Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

828

FXUS63 KSGF 170527

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1227 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Scattered storms and the potential for flash flooding late

  this evening into the overnight hours, especially along and

  south of Interstate 44. Damaging winds and small hail with

  the most intense storms. Flood Watch in effect for areas along

  and east of Highway 65.



- Below average temperatures Wednesday into the weekend with dry

  conditions until Sunday.



&&



.MESOSCALE...

Issued at 800 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024



A cap remains in place early this evening which has limited

storm development across much of the area. The cap is weaker

across north central Arkansas where storms have developed. These

storms may clip portions of central Missouri south of a West

Plains to Alton line over the next few hours. Heavy rainfall

will occur with the storms and a few of the stronger storms

could be capable of wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the

size of pennies again with much of this risk remaining south of

the area through 10pm.



Later this evening (after 10pm) into tonight, MUCAPE values

around 2000J/kg will be in place across southern Missouri. As

the low level jet develops the MUCIN will weaken and with the

lift of the jet should allow scattered storms to start to

develop mainly south of I-44 again late this evening after 10pm.

This activity should then increase in coverage especially east

of Highway 65, may remain more scattered to the west, and slowly

move south through the area overnight as the front and upper

trough move through the region. Deep layer shear will be weaker

overnight (generally less than 20kt), so not expecting widespread

severe weather, but given the instability that will be in

place, there will still be the potential for wind gusts up to

60mph and hail up to pennies in a few of the stronger storms.



Heavy rainfall will also be possible with the storms overnight

as precipitable water values of 1.8 to near 2" will be in

place. Individual storm motion will be more to the east as the

whole system shifts south, therefore there will be the potential

for multiple storms tracking over the same locations. Where

this occurs there will be a localized flash flood risk generally

south of I-44 and especially east of Highway 65 where a Flood

Watch remains in effect until 7AM Wednesday morning.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024



Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: A wide range in temps

were observed across the area early this afternoon with low 70s

across central Missouri and 90 degrees in Branson. A Heat

Advisory will be cancelled shortly given the clouds. An outflow

boundary is currently laid out from about Pittsburg, KS to

Springfield to West Plains with cooler temps north of the

boundary. This boundary will be a key feature for this evenings

storms. This boundary was further south of the true effective

front that was just south of KC. An MCV/swirly was currently

seen on satellite spinning just east of Wichita, KS. 12z KSGF

sounding measured a strong cap in place along with high PW

values (1.7in).



This afternoon through Tonight: Expectations are that as the MCV

moves east into the area late this afternoon, we will see

development of showers and thunderstorms out ahead of it. Latest

guidance shows ML CAPE values of 2000-3000j/kg basically along

and south of the outflow boundary along with 25-30kts shear.

High clouds continue to inhibit further destabilization. 0-3km

thetaE- diffs are around 25-30C therefore damaging winds are the

most likely threat however given the shear we could see one or

two storms with hail to the size of quarters. Frequent lightning

and heavy rainfall rates will occur. Thunderstorm coverage and

intensity should increase after 5pm with peak severe intensity

in the 6pm-12am timeframe.



Will need to monitor the development of showers and

thunderstorms along the outflow boundary as they may move over

the same areas producing localized flash flooding. The low

level jet will nudge into the area late tonight and may interact

with the outflow boundary and effective front to produce

continued rain chances along and south of I-44. 12z HREF data

suggests pockets of 3-5 inches east/southeast of Springfield

with much less amounts (0.5-2 inches) outside of this. The

Flood Watch remains in effect along and east of Highway 65.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024



Wednesday: The front will be moving just south of the area

however there will be enough proximity that a few showers and

storms could linger into the morning for areas south of Highway

60 closer to the Arkansas border. NBM data suggests highs in

the 80s given the clouds and north winds.



Thursday through the weekend: Confidence continues to remain high

that much cooler temperatures will arrive underneath northwest

flow late in the week as 850mb temps drop back into the 10-15C

range and high pressure slides through. This will lead to highs

in the lower 80s and lows in the lower 60s. Friday morning looks

the coolest with some potential for morning lows in the 50s to

around 60! These values will be about 5-15 degrees below

average for mid July.



Rain chances look to remain less than 20

percent until Sunday. Ensemble clusters continue to suggest

higher rain chances with a upper level low moving in and precip

chances are now up to 40 percent for Sunday into Monday and

expect this to increase further over the coming days.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024



VFR for the next couple of hours before an MCS is forecast to

push through far southern MO bringing showers and thunderstorms.

Expect heavy rainfall in these showers that may lower

visibilities. MVFR/IFR ceilings will occur in and around

convection. Storms taper off near sunrise with VFR and light

northerly winds returning.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ057-058-068>071-

     079>083-090>092-095>098-103>106.



&&



$$



MESOSCALE...Wise

SHORT TERM...Burchfield

LONG TERM...Burchfield

AVIATION...Soria