OHD/HL/HSMB - HEP: Projects

• Work on research and development of the eXperimental Ensemble Forecast System (XEFS), which includes:
• Improve the ensemble verification capabilities, including the Ensemble Verification System, to include verification metrics and products that support model developers, RFC forecasters, and end users for diagnostic verification and real-time verification purposes
• Improve the hydrologic Ensemble Post-Processor component and the Hydrologic Model Output Statistics ensemble processor component to produce short- to long-term hydrologic ensembles based on multiple post-processing techniques that make use of single-valued and ensemble hydrologic forecasts at the basin scale
• Improve the data assimilation capabilities to generate optimal initial states and produce improved ensemble snowmelt and flow forecasts using either deterministic or ensemble data assimilation algorithms to account for uncertainty in hydrologic models (e.g., model structure, parameters, and states) and observational data (e.g., model forcing and output)
• Improve the ensemble verification capabilities to include verification metrics and products that support forecast modelers, RFC forecasters, and end users for diagnostic verification and real-time verification purposes
• Evaluate the performance of the individual components of the XEFS and the end-to-end XEFS via multi-year hindcasting and verification on multiple basins

• Support the experimental operation of the XEFS within the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) and the transition of the XEFS into the operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS)

• Support the use of the Ensemble Verification System (EVS)

• Improve the analyses and predictions of hydrometeorological variables for short- to long-term, including their associated uncertainties, with the XEFS to improve prediction of high-impact events (e.g., droughts, floods)


• Incorporate knowledge of observational uncertainties in streamflow forecasting applications Produce high-resolution water resources products over the CONUS domain at the HRAP scale in support of flood and drought monitoring and prediction

Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) with Deltares

Improve hydrologic data assimilation and post-processing capabilities that can be readily implemented in the NWS Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) and in the Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) by using the open source data assimilation (OpenDA) software.

HEPEX

Participate in collaborative ensemble research and community test bed projects with the Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) project to advance probabilistic hydrologic forecast techniques and identify the best ways for the user community to utilize ensemble forecasts