October 21, 2016 Flooding Event

Flooding

River Data (RFC)

River gauges near areas of excessive flooding recorded water levels that came within a few feet of record highs.	Bald Eagle Creek Gauge Height Courtesy: waterdata.usgs.gov	Loyalsock Creek Gauge Height Courtesy: waterdata.usgs.gov	Towanda Creek Gauge Height Courtesy: waterdata.usgs.gov

Social Media

Twitter post captures the hours following the early AM flooding.

Radar/Satellite

10/20/2016 3:10 PM EDT - 10/21/2016 8:10 PM EDT: NEXRAD MOSAIC Composite Reflectivity Courtesy: SPC Mesoanalysis Archive	10/21/2016 10 AM - 4:45 PM EDT: GOES East Visible Band (day before major flooding) Courtesy: SPC Mesoanalysis Archive

Radar & Reports/Warnings (GR2Analyst)

10/21/2016 2:30 AM EDT: First Flood Report issued in Lycoming county. Reports of evacuation in Warnersville and trapped residents being rescued.	10/21/2016 4:30 AM EDT: Flash Flood Warning issued by NWS CTP expiring at 7:30 AM EDT	10/21/2016 6AM EDT: Another flash flood report from Lycoming County issued. Reports of numerous road closures and high water across Eldred, Cascade, Lewis, Gamble, Hepburn, and Loyalsock Townships.

Storm Reports

Public Information Statement (PNS) Issued at 9:54 AM EDT Oct. 21, 2016

740 

NOUS41 KCTP 211354

PNSCTP

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-

063>066-220154-

Public Information Statement

National Weather Service State College PA

954 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

...24 Hour Rainfall Reports 1.50 inches or greater...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider             

...Blair County...

Tyrone                       3.90 in   0734 AM 10/21   COOP                 

Tyrone                       3.26 in   0937 AM 10/21   CWOP                 

...Cambria County...

3 S Coalport                 2.11 in   0931 AM 10/21   CWOP                 

Belmont                      1.50 in   0800 AM 10/21   COCORAHS             

...Cameron County...

2 ESE Stevenson Dam          2.10 in   0900 AM 10/21   COOP                 

1 ESE Emporium               1.73 in   0916 AM 10/21   CWOP                 

...Centre County...

2 W Park Forest              7.20 in   0943 AM 10/21   CWOP                 

2 SE Unionville              7.11 in   0933 AM 10/21   CWOP                 

3 WNW Park Forest            6.75 in   0934 AM 10/21   CWOP                 

1 WSW Bellefonte             6.72 in   0721 AM 10/21   COCORAHS             

2 SW Beech Creek             5.68 in   0931 AM 10/21   HADS                 

Park Forest                  5.24 in   0936 AM 10/21   CWOP                 

2 ESE Port Matilda           5.01 in   0938 AM 10/21   CWOP                 

2 E Port Matilda             5.01 in   0943 AM 10/21   CWOP                 

State College 2.6 NW         4.91 in   0700 AM 10/21   COCORAHS             

2 E Port Matilda             4.80 in   0700 AM 10/21   COCORAHS

Stormstown                   4.43 in   0900 AM 10/21   SPOTTER             

1 W Zion                     2.53 in   0800 AM 10/21   COCORAHS             

Clarence                     1.76 in   0600 AM 10/21   COOP                 

State College                1.70 in   0945 AM 10/21   CWOP                 

3 ENE State College          1.69 in   0943 AM 10/21   CWOP                 

2 S Philipsburg              1.67 in   0800 AM 10/21   COOP                 

State College                1.54 in   0800 AM 10/21   COOP                 

...Clearfield County...

Piper                        4.00 in   0730 AM 10/21   COOP                 

Kennedy Preserve             3.05 in   0908 AM 10/21   RAWS                 

1 N Dubois                   3.00 in   0935 AM 10/21   CWOP                 

Clearfield Airport           2.23 in   0754 AM 10/21   ASOS                 

...Clinton County...

1 NW Mill Hall               5.34 in   0932 AM 10/21   CWOP                 

5 S Renovo                   3.70 in   0730 AM 10/21   COOP                 

Lock Haven                   3.22 in   0700 AM 10/21   COOP                 

Coffin Rock                  3.08 in   0916 AM 10/21   RAWS                 

1 E Kettle Creek State Park  2.73 in   0900 AM 10/21   HADS                 

...Elk County...

E. Branch Clarion Lake       2.38 in   0915 AM 10/21   GOES                 

3 NW Saint Marys             2.21 in   0934 AM 10/21   CWOP                 

Glen Hazel                   1.85 in   0700 AM 10/21   COOP                 

1 SE Saint Marys             1.78 in   0700 AM 10/21   COCORAHS             

...Lycoming County...

1 NNE Williamsport           4.64 in   0700 AM 10/21   COCORAHS             

Loyalsockville               3.63 in   0946 AM 10/21   HADS                 

Slate Run                    3.60 in   0830 AM 10/21   COOP                 

Cedar Run                    2.91 in   0915 AM 10/21   HADS                 

2 SSE English Center         2.69 in   0940 AM 10/21   CWOP                 

Duboistown                   1.90 in   0944 AM 10/21   CWOP                 

...McKean County...

2 ENE Eldred                 2.83 in   0930 AM 10/21   GOES                 

2 SSE Kinzua Bridge State Pa 2.39 in   0910 AM 10/21   CWOP                 

Port Allegany                2.15 in   0845 AM 10/21   HADS                 

4 W Bradford                 1.90 in   0800 AM 10/21   COOP                 

1 SSE Rew                    1.83 in   0939 AM 10/21   CWOP                 

Bradford Airport             1.62 in   0753 AM 10/21   ASOS                 

...Potter County...

5 SSW Galeton                3.02 in   0944 AM 10/21   CWOP                 

Coudersport 7se              2.58 in   0700 AM 10/21   COOP                 

1 N Shinglehouse             2.49 in   0845 AM 10/21   GOES                 

Cherry Springs               2.40 in   0800 AM 10/21   COOP                 

2 ENE Sizerville             2.40 in   0800 AM 10/21   HADS                 

3 ESE Coudersport            2.39 in   0942 AM 10/21   CWOP                 

Coudersport 1 SW             2.17 in   0700 AM 10/21   COOP                 

1 NE Oswayo                  1.80 in   0800 AM 10/21   COOP                 

2 NNE Roulette               1.75 in   0700 AM 10/21   COCORAHS             

5 SE Coudersport             1.63 in   1100 PM 10/20   COCORAHS             

...Somerset County...

Seven Springs                1.61 in   0939 AM 10/21   CWOP                 

...Tioga County...

Old Mountain                 2.76 in   0916 AM 10/21   RAWS                 

Mansfield                    2.53 in   0931 AM 10/21   GOES                 

Covington 2wsw               2.50 in   0800 AM 10/21   COOP                 

3 SW Osceola                 2.40 in   0700 AM 10/21   COOP                 

Cowanesque Dam               2.07 in   0700 AM 10/21   COOP                 

Wellsboro 4 SW               2.06 in   0700 AM 10/21   COOP                 

Cowanesque Dam               2.05 in   0900 AM 10/21   COOP                 

Tioga                        1.58 in   0700 AM 10/21   COOP                 

Crooked Creek                1.54 in   0900 AM 10/21   COOP                 

...Warren County...

Warren                       1.69 in   0700 AM 10/21   COOP                 

&&

Storm Details

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions (MPDs) Issued by WPC

MPD #748	MPD #749	MPD #750

Environment

Surface analysis timeline leading into flooding event.

10/20/2016 12:17 PM EDT: Early afternoon prior to the flooding event. Warm moist air moving along the Southerly warm front from the Atlantic coast would provide the necessary moisture transport to Central PA. Courtesy: WPC	10/20/2016 9:18 PM EDT: Evening before event. As the warm front continued its Southerly track, the corresponding stationary front began its NE-SW extension across central PA. The slow moving nature of this front would provide a consistent lift for the transported moisture. Courtesy: WPC	10/21/2016 2 AM EDT: Beginning of event. The stationary front was situated directly in position for cloud formation and heavy precipitation in Central PA. Courtesy: WPC

PWATs and Moisture Transport

10/20/2016 11 PM EDT: Night prior to event. The available precipitable water (PWATs) in the mid-lower atmosphere was already in favor for the region of impact. Values of 1.5 inches were present in Central and Northern Central PA. Courtesy: SPC Mesoanalysis Archive	10/21/2016 6 AM EDT: Tail end of event. Most precipitation and flooding had already occurred by this point, yet PWATs remained in the 1.4 inch range in the affected area. Courtesy: SPC Mesoanalysis Archive	10/21/2016 1 AM EDT: Peak values of Southerly moisture transport were held within the closed low with its Eastern region centered over Central PA. Closed low systems like this typically coincide with heavy precipitation. Courtesy: SPC Mesoanalysis Archive

300mb Height and Upper Level Jet

10/20 11 PM EDT to 10/21 7 AM EDT: Divergence associated with lifting was consistently present in the Central PA region. Courtesy: SPC Mesoanalysis Archive