National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Overview

A slow moving storm system brought several waves of heavy rainfall to the region from the early morning of December 26th into the morning of December 28th. Storm total rainfall amounts of 5-12" were common across the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas. The heaviest amounts occurred across southwestern Missouri near the Interstate 44 corridor where localized rainfall amounts exceeded a foot.

These rainfall amounts resulted in historic flooding across the region. Flash flooding occurred across widespread areas from the 26th through the 28th. Numerous rivers also reached major flooding levels with several rivers and creeks reaching all-time record highs. Hundreds of low water crossings were also flooded with major highways and interstates flooded at times. Significant structural damages and losses have also been reported throughout the region.

A slow moving very dynamic storm system set up to the southwest of the Missouri Ozarks with a frontal system initially setting up across the region.  Gulf moisture from the south and Pacific moisture from the southwest aided in bringing in moisture values which were nearly twice the normal values for this time of year.  In addition, there was enough instability for stronger thunderstorms to develop.  Because of the upper level pattern orientation, storms trained across the same areas throughout the event, particularly along the region of the interstate 44 corridor, not just in the Missouri Ozarks, but up into the St. Louis area as well. 

Synoptic models really did not alter from this message for a good week in advance of the system hitting the area and continued to show six to eight inches or more of rainfall affecting areas around the I-44 corridor throughout the week.

That kind of rainfall in just a short time period would have likely flooded almost any time of the year, but a couple of other antecedent conditions led to this being an historic event.

First, we have been in this broad southwest flow upper level pattern for a couple of months, which has brought several significant heavy rain events to the region during November and December.  This in turn has led to very high ground moisture content prior to the onset of this event.  Secondly, while the ground was not frozen (which would have made problems even worse), there is a significant lack of vegetation this time of year which would help to soak up some of the rainfall and ground moisture.  So most of the rainfall after the first half inch to inch of rain became runoff and led to some record breaking flooding across the area.

 

Image
Sfc map evoluton
nws logo Media use of NWS Web News Stories is encouraged!
Please acknowledge the NWS as the source of any news information accessed from this site.
nws logo