Area Forecast Discussion


000
FXUS63 KSGF 020549
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1249 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally lower rain chances this afternoon and tonight and
  increasing on Thursday.

- The unsettled weather pattern will persist into the weekend
  and early next week with highest chances on Saturday.

- Temperatures will remain above average through at least the
  next seven days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor and upper
level analysis show upper level low pressure over Montana with a
large scale trough extending south of the low into the great
basin. Broad southwesterly flow was occuring ahead of the trough
from the desert southwest and into our forecast area. Surface
analysis has a weak surface boundary draped west to east across
southern Missouri. Temperatures were in the low to mid 70s and
dew points were in the mid 50s to low 60s. Some southwest to
northeast moving showers and thunderstorms were occurring from
south central Kansas into northwest Missouri.

Tonight - Thursday: Some upper level energy embedded in the
southwest to northeast flow and a northward moving frontal
boundary may contribute to some of that scattered convection
affecting our west and northwest portion of the CWA late this
afternoon into tonight. The majority of the moisture and
instability should remain west of our area though and the best
convection will remain west of the area.

The large scale upper trough will begin to lift negatively
tilted to the northeast on Thursday over the northern plains
into the upper Mississippi valley, with a surface front shifting
slowly east into the CWA. While instability does not look overly
impressive over the area, there will be an increase in the
moisture along with better jet dynamics and a surface front and
boundaries to support more widespread convection(60-85% chance).
The higher pops will be in the west which will limit
temperatures in the 70s while the east could see low to mid 80s
for highs. QPF amounts will be highly dependent on where the
best convective redevelopment in the afternoon can set up, which
will generally be along the eastward moving boundary. Highest
QPF totals are currently along with US 65 corridor where a
half inch to inch and a quarter will be possible. With all of
the recent rain late last week into the weekend, this could lead
to some additional flooding over the area. There is a marginal
risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms on Thursday with hail to
the size of quarters and 60 mph winds with the stronger
convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Precipitation chances will continue into Thursday night and most
of the activity should end to the east on Friday morning. After
a brief dry period Friday into Friday night, the next wave of
energy will bring additional shower and thunderstorm activity to
the area on Saturday and then another shortwave on Sunday with
additional chances of rain.

A deeper upper trough will push into the plains on Monday before
lifting negatively tilted to the northeast late Monday into
Monday night and should bring additional convection to the area
Monday night into Tuesday. SPC does have a 15% region
highlighted just to our west for the Monday day 6 outlook.

With the nearly daily chances of showers and thunderstorms
across the area and the recent heavy rainfall from the past week
that continues with elevated river levels, will need to monitor
for additional flooding in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR for the night until the convection to the west in Kansas
pushes east into Missouri by sunrise Thursday morning. Expect
scattered thunderstorms throughout the day with MVFR ceilings.
Heavy rain could reduce visibilities down to 3 to 4 SM at times
as well. Expect rain to taper off around Thursday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Soria