Day 1 Convective Outlook on May 18th, 1995

ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 180545
MKC AC 180545

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

REF WW 427...VALID TIL 0900Z
REF WW 428...VALID TIL 1000Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVR MOST OF TN...MUCH OF KY...SRN
PTNS OF WV...THE SRN HALF OF VA...ALL OF NC...AND PARTS OF NRN
MS...NRN AL...NRN GA...AND NRN SC. THE MDT RISK AREA IS TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ILM CAE GAD TUP DYR PAH EVV HTS WAL.

SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS
TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE SAV TOI BTR BPT HOU CLL TYR FSM
SGF SPI FWA CLE BFD GON.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PSX 30 NW AUS
DAL 15 ESE TUL 25 SW TOP 20 E LNK FOD 10 WNW JVL DTW BUF ALB PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HMN 30 NNW E74 IGM
45 SSE BIH 50 NNW SAC 35 SE LMT 15 WNW BKE MSO HLN 35 NE COD CPR
BFF 35 W IML 35 NE LIC PUB RTN HMN.


...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS CONTS TO SHOW A MOIST AND UNSTBL AMS ACRS A
LARGE PART OF THE SERN U.S. A SLOW MOVG CDFNT WAS LOCATED FM WRN NY
TO SWRN OK...AND A DRYLN EXTDD FM NR BVO TO JUST S OF DLF. DWPNTS
S OF THE FNT WERE IN THE 60S AND 70S...RESULTING IN LI/S IN THE -6
TO -8 RANGE. 

AT THE SFC...THERE IS LTL EWD PROGRESSION OF THE FNT THRUT THIS PD.
SVRL WAVES DVLP/TRACK NEWD ALG THE FNTL BNDRY...WHICH SHOULD HELP
ENHANCE LO LVL FORCING. CNVGNC ELSEWHERE ALG THE FNT IS NOT FCST TO
BE VERY STG...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTBY...EXPC STG/SVR TSTMS
TO DVLP. FCST CAPES ARE PROGD TO BE STGST IN PARTS OF THE LWR MS
VLY AND THE MID ATLC RGN.

H5 LO OVR SRN PARTS OF THE PLAINS CONTS MOVG NEWD DURG THE PD. AS
IT TRACKS NE...IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND WKN SLGTLY. UPR LVL WNDS
BECOME PARALLEL WITH A 50 TO 60 KT H85 JET...AND A 60 TO 90 KT H5
JET ACRS THE LWR MS VLY INTO THE DELMARVA RGN. 

ISOLD/WIDELY SCT SVR TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONT/DVLP ACRS A LARGE
PART OF THE ERN U.S. DURG THE PD. GIVEN THE FCST STRENGTH AND
ORIENTATION OF THE WND FIELDS ACRS THE MDT RISK AREA... EXPC TSTMS
TO SHOW BOW ECHO CHARACTERISTICS SUGG THE PRIMARY THREAT WL BE DMGG
WNDS. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO PSBL IN PARTS OF THE LWR MS VLY AND THE
MID ATLC RGN WHERE FCST CAPES ARE THE LARGEST.
 
..REHBEIN.. 05/18/95

...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

GEN TSTMS ARE EXPCD OVER A LARGE PTN OF THE ERN HALF OF THE
NATION...WITH TSTMS MOST NMRS ALG AND SOUTH OF A SFC FNT WHICH
IS FCST BY 00Z TO CURVE THRU THE MID ATLC CST RGN...LWR OH VLY
AND THE LWR MS VLY.  ISOLD AFTN AND EVE TSTMS ARE EXPCD OVR
THE FL PENN...AND SCT TSTMS ARE EXPCD TO ACRS MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE SERN U.S. DURG SECOND HALF OF THE PD.  

IN THE WRN U.S...ISOLD AFTN AND EVE TSTMS ARE PSBL ALG AND AHD
OF A SFC CDFNT FCST TO CROSS THE NWRN U.S...AND FROM THE SIERNEV
TO THE ROCKIES.  
 
..CROWTHER.. 05/18/95