Derived Products Coming in from GOES-16 Satellite

One of the neat products beginning to come in from the new GOES-16 satellite (still in the calibration stage, so these data are considered preliminary and non-operational) provides a look at the atmospheric column where thunderstorms can form. Another positive factor is that the data in the images below come in every 5 minutes, so you can really see airmasses and how they change over time. The images below show a few of the available products that are derived from its various imagers. In each of the loops, the blacks areas are where clouds have masked the ability to derive the data, but large enough areas are available to sample the big picture. Click on the images below to get a loop of each image.

Preliminary Total Precipitable Water data from the GOES-16. The green and blue colors show drier pockets in the atmosphere, such as one just west of Nashville, TN, whereas the pinks and purples show more moist areas, such as eastern Kentucky and the Lower Mississippi River Valley.

Preliminary Lifted Index data from GOES-16. This is a stability index, in which more negative values (in this image reds) indicate more instability, whereas more stable air is in the blue/peach colors.

Preliminary Convective Available Potential Energy from GOES-16. This index is another measure of buoyancy in the atmosphere. Blue and yellow colors indicate areas where stronger updrafts are possible, which lead to thunderstorm development. Here in central Kentucky and southern Indiana that potential is low now (Wednesday morning), but should rise through the afternoon hours, providing scattered thunderstorms.

So how do these data compared to models? The Storm Prediction Center has a website where forecasters can analyze the storm potential based on model data. The model data from the Rapid Refresh model (RAP) with the same parameters as above are shown in the images below.

Meteorologists can use the new satellite data to see where models are doing well handling their initial state of the atmosphere. If they are not handling the initial state well, then it stands to reason that their forecast will not be as good. As the new GOES-16 data becomes operational, more of these data will be used as inputs to model data, which should improve our forecasts.

Speaking of a forecast, here is one model's version of today's (again Wednesday's) rain chances across the Midwest. The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) imaged below shows a line of storms forming in the better instability across Illinois that will push eastward through the day. It also expects some development after lunchtime mainly east of I-65 here in Kentucky and southern Indiana today. That line of storms to our west may survive into our region this evening, but a lot will depend on how our afternoon plays out here. Forecasters have to take all of these inputs, model and satellite/radar data, together with other observations to determine which regions have the best chance for rains.