Probability of a White Christmas

Historical Chances for a White Christmas?

"Will we have a white Christmas?" It is one of the big questions asked every holiday season. The graphics and table below were created from historical data from NOAA'S National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). It reflects the normal chance, or probability, of a white Christmas based on data from the 1981-2010 three-decade averages. A white Christmas is defined as having 1 inch or more of snow on the ground Christmas morning. The graphics provide a general sense of the likelihood of a white Christmas over the entire country and the Midwest. They are based on the latest (1981-2010) U.S. Climate Normals from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. For a specific location in Eastern Iowa, Northwest Illinois, or extreme Northeast Missouri, refer to the table. The table is also based only on data from 1981-2010. For more information, Click HERE.

For prediction of your actual weather on Christmas Day, check out your local forecast at Weather.gov/QuadCities.

Click on the images below to enlarge.


National White Christmas Map - Based on 1981-2010 Normals	Midwest White Christmas Map - Based on 1981-2010 Normals

Illinois stations: blue text/white background - Iowa stations: black text/blue background - Missouri station: black text/white background

Values that are starred (*) have 5 or more missing years.

Station	Number of Christmas' from 1981-2010 with 1"/more of snow on the ground Christmas morning	1981-2010 Normal Probability of 1"/more of snow on the ground Christmas morning ( x / 30 )	Number of Missing Years ( x out of 30 )
Moline - QC Airport	13	43	0
Freeport	15	53	2
Geneseo	13	43	3
Illinois City	10*	33*	5*
Kewanee	8*	27*	7*
La Harpe	13	40	1
Morrison	16	53	0
Mount Carroll	17	57	0
Walnut	6*	20*	10*
Cedar Rapids - Marion	14	47	0
Dubuque	14	47	1
Bellevue	18	60	1
Burlington	8*	27*	7*
Clinton	15	50	1
Cascade	15	50	3
Columbus Junction	9	30	3
Fairfield	9	30	4
Iowa City	12	40	2
Keokuk	5*	17*	8*
Keosauqua	4*	13*	11*
Muscatine	12*	40*	5*
Washington	8	27	3
Williamsburg	11*	37*	6*
Memphis, Missouri	4*	13*	10*