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Additional Observations

How Much Rain Has Fallen?
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Precipitation Forecasts
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Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) provides a general indication of the amount of rainfall evenly distributed over various durations (in hours), necessary to cause small streams to overflow their natural banks. During heavy rainfall, accurate interpretation of the guidance consists of the combination of rainfall that has already occurred plus any additional rainfall that can be confidently expected to fall over the same location in the immediate future.

It should be noted that FFG values represent estimates of average soil moisture and stream flow conditions. Flooding may occur with less rainfall than indicated in areas of high rainfall intensities, impervious surfaces, or steep slopes.

1 Hour	3 Hour	6 Hour

The images below depict the Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO). In the ERO, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) forecasts the probability that rainfall will exceed flash flood guidance (FFG) within 40 kilometers (25 miles) of a point. If the maps are not current, please visit the WPC ERO Interactive Page: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php?id=CTP

Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook	Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook	Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Day 4 Excessive Rainfall Outlook	Day 5 Excessive Rainfall Outlook	Middle Atlantic Flood Outlook

Day 1 Precipitation	Day 2 Precipitation	Day 3 Precipitation
Day 4-5 Precipitation	Day 6-7 Precipitation	7-Day Total Precipitation

River Monitor

Hydrographs (showing stages and flows over time) are available through the National Water Prediction Service (NWPS) by clicking site names.

No Flood Near Flood Minor Flood Moderate Flood Major Flood

River Conditions at: 3:05 PM EDT 11/02/2024 Location Flood Stage (ft.) Observed (ft.) 24-Hr Change Crest (ft.) Forecast for 8.0 AM Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed. Susquehanna River Bloomsburg 19.0 0.51 -0.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Danville 20.0 2.33 0.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 Sunbury 24.0 6.07 0.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 Harrisburg 17.0 3.15 -0.0 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 Marietta 49.0 32.58 -0.3 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.7 Conowingo Dam 23.5 9.46 0.0 - - - - - Adams County West Conewago Creek at East Berlin - 2.78 +0.1 - - - - - Bermudian Creek near Heidlersburg - 1.86 -0.0 - - - - - Bedford County Raystown Branch Juniata at Bedford - 5.22 -0.0 - - - - - Dunning Creek at Belden 8.0 1.36 -0.0 - - - - - Wills Creek below Hyndman - 1.6 0.0 - - - - - Blair County Frankstown Branch of the Juniata at Williamsburg 12.0 2.52 -0.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Bald Eagle Creek at Tyrone - 0.38 -0.0 - - - - - Cambria County Stonycreek River at Ferndale 19.0 2.38 -0.0 - - - - - Little Conemaugh River at East Conemaugh 25.0 7.8 -0.0 - - - - - Conemaugh River at Johnstown 28.0 1.51 0.0 - - - - - Glendale Lake at Beaverdam Run - - - - - - - - Cameron County Waldy Run near Emporium - 3.32 -0.0 - - - - - Driftwood Branch Sinnemahoning at Sterling Run - -1.2 0.0 - - - - - Sinnehahoning Creek at Sinnemahoning 17.0 1.9 -0.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 First Fork Sinnemahoning on Stevenson Dam - -0.18 -0.0 - - - - - First Fork Sinnemahoning Creek near Sinnemahoning - -0.18 -0.0 - - - - - Centre County Bald Eagle Creek at Milesburg - -0.3 0.0 - - - - - Bald Eagle Creek on Sayers Dam - 29.99 0.0 - - - - - Bald Eagle Creek at Blanchard - 3.15 0.0 - - - - - Beech Creek at Monument - 5.33 -0.0 - - - - - Marsh Creek at Blanchard - 0.88 -0.0 - - - - - Spring Creek at Houserville - 2.74 -0.0 - - - - - Spring Creek near Axemann - 2.16 0.0 - - - - - Spring Creek at Milesburg - 4.0 0.0 - - - - - Clearfield County Sandy Lick Creek at Dubois - 0.76 0.0 - - - - - WB Susquehanna at Bower Mahaffey - 4.29 0.0 - - - - - WB Susquehanna on Curwensville Dam - 1162.54 0.0 - - - - - WB Susquehanna near Curwensville downstream - 2.11 -0.0 - - - - - WB Susquehanna at Hyde - 2.79 -0.0 - - - - - WB Susquehanna at Karthaus 19.0 1.23 -0.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Clearfield Creek at Dimeling 13.0 2.9 - - - - - - Clinton County Bald Eagle Creek near Beech Creek Station 11.0 6.28 -0.0 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 WB Susquehanna at Renovo 16.0 0.05 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 WB Susquehanna at Lock Haven 21.0 7.9 0.0 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 Kettle Creek at Cross Fork - 0.71 -0.0 - - - - - Kettle Creek on Alvin R Bush Dam - 841.31 -0.1 - - - - - Kettle Creek near Westport - 1.88 -0.1 - - - - - Young Womens Creek near Renovo - 1.7 -0.0 - - - - - Columbia County Huntington Creek at Jonestown - 1.68 0.0 - - - - - Fishing Creek at Grassmere Park - 2.64 0.0 - - - - - Fishing Creek near Bloomsburg - 2.05 -0.0 - - - - - Cumberland County Big Spring Creek above Big Spring - - - - - - - - Conodoguinet Creek near Hogestown 8.0 1.2 -0.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Mountain Creek near Pine Grove Furnace - 4.0 -0.0 - - - - - Yellow Breeches Creek near Camp Hill 7.0 1.11 0.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Dauphin County Swatara Creek near Hershey 7.0 1.56 0.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Swatara Creek at Middletown 11.0 1.16 -0.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Paxton Creek near Glenwood - 2.1 0.0 - - - - - Conewago Creek near Bellaire - 0.19 -0.0 - - - - - Conewago Creek near Falmouth - 3.74 -0.0 - - - - - Elk County West Branch Clarion River at Wilcox - 1.18 -0.0 - - - - - East Branch Clarion River Lake near Glen Hazel - 1629.05 -0.3 - - - - - Weir 1 at East Branch Clarion River Dam - 2.94 0.0 - - - - - East Branch Clarion River Lake at Glen Hazel - 2.42 0.0 - - - - - Clarion River at Johnsonburg 7.0 1.74 0.0 - - - - - Clarion River at Ridgway 16.0 3.14 0.0 - - - - - Fulton County Tonoloway Creek near Needmore - 2.91 -0.0 - - - - - Huntingdon County Little Juniata River at Spruce Creek 8.0 1.91 0.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 Aughwick Creek near Three Springs - 2.52 0.0 - - - - - Aughwick Creek at Shirleysburg 10.0 2.77 0.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 Juniata River at Huntingdon 12.0 1.43 -0.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Raystown Branch Juniata on Raystown Lake Dam - 785.9 -0.0 - - - - - Raystown Lake Below Dam - 3.36 0.0 - - - - - Juniata River at Mapleton Depot 20.0 2.4 -0.0 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 Juniata County Tuscarora Creek near Port Royal 10.0 3.27 -0.0 - - - - - Lancaster County Chiques Creek at Manheim 8.0 - - - - - - - Little Chiques Creek at Mount Joy 12.0 - - - - - - - Cocalico Creek at Ephrata 8.0 - - - - - - - Conestoga River at Lancaster 11.0 2.9 0.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 Big Springs Run near Mylin Corners - 3.73 0.0 - - - - - Little Conestoga at Flory Mills 10.0 - - - - - - - Conestoga River at Conestoga - 0.99 -0.0 - - - - - Pequea Creek at Paradise - - - - - - - - Pequea Creek near Ronks - 2.42 0.0 - - - - - Pequea Creek above Martic Forge - 3.37 -0.0 - - - - - Lebanon County Quittapahilla Creek near Bellegrove - 3.11 0.0 - - - - - Swatara Creek near Inwood - 1.74 -0.0 - - - - - Swatara Creek at Harper Tavern 9.0 0.11 -0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Lycoming County Pine Creek at Cedar Run 12.0 1.42 -0.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Pine Creek at Jersey Mills - 0.88 - - - - - - Blockhouse Creek near English Center - -0.08 -0.0 - - - - - Little Pine Creek at Little Pine Dam - - - - - - - - Pine Creek near Waterville - 1.82 -0.0 - - - - - WB Susquehanna at Jersey Shore 26.0 1.4 - 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 WB Susquehanna at Williamsport 20.0 0.28 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 WB Susquehanna near Muncy 20.0 3.24 -0.4 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 Larrys Creek at Salladsburg - 0.37 - - - - - - Lycoming Creek at Roaring Branch - 1.2 - - - - - - Lycoming Creek above Deer Crossing - 2.35 - - - - - - Lycoming Creek at Ralston Bridge - 0.71 - - - - - - Lycoming Creek at Bodines - 1.91 - - - - - - Lycoming Creek near Trout Run - 1.76 -0.0 - - - - - Lycoming Creek at Hepburnville - 0.57 - - - - - - Lycoming Creek near Williamsport - 1.61 0.0 - - - - - Loyalsock Creek at Barbours - 3.2 -0.0 - - - - - Loyalsock Creek at Loyalsockville 12.0 0.81 - 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Muncy Creek at Glen Mawr - 1.95 - - - - - - Muncy Creek at Hughsville - 1.65 - - - - - - Little Muncy Creek at Lairdsville - 1.72 - - - - - - Muncy Creek at Muncy 15.0 7.86 0.0 - - - - - McKean County Tunungwant Creek near South Bradford - 0.34 0.0 - - - - - Allegheny River at Port Allegany - 2.24 -0.0 - - - - - Allegheny River at Eldred 23.0 2.3 -0.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 Kinzua Creek above Guffey - 2.94 -0.0 - - - - - Sevenmile Run near Rasselas - 1.7 -0.0 - - - - - Mifflin County Juniata River at Lewiston 23.0 2.96 -0.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 Kishacoquillas Creek at Reedsville - 2.13 -0.0 - - - - - Montour County Chillisquaque Creek at Washingtonville 9.0 0.47 -0.0 - - - - - Northumberland County WB Susquehanna at Lewisburg 18.0 1.47 -0.0 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 Chillisquaque Creek near Potts Grove - 18.75 -0.0 - - - - - East Mahantango Creek near Dalmatia - 1.27 0.0 - - - - - Perry County Juniata River at Newport 22.0 3.44 -0.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Bixler Run near Loysville - 2.94 -0.0 - - - - - Shermans Creek at Shermans Dale 9.0 1.08 -0.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Potter County Oswayo Creek at Shinglehouse - 3.65 -0.0 - - - - - East Fork Sinnemahoning Creek at Wharton Township - 3.46 -0.0 - - - - - First Fork Sinnemahoning Creek at Wharton - 4.25 -0.0 - - - - - Schuylkill County Swatara Creek near Pine Grove - 2.69 -0.0 - - - - - Little Schuylkill River at Tamaqua - 2.06 0.0 - - - - - Schuylkill River at Landingville 8.0 2.87 -0.0 - - - - - Snyder County Susquehanna River at Sunbury 24.0 6.07 0.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 Penns Creek at Penns Creek 8.0 1.7 -0.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 Somerset County Casselman River at Markleton 9.0 0.72 0.0 - - - - - Laurel Hill Creek at Ursina 5.0 0.77 0.0 - - - - - Youghigheny Dam Buttonhook 1468.0 1369.64 -0.5 - - - - - Youghiogheny River at Confluence 12.0 1.64 0.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 Sullivan County Loyalsock Creek at Forksville - 1.89 - - - - - - Loyalsock Creek at Hillsgrove - 0.21 0.0 - - - - - Muncy Creek near Sonestown - 2.28 - - - - - - Tioga County Tioga River at Mansfield 12.0 -0.29 -0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 Tioga River at Tioga Dam - 1081.28 0.0 - - - - - Tioga River downstream of dam - 0.41 -0.4 - - - - - Tioga River at Tioga Junction 15.0 6.59 -0.2 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 Corey Creek near Mainesburg - 1.39 -0.0 - - - - - Crooked Creek at Middlebury Center - 38.9 -0.0 - - - - - Cowanesque River at Westfield - -0.28 -0.0 - - - - - Cowanesque River at Elkland - 16.19 0.0 - - - - - Cowanesque Dam on Cowanesque - 1080.06 -0.0 - - - - - Cowanesque River near Lawrenceville 13.0 7.45 0.0 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 Union County Penns Creek at Penns Creek 8.0 1.7 -0.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 WB Susquehanna River at Allenwood 24.0 7.22 0.0 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 WB Susquehanna at West Milton 19.0 0.98 -0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 WB Susquehanna at Lewisburg 18.0 1.47 -0.0 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 Warren County Allegheny River on Kinzua Dam 1341.0 1308.92 -0.7 - - - - - Allegheny River at Kinzua Dam Outflow - 8.74 0.0 - - - - - Conewango Creek at Russell 9.0 2.19 0.0 - - - - - Allegheny River at Warren 14.0 3.36 0.0 - - - - - Brokenstraw Creek at Youngsville - 1.06 0.0 - - - - - York County Fishing Creek at Goldsboro - 2.37 0.0 - - - - - West Conewago Creek near Manchester - 2.31 -0.0 - - - - - Codorus Creek near Saginaw - 1.8 0.0 - - - - - Fishing Creek at Craley - 3.81 -0.0 - - - - - Codorus Creek at Spring Grove - 0.94 -0.1 - - - - - Codorus Creek on Indian Rock Dam 435.0 371.48 -0.2 - - - - - Codorus Creek near York - 2.07 -0.2 - - - - -

Additional Resources

• Weather Prediction Center (WPC)
• Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC)
• National Water Prediction Service (NWPS)
• Ensemble River Forecasts

Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook	Day 1 Tornado Outlook	Day 1 Severe Wind Outlook	Day 1 Severe Hail Outlook
SPC Day 1 Outlook Narrative
Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook	Day 2 Tornado Outlook	Day 2 Severe Wind Outlook	Day 2 Severe Hail Outlook
SPC Day 2 Outlook Narrative
Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook	Day 3 Probability of Severe Weather
SPC Day 3 Outlook Narrative

Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook	Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook	Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook	Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook	Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook
SPC Day 4-8 Outlook Narrative

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Additional Resources

• Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
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• Local Winter Weather Page (includes Probabilistic Snowfall Forecasts)
• Latest Snowfall Reports | Analysis

72 Hour Snowfall Forecast	72 Hour Ice Accumulation Forecast	Winter Storm Severity Index

72 Hour Forecast Snow Amounts (12 Hour Periods)
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72 Hour Forecast Ice Accumulation (12 Hour Periods)
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Winter Storm Severity Index Elements
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Day 1 Snowfall Greater Than 4"	Day 2 Snowfall Greater Than 4"	Day 3 Snowfall Greater Than 4"
Day 1 Freezing Rain Greater than 1/4"	Day 2 Freezing Rain Greater than 1/4"	Day 3 Freezing Rain Greater than 1/4"

Day 1 Winter Storm Outlook	Day 2 Winter Storm Outlook	Day 3 Winter Storm Outlook	Day 4 Winter Storm Outlook

Day 4 Experimental Winter Weather Outlook	Day 5 Experimental Winter Weather Outlook	Day 6 Experimental Winter Weather Outlook	Day 7 Experimental Winter Weather Outlook

Additional Resources

• National Snowfall Analysis - NOHRSC
• Weather Prediction Center - Winter Weather Desk
• Winter Storm Severity Index
• Pennsylvania Travel Info from 511PA

Observed Temperatures

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Maps Courtesy of the PA State Climatologist: climate.met.psu.edu

Forecast Temperatures

Today's High Temperatures	Today's High Temperature Departure From Normal	Tonight's Low Temperatures	Tonight's Low Temperature Departure From Normal
Tomorrow's High Temperatures	Tomorrow's High Temperature Departure From Normal	Tomorrow Night's Low Temperatures	Tomorrow Night's Low Temperature Departure From Normal
Day 3 High Temperatures	Day 3 High Temperature Departure From Normal	Night 3 Low Temperatures	Night 3 Low Temperature Departure From Normal
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Forecast Wind/Apparent Temperature Forecasts

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Today's Minimum Wind Chill	Tomorrow's Minimum Wind Chill	Day 3 Minimum Wind Chill
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Additional Resources

• NWS HeatRisk
• WPC Maximum Heat Index Forecasts
• NWS State College Heat Page

Spot Forecasts

PA Bureau of Forestry Fire Danger Maps

Fire Weather Forecasts

Observations and Forecast Graphics

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NWS State College Forecast Maps

Day 1 Minimum Relative Humidity	Day 1 Maximum Sustained Wind	Day 1 Maximum Wind Gust
Tomorrow's Minimum Relative Humidity	Tomorrow's Maximum Sustained Wind	Tomorrow's Maximum Wind Gust
Day 3 Minimum Relative Humidity	Day 3 Maximum Sustained Wind	Day 3 Maximum Wind Gust
Click here for RH, Wind, and Wind Gust forecasts for the next 7 days
Click here for probabilistic RH and Wind Gust forecasts for the next 5 days

Wildland Fire Assessment System Maps

Haines Index (Lower Atmospheric Stability)

WFAS Observed Fire Danger Rating

WFAS Forecast Fire Danger Rating

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Click here for a map of Observed Fire Danger from PA DCNR
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Click here for a map of Forecast Fire Danger from PA DCNR

Storm Prediction Center Maps

SPC Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook	SPC Fire Weather Day 2 Outlook	SPC Fire Weather Day 3-8 Outlook
Click here to view Fire Weather Outlook maps for Pennsylvania for the next 8 days

Remote Automatic Weather Stations (RAWS) in Pennsylvania

National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) Forecasts (FWM Text Product)

Additional Resources

• Pennsylvania Annual Operating Plan for Fire Weather
• NWS National Fire Weather Page
• HRRR Smoke Visualization
• Pennsylvania DCNR Wildfire Page
• Eastern Area Predictive Service Areas RAWS Plots
• Eastern Area Coordination Center Weekly Outlook
• Eastern Area Coordination Center Monthly/Seasonal Outlook
• National Interagency Coordination Center Outlooks Page

Seasonal Drought Outlook	Palmer Drought Severity Index

Additional Information

• Drought Monitor - Pennsylvania
• Drought Information Portal - Pennsylvania
• Pennsylvania Drought Condition Monitoring - USGS
• Additional Precipitation Needed to End Drought

For the latest forecast information, visit:

• NWS State College Tropical Page
• National Hurricane Center
• NWS Flood Inundation Mapping Locations

Click Here for The Tropical Weather Outlook Discussion

For the latest forecast information, visit:

• Space Weather Prediction Center

Space Weather Overview	Aurora Forecast
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Days 3-7 Hazards Outlook (WPC)

Days 8-14 Hazards Outlook (CPC)	Days 8-14 Risk of Hazardous Temperatures (CPC)	Days 8-14 Risk of Heavy Precipitation (CPC)

6-10 Day Temperature Outlook (CPC)	6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook (CPC)
8-14 Day Temperature Outlook (CPC)	8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook (CPC)
**Experimental** Week 3-4 Temperature Outlook (CPC)	**Experimental** Week 3-4 Precipitation Outlook (CPC)
One Month Temperature Outlook (CPC)	One Month Precipitation Outlook (CPC)
Three Month Temperature Outlook (CPC)	Three Month Precipitation Outlook (CPC)

Additional Resources

• Climate Prediction Center
• CPC Teleconnections Page

Weather Type and Coverage Forecast

**Prototype Under Development** **Not to be relied on for operational decision making**       Detailed information on the Precipitation Type Graphic can be located here.

Additional Resources

• Graphical Point Forecasts Page