Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

551

FXUS63 KSGF 200743

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

143 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Morning wind chills today in the single digits and teens with

  a gusty northwest wind.



- Warming trend to above normal temperatures this weekend into

  early next week.



- Rain chances late Monday through Christmas as several waves of

  energy move through. Temperatures will remain warm enough to

  keep away any wintry precipitation.



&&





.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 143 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024



Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery

and upper level analysis show an amplified upper pattern over

the CONUS with an upper level trough shifting east of the area

into the Great Lakes/Ohio and Tennessee valley regions. High

amplitude flow out of Alberta and Saskatchewan and into the

plains and upper/mid Mississippi valley. This has brought a cold

front through about half the area as of midnight and we should

see gusty winds and dropping temperatures/wind chills behind the

front. Temperatures were ranging from the upper 20s in the far

northern CWA to the mid 40s in the far southern CWA ahead of the

front.



Through today: The upper level trough will continue to shift

east and we`ll remain in that strong northwest flow aloft.

Canadian cold high pressure will continue to build into the area

through the day with gusty northerly winds. Despite the expected

sunshine today, cold air advection will win out with highs

struggling in the 30s and morning wind chills in the single

digits to teens as northerly wind will gusty up to 30 mph at

times.



Tonight: Winds will diminish tonight as high pressure moves over

the area at the surface and we should see a clear sky that will

allow temperatures to dip into the low 20s. Some teens will be

possible in the low lying areas.



Saturday: We should see rising upper heights as the upper ridge

begins to shift eastward over the Rockies and high plains. Some

shortwave energy will move through during the morning, however a

dry air mass will be in place and no precipitation is expected

with this. The surface ridge will shift eastward and we`ll see

some southerly winds begin to develop. Sunshine is expected and

we should see the beginning of a warm-up take shape. Highs

should range from the upper 30s to mid 40s.





&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 143 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024



Rest of the weekend: An upper level shortwave in the northern

Rockies will continue to flatten out the upper ridging and will

shift into the northern plains on Sunday. Stronger low level

warm air advection will develop out ahead of this system and a

surface frontal system and we should see temperatures on Sunday

rise back into the mid 40s to low 50s for highs.



Active period for the upcoming holiday week: The main upper

level shortwave will continue to track east and well to the

north of the area, however a frontal system will move into the

area late Monday into Monday night and will then become more

stationary from west to east over the area. Meanwhile, a

secondary upper system will begin to develop a trough to our

west across the plains Monday night and potentially closing off

a low over the southern plains on Tuesday. Moisture should

increase ahead of the front and upper level energy for low end

rain chances late Monday, with much better rain chances(40-70%)

Monday night into Tuesday. Models seem pretty much in line

through Tuesday with this overall scenario. Temperatures look

warm enough for all rain with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s

and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Precipitation will likely

begin to exit to the east on Christmas morning, however models

are showing another system developing over the Rockies on

Christmas that will start to bring rain chances back into the

area Wednesday night into Thursday. Models are in less agreement

with the timing and placement of this next upper level system,

but temperatures still look warm enough for all rain for when it

does begin to precipitate.



Outlook for the Dec 27 - Jan 2 timeframe: There is still a

strong signal for warmer than normal temperatures and a lesser

signal for above normal precipitation. Normals for this time of

year are for highs in the low to mid 40s, lows in the mid 20s

and precipitation totals in the 0.52 -0.63".





&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1035 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2024



VFR through the period with a frontal passage occurring near 06z

tonight. Winds shift from the southwest to the northwest.

Northwesterly winds become gusty behind the front gusting up to

25 knots through the morning. Winds drop to around 10 knots for

the rest of Friday afternoon with skies clearing out.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Lindenberg

LONG TERM...Lindenberg

AVIATION...Soria