Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1250 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
...2024 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...
...Near normal to below normal likelihood for flooding across central
and southeast Illinois this spring...
This flood outlook covers the Lincoln Hydrologic Service Area (HSA)
which encompasses 35 counties in central and southeast Illinois. It
includes the following rivers...
- Illinois River from Henry to Beardstown
- Spoon River from London Mills to Seville
- Mackinaw River at Congerville
- Sangamon River from Monticello to Chandlerville
- Salt Creek at Greenview
- Little Wabash River near Clay City
- Embarras River from Ste. Marie to Lawrenceville
These flood outlooks are issued in late winter and early spring, in
addition to the 7 day river forecasts that are issued when river forecast
locations are in flood or are forecast to rise above flood stage. They
are based on multi-season scenarios from more than 30 years of
climatological data, current streamflows, soil conditions, snow pack, as
well as short/long range weather forecasts.
FLOOD OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS...
- Risk of flooding this spring is near normal to below normal across
central and southeast Illinois.
- Factors limiting flood potential this spring include: normal to below
normal streamflows, no local or upstream snowpack, thawed soils, deep
layer soil moisture deficits.
- Springtime rains expected to be the primary driver for flooding.
WINTER WEATHER REVIEW...
--December--
Statewide Temperatures/Precipitation:
Information, courtesy of the Illinois State Climatologist, shows that the
preliminary statewide average December temperature was 39.2 degrees, 7.6
degrees above normal and the 3rd warmest on record going back to 1895.
For the second time in three years, Illinois experienced an extremely
mild December. All but three days were warmer than normal in Decatur, and
several days in the second and fourth weeks of the month were 10 to 20
degrees warmer than normal.
This was the 2nd warmest December in Rockford, the 3rd warmest in Peoria,
and the 4th warmest in Chicago and Moline. None of the more than 120 NWS
observing stations in Illinois recorded a low temperature in the single
digits. Many places hit the freezing mark only a handful of nights.
December average temperatures ranged from the low 30s in northern
Illinois to the low 40s in southern Illinois, between 6 and 10 degrees
above normal. The warmest place in the state was Du Quoin with an average
December temperature of 46.1 degrees. The coolest was Stockton in Jo
Daviess County with an average December temperature of 33.9 degrees. It
is important to note that the nighttime low temperatures in December were
much higher than normal. The preliminary average December minimum
temperature is 32.2 degrees, which would be the 2nd highest on record
statewide.
The mild December weather broke 20 daily high maximum temperature records
and 99 daily high minimum temperature records across Illinois! No daily
low maximum or daily low minimum temperature records were broken.
The preliminary statewide average total December precipitation was 2.99
inches, 0.56 inches above normal and the 30th wettest on record statewide.
The first month of climatological winter brought a more active storm
track to the Midwest than for most of the fall. December total
precipitation ranged from just over 4 inches in parts of northern
Illinois to less than 1 inch in parts of far southern Illinois. Most of
northern Illinois was around 1 inch wetter than normal, while most of the
state south of interstate 64 was 1 to 3 inches drier than normal in
December.
As is often the case in milder Decembers, snowfall was hard to come by
across Illinois. Total snowfall ranged from around 4 inches in far
northwest Illinois to less than a tenth of an inch in southern Illinois.
This was between 1 and 8 inches below normal.
Local Temperatures/Precipitation/River Conditions:
Temperatures for December were above normal across the ILX Hydrologic
Service Area (HSA). They generally ranged from 7.5 degrees to 9 degrees
above normal. Daily high temperatures ranged from the teens to the
upper 60s. Normal highs for December typically range from the low 30s
to the mid 40s. Low temperatures across the area ranged from the mid
30s to the low 50s. They typically range from the teens to the upper 20s.
Rainfall totals across most of the ILX HSA were above normal for the
month of December. However, far southeastern areas saw below normal
precipitation. Monthly precipitation ranged from 1.68 inches in
Hutsonville to 4.07 inches in Fisher. These totals ranged from 1.38
inches below normal to 1.62 inches above normal, respectively. This
equates to roughly 55 to 165 percent of normal precipitation for the
month.
The above normal precipitation in northern Illinois allowed for drought
improvement in those areas. In contrast, conditions worsened across
southern sections of the state, due to below normal precipitation. While
D0 (Abnormally Dry) and D1 (Moderate Drought) conditions improved
overall, areas of D2 (Severe Drought) expanded from 6 percent to 19
percent month over month. This was most evident across portions of west-
central Illinois as well as the southern third of the state.
With low streamflows and below normal soil moisture conditions, the above
normal December precipitation was not enough to cause flooding issues
across central and southeast Illinois.
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monthly average streamflow values for
December show overall near normal streamflows across mainly the northern
half of Illinois. Flows across the southern half of the state were
overall in the below normal to much below normal categories.
--January--
Statewide Temperatures/Precipitation:
The Illinois State Climatologist notes that the preliminary statewide
average January temperature was 25.7 degrees, 1.0 degree above normal and
tied for the 57th coldest on record going back to 1895.
The very mild December weather spilled over into the new year as the
first 10 to 12 days of January had temperatures near to slightly above
normal. Extremely cold air moved into Illinois following a series of
winter storms and brought frigid weather across the state for the middle
part of the month. Daily temperature departures from normal showed
average temperatures were 10 to 30 degrees below normal. Some of the
coldest temperatures from that week included -25 degrees in Altona and
-19 degrees in Moline. Strong northerly and northwesterly winds added
to the cold and pushed wind chills into the -30 to -40 degree range.
Water main breaks were reported across the state, and several school
districts closed for multiple days because of the cold. Numerous deaths
in the state were attributed to the cold as well. Temperatures
moderated in the final week of the month, providing a well-deserved
break from an Arctic winter.
January temperatures ranged from the low 20s in northern Illinois to the
mid 30s in southern Illinois. The southern half of the state was 1 to 3
degrees colder than normal. Despite the extreme cold mid-month, northern
Illinois was 1 to 2 degrees warmer than normal. The coldest point in the
state in January was Stockton in Jo Daviess County at 20.1 degrees. The
“warmest” point was Olmstead in Pulaski County at 32.7 degrees.
The preliminary statewide average total January precipitation was 4.50
inches, 2.19 inches below normal and tied for the eighth wettest on
record statewide.
Precipitation was hard to come by for much of Illinois during the last
few months of 2023. Drought impacts are usually minimal in winter, but
there were many reports of unusually dry soils and low streams and
ponds at the start of the new year. While January did not completely
replenish all water lost last year, it took a big bite out of the drought.
January total precipitation ranged from around 2.5 inches in northwest
Illinois to nearly 10 inches in far southern Illinois. Everywhere in
Illinois was wetter than normal in January, to the tune of 1 to 4 inches,
between 150 and 300 percent of normal monthly precipitation. It was the
eighth wettest January on record in Champaign and Centralia, both with
over 5 inches total.
Depending on where you are in Illinois, January is either the first or
second snowiest month of the year. If you live north or west of the
Illinois River, this was the case this past January. For the rest of
Illinois, January just brought more cold rain. Total January snowfall
ranged from less than half an inch in southern Illinois to over 25
inches in northwest Illinois. The latter was 4 to 15 inches above normal.
Most of the snow in January came immediately ahead of or during the
extreme cold in the middle of the month. Moline picked up more snowfall
between January 8 and January 18 than in all of 2023. January was the
second snowiest on record in Moline, only less than 2019. The 12th of
January was also the second snowiest day on record in Moline, with 15.4
inches. It was only less than on January 3, 1971.
The heavy snowfall in mid-January pushed the northwest corner of
Illinois 1 to 6 inches above normal on season-to-date snowfall.
Meanwhile, most of central and southern Illinois had 2 to 8 inches
below normal snowfall by that time.
Local Temperatures/Precipitation/River Conditions:
Temperature averages for January were overall near normal across the ILX
Hydrologic Service Area (HSA). Temperatures generally ranged from 1
degree below normal to 1 degree above. Daily high temperatures ranged
from the single digits below zero to the mid 50s. Normal highs for
January typically range into the low to mid 30s. Low temperatures across
the area ranged from low teens below zero to the mid 30s. They typically
range into the teens.
Liquid precipitation totals across the ILX HSA were well above normal for
the month of January. Monthly precipitation ranged from 2.87 inches in
Mackinaw to 6.32 inches in Casey. These totals ranged from 0.70 to 3.07
inches above normal, respectively. This equates to roughly 130 to 195
percent of normal precipitation for the month.
The above normal precipitation for January continued to erode drought
coverage across the state. Only areas of D0 (Abnormally Dry) conditions
remain across portions of southern and west-central Illinois. Drought
coverage dropped from to 54 to 17 percent of the state.
With the above normal precipitation, we did see minor to moderate river
flooding. However, it was not widespread and began in the latter half
of the month. Flooding was seen along the Illinois River, and portions
of the Little Wabash and Sangamon rivers...and largely continued into
February.
Bitterly cold temperatures mid-month caused appreciable ice development
on area rivers. This was followed by a rapid warm-up along with
widespread heavy rain. The frozen ground led to significant runoff,
which caused area rivers to swell and mechanically break up the ice.
The higher flows caused downstream movement of the ice. As a result,
there were a few instances of ice jams along portions of the Mackinaw
and Sangamon Rivers. Thankfully, impacts from these ice jams were minor
and short-lived.
USGS monthly streamflow for January shows overall near normal
streamflows across mainly the southern half of Illinois as well as
areas in the northwest. Flows across remainder of the state were
overall in the above normal to much above normal categories.
--February--
Statewide Temperatures/Precipitation:
Information, courtesy of the Illinois State Climatologist, shows that
the preliminary statewide average February temperature was 39.4 degrees,
8.3 degrees above normal and the 3rd warmest on record going back to 1895.
February average temperatures ranged from the mid-30s in northern
Illinois to the high 40s in southern Illinois, between 6 and 12 degrees
above normal. Several stations saw daily high temperatures in the 80s in
February, including 83 degrees in Belleville and 80 in Springfield. A
strong cold front in the last week of the month dropped temperatures from
the 70s and 80s into the teens and 20s. Several places saw 50 to 60
degree declines in less than 24 hours. Overall, the warmest place in the
state was Du Quoin, with an average temperature of 49.1 degrees, and the
coldest place was Stockton in Jo Daviess County with an average
temperature of 34.8 degrees.
The mild weather in February broke 186 daily high maximum temperature
records. These included a 75-degree high in DeKalb on February 28, which
beat the previous daily high record by a full 12 degrees. There were
also 43 daily high minimum temperature records broken. Twenty-two
locations in Illinois set new all-time February high temperature records,
including 77 degrees in Peoria, 77 in Charleston, 76 in Moline, and 73 in
Rockford. This past February was the warmest on record in Chicago,
Rockford, Moline, and Peoria. It was a top 5 warmest February virtually
everywhere in the state.
The preliminary statewide average total February precipitation was 0.53
inches, 1.58 inches below normal and the 4th driest on record statewide.
Total February precipitation ranged from less than half an inch in parts
of western Illinois to around 3 inches in parts of northern Illinois.
Most of the state was 1 to 3 inches drier than normal in February, while
only a narrow stretch of northern Illinois caught more than normal
precipitation.
February was the 7th driest on record in Rockford (0.29 inches total),
the 8th driest in Moline (0.26 inches total), the 6th driest in
Springfield (0.51 inches total), the 3rd driest in Normal (0.14 inches
total), the 3rd driest in Quincy (0.07 inches), and 4th driest in
Carbondale (0.74 inches). In fact, February tied for the 7th driest
month on record (for any month) in Quincy, whose record stretches back
to 1901.
February total snowfall ranged from less than two-tenths of an inch in
northwest Illinois to just over 5 inches in central Illinois. Only the
Interstate 70 corridor was above normal on February snowfall, while
most of northern Illinois was 4 to 10 inches below normal.
Local Temperatures/Precipitation/River Conditions:
Temperature averages for February were well above normal across the ILX
Hydrologic Service Area (HSA). Temperatures generally ranged from 7 to
11 degrees above normal. Daily high temperatures ranged from the teens
to the low 80s. Normal highs for February typically range into the mid
30s to the mid 40s. Low temperatures across the area ranged from the
single digits to the low 50s. They typically range from the teens to
the upper 20s.
Rainfall totals across the ILX HSA were below normal for the month of
February. Monthly precipitation generally ranged from 0.16 inches in
Galesburg to 1.39 inches in Casey. These totals ranged from 1.71 to 1.21
inches below normal, respectively. This equates to roughly 10 to 55
percent of normal precipitation for the month.
The below normal precipitation for February caused a worsening of drought
conditions across much of Illinois. D0 (Abnormally Dry) conditions
expanded to nearly 75 percent of the state. We also saw a reemergence of
D1 (Moderate Drought) conditions, covering a little over 7 percent. This
was separated into 2 small pockets in west-central and southwest Illinois.
There was flooding along the Illinois and Little Wabash Rivers that
carried over from January. However, all river flooding came to an end by
the third week of February. With the dry conditions, no further flooding
occurred across the area.
The USGS monthly streamflow for February shows overall near normal
streamflows across the northern half of Illinois with below normal to
much below normal streamflows across the southern half of the state. The
main exception was along portions of the Illinois river Basin, where
streamflows lingered in the much above normal category.
| Winter Precipitation |
Winter Snowfall |
Average Temperature |
| (Percent of Mean) |
(Percent of Mean) |
(Departure from Mean) |
 |
 |
 |
--March--
Local Temperatures/Precipitation/River Conditions:
Thus far, the month of March has seen daily average temperatures that are
well above normal. They generally range from around 8 to 11 degrees above
average across the ILX Hydrologic Service Area (HSA). In contrast,
rainfall totals have been a mixed bag so far this March. They were near
normal to above normal across the northern half of Illinois and below
normal across the southern half. Overall, they range from nearly a half
inch below normal to around 1 inch above normal across the ILX HSA.
Overall drought conditions have improved since the end of March. We have
seen some improvement in D0 (Abnormally Dry) conditions across portions
of central and northern Illinois. However, we did see some expansion of
D1 (Moderate Drought) conditions in west-central and southern Illinois.
SOIL MOISTURE AND FROST DEPTH CONDITIONS...
Shallow soil moisture conditions across Illinois are near normal for this
time of year. However, deep layer soil conditions (down to 39 inches)
continue to show an appreciable deficit across the entire state.
Drought conditions in Illinois have notably improved through the winter
season as a whole. The drought recovery is thanks to overall above normal
temperatures that minimized periods of frozen soils in addition to
precipitation that fell in form of rain.
In late November, nearly 40 percent of Illinois was experiencing D0
(Abnormally Dry) conditions with about 40 percent in the D1 (Moderate
Drought) category...or worse. As of the latest drought monitor issuance
(March 14th), D0 conditions extended from west-central Illinois into
southern Illinois. There were also pockets of D1 conditions within
those same areas. D0 covers nearly 35 percent of the state with D1
covering a little more than 20 percent.
With overall above normal temperatures this winter, frost was afforded
little opportunity to develop or persist across the area. One exception
was the Arctic outbreak we had in mid-January. That stretch of frigid
temperatures caused frost to develop down to 6 to 10 inches across our
service area. However, the return to above normal temperatures quickly
thawed the soils across the area and they remain unchanged.
The lack of frost will allow for deeper infiltration of rainfall into
the soil. As a result, runoff potential will be reduced until soils
moisten up more thoroughly. If we get into a longer duration, wet
weather pattern then runoff potential and risk of flooding can increase
with time.
RIVER CONDITIONS...
River flooding has not been an issue thus far in March. Information,
courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), shows 14-day average
streamflows are overall near normal across most of central and northern
Illinois. Much of southern Illinois as well as portions of west-central
and northwest Illinois are in the below normal to much below normal range.
WEATHER OUTLOOKS...
The 8 to 14 day outlook (Mar 21 to Mar 27) favors near normal
temperatures in Illinois. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored
over the same time period...with the highest likelihood across far
northern Illinois.
The most recent 90 day outlook for April / May / June favors above
normal temperatures across Illinois. Above normal precipitation is
slightly favored across far southeastern Illinois while no dominant
trends are noted for the remainder of the state.
FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...
The risk of flooding this spring is near normal to below normal across
central and southeast Illinois. Any flooding that does occur would
most likely be in the minor category with isolated moderate flooding
possible.
Currently, no river flooding is impacting Illinois as streamflows are
near normal to below normal. However, recent rains are expected to cause
some elevated flows in the near-term along area rivers, creeks and
streams. Soils are thawed with shallow moisture conditions near normal.
In contrast, deeper soils continue to show an appreciable deficit. As a
whole, these conditions are not contributory toward enhanced flood
potential this spring.
Spring rains will be the primary driver of flooding this year since
other hydrometeorological conditions are not significant contributing
factors. Again, expectations are for isolated minor to moderate
flooding this spring. However, if we get into a wet springtime pattern
then more widespread flooding is possible, but would most likely be
minor in severity.
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In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Illinois River
Henry 23.0 24.0 31.0 : 57 56 43 49 <5 <5
Peoria 18.0 22.0 28.0 : 66 64 27 30 <5 <5
Peoria L/D 447.0 449.0 455.0 : 56 55 28 33 <5 <5
Havana 14.0 17.0 23.0 : 88 84 65 61 12 16
Beardstown 14.0 18.0 28.0 : 86 81 53 55 <5 5
:Mackinaw River
Congerville 13.0 14.0 20.0 : 19 20 15 16 <5 <5
:Spoon River
London Mills 15.0 21.0 24.0 : 47 48 6 <5 <5 <5
Seville 22.0 25.0 30.0 : 35 40 20 16 <5 <5
:Sangamon River
Monticello 13.0 17.0 20.0 : 70 70 7 6 <5 <5
Riverton 23.0 26.0 29.0 : 16 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
Petersburg 23.0 24.0 33.0 : 22 25 18 17 <5 <5
:Salt Creek
Greenview 16.0 17.0 20.0 : 16 17 11 11 5 <5
:Sangamon River
Oakford 471.0 472.9 478.5 : 28 35 17 20 <5 <5
Chandlerville 456.6 459.0 462.0 : 44 47 21 21 <5 <5
:Embarras River
Lawrenceville 30.0 37.0 41.0 : 54 75 15 17 <5 <5
Ste. Marie 19.0 20.0 27.0 : 31 32 23 23 <5 <5
:Little Wabash River
Clay City 18.0 22.0 25.0 : 82 83 21 21 <5 <5
:Vermilion River
Danville 18.0 22.0 28.0 : 25 29 15 12 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Illinois River
Henry 16.9 17.4 20.6 23.6 25.7 27.2 28.3
Peoria 13.4 13.6 16.8 19.9 22.2 23.5 24.9
Peoria L/D 439.4 440.3 444.1 447.3 449.7 450.8 452.2
Havana 13.7 13.8 15.5 18.4 21.2 23.6 25.5
Beardstown 13.1 13.5 15.2 18.3 23.2 25.3 27.1
:Mackinaw River
Congerville 3.8 5.2 6.4 9.2 11.5 16.0 16.4
:Spoon River
London Mills 6.4 8.5 10.5 14.2 18.2 20.2 22.3
Seville 10.7 12.3 15.0 18.6 24.3 26.1 28.6
:Sangamon River
Monticello 10.5 11.4 12.8 13.6 14.9 16.4 17.5
Riverton 12.4 14.9 17.0 18.5 21.7 23.8 25.9
Petersburg 10.7 12.4 14.3 16.2 21.5 25.7 27.2
:Salt Creek
Greenview 4.4 5.6 8.1 10.4 12.8 17.3 20.2
:Sangamon River
Oakford 461.6 463.4 465.8 468.0 471.6 473.9 475.5
Chandlerville 449.0 450.9 453.4 455.5 458.4 460.5 461.8
:Embarras River
Lawrenceville 23.4 24.5 26.8 30.6 34.0 38.4 40.8
Ste. Marie 6.5 8.7 11.3 16.6 19.7 21.6 22.7
:Little Wabash River
Clay City 11.9 16.3 19.4 20.4 21.7 22.9 24.4
:Vermilion River
Danville 7.4 8.0 10.3 13.9 17.8 24.1 25.7
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Illinois River
Henry 15.3 15.2 15.0 14.9 14.7 14.4 14.3
Peoria 12.4 12.3 12.1 12.0 10.7 10.6 10.6
Peoria L/D 434.2 433.8 432.6 432.0 431.0 430.3 430.0
Havana 7.6 7.3 6.0 5.6 5.0 4.9 4.8
Beardstown 10.7 10.4 10.1 9.8 9.6 9.1 9.1
:Mackinaw River
Congerville 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9
:Spoon River
London Mills 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.9
Seville 7.0 6.8 6.3 6.0 5.6 5.2 4.9
:Sangamon River
Monticello 6.8 6.6 6.3 5.9 5.4 5.1 5.0
Riverton 7.0 6.6 5.7 4.9 4.3 3.9 3.6
Petersburg 7.3 6.8 6.3 5.7 5.4 5.2 5.1
:Salt Creek
Greenview 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.1
:Sangamon River
Oakford 458.9 458.4 457.8 457.3 456.9 456.5 456.4
Chandlerville 446.2 445.7 445.1 444.6 444.1 443.8 443.7
:Embarras River
Lawrenceville 18.3 18.2 17.9 17.7 17.3 17.1 17.0
Ste. Marie 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.4
:Little Wabash River
Clay City 6.4 5.7 5.2 4.8 4.3 3.8 3.4
:Vermilion River
Danville 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.8
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
FLOOD TERMINOLOGY...
Minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property damage.
However, some public inconvenience is possible.
Moderate flooding is used to indicate some inundation of structures and
roads near the river. Transfer of property to a higher elevation or
another location may be necessary. Some evacuations may also be required.
Major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundation and property
damage, usually characterized by the evacuation of people and livestock
and closure of both primary and secondary roads.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...
Visit our web page at www.weather.gov/ilx for more official NWS river
and weather information. To view graphical river information, including
forecasts, select Rivers and Lakes from along the top menu bar.
Graphics are available for all forecast points in the ILX Hydrologic
Service Area.
For 30 to 90 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, visit the web
page of the Climate Prediction Center at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. This
is the third and final issuance of the 2024 Spring Flood Outlook for
central and southeast Illinois. The NOAA National Spring Flood Outlook
will be issued on Thursday, March 21st.
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NWS Lincoln
Hydrologic Service Area
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Drought Monitor
Issued January 4, 2024
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Drought Monitor
Issued February 8, 2024
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Drought Monitor
Issued March 14, 2024
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Frost Depth Conditions
March 14, 2024
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Soil Moisture Percentile Map
March 14, 2024 |
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Modeled Snow Depth
March 14, 2024 |
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Modeled Snow Depth - Departure from Normal
March 14, 2024 |
Modeled Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)
March 14, 2024 |
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NCRFC Ranked Simulated SWE
Mar 11, 2024 |
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| Spring Leaf Index Anomaly Map |
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Extended Range Outlooks
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Greater than 25% chance
of exceeding river flood levels (Mar/Apr/May)
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Greater than 50% chance
of exceeding river flood levels (Mar/Apr/May)
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Greater than 75% chance
of exceeding river flood levels (Mar/Apr/May)
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Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
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Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)
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National Water Prediction Service (NWPS)
Replacing AHPS (Mar 27th)
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