Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

207

FXUS63 KSGF 141921

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

221 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Patchy fog will be possible in valleys and low areas at times

  tomorrow morning.



- Temperatures warm to above average for the remainder of the

  work week.



- Thunderstorm chances return late Friday into Saturday night.



- More seasonable temperatures to begin next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025



An upper level ridge of high pressure was in place over the

region and will be linger over the area into Friday morning.

Partly cloudy skies were over the region with afternoon highs

around the 80 degree mark this afternoon and also again on

Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will cool into the middle 50s to

the lower 60s tonight. With light winds in place thanks to high

pressure, patchy areas of fog may develop in river valleys and

other low areas but is not expected to be widespread.



&&



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025



An upper level low along the coast of California will make its

way to the east through the end of the work week. This low will

move slowly northeast this week, finally lifting into the north

central plains and central Canada late Thursday night into

Friday morning. Trough Friday morning, quiet weather is expected

as the upper ridge and high pressure remains in control through

then.



As the upper level low moves northeast across the plains, the

ridge will be shunted off to the east. Highs will again warm

into lower to middle 80s on Friday as the ridge and warmer air

mass remains in place. Southwesterly winds will increase some on

Friday ahead of the system to the west. Winds could gusts to 20

to 30 mph at times on Friday.



With the ridge moving to the east, surface and upper level flow

will become southwesterly. This will allow for increased

moisture and instability to make its way into the Ozarks. A cold

front will then begin to make its way across the plains and into

the area Friday night through Saturday. Along with the trough

comes the potential for showers and thunderstorms as early as

Friday night but more likely Saturday into Saturday evening.

Models remain in good agreement in handling the upper level

trough and cold front moving through region this weekend, though

timing and storm mode still have some differences between the

ensemble model members.



Though a few members indicate a souther closed low in the upper

level pattern, more members are going with an open wave

solution. With this in mind, this would support a bit slower

frontal movement which may allow for more residence time for

rainfall. If this were to occur, a few locations might see a

short reprieve in the ongoing drought across the area.



With the slower frontal passage occurring later in the day on

Saturday, this would for allow better moisture return and

instability to move further north into the area bringing the

potential for some strong to severe storms to much of the area

on Saturday. There are other solution that are in between these

two which remain possible.



Regardless, current expectations are for shower and

thunderstorm chances across the Ozarks early as late Friday with

shower and storm chances lingering into Saturday evening and

night as a cold front moves through the region. The potential

for some severe storms across portions of the area remains

possible, with the more likely solutions though changes in track

and timing or which scenario ultimately develops will determine

the severe risk and where it may occur. Uncertainty remains on

the exact details due to the timing and track differences of the

upper level trough between the model members.



Cooler conditions will occur behind the front on Sunday with

highs in the 70s and even 60s across portions of the area on

Sunday. Temperatures then look to be more seasonable average for

the beginning of next week with highs in the middle 70s.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025



The combination of upper level ridging and surface high pressure

will keep flight conditions VFR tonight through Wednesday

morning. Light surface winds from 3-5mph will occur.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Hatch

LONG TERM...Hatch

AVIATION...Hatch