667
FXAK68 PAFC 021432
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
532 AM AKST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...

Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for as the next front
approaches Southcentral Alaska. Here are the Advisories in effect:
* Northern Kenai Peninsula: Freezing rain with near-freezing
temperatures this morning. Light ice accumulation and icing on
roads.
* Anchorage, Eagle River, and Lower Matanuska Valley (including
Palmer and Wasilla): Rain/freezing rain coinciding with near-
freezing temperatures this morning, bringing the potential for
additional icing on roads.
* Along the Parks Highway from Houston north to Talkeetna: Snow
and freezing rain from this morning through early tomorrow
morning, with 2-4 inches of snow and up to 0.15 inches of ice.
* Northern Copper Valley (Richardson Highway mile markers 150 to
200) and Northern Susitna Valley (north of Talkeetna): 6-8
inches of snow from this morning through tomorrow morning.


As of 4am, precipitation, mostly in the form of rain, extending
along a front tied to a low in the Bering Sea is currently moving
north through the Kenai Peninsula. Temperatures remain below
freezing for many areas north of the current extend of
precipitation. With several observations noting surface
temperatures below freezing in the Soldotna, Kenai, Sterling, and
other portions of the northern Kenai Peninsula, have issued
another winter weather advisory for these locations due to the
threat of freezing rain. Precipitation will quickly shift through
these areas this morning, but morning commute conditions may be
slick.

Otherwise the forecast remains on track as that front is expected
to progress north into the remainder of the the Southcentral
Mainland. Without much wind or warm air advection, expect
temperatures to remain close to freezing This will be a problem
for the Anchorage area up to the Mat-Su Valleys as this rain will
be falling in areas where temperatures are near or below freezing,
and onto already-icy side and neighborhood streets. For Susitna
Valley in particular, localized colder conditions near Willow will
likely lead to higher ice accumulations, especially with heavier
precipitation in that area. Further north, upslope flow onto the
southern face of the Alaska Range will lead to higher snow
accumulations near Broad and Isabel Passes.

Another shortwave trough is expected to lift north through the
Gulf of Alaska Wednesday morning, bringing another round of
precipitation to Kodiak Island and coastal locations along the
Gulf of Alaska. Precipitation will be limited inland, but can`t
completely rule out additional precip at this time. Should any
additional precip fall in the `interior` of Southcentral, freezing
rain may once again be a threat .

Thursday will mark the transition day for Southcentral AK as we
move from this warm pattern featuring repeat freezing rain threats
to a much colder, drier pattern. Several model solutions are
generating light precipitation across a wide swatch of
Southcentral as a trough dropping down from the Arctic interacts
with the moisture in place from the pre-existing frontal zone.
Confidence is admittedly low for Thursday precip, but conditions
may align for a shot of snow for many areas before the intrusion
of significantly colder, drier air.

-Brown/Chen

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A strong low pressure system has entered the southern Bering sea,
amplifying the pattern across most of the region. This will
greatly enhance the pressure gradient and bring widespread Gale
and Storm force winds to the Bering Sea and adjacent coasts.
Return of widespread precipitation across the Eastern Bering,
Alaska Peninsula, Eastern and Central Aleutians, and the Southwest
coast.

The focus for the weather through tonight is for the Kuskokwim
region where this storm pumps in warm air aloft over the cold
surface air. This is leading to the long-duration freezing rain
event for Bethel and along the Kuskokwim River into Wednesday
morning. Ice accumulations of one-half to three- quarters of an
inch for this time period, resulting in an Ice Storm Warning
currently in effect through Wednesday morning. To the north and
west of the Kuskokwim River in the Delta region, the arctic front
has stall out and created a significant thermal boundary. This is
expected to create Blizzard conditions for Nunivak and Nelson
Islands tomorrow. This change from freezing rain to snow/blowing
snow will likely be a sharp boundary, but Nunivak and Nelson
Islands are expected to see the worst of the blizzard conditions.

Additionally, the northeasterly winds in the Central Bering are
creating strong winds up to 80 mph across the Pribilof Islands.
As such, a High Wind Warning has been issued for the Pribilofs
through early this afternoon. By Wednesday, the low center will
still be in the Unalaska area, but will have weakened enough to
bring marine winds to Gale force and allow the temperatures over
the Kuskokwim region to fall below freezing at all levels of the
atmosphere which will end the freezing rain threat. The Bristol
Bay region will be slower to cool off and may keep precipitation
type as rain until Thursday, especially for coastal areas. After
Thursday, this the entire region will drastically cool down and
get quite cold for the weekend.

-CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Friday through Monday)...

An initial trough should be lifting into Southcentral on Friday
with light to moderate rain pushing into the coastal mountains
and a chance for a rain/snow mix for interior locations of the
Copper Basin, Anchorage and the MatSu Valley. On a slightly more
optimistic note, the time period from Friday into the weekend may
bring an end to the unseasonably warmer temperatures Southcentral
and Southwest Alaska have been experiencing as of late. A
previously active pattern trough over the Aleutians is forecast to
become closed off, allowing an arctic trough over the Seward
Peninsula to dive southward into the southwest coast. Much cooler
temperatures over Canada, previously shunted east of the ALCAN
border will spill into interior Alaska Friday into early next
week. Ensemble guidance and deterministic models all show a broad
trough overspreading the Gulf of Alaska Saturday into Sunday, with
a closed surface low developing somewhere east of the Kenai
Peninsula, south of Prince William Sound. This will open the door
for various scenarios to play out, conditional on the exact
placement of the closed low. A low further east may allow colder
temperatures to spread across the region region more quickly while
a low further north might favor increasing snow chances for much
of Southcentral. Despite the uncertainties, a pattern change
appears likely during the long term forecast period with a
significant cool down in the not too distance future.

-BL

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...Freezing rain will plague the Anchorage area this morning
as a front lifts through. Temperatures will gradually rise above
freezing this morning after 18z, around the same time
precipitation is expected to diminish. LLWS will be an issue for
much of the day as well until SE winds out of the Turnagain Arm
move in this afternoon or evening, of which there`s some
uncertainty with the timing.

Another wave may return precip back to the terminal Wednesday
morning, but confidence is low given large model uncertainty.
Should precip occur, temps are likely warm enough for all snow,
but can`t rule out some light snow or freezing rain.

&&


$$

237
FXAK67 PAJK 021752
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
852 AM AKST Tue Dec 2 2025

.UPDATE...Update to aviation section to include 18z TAF
issuance...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Another front arrives late Tuesday into Tuesday night, bringing
predominantly rain, some increased wind, and continued warmer-
than- normal temperatures into midweek.

- Late week into next weekend, long range models are still
hinting at a weather pattern that has been known to produce
heavy snow. High uncertainty at this time but worth watching
closely.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday night/...SW onshore flow is
dominate this morning across the area though winds in general are
15 kt or less for the most part. The onshore flow from the gulf
combined with the recent precipitation, and the long nights this
time of year are creating widespread low clouds with some fog and
drizzle this morning. Yakutat, Gustavus, Petersburg, and Sitka
have been the most impacted with ceilings down to 200 ft and vis
below a mile at times overnight. Petersburg in particular, had had
vis down to a quarter mile which prompted a dense fog advisory
until 9 am for them.

Short range forecast features a transition from SW flow and soupy
conditions to more southerly winds with increasing wind speeds
and precip as a new front moves in from the W later today into
tonight. The transition to southerly will occur during the day,
but winds will stay somewhat low (15 kt or less) across the
panhandle until starting to increase this evening. This combined
with the low sun angle this time of year may cause the low clouds
and fog to linger into the afternoon and maybe early evening
before improving as winds start increasing and heavier precip
moves in. So have kept patchy fog for many inner channels areas
through the afternoon hours today.

As for the front, the increased winds and rain will be starting
to show up along the outer coast as early as late this afternoon
before spreading inland through the evening. The period of max
winds and rain for the panhandle will be from around late evening
to early Wednesday morning. Neither the winds or the precip will
be exceptionally strong with this front. Winds will likely max out
around 25 kt with most of that being out in the gulf waters.
Meanwhile the precip (mostly falling as rain with snow levels
around 2500 to 3000 ft) will total around 0.25 to 0.75 inches
through midday Wednesday. White Pass will likely see snow, but
with not much moisture expected to make it up that way snow
amounts will likely only be around 1 to 2 inches over any given 12
hour period.

.LONG TERM.../through this weekend/...The upcoming week is
looking like another cloudy and rainy week. There will be lulls
between the frontal passages, with precipitation chances mainly
limited to western facing mountains, but the overall trend in the
long term forecast is cloudy and rainy this week. But late this
week into next weekend, ensembles are hinting at a weather pattern
that has been known to produce heavy snow.

Friday into the weekend, the overall weather pattern looks to
change. Ensembles are hinting at a upper air low pressure
descending south out of central Alaska. Run to run ensembles have
increasingly placed this low to the west of Anchorage, but cluster
analysis has this low as far east as Prince William Sound, around
a 40% or less chance of occurrence. What this translates into
sensible weather for the panhandle is how deep will the cold pool
in Canada get. The further east the low center is, the more the
cold pool in Canada will be developed, and the further south the
southwesterly flow will be. The stronger the cold pool in Canada
is, the further south the associated arctic boundary will be,
which will dictate what part of the panhandle will get the most
snow. At this point, guidance is backing off on the low placement
to west of Anchorage as the more likely scenario, which would
bring warmer temperatures further north, keeping the arctic
boundary near the northern panhandle.

Confidence is low for placement of heaviest snow, with confidence
intervals for the northern half of the panhandle being between
all rain with little to no snow accumulation to nearly 12 inches
of snow in 24 hours.

Furthermore, there is evidence that if this upcoming weekend
system does not generate substantial snowfall for the panhandle,
early to mid next week is shaping up to keep this pattern going,
which would result in multiple rounds of snow. These upcoming
systems will be carefully watched over the following days.

Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Widespread lowered conditions continue to be prevalent
through Tuesday morning as fog and low CIGs AoB 1000ft stick
around preceding a front moving into the panhandle Tuesday
evening. Many TAF sites are currently seeing MVFR to IFR
conditions with Petersburg and Ketchikan holding onto LIFR
conditions with VIS AoB 2SM and calm winds. Conditions are
expected to remain lowered through the day with little improvement
through the 24 hour period, as light winds and low sun angle
helps to reinforce the lowered cloud layers. As the front reaches
the outer coast of the panhandle Tuesday afternoon, winds are
expected to increase to around 10 kts with potential for 20 kt
gusts and moderate rainfall rates. Lowest CIG layers may attempt
to rise as the higher cloud deck associated with the front moves
in, though MVFR conditions or lower are still expected to prevail
through the period. Near 2000-2200 local time Tuesday night LLWS
threats begin along the coast from southeast winds 30 to 40 knots
at 2500ft.

&&

.MARINE...
Gulf Waters: Incoming front is already starting to switch wind
directions across the gulf as winds at buoy 46085 have already
turned to the SE while the buoys closer to shore are starting to
turn SW this morning. Expect those winds to continue to turn to
the SE with an increase in speeds to around 25 kt by this
afternoon and evening from W to E with winds near the coast
staying near 25 kt through the night. Winds are then expected to
switch to the S and then SW at 20 kt again for Wednesday in the
post front environment. Seas are rather high with 10 ft wave
heights mainly from a SW swell of 8 ft (period 14 sec). Not much
change is expected for seas heights overall with 10 ft wave
heights common. The increased winds from the front will briefly
take over wave generation duties as SW swell diminishes to 6 ft
later today. However as the wind diminish, the SW swell picks up
to 8 ft again into Wednesday before starting to slowly subside
into Wednesday night.

Inside waters: Lighter winds to 15 kt from the south will rule
the inner channels for Tuesday. These lower winds are helping form
some patchy fog in some areas with visibility down to less then a
mile at times. Fog is expected to persist through the morning and
may even last into the afternoon in some areas due to the low
winds and low sun angle. Expect winds to start increasing this
evening as a front approaches likely getting rid of most of the
fog, but heavier precip will start moving in with the wind
increase. Max winds will be around 20 to 25 kt late tonight mainly
over the southern 2/3rds of the inner channels before diminishing
into Wednesday afternoon. Seas (mainly wind wave) will build to 5
ft tonight before subsiding into Wednesday. SW swell from the
gulf will lead to higher seas in ocean entrances exposed to the SW
and W with up to 8 ft seas encountered in these areas through
Wednesday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ326.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-034-036-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...EAL

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