Yamin, Guangdong Climate Center, Guangzhou, China; Si Dong, and Liu Yanju The skills of the probabilistic forecast for meteorological drought over the United States by Li Xu, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, and Innovim LLC., Greenbelt, Maryland; Kingtse C. Mo Evaluation of the national water model for potential application in the NLDAS drought monitor by Jesse Meng, Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, and IMSG 4. OBSERVATION, PREDICTION AND ATTRIBUTION OF RECENT HIGH IMPACT WEATHER AND CLIMATE EVENTS, AND IMPLICATION FOR EXTREME PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES, HEAT/COLD WAVES, DROUGHTS AND WILDFIRES Change in the leading mode of North America's wintertime stationary eddies (INVITED) by Yu-Tang Chien and Simon S-Y Wang, Dept. Plants, Soils and Climate, Utah State University, Logan, UT Overview of the 2017-18 La Niña and El Niño Watch in mid-2018 by Michelle L'Heureux, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP Operational probabilistic drought prediction to improve the seasonal drought outlook by Kingtse Mo, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP; Li Xu Predictability of U.S. Northern Great Plains summertime precipitation extremes by Andrew Hoell, NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division; Klaus Wolter, Flavio Lehner, Judith Perlwitz, and Jon Eischeid The Evolution and Status of the Northern Plains Drought and the Ongoing Southern Drought by Muthuvel Chelliah, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP by Laifang Li, Duke University; Raymond W. Schmitt, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, Adwait Sahasrabhojanee, Chi Zhang, and Qiuhong Tang The Floods in Equatorial East Africa during MAM 2018 rainfall season by Wassila M. Thiaw, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP; P. H. Kamsu-Tamo, and E. Bekele by Tom Murphree, Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; Emily Szasz, and Kellen Jones Flash drought characteristics and prediction by L. Gwen Chen, Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA; Jon Gottschalck, Rich Tinker, Adam Hartman, David Miskus, and Anthony Artusa by Jiwoo Lee, Program for climate model diagnosis and intercomparison (PCMDI), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); Kenneth R. Sperber, Peter J. Gleckler, C. J. W. Bonfils, and Karl E. Taylor by Kazuto Takemura, Tokyo Climate Center, Japan Meteorological Agency; Akihiko Shimpo The 2018 US heat season and the performance of the SEHOS forecasting tool at the CPC by Evan Oswald, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, and Innovim, LLC Characterizing impact of concurrent hot and dry spell events across the crucial breadbasket regions by Ariel Avgi and Ehsan Najafi, NOAA Center for Earth System Sciences and Remote Sensing Technologies (NOAA-CREST), CUNY CREST Institute, New York 5. IMPROVING MODELS, FORECASTS AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SETS Joined CanSIPS-CFSv2 seasonal forecasts by Marko Markovic, Environment and Climate Change, Canada An Assessment of Prediction and Predictability of NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) by Yuejian Zhu, Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP The Development of the next NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) by Xiaqiong Zhou, Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP; Yuejian Zhu and Dingchen Hou Toward improving short-lead monthly forecast by Peitao Peng, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP; Mike Halpert, Stephen Baxter and Mike Charles by Christopher Cox, CIRES/NOAA; Robert S. Stone, David C. Douglas, Diane Stanitski, and Michael R. Gallagher Water in the Arabian Peninsula by Muge Komurcu, Center for Global Change Science Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Adam Schlosser CWB CFS one-tier hindcast analysis and forecast verification by Tzu-Yu Wu, Meteorology Research and Development Center, Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan, and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Central University, Taiwan; Hann-Ming Henry Juang, Yun-Lan Chen, Pang-Yen Liu, Shin-I Lin, Jen-Her Chen , and Mong-Ming Lu by Daniel Barandiaran Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, and Innovim, LLC by Jiayu Zhou, Office of Science and Technology Integration, NOAA/NWS; David DeWitt Understanding the space-varying trends in global extreme precipitation by Saman Armal, Department of Civil Engineering, NOAA-Cooperative Center for Earth System Sciences and Remote Sensing Technologies, Center for Water Resources and Environmental Research, City University of New York (City College), New York; Reza Khanbilvardi
APPENDIX 2018 CDPW Photo Album (Click "Get Macromedia Flash" to view the album.)
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