2012 Spring Flood Outlook

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
215 AM EST THU MAR 1 2012

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...

FOR THE SPRING OF 2012...THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER IS
CALLING FOR BELOW NORMAL FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND ALL OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT A BELOW
NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING MEANS DURING THIS TYPICAL PEAK FLOOD
PERIOD...SOME FLOODING MAY OCCUR....BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TO
THE EXTENT OF A TYPICAL SPRING SEASON.

THE EXCEPTION IS NORTHWEST GEORGIA WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAIN THIS
WINTER HAS CAUSED ABNORMALLY MOIST CONDITIONS. CONSEQUENTLY...A NEAR
NORMAL FLOODING POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED THIS SPRING FOR NORTHWEST
GEORGIA.

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE...UPPER AND LOWER SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS GENERALLY
WERE NEAR NORMAL IN NORTH GEORGIA AND BELOW NORMAL IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
DUE TO RECENT WEATHER SYSTEMS PRODUCING RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.

AVERAGE DAILY STREAM FLOWS FOR THE PAST 30 DAYS HAVE BEEN RUNNING
BELOW NORMAL IN PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA AND ALL OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA. OCCASIONAL VARIANCES HAVE OCCURRED DUE TO PERIODIC RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING...BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DECEMBER THROUGH
FEBRUARY TIME PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN NORTHWEST GEORGIA WHERE
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL STREAM FLOWS HAVE PREVAILED THROUGH MOST OF
THE WINTER WITH OCCASIONAL MINOR FLOODING.

CLIMATE REGIME...A WEAKENING LA NINA PATTERN HAS PERSISTED THROUGH
THE WINTER MONTHS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE SPRING.  THIS
PATTERN HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A STORM TRACK THAT HAS BROUGHT OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ABOUT EVERY 3 TO 5 DAYS.
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OVER NORTH GEORGIA
INSTEAD OF CENTRAL GEORGIA UNTIL RECENTLY.

RAINFALL...DURING THE PAST 90 DAYS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAS
PREVAILED OVER MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS AREA WAS
GENERALLY 35 TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 15
INCHES.  ISOLATED MINOR RIVER FLOODING OCCURRED IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA
IN DECEMBER AND JANUARY WHERE 15 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN OCCURRED WHICH
WAS NEAR NORMAL.

RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS...POOL LEVELS OF MOST MAJOR RESERVOIRS IN
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE RUNNING NEAR OR ABOVE TARGET LEVELS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT IS DURING THIS TIME THAT MANY OPERATORS
PLAN TO FILL THEIR RESERVOIRS TO SUMMER POOL LEVELS. NORMAL RAINFALL
SHOULD TAKE CARE OF THAT SITUATION.

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WEATHER MOVES INTO A
MORE TRANSITIONAL ENVIRONMENT IN THE SPRING WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF HEAVY RAIN.  MARCH IS TYPICALLY THE MONTH OF GREATEST RAINFALL
ACROSS GEORGIA. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY IS FOR
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND AND ALL OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA. THE EXCEPTION REMAINS TO BE NORTHWEST GEORGIA WHERE EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. THE WEAK
LA NINA WEATHER PATTERN WHICH HAS AFFECTED GEORGIA THIS PAST FALL
AND WINTER WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO A NEUTRAL PATTERN BY THIS
SUMMER.

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...

CONSIDERING THE RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 90 DAYS AND THE
PRE-EXISTING BELOW NORMAL SOIL CONDITIONS...THE OUTLOOK IS FOR A
BELOW NORMAL CHANCE OF FLOODING THIS SPRING IN PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
ALL OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST.

&&

FOR DETAILED WEB INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS
FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...GO TO:

         WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA

AND UNDER CURRENT WEATHER...CLICK ON "RIVERS/LAKES".

FOR PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS...GO TO:

         HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP

FOR FORECAST PRECIPITATION...GO TO:

         WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC/?N=QPFPAGEHPC24