214
FXAK68 PAFC 291445
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
545 AM AKST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

The forecast remains largely on track with regards to a potential
mixed precipitation event across a significant portion of
Southcentral Alaska over this weekend. A shield of upper-level
clouds has begun to spread across much of the area ahead of an
approaching upper-level shortwave trough and the associated warm
front. Patchy fog that developed early in the overnight hours
across portions of the Kenai and Anchorage appears to be lingering
around underneath the upper-level cloud cover. Any lingering fog
this morning should gradually dissipate over the next several
hours as an increase in winds help mix the lower atmosphere.

Precipitation will overspread much of the outlook area from south
to north, first reaching Kodiak and the Kenai Peninsula this
morning, then spreading inland later today. A nose of warm air
will move in aloft as temperatures above freezing stream northwest
overtop of cooler temperatures in place across the Mat-Su,
Anchorage and western Kenai Peninsula right around the same time
precipitation moving in ahead of the front arrives. This will
create a favorable temperature profile for a wintry mix of sleet,
snow and freezing rain roughly along an axis from Anchor Point up
to Willow and Palmer. Winter Weather Advisories are now set to go
into effect midday Saturday for this entire corridor.

Across the Winter Weather Advisory areas, icing amounts do not
look likely to be all that significant (no more than 0.10") due to
a couple limiting factors. First off, increasing easterly flow
will increase downslope drying with time, limiting precipitation
intensity. Secondly, east to northeast winds will pick up sharply
at the surface by Saturday evening as a northeast to southwest
pressure gradient tightens ahead of the approaching frontal wave.
This will tend to increase mixing with time, allowing temperatures
to warm a few degrees above freezing across most of the Mat
Valley, Anchorage and western Kenai Peninsula from Saturday night
into early Sunday. However, there could be a few cold pockets that
linger into Sunday where winds do not materialize, such as east
Anchorage and the southern end of the Susitna Valley. This could
allow isolated areas to still see occasional periods of freezing
rain lingering into much of Sunday.

Looking more into the start of next week, the active and warm
pattern shows no signs of abating. From Sunday into Monday, a
shortwave trough and attendant surface low will move north into
the eastern Gulf as the front moves into the Gulf coast and
weakens. Models have struggled mightily to hone in on the track of
this system, though there has been a fairly distinct west shift
for the expected trajectory of this system. The consensus is that
the low will stall just south of the the Kenai Peninsula, then
possibly shift more northeast towards Prince William Sound as the
upper trough continues to lift north somewhere over the eastern
half of Southcentral. This could actually favor a period of
accumulating wet snow across the western Kenai Peninsula up into
Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley, depending on exactly where the
upper trough tracks and how much temperatures can cool back down
in the lower levels as precipitation moves back in from the west.
It is worth emphasizing, however, that this is a complex pattern
with a lot of room for more changes to how things evolve. Be sure
to monitor the forecast for updates as we continue to follow this
very active pattern into early next week.

-Brown/AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

**Key Message: A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the
Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim Valley from late tonight through
Tuesday afternoon for up to 2" of snowfall and up to 0.20" of ice
accumulation.**

A large system in the North Pacific remains south of the Aleutian
Chain with a gale force front that continues north across the
Southwest mainland. Gale force winds will continue westward
through Bristol Bay and south across the Bering Sea, diminishing
overnight into Sunday near the coastal mainland. Precipitation
from this system will lift into Bristol Bay and inland north of
Dillingham by this afternoon. The Y-K Delta is expected to remain
drier due to downsloping until early Sunday. Precipitation is then
expected to continue for most of Southwest Alaska through Monday.

For areas under the Winter Storm Watch, particularly farther
inland across the Kuskokwim Delta where surface temperatures are
lower, freezing rain will likely persist through late Monday
before transitioning back to a rain/snow mix. Ice accumulation is
expected to remain light, at two tenths of an inch, and less than
2 inches of snow through the forecast period.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Tuesday through
Friday)...

Uncertainty continues to be an issue in the long term. A North
Pacific low is projected to track into the Bering Sea with the
leading front bringing widespread precipitation and gale force to
storm force winds from the northeast direction across much of the
Bering Sea. Winds along the western periphery of the low will
become northerly as it crosses the western Aleutians.
Precipitation type is the main challenge for the mainland for the
early part of next week as cool temperatures remain at the surface
and warmer air filters across the region aloft. Although the low
weakens in the southern Bering, it is not entirely clear how long
this forecast challenge will persist through the rest of the week.
This system appears to bring a prolonged pattern, especially for
southwest Alaska with strong winds, precipitation, and warm
southerly air moving over cool northerly air. For the Gulf and
Southcentral, waves of surface lows and fronts will transit the
Gulf, but some uncertainty remains to its strength and trajectory
into the northern Gulf or eastern Gulf. At the least, expect
showers to continue for coastal areas with less clarity for the
long term weather conditions farther inland. Toward the last half
of the week though, a strong front moves into the western Bering
Sea from a Kamchatka low. Storm force gusts seem more likely along
the front but may be stunted progress as it bumps into a narrow
area of high pressure in the central Aleutians and Bering Sea. An
upper level blocking pattern seems possible with high pressure to
the north and areas of low pressure with embedded disturbances
transiting south and along the Aleutians. Breezy gap winds across
Southcentral will be possible for the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with ceilings above 5000 ft and light
northerly winds will persist through the TAF period. Precipitation
chances increase this afternoon with the arrival of another
frontal system. A mix of freezing rain and snow is possible
initially, with ceilings and visibility dropping to MVFR.
Temperatures gradually increase through the evening and overnight,
so lingering precipitation eventually turns over to all rain. A
light glaze to a tenth of an inch of ice is possible. Ceilings and
visibility improve back to VFR after midnight with diminishing
precipitation. Another round of light precipitation is possible on
Sunday, with more uncertain timing. This is expected to fall as a
mix of rain and snow with minimal chances for freezing rain.
Ceilings and visibility potentially drop back to MVFR during
heavier precipitation, especially if snow.

Quesada

&&


$$

059
FXAK67 PAJK 300014
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
314 PM AKST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Relatively benign winds and partly cloudy skies continue until
a gale force system arrives overnight Saturday into Sunday.

- Widespread precipitation and strong winds Sunday, with
potential for accumulating snowfall in the northern panhandle.
A winter weather advisory has been issued for the Klondike Highway.

- Another system arrives Tuesday night bringing predominantly rain
and warming temperatures into midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Monday/...
Calm conditions with increasing clouds over the region for most of
tonight. Daytime temps failed to climb today with highs only in
the upper 20s to lower 30s, so starting off the forecast cooler
than previously forecasted. With the cloud deck moving in, temps
won`t drop all too much through the night. Late tonight as a gale
force front approaches, precip will begin to push into the
panhandle, with rain for the communizes along the gulf coast and
a rain/snow mix or snow further inland.

The gale force front begins to move over the panhandle into
Sunday morning, spreading moderate to heavy precipitation across
the panhandle by the afternoon and through tomorrow night. This
front will also bring some increased winds to inland areas of 15
to 20 kt as the front moves through, alongside some warm air
advecting into the area. As the front moves through, surface
warming will begin from the outer coastline and moving inwards
during the afternoon and into the late evening, changing the
precipitation type from snow to a wintry mix becoming rain across
the panhandle. The outer coastline will start off as rain due to
the warmer conditions already being experienced, however areas
further from the Gulf coast will see some cooler and drier
conditions Sunday morning soon being overrun by the warm front
moving through from SW to NE. The southern panhandle will begin to
see the rain as soon as the precipitation starts, while Icy
Strait Corridor northwards will see a mix in the morning becoming
rain by the afternoon as temperatures warm up and snow levels
rise.

Haines and Skagway will see wet snow through the afternoon, with
between 1 and 3 inches of snow being expected in 24 hours,
depending on how quickly the warm air moves into the area and
restricts snow accumulation and begins the transition to rain. The
Haines and Klondike Highways will see snow throughout the day,
becoming a mix overnight as warmer temperatures move in into
Monday, with the Klondike holding onto higher snow chances a bit
longer than the Haines Highway. The Haines Highway is expecting a
bit less QPF during this event, and will only see around 2 to 3
inches of snow accumulation in 24 hours. The Klondike Highway
however will see between 5 and 7 inches in 24 hours, seeing a
rather consistent 0.75 to 1.25 inches every 3 hours from the late
morning through tomorrow night, resulting in a Winter Weather
Advisory being sent out for 4 inches in 12 hours within this
longer timeframe. The rest of the panhandle will see between 1 and
2 inches of precipitation in 24 hours, with between 2 and 3
inches for Yakutat and the NE outer coastline. Parts of Icy Strait
Corridor may see some snow accumulation in the morning, but the
warming temperatures into midday to the low 40s and higher Tw
values will lessen the accumulation even if the snow or wintry mix
lasts into the afternoon.


.LONG TERM...
The upcoming week will start off rather wet as onshore
flow largely continues through Monday night from another wave of
precipitation moving into the panhandle following closely behind the
remnants of the frontal system from Sunday. Precipitation chances
will then begin to diminish across the panhandle Monday night into
Tuesday morning. This secondary wave of precipitation on Monday will
be less substantial than that of the previous frontal system. The
only areas expecting to see any substantial snow with this will be
the upper elevations of the Klondike Highway. However even there a
transition to a slushy mix and then cold rain is expected by late
Monday. Snow levels will gradually rise through midweek as models
continue to suggest a low level ridge will form over the panhandle
along with mid level ridging over the gulf. This combination will
allow for a brief lull over the panhandle Tuesday, primarily for
the southern panhandle, as the ridging will still support onshore
moist flow into the northern panhandle. Any precipitation for that
period should however remain light due to sinking air aloft.

The next front moving through will begin to impact the NE Gulf Coast
and Yakutat areas into Tuesday night, before moving eastward across
the panhandle. This front will move across the panhandle through
Wednesday, bringing another round of rain and continued warmer
temperatures to the panhandle. Highs for the northern half of the
panhandle will be in the mid to high 40s, while the southern
panhandle will see temperatures around 50 degrees, which is close to
some record temperatures for this time of year if these warmer
temperatures pan out. In terms of precipitation, the majority of the
panhandle will see 850 mb temperatures warming to around 0 degrees
C, and snow levels between 3000 and 6000 ft alongside the warmer
temperatures and wet bulbs at the surface, bringing light to
moderate rain across the area and snow mixing in only at higher
elevations. The only area not expecting rain will be the Klondike
Highway, with snow levels remaining just around 3000 ft allowing for
wetter snow to continue, but with little to no accumulation expected
as of this forecast. Overall the NE Gulf coastline will see between
1 and 2 inches of rain in 24 hours from this system Tuesday night
into Wednesday, and generally less than 1 inch in 24 hours for the
rest of the panhandle.

Looking out into the extended period, a cooling trend is expected as
high pressure builds over the interior and Yukon, driving snow
levels downward gradually from Thursday onwards.

&&

.AVIATION...
Widespread VFR conditions continue across the panhandle as a cloud
deck has started to return over the area. Ahead of the next front,
arriving early Sunday, clouds will continue to spread across the
panhandle becoming overcast and lowering by Sunday morning. This
front will first impact coastal areas starting late tonight. As
moderate to heavy precipitation spreads across the panhandle,
lowered ceilings and visibilities drop flying conditions into
prevailing MVFR, with times of IFR possible. Precipitation will
mainly be rain, with areas of snow or wintry mix from the Icy Strait
Corridor northward Sunday morning. Haines and Skagway are likely to
see snow continuing into late Sunday morning/early afternoon
allowing for times of reduced visibilities AoB 3SM, before
transitioning to rain. Winds will also increase with this front with
LLWS around 2000 ft returning. LLWS will first return near the
northeast coast before spreading inland affecting almost all of the
panhandle. Yakutat will be the first to see the return of wind shear
Sunday morning spreading across the panhandle into Sunday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: Gale force front moves into the Gulf tonight
through Sunday, bringing southeasterly near gales to gale force
(30 to 40 kt) winds across the majority of the Gulf. Expecting
easterly strong gales (41 to 47 kt) and gusts to storm force (48
to 54 kt) off the NE Gulf coast, particularly from Cape St. Elias
to Icy Cape, as the front moves through. Winds will diminish after
the frontal passage through tomorrow night as winds in the Gulf
switch to southerly behind the front, before becoming
southwesterly into Monday. Winds will largely remain around a
fresh to strong breeze by Monday morning, gradually diminishing
throughout the day to a moderate to fresh breeze by Monday night.
The next system moving in Tuesday will bring another increase in
the winds in the more central Gulf. Seas building from 6 to 10 ft
tonight to 15 to 20 ft by Monday afternoon, with the highest seas
expected along the northern Gulf coast. Seas begin to subside into
Monday night. Southerly to southeasterly swell becoming
southwesterly by Monday.

Inner Channels: Predominantly light winds across the inner channels
last into tonight, slowly increasing by the morning as the system
approaches. Winds across the channels will increase to a southerly
to southeasterly fresh to strong breeze (17 to 27 kt) as the front
moves through tomorrow. Clarence Strait and Stephens Passage will
see increases of a strong breeze to near gale (25 to 31 kt) as the
front passes tomorrow evening into tomorrow night. Largely a
diminishing trend in the winds tomorrow night through Monday to a
gentle to moderate breeze across the inner channels. Seas will see
increases to above 8 ft near the ocean entrances, and to between 3-5
ft seas for the majority of the inner channels tomorrow night,
subsiding through Monday after the front has moved through.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM AKST Monday for
AKZ318.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ642>644-651-652-663-664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031-034-036-053-641-661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS/Contino
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...Contino

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