Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

114

FXUS63 KSGF 201646

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1046 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Anomalously cold temperatures continue through Tuesday. Daily

  highs in the upper teens to 20s. Overnight lows in the single

  digits to lower teens.



- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect with wind chills as low

  as -5 to -15 degrees. This will create dangerously cold

  conditions for outdoor activities and sensitive groups.



- Mostly dry conditions ahead, with precipitation chances less

  than 10% through Friday. Temperatures return closer to normal

  (upper 30s to 40s) through mid to late week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 217 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025



A cold area of surface high pressure now over the Ozarks will

remain in place today with highs this afternoon in the upper

teens to middle 20s, which is 20 to 25 degrees below average for

this time of year. Winds will be light into this evening but

will begin to increase during the late evening and overnight.



In addition to the cold air the region will remain dry today

with a very dry airmass measured by upper air sounding from 00z.

The airmass only showed 0.05 inches of moisture. This is below

the 10th percentile for this time of year. With that said, some

of the models are spitting out some flurries of light

precipitation. At this point however, if a flake or two of snow

falls that would be more than expected.



For tonight temperatures will fall into the single digits with

portions of central Missouri falling into the 0 to -5 degree

range. The combination of lows in the single digits through

Tuesday morning and increasing winds, thanks to an approaching

airmass, will produce minimum wind chills from 0 to -15 degrees

by Tuesday morning. With the potential for these very cold wind

chills, a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued from Midnight

tonight through noon Tuesday.



&&



.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 217 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025



Tuesday night-Wednesday: The upper level pattern will begin to

shift and become slightly more zonal Tuesday night with surface

low pressure moving across the northern plains and a cold front

trailing across the plains. Ahead of the front, winds will

increase but the southerly direction will bring the beginnings

of a warming trend to the region for the middle of the week with

highs in the middle to upper 30s Wednesday.



Thursday-Saturday: The upper-level trough and surface features

then shift east of the region with mid-level height rises

building into the area through the end of the week and into the

weekend. This will support a warming trend through mid to late

week, including temperatures above freezing. The warm up will

be accompanied by breezy southerly winds around 20 to 25 mph.

The gradual warming of temperatures to near average continues

through the end of the week and into the weekend, with highs

pushing into the upper 30s and lower 40s by Friday. The region

will remain dry through the end of the week.



By the weekend, an active southwest flow pattern digs a trough

across the western CONUS. Ensemble guidance does bring rain

chances into the area late Saturday into Sunday, though there

remains uncertainties on the timing and location of highest

precipitation chances. Current expectations remain 10-30%

chances for precipitation. The precipitation should be rain as

temperatures are forecast to reach near average to a few

degrees above average in the 40s for the weekend.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1045 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025



Clouds will continue to move across the region this afternoon

into tonight, generally remaining in the VFR range. There could

be a brief period of some MVFR ceilings later this afternoon

into this evening but overall confidence is low at this time. A

few flurries could also be possible late this afternoon into

this evening, but a drier air mass will limit this potential

across southwestern MO with the better potential west of the

area. Winds will be out of the northwest generally below 10kt

through the TAF period.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST

     Tuesday for KSZ073.

MO...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST

     Tuesday for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-089>092-094>097-

     102>105.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Hatch

LONG TERM...Hatch

AVIATION...Wise