Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

895

FXUS63 KSGF 150504

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1204 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Dry conditions will occur today through Wednesday bringing the

  potential for an elevated fire risk for fuels that have not

  greened up yet this spring each day.



- A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible (35-45%)

  late Wednesday into Thursday. Not all locations will be

  affected.



- Warm and breezy conditions return to the region on Thursday

  with highs in the 80s and southerly wind gusts up to around

  35 mph.



- Unsettled weather conditions look to develop Friday into the

  weekend with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms as

  well as heavy rain possible at times. There are still

  questions on the exact track and timing of the system.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025



Most of the clouds have cleared out now that the cold front has

moved through earlier this morning. Today has been pleasant

especially since we have a drier air mass in place which has brought

down dewpoints into the 30s which is a nice break from what we felt

on Sunday. Though, highs will still reach the upper 60s to lower 70s

by this afternoon. Tonight will be cooler as well with clear

skies and lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.



As for Tuesday, the dry air mass really settles in bringing RH

values down to 20-25% across the area with northwesterly wind gusts

up to 20 mph. Elevated fire weather danger could be a concern

especially for areas east of Highway 65 or for areas that haven`t

quite fully greened up yet. Otherwise, expect another nice spring

day with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 60s and lows

in the upper 30s to lower 40s.



&&



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025



A pattern change will occur throughout the day on Wednesday as upper

level high pressure pushes into the region. Winds become southerly

by Wednesday morning helping to slowly usher in moisture for the end

of the week. There will also be a warm front draped over the area

which will conducive for a bit of lift to occur in the warm sector.

Therefore, we have some low-end POPs (20-30%) over central MO which

coincides nicely with the Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook from SPC

which shows general thunder over those areas. Though, there will be

a cap in place during the day Wednesday that may limit any stronger

convection from occurring. There may be a few rumbles of thunder

through the day if the cap is able to be broken, but the better

chances for stronger storms will occur overnight Wednesday into

Thursday when the POPs increase to 35-45% over central MO. Soundings

and MUCAPE values look a bit better at 400-800 J/kg, but the severe

threat for this event is still low at this time.



Thursday will be windy as that pressure gradient tightens ahead of

surface low moving through the Central Plains. Expect southerly wind

gusts up to 35 mph with a few gusts possibly reaching 40 mph

especially near the I-49 corridor. The warm front will also allow

our high temperatures to soar towards the end of the week. Highs

will be in the 80s again for Thursday and Friday with dewpoints

climbing back into the mid 50s making it feel a bit too much like

summer.



Another front will move into our area later Friday into Saturday.

That front will then stall over the state for most of the weekend

until a surface low pushes it out of the area on Sunday. This low

pressure system will bring a cold front as well, though, model

guidance differs on exact timing and track of the system. There

is potential for strong to severe storms to occur across the

area along with locally heavy rainfall, but the details will be

dependent on the track/timing and structure of the system. What

we do see is that a moist air mass will be in place with model

PWATs near 1.5" which is well above our 90th percentile for this

time of year (1.13") and leans more towards our daily max

(1.41"). This means that the atmosphere will be able to hold

quite a bit a moisture and will be conducive for heavy rainfall

where these storms do occur. Right now, model guidance is

showing the higher rainfall totals over SW MO with a 20-25%

chance of seeing >3" of rain. Still a bit too early to narrow

down the exact locations and amounts of highest rainfall totals.

We`ll continue to monitor the system as it gets closer.



The placement of the front will also impact temperatures this

weekend, if the front remains to the north, the warmer conditions

would remain into the weekend with the front moving highs in the 60s

would be more likely this weekend.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1202 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025



VFR conditions through the TAF period. Northwest winds will

increase after 12Z, occasionally gusting up to 20 kt,

particularly at the SGF site. Winds calm after 00Z.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Soria

LONG TERM...Soria

AVIATION...Didio