Spring Flood Outlook -Updated Feb 27, 2025

Seasonal Flood Outlook Probability Table for River Forecast Locations 

Seasonal Flood Outlook Graphics (select site on map, select 'Full Gauge Page' on top of hydrograph, then scroll down)

Hydrographs with the Official Forecast River Forecast. The forecasts use 48 hours of precipitation April 1 to Sep 30 and 24 hours of precipitation from Oct 1 to March 31.

Feb 13, 2025   Slides

Feb. 27, 2025  Slides

Mar. 13, 2025

If you have any questions or comments about this spring flood outlook or the new river forecast website please contact:

Sarah Marquardt

Senior Service Hydrologist

National Weather Service Milwaukee

sarah.marquardt@noaa.gov

Flood Risk Factors

Current Conditions (some images auto update and conditions may differ from when the spring flood outlook was issued)

Snow Water Equivalent (inches)	Ranked Snow Water Equivalent	Frost Depth (inches) 2/25/25
Soil Temperature 2/11/25	14 Day Streamflow Percentile	Soil Moisture Percentile - Climate Prediction Center
30 Day Precipitation Departure From Normal	4 Month Precipitation Departure from Normal	U.S. Drought Monitor

Flood Risk Factors (as of 2/25/25) 

Snow Pack

There is little to no snow across southern Wisconsin. Typically there is 0.5 to 1 inch. The below average snowpack is a large factor in reducing the flood risk.

Frost Depth

There is 10 to 30 inches of frost in the ground at this time, which is deeper than usual. This helps to increase the flood risk somewhat because moisture will not easily infiltrate into the ground leading to more surface water runoff into area waterways.

Streamflow and River Levels

Precipitation since December 1 is 25-75% of normal across southern Wisconsin. Streamflow values are average to below average, with the lowest values in southeast Wisconsin. As a result, there is some room in rivers to hold additional rainfall.

Soil Moisture

Soil moisture is in the 10-30th percentile across southeast Wisconsin where the precipitation deficits since the fall are the greatest. It is in the 30-70th percentile, the near normal category, across the remainder of southern Wisconsin. The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates Moderate Drought in southeast Wisconsin. As a result, there is room for the ground to absorb water from melting snow and spring rain in southeast Wisconsin. This is another big factor in the reduced flood risk in that area.

Rivers and Ice

Rivers have accumulated more ice than usual, leading to a slightly elevated for break up jams when the flows increase on the rivers.

Looking Ahead (images auto update)

7 Day Precipitation Forecast

Extended outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center:

How To Prepare Safety

Preparedness/Early Actions:

• Get a NOAA Weather Radio to be alerted to flash flood warnings and river flood warnings
• Monitor weather forecasts for heavy rain potential
• Have a communications plan for your family and a place to meet in higher ground.
• Monitor river levels and forecasted river levels online: (National Site, USGS, MKX)
• Know a safe way to exit your home and neighborhood and avoid any roads susceptible to flooding
• Prepare your home:
  • Consider flood insurance, especially if you are in a flood prone area - (may require 30 day notice)
  • Make sure your sump pump is working and consider a backup.
  • Have a professional install check-values to prevent floodwaters from backing up into the drains of your home
  • Keep important documents in a waterproof, elevated container, not in the basement.
  • Remove snow from roof, downspout area, and away from base of home
  • Finish any outdoor projects that may be affected by heavy rain or flood waters
• Prepare (Flood Ready, Flood Safety) 

How To Stay Safe During a Flood:

• Heed evacuation orders and evacuate your home if it is at risk
• Turn Around, Don't Drown - never drive through flooded roads
  • You do not know how deep the water is or if the road has been washed out
  • You may damage your vehicle
  • You put yourself and first responders at risk

Flood Risk and River Outlooks

Long Range Outlooks

Weekly Probability of Exceeding Flood Stage by Location. More information is here.

10 Day River Outlook

Includes 10 days of precipitation, snowmelt, and temperature. These are automated forecasts with no human forecaster intervention that update twice per day. More information is here.