Friday, February 5th

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

326 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021

 

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

 

…An upper level trough will be moving into Southern California on

Wednesday, but how strong and how quickly it moves west will

determine how the end of the long term period pans out. The GFS is

the weakest and quickest solution bringing the trough across Texas

late Thursday into Friday increasing PoPs Thursday afternoon into

Thursday night, but then drying out through the weekend. The EC has

had the upper level trough stronger, becoming a closed low over the

Baja Peninsula by Thursday evening. This solution brings

precipitation beginning Thursday, but continues it into the weekend

as the stalled boundary stays parked near the area. The Canadian is

a bit in the middle of the road between the GFS and EC, with a

stronger trough moving across Texas on Friday. The real forecast

challenge Thursday night will be how cold it gets. Temperatures will

be flirting with near freezing across the northern tier of counties

bringing the potential for a wintry mixture to those areas. There

are still a lot of uncertainties in this forecast, so temperatures

may trend warmer or cooler through the next few days.

 

Fowler

 

Saturday, February 6

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

414 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021

 

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Saturday Night]...

 

Partly to occasionally mostly cloudy skies can be expected Sunday

night through Monday night as high pressure moves off to the

east. With this onshore flow, look for warmer temperatures to come

back to the area with inland highs back into the 70s on Monday.

The next cold front will slowly sag into the area on Tuesday and

will bring some cooler temperatures back to the region. This front

should linger somewhere near/along the coast until a stronger

front moves through on Thursday. With these fronts in the area and

mid/upper level disturbances moving across the area, expect

periods of rain in the Wednesday through Thursday night time

period. At this time, it looks like the coldest temperatures will

hold off until Thursday night as the area begins to dry out. Some

models/soundings indicate some support for possible frozen

precipitation for parts of the area on Thursday night before the

drying occurs, and we'll continue to watch how the models handle

this over the next several days. Stay tuned. We are currently

carrying a dry forecast Friday night through Saturday with lows in

the 20s/30s and highs in the 40s.

 

42

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

356 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021

 

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

 

We'll be starting the work week on a warm note...with things likely

ending very much colder by the end of the week (as indicated by the

previous forecast for the most part). High pressure well off to the

E/NE will allow for a persistent onshore flow across SE TX Mon/Tues

as low-level moisture levels slowly increase. A nearly zonal flow at

the upper levels are hinting that the cold front (originally slated

for Tues) could have some trouble making it that far south into our

CWA. As a result, will trend high temperatures Mon/Tues warmer with

lower/mid 70s for most inland areas...upper 60s at the coast.

 

Rain chances are still set to return Weds as disturbances embedded

in the W/SW flow aloft begin moving across the state. This activity

could be enhanced by the lingering cold front, but at this time it

is hard to pinpoint where exactly. But going by these latest runs,

POPs may be best on Wed over our northern counties. These elevated

rain chances are expected to linger through Thurs with the passage

of the second stronger cold front. Have leaned more toward the GFS

and Canadian solutions with this part of the forecast as they have

been verifying a bit better of late. As such, we could be in store

for a couple nights of freezing to below freezing temperatures for

overnight lows for much of SE TX from Thur night into the weekend.

High temperatures for this period could range from the 40s and 50s

if these models do verify.  41

 

Sunday, February 7

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

357 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2021

 

.LONG TERM [Monday Night through Sunday]...

 

Temperatures will be on the mild to warm side for a large part of

the area until the arrival and passage of the next cold front

late Wednesday night or Thursday. Highs in the 60s/70s on Tuesday

and Wednesday will cool down behind the front with 50/60s on

Thursday and 40s/50s Friday through Sunday in response to strong

high pressure slowly building into the area from the northwest and

north. There are still some differences in the models (frontal

location/ timing and how cold the airmass gets as the high builds

in) that will have to be closely monitored over the next several

days and could bring some changes to the forecast (including the

possibility of colder temperatures). At this time, the coldest

nights look to be setting up for Friday night and Saturday night

with lows in the 20s/30s.

 

As for rain, will be keeping the forecast dry until Wednesday

when enough moisture and lift return to the area and begin to

interact with disturbances moving across the state. Rain chances

look to remain in the forecast (highest generally to the north of

I-10 and to the east of I-45) until Thursday afternoon and evening

when the front moves on through and dries the area out. At this

time, the coldest air does not arrive until all the rain has moved

out of the area.

 

42

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

334 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2021

 

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]...

 

A persistent onshore flow Tue and Weds will be keeping temperatures

on the mild/warm side for a much of SE TX. While the zonal pattern

aloft will be helping to keep the cold front just north of the CWA

on Tue, there are some hints that the passage of a few upper level

disturbances (via the southern stream jet) could nudge this bound-

ary a bit into our northern zones very briefly late Tues afternoon.

But that being said, will err on the side of warm and keep daytime

highs mostly in the 70s for inland locations both Tue/Weds at this

time. Lows are expected to range from the 50s inland to near 60 at

the immediate coast.

 

Rain chances will also begin increasing Weds given this heating as

well PWs climbing to 1.3-1.4" and progs of a decent low-level jet.

These elevated POPs are expected to continue into Weds night/Thurs

with the arrival/passage of the cold front across SE TX. Even with

global models remaining sharply divided with regard to how cold we

will get, FROPA timing is trending a little better. That is, we'll

be looking for the wind shift to reach the coast Thur afternoon or

evening per these latest runs. Did include the mention of isolated

thunder in the grids for this time period given the progged sound-

ings of some decent CAPE. As the very cold air mass moves into the

region behind this front, a much colder forecast is on tap through

the rest of the week. Daytime highs Fri/Sat could struggle to make

it into the mid/upper 50s (..and possibly into Sun). We could also

see our coldest temperatures of the season for both Fri and/or Sat

nights. Currently going with overnight low temperatures in the mid

to upper 20s over the northern third of our CWA...at/around freez-

ing for central locations...upper 30s for the coastal counties for

this time period.  41

 

Monday, February 8
 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

416 AM CST Mon Feb 8 2021

 

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night through Monday]...

 

A persistent onshore flow on Tuesday and Wednesday will help to

keep temperatures on the warm side for much of Southeast Texas. It

still appears possible that a cold front that is expected to

remain just to the north of our area could be nudged just a little

southward on Tuesday or Tuesday night resulting in a slight

cooldown behind the boundary for locations way up north. In

general, expect much of the inland areas to see highs in the 70s

for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Some fog (mainly in the late night

through early morning hours) could develop, especially in/around

the Galveston Bay area and near the beaches. Rain chances return

to the forecast Wednesday afternoon and persist until the next

cold front moves through the area on Thursday.

 

Hope you enjoyed the warmer early February temperatures because

everything changes with the passage of Thursday's front as a

colder airmass filters into the area. Locations up north should

cool down Wednesday night, and the rest of the area will see

falling temperatures during the day on Thursday after the boundary

moves on through. Rains chances will decrease and eventually come

to an end from west to east starting late Thursday afternoon or

early Thursday evening and continuing through Thursday night. Low

temperatures Friday morning are expected to range from the mid to

upper 30s inland to the mid to upper 40s at the coast. Strong high

pressure at the surface will begin building into the area from

the north, and cold air advection is anticipated to help to keep

high temperatures in the 40s/50s on Friday. Lows in the 30s/40s

and highs in the 40s/50s look to persist throughout the weekend

and on into the start of next week as the area remains under the

influence of the surface high. In addition to the colder

temperatures, shortwaves moving across the area will have the

potential to bring us periods of rain. We will continue to monitor the

end of the week and over the weekend temperature forecast for the

possibility of colder readings and some frozen precipitation. 42

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

350 PM CST Mon Feb 8 2021

 

.LONG TERM [Wednesday through Monday]...

 

Rain chances will be increasing on Weds...with the best POPs across

our N/NE CWA. The combination of a stalled cold front (likely close

to our northern borders) and a developing low/mid level jet as well

abundant daytime heating/low-level moisture (PWs from 1.2" to 1.4")

should support the development of scattered showers/isolated thund-

erstorms by Weds afternoon. As all/most of these features remain in

place, elevated POPs will likely persist into Weds night and Thurs.

However, the main WX story for Thurs will be the arrival/passage of

the strong cold front and the cold arctic air mass filtering down in

to the region in its wake. Did keep the mention of isolated TSRA in

for FROPA with most of this activity likely elevated. Rains will be

ending with the front from west to east by late Thurs afternoon/eve

and continuing through Thurs night.

 

As it has been hinted at previously, the main forecast issues going

forward will be related to the very cold air mass that's progged to

settle over the region by the end of the week and into the weekend.

Low temperatures Fri morning should range from the mid to upper 30s

inland to the mid to upper 40s along the coast. Strong surface high

pressure building into the state from the north and persistent cold

air advection will help to keep high temperatures in the 40s/50s on

Fri. Temperatures could fall even lower for Sat/Sun by another 5 to

10 degrees for both highs and lows. As such, we could be looking at

a few nights of prolonged freezing or below freezing temperatures.

In addition to these colder temperatures, shortwaves moving across

the area from the SW will have the potential produce some low POPs

Sat/Sun/Mon. And yes, while there are hints that we could see some

frozen/wintry precipitation (per GFS extended runs), confidence not

high enough to include its mention in the grids at this time. 41

 

Tuesday, February 9

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

429 AM CST Tue Feb 9 2021

 

.LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday Night]...

 

The main concern in the extended is the potential for well below

normal temperatures late this week into next week.

 

Showers and a few thunderstorms will be ongoing on Thursday as a

mid- upper level trough deepens over western TX and a cold front

slowly moves through during the morning hours. While colder air

begins to filter in by late Wed night, warm air aloft (roughly at

850 mb) should aid to keep rain chances through Thursday night. In

fact, by late morning and afternoon the frontal band becomes more

organized with elevated instability and decent mid-level

frontogenesis persisting along the front. This should aid in

enhancing rainfall rates; therefore, have PoPs likely through at

least, late Thursday night. Rainfall totals are still uncertain,

but 1-1.5 inch amounts cannot be ruled out.

 

After this front...the fun part begins. The first piece of Arctic

airmass breaks off and settles across the Plains in the wake of

the front. This dry and cold airmass will take highs back down

into the upper 40s to upper 50s by Friday. Even more chilly or

frigid conditions filter in as the main 1044 mb Arctic high over

the Canadian Plains shifts east-southeast across the High Plains.

Our confidence is moderate to high that cold conditions will

arrive to southeast TX; however, there is still uncertainty on the

amount of cold air filtering in. We are still seeing quite a

spread between models with GFS being one of the coldest solutions.

Latest NBM guidance also suggest a very cold weekend with MaxT in

the 30s to low 40s Sunday and from the upper 20 to mid 30s

Monday. Given that, have leaned towards the colder solutions for

temperatures Saturday into Monday and went fairly close to the

25th percentile of climatology. As for now, get ready for a cold

weekend for southeast Texas standards. How cold will it get?

That's the main question, but even if warmer solutions verify it

could still be cold enough at most locations. The main takeaway is

to keep up with the latest forecasts and be prepared to take

action to protect people, vegetation and property (pipes). On the

other hand, confidence on breezy conditions is also increasing

Friday into the weekend, which will help to keep wind chill values

even colder.

 

Precipitation-wise, a few shortwaves embedded in the

southwesterly flow aloft will move through the region Saturday and

Sunday, therefore, hinting at some precipitation chances. Better

chances look to arrive towards the end of the period as a coastal

low develops and lifts northward into the region Monday into

Tuesday. There could be some light mixed precipitation over parts

of the forecast area with mainly snow-rain mix to our north.

Confidence is very low on this right now as there are a lot of

details to still be worked out. Overall, keep in mind that we are

still 4 to 7 days out so this forecast will change during the week.

05

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

339 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021

 

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

 

Fairly high rain chances will be ongoing across SE TX on Thurs with

the passage of the strong cold front. The bulk of the precipitation

should be showers, but still cannot rule out isolated thunderstorms

given the modest lapse rates/weak instability. All this activity is

expected to move off the coast with the front by early Fri morning.

Rainfall totals should average from 1/2 to 1 inch over the CWA with

isolated higher amounts from 1 to 1.5 inches possible.

 

Otherwise, the main forecast issue with this portion of the forecast

looks to be the potential for some very cold/well below normal temp-

eratures for an extended period (Thurs night through Mon night), and

perhaps a slight chance of precipitation during the same time frame.

 

Progs of a series of strong surface highs moving down from the High

Plains (1041mb to 1047mb) into the Central Plains from Thurs on in-

to the weekend  will help maintain a strong/persistent CAA into the

state. Will continue to lean on the side of the colder GFS/Canadian

solutions for our temperatures. This pattern could produce extended

periods of freezing/below freezing temperatures this weekend...with

possibly a Freeze Warning for our coastal counties. Slightly better

consensus/slowly increasing confidence with the likelihood of colder

weather does make this a very good time to remind everyone to check

their cold weather preparations (both inside and outside) for this

potentially prolonged cold snap.

 

As for the chances of precipitation...models are continuing to show

a series of embedded shortwaves moving across the area through this

weekend. As it usually is with the SW flow aloft, the timing of said

shortwaves is expected to be an issue. Given the very cold air mass

in place over SE TX...there could be some light mixed precipitation

(rain-snow/sleet mix) over the CWA at times during this time frame.

As all of this is still a ways away, confidence remains very low for

this even verifying at this time. 41

 

Wednesday, February 10

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

437 AM CST Wed Feb 10 2021

 

.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

 

At 4am, a shallow cold front was situated from roughly Edna-Wharton-

Houston-Cleveland. It should remain in that general vicinity for

most of the day. Some guidance drifts it north a touch, others

(primarily the hires guidance that was heavily weighted) sags it a

bit further south. South of the boundary, dense sea fog has rolled

back in. Visibilities will again improve inland during the mid-late

morning hours, but not so much along the beaches and offshore.

 

Moist southerly flow just above the sfc will be transporting an axis

of higher PW's into the region. Expect some sct pockets of -ra to

begin developing this morning near the boundary...eventually

increasing in coverage and becoming more showery further to the

north during the day. Can't completely rule out an iso tstm, but

it'll be the exception rather than the rule.

 

Somewhat of a break in precip is anticipated for most areas late in

the day, but anticipate some additional sct development across the

area later this evening...mainly near and just to the north of the

frontal boundary as it begins a southward push toward and off the

coast.

 

Heading into to Thurs, western trof will be making ewd progress

closer to the area. We should still have some respectable PW's in

the 1.2-1.5" range in place the region. Increasing large scale lift

(and a series of impulses embedded in the swly flow aloft and

favorable jet position) should allow precip to increase in areal

coverage thru the day Thurs and Thurs night. May see some elevated

tstms mixed in...and also some periods of training moderate rains at

times Thurs night. In general, 0.75-1.75" of rain can be expected in

the Thur-Thurs night time period. Grounds should be able to handle

this without much of an issue considering it'll be spread out over a

fairly long duration, but always need to keep an eye on the rain

rates for any very localized issues that may crop up in association

with any training.  47

 

.LONG TERM [Friday through Tuesday Night]...

 

Cold to frigid conditions along with a chance for mixed

precipitation are the main story in the long term forecast.

 

Other than perhaps some lingering showers across our far

east/coastal zones Friday morning, the day should be relatively

dry. At the surface, CAA continues to filter in drier and colder

air, leading to daytime temperatures from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

This is 10 to 20 degrees below normal/average. Overnight lows will

range in the 30s and low 40s. By Saturday morning, the next

shortwave embedded within the southwesterly flow will allow for

increasing lifting and saturation along the BL, especially across

our western counties. Forcing, on the the hand, diminishes/weakens

as the shortwave moves east/southeast. Therefore, have only light

precipitation chances.

 

The scenario turns a bit more interesting as we head into Sunday

and early next week. The synoptic pattern aloft will be dominated

by a shortwave trough across central/southeast TX, a Canadian low

wobbling between the Great Lakes and the International Border,

and a low developing over the Pacific Northwest. The evolution of

this upper low is the one we should continue to monitor over the

coming days. This upper low will quickly progress across the

southern Rockies/central TX by Sunday, moving across the forecast

area on Monday. The environment will be favorable for widespread

precipitation as the region will be situated in a favorable

region of the upper level jet, with increasing PVA and decent

southerly LLJ. Will continue to monitor this system as models also

hint for some mid-level frontogenesis; however, the layer above

still remains more stable. With that being said, an unsettled

start to the week is likely. The main question will be p-types.

Latest guidance indicates that surface temperatures will likely

drop to near freezing across our northern/western counties,

bringing a wintry mix and/or freezing rain throughout the day.

Precipitation should quickly taper off by Monday night as a

strong surface high builds in. Well, to make matters worse, breezy

northwesterly winds will be possible, causing wind chill values in

the teens and 20s possible.

 

Speaking of cold....Significantly cold conditions are expected

this weekend into next week, with record breaking cold forecast.

The strong and amplified Arctic high will dive southward across

the Plains and into our region. While confidence is increasing,

there is still uncertainty on how cold southeast TX will get.

Continued with a cold forecast and went close to the mean and/or

coldest solutions from Day 4 - 7. Even chilly or frigid conditions

will be possible Monday night into Tuesday. Have leaned towards

raw deterministic and ConsALL for lows during this time-frame to

produce temperatures in the teens and 20s.

 

Key Messages:

 

1) Big changes on the way! A prolonged stretch of cold and winter

weather will be possible late this week into next week with

temperatures well below average for this time of year.

 

2) Precipitation chances increase late Sunday into early next

week with a potential for a wintry mix. Confidence is moderate in

terms of a wet/unsettled pattern during this period; however,

uncertainty arises on the type of precipitation.

 

3) A prolonged period of very cold conditions will be possible.

Be prepared to take action and protect people, plants, and

properties (pipes). We encourage you to monitor the forecast over

the next days for the latest information and/or possible

headlines.

 

05

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

418 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2021

 

.LONG TERM [Friday through Wednesday]...

 

Rain chances will be decreasing Fri morning through the afternoon

as the cold front pushes well into the Gulf. Strong high pressure

building down from the Plains will help to usher in a very arctic

air mass into the region at this time with frigid conditions exp-

ected to persist through the weekend and and at least through the

first half of next week. The other part of the story for the long

term portion of the forecast will be the increasing likelihood of

wintry precipitation mixed into all of this..lower chances on Sat

and perhaps higher chances Sun night/Mon.

 

Global models are continuing to trend cold for the weekend...then

even colder during the early part of next week as the strong/amp-

lified Arctic surface high is progged to track south in the Great

Plains. Did not go quite as low as some of the MOS has suggested,

but record lows will be entirely possible.

 

As for rain chances, models appear to be in decent agreement with

the timing/strength of these systems. The first shortwave appears

to move through SE TX on Sat, but with not so favorable low-level

moisture levels and upper support. Did include the mention of ice

pellets/sleet and freezing rain for mainly the far northern parts

of the FA for Sat morning/afternoon. Otherwise, will be expecting

isolated to scattered cold rains. However, things seem to be more

favorable for increased POPs for Sun night/Mon. The possible dev-

elopment of a coastal low and divergent jet structure aloft along

with the strong shortwave are all pointing to much better chances

for precipitation. The main question then becomes p-types. Latest

guidance indicates that surface temperatures will likely drop to/

near freezing across our northern/western CWA by midnight Sun, so

we'll be starting off with freezing rain/wintry mix overnight. As 

temperatures continue to fall early Mon, this could transition to

more of a snow/wintry mix through Mon morning. And so...the morn-

ing commute on Mon could be a very tricky one.

 

Looking even further ahead...guidance not really offering up much

by way of warming and/or drying. There are hints of another round

of rain/wintry mix for SE TX with the passage of yet another very

strong cold front and its associated shortwave. *whew* 41

 

Thursday, February 11

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

436 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

 

.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...

 

**If traveling across northern parts of the Brazos Valley today

 and tonight, be careful on bridges. There may be a few slick

 spots should temperatures fall another couple degrees today**

 

Enhanced lift in association of upper trof over northern Mexico,

upper disturbances in the swly flow aloft and a moist srly flow

over the cold airmass at the sfc will aid in increasing precip

development today and tonight. There's some instability aloft so

there will probably be some elevated tstms mixed in as well. Best

lift should be realized across the northern half of the CWA

between now and early evening closer the RRQ of upper jet and

convergent zone near H85. We will be closely monitoring temps in

the Brazos Valley today. Currently they're in the 33-36F range and

doubt they'll see much if any of a warm-up. Some guidance drops

the temps another few degrees. Should this occur, can't rule out

some patches of ice on elevated bridges and surfaces. Think best

chances of this occurring will be just n/nw of our CWA, but too

close for comfort. Depending on trends, the dayshift may need to

evaluate the need for a winter wx advisory. Precip should mostly

taper off there early in the evening as it heads toward the

US59/I-69 corridor and eastward into the overnight hours. Bulk of

precip should end slightly after midnight, though fcst soundings

remain saturated in the llvls so would anticipate some areas of

drizzle continuing into Fri morning. Again...will need to keep a

close eye on this across the Brazos Valley as readings remain near

the freezing mark.

 

Sct areas of -ra/dz will probably persist into Friday across

southern parts of the region closer to the coast with continued

isentropic lift. Otherwise, cloudy and continued cold heading into

the weekend and into next week when the fun really begins... 47

 

 

.LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday Night]...

 

The main focus in the long term continues to be a prolonged

period of well-below temperatures and multiple chances for mixed

precipitation.

 

The Arctic blast is on the way with the coldest readings expected

after Sunday. Latest forecast guidance keeps the strong surface

high building over west/central Canada through Saturday, shifting

southward into the Plains Sunday through much of next week.

Temperatures were adjusted a few degrees colder than NBM guidance

and went fairly close to the 10th-25th percentile through the

period.

 

There are multiple rounds of precipitation during the period. The

first mid-upper level wave arrives Saturday into early Sunday.

While dynamics largely remain west and north of the area in terms

of legitimate precipitation, the system will drive a decent PV

anomaly enough to produce precipitation. At the moment, thermal

profiles would support rain as the primary p-type. While

confidence is low, a brief window of patchy freezing drizzle will

be possible across our far northwestern counties early Saturday

morning and early Sunday.

 

Attention then turns to a more potent system tracking across the

Rockies from the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. Latest guidance

suggests a slightly weaker system compared to previous runs;

however, models are in good agreement on its phase/timing. In

fact, models are now bringing a more progressive low, bringing

precipitation as early as Sunday night, moving out of our region

by early Monday evening. There is still a lot of uncertainty with

this system, though this storm has the potential to bring an

assortment of hazards, including rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow

and wind. Given warm air aloft, a wintry mix looks possible,

mainly across our half southern counties (mainly south of I-10).

Timing will be very important! If precipitation moves quick enough

to make it across southern/coastal areas before temps cool

near/below freezing, then rain/freezing rain/sleet will be

favored. Will continue to monitor different factors such as wet

bulb temperatures, lifting aloft and timing of stronger CAA

filtering in behind the system. Strong lift could result in

stronger cooling and a more rapid changeover to snow. No matter

the type of precipitation, a hazardous morning commute looks

possible.

 

Beyond Monday...models show another system with a potential for

winter weather conditions on Wednesday, but there is too much

uncertainty this far out.

 

Key Messages:

 

1) An extended period of well-below normal temperatures is

expected this week into next week. Wind chill values may drop into

the teens and single digits at times.

 

2) Precipitation chances continue to increase now from Sunday

into early next week with a potential for a wintry mix. Confidence

remains low on the type of precipitation.

 

3) Stay weather aware and prepared. We encourage you to begin

preparing for these conditions including winterizing your homes.

Continue to monitor the forecast over the next days for the latest

information and/or possible headlines.

 

05

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

320 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

 

...MAJOR WINTER IMPACTS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS WEEK...

 

...Sunday night plan on staying where you are with travel being

impacted to severe impacted through Tuesday morning...

 

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Friday Afternoon]...

Winter weather advisory for the northwesternmost counties extended

until 10 pm.

 

Cold front has pushed out well south of the coastal waters and

winds have come up a few knots moreso with gusts - 15 to 20 mph

sustained with wind chills of 29 to 37 were commonplace at 2 pm.

 

Short wave moving through the Hill Country is producing more

widespread wintery precipitation over the Hill Country and the

eastern edge will impinge on SETX late this afternoon and tonight

as the s/w shifts eastward. More widespread liquid rainfall is

expected across SETX late this afternoon and tonight spreading

east then southeast tonight and tapering off from the northwest.

Areas across Madisonville to Caldwell will continue to have patchy

freezing light drizzle/freezing rain/sleet/rain into mid evening

before it tapers off. The advisory is set to expire at 10 pm but

temperatures at 10 pm may hold at 30-33 degrees there which would

indicate that any icy roads may not improve even though the

precipitation (and Advisory) have ended. Low temperatures

overnight will be a slow slide down to 30-37 north of I-10 and

38-42 south of I-10.

 

Friday morning the rain should be confined to mainly the 59

corridor southeastward with scattered/numerous showers and

isolated thunderstorms possible well offshore near the 850 front.

But inland in the afternoon it should be just chilly with some

patchy light rain in the upper 30s/lower 40s.

 

45

 

.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Thursday]...

 

*** OVERVIEW ***

 

    * Surge of Arctic air arrives on Saturday with temperatures

      approaching freezing across most of the area by Sunday night.

 

    * First of two disturbances arrives on Saturday, bringing mostly

      rain with higher chances of mixed precip north of I-10.

 

    * Second system arrives late Sunday into early Monday. With

      colder temperatures in place, widespread wintry precipitation could

      impact most of the area during this time.

 

    * Behind the second system, prolonged stretch of below freezing

      and potentially historically low temperatures will last well into

      next week. Another round of precipitation may arrive by mid-week.

 

A highly impactful and potentially historic period of prolonged cold

temperatures with multiple episodes of winter precipitation is

expected to impact SE Texas over the next week. With persistent deep

surface high pressure in place over the central CONUS, arctic air

will continue to push into the area as we head into the weekend. By

Saturday, high temperatures are unlikely to break out of the mid-40s

with lows approaching freezing north of the Houston metro. Our first

shot at winter precipitation will arrive on Saturday evening as an

upper shortwave trough pushes through the area. Precipitation type

will be highly dependent on the timing of this feature, though a

period of freezing drizzle/mixed-phase precipitation may occur north

of the Houston metro but elsewhere to the south model soundings

continue to favor a cold rain.

 

Our main area of focus continues to be the arrival of a second, more

amplified shortwave on late Sunday into early Monday. As this

feature pushes towards SE TX and develops a slight negative tilt,

GFS/EC solutions indicate the formation of an associated coastal low

over the western Gulf of Mexico. PWs will remain in the vicinity of

1-1.25 in as this feature continues to develop, and model soundings

remain well-saturated. With lows on Sunday evening expected to dip

into the 20s to low 30s across the overwhelming majority of the

area, an impactful winter precipitation event is anticipated. While

precipitation type will remain highly dependent on the timing of

this system's arrival and the exact vertical temperature profiles

present across the area (i.e. the presence and extent of an elevated

warm layer), we are becoming increasingly confident in a widespread

mixed-phase event beginning Sunday night and persisting into Monday.

Global deterministic solutions continue to indicate the possibility

of snow, sleet, and freezing rain impacting portions of the area

during this time. This will make for a particularly hazardous

commute on Monday, particularly for those who travel on elevated

roadways or bridges. Surface streets may become involved as well

given these persistent cold temperatures. Travelers are urged to

pay close attention to the latest forecast as this situation

develops. Over the next few days, timing, amounts, and types of

precipitation will become more refined as higher- resolution

guidance becomes evaluable.

 

Upon the exit of the second system and subsequent clearing, SE TX

looks to experience its coldest night in many years on Monday

evening. Low temperatures across the Brazos Valley and other

northern zones remain progged to drop into the single digits, while

the Houston metro is expected to reach the low to mid 10s. Along the

barrier islands and coast, temperatures will still remain well below

freezing. Daily records are likely in play for several days at each

of our climate sites. These conditions will be extremely hazardous

to the "4 Ps" - people, pets, plants, and pipes. Consider the

actions you will need to take to ensure the protection of each of

these things. Risk may be further compounded by the possibility of

power outages given the expected winter precipitation earlier in

the day and increased energy demand for the heating of buildings.

 

Freezing temperatures are expected to last well into the upcoming

week, with lows remaining in the 20s for at least parts of the area

through next Thursday. Another episode of winter precipitation is

possible on Wednesday/early Thursday as a third upper trough pushes

through the area, though the timing of this system and temperature

profile across the area remains highly uncertain across model

solutions.

 

Now is the perfect time to prepare for this period of hazardous

weather. Be sure to have multiple ways to receive weather

information and continue to monitor the forecast, particularly if

you must travel this weekend and early next week.

 

Cady

 

Friday, February 12

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

531 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

 

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Saturday]...

 

Currently, most showers remain offshore of our region with

overcast skies and low clouds expected to persist throughout

today. Hi-res models suggest the highest rain chances will remain

offshore and along the coast due to a lingering frontal boundary

with perhaps some isolated and sporadic showers inland. High temps

will be in the upper 30s for our northernmost counties and the

lower-to-mid 40s everywhere else. Overnight lows tonight will be

only a few degrees colder than today's high temps with our

northernmost counties reaching near freezing and everywhere else

reaching the upper 30s.

 

As rain chances begin to increase on Saturday due to an

approaching upper-level shortwave trough, high temperatures are

not expected to breach the mid-40s. Global models have been

predicting warmer temps at the surface than what is expected, plus

diabatic cooling from precip can also cool the lower levels.

Therefore, depending on the timing of this precip, cold rain is

expected for most of our region, but periods of freezing drizzle

and other mixed-phase precip north of the Houston-metro area

cannot be ruled out.

 

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Friday]...

 

*** OVERVIEW ***

 

* Bitterly cold air will be moving into the region into midweek as

  an Arctic airmass spills into the area. Prolonged periods of

  freezing temperatures are expected.

 

* 3 separate weather systems are forecast to move across the

  area...each bringing chances of some wintery precipitation to

  parts of the region.

 

* The combination of both the cold temperatures and winter

  precipitation have the potential to significantly impact life and

  property. Travel may be impacted by hazardous road conditions.

  Sporadic power outages will be a possibility should we have

  significant amounts of ice build up on powerlines and/or trees.

  Pipes (including sprinkler systems) will be subject to bursting if

  not adequately insulated, and hypothermia may be a possibility for

  those exposed and not dressed accordingly. Residents should use

  the next few days to prepare before the coldest air arrives.

  Remember the 4 P's: pipes, people, pets and plants. In addition,

  be aware of space heater dangers if not properly place/used.

 

The first of the 3 systems will be arriving early Saturday evening

and overnight. The trof seen on w/v imagery over cntl Ca will dip

into northern Mexico then across the area. Temperatures, generally

north of Highway 105 will be near or below freezing as this occurs

and some freezing rain and sleet can be expected. Though overall

precip amounts shouldn't be all that impressive from a numbers

standpoint, it only takes a small glaze on the roads to cause

issues. Current forecast frozen accumulations are currently slightly

below Winter Storm Warning criteria, but wouldn't be surprised if a

Winter Weather Advisory might be needed at some point in the area

described above.

 

The second system is still on target to move in from the w/nw in the

midnight-noon timeframe Monday. This system will bring more

significant widespread frozen precip accumulations...perhaps as far

south as the coast. All combinations of wx are expected...starting

out as a ran-freezing rain-sleet event transitioning to a sleet-snow

mix across some inland portions as it exits the area. Consensus is

building that it'll be a somewhat progressive system - but not a fan

of starting out with ice covered with sleet/snow on top. Suspect a

Winter Storm Watch will be needed at some point this weekend

followed by a Warning for most of the area...assuming no significant

forecast changes between now and then.

 

Extremely cold air will filter into the area behind it with temps

falling thru the day and night. Lows are forecast to dip into the

single digits across northern parts of the CWA, teens into the

northern coastal counties and 20-25 at the beaches. Monday night/Tue

morning should be the coldest of the week. That said, some locations

might not see readings above the freezing mark for long durations.

As a rough estimate: northern parts of the CWA Mon morning til maybe

Wed morning, I-10 corridor Monday morning til maybe late Tue

afternoon (and only briefly til they fall again overnight), and

the beaches Mon morning til late Tue morning.

 

The third system, sometime between late Tues night and Wed night

depending on your model of choice, looks like a more traditional

sleet-snow setup with a coastal low positioned closer to the coast,

upper trof approaching from the west and favorable thickness values

dipping into the region. Have the least fcst confidence in regards

to the timing/details with this system of the three considering it's

so far out and lacks model consistency.  47

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

352 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

 

...Major Winter Storm Arrives Late Sunday...

 

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday Afternoon]...

Tonight will be cold and cloudy with northerly winds 10 to 15 mph

and temperatures holding in the 30s inland and near 40 on the

coast. Some very light drizzle is possible this evening. A s/w

approaches from the southwest Saturday and rain chances increase

from the southwest to northeast throughout morning-afternoon

hours. Some of the far northwestern areas could see some patchy

light freezing drizzle toward sunrise into the afternoon.

Temperatures should reach the 32-34 degree range for a few hours

near College Station Saturday afternoon ending the freezing

drizzle threat.

45

 

&&

 

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Friday]...

 

*** OVERVIEW ***

 

* As frigid arctic air pushes into SE Texas, 3 storm systems

  are expected to bring periods of winter weather to the

  region over the next 5-7 days which will have the potential

  to pose a significant threat to life and property.

 

* The arrival of the first system will bring periods of sleet

  and freezing rain on Saturday night/early Sunday with the

  greatest impacts north of the I-10 corridor.

 

* A second, stronger disturbance combined with much below-

  freezing temperatures will bring sleet, snow, and freezing rain

  to all of SE Texas, causing significant disruptions to travel

  and potential power outages. Near record cold temperatures will

  develop as this system departs by Monday night.

 

* A third round of sleet and freezing rain is possible Wednesday

  into Thursday, though uncertainty surrounding this system

  remains higher.

 

We continue to expect a significant and potentially historic period

of prolonged subfreezing temperatures with several rounds of winter

precipitation to impact SE Texas over the next week. As a persistent

deep area of surface high pressure remains the dominant synoptic

feature over the central third of the CONUS, moderate to strong

northerlies will continue to enhance CAA, with temperatures

remaining on a downward trend over the next several days. By late

Saturday, most locations will be at or near freezing with the

northern third of the area likely to see the 20s.

 

The first of three upper shortwaves will traverse the area late

Saturday. Forecast soundings continue to be indicative of

sleet/freezing rain north of the Houston metro with a well-

saturated column and fairly deep elevated warm layer. Surface

/near-surface temps across and south of the metro area will be

less favorable for frozen precipitation, but travelers should

still remain highly vigilant of road conditions before heading

out. Behind the departure of this system, temperatures warm back

above freezing on Sunday afternoon but will remain well below

normal for mid-February (high 30s-mid 40s).

 

The main period of concern continues to be Sunday night through

Monday afternoon. As a second amplifying trough digs into central

TX, an associated coastal low will develop at the surface and push

into the central Gulf by late Sunday. Ample moisture associated with

this feature combined with subfreezing ambient conditions will

prove favorable for periods of snow, sleet, and freezing rain to

impact all of SE Texas. The most concerning period continues to be

the morning hours of Monday, where model soundings within Houston

metro show a highly favorable profile for freezing rain. In general,

precipitation should begin as mainly rain late on Sunday,

transitioning to sleet/freezing rain overnight and finally becoming

a mix of snow, sleet, and/or freezing rain during the day on Monday.

Snowfall accumulations will reach around 1-3", mainly to the north

of the Houston metro. Ice accumulations of 0.10 to 0.25" are

possible across the metro northward with lower amounts southward.

 

This complex period of winter weather will create extremely

hazardous roadway conditions, particularly on Monday morning. Non-

essential travel should unequivocally be avoided during this time.

Snow accumulation and significant icing will cause widespread

impacts to road networks. Plan to remain where you are on Sunday

night for at least all of Monday.

 

As the second system departs and clearing occurs, we'll enter what

will likely be the coldest night across SE Texas in approximately 30

years. Lows will dip into the single digits at most locations north

of I-10, with locations to the south reaching the 10s to lower 20s

along the coast. Temperature records are likely to fall. All

residents of SE Texas should begin to take steps to protect the 4 Ps

- people, plants, pets, and pipes. Due to the combined strain of

increased energy demands due to cold temperatures and previous

winter precipitation, there is also a distinct chance of power

outages during this time.

 

We continue to monitor the development of a third system which may

bring additional freezing rain/sleet to the area on Wednesday and

Thursday. Given the timeframe and differences in model solutions,

there continues to be uncertainty surrounding this event. However,

there remains the potential for additional disruption due to winter

precipitation to occur through mid-week.

 

Now is the time to prepare for this period of hazardous weather. Be

sure to have multiple ways to receive weather information and

continue to monitor the forecast.

 

Cady

 

Saturday, February 13

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

455 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

 

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

 

Due to overcast skies and cold air advection, today's and

tomorrow's high temperatures will struggle to reach near freezing

for areas north of Harris County and West of Fort Bend County.

Everywhere else is expected to reach highs near 40. Overnight

lows tonight will be below freezing north of I-10 and outside of

the Houston-Metro area. Remaining areas will hover near freezing.

 

An approaching shortwave trough from the southwest will gradually

bring rain chances starting this afternoon as it pushes east

across our area. With forecast soundings indicating a well-

saturated column below 700mb, a brief elevated warm layer, and

surface temps hovering near freezing, freezing drizzle and some

form of wintry mix are possible with these passing, isolated

showers. Highest chances for this wintry mix and winter precip are

north of I-10 and the Houston-Metro area. KBL

 

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Saturday]...

 

...Frigid, life and property threatening winter weather is expected

into Thursday...

 

* Bitterly cold air will continue moving into the region into

  midweek as an Arctic airmass spills into the area. Prolonged

  periods of below freezing temperatures are expected - even at the

  beaches.

 

* 2 weather systems (one Sunday night-Monday morning and another

  toward midweek) will produce winter precipitation across many

  parts of Southeast Texas.

 

* Travel will be impacted by hazardous road conditions. Sporadic

  power outages will be a possibility where ice builds up on

  powerlines and/or trees. Pipes (including sprinkler systems) will

  be subject to bursting if not adequately insulated, and

  hypothermia may be a possibility for those exposed and not dressed

  accordingly.

 

* Residents complete should complete preparations before the coldest

  air and widespread frozen precipitation begins arriving Sunday

  evening. Remember the 4 P's: pipes, people, pets and plants. In

  addition, be aware of space heater and generator dangers if not

  properly placed/used.

 

Sunday night-Monday morning storm system:

Still on track to move across the region. Winter Storm Warnings and

Watches remain in place across all of the region. The Watches will

be upgraded at some point later today or tonight assuming no earth

shattering forecast changes. The same general forecast reasoning

remains in place from previous several days worth of discussions so

won't rehash that. Look for rain-freezing rain to transition to a

mix then eventually snow as it exits. Not an ideal situation

whatsoever starting out with ice and expect this to cause numerous

impacts across the region. Precip will taper off by early afternoon.

 

Changes/tweaks made to the ongoing forecast include increasing snow

amounts, especially n/nw of Highway 59 where fcst soundings show the

warm nose eroding faster. Have storm totals of 3-4" across northern

parts of the area tapering down to around 1/2" just south of I-10

(this on top of ice). Though differing details between guidance,

several indicate the potential for significantly higher amounts with

banding and frontogenesis. Some models show prime upper jet

orientations to enhance over lift as well - but vary by model (LFQ

or RRQ). Also tweaked high temps down into midweek considering

frozen accumulations on the ground and lack of significant heating.

 

Highs for the day Monday will occur first thing in the morning

followed by continued falling readings thru the day. Bone chilling

readings in the single digits north and teens to low 20s coast are

expected Monday night.

 

Tue night-Thurs system:

Heading into Tues night and Wed, a sfc coastal trough will begin

developing in advance of the next upper trof fcst to push thru later

this week. This will transport moisture back overhead. Look for

precip to begin developing Tue evening then expand in coverage

overnight and Wednesday. A mixed bag of precip is anticipated,

depending on geographic location and model of choice. Didn't dig too

much into the specifics with this system considering it's many days

away and guidance is bound to change a million times between now and

then. But, the potential is there for additional accumulations and

associated impacts especially further inland from the coast where

the thermal profile will be better.

 

Precip should clear out ~Thurs evening followed by a gradual warm-up

next weekend. 47

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

403 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

 

...Frigid, life and property threatening winter weather is still

expected to develop across much of Southeast Texas into Thursday...

 

.DISCUSSION...

 

* Bitterly cold air will continue moving into the region into

  midweek as an Arctic airmass spills into the area. Prolonged

  periods of below freezing temperatures are expected - even at

  the beaches.

 

* Two weather systems (one Sunday night-Monday morning and

  another toward midweek) will produce winter precipitation across

  many parts of Southeast Texas.

 

* Travel will be impacted by hazardous road conditions. Sporadic

  power outages will be a possibility where ice builds up on

  powerlines and/or trees. Pipes (including sprinkler systems) will

  be subject to bursting if not adequately insulated, and

  hypothermia may be a possibility for those exposed and not dressed

  accordingly.

 

* Residents should complete preparations before the coldest air

  and widespread frozen precipitation begins arriving Sunday

  evening. Remember the 4 P's: pipes, people, pets and plants. In

  addition, be aware of space heater and generator dangers if not

  properly placed/used.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

 

Temperatures so far today have been hovering around or slightly below

freezing across our northwest counties, mid to upper 30s central and

lower to mid 40s coast. Almost nothing has been showing up on radar,

but that will change beginning tonight as the first disturbance moves

across the area and produces frozen precipitation north (where lows

will be near or slightly below freezing) and rain to the south (where

temperatures above freezing are expected). At 9 PM, the Winter Storm

Warning begins up north, and the Winter Storm Watch begins down south.

For the most part, light accumulations are expected overnight through

much of tomorrow morning with this first system, but any accumulations

in/near the warning area will lead to hazardous conditions.

 

High resolution models coming in are painting a potentially very dangerous

winter weather event over at least the next 48 hours (through Monday),

and with a long period of below freezing temperatures, very dangerous

conditions look to be setting up for parts of the area Tuesday through

Thursday night (see the Long Term section below).

 

The stronger system begins tomorrow afternoon and peaks tomorrow night

through early Monday morning. The Winter Storm Watch is upgraded to

a Winter Storm Warning at 3 PM Sunday, and this places the entire area

under the Warning through Monday afternoon. As temperatures fall from

Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, expect to see periods of rain

mixed with freezing rain/drizzle up north that will eventually transition

to snow, and expect to see periods of rain transitioning to rain mixed

with freezing rain/drizzle that eventually could transition to snow

down south...including the beaches. High resolution models coming in

are showing the potential for 1 to 3 inches of snow north (locally

higher amounts possible) with lower amounts as you get closer to the

coast. Further to the south, freezing rain accumulations may reach

a tenth to a quarter inch. If this happens, expect to see sporadic

power outages where the buildup occurs on powerlines and/or trees.

Pipes (including sprinkler systems) will be subject to bursting if

not adequately insulated, and hypothermia may be a possibility for

those exposed and not dressed accordingly. Monday's high temperatures

will struggle to get any warmer than the teens north and west and the

20s south and coast. A Hard Freeze Watch and a Wind Chill Watch begin

at 6 PM Monday for the entire area, and they will likely need to be

upgraded to a Warning.

 

You only have about one day left to prepare for this potentially historic

winter event!  42

 

&&

 

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

 

While the first round of winter precipitation comes to an end on

Monday afternoon, the other dangerous hazard going into the

overnight hours will be the extremely dangerous low temperatures. On

Tuesday morning, lows will be near zero in our northern counties,

around 10-15 degrees near Houston and in the upper-teens/lower 20s

along the coast. None of the winter precipitation will melt, so

travel conditions will be extremely hazardous through at least

Tuesday afternoon. This arctic air will be very frigid, and those

without the proper attire will be at risk of hypothermia if outdoors

for an extended period of time. For Tuesday, areas north of I-10

will likely remain below freezing even into the afternoon hours, so

any winter precipitation that has previously fallen will remain and

so will the hazardous travel conditions. South of I-10, temperatures

will make it into the mid-to-upper 30s and lower 40s along the

coast.

 

A surface coastal low begins to develop late Tuesday night/early

Wednesday morning. This will bring another round of precipitation to

the area throughout the day on Wednesday and into Thursday morning.

Model guidance is still iffy on the temperatures as far as the

freezing line goes. There is consistency that the initial surge of

moisture comes early on Wednesday when our northern counties will

still be below freezing. Forecast soundings support a freezing

rain/sleet mix initially for this area. Temperatures expected to

rise above freezing in the afternoon hours, so a transition over to

rain is anticipated during this timeframe. As far as the Wednesday

temperatures go, it'll be close (talking a 1-2 degree difference)

for our far northern counties on if they get above freezing. GFS and

Euro are in agreement on a transition back to freezing rain going

into Wednesday night for our northern counties as temperatures begin

to fall, followed by a transition to snow on early Thursday morning

as the precipitation finally comes to an end. Overnight temperatures

for Wednesday will drop below freezing once again for most of the

area (the exception being along the coast and our far southeastern

locations). With ground temperatures likely not recovering enough,

we could have another period of hazardous travel conditions for

Wednesday night/Thursday.

 

This may sound like a broken record, but high temperatures on

Thursday are likely to remain below freezing once again for our

northern counties. It is a very real possibility that our northern

locations may not reach above 32 degrees until Friday. Further to

south, temperatures will make it into the upper 30s/low 40s. The

somewhat good news is that high pressure will be moving in from the

west, so we'll see clearing skies and an end to the winter

precipitation. The mostly clear skies combined with continued CAA

with northerly winds flowing over the ice that will still be in

place to the north means we're expecting another hard freeze for

Thursday night with temperatures down into the teens up north and in

the 20s near the Houston metro area and south. High pressure moves

off to the east on Friday and puts us into a southerly flow.

Temperatures will FINALLY get out of the 30s as we see high

temperatures back into the 40s/50s which seems rather warm in

comparison. Southerly flow continues into Saturday where we will

likely see temperatures rise into the 60s. How's that for a

temperature swing?  26

 

Sunday, February 14

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

453 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

 

* Bitterly cold air will continue moving into the region into

  midweek as an Arctic airmass spills into the area. Prolonged

  periods of below freezing temperatures are expected - even at

  the beaches.

 

* Two weather systems (one tonight-Monday morning and another

  toward midweek) will produce winter precipitation across many

  parts of Southeast Texas.

 

* Travel will be impacted by hazardous road conditions. Sporadic

  power outages will be a possibility where ice builds up on

  powerlines and/or trees. Pipes (including sprinkler systems) will

  be subject to bursting if not adequately insulated, and

  hypothermia may be a possibility for those exposed and not dressed

  accordingly.

 

* Residents should complete preparations before the coldest air

  and widespread frozen precipitation begins arriving Sunday

  evening. Remember the 4 P's: pipes, people, pets and plants. In

  addition, be aware of space heater and generator dangers if not

  properly placed/used.

 

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

As the shortwave trough continues to push out this morning,

spotty areas of freezing drizzle and wintry precip are possible,

leading to hazardous conditions for areas near or below freezing.

Daytime highs will be below freezing for northern counties, in the

mid-30s for central counties, and upper-30s near 40 for southern

and coastal counties.

 

The strong, arctic front will begin to push through this afternoon,

peak tonight, and continue through early Monday morning. A Winter

Storm Warning is in effect for counties north of Harris County, but

remaining counties will be upgraded to the the Winter Storm Warning

at 3PM this afternoon. This warning will remain in effect through

tomorrow afternoon. In addition, a hard freeze watch and a wind

chill watch is in place for all counties tonight due to low

temperatures dropping to the 20s for southern counties, the teens

for central counties, and single digits for our far northern

counties. However, this hard freeze watch and wind chill watch is

expected to be upgraded to a warning later today.

 

For our northern counties, expect to see rain mixed with frozen

precip such as frozen drizzle and ice pellets, then transition to

snow. This pattern of rain transitioning to a wintry mix

transitioning to snow will progress further south throughout the day

and eventually reach the coast. High resolution models are showing

snow accumulations of 2-5 inches for our northern counties and up to

3 inches everywhere else. Isolated heavier amounts are possible with

models indicating localized, heavier bands. Total ice accumulations

are expected to reach 0.10 to 0.25 inches across our CWA with, once

again, locally heavier amounts possible. With ice accumulation,

power outages are possible due to freezing rain and ice buildup

along trees and powerlines. Pipes will be subject to bursting if not

properly insulated. Overall, these high resolution models are still

depicting a very dangerous winter weather event for much of Texas

now through Monday.

 

Monday's high temperatures will stay well below freezing with most

areas in the teens and low 20s. Below freezing temps are expected to

be long in duration with no signs of relief in the short-term.

Therefore, no winter precip is expected to melt, so travel

conditions will continue to be very hazardous. This extreme arctic

air will be very frigid, and those without the proper attire will be

at risk of hypothermia if outdoors for an extended period of time.

KBL

 

&&

 

.LONG TERM [Monday night Through Sunday]...

Precip should mostly be done by Mon evening. However, dangerously

cold wx continues with temps falling into the low single digits

toward College Station and upper teens at the beaches overnight.

Wind chills will be below up to -10F at some locations.

 

Many locations north of I-10 won't make it above freezing til

Wed...and then only for a short time period until the next system

rolls in.

 

On Tues, sfc high pres will be edging to the east and expect a

coastal low to begin developing along the middle Tx coast in

advance of the next upper trof and storm system. This will bring

some slightly modified/warmer air (35-40F) to coastal locations,

but will also begin drawing moisture back into the region. Look

for increasing precip/coverage Tue night into Wed will inland.

With readings still below freezing inland, expect this to pose

another freezing rain threat across inland parts of the region

during that time period. The coastal trof should move ene along

the Upper Texas coast during the day Wed followed by upper trof

Wed night & Thurs. It'll be during that time where precip

transitions to sleet/snow for, as of now, what looks to be north-

northwest of the Highway 59 & US-69 corridor. Too early for

reliable specifics in regards to frozen accumulations, but it does

appear likely and another impactful winter event for some

unfortunately. Temperatures will again fall below freezing across

the vast majority of the area in the wake of this system.

 

High pressure will move off to the east late Friday which should

bring a return of onshore winds...and warmer temperatures next

weekend. 47

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

259 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

 

...Frigid, life and property threatening and potentially historic winter

weather events can be expected across much of Southeast Texas through

Thursday Night...

 

No significant changes have been made to to the highlights below.

 

* Bitterly cold air will continue moving into the region through

  midweek as an Arctic airmass spills into the area. Prolonged

  periods of below freezing and near all time record cold

  temperatures are expected - even at the beaches.

 

* Two weather systems (one tonight through Monday morning and 

  another one toward midweek) will produce winter precipitation

  across many parts of Southeast Texas.

 

* Travel will be impacted by hazardous road conditions. Sporadic

  power outages will be a possibility where ice builds up on

  powerlines and/or trees. Pipes (including sprinkler systems)

  will be subject to bursting if not adequately insulated, and

  severe hypothermia may be highly possible for those exposed and

  not dressed accordingly.

 

* Residents should rush to completion all of their preparations

  this afternoon through early this evening before the arrival of

  the coldest air and widespread frozen precipitation this evening

  and overnight. Remember the 4 P's: pipes, people, pets and

  plants. In addition, be aware of space heater and generator

  dangers if not properly placed/used.

 

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

 

Major winter weather event (a mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet and

snow) will continue to unfold during the remaining afternoon hours,

on through this evening and overnight, and then come to an end from

west to east during the morning hours on Monday as the storm system

moves into and across the state. Look for precipitation coverage on

radar to continue to increase this afternoon and peak during the

overnight and early morning hours. Locations that are already at

or below freezing (mainly northern and western areas) can expect

to see mainly sleet and snow while locations that are near or slightly

above freezing (mainly southern and eastern areas) can expect rain

and freezing rain to more gradually transition to sleet and snow

as temperatures work their way downward. Models generally support

locations up north (CLL to Crockett areas) to receive the higher

snowfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts,

locations around and to the north of the I-10 to I-59/69 corridor

to receive 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts, and near the

coast light accumulations. Areas that remain near or above freezing

the longest have the potential to receive the highest and most

dangerous ice accumulation potentials of 1/10 to 1/4 inch (again,

locally higher amounts possible), and this looks like it might set

up near/around the Houston area and especially for locations off

to their east and southeast. As usual, winter precipitation forecast

is quite challenging for Southeast Texas, and would not be at all

surprised if there are slight shifts in the exact higher amount

locations. With the entire area under a Winter Storm Warning, a

Hard Freeze Warning and a Wind Chill Warning, everyone should rush

to completion all preparations for this major winter weather event.

After the precip event comes to an end from west to east on Monday

morning and afternoon highs struggle to remain in the upper teens

to mid 20s (maybe near 30 at the coast), bitterly cold temperatures

and wind chills will become our next concern as we head on into

Monday night.

 

Please stay safe out there, remain home and do not travel! 42

 

&&

 

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Sunday]...

 

Round one of the winter precipitation will have come to an end by

Monday night. Monday night/Tuesday morning will feature extremely

dangerous arctic temperatures. Low temperatures will be in the

single digits for our northern and western counties, 10-12 degrees

around the Houston metro area, and in the teens further to the south

and along the coast. Wind chill values will be well below zero out

to the north and west and in the single digits elsewhere. Please

take these hazards seriously. The ice and snow will not melt and

hazardous travel conditions will remain in place. Travel is HIGHLY

discouraged through at least Tuesday. Minimize your time outdoors

and wear proper attire if you go outside. You will be at risk of

hypothermia if outdoors for an extended period of time. Afternoon

temperatures on Tuesday are not expected to get above freezing for

most locations north of I-10, so the ice and snow will remain in

place on the roads. It's not until Wednesday where a brief period of

above-freezing temperatures come into the area as another coastal

low develops and initially pushes in some slightly warmer air. High

temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 30s/40s for inland areas

and in the 50s along the coast. Model consensus is not entirely

there as far as who gets freezing rain and who gets liquid rain

initially on Wednesday morning along with the extent of the

moisture. Our northern counties have the highest chance of seeing

freezing rain in the morning hours before a transition over to rain

as temperatures warm above freezing. Favorable jet mechanics will be

in place with divergence aloft, but differences remain in models on

how quickly the moisture moves out of the area. Current thinking is

that moisture sticks around into Wednesday night/Thursday morning,

so as temperatures drop below freezing we will see a transition over

to winter precipitation at the tail end on Thursday morning for

areas north of I-10. Uncertainty remains on if the winter

precipitation will be freezing rain, sleet, or snow, but leaning

more towards another freezing rain event.

 

High pressure moves into the area on Thursday and we'll see clearing

skies with temperatures in the 30s and 40s. Below freezing

temperatures likely to remain in our far northern counties due to

the CAA over the frozen ground. Thursday night/Friday morning will

feature another hard freeze with temperatures dropping into the

teens up north and into the 20s further to the south due to

radiational cooling underneath the mostly clear skies. We won't be

trapped in this cold weather pattern all week though...warmer

temperatures are on the horizon! High pressure shifts to the east on

Friday afternoon and reintroduces onshore flow to the area.

Resultingly, temperatures will rise into the 40s and 50s across the

area on Friday. If that's not warm enough for you, temperatures will

be back into the 60s by next weekend as onshore flow persists. 26

 

Monday, February 15

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

433 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

 

*** ROADS ARE DANGEROUS - STAY WHERE YOU ARE***

 

...DANGEROUS, LIFE AND PROPERTY THREATENING BITTERLY COLD AIR

WILL CONTINUE EVEN AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS MORNING...

 

..SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

Well...it's here. Ice, sleet & snow. Some thunderssleet/now mixed

in for fun - even at the the beaches. Bulk of the precip should

be out of here by mid morning with some lingering flurries into

the afternoon. Bitterly cold air continues to filter in and the

majority of the area has, or are currently sitting at their

daytime highs. Interestingly, wind direction is such where we

wouldn't be totally surprised to see some "lake effect" snow

flurries along some of the nnw-sse oriented waters or Galveston

Bay into tonight. Of course, don't have experience forecasting

such things...but may be interesting to see as some of the hires

guidance hints at.

 

Went with the lowest-of-the-low hires model guidance and cut

another degree or two for overnight lows. Wouldn't be surprised to

see some readings bottom out below zero across northern parts of

the area. Temperatures will remain below freezing at the beaches

until late Tues...and quite possibly until Friday across the

northern 1/4 of the CWA.

 

As sfc high pressure edges east and the next storm system

approaches from the west, we'll see a coastal trof set up during

the day Tues, leading us into round #2 for potential frozen

precip for some parts of the area. Keep in mind...accumulations

that are out there right now aren't going away across the northern

half of the area ahead of the next system... 47

 

&&

 

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Overnight temperatures on Tuesday will warm by over 20 degrees

across some parts of the area when compared to the previous night

due to increased cloud cover and WAA from onshore flow. Temps

will be near 40 along the coast and in our southern counties, near

30 for central counties, and the mid-20s for northern counties. A

drastic improvement from the single digits and teens the night

before, though still very cold.

 

By Wednesday, a coastal low is expected to develop ahead of the next

front. That continued onshore flow and increased cloud coverage will

help increase temperatures once again. GFS and Euro are showing

850mb temp advection near 20-25 C/hr.  However, central and northern

counties will still only reach daytime highs of near or below

freezing. That being said, with forecast soundings showing a large

pocket of warm air aloft and a very shallow below freezing layer

near the surface, and surface temps at or below freezing for

northern and central counties, the return of wintry precipitation is

expected. Right now profiles indicate a freezing rain type event,

once again, with the northern counties having the highest chances.

Along the coast it is expected to be too warm, so only cold rain is

expected with this system. The GFS and Euro both show some wrap-

around precip behind this front as it pushes out on Thursday. Both

models show an upper-level jet streak forming north of our CWA with

our far northern counties underneath the left entrance region. These

favorable upper-level dynamics as well as strong CAA behind the

front will bring possible snow to our northern counties once again

late Wed/early Thursday.

 

Thursday through Saturday will see drastic improvements in

conditions with a gradual warming trend due to a high pressure

settling in. Overnight lows will dive back down to below freezing

Thursday night in the wake of Wednesday's front. That should be

short-lived as skies clear, allowing daytime heating in addition to

the return of onshore flow which will bring back some much needed

WAA. Temps will reach back to the 40s by Friday and then the 50s and

60s by Saturday.

 

Towards the end of the long-term forecast period, another shortwave

trough develops over the North Central Plains on Sunday and Monday

and the resultant surface front is expected to push through our CWA.

Fortunately, it is expected to remain warm enough for just a rain

event, no snow or wintry mix. KBL

 

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

400 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

 

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Tuesday]...

 

...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY

MORNING...

 

Arctic high pressure will continue to settle across the region

tonight, with the core of the coldest air upon us. With 925mb

temperatures from -2 to -15 C over our area, dangerously cold

temperatures are expected tonight. Overnight lows will plummet

into the single digits across most of the region, and into the mid

to upper teens along the coast. Fortunately, pressure gradient

relaxes as the surface ridge settles in, leaving us with

relatively light winds through the night. However, dangerous wind

chill values are still expected, mainly early Tuesday morning.

Wind chills from the single digits to teens below are expected

north of I-10 and in the single digits above south of I-10. A Wind

Chill Warning and a Hard Freeze remain in effect until noon

Tuesday.

 

The good news is that no precipitation is expected, at least

through late Tuesday. Surface high pressure gradually moves east

throughout the day on Tuesday, shifting winds from the east, then

southeast by the afternoon. Temperatures will only make it into

the mid 20s to low 30s north of I-10 and into the mid 30s to low

40s along the coast. 05

 

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Monday]...

 

Another storm system will approach from the west on Tuesday night

and produce a round of precipitation beginning late Tuesday evening

and continuing through Wednesday night. The thermal profile favors

rain and freezing rain for most of this event, so it is critical as

to where surface freezing temperatures will be present around

midnight Wednesday. Thinking that coastal areas will see some

warming due to modification of the cold airmass and the freezing

rain threat will begin a little south of I-10 for western areas,

with Houston right on the southern edge of the threat. During the

day on Wednesday, temperatures will warm some and the freezing rain

threat will lift northward, but remain for far northern areas. Some

additional light sleet and freezing rain are possible across the

same area as the storm system is exiting off to the east late

Wednesday night. Ice accumulations are likely to range from a little

less than a tenth of an inch for south central areas to around a

quarter of an inch across northern areas. Note, a half inch is

possible around Crockett and Trinity.   

 

Behind this storm system, cold air will surge south again with an

inland hard freeze expected Friday morning. Min temperatures will

likely be back in the teens across NW areas with mid 20s across

central and inland areas. By Friday afternoon, with abundant

sunshine, the entire area should warm above freezing; however,

northern areas will only reach the mid to upper 30s. A more

significant warmup begins on Saturday and continues the rest of the

weekend.

 

Wood

 

Tuesday, February 16

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

444 AM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

 

...Bitterly cold temperatures today...

 

...Significant ice storm tonight and Wednesday for portions of

southeast Texas...

 

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday]...

Today:

Very cold with temperatures starting out in the single digits to

teens and wind chills near or below zero. Axis of surface high

pressure edges to the east and a coastal trof begins developing.

Look for increasing cloud cover across coastal and w/sw parts of

the region and Gulf moisture begins overspreading the cold airmass

at the surface. Scattered light precipitation will begin

developing offshore later in the day.

 

This evening into around noon Wednesday:

Coastal trof will become better established and a low pressure

area will develop south of the Matagorda Bay area. Light

precipitation will begin spreading inland...first across southwest

parts of the CWA then northeast across the remainder of the area

overnight as the coastal low treks across the upper Tx coastal

waters and some lead shortwaves from the upper trough to the west

skirt across northern half of the area.

 

The freeze line around sunset should be situated from roughly the

northern Matagorda Bay area to Houston to Winnie. Although precip

will initially be light, those at or below the freezing mark will

see roads/bridges begin to ice.

 

Going into the midnight hour and beyond, the freeze line should

VERY VERY slowly edge north, but precip intensity/amounts will

increase. Locations north of the Highway 59 - Interstate 10

corridor become much more troublesome with some significant icing

as the night wears on. Extremely concerned for the northern half

of the CWA especially north of Highway 105 where ice accumulations

should average nearly 1/4". Some guidance - notably HREF members,

indicate the *potential* for significantly more amounts

(0.5-1.0"+). Most favored locations would be northeast parts

(Madison, Walker, Polk, Trinity and Houston Co's). Should these

type amounts actually occur...this would cause devastating

impacts to structures, powerlines and agriculture.

 

Wednesday afternoon and night:

Surface temps should climb above freezing for most of the area,

though there will remain lingering ice at many locations

especially north of the metro area. Anything that melts could very

well freeze over again Wednesday night. In addition, with any

lingering moisture left - additional disturbances moving across

the region Wed night into Thurs morning will have the potential to

produce some snow/sleet...though negligible accumulations <1/2"

(considering the earlier precip and impacts).  47

 

&&

 

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

In the wake of the Wednesday/Thursday's front, a high pressure will

begin to settle in over Texas and the long awaited warming trend

will finally arrive. Clear skies on Friday will allow temperatures

to reach the 40s on Friday. On Saturday, the return of southerly

winds and its corresponding WAA will drive temperatures up even

further to the 60s along the coast and mid-50s everywhere else.

 

By Sunday, a negatively tilted trough is expected to be over the

Four-Corners region in the Western US, and its associated surface

cold front will be approaching Texas. For our CWA, onshore flow will

strengthen and global models are indicating some rain chances

offshore and along the coast. However, forecast soundings don't look

that promising with plenty of dry air and a capping inversion near

the surface and near 850mb. Therefore, any precip that might try to

form offshore and along the coast will be shallow and stratiform.

 

By Monday, rain chances will increase as the previously

aforementioned cold front is expected to push through SE TX. The GFS

and Canadian models are handling these next rain chances similarly,

with a broad swath of rain pushing through our region and leaving

our area by early Tuesday morning. However, the ECMWF is keeping

most precip to our west and offshore as the cold front develops just

west of our CWA. This far out, these models are definitely going to

change, so as of right now, expect another round of rain on Monday,

but timing, location, and duration are uncertain for now. KBL

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

341 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

 

...Significant and dangerous ice storm tonight and Wednesday for portions

of Southeast Texas...

 

...Travel is expected to become impossible across northern portions

of the area...

 

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday Night]...

 

Weather conditions will be deteriorating tonight as low pressure

develops south of the Matagorda Bay area. As this low moves into

our coastal waters overnight and on through the waters Wednesday

morning, light precipitation will develop and spread inland while

shortwaves from the upper trof to our west scrape across the northern

parts of our area. Some icing could develop this evening where

precipitation falls near areas around freezing. The real mess looks

to begin to develop after midnight as the freezing line moves slowly

inland. Expecting increasing precipitation coverage during the

overnight through morning hours with significant icing possible

the further north you go. After looking at area soundings and model

trends, it still looks like locations north of Highway 105 will have

the greatest potential for the highest ice accumulation totals of

around 1/4 inch or higher. If this occurs, there could be devastating

impacts to structures, powerlines and agriculture. Of course, driving

should not occur - Stay home! Even areas south of Highway 105 to the

I-10 corridor will be susceptible to icing with potential totals of

around 1/10 to 1/4 inch (1/10 closer to I-10 and 1/4 closer to Highway

105). Again, the safety risk is too great to get on the roads - Stay

home! Improving conditions do not look to occur until late tomorrow

morning or early tomorrow afternoon when activity starts to come to

an end from west to east. With temperatures not expected to rise much

above freezing tomorrow afternoon (especially up north), any freezing

ice that has accumulated will be sticking around, and any melted ice

will freeze over again tomorrow night through Thursday morning with

temperatures in the 20s/30s.

 

Hang in there...warmer temperatures are coming! 42

 

&&

 

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

 

Residual moisture in the wake of the departing surface low/cold

front may result in some lingering wintry precipitation heading into

Thursday morning, with light snow showers/sleet/ice pellets a

possibility. That being said, impacts from this spotty precipitation

are likely to be minor in comparison to the weather we anticipate

impacting the area in the immediate term. Behind the departing

system, northerly winds will result in another frigid day across SE

TX, with highs in the mid-30s inland to low 40s near the coast and

widespread overnight lows in the upper teens to low 20s. Actions to

protect people, pets, plants, and pipes from the persistent extreme

cold should be continued during this time.

 

Yet another unseasonably cold day, though a drier one, is in store

on Friday as high pressure remains dominant over the South Central

CONUS. However, as this surface high pushes eastward as we reach

Saturday, a long-awaited warming trend will begin as we finally see

the re-emergence of an onshore flow pattern. As a result, highs on

Saturday break into the 50s while on Sunday temperatures reach the

mid to upper 60s at most locations.

 

Increasing moisture upon the redevelopment of southerly winds will

push total PWs back towards the vicinity of 1.0 in on Sunday

afternoon. Our next chance at precipitation (thankfully, it looks

like purely a rain event this time) will come on late Sunday/early

Monday as a surface cold front traverses the area and produces

scattered showers. The surge of cold air behind this departing

boundary will be comparatively weaker and far less persistent, with

lows not reaching below freezing in its wake on Monday night and

highs returning to the upper 60s/mid 70s by Tuesday afternoon.

 

Cady

 

Wednesday, February 17

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

449 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

 

...Winter Storm Warning In Effect Through Noon Thursday...

...Ice Storm to Impact The Region...

 

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday Afternoon]...

Much of the forecast today through Thursday focuses around the

temperatures across the region and the associated freezing rain

and rain occurrence. The freezing line at 4 am stretched from

Columbus to Conroe to Cleveland but with T/Td spreads to the south

of there leaving room to wetbulb so will expect temperatures in

the 'warmer' sector to cool down to freezing as precipitation

rates increase this morning. Winter Storm Warning location remains

the same and still expect the southernmost edge of the warning

(roughly right along the Highway 59 corridor) to get some very

minor icy buildups. These areas to the north of the 59 corridor

are the issue where ice accumulations will range from just a few

hundredths of an inch to 0.25" or more. Freezing rain will be

depositing quickly on surfaces after this hard freeze we just had

and with some leftover sleet/snow on the ground temperatures will

be at or below freezing over the winter storm warning area. This

is very problematic allowing the freezing rain to collect on all

surfaces. Roads are going to get treacherous with icing and

bridges will of course be accumulating the ice as will elevated

surfaces/vegetation/powerlines and so on. Gradually temperatures

will warm as the profile becomes saturated near the surface and

strong WAA remains this afternoon. The freezing line should creep

northward this morning then this afternoon likely speed up moving

from around a Columbus to Conroe to Goodrich line perhaps as far

north as Bellville to Huntsville to Groveton line before cooling

takes over and WAA wanes/shifts east. The heaviest of the freezing

rain should be over the northern and northeastern portions of the

area and 0.1-0.25" of freezing rain should be common there. Some

isolated amounts in excess of 0.5" will be possible. That is a lot

of ice and impacts could be severe. Although as surface

temperatures warm above freezing the precip that falls switches

over to rain it will still be falling on ice crusted surfaces.

Some of the ice will melt but the damage will be done at that

point. Travel is not good idea as the icy accumulations of the

precipitation begins will be abrupt and driving conditions that

were clear could change over in just a few blocks to a skating

rink! Ice accumulations like this can quickly cause tree limbs to

snap and fall posing another life threatening impact, along with

bringing down powerlines. Already the region is suffering from

power outages and again these could worsen with the icing. Roads,

sidewalks, stairs will become treacherous with the icing. This

afternoon as a surface low tracks across the coastal waters and

into Louisiana northerly winds will increase and begin to push

the cold air south again. Temperatures in the wake of the

associated cold front should fall back below freezing so wet

surfaces are going to freeze up late this afternoon/early this

evening. Travel will continue to be very difficult. Even the

coastal counties that have been spared the freezing rain today will

have to deal with the wet ground freezing up in some places by 5

am Thursday. In the wake of the front Thursday morning a band of

some light snow/sleet will be possible over generally the same

region that the winter storm warning is in place for now as the

shortwave over Northern California this morning races southeast

and helps to drag the the cold upper trough into SETX. Thursday

afternoon the temperatures rise back above freezing over much of

the region and the trace snow amounts should melt before

temperatures tumble again Thursday evening.

45

 

&&

 

.LONG TERM [Thursday Evening Through Wednesday]...

In the wake of this latest cold front, high pressure will begin

to settle into our region. Skies will clear and light northerly

winds will help cool overnight lows on Thursday back into the

teens for northern counties and the mid-to-upper 20s everywhere

else. On Friday, these mostly clear skies will allow daytime highs

to reach above freezing, with mid-to-upper 40s south of I-10 and

the mid 30s to the north. Overnight, continued northerly flow and

clear sky radiational cooling will allow another night of

below/near freezing temperatures. Areas north of Houston should

drop into the 20s while Houston and areas south will reach near

freezing.

 

By Saturday, the long awaited warming trend will arrive! Southerly

winds arrive helping to advect warmer and more moist air which

should help to increase cloud cover as well. Daytime highs will

reach the mid-50s and lower 60s on Saturday and mid-to-upper 60s by

Sunday. Overnight lows will also reach above freezing temps for the

first time in several days.

 

By late Sunday and early Monday another cold front is expected along

with the return of rain chances, but this front will be mild in

comparison to what we have recently experienced. The ECMWF and

Canadian models show a surface front strengthening and extending

just east of our CWA, so eastern and offshore areas have the highest

chance of rain. The GFS shows a broad swath of rain pushing through

our CWA as the surface front is much stronger and develops to our

northwest and pushes east across our region. There is still plenty

of time for these global models to come to a consensus, but for now,

expect rain chances to return late Sunday through early Monday with

slightly cooler temperatures behind it. In the wake of

Sunday/Monday's front, overnight lows will still remain above

freezing and daytime highs will be in the mid-50s to lower 60s.

 

Finally towards the end of the forecast period, the GFS and Canadian

are indicating a shortwave 500mb trough developing in SW CONUS and

the Baja peninsula and a vertically stacked low developing beneath

it at the surface, whereas the ECMWF is not picking up on this

system at all. Should this shortwave trough push through quickly

like the GFS is suggesting, there could be another round of rain

chances late Tuesday/early Wednesday, but global models are in

disagreement overall and there will be time to hone this forecast

further over the next few days. KBL

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

1017 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

 

.UPDATE...

 

Low pressure over the western Gulf will move E-NE and pull away

from the region. A mixture of rain, freezing and rain and sleet

will diminish and end this afternoon. But the damage has been done

with icy roads and power lines/trees becoming glazed over. Icy

conditions expected to persist this afternoon despite rain

diminishing. Will leave the Winter Storm Warning as previously

configured as sub-freezing temperatures expected to redevelop

tonight and residual wet spots could become icy spots. Have

lowered MaxT values for this afternoon. No other changes. 43

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

301 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

 

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday Night)

 

Low pressure over the western Gulf has moved east and colder air

will funnel into SE TX in the wake of the low. Colder temperatures

will continue to surge back into SE TX tonight and only persistent

cloud cover will mitigate a stronger temperature fall. That said,

MinT values will likely bottom out in the mid 20's far NW to

around 30 over the south. Residual water on area roadways will

likely refreeze creating icy conditions on area highways/roads and

drivers should exercise extreme caution if venturing out tonight.

Ice that accumulated on trees and powerlines will not melt and

this could also create some trouble if branches should fall on

structures or take down power lines. Since the heavy icing that

occurred this morning has ended but the risk from residual icing

remains and additional light winter precip is expected later

tonight, feel a Winter Weather Advisory is more applicable than a

Winter Storm Warning in regards to discussing the ice hazard and

possible winter precip. 

 

Most of the precipitation has exited the area but weak upper

level troughing remains over the state and a weak disturbance

embedded in the W-SW upper flow will bring additional

precipitation to the region later tonight into early Thursday.

Fcst soundings and thickness values support a mixture of light sleet

and snow changing to all light snow on Thursday morning. Moisture

levels look meager and fcst soundings show a lot of dry air in

the 850-700 mb layer so not expecting much more than a dusting.

That said, there is some fairly strong 850-700 mb frontogenetic

forcing from Columbus to Houston. Sometimes, the forcing is

strong to compensate for a lack of moisture so it's something

that bears watching. MaxT values won't warm much on Thursday and

will struggle to reach freezing at KCLL and probably only warm

into the upper 30's at KIAH and points southward. Could get a peak

of sun late Thursday afternoon as subsidence develops in the wake

of the morning short wave.

 

Skies will clear Thursday night and temperatures will once again

plunge to very cold values with mid teens likely by sunrise

generally north of a Brenham to Trinity line. Temperatures will

fall into the lower and mid 20's over the southern half of the

region. A Hard Freeze Watch will be in effect for Thu Night into

early Friday. SE TX will be looking at another 10-16 hours below

freezing and probably 8 to 10 hours below 25 degrees north of the

Brenham-Trinity line. Another Wind Chill Advisory or Warning may

also be required as Wind Chill values are expected to fall into

the single digits north and teens central. 43

 

&&

 

.LONG TERM [Friday through next Wednesday]...

 

I'll start off with the bad news. Hard freeze conditions return on

Friday morning as surface high pressure settles into the South

Central CONUS and northerlies strengthen, with residents of the

northern counties expected to experience temperatures in the teens

once again as the sun rises while the Houston metro unlikely to

break 30 degrees overnight. As a result, we have issued a Hard

Freeze Watch for all non-coastal counties during this time.

Residents impacted by the current power outage situation should plan

to continue to take protective actions as the subfreezing

temperatures continue. Highs on Friday afternoon will reach the mid

30s to mid 40s, a slight increase over the previous day as a

relaxing surface pressure gradient moderates CAA.

 

The remainder of the long-term forecast period brings some better

news. One more night of subfreezing temperatures will arrive on

Friday evening, with lows once again dipping into the upper teens to

20s at most locations as clearing promotes more efficient nocturnal

cooling. However, by Saturday, an eastward shift of surface high

pressure will bring about a long-awaited return to an onshore flow

pattern which will gradually work to increase temperatures and dew

points through the weekend. Most locations finally see the 50s on

Saturday and subfreezing overnight lows finally cease. More

seasonable, but still below average temperatures return on Sunday as

continued WAA allows for highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

 

A developing lee cyclone will push into the Great Lakes region as

troughing becomes dominant over the Central CONUS by early Monday,

and a surface cold front extending from this feature will approach

SE Texas. Fortunately, the passage of this feature looks to be

relatively uneventful. The main question continues to be the extend

to which scattered showers will accompany the approaching front.

Latest GFS & Canadian solutions indicate more ample moisture return

and as a result more precipitation as the front pushes through the

area by Monday afternoon. The EC remains drier with less

precipitation coverage. Have included slight chance PoPs for most

locations for the time being, but this will likely need adjusting

based on model consensus over the next couple of days.

 

Temperatures cool a bit with the fropa though am not currently

carrying any subfreezing overnight lows on Monday. Clearer and

gradually warming conditions look to persist through mid week with

highs on Wednesday breaking back into the 70s.

 

Cady

 

Thursday, February 18

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

439 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021

 

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Afternoon]...

Cold start this morning with temperatures down in the 25-33 degree

range with northerly winds 5-15 mph inland and 15-20 near the

coast. Wind chills this morning over the northern sections of the

area will warrant a short wind chill advisory with them dipping

into the 10-14 degree range. Winter weather advisory continues

through 6 pm for the northern counties where some very light

snow/sleet will be possible as the upper jet increases this

morning then the pulls away to the east this afternoon. So far

although the radar reflectivities look somewhat impressive these

are highlighting the snow around 10000-12000 ft that is falling

into a dry and warmer layer melting and leaving little if any that

is making it through the layer. As the jet increase and some

slightly increased forcing occurs around 800-600mb with the layer

becoming more moist some of the snow falling into the layer should

survive to reach the ground as a mix of snow/sleet/graupel.

Accumulations should be very light. Lift wanes quickly around 3 or

4 pm over the west and east by 6 pm. Cloud cover should persist

throughout the day hampering the temperature rises as the CAA

continues across the region in the wake of the latest cold front.

Temperatures only rise 2-5 degrees today from where there are at

this point early this morning. The column dries out quickly

tonight and skies clear from west to east and a colder night will

be on tap. Hard freeze looks likely again for areas generally

north of the 59 corridor. Lows of 15-25 degrees will be common

place and even Galveston island is likely to see another night of

freezing. Icy roads that potentially thaw out but don't dry off

will become icy again in the evenings. Friday though will be an

improvement with temperatures rising above freezing areawide!

Coastal areas in the mid 40s...central upper 30s to mid 40s and

the northernmost counties 35-38. This will help melt much of the

lingering ice over the area...some of the more hard hit areas with

icing over the north will still have some left to deal with

though. Speaking of melting ice...that makes for an usual hazard

in SETX that of falling ice. Please be aware of your

surroundings...don't linger beneath any these potentially

dangerous chunks of ice that may fall. Areas that remain in the

shade or sheltered from drying and remain wet late this afternoon

and again Friday will be good candidates for slippery icy

locations so use caution when venturing out on the front/back

landings and sidewalks that maybe sheltered by trees. Much warmer

weather is headed this way this weekend! 45

 

&&

 

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Thursday]...

Somewhat good news Friday evening as it is the last night for below

freezing conditions across our CWA. Temperatures north of Conroe

will drop into the teens and low 20s. Meanwhile, temperatures south

of Conroe towards Houston will be in the mid-to-upper 20s while

southern and coastal regions will be near freezing. By Saturday,

daytime highs will range from the upper-40s for our northern

counties to the mid-50s for our southern and coastal counties. As

southerly winds return Saturday, warmer and higher PWAT air will

help drive temperatures up during the day and overnight. The

increased cloud cover overnight from this onshore wind will also

prevent heat from radiating out at night and keep temperatures mild

and above freezing.

 

Our next round of rain chances return on late Sunday through Monday

as a mid-latitude cyclone develops over Eastern CONUS. The sfc low

will be centered near The Great Lakes region, but its associated

surface cold front is expected to stretch, develop, and strengthen

over our region before pushing east and out of our CWA. Fortunately,

this cold front will be mild in comparison to our most recent arctic

fronts. In the wake of this next front, daytime highs will still be

in the 50s on Monday and overnight lows will be above freezing for

most areas and near freezing for far northern, Houston County.

 

By mid-week next week, it'll be time to break out some flip-flops

again as temperatures are expected climb back into the 70s. Global

models are hinting at another surface low developing somewhere over

North Texas or Oklahoma and a surface front pushing through SE

Texas, towards late Wednesday/Early Thursday, bringing our next

round of rain chances.

 

KBL

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

343 PM CST Thu Feb 18 2021

 

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

 

Snow flurries developed across the northern half of the area today

and these will end as drier air moves into the region from the NW.

With the drier air, skies will also begin to clear and once skies

clear and winds decouple, temperatures are going to take a tumble.

High pressure will build into West Texas and drift toward

east Texas toward morning. The cold air mass associated with the

high will once again settle over SE TX with MiNT values falling into

the teens over the north, low/mid 20's central and south and low

30's along the coast. A Hard Freeze Warning will remain in effect

tonight for most of SE TX with 6 to 8 hours of temperatures at or

below 25 degrees. A Wind Chill Advisory has also been issued

over the NW-W zones with WC values falling into the single digits

later tonight.

 

Friday will trend slightly warmer, or maybe it'll just feel a bit

better with sunny skies and less wind. Surface high pressure will

settle directly over SE TX by Fri afternoon with MaxT values ranging

from the mid 30's far NW zones to the mid 40's far southern zones

and coast.

 

Another night of very cold temperatures is expected Fri Night into

Sat morning as the surface high drifts east. Clear skies, light

winds and dry air will allow ideal radiational cooling to commence

and produce MinT values near 20 degrees far NW zones and mid/upper

20's elsewhere. A Hard freeze Watch is in effect for the NW zones

for tomorrow night.  43

 

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

 

In what will be a welcomed change for SE TX, a warming trend is

expected heading into the weekend with an end to subfreezing

temperatures now in sight. As high pressure departs eastward and a

return to onshore winds allows for enhanced WAA, we should finally

break into the 50s on Saturday. While lows overnight will remain

below normal, it'll be the first time in quite a while where no

subfreezing temperatures are anticipated across the entirety of SE

TX. The warming trend continues on Sunday with temperatures

pushing closer to near-seasonable values- the upper 50s across the

northern counties and low to mid 60s along the coast and in the

Houston metro.

 

The approach of a surface cold front on Sunday night/early Monday

morning will bring a slight cool-down to the area, though the

magnitude of this boundary passage will not come close to

approaching what we have seen over the past several days. Lows on

Sunday night dip back into the 30s/40s, though I have continued

not to carry any subfreezing temperatures in the forecast (though

CLL and surrounding areas will get close). Global models remain

bearish regarding the possibility of showers to encounter the

front, with the NAM/EC/GFS all indicating marginal QPF. Have

maintained slight chance PoPs as a result.

 

High pressure briefly enters the picture on Monday with offshore

winds providing CAA and allowing for daytime highs to return to

the 50s. However, this surface feature should depart quickly and a

return to southerlies can be expected on Tuesday afternoon.

Warming will continue into mid week with most locations seeing the

70s by Wednesday. A deepening lee cyclone may drag our next cold

front into SE TX on Thursday, though the timing of this feature

and magnitude of any associated precipitation looks more uncertain

for the time being.

 

Cady

 

Friday, February 19

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

453 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021

 

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Saturday Afternoon]...

Clear skies across the region this morning with north winds 5-10

mph inland and cold. Temperatures were 23 to 33 across the area

and wind chills of 14-22 were common. With the clear skies and

winds slowly relaxing inland expecting the temps to slowly fall a

few more degrees. Hard freeze warning and wind chill advisory

already verifying over the northern half of the area. Temperatures

will rise today up into the upper 30s to mid 40s even with the

northerly winds. Upper trough over the area departs to the east

and high pressure at the surface slides overhead by tonight. Clear

skies and dry column with winds decoupling should set the stage

for one more cold night. Hard freeze warning for the northern 1/2

of the area with temperatures falling into the low 20s. The

southern half is somewhat more challenging with lows of

26-34...and the coast currently forecasting 40 for Galveston but

if the winds relax enough then veer to the east or east southeast

before sunrise the then temperatures on the coast may actually

rise before sunrise and the forecast could be too cold. Saturday

the high moves into Louisiana and east and southeast winds return

to the region which will boost temperatures solidly into the 50s

areawide and wouldn't rule out some low 60s in the southwestern

counties. Should also begin to see some scattered clouds spread

northward over the coastal waters and eventually get into SETX by

late afternoon.

 

45

 

&&

 

.LONG TERM...[Saturday Night Through Friday]...

 

For the first time in forever, we're expecting low temperatures on

Saturday night to be ABOVE freezing! This is a welcome change after

such an extended period of frigid temperatures. Low temperatures

will dip into the upper 30s in our far northern counties, the 40s

further to the south (including Houston metro area), and 50s along

the coast thanks to surface high pressure moving off to the east.

The onshore flow continues into Sunday where we'll see temperatures

top out in the 60s for most locations. On Sunday night/Monday

morning, a weak cold front will pass through the area. This will not

bring a significant cool down like we had earlier this week, but it

will drop temperatures back down into the mid 30s/40s for Sunday

night. Rain showers will likely be along the boundary of this front,

but these will be light and short-lived. PWATs will be around 0.75"-

1.0" and favorable jet mechanics will be in place with divergence

aloft, but there will be a pretty sizable subsidence inversion

around 850 mb that will keep the bulk of the moisture from

extending vertically.

 

High pressure builds in behind this front as well but quickly pushes

off to the east and places us in an upward trend for temperatures

after Monday night. High temperatures will go from the upper 50s/low

60s on Monday to the mid-to-upper 60s on Tuesday to the 70s on

Wednesday. Our next cold front comes through on Thursday/Friday, but

uncertainty remains on the timing of FROPA with the GFS pushing the

front through substantially earlier than the ECMWF/Canadian models.

With the extended period of onshore flow in the early half of the

week, PWATs will be a bit higher at 1.00"-1.25" along with increased

Theta-E. Forecast soundings also indicate CAPE values of 700-900

J/kg in our northwestern counties, so have included isolated

thunderstorms in the grids for Thursday afternoon as the front moves

through and acts as the source of lift.

 

Once again, high pressure briefly brings northerly winds to the

region and quickly moves off to the east. This puts the region back

into onshore flow by Friday night/Saturday morning. GFS/ECMWF are in

agreement on a strong jet streak developing over the Southern

Plains, with the ECMWF placing the jet streak over TX/OK while the

GFS places it further north in OK/KS/MO. Have leaned towards the

ECMWF model which places the region in the right entrance region of

the jet streak. Favorable jet mechanics combined with increasing

moisture through the southeasterly winds means that rain chances

will pop back into the forecast for Friday.  26

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

303 PM CST Fri Feb 19 2021

 

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday Night)

 

Although still chilly, conditions have begun to moderate with the

help of abundant sunshine this afternoon. One more night of

freezing temperatures is expected as high pressure settles over SE

TX. Will maintain the Hard Freeze Warning for the N-NW zones but

models have trended a bit warmer for tonight. The rest of SE

Texas will endure a short period of freezing temperatures tonight.

Not real confident with regard to some patchy ground fog that

could develop but the ECMWF, NAM soundings and SREF data support

some freezing fog toward Saturday morning. The T/Td gap narrows

considerably tonight and felt it was best to at least mention some

potential for freezing fog over the northern half of the CWA in

the weather grids.

 

The surface high will shift east of the region on Saturday with an

onshore flow developing. This will lead to warmer temperatures and

a slight increase in moisture. Should start to see an increase in

clouds by afternoon as the moisture deepens. MaxT values will warm

into the upper 50's central and south and we have not been that

warm since February 10th. The northern zones will probably remain

in the 40's. Warm air advection will persist into Saturday night

and low temperatures will probably occur in the evening and either

hold steady or slowly rise as onshore winds continue to draw low

level moisture into the area. The WAA pattern will allow for

patchy fog and perhaps some drizzle late Saturday night. 43

 

&&

 

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

 

Some long-awaited warmth finally arrives on Sunday, when the return

of onshore flow should continue to promote WAA and push highs into

the 60s across the majority of SE TX. As a deepening surface low

approaches the great plains region, a cold front extending from this

feature will push through the central CONUS during the day on Sunday

and approach SE TX on Sunday night. With the boundary pushing

offshore by Monday, along with some isolated showers along and ahead

of it, another cooldown is expected. Fortunately, this will not be

close in magnitude to what we've experienced this week. That being

said, northerly winds behind the departing boundary will allow for

enhanced CAA and thus lows in the upper 30s to low 40s are on tap

for Sunday night and into Monday morning.

 

High pressure settles into the South Central CONUS following the

departure of the surface cold front, though its presence will be

short lived as its center advances fairly quickly into the central

Gulf by Monday. With onshore flow redeveloping at this time, a warm-

up into mid week will finally give us our first taste of seasonable

weather in quite some time. High temperatures will push into the

mid/upper 60s at most locations on Tuesday and the 70s across much

of the area Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness associated with onshore

Gulf moisture transport will inhibit nocturnal cooling by mid-week,

with lows on Wednesday and Thursday remaining in the upper 40s/low

50s.

 

Our next shot at widespread measurable rainfall (and perhaps some

isolated thunderstorms) looks to arrive on Thursday as our next

surface cold front pushes towards SE TX. Global models still not

fully on board in depicting this event with EC showing a slower

fropa than most recent GFS & Canadian solutions, though each

solution indicates more robust precip coverage/QPF with this

next system.

 

Cady

 

Saturday, February 20

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

501 AM CST Sat Feb 20 2021

 

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Sunday Morning]...

High pressure over LA ridging down over SETX this morning. Some

valley fog/freezing fog/low stratus developing in the some of the

northeastern river basins this morning and just to the east that

will expand southwestward this morning. This should dissipate

quickly after sunrise. Hard freeze warning will be allowed to

expire at 9 AM.

 

A very pleasant day on tap with that high pressure shifting

further away to the northeast pressures falling in the lee of the

Rockies. Flow veers from the east to the southeast and will begin

to increase the low level moisture and bring some modifying air

out of the Gulf (slightly warmer) into the region. Skies should

remain sunny allowing temperatures to climb into the 50s to lower

60s! 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Overnight the high slides

off further to the east and an upper trough swings out over the CO

plains/ and into western NE/KS leading to lower pressures over

Central Plains and increasing the southerly flow and begins to tap

into higher dewpoints. This becomes problematic with the now far

colder SSTs off the Upper Texas Coast. Buoy 42035 was reporting 59

degree sea surface temperatures just 10 days ago and is now

reporting 50 degrees...that is a tremendous cooling of the shelf

water and coastal sites from the PORTS data showing 41-46 degrees

in and around Galveston Bay and a chilly 39-43. With the return

flow expected and dewpoints forecast to increase to lower 50s with

southerly winds and the mixed layer moisture steadily increasing

as well it will be difficult to mix down drier air aloft. Although

the guidance isn't hitting on yet I would thoroughly expect that

seas fog will commence Sunday morning some where in the 7 to 10 am

window. This will of course play havoc with coastal temperatures

as the fog hinders insolation. 

45

 

&&

 

.LONG TERM [Sunday Afternoon Through Saturday]...

Temperatures will top out in the 60s for most locations on Sunday as

onshore flow persists for most of the day. If you missed overnight

lows in the 30s (ha!) then you're in luck because another cold front

is on the way with FROPA expected on Sunday night/Monday morning.

This will be a weak front and will not bring significantly cooler

air like last week. Low temperatures for Sunday night and Monday

night will be knocked back down to the 30s/40s. Scattered rain

showers will accompany the front due to a combination of PWATs

around 0.75"- 1.00", a shortwave trough digging into the Southern

Plains, and being located underneath the right entrance region of

a jet streak for divergence aloft. However, not expecting any

heavy rain or thunderstorms due to a subsidence inversion around

800 mb and a lack of instability.

 

Surface high pressure moves in behind this front but pushes eastward

quickly. This will put us back into onshore flow by Tuesday. You

know what that means....time to go up the Southeast Texas

temperature roller coaster! Temperatures will trend upward through

the early half of the week with highs in the 70s expected by

Wednesday. The climb halts there though as we have another cold

front on the horizon for Thursday. No significant cool down is

expected with this front either. Uncertainty still remains in the

timing of FROPA with the GFS and Canadian models pushing the front

through quite a bit quicker than the ECMWF model. Leaned towards a

Thursday afternoon timeframe for FROPA for now. The models do agree

on rain to be associated with this front as well thanks to a

sustained period of onshore flow steadily increasing PWATs to 1.00"-

1.25". Instability will be increased as well, so may see some

thunderstorms mixed in during FROPA especially for our northern

counties.

 

CAA will not last long following this front either as winds quickly

become onshore again by Friday night. Models indicate that a strong

jet streak will develop over the Southern Plains, but there is still

some uncertainty in its exact placement. This is important because

having upper-level divergence is key to taking advantage of the

increasing moisture from the onshore flow. Current thinking is that

the jet streak will be far south enough to include the region in the

right entrance region. Subsequently, rain chances have been added to

grids at the start of next weekend.

26

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

314 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2021

 

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday Night]...

 

Surface high pressure has moved off to the east allowing for

southerly winds and warmer temperatures to prevail across the

region. Tonight will be the first night in a long while where no one

across the CWA has freezing temps in the overnight forecast. Even

warmer conditions expected tomorrow, though we'll see some

increasing cloudiness as shallow Gulf moisture continues its return

to the area. The cold snap has caused a significant drop in water

temperatures near the coast (40s-mid 50s) so would anticipate some

sea fog development later in the day and evening Sunday as warmer

air overspreads. The next front should be moving into northern parts

of the region Sunday evening and off the coast by 3am or so. Look

for a specking of -ra as it approaches...probably consolidating into

a thin band of -ra as it approaches the US59 & I-10 corridor

southward. (Nothing of significance & no threat of frozen precip.) 47

 

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Saturday]...

 

A much welcomed warming trend is expected to take hold through the

middle of the upcoming week in the wake of the departing surface

cold front on Monday. We'll see a bit of a drop off in high

temperatures (50s to low 60s) and some chillier lows (mid 30s to

lower 40s) come Monday as moderate northerlies behind the

boundary enhance CAA, though an onshore flow regime quickly

redevelops on Tuesday with surface high pressure behind the cold

frontal boundary departing eastward. As a result, conditions will

make a return to near-seasonable values by mid-week, with highs

reaching the mid 60s on Tuesday afternoon and the lower 70s at

most locations on Wednesday. While the increasing onshore winds

should work to also increase cloudiness during this time, we'll

generally be seeing some of the most pleasant weather for the

region in quite some time.

 

Global models, while still divergent towards the end of the

extended forecast period, have come into a bit better agreement

with the 12Z suite of deterministic solutions. In general, the

arrival of the next surface front looks to be on track for

Wednesday Night into Thursday as a boundary extending from a

deepening low over the Great Lakes region traverses the South

Central CONUS. Moisture return ahead of the boundary's approach

remains a bit stronger in the EC solution compared to the latest

GFS, however expected QPF values have come into a bit better

agreement with showers developing along and ahead of it. Have

continued to include chance PoPs as GFS fropa remains a touch

faster than the EC and Canadian fropa is much faster.

 

As the boundary reaches the coastal waters, it looks likely to

stall offshore before pushing back northward as a surface warm

front. Precipitation chances look to return headed into the

weekend as this occurs, aided by favorable upper jet dynamics.

Amounts and intensity of this precip event remain uncertain for

the time being, but early consensus seems to suggest a wet weekend

ahead next week.

 

Cady