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Powerful Storm in the Western U.S.; Heavy Rain and Flooding Threat Across the Central Gulf Coast

A powerful storm system will continue to bring heavy mountain snow, rain, and high winds to the Pacific Northwest and northern California through midweek. Heavy rain and flash flooding potential exists across the central Gulf Coast over the next few days, including the Florida Panhandle. A Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall is in effect Tuesday. Read More >

Overview

By: Dave Ondrejik (WCM), John La Corte (Senior Forecaster),Greg DeVoir (Senior Forecaster), Robert Radzanowski (Forecaster), Aaron Tyburski (Forecaster) Peter Jung (SSH), Ron Holmes (ITO), Les Thario (ESA), and Victor Cruz (HMT)

The combination of a stalled surface front, an upper trough over the Midwest, and an anomalous upper ridge over the western North Atlantic caused heavy rains and serious flooding over portions of Central Pennsylvania beginning on Tuesday 27 June, and continuing into the end of the week.

On Friday 23 June, a weak surface cold front moved through Pennsylvania accompanied by scattered convection. Parts of the central mountains and Laurel Highlands received more than an inch of rain, with most locations seeing a quarter to a half inch. The front then stalled just south of the region providing a focus for heavy convective rains that at first affected only far southeastern parts of the state, then gradually moved northward over the weekend resulting in more widespread heavy rains Sunday through Tuesday. Over a period of several days, beginning during the weekend, most locations in central Pennsylvania received more than 3 inches of rain (see graphics below), with some eastern locations seeing more than a foot of rain from the entire event (Holtwood Dam had 13.01 inches). See Table 1 for an unofficial list of the rain totals for the several day period of heavy rain, and the images below for plots/contours of precipitation reports and estimates.

Ensemble models, as well as NCEP operational runs of the GFS and NAM models, began zeroing in on the heavy rain potential days in advance. As early as the morning of 22 June, MREF forecasts began portraying the development of an anomalous ridge over the western Atlantic, and a trough over the Midwest which was forecast to become quasi- stationary throughout the weekend and continue into at least Tuesday of the following week. This resulted in the development of a strong low level jet on the order of 40 to 50kt out of the south-southeast (3-5 standard deviations above normal) along with a plume of deep tropical moisture as evidenced by precipitable water forecasts near or above 2 inches (2-3 standard deviations above normal) which persisted for several days.

The last of the widespread heavy rain moved up and through the region during the day Tuesday before moving east of the region quicker than expected early Wednesday morning. Rainfall of between about 2 and 6 inches fell from Franklin County east and north up through Sullivan County in the northeast. This final slug of rain resulted in widespread county and flash flooding, as well as river flooding over much of the lower Susquehanna Valley.

Image Image Image
MultiSensor Precipitation Estimate plot for the week. CoOperative Observer Precipitation Totals for the week. Point Plot of Observed Rainfall for the week, automatic and manual gages.
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