Christmas Day Weather Statistics 2015 (Updated 12/24)

We will see a brown Christmas this year, as southern Wisconsin has remained very warm so far during the month of December 2015. What is the frequency of this occurring?

Let's take a look at the probabilities of having a white Christmas. Note that a white Christmas is defined to be one that has a measure of snow cover (i.e., snow depth) of one inch or more. Snow depth of zero inches or a "Trace" would not be considered for a white Christmas. The below map shows these probabilities across the nation:

Click on the image to enlarge

Probabilities of a White Christmas across the Nation

These probabilities are based on the latest climate period (1981-2010) information from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. You can read more from this article: Are you dreaming of a white Christmas?

For southern Wisconsin, this shows probabilities of a white Christmas between 40% and 70%. Specifically for Milwaukee and Madison, here are the probabilities of seeing 1", 5", and 10" of snow on the ground for Christmas.

Snow Depth	1"	5"	10"
Milwaukee	60%	10%	3%
Madison	67%	20%	7%

Thus, about 2 out of 3 Christmas Days at Milwaukee and Madison have at least 1" of snow on the ground. From this, we can say that about 1 out of 3 Christmas Days, or about 33% of Christmas Days, tend to not have snow on the ground.

These probabilities come from this webpage from the National Weather Service office in central Oklahoma: https://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=climate-whitechristmas.

Here's some other Christmas Day statistics for Milwaukee and Madison:

	Milwaukee (year)	Madison (year)
Highest Temp	61 (1982)	56 (1982)
Lowest Temp	-12 (1983)	-21 (2000)
Wettest	0.96 (2009)	0.67 (1876)
Most Snowfall	6.0 (1909)	3.5 (1950)
Highest Snow Depth	25.0 (2000)	16.0 (1985)

Normal high/low temperatures for Christmas Day:

Milwaukee: 30/18

Madison: 28/13

Data for Christmas Day over the past 10 years:

Milwaukee

YEAR	HIGH	LOW	PRECIP	SNOWFALL	SNOW DEPTH
2014	41	34	0.00	0.0	0
2013	24	15	0.08	1.5	10
2012	31	21	T	T	1
2011	42	31	0.00	0.0	0
2010	33	28	0.03	0.6	T
2009	42	23	0.96	T	2
2008	28	0	T	T	13
2007	39	18	0.00	0.0	1
2006	38	31	0.00	0.0	0
2005	36	33	0.00	0.0	2

Madison

YEAR	HIGH	LOW	PRECIP	SNOWFALL	SNOW DEPTH
2014	42	32	0.00	0.0	0
2013	23	11	0.09	2.2	9
2012	19	8	0.00	0.0	9
2011	43	23	0.00	0.0	T
2010	30	20	T	T	7
2009	40	17	0.49	1	5
2008	21	-7	0.01	0.2	15
2007	37	20	0.00	0.0	5
2006	33	26	0.00	0.0	0
2005	36	32	T	T	4

Last 10 years with snow free Christmas Days (no snow on the ground AND no new fallen snow):

MILWAUKEE	MADISON
2014	2014
2011	2006
2006	1982
1998	1979
1995	1971
1986	1955
1982	1943
1955	1939
1943	1936
1939	1931

With the brown Christmas this year, and with last year being a brown Christmas, this will be an instance of two consecutive years without a white Christmas. Has this happened before?

The short answer is yes, both Milwaukee and Madison have had consecutive years of a brown Christmas. The below table shows the consecutive years of a brown Christmas for Milwaukee and Madison, and what was measured for each year:

Milwaukee	Madison
2010 (T), 2011 (0")	2002 (0"), 2003 (T)
2001 (T), 2002 (0"), 2003 (T), 2004 (0")	1975 (T), 1976 (T)
1988 (T), 1989 (T), 1990 (0"), 1991 (T), 1992 (T), 1993 (0"), 1994 (T), 1995 (0")	1957 (0"), 1958 (T)
1976 (T), 1977 (T)	1952 (T), 1953 (T)
1967 (T), 1968 (T)	1939 (0"), 1940 (T), 1941 (T)
1952 (T), 1953 (T), 1954 (T), 1955 (0"), 1956 (T), 1957 (0"), 1958 (T)	1931 (0"), 1932 (T)
1948 (T), 1949 (T)	1927 (T), 1928 (T)

*Note: Milwaukee began taking snow depth measurements in 1948, while Madison began taking them in 1904.

Schultz/Miller/Wood

NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI