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765
FXAK69 PAFG 212229
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
129 PM AKST Thu Nov 21 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Quieter conditions expected through Saturday morning as high
pressure builds across the state. Stratus and fog will linger over
the West Coast and Western Interior until drier air moving in from
the northwest clears them out. The quiet conditions are short-
lived though as another series of fronts take aim at the West
Coast this weekend, spreading significant snow across northern
Alaska early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Areas of light snow continue this afternoon, as well as a light
freezing drizzle/snow mix near Eielson. This activity is expected
to taper off as the afternoon and evening progresses.
- Dry, mild, and partly cloudy conditions expected Friday and
Saturday.
- A front moving across the Interior Sunday into Monday will bring
the next chance for significant snowfall. Snowfall amounts of 3 to
7 inches possible.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Quieter and colder conditions expected late Thursday through
the weekend, though east winds increase Saturday evening along
the coast.
- Southerly winds increase to 15 to 25 mph in the central Brooks
Range passes Sunday, accompanied by areas of blowing snow.
Visibility may be reduced to less than a mile at times.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Winter Weather Advisories for Nome, Golovin, and Eastern Norton
Sound remain in effect until 6 PM this evening for freezing
drizzle.
- Drier conditions expected tonight and Friday. Temperatures remain
well above normal, with many areas near the coast seeing high
temperatures near or above freezing through the weekend.
- The next frontal system looks to bring significant snow to the
West Coast beginning late Saturday and pushing into the Interior
on Sunday. Highest snow amounts in favored upslope areas, including
the Noatak Valley, where 6 to 10 inches are possible. Elsewhere,
snow amounts of 3 to 7 inches are possible.
- Behind the fronts, strong northerly gales develop through the
Bering Strait Sunday night through Monday night.
Strong upper level ridging over the Alaska Peninsula this
afternoon slowly drops south into the north Pacific this weekend
as a shortwave trough scoots over the northern periphery of the
ridge and an upper level low enters the western Bering Sea. The
upper level low weakens into an open wave as it moves northeast
through the weekend reaching the Bering Strait Sunday night.
At the surface, strong high pressure remains over northern Alaska.
Northwest flow aloft pushes drier air across the region,
resulting in drier and mild conditions through Saturday.
Temperatures cool a few degrees Friday. Fog and stratus will
likely linger into Friday across the West Coast and Western
Interior until the drier air scours it out. The high pressure
weakens through the weekend as a low moves northeast across the
Western Bering pushing a front across the West Coast. Precip
chances increase Saturday afternoon and evening across the Brooks
Range, Arctic Plains and West Coast as the front moves inland.
Extended Forecast Days 4-7...The extended forecast features the
attempted breakdown of the strong ridge over mainland Alaska. A
weakening upper level low over the Bering Sea weakens into an open
waves as it moves northeast, reaching the Bering Strait Sunday
night. A reinforcing shortwave trough drops southeast out of the
high Arctic phasing with the shortwave over the West Coast,
pushing southeast across the Interior Monday into Tuesday. An
accompanying surface low moves to St Lawrence Island by Sunday
afternoon, with the first of two fronts having already pushed onto
the West Coast. By Monday morning the low has weakened to 1004 mb
as it moves to southern Kotzebue Sound with the second front
moving to the West Coast. As these fronts march east across
northern Alaska, gale force winds develop through the Bering
Strait. In addition to the snow, significant precip accompanies
the fronts. Most inland areas the precip will take the form of
snow, but along the coast from the Seward Peninsula south, a mix
of precip is possible once again.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822-824.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ839-840.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-860.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&
$$
676
FXAK68 PAFC 211239
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
339 AM AKST Thu Nov 21 2024
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Saturday night)...
The dominant feature for Alaska Weather is a strong closed upper
level ridge centered along the southern Alaska Peninsula.
Anticyclonic flow and associated sinking motion extends across
the eastern Bering Sea and all of southern Alaska and the Gulf
of Alaska, leading to "bone dry" conditions. Warm (above freezing
air) aloft moved over the ridge into Southcentral yesterday. The
airmass has warmed further due to northerly downslope flow along
the east side of the ridge. A look at temperatures across
Southcentral mountain locations bears this out, with above
freezing temperatures from Hatcher Pass to the western Chugach
Mountains to the Kenai Mountains. The warmest temperatures are
over the eastern Kenai Peninsula Mountains, with widespread 40s.
Meanwhile, temperatures down at sea level remain well below
freezing with single digits below zero in the southern Susitna
Valley to single digits (above zero) and teens as you head south
to the Kenai Peninsula. The exception is coastal locations like
Whittier, Seward, and Kodiak where downslope winds are mixing
down the warm air to the surface. The airmass over the Copper
River Basin remains quite a bit cooler, with temperatures well
below zero in the Copper Valley. Robust low level northerly flow
along the east side of the ridge is combining with surface
pressure gradients to maintain fairly strong and gusty winds along
coastal gaps. The steep temperature inversion in place on the
eastern Kenai Peninsula seems to be promoting downward
acceleration of the winds along the coast, with wind gusts as high
as 50 to 60 mph in both the Seward and Whittier areas.
The weather will remain quite stagnant for the next few days as
the ridge remains upstream of Southcentral. The ridge center will
slowly shift southward into the North Pacific, but anticyclonic
flow over Southcentral and the Gulf will remain strong. Today will
likely be the warmest day in the mountains, with slight cooling
as a ridge axis over Southcentral shifts south late today.
However, the areas which are above freezing now will likely remain
there. Inland valleys will see a slight warming, but will largely
remain below freezing. Gap winds will keep going along the coast,
though as the ridge shifts a bit further east this weekend, low
level flow will weaken and pressure gradients will loosen. This
will lead to weakening of all coastal gap winds. Other than some
occasional mid to high clouds passing through, conditions will
remain dry.
-SEB
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday morning)...
The large ridge over the eastern Bering will begin to weaken with
the core shifting south into the North Pacific Friday and
Saturday. Low stratus and fog will continue this morning for
portions of the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley with
the potential for it to linger into Friday morning. The one
caveat against fog is that surface winds will turn northeasterly
and off-shore today which could advect in slightly drier air from
the interior helping to lower dew points. However, the overall
airmass and ridge position today into Friday morning will change
very little. Elsewhere across Southwest, expect mostly scattered
high clouds today through Saturday.
A series of shortwaves continues to deliver light rain and
southeast winds to the Western Aleutians this morning. This
activity is expected to clip Adak later today. A shortwave coming
off of Kamchatka will interact with a shortwave in the North
Pacific late this evening into Friday morning and cause a surface
low to spin up across the Western Aleutians Friday morning. This
will help to enhance showers and winds across the both the
Western and Central Aleutians Friday as the front pushes eastward
with time. Pockets of gale-force winds are possible across the
Central Aleutians Friday with mostly small-craft winds expected.
Pockets of gale-force winds are expected across the western
Bering Friday evening into Saturday morning on the backside of the
system.
The initial front weakens as it reaches the Pribilof Islands
Saturday. However, the main trough across the western Bering will
begin to dig further into the North Pacific Saturday afternoon and
evening which will help pull more moisture northward. This
additional moisture surge looks to mainly affect portions of the
Central Aleutians (Atka) and the Pribilof Islands with steadier
rain late Saturday night into Sunday. The front also makes it to
the Kuskokwim Delta coast and Nunivak Island Saturday and remains
stationary into Sunday morning. The resulting weather for now
looks to be showers for Saturday with potentially more wide-spread
and steadier rain for Sunday across the Kuskokwim Delta coast.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...
The Alaska Weather map will become a bit more elastic and active
as a strong shortwave ripples across the top of the Interior
Alaska upper level ridge through Tuesday. The Bering shortwave
extending from an Anadyr low moves over the ridge into Canada for
Tuesday. The ridge resets over the Western Mainland through
Wednesday. Areas of moderate rain and some gusty winds spread over
the Western and Central Aleutians on Sunday before the system
moves over the Bering. This system will turn Eastward, briefly
flattening the ridge. Most of the Southern Interior is expected to
have light winds, overall dry conditions and somewhat moderate
temperatures in the zonal flow over the lower half of the state,
although coolest overall temperatures should linger over the
Eastern Interior through Tuesday. Precipitation, if any, will be
light and intermittent through the weekend with a very small and
brief risk of freezing precipitation over Interior locations.
&&.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.
&&
$$
764
FXAK67 PAJK 211229
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
329 AM AKST Thu Nov 21 2024
.SHORT TERM.../Through Thursday/... The forecast remains largely
unchanged, with an ongoing outflow even likely to continue through
the remainder of the week. A broad area of ridging over Alaska
remains entrenched, as a blocking pattern increasingly takes hold
with sharp areas of troughing on either side serving to mitigate
any imminent departure of the ridge. For SE AK, this means that
cold weather, clear skies, and wind look set to continue. The wind
will at least marginally diminish in some areas for much of
Thursday as the pressure gradient weakens somewhat in conjunction
with a decaying low located W of Washington State. However, the
decaying low will be replaced by a new low as cyclogenesis occurs
along the SE periphery of the trough axis, and so expect
wind speeds to begin ramping back up again by Thursday night into
Friday.
Still anticipate windy conditions for many land-based locations,
though think that at least for downtown Juneau and Douglas, wind
gusts will drop below 60 mph beyond early Thursday morning. Only
minimal changes were to made to the forecast - mainly to
temperatures through the current time frame in order to reflect
the (somewhat) warmer conditions caused by turbulent mixing.
Forecaster confidence is above average.
.LONG TERM.../Friday into early next week/... Blocking pattern
developing over the region means that conditions will remain
relatively unchanged through the weekend and into early next week
across the panhandle. High pressure will continue over the
interior, though may shift further east into British Columbia by
the start of next week. This could lead to a slight weakening of
northerly outflow winds, but enhance outflow winds from NE and
easterly oriented valleys and interior passes.
Any chance of precipitation returning to the panhandle rests on the
blocking ridge over the western gulf breaking down. Deterministic
models are attempting to do so, or at least weaken the ridge such
that a short wave can develop in the northern gulf. If this comes to
fruition, snow showers could be expected along the outer coast
sometime Monday into Tuesday with the potential to reach into the
Icy Strait corridor and central panhandle. However, ensembles
guidance are still leaning towards the ridge remaining strong into
early next week. For those looking for more snow, this potential
trough early next week looks to be fairly dry with ensemble
guidance suggesting 24 hr snow totals of 1.5 to 2.5 inches by
Wednesday.
This far out, there is a high confidence in the overall synoptic
pattern with outflow winds continuing and relatively dry conditions
through the weekend. With no significant storms currently showing up
in model guidance in the mid and long range, the blocking ridge
could be around for a while, which means generally below normal
temperatures and continuing dry conditions potentially into the
Thanksgiving holiday.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR SKC with outflow winds continuing. LLWS and
turbulence through the morning before winds at ridgetop diminish
for a few hours. Expect elevated NE winds at ridgetop to return
Friday.
&&
.MARINE...Gale force outflow winds through northern inner
channels and interior passes/river valleys for the northeast gulf
coast, and out of Cross sound. With the persistent winds in Lynn
Canal and down Chatham Strait, have enhanced seas through
Thursday. Winds diminish a bit on Thursday for some of the inner
channels before intensifying again late Thursday night into
Friday.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through this afternoon for AKZ318.
Strong Wind until 6 AM AKST early this morning for AKZ319.
High Wind Warning until 6 AM AKST early this morning for AKZ325.
Strong Wind from 6 AM this morning to noon AKST today for AKZ325.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-031-644.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-022-032>036-641>643-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...GFS
HYDROLOGY...99
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