708
FXAK68 PAFC 130253
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
553 PM AKST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday morning)...

Dry conditions and below normal temperatures revisit Southcentral
this afternoon, however, an inbound shortwave trough from the
west brings increasing cloud cover which will inhibit the
development of fog and low stratus overnight. Should sky
conditions become clear, patchy freezing fog may still be
possible. Cloud cover will also keep low temperatures 5 to 8
degrees above Tuesday night`s lows.

Thursday will see increased clouds, but otherwise very similar
conditions to Wednesday for most of Southcentral. Precipitation
should remain limited to Prince William Sound and the north Gulf
coast and diminish through the afternoon.

Friday afternoon a low in the Bering pushes into the Gulf with
widespread small-craft and areas of gale force winds across the
entrance to Cook Inlet and through Shelikof Strait. Models are
projecting the formation of a triple point low along the trough
near Kodiak Island. Consensus varies on timing and position of
where that takes place, from just north to just south of the
island. Wind fields may change rapidly, but the general consensus
of rain and higher elevation snow for Kodiak and then coastal
Kenai Peninsula is likely to remain unchanged for Friday. By
saturday morning the low will have moved south of the Kenai
Peninsula, with little to no precipitation reaching the western
Kenai and Anchorage.



&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Light snow continues this afternoon for the northern Alaska
Peninsula, Bristol Bay, and Kuskokwim Delta along the decaying
frontal boundary which stalled along the coast today as it reached
the Mainland. Any remaining snow showers are expected to continue
to diminish through this evening with additional accumulation up
to one inch. Elsewhere, relatively quiet weather persists this
evening as the Bering experiences a lull between weather systems.

By Thursday morning, a gale-force low lifts towards the Eastern
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. As the system reaches the southern
Bering, a negatively tilting upper level trough pushing east
across the Bering helps to strengthen this system as it takes on a
more complex structure. Models have come into better agreement on
the track of the low through Thursday afternoon, but the biggest
forecast challenge continues to be how far north the low
progresses in the southern Bering and the timing of the strongest
winds affecting the Aleutian Chain. By Thursday afternoon, winds
ranging from small-craft to gale strength are expected to pick up
across much of the Aleutian Chain and Alaska Peninsula. Winds are
expected to peak Friday morning through Friday evening as the low
begins to pivots east towards the Gulf. Widespread westerly gales
are expected across the Central and Eastern Aleutians Friday, with
westerly storm force gusts possible roughly from Atka to Unalaska
through Friday afternoon.

Heading into the weekend, the next low and potentially gale force
front tracks across the western Aleutians and Bering Sea through
Saturday morning. Shortly after, this system begins to interact
and phase with a much stronger North Pacific low as it lifts
across the Aleutians and into the Southern Bering Saturday into
Sunday with the potential for the storm to deepen to a sub-950 mb
low. There are a lot of details to iron out with this system and
any impacts related to the storm will be highly dependent on storm
track, in which confidence remains low at this time. Please stay
tuned and monitor the forecast for this upcoming system.

-JH/AM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

For Southcentral, the long term forecast reflects the eastward
displacement of the persistent Gulf of Alaska trough into Canada
by early monday morning, allowing a ridge of high pressure to
ridge into the region. This will bring cooing temperatures across
Southcentral through mid-week.

The larger weather concerns are for Pribilofs, Southwest Alaska
and Aleutian Islands. A deepening North Pacific low, embedded with
a broad upper level Bering trough will lift northwestward from
the Central Aleutians, delivering gale-to-storm force winds and
heavy precipitation across the southern Bering Sea, including the
Pribilofs before before weakening early in the week. A second
North Pacific low pressure system is forecasted to cross over the
Aleutians late Monday and into Tuesday. This will bring sustained
southerly to southwesterly flow and elevating precipitation
probabilities across Southwest Alaska. The exact path of the
system is somewhat uncertain as there is very little agreement
between the major global models. A frontal boundary advancing
onshore Tuesday and into Wednesday will reinforce above-normal
temperatures and precipitation with the potential for coastal
rainfall and inland mixed precipitation in the elevated terrain.


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Areas of fog and low stratus have persisted across the
northern Cook Inlet just off to the northwest of Anchorage
overnight. There will continue to be a threat for intermittent
periods of IFR conditions or lower if any of stratus/fog manages
to drift southeast into the terminal, especially this morning.
Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

-AS

&&


$$

128
FXAK67 PAJK 130550
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
850 PM AKST Wed Nov 12 2025

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion for 6z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...An area of weak low pressure remains in the far northern
Gulf near Prince William Sound this afternoon which is bringing
light rain showers to parts of the Gulf waters and Yakutat area.
Farther to the south, high pressure has moved into the control the
rest of the weather for SE AK. With high pressure controlling
most of the weather for the area, winds continue to be relatively
light with the strongest winds getting up to gentle to moderate
breezes. These conditions are expected to persist tonight before
the low moves closer towards Yakutat which will increase the winds
coming out of Cross Sound and increase the possibility of showers
along the outer coast for tomorrow. With the mostly clear skies
overnight though, temperatures are expected to drop this evening
bringing near freezing to below freezing temperatures for the
Panhandle. For Thursday night, the chance for active weather
returns as the odds for precipitation increase across the area.
With the cooler temperatures, a mix of rain and snow before
switching to mostly rain as warmer temperatures return reducing
the likelihood of snow.

.LONG TERM.../ Friday through Sunday / Weakening trough falls
apart across the north central panhandle as another one lifts
towards the southern panhandle. Friday to Saturday will see a
front, from a low that forms on a feature from the big parent low
in the west central Bering Sea, spreads across the gulf reaching
for the panhandle area and then through the area by Saturday
night.

Late Saturday to Sunday is showing ridging over the gulf to central
gulf coast, while an upper level low cutting south of the
panhandle helps to pull the front through and southeast, which
should result in partial clear, or an end of the shower activity
in the northeast gulf coast and northern panhandle. Does look like
the break will not be very long in time.

Rain snow line Friday and Saturday down to about the Icy Strait
Juneau line, and light or no Accumulations are possible before
warming later and Friday to Saturday pushes in and changes that
region to rain again. Northern Lynn Canal a mix or light snow
accumulation although concerned that moisture amounts will not be
sufficient for larger totals. At this staying on the lighter end
of Snow totals. ( under a few inches. ( under 3 inches ) however
if better QPF is available this could be doubled.

&&

.AVIATION...Variable conditions across the panhandle Wednesday
night as some clearing in the upper levels is gradually being
replaced by low and mid level stratus developing over the inner
channels ranging from 2000 to 3000 ft, but AoB 500 ft in some
areas. The lowest conditions are in the vicinity of Juneau as well
as Gustavus. Low level stratus is expected to last into the
morning, gradually expanding to encompass most of the inner
channels. Fog however is not expected to be as pervasive, as
temperatures in the low to mid 30s generally result in fog
frosting out after a period. However, the combination of fog and
low stratus moving in overhead could allow fog to persist for
longer. For Thursday, a weak trough will bring more moisture to
the panhandle as well as a slight increase in winds which will
also help to mix out some of the low clouds as it moves through.
This will also lead to winds for the southern half of the
panhandle to pick up more out of the SE and E by early Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Showers and gentle breezes
continue across the Gulf and outer coast this afternoon as high
pressure remains over the eastern portion of the Gulf while a weak
low pressure currently sits near Prince William Sound. Winds across
the area are expected to remain light across the area headed into
Thursday. As the low drifts to the east towards Yakutat, winds are
expected to increase out of Cross Sound into the Cape Fairweather
area. Even with this low in the Gulf, wave heights are expected to
be on a downward trend headed into the weekend with seas being
around 4-5 ft Friday morning. This will be a brief break though the
next system moves north into the area Friday into Saturday bringing
winds increasing towards fresh to strong breezes. Seas are expected
to start building towards 8-12 ft at this time.

Inside (Inner Channels): Light winds persist across the Inner
Channels this afternoon. Winds are expected to shift out of the
north as a weak outflow setup is expected. Winds are expected to
remain light headed into tomorrow for most places with the strongest
winds likely being for the Dixon Entrance/Clarence Strait area and
headed towards Cross Sound. Headed into the weekend, winds are
expected to towards fresh breezes in response to the the low in the
Gulf

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...Bezenek
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...SF

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