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NWS Jackson Hazardous Weather Outlook/Threat-Based Graphics

The Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) is designed to be a "heads up" to expected hazardous weather and its potential impact for the seven-day outlook period. It provides a first stop for users to find information on the potential for hazardous weather including timing, location, and impact. In conjunction with a text Hazardous Weather Outlook product, NWS Jackson produces coinciding images to provide a graphical depiction of threats, timing, and impacts. The text Hazardous Weather Outlook product is routinely issued twice a day - once during the early morning and again during the afternoon, and it is updated as needed. The issuance of the threat based graphics is contingent upon the existence of hazards in the upcoming forecast. Hazardous weather is defined as a meteorological or hydrologic event which has a significant chance of creating a harmful impact on people, property, or the economy.

The following hazards are included in the NWS Jackson HWO/graphics system:


Hazardous Weather Outlook Text Format

Bullets listed at beginning of each HWO segment provide readers with a quick assessment of the “what” and “when” in the Day 1 period. For example:

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

FLOODING
THREAT…Extreme
TIMING…Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT…Enhanced
TIMING…Late Tonight and Thursday Morning

FOG
THREAT…Limited
TIMING…3 AM to 10 AM

Information for the Days 2-7 period will be more general and will not require bullets, but threat legend information will be given. Threat levels for hazards expected over the next seven days are defined at the bottom of the HWO text product. For example:

…THREAT LEGENDS…

*FOG*
Extreme...Widespread fog with near zero visibilities
Significant...Fog with visibilities less than or equal to ¼ mile likely
Elevated...Fog with visibilities less than or equal to 1/4 mile possible
Limited...Patchy areas of fog with visibilities less than or equal to 1/4 mile

*FLOODING*
Extreme…Confident in significant flooding
Significant…Significant flooding possible
Elevated…Confident in flooding
Limited…Flooding possible

Threat-Based Graphic Example

Example Image

Hazard Category Definitions

With the exception of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes (which use the Storm Prediction Center scale), the color scale, categories, and definitions are based on feedback from our partners (including media, emergency managers, and social scientists). The threat levels (extreme, significant, elevated, and limited) are designated based on forecast confidence and potential impact.

Severe Thunderstorms/Tornadoes
Hazard Level
Description
High
Significant severe expected
  • Extreme wind gusts 80+ mph
  • Large hail > golf ball size
  • Strong/violent tornadoes possible
Moderate
Severe storms expected; Significant severe possible
  • Damaging wind gusts (60 to 75 mph)
  • Hail quarter to golf ball size
  • Significant severe possible – strong tornadoes, large hail greater than golf ball size, extreme wind gusts (80+ mph)
Enhanced
Severe storms expected
  • Damaging wind gusts (60 to 75 mph)
  • Hail quarter to golf ball size
  • Tornadoes possible
Slight
Severe storms possible
  • Damaging wind gusts (60 to 75 mph)
  • Hail quarter to golf ball size
  • A few tornadoes possible
Marginal
Isolated severe storms possible
  • Damaging wind gusts (60 mph)
  • Hail up to quarter size
  • A tornadoes cannot be ruled out

 

Excessive Heat
Hazard Level
Description
Extreme
Maximum heat index greater than 110°F for 3+ days and/or high temperature greater than 107°F
Significant
Maximum heat index greater than 110°F and/or high temperature greater than 105°F
Elevated
Maximum heat index 106°F to 110°F and/or high temperature greater than 103°F
Limited
Maximum heat index near 105°F and/or high temperature greater than or equal to 100°F

 

Fire Danger
Hazard Level
Description
Extreme
Conditions well in excess of Red Flag Warning criteria with strong wind gusts greater than 40 mph. Fires will spread very quickly and wildfires are common. Fire control is very difficult, even for experienced firefighters.
Significant
Conditions meet minimum Red Flag Warnings criteria. Open burning should not be attempted as fires can quickly escape and become very difficult to control, even for experienced firefighters.
Elevated
Any open burning is discouraged due to increased wind, lower humidity, and recent dry conditions, except by fire personnel. Fires escape control more easily and containment is difficult for fire personnel.
Limited
Extra caution is advised with open burning. Heed local burn bans when in effect.

 

Flooding
Hazard Level
Description
Extreme
Confident in significant flooding
Significant
Confident in flooding, Significant flooding possible
Elevated
Confident in flooding
Limited
Flooding possible

 

Fog
Hazard Level
Description
Extreme
Widespread fog with near zero visibilities
Significant
Fog with visibilities less than or equal to 1/4 mile likely
Elevated
Fog with visibilities less than or equal to 1/4 mile possible
Limited
Patchy areas of fog with visibilities less than or equal to 1/4 mile

 

Frost/Freeze
Hazard Level
Description
Extreme
Hard freeze (less than or equal to 28°F) during the growing season with catastrophic damage to unprotected vegetation
Significant
Freeze expected (less than or equal to 32°F for 3 hours or more during the growing season with significant damage to unprotected vegetation
Elevated
Frost expected during the growing season with damage to unprotected vegetation. This may include temperatures less than 32°F for 1-2 hours
Limited
Patchy frost during the growing season with minor damage to unprotected vegetation

 

Hard Freeze
Hazard Level
Description
Extreme
Likely lows below 10°F and highs below 32°F
Significant
Likely lows below 15°F and highs below 32°F
Elevated
Likely lows below 20°F and highs near or below 32°F
Limited
Possible lows below 20°F and highs near or below 32°F

 

Ice Accumulation
Hazard Level
Description
Extreme
Roads impassable and widespread power outages likely
Significant
Dangerous travel conditions and numerous power outages possible
Elevated
Difficult travel conditions and sporadic power outages possible
Limited
Light icing of bridges and overpasses

 

Snow Accumulation
Hazard Level
Description
Extreme
Roads impassable and widespread power outages likely
Significant
Dangerous travel conditions and numerous power outages possible
Elevated
Difficult travel conditions and sporadic power outages possible
Limited
Bridges may be snow-covered

 

Gradient/Non-Thunderstorm Winds
Hazard Level
Description
Extreme
Sustained winds 50 mph or greater or wind gusts 65 mph or greater
Significant
Sustained winds 40-49 mph or wind gusts 58-64 mph
Elevated
Sustained winds 30-39 mph or wind gusts 45-57 mph
Limited
Sustained winds 20-29 mph or wind gusts 30 to 44 mph

 

Wind Chill Danger
Hazard Level
Description
Extreme
Wind chills lower than -14°F
Significant
Wind chills from -5°F to -14°F
Elevated
Wind chills from -5°F to 5°F
Limited
Wind chills from 5°F to 9°F

 

Tropical - Flooding Rain Threat
Hazard Level
Description
Extreme
Potential for devastating to catastrophic damage from flooding
High
Potential for extensive damage from flooding
Moderate
Potential for significant damage from flooding
Elevated
Potential for flash flooding resulting in limited damage from flooding

 

Tropical - Tornado Threat
Hazard Level
Description
Extreme
Potential for historic tornado outbreak capable of producing devastating to catastrophic damage
High
Potential for outbreak of tornadoes (several strong) capable of producing extensive damage
Moderate
Potential for scattered tornadoes (a few strong) capable of producing significant damage
Elevated
Potential for isolated tornadoes capable of producing limited to locally significant damage

 

Tropical - Wind Threat
Hazard Level
Description
Extreme
Potential for winds equal to or greater than 111 mph
High
Potential for winds equal to or greater than 74 mph and less than 111 mph
Moderate
Potential for winds equal to or greater than 58 mph and less than 74 mph
Elevated
Potential for winds equal to or greater than 39 mph and less than 58 mph

 


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