May 18 1995 SPC Outlook Day 1

ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 181900
MKC AC 181900

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 181900Z - 191200Z

REF WW NUMBER 0438...VALID TIL 2200Z
REF WW NUMBER 0439...VALID TIL 0000Z
REF WW NUMBER 0440...VALID TIL 0200Z
REF WW NUMBER 0441...VALID TIL 0000Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVR PTNS OF
MS..TN..IL..IND..KY..AND AL TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW GWO
30 N MEM 20 NW CGI STL 15 WSW DEC 15 NE HUF 15 E LUK
15 NW 5I3 35 E CHA 20 WNW BHM 30 NNE HEZ 25 NW GWO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SSE PSX 50 S CLL 35 WNW POE 25 NE MLU 50 ENE PBF P02 35 ENE VIH
40 ENE COU 10 E BRL 20 SE MMO 25 E TOL 25 ENE FKL 20 N JFK
...CONT... 15 ESE SAV 15 NW ABY 30 ESE CEW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LRD 45 SSE AUS
30 NE LFK 35 W MLU 15 NW PBF 25 E UNO 30 WNW TBN 30 S P35
30 NNE 3OI 20 E DBQ 25 ENE MKE 20 N MTC 10 NNE PSF ACK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE ISN 35 N P05
40 W MHN 15 WNW LHX 35 E ABQ 25 NW INW 10 SSW DRA 50 NE SAC
70 NE SVE 45 SSE BOI 20 S BTM 35 NW CTB.


...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
SHIFTING OF EMPHASIS FOR SVR TSTMS RMDR OF PD INTO MID MS/TN/LWR
OHIO VLY RGN WHERE SGFNT DESTABLIZATION OF AMS HAS OCCURRED AHD OF
FNTL BNDRY AND WHERE 80KT SPD MAX AT 500 MB IS LOCATED. INDICATIONS
OF STG UPWARD MOTION WITH LRG PRESS FALLS ARE OCRG ACRS PTNS OF
SRN/CNTRL IL INTO WRN KY WHERE INTENSE LN OF CNVTN WL BE MOVG INTO
VERY SHRTLY. DUE TO INCRG MID LVL CD ADVCTN AND ABUNDANT LOW LVL
MSTR...LI/S -8 TO -12 HAVE DVLPD FM THE LWR MS VLY NWD INTO CNTRL
IL. AS OF 18Z...THE MAIN SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVR E CNTRL MO WITH A
QSTNRY FRONT SNAKING EWD ACRS THE OHIO VLY INTO SRN PA/NJ. LOW LVL 
SHEAR INVOF SFC ALG/S OF WRM FNT HAS BEEN SUF TO ENHANCE TORNADIC
DVLPMT ACRS ERN MO. EXPC CONDITIONS TO RMN FVRBL FOR TORNADOES TO
DVLP THRU RMDR OF PD ACRS MID/LWR MS VLY EXTDG EWD INTO SRN IND/WRN
KY/WRN TN AS MID LVL SHEAR RMNS STG AND VORT MAX LIFTS ENEWD.
FARTHER S ALG CDFNT...SVR TSTMS WITH HAIL/DMGG WINDS AND ISOLD
TORNADOES MAIN THREAT AS CNVGNC OF EXTREMELY UNSTBL AMS AHD OF
CDFNT WITH LIS/ TO -10 CONTS. 

FARTHER E...A SEPARATE COMPLEX OF TSTMS OVR TN VLY. ON THE SERN
EDGE OF COMPLEX SOME PERSISTENT SVR TSTMS ARE MAINTAINING
THEMSELVES DESPITE MRGLLY SFC BASED INSTBY AS THEY TRACK NEWD INTO
CNTRL/SERN KY. A WELL DEFINED MID LVL DRY INTRUSION AND LOW LVL WRM
ADVCTN PAT APPRS TO DRIVING COMPLEX. ACTVTY SHUD MOV ENEWD INTO ERN
KY/WV DURG NEXT SVRL HOURS.   

A LN OF FAST-MOVG LN OF TSTMS IS QUICKLY RACING ACRS ERN
VA/CHESEPEAKE BAY AREA. AMS IS MDTLY UNSTBL AHD OF LN WITH LI/S TO
-6. EXPC ACTVTY TO BE OFFSHORE BFR 00Z. 
   
..GRANT.. 05/18/95

...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO PULL ERN EDGE OF THUNDER EWD INTO WRN
DAKOTAS/NEB PNHDL. WITH CNVGNC ALG NEXT CDFNT DROPPING DOWN OUT OF
CANADA AND AMS BCMG MDTLY UNSTBL..ISOLD TSTMS HV DVLPD.      
 
..GRANT.. 05/18/95