586
FXAK68 PAFC 241307
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
407 AM AKST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

IR satellite imagery from early this morning shows the low that
has been in the central Gulf the past two days has moved eastward
along with its shower activity. There are a few showers still
rotating around the low in the western Gulf that could move
across Kodiak today, but other than that, this low is becoming
less of a factor in the weather over Southcentral. Mid and high
level clouds associated with a weak upper level low can be seen
over southern Cook Inlet, but these clouds will dissipate as that
low continues its journey westward. Other than that, weak ridging
aloft is keeping most of Southcentral clear this morning. Most of
Southcentral, but not all of it. Fog-fest 2025 is entering its
third day for the Anchorage bowl and the big question is if today
will be the day it finally dissipates and the fog party ends. What
is different about today compared to the past two days is that
there is definite colder and drier air finally moving far enough
south down the Susitna Valley to begin eroding this persistent fog
bank. Temperatures and dew points from Talkeetna to Wasilla are
running 5 to 10 degrees colder than the same time last night. This
is already eroding the western edge of the fog bank as can be
seen on the nighttime microphysics satellite imagery. The fog bank
remains over the Anchorage Bowl, but ends abruptly just west of
the Anchorage airport. This is less widespread than last night,
though it does extend southward past the Kenai and Soldotna areas
this morning. The same thinking goes for the western Kenai
Peninsula: The drier air should erode out most of the fog as the
day progresses. We shall see.

The next front moves into the western Gulf later tomorrow with
increasing easterly winds into Kodiak Island tonight. Current
thinking is that these winds will expand in coverage across the
Gulf, with small craft winds covering much of the Gulf by Tuesday
morning. The strongest winds will be through the Barren Islands
and into Kamishak Bay, with easterly gusts as high as 35 knots.
This front over the western Gulf will push into the northern Gulf
coast on Wednesday with precipitation chances returning to
coastal mountains and Prince William Sound.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A large scale pattern stretches from northeastern Russia into the
northern Pacific, with multiple surface lows embedded within the
elongated trough. This setup will support relatively strong
easterly flow across much of the Bering Sea through early this
week. Flow along the Aleutian Chain is expected to be more
variable as the lows move over them. Overall, anticipate small
craft to gale force winds through Tuesday morning for both the
Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain, including the Pribilof Islands,
and precipitation to continue.

For Southwest Alaska, flow remains primarily offshore, promoting a
drier, colder pattern across the region. Temperatures further
inland will be in the teens, with localized areas into the single
digits in the lower Kuskokwim Valley, during the daytime hours.
Overnight, the aforementioned areas can expect temperatures in the
low teens or single digits. Coastal areas of Bristol Bay will be
warmer with daytime temperatures in the upper 20`s to low 30`s
and overnight temperatures in the mid 20`s. Dry conditions are
expected to prevail until late Tuesday night into Wednesday, as an
inverted trough lifts up from Kodiak Island into Bristol Bay. A
warmer air mass will also move up with the arrival of this
feature, and surface temperatures could even poke up above
freezing across some parts of Bristol Bay on Wednesday. Areas of
light snow or rain/snow mix will develop along and ahead of the
incoming trough on Wednesday, mostly across Bristol Bay and the
northern AKPen. This looks like the beginnings of what could
become an abnormally warm and very active pattern towards the end
of this week that will be something to keep a close eye on in the
coming days.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through Sunday)...

All attention in the long term should be paid to a likely
atmospheric river event that could span from the Eastern Aleutians
to as far east as the Cook Inlet region Friday and heading into
the weekend.

Diving into the knowns and unknowns, the upper level pattern
looks to become increasingly more amplified Friday morning as a
deep, longwave trough takes shape over the Bering, Aleutians, and
North Pacific with textbook difluent flow downstream over the
western Gulf and interior Southwest Alaska. An anomalously strong
500 mb ridge over Southcentral Alaska, Gulf, and North Pacific
becomes anchored over the weekend, forcing the storm track to
become more north to south, which would track lows from the North
Pacific to the Eastern Bering and northward up the western Alaska
coastline.

Model agreement has decreased since yesterday, but guidance shows
the semblance of a shortwave trough amid the mean upper flow
rotating over the North Pacific as the longwave tries to take a
negative tilt. This combination of forcing develops a surface low
somewhere across the North Pacific and sends it northward towards
the Aleutians and so on. However, location and timing of the low
is poor as of the latest runs of the global models.

Along with being a wet system with periods of heavy
precipitation, the possibility of strong winds are certainly there
depending on the strength of the surface low and its associated
front, though this parameter is of lower confidence. There is also
a question of how much warm air advection the system may bring
into Southwest Alaska, in which case rain and mixed p-types would
likely make for hazardous conditions considering its current
snow/ice cover.

Please stay tuned over the coming days as the forecast comes more
into focus.

-AM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Fog and low stratus across the terminal, as with the last
couple of mornings and days, continues to be the challenge. Unlike
the last couple of days, there is more dry air just above the
surface with the saturated layer near the surface not being as
thick as the past two days. Therefore, fog could mix out at times
today into low stratus or even a low scattered deck. With that,
while IFR to LIFR conditions look to be predominant early this
morning, later in the morning to the afternoon offers better
chances for VFR. This evening into the overnight, an upper-level
shortwave will approach from the north and potentially offer up
some high-level clouds over the area which will help prevent
further radiational cooling. Another ingredient against the fog
case tonight would be greater dew point depressions of 4 to 6
degrees which indicates drier air at the surface. Thus, there are
greater chances for maintaining VFR conditions this evening and
overnight as opposed to this morning.

&&


$$

561
FXAK67 PAJK 241819 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
919 AM AKST Mon Nov 24 2025

.UPDATE...
Update to the Aviation Discussion at 18z.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Active pattern continues through Monday with rain/snow mix for
most areas.

- Winter weather advisory out for Haines for 4 to 6 inches of
snow through Monday evening.

- Offshore flow is looking more likely for the middle of next
week bringing colder temperatures and clearing skies to most
of the panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A weakening low in the gulf will continue to stream showers
across southeast Alaska to start the week. A majority of the outer
coast remains warm enough with the onshore flow to just see rain,
however the northeast coast up to around Yakutat has seen snow
showers at sea level with the airport there reporting visibilities
dropping to around 1 mile at times. With the position of the low
and winds expected to maintain a more northerly component there,
these showers continuing through the day are expected to bring
some minor snow accumulations up to 2 inches to the area. Higher
snow amounts cannot be ruled out though if showers begin to train
over the area more frequently. This possibility will be watched
closely through the morning and afternoon hours Monday.

Elsewhere, a winter weather advisory remains in effect for the
Haines area as snow has been falling continuously since around
midnight, with visibilities at the airport dropping as low as 1/4
mile with moderate to heavy snow. The heaviest snow rates are
expected through the morning hours before gradually diminishing
through the afternoon and evening hours. With developing high
pressure over the interior, Skagway has stayed slightly warmer and
drier due to downsloping from northerly winds of 15 to 20 kt.
These winds are expected to continue, likely limiting snow
accumulation at the surface. For the Icy Strait corridor, some
snow mixing in at sea level is possible with little to no
accumulation expected through the day.

Overall a wet and cool start to the week. For more on what to
expect for the upcoming holiday, see the long term discussion.

.LONG TERM...
For the start of the long term, conditions continue to remain
unsettled. Ensemble guidance is still having a hard time nailing
down specific details as well as deterministic for the start of
the long term. Right now, forecast guidance looks to be split into
two camps with the deterministic and ensemble guidance for the
Euro and Canadian coming together for a more consistent solution.
The other camp is the GFS and GEFS. The Euro/Canadian solution
looks to bring a low farther north and closer to the panhandle
which would increase the chances of seeing rain and snow showers.
The GFS solution looks to keep the low farther to the south and
would favor more of a dry outflow situation. Headed into
Wednesday, it looks like we dry out as high pressure in Canada
becomes the dominant pattern for SE AK. There are still some
disagreements between models on this solution so details could
change regarding exactly what locations dry out. By the time we
get to Thursday, models look to come into more agreement that
outflow will be the dominant weather for the panhandle as high
pressure over the Yukon and British Columbia firmly establishes
control. This will allow for temperatures to cool in locations
that are not usually windy during outflow events while places like
Cross Sound, Lynn Canal, Taku Inlet, and the Stikine River Delta
look to see winds increase. Our attention then turns to a low
pressure over the Alaska Peninsula for our next potential weather
maker. This system is expected to stay west of the area but could
tap into moisture from the south bringing in a significant amount
of moisture to the area. Depending on the location that this low
sets up around, conditions across the panhandle could range from
remaining dry due to high pressure, potentially a significant
rain/snow event, or just a significant rain event if the system is
far enough to the east to mix out the cold air near the surface
and bring mostly just rain. With the disagreement and uncertainty
in the models, this will need to be monitored throughout the week
for updates and changes.

&&

.AVIATION.../through 18z Tuesday/

Wide-ranging variety of flight conditions from VFR to IFR for the
SEAK panhandle this morning as a low in the northern Gulf
continues to gradually weaken, keeping on-shore persistent
precipitation across the area. The worst flight conditions
through the morning hours have remained near Yakutat and Haines,
with intermittent snow showers dropping visbys as low as 1/4SM at
times. For the southern panhandle, general low- end MVFR and VFR
flight conditions with CIGS AoA 2000ft, outside of Ketchikan
which is seeing CIGS between 1000 to 2000ft.

By Monday afternoon, expecting general MVFR to VFR flight
conditions to prevail with intermittent reductions in visbys down
to IFR/LIFR within showers. Worst flight conditions should remain
near Haines as snow showers are expected to continue with CIGS
AoB 1500ft and visbys as low as 1/2SM within the heaviest snow
showers. Yakutat will see showers become more intermittent, but
when showers do pass through, still expect significant reductions
in VIS and CIGS, Winds should remain around 10kts or less through
the afternoon, but can`t rule out isolated gusts up to 20kts.

By Monday night, shower activity is winding down across the
panhandle. The southern panhandle will be winding down across
most of the panhandle - though chances of showers (and the
potential for occasional IFR conditions) will hang on longer
across the Northern panhandle and Yakutat, as the weakening low
slowly steers northward. Some breaks in the clouds may be possible
across the parts of the southern and central panhandle, and the
chance of fog or freezing fog cannot be entirely discounted across
a few locations. By Tuesday chances of precipitation will begin
increasing across the southern panhandle as another system begins
working its way north.

No significant LLWS or icing concerns through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside: Lingering low pressure in the central gulf is still producing
near 20 kt winds out of the East for the northern gulf and 15 to
20 kt southwesterly winds for the southern gulf . These winds are
expected to gradually diminish and become mostly Southerly by
Monday afternoon as the gulf low diminishes away. As a new low
moves south of the area on Monday night into Tuesday, gulf winds
will continue to shift to SE and then E by Tuesday and will start
increasing to near 25 kt in the eastern gulf by Tuesday. Seas
mainly dominated by SW swell of around 6 to 7 ft (with a period of
12 to 14 sec) at the moment with wind wave on top of that giving
combined seas of 9 to 12 ft. Seas are expected to gradually
diminish down to 6 to 7 ft through Monday night as the SW swell
subsides. However, Seas will start building again late Monday
night into Tuesday as the increasing SE winds begin to build waves
from a southerly direction, especially Tuesday where seas could
reach 10 to 12 ft across a large area of the gulf.

Inside: Wind directions are mainly out of the SE and E through the
inner channels this Monday morning. The exception to that is
North/south channels north of Icy Strait which are have continued
to flow out of the north through the night. These northerly winds
are expected to diminish and switch to a southerly direction mid
day Monday. Winds across the inner channels are then expected to
stay light into Monday night before a general switch to a more
northerly direction is forecast for Tuesday as a storm system
moves south of the area. Seas are primarily wind driven waves up
to 3 to 4 ft and will generally stay that height or less through
Tuesday. Higher seas near ocean entrances tonight into early
Monday as SW swell up to 6 ft in the gulf gradually diminishes
into Monday night.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ319.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...STJ

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau