427
FXUS64 KEWX 090228
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
828 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 828 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2025
Winds have decreased below advisory levels. Thus, the Wind Advisory
has been cancelled. However, gusty winds continue tonight through
Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 200 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2025
Key Messages:
- Red Flag Warning for the western 2/3 of of South-Central Texas
until 8 PM Saturday.
- Elevated fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon Rio Grande
Plains and Edwards Plateau.
A Pacific cold front has moved through the Rio Grande plains,
western Hill Country and into the I-35 corridor from near San
Antonio southward. A more northern stream cold front as evidenced by
cooler temperatures and higher dew points can be seen dropping
southward along the I-35 corridor south of Austin to just north of
San Marcos. The drier air and gusty northwest winds still appear to
be focused across the western 2/3 of south central Texas, so no
changes will be made to the ongoing Red Flag Warning. Behind the
above mentioned cold fronts, expect the gusty northwest to north
winds to continue overnight and through most of the daytime hours on
Sunday. It will be cooler behind the front on Sunday, with highs in
the upper 50s to near 70. We did opt to go below the NBM guidance
across the Hill Country and nearby I-35 corridor north of San
Antonio as models show some post frontal clouds may linger tomorrow.
The gusty and dry conditions will lead to elevated fire weather
conditions, mainly across the Rio Grande plains and possibly the
southern Edwards Plateau. Clear skies, light winds and dry air will
allow overnight lows to drop into the lower 30s to lower 40s Sunday
night. River valleys and other low-lying areas over the Hill Country
will likely see a freeze.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2025
Key Messages:
- Warm, dry and breezy pattern continues through the long term
period with several critical fire weather days expected.
On Monday, southwesterly surface flow will resume as a surface high
departs to the east. South Central Texas will be within an area of
shortwave ridging ahead of the next frontal boundary expected to
arrive on Wednesday. Temperatures will be rather comfortable on
Monday, with most locations climbing into the mid to upper 70s.
Enjoy the comfortable temperatures, because a notable warmup is on
the way for mid to late week despite periodic frontal intrusions. In
fact, Wednesday`s frontal boundary can hardly be called a cold
front, as the only thing that will change behind the front will be
winds shifting to more westerly Wednesday afternoon. Near-Critical
to Critical fire weather conditions are expected behind this
boundary on Wednesday, as minimum relative humidities fall below 15%
over the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains. An even
stronger front looks to arrive on Friday, where the Storm Prediction
Center has placed portions of the Rio Grande Plains and Edwards
Plateau in the Critical fire danger category. That`s EIGHT days
away, so our confidence is already increasing for yet another
impacted fire danger day next Friday. To make matters worse, the
Climate Prediction Center 6-10 and 8-14 day precip/temp outlooks are
not particularly promising either, with most of Texas in the below
normal category for precip and above normal for temperatures. Not a
great combination, considering how little rainfall we`ve seen in
recent weeks.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2025
VFR flying conditions prevail tonight through Sunday night across
most areas. However, areas of MVFR CIGs will linger over Central
Texas, including KAUS tonight into Sunday morning. Moderate to strong
northerly winds with gusts to 35 KTS will continue, though some
decrease in speeds is expected overnight into Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2025
Drier air and breezy northwesterly winds behind a cold front will
continue the need for a Red Flag Warning for critical fire weather
conditions across the western 2/3 of south central Texas. The Red
Flag Warning remains in effect until 8 PM Saturday. Gusty northwest
to north winds are likely to remain intact tonight through most of
the daytime hours on Sunday. We do expect cooler temperatures and
this will help to keep minimum humidity levels higher than what we
expect today. However, some elevated fire weather conditions are
still expected over the Rio Grande plains and nearby southern
Edwards Plateau as minimum humidity levels drop to near 20% and
winds remain gusty.
Fire weather concerns continue into the long term period with no
wetting rains in sight and continued warm and dry conditions. Two
separate frontal boundaries will move through, one on Wednesday, and
another on Friday that are expected to bring critical fire weather
conditions to portions of south central Texas. Please see the fire
weather forecast for more details.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 43 60 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 43 61 37 75 / 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 43 63 38 75 / 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 40 58 35 75 / 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 45 71 42 81 / 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 41 58 36 75 / 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 41 66 37 76 / 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 42 62 37 75 / 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 43 60 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 43 64 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 44 66 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...04
Long-Term...05
Aviation...04
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 03/09/2025 03:14:58 AM UTC
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