885
FXAK68 PAFC 071428
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
528 AM AKST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Message:

Weather continues to remain active across Southcentral Alaska with
continued threats of snow, blowing snow, strong winds, and
dangerously low wind chills through the end of the weekend. The cold
airmass will be with us well beyond the end of the short term.

...Active Warnings and Advisories...

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Northeast Kodiak
Island, including Kodiak City, Ouzinkie, and Port Lions through 3PM
this afternoon for 2 to 4 inches of additional snowfall and
continued blowing snow. Winds gusting up to 50 mph are possible for
the northern side of the island and up to 40 mph for Kodiak City.

- A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Matanuska Valley
through 1PM Monday for 35 to 50 mph winds with gusts up to 80 mph.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Anchorage and the NW Kenai
Peninsula through 1PM Monday. North winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts
to 50 mph expected. Strongest winds expected along the Knik Arm from
Birchwood southwest, across North and West Anchorage, and along the
coast of the northern Cook Inlet, including Kenai and Nikiski.

- A Blizzard Warning has been extended through noon today for
Thompson Pass for ground blizzard conditions. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph expected. Wind chills as low as 35 below zero possible.

- A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for Broad Pass, Richardson
Highway from south of Isabel Pass to Paxson, and along the Tok
Cutoff from Mentasta Pass to north of Gakona through 9PM Sunday due
to blowing snow with winds gusting to 50 mph. Wind chills dip as low
as 15 to 25 degrees below zero, falling further to 25 to 40 degrees
below zero.

Discussion:

The overall weather pattern remains mostly unchanged this morning as
an arctic airmass remains entrenched over most of Alaska.
Temperatures have fallen into the negatives across much of inland
Southcentral where calm winds and clear skies have allowed for
efficient radiational cooling. Many of the areas experiencing strong
winds have seen temperatures remaining above zero but with below
zero wind chills. The dense arctic airmass has continued to produce
strong gap flow winds through north/south oriented gaps and passes,
as has been the case the past 24-36 hrs. The strongest of these
winds have been through the Matanuska Valley where wind gusts of up
to 90 mph were reported. Strong winds were also felt along the Knik
Arm to north and west Anchorage and along the coast of the northern
Cook Inlet, including Kenai and Nikiski. These winds have subsided
somewhat this morning but are expected to pick back up later this
morning, and continuing through tonight before gradually decreasing
through Monday.

Strong winds have also created ground blizzard concerns through many
of the passes, including Broad Pass, Isabel Pass, and Thompson Pass.
Webcams indicated winds gusting to 50 mph through Thompson Pass are
still created significant blowing and drifting of snow this morning
so have extended the Blizzard Warning through noon today. These
conditions through the passes should improve later today as snow in
these areas becomes more compacted and harder to loft, and winds
gradually subside. However, gusty winds will continue to produce
dangerous wind chills heading into the workweek.

Accumulating snowfall is still ongoing over northern Kodiak Island
this morning. Moderate to heavy snowfall fell most of the night with
strong winds reducing visibilities down to under a mile. Conditions
have improved, but another shortwave trough rotating around the
parent low will bring another round of moderate snow by late morning
to early afternoon with up to several more inches of accumulating
snowfall. By Monday morning the Gulf low will start to shear apart
and move eastwards. Looking at the upcoming workweek, the weather
looks to remain cold and mostly dry, with gap winds continuing for
favorable locations.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Very cold temperatures and gusty winds will continue across
Southwest Alaska. Wind chills 20 to 30 below zero are expected to
continue through at least Monday. Winds will gradually diminish
through the early portions of next week. Additionally, conditions
will remain dry and mostly clear through early next week. Periods
of snow showers will continue across the southern Alaska
Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians today, spreading west across the
rest of the Aleutians tonight and Monday.

With high pressure sitting over Southwest Alaska and much of the
Bering Sea/Aleutians, expected conditions to remain largely
unchanged through early/mid-week. Models are hinting at the next
front/low combinations entering the Western Bering/Aleutians
Wednesday morning. Though uncertainty remains, the consensus as
of now is for the front to remain mostly confined to the Western
Aleutians as the system brings some rain across the area and some
gale-force winds to the marine areas of the Western Aleutians by
early Wednesday morning.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

The long-term pattern continues to favor mostly cold and windy
conditions across the Southern Mainland Wednesday through
Saturday. Across Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula
(AKPEN), a trough digs south over the Peninsula as a ridge builds
and amplifies northward through the Bering. As the trough crosses
the AKPEN Wednesday, northerly winds and wind gusts will be
enhanced in its wake as colder air advects in. Cold, windy, and
dry conditions also persist across Mainland through Saturday.
While the Central and Eastern Aleutians remain dry and under the
influence of ridging during the long-term period, the Western
Aleutians will be behind the ridge and under the influence of
warmer southerly to southeasterly winds. A series of weak fronts
may clip the Western Aleutians bringing light rain to the area
through the period, along with gale-froce winds across the marine
areas of the Western Aleutians. The pattern for Southcentral also
remains mostly the same with a series of Gulf lows lifting to the
central Gulf through the long-term which will help to pull winds
through the favored gaps and passes; especially Valdez Narrows,
Resurrection Bay, Passage Canal, and the Matanuska Valley.
Moisture from the Gulf lows looks to mainly be confined to the
northern Gulf Coast Wednesday and Thursday as the interior remains
cold, dry, and windy at times.

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions along with strong northerly winds and gusts will
persist through Sunday. Wind speeds will remain relatively steady
today, with gusts to 45 mph out of the north through early this
afternoon. The strong winds will likely allow localized drifting
and blowing snow to continue. Winds to come down slightly, gusts
to 30 to 35 mph late this afternoon into Monday morning.

&&


$$

948
FXAK67 PAJK 071759
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
859 AM AKST Sun Dec 7 2025

.UPDATE...Update to the Aviation section for the 18z TAFs.

Thunderstorm in the enhanced showers are moving into the
southeast Gulf of Alaska and approaching the coastline from
Baranof Island south to Prince of Wales Island. Be aware of
downburst outflow wind gusts from cells, and potential for
lightning strikes through This afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 457 AM AKST Sun Dec 7 2025...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Moderate to heavy snow continues over the Icy Strait Corridor and
will continue to spread southward into central and southern
panhandle as temperatures decrease.

- Cold temperatures moving into SEAK to start the week, with some
areas seeing single digits or sub zero temperatures. Apparent
temperature along White pass dipping below -20.

SHORT TERM...After advancing southward faster than progged
Saturday morning, the arctic boundary`s advance has slowed to a
crawl, with the front currently located slightly north of Angoon,
and between Grave point and the Five Finger Lighthouse as of the
time of writing. A positively tilted area of deep troughing over
the Gulf of AK is continuing to send fronts sweeping in along its
eastern flank, which will continue to keep rain and snow across
most of the area through the weekend.

Rain and snow which persisted overnight will largely continue
through the day on Sunday, barring the far northern panhandle
where strong northerly outflow will lead to diminishing chances of
PoPs through the day. Another frontal band pushing northward
across the panhandle as of the time of writing will deliver with
it a renewed round of snow and rainfall. This frontal band will
stall somewhere between the central panhandle and the Icy Strait
Corridor, and its location will play a key role in determining
where the heaviest precip falls through the day on Sunday. A
location further north would favor more snow for Juneau and other
Icy Strait Corridor locations, while anywhere further south would
favor the central panhandle more instead - and subsequently more
rainfall for those locations.

As this frontal band stalls and weakens, the arctic front will
resume its advance southward, and will likely successfully push to
Kake and Point Gardner sometime between Sunday afternoon and
Sunday evening, setting the stage for a changeover to snow in
these areas in the wake of the front`s passage, with some
accumulations anticipated as still another frontal band moves
northward through Sunday evening. Meanwhile, the northern
panhandle will see PoP rates diminishing through Sunday morning as
drier outflow air mixes out precip, and as this outflow air works
its way southward, anticipate that the Icy Strait Corridor will be
largely free of precip by late Sunday night, though Juneau may
cling on to chances of snowfall longer than other locations.

One final system will move through the south/central panhandle
Monday into Tuesday. Depending on the final track of this low,
alongside the continued southward push of the arctic front,
confidence is growing in the potential for accumulating snow in
even the southern panhandle with this system.

Winds will continue to build across outflow areas through the time
frame, with strong northerlies setting temperatures on a general
downward trend across the panhandle. While the advancing weather
fronts from the south will occasionally succeed in slowing the
advance of the arctic boundary, they will be unable to stymie it
entirely and by Monday night, most - if not all - of the panhandle
will be experiencing significantly colder temperatures as the
first substantial cold air outflow event of the season overruns SE
AK. The cold temperatures, combined with the strong outflow
winds, will see plunging wind chills in less-sheltered areas,
especially in the northern panhandle. A cold weather advisory has
been issued for the Klondike Highway beginning Sunday afternoon,
and an extreme cold watch is in force for the same area beginning
Monday night.

LONG TERM.../Monday night through Saturday/ Arctic boundary
continues to move southward over the southern panhandle at the
start of the mid range and will likely move south of the panhandle
by mid week. Building high pressure in NW Canada and Alaska
Interior is creating offshore flow and ushering colder air through
the northern panhandle. This air is very cold with 850 mb temps
plummeting into the -15 to -25 C range by mid week across the
northern panhandle and near -10 C over the south. At sea level
this is translating to overnight lows reaching single digits above
or below zero for the north and teens and 20s for the south.
Daytime highs will struggle to get into the 20s for the north and
into the 30s for the south. Coldest temperatures look to occur
Monday night into Wednesday night, but sub freezing temperatures
are likely to stick around into next weekend as well. Northern
panhandle will be watched as many locations will be approaching
their criteria for cold weather advisories or extreme cold
warnings (especially the haines and Klondike Highways) early to
mid week.

In addition to the cold, strong outflow winds are also expected
with many northern panhandle channels seeing gale force outflow
through most of the week. A strong 1035 mb high in the Yukon is
the main driver of that outflow and it will just persist and
strengthen to 1045 mb by late next week. Expect gusty winds out of
many of the outflow areas in the northern panhandle to start
with, but expect outflow out of areas farther south through the
week as the Yukon high spreads into northern British Columbia by
late week. With these winds and the cold air that it is bringing,
a few secondary effects will be noticeable. First, wind chills
will be rather frigid reaching into the negative teens and
possibly colder in the north most of the week. Second, is that
freezing spray will become a more widespread problem for many
marine areas in the inner channels and along the NE gulf coast.
The freezing spray could become heavy at times in Lynn Canal, Near
Taku Inlet, and northern parts of Glacier Bay throughout the
week.

Otherwise, most of the panhandle will be dry through the mid and
long range except for possibly the south. A series of lows will be
moving into the BC coast and could send some of their precip into
the southern panhandle throughout the week. Given how cold the
atmosphere is expected to be the precip, when it does fall, will
mostly be in the form of snow. Highest accumulations possible
early Tuesday, but additional accumulations will likely be low for
the mid week period. There is the possibility of a another snow
event for the south next Friday into Saturday with a couple inches
of accumulation possible but storm track is uncertain at this time
for that system.

AVIATION...Conditions this morning continue with VFR to MVFR
ceilings across the panhandle. The big thing affecting flying
conditions this morning is the visibilities from the snow or rain.
Some of the snow passing over the panhandle this morning have
been dropping vis down to 3/4 SM as the current frontal band
moving across the northern panhandle continues. Elsewhere,
visibility has not been as much of an issue due to snow passing
through the area. South of the frontal band, convective showers
have been evident on satellite and radar with some lightning being
reported along the outer coast and farther offshore. These
showers are expected to continue throughout today for the outer
coast region. Some LLWS may be possible today but is expected to
diminish especially as we get into the latter half of the TAF
period. Although there is the possibility that LLWS increases,
especially as the outflow conditions continue to strengthen with
the increasing cold air.


MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A low pressure continues to sit
in the western Gulf this morning bringing southerly fresh to
strong breezes to the outer coast and offshore waters. These
conditions are expected to persist while gales continue to
strengthen in areas that are favored by outflow winds. In
particular, areas between Cape Spencer and Yakutat Bay could see
high end gales, and even near storm force winds in favorable
outflow channels. As the low remains over the western Gulf, these
strong outflow winds look set to continue through at least the
first half of the upcoming week, and potentially even through the
second half. With the low remaining in the Gulf, wave heights are
expected to remain elevated with 10-15 ft seas and a SW swell
component.

Inside (Inner Channels): The Arctic boundary continues to push
southward this morning with the boundary around Grave Point for
the Stephens Passage area and somewhere between Point Couverden
and Tenakee Springs. As the boundary continues its trek southward,
winds will continue to shift to north while wind speeds are
expected to increase for the Lynn Canal area. To the south, winds
are expected to remain out of the south before switching to either
more of a northerly or easterly wind as the pressure gradient
increases. Headed into the start of the week, a low is expected to
move across the southern panhandle which should allow for winds
to diminish for the southern Inner Channels. Meanwhile, winds and
cold temperatures across the northern Inner Channels will likely
see an increasing potential for freezing spray, especially as the
air temperature continues to drop with the Arctic air mass.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST Monday for AKZ318.
Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon
for AKZ318.
Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ319.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ320-321-
325.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ322.
Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday
night for AKZ326-329.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKST
Monday for AKZ327.
Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM AKST Monday for AKZ331.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ651.
Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-022-031-053-643-644-663-664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-032>034-036-641-642-652-661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...EAL
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...GFS

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