Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are virtually certain (100% confidence) 
throughout the first half of the 06Z TAF package, with all model
guidance outlining no restrictions prior to 25/20Z. Combination
of HREF/GLAMP guidance continues to outline SHRA entering the 
western airspace between 16Z-18Z; however, low-level moisture 
remains fairly dry through this timeframe. At this time, 
trending closer to GLAMP guidance as first raindrops will likely
begin at airfields in this timeframe; however, restrictions 
based on both ceilings and visibilities seem most likely after 
25/20Z at BFD/JST. Low-level dry air in model soundings do 
outline that rain will initially struggle to get further west 
with a slower progression with rain area wide by 25/23Z. Some 
periods without rain appear possible based on newest HREF 
guidance; however, lower confidence (~20-30%) on these breaks in
precipitation at this time so have not outlined any breaks in 
the TAF package as of right now.

HREF probabilities for IFR ceilings increase across the western
airspace ~25/22Z and continue through the end of the 06Z TAF 
package. Highest confidence in IFR remains across the northern 
and western airfields (BFD/JST/IPT/UNV) along with where low- 
level moisture is highest in recent model guidance. Recent GLAMP
guidance does also indicate IFR ceilings prevailing at AOO 
~26/04Z and MDT/LNS ~26/05Z; however, given slightly less 
favorable moisture in the lowest levels in model RH cross- 
sections have kept mentions of IFR out of these TAFs, outside of
AOO where ~30% confidence does warrant a PROB30 group into the 
end of the 06Z TAF package.

Outlook... 

Sat...Sub-VFR likely with rain showers and possibly a t-storm.
Wind gusts 20-25kt from 280-310 degrees behind the front 
Saturday night.

Sun-Mon...VFR/No sig wx expected. 

Tue...Showers and possibly a few t-storms with sub-VFR probable
into Tuesday night.

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