2022 Spring River Flood Outlook

.Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook For the Missouri Ozarks and southeast Kansas...

This Spring Flood Outlook is for the larger river systems in the 
National Weather Service Springfield Missouri (SGF) Hydrologic 
Service Area (HSA). This includes rivers within the Spring, Elk, 
Osage, Gasconade, James, Jacks Fork and North Fork White Basins. The 
outlook is for the time period from late February through late May.

Past and Current Conditions: 

Over the past 90 days, precipitation accumulations have been near 
normal to slightly drier than normal across northern and western 
portions of the SGF HSA, with above normal precipitation over south 
and east portions of the area. Soil moisture trends over the past 90 
days show a similar trend. 

Streamflow percentiles from the U.S. Geological Survey showed near 
to below normal streamflows in December and January, and near normal 
to slightly above normal streamflow conditions in February.

Temperatures were well above normal in December before dropping to 
below normal in January and February. So far temperatures have been 
above normal in early March.

Drought Conditions:

There are currently no designated areas of drought in the SGF HSA, 
according to the US Drought Monitor. However, there is an area over 
the northwest portion of the SGF HSA designated as abnormally dry 
(D0), mainly west of a line from Lamar to Warsaw.

Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks: 

The latest NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlooks indicate 
above normal chances for above normal temperatures and precipitation 
through late May.

River Flood Outlook Summaries: 

Extreme Southeast Kansas and Far Southwest Missouri - Spring and Elk 
Rivers and Shoal Creek: 

Based on current conditions and seasonal outlooks, there is a near 
normal chance for river flooding through late spring. River flooding 
is typically driven by thunderstorm activity. 

Southeast Kansas, West Central Missouri and Central Missouri - 
Osage, Little Osage, Marmaton, Sac, Big Piney and Gasconade Rivers 
and Roubidoux Creek:

There is a near normal chance for river flooding this spring based on 
current conditions and seasonal outlooks. Minor flooding is expected 
over the Osage and Gasconade Basins. River flooding is typically 
driven by thunderstorm activity. 

Southwest and South Central Missouri - James, Jacks Fork, and North 
Fork White Rivers: 

Based on current conditions and seasonal outlooks, there is a near 
to above average risk for river flooding along the Jacks Fork River 
and a near normal risk for flooding along the James and North Fork 
White Rivers. River flooding is expected to be influenced mainly by 
thunderstorm activity. 

Flood Pool Storage:

As of March 10, 2022, the following percentages of flood pool 
storage are available to capture runoff at the larger reservoirs in 
and near the SGF HSA:

Osage Basin                   White Basin

Stockton Lake       100%       Beaver Lake 100%
Pomme de Terre Lake  97%       Table Rock Lake   98% 
Truman Lake          97%       Norfork Lake  99% 
Lake of the Ozarks  100%       Bull Shoals Lake 100%