185
FXAK68 PAFC 270144
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
444 PM AKST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

*** A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Southwest Kenai
Peninsula including Clam Gulch, Anchor Point, Ninilchik and
Homer from 6 pm this evening to 12pm Thursday.

*** A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Skilak Lake-
Including the cities of Cooper Landing and Skilak Lake from 9 pm
this evening to 3 am Friday.

*** A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Interior
Kenai Peninsula-Including the cities of Moose Pass, Hope, and
Summit Lake from 9pm this evening through 3 am Friday.

*** A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Turnagain Pass
from 9 pm this evening through 3 am Friday.

A series of fronts move through the Gulf of Alaska the next few
days bringing precipitation and warmer temperatures to
Southcentral. The Kenai Peninsula will be most impacted by these
fronts.

This evening into tomorrow morning, a front associated with a
North Pacific low south of the Central Aleutians crosses the Gulf
of Alaska bringing snow, rain and pockets of freezing rain to the
Kenai Peninsula this evening into tomorrow evening. Easterly
winds into the eastern coast of the peninsula will have a
difficult time warming most interior locations through sunrise
tomorrow. Therefore, higher elevations on the Seward Highway
will remain cold enough through the overnight hours resulting in
a heavy, wet snow to fall as low as 1,000 feet this evening and
overnight. The snow level rises to 1500 feet late tomorrow
morning. This rise in snow level corresponds with a rise in
surface temperatures. The precipitation changes to periods of a
rain/snow mix tomorrow afternoon and evening for these areas as
well as across the Kenai Peninsula. Snowfall amounts will vary
greatly depending on the amount of warm air flows into the area.
Therefore, there could be areas of rain in places along the
highway with other areas experiencing moderate to heavy snowfall.
Snowfall totals range from 8 to 16 inches in Turnagain Pass to 5
to 10 inches along the Seward highway from Hope to Primrose.

It is worth noting that warmer air could filter into the
southwest part of the Kenai Peninsula resulting in rain falling on
still frozen ground. This would create hazardous conditions on
the Sterling Highway from Sterling to Cooper Landing. Temperatures
rise above freezing late tomorrow morning shortly after the
arrival of southeasterly winds. Elsewhere, on the lee side of the
Chugach Mountains, easterly winds will allow for efficient
downsloping to occur in the Anchorage Bowl with this storm;
limiting precipitation amounts.

-Johnston

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The forecast is on track across the Bering and into Southwest
Alaska this evening. An area of low pressure south of Kodiak
Island will lift into interior Bristol Bay tonight with continued
gusty, easterly winds through the Kamishak Gap, and areas of snow
for Southwest Alaska. Iliamna, Koliganek, and New Stuyahok have
been experiencing winds gusting anywhere from 25 to 35 mph. These
winds should peak during the early morning hours on Thursday,
followed by a gradual weakening trend as low pressure continues
northward and dissipates. Light snow is forecast for inland
portions of Bristol Bay from Togiak to Dillingham to New Stuyahok,
with 1 to 3 inches of accumulation possible through Thursday
morning as the low passes overhead. An additional band of
deformation snow may also develop over the Kuskokwim Delta
Thursday morning, though models have not been consistent in the
placement of snow. Any accumulations would likely be on the
lighter side with only a dusting to perhaps an inch falling from
Bethel to the Kuskokwim Coast.

As has been advertised, warmer temperatures have been observed
today across southern parts of the Alaska Peninsula. Both King
Salmon and Iliamna are currently sitting at 40 degrees. This
warmer air mass will stay in place through tomorrow afternoon,
with a repeat of forecast high temperatures on Thursday. The main
short term concern has been for the potential of any freezing rain
across interior Bristol Bay with surface temperatures potentially
falling below freezing while upper air temperatures remain
warmer. There will be a brief window Thursday night for a freezing
rain/snow mix, as warmer temperatures during the afternoon hours
finally begin to cool down below freezing. At this time, however,
it appears any precipitation should be very light and quickly
coming to an end.

The next weather system will arrive to the Aleutians late Friday
into Saturday. A North Pacific low will bring a broad front into
the Aleutian Chain with scattered showers and gusty winds for what
will likely be the duration of the weekend. The front and
associated precipitation reaches the Pribilof Islands Saturday
afternoon while precipitation moves into Southwest Alaska Saturday
night/early Sunday morning.

BL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Sunday through Wednesday)...

The long term forecast starts off with continued warm air being
advected northwards from the North Pacific due to a low south of
the Aleutians. The North Pacific low will also allow for
widespread precipitation to affect the Aleutian Islands, the
Alaska Peninsula, and the Southcentral Coast including Kodiak
Island on Sunday. The heaviest precipitation is expected in
Southcentral due to a fetch of moisture from the south. Also, the
Western Aleutians will see northerly flow and gale force winds
from the low. The Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay will not see
large impacts with this low and may see light to moderate
precipitation at times with northeasterly winds. The Southcentral
Coast may also see a period of gale force winds as a front moves
into the Northern Gulf.

Monday sees chances for precipitation decrease as the low weakens
and high pressure moves into the Gulf. However, a second North
Pacific low moves up towards the Bering and brings another round
of precipitation and gusty winds to the Aleutians starting Monday
evening and lasting through Wednesday. This time, moderate to
heavy precipitation may make it to the Bristol Bay and the
Kuskokwim Delta. Winds are more uncertain, but gusty northerly
winds may affect the coastal Southwest Mainland as well. These
northerly winds would also allow for sustained cold air
advection, which would cool temperatures considerably in Southwest
Alaska. Meanwhile, Southcentral will have some potential for
precipitation by Tuesday as the low slowly moves eastward.
Uncertainty is higher for Southcentral, however.

-JAR

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...Northerly winds increase today at the terminal but
generally remain below 10 knots and persist through Thursday.
Ceilings are likely to remain above 5000 ft for the duration of
the TAF period. There is potential for increasing wind shear
beginning overnight as southeasterly winds at 2000 ft or higher
increase to around 40 knots. This low-level wind shear potential
lasts through around noon Thursday. Southeasterly Turnagain Arm
winds may also move over the terminal by Thursday evening,
lingering for several hours before becoming northerly.

A front lifting across the terminal Thursday into Friday, will
introduce increasing chances of overrunning snow showers as early
as Thursday. This leads to increasing potential for ceilings and
visibility to drop to MVFR in passing showers, though the
probability is still considered low at this time.

TM/CQ

&&


$$

748
FXAK67 PAJK 270620
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
920 PM AKST Wed Nov 26 2025

.UPDATE.../to add the 06Z aviation discussion/...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

-Cold outflow winds persist through Thursday

-Drier weather for most of the panhandle through the end of the
week with the exception of the northern Gulf (Yakutat).

-Another system arrives in the panhandle Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A quiet weather pattern across most of the
panhandle through Friday, with drier weather across most of the
area (with the exception of Yakutat), cooler temperatures, and at
times clearer skies.

The active upper level steering flow has temporarily broken down, as
the eastern flank of the longwave trough which had been directing
systems into the panhandle has largely disintegrated. This has
enabled cold air outflow winds to establish themselves across SE AK,
as high pressure builds over Canada. While the cold air outflow
winds aren`t all that strong in most locations, they will contribute
to cooler temperatures and greater breaks in the clouds over the
next few days.

Consequently, Thanksgiving Day looks to be largely dry for much of
the area. The one likely exception is Yakutat, as a low which has
been redirected off to the W sends a warm front moving into the
northern gulf coast beginning late on Thursday and lasting
through Friday. While the chance of some PoPs from this front
reaching as far as Elfin Cove and Pelican on Thursday night can`t
be ruled out, think that these chances are on the low side, as dry
air from the cold air outflow will likely erode precip bands more
aggressively than is currently portrayed by operational guidance.

Cold air outflow weakens on Friday as a ridge builds over the
eastern Gulf. Drier weather is likely to remain for most locations
until Sunday, when the ridge is displaced east by an advancing
system. For additional details, see the long term discussion.

.LONG TERM...Weak shortwave will move across the Gulf, bringing a
gale force front over the NE Gulf and along parts of the panhandle
into Friday. Steeper 500 mb ridging over the Gulf will prevent the
waves moving through Friday into Saturday from reaching as far
into the panhandle, rather funneling most of the precipitation up
into the northern Gulf coastline from Yakutat westward. Largely
slight chance to chance of precipitation moving further east into
the rest of the panhandle, with decreasing PoPs into Saturday
morning as the associated low weakens further and moves
northwestward, before dissipating ahead of the next stronger
system approaching. This first system Friday will largely begin to
break down the outflow and bring in warmer temperatures in the
panhandle, with high temperatures between the high 30s to low 40s
expected Friday after the warm front moves through and brings in
warmer air from the south. The cooler air mass lingering into
Friday near the surface and the lower snow levels across the
panhandle will allow still some snow in the early morning Friday
and Friday night with some mixing mid day, but by the next more
impactful system it appears like the outflow pattern will be
disrupted already.

Largely the forecast remains the same for the Sunday system moving
into Monday, with some questions still remaining on how quickly
the warm air will begin to advect into the panhandle and begin to
warm the surface on Sunday. This next system will bring another
front across the panhandle Sunday, along with more warmer air from
the south, bringing maximum temperatures at the surface up to the
40s across the panhandle into Monday. Not many changes were made
to the QPF amounts expected for this stronger system, with up to 2
inches in 24 hours expected along the NE Gulf coast with the
heaviest rates of between 0.4 and 0.6 inches in 6 hours expected
Sunday evening into Sunday night. The rest of the panhandle is
expected to see between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of QPF, with the only
snow accumulation being for the highways as snow levels rapidly
rise and temperatures increase into the mid 40s elsewhere during
the day. The Haines Highway near the border is expected to see
less than an inch in 24 hours, while the Klondike Highway is
expected to see between 3 and 5 inches of snowfall during the
Sunday system, with the snow becoming wetter and more dense Sunday
night into Monday morning as snow levels continue to rise above
3000 ft. While the warmer temperatures are moving into the
panhandle during the day, the colder and drier airmass in place
overnight will still allow for some chances of snow mixing in
Sunday morning, before the majority of the panhandle aside from
the higher elevation locations will transition to rain by around
late morning to midday. No accumulation is expected even with the
snow mixing in during the morning hours, however.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 06Z Friday/...Widespread conditions in the VFR
flight category are in store for the northern 3/4 of the
panhandle through the 24-hour TAF period. For the southern
quarter, especially PAKT, expect MVFR CIGs through the early
morning hours, after which flight conditions will precipitously
improve into the VFR category for the rest of the aviation forecast
period. As far as SFC winds are concerned, they will remain light
for most areas, except for the Northern Lynn Canal area,
specifically around the PAGY & PAHN areas, which will continue to
experience northerly outflow winds of around 15 kt, gusting up to
around 25 - 30 kt through the entirety of the TAF timeframe. LLWS
values remain benign through the aviation forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
OUTSIDE WATERS: Waveheights of 6-10 feet remain through Wednesday
night, as outflow winds continue to funnel out of the inner
channels and into the Gulf. Winds broadly remain between moderate
to fresh breeze, though some favored outflow channels could see
windier conditions. Thursday will see winds strengthen over the
northern and central gulf waters as strong breeze to near gale
winds develop as a front moves through. Waveheights will also
increase Thursday, rising to 10-14 ft for the northern gulf and
central gulf, and 6-8 ft for more outer coastal waters closer to
the shoreline south of Cape Spencer.

INSIDE WATERS: A weak cold air outflow event remains underway
through Thursday, with Northerly winds of 15-20 kt for many of
the inner channels, while more outflow impacted areas like Point
Couverden and Taku Inlet see 25-30 kt, and seas of 3-5 feet. By
Thursday night, outflow winds will be weakening as the pressure
gradient becomes more parallel to the panhandle, with winds
dropping to 10 - 15 kt, potentially less in some locations, for
the inner channels.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ651-661-664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...GFS

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