Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

488

FXUS63 KSGF 051709

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1109 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Temperatures continue to be 5 to 10+ degrees above average

  through Saturday. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.



- Low rain chances (10-30%) Thursday night into Friday morning.

  Highest chances across central into south central MO.



- Increasing confidence in a frontal passage ushering in colder

  air for Sunday and Monday. Highs in the 40s and lows in the

  20s.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 330 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025



Current conditions: It`s a clear and mild night tonight with just a

few passing high clouds and temperatures in the 50s. Lower

elevations out east have dipped into the upper 40s. Warm air

advection is strongest in the west, counteracting radiational

cooling. Upper level flow is zonal over the Ozarks, but low pressure

centers over the Great Lakes and Texas Panhandle are joining forces

to send a cold front south through the area today.



Today: The cold front makes it to our northwest by about sunrise,

traversing southeast throughout the morning, causing winds to become

northerly. The cold air advection behind the front may be a little

better than previously thought, but still quite weak. High

temperatures today will still reach the upper 60s to low 70s. There

is not nearly enough moisture in the column to result in any

precipitation, as evidenced by the 00Z RAOB PW value of 0.31 inches.

In summary, the passage of the cold front won`t really be that

noticeable.



Tonight: Behind the front, high pressure settles in again. Without

all that warm air advection to counteract the cooling with clear

skies, lows will decrease a bit to low 40s in the north and high 40s

in the south. Winds continue their clockwise turn back to being

southerly by tomorrow.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 330 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025



Thursday and Friday: As it moves closer to the Gulf, the

aforementioned low over Texas begins to stream more moisture into

our area with southerly flow in the Ozarks. Forecast soundings

depict at least an inch of PW by late Thursday night. Temperatures

begin to rebound, especially in the west, with highs reaching the

mid 70s while those in the east remain in the mid 60s. Models out

this far aren`t in great agreement on the amount of instability we

will be able to manage, but the GFS is indicating it could be up to

800 J/kg of MUCAPE. The front looks to move through in the early

morning hours Friday. Both moisture and instability are better to

the east, and our probability of seeing rain remains low. The best

chances will be in central and south-southeast Missouri, clipping

our eastern counties with a 30% chance. The majority of our area has

a less than 20% chance of rain. Isolated thunder may be possible

with the best instability in south-central MO, but the chances for

it also remain below 20%. Overall, this front will make much bigger

waves to our east.



Clouds overnight Thursday will keep things mild with lows in the

50s. The front doesn`t disrupt our above-normal high temperatures

(this time) and highs around 70s are still expected Friday with

clouds clearing in the morning. Mostly clear skies Friday night and

northwest flow will drop lows to almost normal, in the low to mid

40s.



Saturday and Sunday: Our warm temperatures hang on for one more day

Saturday as we briefly sit within the southerly flow of an

approaching surface low. We`ll see mid to high 60s with some temps

of 70 along the southern border. The next upper trough then digs in

overnight, bringing in a much colder airmass. Lows will hover around

freezing for most. Sunday will then be much below normal with

forecast highs in the 40s. The NBM still has interquartile spreads

of 6-7 degrees for early week, but even the 75th percentile is in

the mid-40s, around 15 degrees below normal. Therefore, there is

high confidence in below-normal cold to start next week. Sunday

night will be the coldest, with lows in the low to mid 20s. We may

even see a few in the teens, with wind chills below 20 area-wide.



Monday and Tuesday: Ridging slowly begins to build back in, and

temperatures begin a slow recovery. The 8-14 day outlook is still

favoring above-normal temperatures. The combination of a +PNA/-NAO

could result in a continually wavy upper pattern that results in

this warm-cold-warm pattern continuing for a while.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1106 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025



A cold front is moving through the area and will clear BBG over

the next couple of hours. Behind the front, winds veer to the

north/northwest. Winds tonight will veer more to the

east/northeast and lighten up in speed. As mixing begins,

southeasterly winds will increase in speed with gusts around 20

knots at SGF/JLN.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Nelson

LONG TERM...Nelson

AVIATION...00