Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

448

FXUS63 KSGF 211748

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1148 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills in the -10 to 0

  degree range this morning. Additional record lows broken.



- Gradual warming trend through this weekend, with high

  confidence in above normal temperatures early next week. This

  will support melting of the existing snowpack. Drier weather

  expected.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 230 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025



Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper

air analysis showed a pair of shortwaves to the north and west

of the area. One was across the Nebraska/Iowa border and the

other, stronger shortwave across Colorado. Surface high pressure

was moving over Missouri with light north winds. High clouds

were streaming in from the west and were causing temps to bounce

around. Low single digits below zero are being observed where

clearing is still occuring across areas east of Highway 65 with

single digits above zero elsewhere. Wind chills of 0 to -10 F

were also being observed. Several record lows have already

occurred for today and see the climate section below for the values.



Today: High pressure will continue sliding east through the day which

will begin to shift the winds around to the south and east.

High clouds will come and go at times today. The high clouds,

850mb temps still around -8C and snowpack will all act to keep

high temps below freezing however most areas will climb into the

lower to middle 20s. Coolest readings look to occur across the

northwest CWA where clouds will last longer. While lift does

increase from the incoming shortwave, forecast soundings show

significant dry air between 750-900mb which will likely limit

any precip. The one exception is across far southeast Kansas and

the Highway 54 corridor where enough forcing could cause a few

flurries late this afternoon and evening. The chance is less

than 20 percent and most locations will not experience them.



Tonight: While the area will see light south winds, existing

snow pack will keep temps on the colder side of guidance and

have trended down with lows in the single digits to around 10

degrees. Lack of deep moisture advection/stronger surface winds

over the snowpack should keep fog potential low and most

guidance does not develop fog.



Saturday: West to west northwest flow aloft will finally advect

some warmer 850mb temps into the area (-2 to 2C). With the sunny

skies, temps should finally break freezing, however did temper

highs down into the middle 30s for most areas given the existing

snow depth.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 230 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025



Sunday through Thursday: Ensembles are in decent agreement that

warmer air aloft will build into the area. Mean 850mb temps

climb into the 4-6C range Sunday and then into the 10-12C range

Monday. This warmer airmass will allow for temps to push 50

degrees on Sunday and then near 60 degrees for Monday given

latest NBM data. Very small spreads in the NBM data suggest high

confidence in this warming trend. Overnight lows also look to

increase above freezing beginning Monday therefore significant

melting should occur late in the weekend into early next week.

We will need to monitor for some fog potential Saturday night

and again Sunday night given the slightly stronger surface winds

over the melting snowpack however latest NBM data keeps mean

visibilities above 6 miles.



Ensembles suggest a shortwave will pass to our northeast Tuesday

with a dry frontal passage. Another shortwave will be quick to

drop down into the central plains Wednesday into Thursday. While

there appears to be slight timing issues, ensembles suggest the

bulk of the shortwave energy will pass just northeast of the

area with a front moving through our area. Latest NBM and LREF

precip chances are at 20-30 percent with the highest chances

northeast of Springfield. Moisture may also be a limiting factor

with this system given its progressive nature from the northwest.

Overall temperatures will be at or slightly above average

Tuesday through Thursday.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1129 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025



VFR expected to persist through the TAF period. A surface high

pressure sits over central Missouri, with light winds across the

region. Winds may be more variable on a local scale this

afternoon as the high moves east, but generally will remain

light (around or less than 5 kts) and prevailingly southerly

through tonight. A layer of low-level clouds may form around

5kft overnight, but no impacts to flight categories are

expected. There is a low chance of freezing fog in the early

Saturday morning hours, but confidence in widespread freezing

fog is below 30% and thus has been left out of the TAF at this

time.



&&



.CLIMATE...

Issued at 230 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025



Normal high temperatures for this time of year are in the 48-53

degree range. Normal low temperatures for this time of year are

in the 28-32 degree range.



Record Low Temperatures:



February 21:

KSGF: 0/1978

KJLN: 9/1963

KVIH: 2/1963

KUNO: 2/1963



February 22:

KJLN: 7/1963



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Burchfield

LONG TERM...Burchfield

AVIATION...Camden

CLIMATE...Burchfield