National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Missouri Basin River Forecast Center
Water Supply Statement
Issued in cooperation with the Natural
Resources Conservation Service
Issued:  February 16, 2024

 

 

                                                        February 1, 2024 Spring and Summer Streamflow Forecasts

 

 Upper Missouri Basin


The high elevation snow pack in the Upper Missouri Basin as of February 1
was below ave
rage.  The snow pack in the St. Mary Basin was 56 percent,
and the Milk River Basin was 59 percent.

January precipitation across the Upper Missouri Basin was mostly near to below 
average.  Basin precipitation summaries for the Missouri Basin include: Milk St.
Mary, 71 percent; Milk Canada, 118 percent; Lower Milk, 75 percent; above Toston,
76 percent; Toston to Ft. Peck, 95 percent. 

 

January 2024 Upper Missouri Mean Precip                                  Oct-Jan WY2024 Upper Missouri Mean Precip


Stream flow in the Upper Missouri Basin is forecast to be
below average during the upcoming Spring and Summer.
The St. Mary River is forecast to have 50 percent of average
April-September flows. Runoff is expected to range around
65 percent of average for the Missouri Basin above Fort Peck,
Montana.


 


          Upper Missouri February 1, 2024 Spring and Summer Streamflow Forecasts

 

Of the four major irrigation reservoirs in Montana; Lima
Reservoir had 143 percent average storage, Clark Canyon was
holding 143 percent of average water, Gibson Reservoir had 30
percent of average stored water, and Fresno Reservoir had
41 percent of average stored water.



Yellowstone Basin 

The high elevation snow pack in the Yellowstone Basin was below average
on February 1. The snow pack in the Upper Yellowstone Basin was 55 percent
of average. The snow packs in the Wind, Bighorn, and Shoshone Basins were 86,
74, and 73 percent of average, respectively. The snow packs in the Tongue
and Powder basins were 60 and 51 percent of average, respectively.

Precipitation during January was below average. The upper Yellowstone
River Basin received 57 percent of average precipitation while the
Lower Yellowstone River Basin reported 66 percent of average. The
Bighorn Basin received 52 percent of average precipitation while the
Wind River Basin received 61 percent of average. The Little Bighorn -
Upper Tongue Basin received 38 percent of average and the Powder River
had 48 percent of average precipitation.




 January 2024 Yellowstone Mean Precip                                        Oct-Jan WY2024 Yellowstone Mean Precip
 

Forecast stream flow in the Yellowstone Basin is below average 
for the upcoming Spring and Summer.  Stream flow for the
Yellowstone River above Sidney, Montana is forecast to be about 
84 percent of average.  Flow in the Tongue Basin is expected to be
79 percent of average.  Flows in the Powder River are expected
to be about 68 percent of average.

Monthend storage at Boysen Reservoir was 107 percent of average. 
Stored water in Buffalo Bill Reservoir was 107 percent of average. 
Monthend storage was 100 percent of average at Bighorn Reservoir.

 


    Yellowstone February 1, 2024 Spring and Summer Streamflow Forecasts

 

Platte Basin 

The high elevation snow pack in the Upper North Platte Basin was
80 percent of average on February 1.  The snow pack in the North Platte
Basin below Seminoe Reservoir was 85 percent of average.  The snow
pack in the South Platte Basin was 90 percent of average.

Precipitation during January in the Upper North Platte Basin was 119
percent of average.  In the Lower North Platte Basin, precipitation
was 94 percent of average.  The North Platte Plains below Guernsy
Reservoir had 96 percent.  The South Platte Mountains had 105
percent whereas the Plains had 86 percent of average January
precipitation.





 

 January 2024 Platte Mean Precip                                            Oct-Jan WY2024 Platte Mean Precip

 

Stream flow in the Platte Basin is forecast to be near 
average during the upcoming Spring and Summer. Runoff
for streams above Seminoe Reservoir are expected to be
about 85 percent of average. Streams in the South Platte
Basin above South Platte, Colorado can expect 91 percent
of average flow. For the remainder of the South Platte
basin, flows are expected near 92 percent.

Stored water in the South Platte Basin was 105 percent of average
on February 1.



   North Platte Streamflow Fcst                     South Platte Streamflow Fcst


PRECIPITATION MAPS
January 2024  WY 2024
January 2024 Precipitation Percent of 1991-2020 Average WY2024 Precipitation as Percent of 1991-2020 Average
January 2024 Basin Mean Precipitation          WY2024 Basin Mean Precipitation
January 2024 MBRFC Basin Mean Precipitation      WY2024 MBRFC Basin Mean Precipitation

 


       WATER SUPPLY FORECAST
NWS MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
PLEASANT HILL MISSOURI

1219 CST MONDAY FEBRUARY 05, 2024

DATA CURRENT AS OF: FEBRUARY 01, 2024

MISSOURI/YELLOWSTONE/PLATTE RIVER BASIN FORECASTS


                                          50%   %   10%   90%   AVG
FORECAST POINT                   PERIOD  (KAF) AVG (KAF) (KAF) (KAF)
--------------------------------------------------------------------

Boysen Resvr Inflow              Apr-Sep  695   97  1343  355    720
 SBDW4

Boysen Resvr Inflow              Apr-Sep 1171  132  1882  727    890
 SBDW4N

Bighorn R at Kane                Apr-Sep 1262  128  2089  735    985
 LVEW4

Bighorn R at Kane                Apr-Sep 1976  137  2904 1290   1440
 LVEW4N

Greybull R at Meeteetse          Apr-Sep  293  149   400  180    196
 MEEW4

Greybull R at Meeteetse          Apr-Sep  293  143   400  180    205
 MEEW4N

Buffalo Bill Resvr Inflow        Apr-Sep  605   74   900  489    815
 CDYW4

Buffalo Bill Resvr Inflow        Apr-Sep  697   77   994  562    910
 CDYW4N

Keyhole Resvr Inflow             Apr-Sep    6  150    18    2      4
 KEYW4

St. Mary R nr Babb               Apr-Sep  283   62   376  236    460
 SMYM8

St. Mary R nr Babb               Apr-Sep  269   50   363  220    535
 SMYM8N

St. Mary R at Intl Boundary      Apr-Sep  203   52   336  143    390
 SMBM8

St. Mary R at Intl Boundary      Apr-Sep  323   49   449  261    660
 SMBM8N

Milk R nr Western Crossing       Apr-Sep   11   10    30    5    113
 PDBM8

Milk R nr Western Crossing       Apr-Sep   15   37    42    6     41
 PDBM8N

Milk R nr Eastern Crossing       Apr-Sep  147   68   216  135    215
 ERNM8

Milk R nr Eastern Crossing       Apr-Sep   36   32   140   17    112
 ERNM8N

North Platte R nr Northgate      Apr-Sep  337  138   557  202    245
 NGTC2

North Platte R nr Northgate      Apr-Sep  391  133   609  251    295
 NGTC2N

Encampment R nr Encampment       Apr-Sep  106   68   155   70    156
 ECRW4

Encampment R nr Encampment       Apr-Sep  117   70   165   81    166
 ECRW4N

Rock Cr nr Arlington             Apr-Sep   41   77    57   30     53
 KCRW4

Rock Cr nr Arlington             Apr-Sep   41   77    57   30     53
 KCRW4N

Seminoe Resvr Inflow             Apr-Sep  710   93  1020  441    765
 SETW4

Seminoe Resvr Inflow             Apr-Sep  870   95  1175  590    920
 SETW4N

Laramie R nr Woods Landing       Apr-Sep   46   43   107   24    108
 WODW4

Laramie R nr Woods Landing       Apr-Sep   82   58   142   49    142
 WODW4N

Little Laramie R nr Filmore      Apr-Sep   48   87    82   33     55
 SMTW4

Little Laramie R nr Filmore      Apr-Sep   50   88    84   35     57
 SMTW4N

Antero Resvr Inflow              Apr-Sep   13   93    20    7     14
 ANRC2

Antero Resvr Inflow              Apr-Sep   13   93    20    7     14
 ANRC2N

Spinney Mountain Resvr Inflow    Apr-Sep   51   89    96   33     57
 SPYC2

Spinney Mountain Resvr Inflow    Apr-Sep   41   91    86   21     45
 SPYC2N

Elevenmile Canyon Resvr Inflow   Apr-Sep   46   78    89   36     59
 EVNC2

Elevenmile Canyon Resvr Inflow   Apr-Sep   45   90    90   23     50
 EVNC2N

Cheesman Lk Inflow               Apr-Sep   81   81   153   53    100
 CHEC2

Cheesman Lk Inflow               Apr-Sep   85   91   160   49     93
 CHEC2N

S Platte R at S Platte           Apr-Sep  354  148   446  302    240
 SPTC2

S Platte R at S Platte           Apr-Sep  169   82   270   98    205
 SPTC2N

Bear Cr at Morrison              Apr-Sep   18   69    35   10     26
 MRRC2

Bear Cr at Morrison              Apr-Sep   18   69    35   10     26
 MRRC2N

Clear Cr at Golden               Apr-Sep  100   85   148   58    118
 GLDC2

Clear Cr at Golden               Apr-Sep  112   85   161   67    131
 GLDC2N

St. Vrain Cr at Lyons            Apr-Sep   57   72    93   37     79
 LNSC2

St. Vrain Cr at Lyons            Apr-Sep   82   75   129   55    109
 LNSC2N

Boulder Cr nr Orodell            Apr-Sep   39   83    64   26     47
 OROC2

Boulder Cr nr Orodell            Apr-Sep   54  104    80   36     52
 OROC2N

S Boulder Cr nr Eldorado Sprgs   Apr-Sep   34   97    50   20     35
 BELC2

S Boulder Cr nr Eldorado Sprgs   Apr-Sep   38   95    60   20     40
 BELC2N

Cache La Poudre at Canyon Mouth  Apr-Sep  163  151   264   91    108
 FTDC2

Cache La Poudre at Canyon Mouth  Apr-Sep  193   92   292  106    210
 FTDC2N

Lima Resvr Inflow                Apr-Sep   46   61    77   19     76
 LRRM8

Lima Resvr Inflow                Apr-Sep   46   58    77   19     79
 LRRM8N

Clark Canyon Resvr Inflow        Apr-Sep   66   60   109   48    110
 CLKM8

Clark Canyon Resvr Inflow        Apr-Sep  113   57   178   72    198
 CLKM8N

Beaverhead R at Barretts         Apr-Sep  151   76   195  138    199
 BARM8

Beaverhead R at Barretts         Apr-Sep  146   52   218  101    280
 BARM8N

Ruby R Resvr Inflow              Apr-Sep   83   94   100   64     88
 ALRM8

Ruby R Resvr Inflow              Apr-Sep   83   86   100   64     97
 ALRM8N

Big Hole R nr Melrose            Apr-Sep  298   50   430  159    595
 MLRM8

Big Hole R nr Melrose            Apr-Sep  363   55   497  217    660
 MLRM8N

Hebgen Resvr Inflow              Apr-Sep  396   85   488  310    465
 HBDM8

Hebgen Resvr Inflow              Apr-Sep  396   85   488  310    465
 HBDM8N

Ennis Resvr Inflow               Apr-Sep  616   86   714  508    715
 ELMM8

Ennis Resvr Inflow               Apr-Sep  654   90   782  504    730
 ELMM8N

Gallatin R nr Gateway            Apr-Sep  165   35   212  127    475
 GLGM8

Gallatin R nr Gateway            Apr-Sep  165   35   212  127    475
 GLGM8N

Gallatin R at Logan              Apr-Sep  175   35   260  120    505
 LOGM8

Gallatin R at Logan              Apr-Sep  299   46   387  216    650
 LOGM8N

Missouri R at Toston             Apr-Sep 1244   60  1684  879   2060
 TOSM8

Missouri R at Toston             Apr-Sep 1838   65  2472 1364   2830
 TOSM8N

Missouri R at Fort Benton        Apr-Sep 1648   54  1813 1508   3060
 FBNM8

Missouri R at Fort Benton        Apr-Sep 2621   64  3363 1924   4100
 FBNM8N

Missouri R nr Virgelle           Apr-Sep 1783   52  1998 1607   3420
 VRGM8

Missouri R nr Virgelle           Apr-Sep 2917   64  3854 2100   4560
 VRGM8N

Missouri R nr Landusky           Apr-Sep 1950   53  2232 1728   3680
 LDKM8

Missouri R nr Landusky           Apr-Sep 3166   65  4145 2274   4890
 LDKM8N

Missouri R below Fort Peck Dam   Apr-Sep 1811   47  2207 1472   3840
 FPKM8

Missouri R below Fort Peck Dam   Apr-Sep 3045   59  4063 2046   5180
 FPKM8N

Gibson Resvr Inflow              Apr-Sep  219   49   369  156    450
 AGSM8

Gibson Resvr Inflow              Apr-Sep  219   49   369  156    450
 AGSM8N

Marias R nr Shelby               Apr-Sep  181   42   384  103    435
 SHLM8

Marias R nr Shelby               Apr-Sep  219   45   432  128    490
 SHLM8N

Musselshell R at Harlowton       Apr-Sep   95  119   165   66     80
 HLWM8

Musselshell R at Harlowton       Apr-Sep  111  117   180   80     95
 HLWM8N

Yellowstone R at Yellowstone Lk  Apr-Sep  692   85   828  563    815
 YLOW4

Yellowstone R at Yellowstone Lk  Apr-Sep  875  104  1013  701    840
 YLOW4N

Yellowstone R at Corwin Sprgs    Apr-Sep 1481   75  1787 1160   1980
 CORM8

Yellowstone R at Corwin Sprgs    Apr-Sep 1762   85  2083 1381   2070
 CORM8N

Yellowstone R at Livingston      Apr-Sep 1710   75  2042 1326   2290
 LIVM8

Yellowstone R at Livingston      Apr-Sep 2026   83  2404 1604   2440
 LIVM8N

Yellowstone R at Billings        Apr-Sep 2743   67  3221 1920   4070
 BILM8

Yellowstone R at Billings        Apr-Sep 3706   77  4274 2914   4790
 BILM8N

Yellowstone R at Miles City      Apr-Sep 4383   75  6251 3416   5850
 MILM8

Yellowstone R at Miles City      Apr-Sep 6930   90  8659 5452   7690
 MILM8N

Yellowstone R at Sidney          Apr-Sep 4409   77  6297 3212   5710
 SIDM8

Yellowstone R at Sidney          Apr-Sep 7184   89  9100 5579   8060
 SIDM8N

Boulder R at Big Timber          Apr-Sep  162   48   212   97    335
 BTMM8

Boulder R at Big Timber          Apr-Sep  202   54   252  135    375
 BTMM8N

Stillwater R nr Absarokee        Apr-Sep  412   76   523  309    540
 SRAM8

Stillwater R nr Absarokee        Apr-Sep  468   79   579  369    595
 SRAM8N

Clks Fk Yellowstone R nr Belfry  Apr-Sep  381   61   508  279    620
 BFYM8

Clks Fk Yellowstone R nr Belfry  Apr-Sep  454   65   580  351    695
 BFYM8N

Bighorn R nr St. Xavier          Apr-Sep 1611  113  2366 1056   1430
 STXM8

Bighorn R nr St. Xavier          Apr-Sep 2903  118  3949 2121   2460
 STXM8N

Little Bighorn R nr Hardin       Apr-Sep   85   67   259   51    127
 HRDM8

Little Bighorn R nr Hardin       Apr-Sep   85   67   259   51    127
 HRDM8N

Tongue R nr Dayton               Apr-Sep   70   73    93   43     96
 DAYW4

Tongue R nr Dayton               Apr-Sep   76   75    99   49    101
 DAYW4N

Tongue R nr Decker               Apr-Sep  143   61   238   63    235
 DSLM8

Tongue R nr Decker               Apr-Sep  190   79   288  104    240
 DSLM8N

Tongue R Resvr Inflow            Apr-Sep  146   62   246   64    235
 DKRM8

Tongue R Resvr Inflow            Apr-Sep  194   79   296  105    245
 DKRM8N

Powder R at Moorhead             Apr-Sep  146   65   334   59    225
 MHDM8

Powder R at Moorhead             Apr-Sep  190   70   378   88    270
 MHDM8N

Powder R nr Locate               Apr-Sep  161   62   367   63    260
 LOCM8

Powder R nr Locate               Apr-Sep  204   67   413   92    305
 LOCM8N


Locations with an `N` suffix indicate natural flows excluding
stream augmentations.

KAF: Thousands of Acre-feet

%AVG: Current 50%/AVG

AVG: Average(50%) seasonal runoff voulme as simulated by the river
forecast model considering acontinuous simulation of the basin
response to historic climate data (observed precipitation and
temperatures) over the period of 1991-2020.

The 50%, 10% and 90% columns indicate the probability that the
actual volume will exceed the forecast for the valid time period.

Beginning April 1, May and June official forecasts include observed
runoff volume up to official forecast date.

For more information, please visit: www.weather.gov/mbrfc/water


$$