Winter Precipitation Outlook - Developing El Nino Conditions thru the Winter

While currently in a Neutral ENSO environment over the Northern Hemisphere, El Nino conditions are expected to develop and strengthen slightly through the winter. What does this mean for Colorado & the high plains region? It means the probability for higher than average precipitation is expected to increase from November through April.

Although the probability outlook does not represent the magnitude of actual precipitation amounts, it does indicate that a more active and unsettled winter pattern is likely to develop through the winter over the southern United States along with the southern & Central Rockies.

Statistically, northeast Colorado receives higher than average precipitation for the winter season during El Nino conditions as deep upslope conditions develop from organized storm systems which track into eastern Colorado & central US plains from the 4-Corner's region of Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and Colorado. Also during El Nino environments, the northern and central mountains receive near to even slightly below average precipitation due to drier and weaker northwest flow aloft. Denver's snowiest month is March.