Heavy Rain Return to the Southwest U.S.; Potential Atlantic Tropical System Interaction

Heavy to excessive rainfall from monsoon thunderstorms may bring isolated flash and urban flooding to the Desert Southwest into Sunday. The tropical wave (AL94) continues to bring heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. The close proximity of Tropical Storm Humberto and AL94 could lead to interaction between them, but details of their track and intensity forecasts remain uncertain Read More >

Automatically generated image showing areas of the convective interest parameter.


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Convective Interest

This is a highly experimental index which attempts to show areas where surface based convection is favorable or may initiate within the next hour. The index uses a combination of several fields, (CAPE, CIN, low level lapse rates, moisture convergence, satellite, and most unstable LI) to develop a number between -100 and 100. Negative values are indicative of an environment not supportive of surface based convection. The higher the value, the more favorable the environment is for surface based convection. Values greater than 70 are suggestive that convective initiation will likely occur within the next hour in that region. This index works best in regimes of airmass (or pulse) convection or on days where the cap is the primary inhibiting factor for convection.

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Heavy Rain Return to the Southwest U.S.; Potential Atlantic Tropical System Interaction

Convective Parameters - Convective Interest