Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

136

FXUS63 KSGF 181147

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

547 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A low pressure system will bring rain showers and a few

  thunderstorms along with windy conditions to the area

  tonight into Monday evening.



- Some record warm low temperatures will be possible on Monday.

  See climate section for details.



- Below normal temperatures and dry conditions will occur across

  the area during the middle and end of the week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 139 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024



Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and

upper level analysis show a deep upper low just west of El Paso

Texas with a broad area of divergent southwest flow aloft ahead of

the low which extended into our forecast area. A secondary shortwave

and speed max was pushing into the central great basin region out

west. Lower in the atmosphere, a broad low level jet of 35 to 45 kts

was located over the southern plains into the lower MS valley. The

combined lift was aiding in a northward moving area of showers over

eastern Oklahoma into much of northern Arkansas that was beginning

to lift northward into southern Missouri. More intense convection

was confined mainly to the surface low/front over western TX into

the TX panhandle region. Mild temperatures were occurring across the

forecast area with midnight readings in the low to mid 60s.

Dewpoints have shot up into the upper 50s to low 60s; up from the

40s 24 hours ago. 00z SGF sounding showed PW values of 1.14 which is

above the 90th percentile for this time of year.



Current time through tonight:



Precipitation and severe weather chances: Current area of showers

over eastern OK and northern AR will continue to lift north and

spread across most of the CWA during the current overnight hours

into early Monday morning. Highest rain totals with this batch of

rain will occur over the western CWA where an inch to inch and a

half may occur. Much of the area should see a quarter to half inch

with this first batch. Can`t rule out some embedded thunderstorms

with this area of rain, but it should mainly be showers. After this

first round of showers lifts north through the area this morning,

there will likely be a dry period for much of the CWA. The low

pressure system will lift northeast into eastern KS by the late

morning and we may start to see some additional convection develop

over our western CWA by then.

There will be a very narrow corridor of limited instability this

afternoon into the early evening along the front that moves through

with the potential for a few stronger updrafts. Given the strong

pressure gradient and synoptic scale winds already in place over the

area, the stronger updrafts may produce some localized damaging wind

gusts. The tornado potential remains low despite the strong shear

with weak instability. This narrow band of convection will shift

east across the CWA during the afternoon into the mid evening hours.

Total QPF of 1-2" will be possible west of highway 65 with a half

inch to inch east of the highway for the storm event totals. This

may lead to some localized excessive rain and flooding, but

widespread flooding is not expected given the speed of the system.



Windy conditions and wind advisory: As the low lifts north across

eastern KS, the pressure gradient will be pretty tight across the

western CWA where we are showing NBM probabilities of 65-80% of

eclipsing our wind gust criteria for an advisory. So, we will be

issuing a wind advisory for much of the western half of the CWA from

17z-00z, where wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible.



Potential record warmest low temperatures today: The mild conditions

will continue the remainder of the overnight through today and

midnight tonight. Lowest temperatures throughout this period will be

in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees which will be close to or

exceed the record warmest lows for this date (see climate section

for details).



&&



.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 139 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024



The secondary upper level system which was currently pushing into

the west coast and central great basin will push into the central

CONUS on Tuesday and Tuesday night, however much drier air will be

moving into the area and the best lifting with the low pressure

system will remain well to the north of the area.

We will see a cool down in temperatures to below normal readings for

the remainder of the work week into the early part of the weekend

before we rebound to more normal readings for this time of year. Dry

conditions are expected through the remainder of the forecast period

after the current storm system moves through this evening.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 537 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024



Rain has moved through the area this morning with more to come

this afternoon. Rain has been heavy and has reduced

visibilities down to 2 SM at times. Ceilings have been mostly

IFR and will bounce back and forth between MVFR/IFR for most of

the day. There have been a few strikes of lightning just

northeast of SGF as well. Have added VCTS for the next couple of

hours for that TAF site. SGF and BBG will see a break in the

rain here by late morning. JLN will have showers lingering

around for most of the day off and on. Southerly winds will

become gusty by late morning into the afternoon with gusts up to

35 knots. JLN and SGF are in a Wind Advisory until 00z. The

cold front will come through this afternoon bringing

thunderstorms. Added PROB30 groups for TSRA a few hours this

afternoon just before 00z. Rain exits after sunset with skies

clearing behind the front and VFR ceilings returning.



&&



.CLIMATE...

Issued at 139 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024



Date /Station   Record Warmest     Forecast Lowest

                    Lows            Temperatures



Monday 11/18



Springfield        59/1942               59



Joplin             64/1942               58



West Plains        53/1991               58



Vichy              58/1899               57



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening

     for KSZ073-097-101.

MO...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening

     for MOZ055-066>068-077>080-088>091-093-094-101-102.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Lindenberg

LONG TERM...Lindenberg

AVIATION...Soria

CLIMATE...Lindenberg