Probabilistic Winter Weather Page

Probabilistic Snowfall Forecasts
AL Probabilistic Snowfall Forecasts
Ice Accumulation Forecasts
AL Ice Accumulation Forecasts
Winter Storm Outlook and Winter Storm Severity Index
Snow and Ice Observations
Medium/Long Range Forecast

Quick Page Navigation

Jump to:

Snow Amount Potential Graphics
Snow Amount Exceedance Graphics
Snowfall Totals by Location

Switch Office

Snow Amount Potential Experimental - Leave feedback Click here for more information on these products Click here for the NWS Probabilistic Precipitation Portal
Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast What's this?	High End Amount 1 in 10 Chance (10%) of Higher Snowfall What's this?
	Low End Amount 9 in 10 Chance (90%) of Higher Snowfall What's this?
Low End Amount – 9 in 10 Chance (90%) of Higher Snowfall This map depicts a reasonable lower-end snowfall amount for the time period shown on the graphic, based on many computer model simulations of possible snowfall totals. This lower amount is an unlikely scenario with a 9 in 10, or 90% chance that more snow will fall, and only a 1 in 10, or 10% chance that less snow will fall. This number can help serve as a lower-end scenario for planning purposes. Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast This map is the official NWS snowfall forecast in inches during the time period shown on the graphic. This snowfall amount is determined by NWS forecasters to be the most likely outcome based on evaluation of data from computer models, satellite, radar, and other observations. High End Amount – Only a 1 in 10 Chance (10%) of Higher Snowfall This map depicts a reasonable upper-end snowfall amount for the time period shown on the graphic, based on many computer model simulations of possible snowfall totals. This higher amount is an unlikely scenario, with only a 1 in 10, or 10% chance that more snow will fall, and a 9 in 10, or 90% chance that less snow will fall. This number can help serve as an upper-end scenario for planning purposes.

The purpose of these experimental probabilistic snowfall products is to provide customers and partners a range of snowfall possibilities, in complement to existing NWS deterministic snowfall graphics, to better communicate forecast uncertainties during winter weather events. For more information visit this project's Product/Service Description Document, and please provide us your feedback here.

Back to top

Percent Chance That Snow Amounts Will Be Greater Than...

Experimental - Leave feedback

Click here for more information on these products

What's this?

Hover over thumbnails below to view larger image.

>=0.1"	>=1"	>=2"	>=4"	>=6"	>=8"	>=12"	>=18"

Back to top

Snowfall Totals by Location

Experimental - Leave feedback

Click here for more information on these products

What's this?

Location	Low-End Amount	Expected Amount	High-End Amount	Chance of Seeing More Than
Location	Low-End Amount	Expected Amount	High-End Amount

Back to top

Snow Amount Potential Experimental - Leave feedback Click here for more information on these products Click here for the NWS Probabilistic Precipitation Portal
Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast What's this?	High End Amount 1 in 10 Chance (10%) of Higher Snowfall What's this?
	Low End Amount 9 in 10 Chance (90%) of Higher Snowfall What's this?
Low End Amount – 9 in 10 Chance (90%) of Higher Snowfall This map depicts a reasonable lower-end snowfall amount for the time period shown on the graphic, based on many computer model simulations of possible snowfall totals. This lower amount is an unlikely scenario with a 9 in 10, or 90% chance that more snow will fall, and only a 1 in 10, or 10% chance that less snow will fall. This number can help serve as a lower-end scenario for planning purposes. Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast This map is the official NWS snowfall forecast in inches during the time period shown on the graphic. This snowfall amount is determined by NWS forecasters to be the most likely outcome based on evaluation of data from computer models, satellite, radar, and other observations. High End Amount – Only a 1 in 10 Chance (10%) of Higher Snowfall This map depicts a reasonable upper-end snowfall amount for the time period shown on the graphic, based on many computer model simulations of possible snowfall totals. This higher amount is an unlikely scenario, with only a 1 in 10, or 10% chance that more snow will fall, and a 9 in 10, or 90% chance that less snow will fall. This number can help serve as an upper-end scenario for planning purposes.

The purpose of these experimental probabilistic snowfall products is to provide customers and partners a range of snowfall possibilities, in complement to existing NWS deterministic snowfall graphics, to better communicate forecast uncertainties during winter weather events. For more information visit this project's Product/Service Description Document, and please provide us your feedback here.

Back to top

Percent Chance That Snow Amounts Will Be Greater Than...

Experimental - Leave feedback

Click here for more information on these products

What's this?

Hover over thumbnails below to view larger image.

>=0.1"	>=1"	>=2"	>=4"	>=6"	>=8"	>=12"	>=18"

Back to top

Ice Accumulation Potential
Expected Ice Accumulation - Official NWS Forecast This is the elevated flat surface ice accumulation. It is not radial/line ice. Radial/line ice is typically 39% of the elevated flat surface ice. For more information on this, see this module.
What's this?
Most Likely Ice Accumulation Represents our official ice forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The ice accumulation amounts are provided in ranges.

Ice Accumulation Potential

Expected Ice Accumulation - Official NWS Forecast

This is the elevated flat surface ice accumulation. It is not radial/line ice. Radial/line ice is typically 39% of the elevated flat surface ice. For more information on this, see this module.

What's this?

Ice Accumulation Potential
Expected Ice Accumulation - Official NWS Forecast This is the elevated flat surface ice accumulation. It is not radial/line ice. Radial/line ice is typically 39% of the elevated flat surface ice. For more information on this, see this module.
What's this?
Most Likely Ice Accumulation Represents our official ice forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The ice accumulation amounts are provided in ranges.

Ice Accumulation Potential

Expected Ice Accumulation - Official NWS Forecast

This is the elevated flat surface ice accumulation. It is not radial/line ice. Radial/line ice is typically 39% of the elevated flat surface ice. For more information on this, see this module.

What's this?

Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI)	Winter Storm Outlook (WSO)

National Snow Reports	National Snowfall Analysis


Local Snow Reports

Days 4-7 Winter Weather Outlook

Day 4 Winter Weather Outlook	Day 5 Winter Weather Outlook


Day 6 Winter Weather Outlook	Day 7 Winter Weather Outlook

Click here for an interactive map

CPC Week-2 Experimental Heavy Snow Risk



CPC Temperature & Precipitation Maps

Days 6-10
Temperature	Precipitation



Days 8-14
TEMPERATURE	PRECIPITATION



Week 3-4
TEMPERATURE	PRECIPITATION