039
FXUS64 KEWX 301143
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
543 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 214 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
Key Messages:
- Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms for Southern Edwards
Plateau and Hill Country early this morning; Marginal risk area
shifts east of Highway 281 and remains north of I-10 later today
- Marginal risk (Level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall across the
southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country, I-35 Corridor and Coastal
Prairies through early this afternoon.
- Near critical fire weather conditions possible this afternoon over
Edwards and Val Verde Counties.
Our best opportunity for deep layer lift and severe storms will be
between now and 11Z and mainly NW of a Liberty Hill to Boerne line.
Discrete cells moving mainly over West Central TX could produce some
hail and gusty winds over parts of Kerr, Gillespie, and Llano county
through 3 AM. low level shear could be sufficient to produce a brief
rotating storm, but a more likely storm shape is a bowing segment
given the strong mid level winds coming across. By daybreak, model
depictions of the rain area focuses more on the frontal boundary.
The general nature of the convective pattern looks weaker, and the
potential for a strong storm will probably not get much traction
until daytime heating interacts with the frontal zone over our far
eastern counties. The marginal runoff concerns are probably even
lower in terms of us needed to watch for flooding. There could be a
couple pockets of 2-3 inches before rain ends, mainly over Burnet
and Llano counties thanks to some slow moving storms Wednesday
evening. An upscaling storm trend as we get closer to daybreak
should have the rain areas moving increasingly more progressive, so
we expect most rainfall amounts will fall shy of 1 inch. On the
bright side, most of the heaviest QPF areas are inside the Highland
Lakes catchment area. Given the current deficits in this area, a 2-3
inch rain may only account for a brief bump in lake levels by a few
inches.
A zonal pattern with some ridging over TX will hang onto the milder
air that moved into the area Wednesday. Drying through today will
cool the dew points into mainly the teens and 20s by daybreak
Friday, so morning mins should still cool into the 40s for those not
ready for winter to go away. More daytime winds are expected for
Friday, so we`ll get two days in a row of above normal daytime temps
for the first time since Jan 4-5.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
Key Messages:
-Comfortable, dry for the weekend with cool mornings and mild
afternoons
-Unseasonably warm with near daily record highs on Monday
-Increasing cloud cover and humidity early to midweek
This should be a great weekend to go outside to embrace the ample
sunshine after our recent stretch of gloomy overcast and damp, cool
conditions. Overall, the upper level pattern flattens out and that
will be the case generally through the entirety of the long term
period. A light wind is expected Friday night into Saturday before
the dominant flow turns and increases out of the south as surface
high pressure slides east. Monday continues to be forecast as the
warmest day this week with afternoon highs threatening possible
daily record highs in the 80s. Humidity levels and cloud cover
increases early to middle of next week but no rain is forecast at
this time through the long term period. The daytime highs remain
generally springlike in the 70s and low 80s beyond Monday while
nighttime temperatures turn warmer as result of the increased
humidity and cloud cover.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
Complicated weather conditions will impact AUS through around 15Z
with intermittent rounds of showers the next hour and then a period
of possible storms ahead of a front from 13Z to 15Z. Some brief LIFR
cigs are possible, but the I-35 sites should see mainly IFR skies and
some occasional MVFR conditions ahead of the front. Conditions will
improve after 15Z at all 3 I-35 Corridor sites where VFR skies will
quickly take over before noon and the rest of the periods involve
the gusty afternoon winds that will relax again at the end of the
day.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
A breezy and dry day is in store for Val Verde and Edwards Counties,
However eastern Val Verde and nearly all of Edwards has been taking
on quite a bit of light shower activity since 04Z. This will be
considered as a wetting rain and all areas south and east should be
considered as near to above normal fuel moisture. Left behind is
central and western Val Verde county, which only picked up a few
light showers mainly Wednesday evening. Winds will kick up to 15 mph
today over this area while afternoon RH values drop into the teens.
We`ll issue a Fire Danger Statement for this localized hazard.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 214 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
February 3rd Record Highs (Years of Record):
Austin Camp Mabry: 81 (2008, 1911)
Austin Bergstrom: 80 (1976)
San Antonio: 85 (1911)
Del Rio: 89 (1911)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 72 47 72 44 / 100 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 46 72 39 / 90 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 45 74 41 / 90 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 71 44 69 42 / 70 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 74 46 78 40 / 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 71 46 70 41 / 100 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 77 44 75 39 / 30 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 73 44 72 40 / 90 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 45 71 41 / 90 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 76 47 74 44 / 70 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 75 46 75 42 / 70 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...18
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...18
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 01/30/2025 08:29:52 PM UTC
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