stormsignals_vol40

STORM SIGNALS
Spring 1996, Vol. 40

CONTENTS

• Special Service Award
• The Spring Storm Season
• NWS Houston/Galveston Marine Program
• Galveston Town Meeting/Hurricane Hunter Plane
• 1996 Hurricane Workshop
• 1995 Hurricane Season and Upcoming Season
• SE TX Weather Retrospective
• The Co-Op Corner
• Storm Data: November 1995 - January 1996
• Dr Gray's Predictions/Hurricane Names

We are pleased to report that Mr. Robert White, KF5ZL, and Ed Sauer, K5YYD, have recently been awarded NWS Special Service Awards for support of the NWS severe weather program.

A successful warning program involves the work of many individuals both from the Weather Service and from the communities we serve. The program is periodically reviewed and when warranted, recognition of exemplary service is done through an awards process. The Special Service Award is the highest recognition given for citizen service to the NWS by our Regional Office in Fort Worth.

Bob White has been recognized for his dedicated efforts to assist the NWS in developing and maintaining a viable Storm Spotter Network, not only for the City of Houston, where he works in the Office of Emergency Management, but across the counties for which the Houston/Galveston NWS office is responsible. He established procedures for using the Houston RACES repeater for spotter coordination that allows radio coverage to over half our area of responsibility, impacting 90% of the population. This service has already resulted in key information getting to the NWS during tornado and flood events. Bob has usually manned the station from his office or at home during periods of active severe weather. He has also attended the majority of our spotter training sessions to help set up coordination links and explain his office's role in the warning program.

Ed Sauer has been recognized for his dedicated efforts in establishing Amateur Radio liaison to the NWS office in League City. Beginning in January 1992, efforts were undertaken to develop a coordinated spotter system for Southeast Texas. A vital link in this system was establishment of communication capabilities at the NWS office. Ed voluntarily jumped in and assisted in setting up a radio station and establishing operating procedures for liaison in the operations area. For the better part of three years, Ed was our "extra set of ears" during severe weather and flood threats. His expert handling of sometimes hectic flow of information both to our office and out to the nets greatly assisted forecasters in providing timely warnings and forecasts. This past year, Ed helped establish a pool of HAM operators to ensure coverage any time of day at the NWS office.

A heartfelt congratulations and thank you from the Houston/Galveston Weather Service staff to Bob and Ed!

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Staff at the Houston/Galveston Weather Service Office

Often in Southeast Texas, the most active season for severe weather is the collection of spring months of March, April, and May. With warm, moist air returning from the Gulf of Mexico and active frontal systems from the north and west, the Upper Texas Coast and Southeast Texas often experience numerous showers and thunderstorms.

There are mainly two big weather phenomena during the spring, thunderstorms and tornadoes. Tornadoes are associated with thunderstorms, but not every thunderstorm is capable of producing a tornado. However, thunderstorms can still produce significant damage without the presence of tornadoes. By definition, a thunderstorm produces lightning. Lightning is the number two weather related killer in the United States. The number one killer is flash floods which are also associated with thunderstorms. Despite the popularity, or notoriety, of a hurricane or tornado, the two main weather related killers can occur on a frequent basis. There are ways to help reduce the chances of suffering injury or damage during thunderstorms.

The best defense against spring thunderstorms is preparation. Try to keep updated to forecasts that might suggest severe weather. There are several signs that suggest a thunderstorm is approaching. Thunder is often the best warning signal. Temperature changes and breezy winds also offer a clue to approaching weather. If you can hear thunder or feel cool breezes, you are close enough to the thunderstorm to be affected. If at all possible, take shelter in a sturdy building away from windows. Use phones only in case of an emergency. If a shelter is not available, find a hardtop automobile and keep the windows up. A common myth about automobiles is that the rubber tires insulate the car. This is false as lightning can still strike the vehicle. But the vehicle will provide significantly more protection than the open ground. Stay away from towers, hills, and tall trees, as objects protruding into the air are the ones most likely to be struck. The only time to move to higher ground is if flood waters have been seen or reported in your area. If at the lake or on the coast, get off and away from water. If caught in the open ground, find a low spot in the terrain away from trees and fences. Squat low to the ground and lean on the balls of your feet. As lightning strikes the ground, it often spreads in several directions and can strike any object in the vicinity. By eliminating the area of ground that you are in contact with, you minimize your chance of being struck.

Tornadoes offer different problems, but many safety rules from thunderstorms apply. The best defense is again preparation. Practice tornado drills so that all members of the family or employees of business know the appropriate locations of tornado shelters. Don't panic. Move to an interior room away from windows. If at all possible cover yourself with blankets, pillows, or other soft objects. If driving, find a suitable low spot on the ground as quick as possible and abandon your vehicle. Do not try to outrun a tornado. If you reside in a mobile home, leave and find appropriate shelter as mobile homes offer little, if any, protection from tornadoes.

If at all possible, stay informed by listening to advisories from commercial radio and television or to the National Weather Service Weather Radio. With proper information and preparation, you can reduce the damage of severe thunderstorms to you, your family, and your property.

By following these basic rules, one can minimize the risk, and thus the damage posed by the variety of spring severe weather over Southeast Texas.

DEFINITIONS:

• Tornado Watch - Conditions are favorable for the development of tornadoes (tornadoes are possible in the area).
• Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Conditions are favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms (severe thunderstorms are possible in the area).
• Tornado Warning - Tornadoes are imminent or are occurring in the area.
• Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Severe thunderstorms are imminent or are occurring in the area.

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There are more than one hundred thousand registered boats in Southeast Texas! This staggering fact puts the marine program in its proper perspective.

Basically, the goal of the program is to improve marine weather products utilizing available resources including doppler weather radar, high resolution satellite images, buoy/C-MAN data, synoptic/meso-scale analyses, and "sea truth" reports from marine weather spotters. Studies of significant local marine weather events by our forecasters will bolster this goal.

Compared to the relatively dense network of weather observation stations on land areas, weather data in the marine environment is quite sparse. The need for "sea truth" data is obviously critical, especially during inclement weather.

The concept of establishing a Marine Weather Spotter Network was proposed by the Marine Advisory Committee (MAC) about 1 years ago. Since then, various members of the marine community have been actively involved. Participants in the spotter network include the following - Houston/Galveston U.S. Coast Guard Vessel Traffic Service (VTS), U.S. Coast Guard Communications Group Galveston, U.S. Coast Guard Auxiliaries in Clear Lake and Palacios, Offshore Marine Services (OMS) lightering ships, recreational boaters, towboat operators, and several manned oil platforms.

On numerous occasions, especially during periods of inclement marine weather (e.g. passing squall line), "sea truth" reports from spotters have tremendously helped our forecasters assess the marine situation.

The MAC has provided the weather office in Houston useful guidance in how to meet the needs of local mariners. In response, the "Near Shore Forecast" product was implemented last fall. This product encompasses the upper Texas coastal waters within five nautical miles from the coast and includes Galveston and Matagorda Bays.

Last year, the Marine Advisory Committee decided that using nautical mile as a critical value for the issuance of dense fog advisories in the marine area would be very helpful especially in the Houston/Galveston ship channel where the traffic can be quite heavy. This criteria has since been adopted.

Another aspect of our marine program is the familiarization of our forecasters with the environment they are forecasting and warning for. The U.S. Coast Guard Base in Galveston has provided our staff that service by letting them ride on boats that patrol near shore waters.

For active mariners who are interested in becoming a marine weather spotter, please contact Robert Van Hoven at the Houston/Galveston Weather Service Office.

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The NOAA Hurricane Research Aircraft ( P-3) will be on display and available for tours on May 7, 1996 at Galveston Scholes Field. In addition to the plane other Emergency Management Tools will be on display along with booths set up by the Red Cross...Houston/Galveston National Weather Service...Federal Emergency Management Association (FEMA) and the Galveston Historical Society. Schools in and around the Galveston Bay area are encouraged to take a field trip and visit the P-3 Aircraft. It will be a great opportunity to learn about research being done on hurricanes and what communities are doing to prepare for such a disaster.

At 7:00 PM at the Moody Center in Galveston, experts from the Hurricane Center will be on hand, along with local Emergency Management Officials, to talk about forecasting hurricanes and preparing for that day when a hurricane revisits the Upper Texas Coast. It is all free and open to everyone that has a need or desire to understand more about the hurricane threat we face along the Upper Texas Gulf Coast.

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Dr. Robert Burpee, Director of the National Hurricane Center, will be here to talk about the art of forecasting hurricanes. He will share with us some of the successes and failures during the 1995 Hurricane Season, the second most active Hurricane Season on record. In addition, Lt. Col. Gale Carter , Chief Meteorologist from the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, will explain the role of the Hurricane Reconnaissance plane in Hurricane Forecasting. Bill Read, Meteorologist In Charge Houston/Galveston Weather Office, will tell what it would been like if Hurricane Opal had come to the upper Texas Coast. We will also have an Emergency Manager from the state of Florida to explain how they used these forecasts in carrying out their emergency operation plans during 1995. It should prove to be a very informative workshop that you should plan not to miss. It is free and no prior registration is required. Several vendors will also be on hand to demonstrate their services along with several Emergency Management Agencies handing out preparedness materials. This years workshop is being sponsored for the third year in a row by East Harris County Manufacturers Association (EHCMA) along with the City of Pasadena.

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The 1996 hurricane season for the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico will begin on June 1. After a very active 1995 season (the second most active year in total number of storms on record), Southeast Texans must be prepared for the possibility of a storm or hurricane affecting our area. The last major hurricane to strike the Upper Texas Coast was Alicia in 1983. We have now gone 12 straight seasons without a major hurricane strike.

Many of the 1995 hurricanes caused extensive damage and led to numerous fatalities. Some highlights include the following:

• Hurricane Allison - $800,000 damage in the Florida panhandle.
• Hurricane Erin - $700,000 damage and 11 deaths in Florida.
• Hurricane Felix - Heavy mid-Atlantic beach erosion; nine deaths attributed to savage riptides.
• Hurricane Iris - Five deaths on Eastern Caribbean Islands.
• Hurricane Luis - $2.5 billion damage in the Eastern Caribbean, and one death in Newfoundland.
• Hurricane Marilyn - $1.5 billion damage and eight deaths once again in the Eastern Caribbean.
• Hurricane Opal - $3 billion damage and 59 deaths in Guatemala, Mexico, and the U.S.
• Hurricane Roxanne - Undetermined damage and 14 deaths in Mexico.

Dr. William M. Gray and colleagues from Colorado State University have attempted to predict how active the upcoming hurricane season will be. Their prediction for the 1996 hurricane season, which was issued on December 1, 1995, calls for a slightly below average year. Their prediction is based on a combination of a number of global atmospheric and ocean measurements, including Eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures, West African rainfall, and upper level winds.

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The year 1995 was not unlike any other year across Southeast Texas. It began just like 1994 ended with above normal temperatures and wetter than normal. In the City of Houston, the mean temperature for the year was 70.4, or 2.5 above the normal of 67.9. The average daily high temperature of 79.6 was 1.0 above normal, while the average low temperature of 60.0 was 2.7 above the mean for the year. All in all, a very warm departure from the normals. Of note was the fact that December was the 25th consecutive month of above normal readings. The high temperature for the year was 103 in July, and the lowest temperature was 27 in December. The mercury hit the century mark on nine occasions and freezing also on nine occasions. Temperatures exceeded 90 on 112 occasions, well above the average of 96. Precipitation for the year amounted to 44.63 inches, or 1.44" short of the yearly normal of 46.07". In comparison 1995 was still 1.48" more than the total rainfall of 43.15" in 1994. Data for the city of Houston is compiled from weather observations taken at Intercontinental Airport.

Although normals are not available for Southeast Texas Cooperative Stations at this time, we have compiled a few highlights for the area as well. The award for temperature extremes in 1995 goes to Mr. Erwin Knippel in Columbus. The Columbus station recorded both the extreme high and low for 1995. The high temperature was 106 and the low temperature 20. In addition, Columbus also recorded 41 days of 100 or higher of which 27 days were consecutive in August and September, also the most in the area.

Several other stations had temperatures of 105, namely Brenham, Groveton, and Madisonville. Seven stations did not reach the century mark, and its not surprising those were along the immediate coast with two exceptions, Cleveland and Coldspring. All of our stations reporting temperature received a freeze with Matagorda, El Campo, and Freeport experiencing one each. On the other end of the spectrum, the most days with freezing temperatures was a tossup with Corrigan's 38 days, and Livingston's 35 days. Both sites are in Polk County. The Lake Somerville site reported the most consecutive freeze days with nine.

The average rainfall over Southeast Texas ranged from 35" to 70". By far the wettest areas of 1995 were from East through Southwest of Houston. The most rainfall appears to have fallen between the cities of Liberty, Winnie, and Anahuac with 70"+. A good part of this total fell in association with Tropical Storm Dean in July. Another area of 60"+ rainfall totals occurred from West Columbia northeastward across Angleton, Alvin, to Dickinson and Clear Lake. This was mainly associated with three(3) heavy rainfall events. The City of Liberty recorded the most rainfall in 1995 with 67.76", followed closely by Angleton with 66.85", Anahuac with 65.44", Coldspring with 62.91", 62.14" at West Columbia, and finally Cleveland with 60.68". The least amount of rain for the year was 35.45" at Sealy, followed closely by Caldwell with 35.98" and Lake Somerville with 36.26". Also of note was the City of Galveston where the rainfall total of 56.05" exceeded the yearly normal by some 10.00". This may also have been true for the majority of the coastal tier of counties. The greatest monthly rainfall total occurred at Angleton with 14.36" although more may have fallen in association with Tropical Storm Dean between Anahuac, Liberty and Winnie.

We here at the Houston/Galveston National Weather Service Office wish to thank all of our Cooperative Observers and Contract Observers for the many hours spent taking these weather observations and preparing the necessary forms enabling us to edit the data provided and prepare these types of articles.

The chart above represents the rainfall distribution across Southeast Texas in 1995. The Rainfall Isopleths are in 5 inch increments. Actual rainfall totals for most of the Cooperative Stations are plotted on the chart.

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When the Weather Service wanted us involved in taking care of the COOP Observer Program at the local level, I felt it would be nice to see where the rain was falling and meet the observers helping us. I've been involved with the COOP program for a year and a half now. Jim Maxwell and I have had the pleasure of visiting with all of you. We have met a great bunch of people and I can honestly tell you this program has been everything we had hoped it would be and a lot more. THANKS!

Before getting involved, I used your data locally and passed it to the River Forecast Office without much thought of it's importance. It may interest you to know the data you send is fed into computers at the River Forecast Center. This helps evaluate soil moisture across the area and provide river stage forecasts every day. Locally, it is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the Doppler Radar and evaluate the probability of flash flooding. The information is also used by farmers making decisions on what and when to plant, to obtain crop insurance payment, and by local contractors to verify they are meeting their obligations. In the long term it will be used by Meteorologists, Climatologists, and University Students writing papers and doing studies trying to understand our environment.

We have had a few stations this year that had missing data due to illness or long trips and this unfortunately left gaps in the records, so the precipitation for that month or year cannot be calculated. If you get sick or go on a long trip and don't have a friend or neighbor to fill in, please call us or have someone contact us as soon as possible. We hope to work with County Emergency Managers to quickly find someone who could temporarily collect data that is representative of the area. This year, one of our goals is to try to prevent these data gaps. It would also be helpful if each of you would put zeros in the rainfall column on the days you have no rain. Blank spaces could mean you weren't able to read your rain gauge, zeroes tell us that you had no rainfall.

Sadly over the past year we lost a few good observers because they moved or felt it time to retire, but we gained new ones. However, in December Mrs. Jetta Kroll of Richards passed away. She was a dedicated person not only as a weather observer but an involved citizen. She will be deeply missed by us and her community.

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With the exception of a couple of days in mid-December, late fall/early winter was fairly quiet in the severe weather department. One major item of interest occurred December 17 and 18.

A slow moving/stationary front draped across central and southeast Texas produced an environment conductive for a heavy rain event. Our office issued 44 Flash Flood Warnings in the two day period alone, or about 41% of the total Flash Flood warnings issued for the year of 1995. Many counties across the region reported widespread street flooding and creeks out of their banks. An estimated $288 million in damages was done to homes, businesses and cars as a result of the flooding.

Heavy rain was not the only problem December 17 and 18. Severe thunderstorms producing strong gusty winds and hail also were reported with the event. Eagle Lake and Columbus, both in Colorado County, had hail the size of golfballs! Numerous tornadoes were also produced by the storms. Downtown Livingston, in Polk County, was hit by a tornado. Numerous trees were blown down, cars damaged, and roofs were torn off buildings. In Matagorda County, tornadoes were reported in Collegeport, Blessing, and Markham. The town of Markham had substantial damage: five to seven houses had major roof damage, one trailer was completely destroyed, and numerous trees were blown down. The community just south of the National Weather Service office was even struck by a small tornado! Total damage as a result of the twisters is estimated at $3.87 million.

Preliminary numbers suggest that close to 90% of severe weather events that were reported in 1995 by the public and law enforcement had been warned prior to occurrence. We appreciate everyone who assisted us by reporting severe weather events! If you happen to observe hail the size if dimes or larger, tornadoes, or wind speed suspected of being greater than 58 mph, please report them to your local sheriff's department. You can also report them to the National Weather Service, Monday through Friday from 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., by calling 281.337.5074.

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The following table is Gray's 1996 season predictions.

The two additional tables show Gray's 1995 and 1994 hurricane season predictions along with the actual totals for those seasons:

1996 Hurricane Season Predictions 		    	    Climatology
 
Named Storms	-	8					9.3 
 
Hurricanes	-	5					5.7 
 
Intense Hurricanes-	2					2.1 
 

1995 Hurricane Season	     Actual            Gray's Prediction (11/94)
 
Named Storms	-		19			12 
 
Hurricanes	-		11			8 
 
Intense Hurricanes-		5			3 
 

1994 Hurricane Season        Actual            Gray's Prediction (11/93)
 
Named Storms	-		7			10 
 
Hurricanes	-		3			6 
 
Intense Hurricanes -		0			2 

Your National Weather Service Office strongly urges you to always be prepared for the possibility of a tropical storm or hurricane striking Southeast Texas.

1996 HURRICANE SEASON NAMES

 
Arthur		Edouard		Isidore		Marco		Rene 
 
Bertha		Fran		Josephine	Nana		Sally 
 
Cesar		Gustav		Kyle		Omar	        Teddy 

Dolly		Hortense	Lili		Paloma		Vicky 
 
     							        Wilfred 

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