Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

677

FXUS63 KSGF 260734

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

234 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- High confidence in above normal temperatures through the week,

  with temperatures approaching 10 to 15 degrees above normal by

  late week. Highs in the 70s to low 80s.



- Shower and thunderstorm chances (40-65%) return late week into

  the weekend. There is still a good deal of uncertainty, but

  confidence is increasing in severe weather occuring somewhere

  across the central Plains this weekend.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025



The Missouri Ozarks continues to be under northwesterly flow

aloft as an upper level ridge builds over the western CONUS and

a trough is located over the Great Lakes Region. There were a

few radar echoes earlier this morning, however with the

extensive dry air in place, much of that activity never reached

the ground, with the exception of a few sprinkles in our

northeast, as noted on the Vichy ASOS.



Surface high pressure is progged to move through Missouri

throughout the day today, which will keep winds fairly light and

variable. As a result, any fire weather concerns will remain

limited despite the dry conditions. With only a 4 degree

difference between the NBM 25th and 75th percentiles, there`s

high confidence in afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper

60s (northeast of Hwy 60 towards central Missouri) and the 70s

(along and south of Hwy 60, increasing to the upper 70s closer

to the MO/AR border).



Tonight will yield temperatures in the upper 40s (eastern

Ozarks) to mid 50s (west of Hwy 65). Moisture will begin

filtering into the area ahead of the next system, allowing for

some chances (10-20%) of isolated showers and thunderstorms

late tonight (after midnight). However the better chances

(40-50%) look to be during the day on Thursday as the area gets

deeper into the warm sector. Afternoon highs are expected to

climb into the upper 70s to low 80s, with only a 4 degree

difference between the interquartile spread leading to fairly

high confidence.



With the warm air and moisture advecting into the area,

instability will increase throughout the morning and afternoon

on Thursday, with models showing MUCAPE values between 750-1500

J/kg. Additionally, ensemble mean PWAT values increase to 1.0

inches. As a 40-45kt low level jet moves across the area, the

energy and instability could lead to convection, with the better

chances (40-50%) generally north of Hwy 60 towards central

Missouri.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025



A shortwave trough pushes across the southern Plains towards the

lower Mississippi Valley on Friday, with some upper level

energy reaching our southern CWA. As a result, showers and

thunderstorms will be possible (30-40%) beginning Friday

afternoon, with chances (30-50%) shifting towards south central

Missouri Friday night.



Attention in the long term focuses on this weekend, as the large

scale pattern shifts to southwesterly flow aloft, with a deeper

shortwave trough pushing through the western CONUS. Large

uncertainties still exist with regards to the timing/advancement

of this system. As noted in the previous forecast, the moisture,

instability, and lift will all be present as a surface low

develops on the leeside of the Rockies and drags a cold front

through the region Sunday. A big determining factor in where the

severe threat will set up remains with the timing of this

system. A slower progression will allow for the entire area to

have severe chances, whereas a faster progression will lead to

the easter CWA seeing that severe threat. Currently going with

40-65% pops, however we`ll need to hone in on this as we get

closer to this time period and confidence increase.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1151 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025



VFR conditions and light/variable winds are expected through the

TAF period. Just beyond the period, southerly winds will pick

up, with gusts up to 20-25kts after 12Z Thursday.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Melto

LONG TERM...Melto

AVIATION...Melto