Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

300

FXUS63 KSGF 011032

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

532 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Showers and storms will continue to move east across the area

  the rest of the overnight hours ending from west to east this

  morning, mainly remaining north of I-44.



- Additional storms are expected to move into the area this

  afternoon into tonight. There is a Marginal (1 out 5) risk for

  severe storms west of Highway 65 and a Slight (2 out 5) risk

  for severe storms west of I-49 today and tonight.



- Storms are possible again on Thursday morning and afternoon,

  mainly east of I-49. There is a Marginal (1 out of 5) risk for

  severe storms east of Highway 65 Thursday.



- Another round of storms expected Friday evening into Saturday

  morning. There will be the potential for additional severe

  storms with this round especially northwest of I-44.



- Cooler temperatures will occur behind the front this weekend

  into early next week, as lows in the 30s are expected Sunday

  and Monday mornings.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026



A front is currently stalled across east central Kansas into

central Missouri early this morning. Showers and storms have

developed along the front in an area of uncapped MUCAPE. A few

stronger storms occurred across eastern Kansas but are weakening

as they move east as deep layer shear is on the weaker side

further to the east. A stronger storm is still possible early

this morning, but overall the risk is decreasing with the

currently activity. This activity will move east out of the

area later this morning. The storms have lined up from west to

east early this morning, with multiple storms tracking over the

same location. Localized heavy rainfall will occur where

training of storms are occurring. This activity will generally

remain north of I-44 closer to the front as a cap is in place

across southern Missouri currently.



An upper level shortwave trough will move east into the central

Plains by this evening. As the trough moves east the cap across

southern Missouri will start to weaken by late this morning

into this afternoon. Scattered storm development will be

possible across the area late this morning into the afternoon

hours. A few strong to severe storms with hail up to the size of

quarters will be possible with this activity, but deep layer

shear will still not be overly strong as the trough remains off

to the west area, so most storms will be non severe with this

activity. This activity should push east of the area by this

evening.



As the upper level trough moves towards/into the plains this

afternoon surface low pressure will lift to the northeast across

western Kansas/Nebraska and will push the front currently

across central Missouri back to the north. A dry line will push

across Kansas and Oklahoma. Storms will likely develop east of

the dry line this afternoon/evening. The front lifting north

into northern Missouri will extend back to the southwest across

eastern Kansas this afternoon/evening. Storm development will be

possible on the front across eastern Kansas too, coverage will

likely be less than to the southwest along the dry line. If

storms can develop across eastern Kansas they will move

northeast and could clip areas west of I-49 this evening. Large

hail to the size of golf balls and damaging winds will be the

main risk. Low level shear will increase this evening as a low

level jet develop, and could lead to a low tornado risk with

this activity this evening.



The storms that develop across Oklahoma will lift northeast this

evening and could push into the area late this evening and

continue into the overnight hours. Instability will weaken to

the east as the upper level trough remains to the west. The

storms will move off the surface boundary and Theta-E difference

ahead of the system will not be overly strong, so this could

limit a strong cold pool developing and therefore a line of

storms may be less likely as the front will stall and not keep

up with the storms. This activity may be more cluster in nature

as they move east into the area late this evening into the

overnight hours. There could be a strong to severe storm risk

with this activity with hail to the size of quarters and

damaging winds to 60 mph the main risk west of Highway 65

tonight. If a cold pool and line segments can develop there

could be a low spin up tornado risk with any surges to the

east/northeast within the line of storms. It is also possible

the storms weaken as the move into the area as they move out of

the better instability and further east away from the upper

level support.



Storms could be on going across the area Thursday morning. The

upper level shortwave trough will lift northeast into Iowa on

Thursday and will push the front into the area Thursday morning.

Instability will increase ahead of the front Thursday morning,

but a much drier air mass will be in place in the mid level of

the atmosphere and may limit storm develop across the front

across the western portions of the area. The front will move

east of Highway 65 in the afternoon hours and will start to

stall. Better moisture will be in place across the eastern

Ozarks and storm development will be possible east of Highway 65

if not east of Highway 63. The storms will move off the front

and be more scattered in nature. Large hail to the size of golf

balls and damaging winds will be the main risk. Low level shear

will start to increase in the evening hours but the storms will

likely be east of the area by then.



Another upper level trough will move east into the Plains by

Friday. The front that will move into the area will lift north

across the area Thursday evening and night as the trough moves

east. Additional scattered showers and storms will be possible

along the front Thursday evening and night as it lifts north

through the area.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026



The upper level trough will move east across the Plains Friday

night and across the region. As the trough moves east as could

front will move southeast into and across the area Friday

evening and night. A line of showers and storms will likely

develop along and behind the front as strong lift will occur

along the fast moving front. There will be the potential for

some strong to severe storms across the area Friday evening and

night. Damaging winds will be the main risk. Showers and a few

storms may linger behind the front Saturday morning but should

move east of the area by Saturday afternoon.



Cooler and dry conditions are expected behind the front this

weekend into early next week. Lows in the 30s are expected

Sunday and Monday mornings, with highs in the 50s on Sunday and

highs in the 60s early next week.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 532 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026



Showers and storms will continue to move east across areas north

of Highway 54 this morning. This activity will remain north of

the TAF sites. Scattered showers and storms will be possible

this afternoon. Another round of showers and storms will be

possible this evening across southeastern Kansas and far western

Missouri then to the east into the area tonight. Lower ceilings

and visibilities  will occur with the storms.



Outside the storms gusty southerly winds will occur today and

become more south to southeasterly tonight remaining gusty.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Wise

LONG TERM...Wise

AVIATION...Wise