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40th NOAA Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop |
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26-29 October 2015, Denver, CO |
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Climate Prediction S&T Digest |
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PDF Download |
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CONTENTS OPENING ADDRESS Charting a path forward at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center by David DeWitt 1. 2015 CLIMATE OVERVIEW An overview of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since 2014 by Michelle L'Heureux The faucet: Informal attribution of the May 2015 record-setting Texas rains by John W. Nielsen-Gammon 2. DROUGHT / PLUVIAL by S.-Y. Simon Wang, Yen-Heng Lin, Robert R. Gillies, Kirsti Hakala, and Lawrence E. Hipps Simulated U.S. drought response to interannual and decadal Pacific SST variability by Robert Burgman and Youkyoung Jang Reconciling seasonal droughts and landfalling tropical cyclones in the southeastern US by Vasu Misra and Satish Bastola Flash droughts over the United States by Kingtse C. Mo and Dennis P. Lettenmaier The 2011 great flood in Thailand: Climate diagnostics and implications from climate change by Parichart Promchote, S.-Y. Simon Wang, and Paul G. Johnson 3. DIAGNOSTICS AND PREDICTION OF HIGH IMPACT EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS New measure of forecast uncertainty for the North American Multi-Model Ensemble by Qin Zhang, Yuejian Zhu, Hong Guan , Jon Gottschalck, Jin Haung, Huug van den Dool, Emily Becker, and Li-Chuan Chen Forecasting temperature extremes with the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) by Emily J. Becker, Huug van den Dool, Qin Zhang, and Li-Chuan Chen by Flavio Lehner, Clara Deser, and Laurent Terray What drove tropical and North Pacific and North America climate anomalies in 2014/15 winter? by Peitao Peng, Arun Kumar and Zeng-Zhen Hu by Junmei Lü, Yun Li, Panmao Zhai, Junming Chen, and Tongtiegang Zhao A revised real-time multivariate MJO index by Ping Liu, Qin Zhang, Chidong Zhang, Yuejian Zhu, Marat Khairoutdinov, Hye-Mi Kim, Courtney Schumacher, and Minghua Zhang Using the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules to Generate Long-Range Forecasts II: Case Studies by Joseph S. Renken, Joshua Herman, Daniel Parker, Travis Bradshaw, and Anthony R. Lupo The 2014 Primera drought over Central America by Miliaritiana Robjhon, and Wassila Thiaw Impact of large-scale circulation on precipitation events in the Mediterranean region by Monika Barcikowska and Sarah Kapnick by Mong-Ming Lu, Yin-Ming Cho, and Meng-Shih Chen Intraseasonal tropical storm prediction in the NCEP CFSv2 45-day forecasts by Lindsey N. Long, Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, and Stephen Baxter 4. PREDICTION OF ENSO AND ITS REMOTE IMPACTS by Li-Chuan Chen, Huug van den Dool, Emily Becker, and Qin Zhang by Jieshun Zhu, Arun Kumar, and Bohua Huang Global ENSO ocean wave trends during the last 30 years by Schaler R. Perry and Mark Willis ENSO and seasonal rainfall variability over the Hawaiian and US-affiliated Pacific islands by Luke He and Pacific Climate Team 5. THE EVOLUTION OF CLIMATE DIAGNOSTICS AND PREDICTION OVER THE PAST 40 YEARS Evolution of ENSO prediction over the past 40 years by Anthony G. Barnston Climate extremes past and present: A 40-year perspective by Henry F. Diaz by Wassila M. Thiaw, Vadlamani B. Kumar, Endalkachew Bekele, Nicholas S. Novella, Miliaritiana Robjhon, Thomas D. Liberto, and Steven Fuhrman Approaches for estimating seasonal predictability: Where are we with current estimates? by Arun Kumar and Martin Hoerling by Y. Xue, C. Wen, A. Kumar, M. Balmaseda, Y. Fujii, G. Vecchi, G. Vernieres, O. Alves, M. Martin, F. Hernandez, T. Lee, D. Legler, D. DeWitt 6. PREDICTION / ATTRIBUTION OF ARCTIC CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND LINKAGES TO LOWER LATITUDES Prediction of Arctic sea ice melt date as an alternative parameter for local sea ice forecasting by Thomas W. Collow, Wanqiu Wang, and Arun Kumar 7. TOPICS RELATED TO PREDICTABILITY AND STRATEGIES FOR PREDICTION A NMME-based hybrid prediction system for Atlantic hurricane season activity by Daniel S. Harnos, Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, Hui Wang by Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, and William J. Merryfield An analysis of predictability of seasonal atmospheric variability using NMME models by Bhaskar Jha, and Arun Kumar Comparison of warm season North American precipitation variability observations to CFSv2 by Kirstin J. Harnos and Scott J. Weaver Feedback attributions of the climate difference in the muted and the accelerated warming periods by Yana Li, Xiaoming Hu, Song Yang, Ming Cai, and Yi Deng by Wei Wei, Renhe Zhang, Min Wen, and Song Yang Synthesis and integration: Challenges facing the next generation operational CFS by Jiayu Zhou, Jin Huang, Annarita Mariotti, Dan Barrie, James L. Kinter III, and Arun Kumar 8. CLIMATE SERVICES AND DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS Climate information needs for hazard mitigation by Nancy Selover, Hana Putnam, Nalini Chhetri, and Kenneth Galluppi Crop yield outlooks under extreme weather: lessons learnt from Canada by Aston Chipanshi, Yinsuo Zhang, Dongzhi Qi, and Nathaniel Newlands A Seasonal Rainfall Performance Probability Tool for Famine Early Warning Systems over Africa by Nicholas Novella and Wassila Thiaw APPENDIX |
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