612
FXAK68 PAFC 251306
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
406 AM AKST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The fog around Anchorage and the Kenai Peninsula is much less
extensive this morning, but there are still areas of it,
especially along Knik Arm and the interior of the Kenai. With
increasing northerly flow at the surface today, this fog should
largely dissipate, though there could still be some patchy fog
near the front range of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains.

An upper level low in the eastern Interior extends into the Copper
River Basin this morning and has brought some more widespread
clouds there. This low will track westward through the day and
should allow those clouds the dissipate as it leaves the area.
Areas of low stratus and patchy is likely to persist, but areas
that do clear out will see temperatures plunge well below zero
tonight and Wednesday night.

A front is pushing into the western Gulf and across Kodiak
Island today. Temperatures for Kodiak look to remain in the mid
30s to lower 40s, keeping any precipitation that falls as rain.
Models have a good consensus on the timing of the front, but
differ somewhat on structure and if the front can spin up a low
along its trough axis. When the front likely arrives to
Southcentral Wednesday afternoon/evening, cross barrier flow and
downsloping in lee of the Chugach will help to keep precipitation
amounts light across the Anchorage Bowl. The windward slopes,
however, could see light snowfall accumulations with rain being
the predominant precipitation type for the Prince William Sound.
The front will then stall out along the coast as a potentially
more impactful system enters the Gulf for Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

There is little change to the forecast for today as high pressure
remains over the Bering Strait with a couple of weak surface lows
along the Aleutian Chain. Northeasterly offshore flow will
continue across Southwest Alaska today, gusty at times across the
Kuskokwim Delta, before shifting easterly on Wednesday. Winds
across the Kuskokwim Delta will diminish as winds flip, but will
increase in Bristol Bay through Kamishak Gap Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Across the Bering and Aleutians, the pattern
continues with small craft to gale force winds. Gales will
primarily be along the eastern Bering, Pribilof Islands and the
southern Alaska Peninsula today with small craft elsewhere.
Additionally, there is a pocket of storm force gusts north of
Unalaska but remains south of Saint George. Winds will diminish
overnight tonight. The pattern in the Bering/Aleutians will become
benign mid to late this week.

A pattern shift is expected tonight into Wednesday morning as an
elongated upper level low over the Interior moves east to west
across Mainland Alaska, pushing the high pressure ridging further
into Eastern Russia. This will allow a series of shortwaves and
fronts to eventually push north into Southwest Alaska from the
North Pacific. As such, conditions across Southwest Alaska will
become unsettled mid to late this week. A warmer air mass streams
north into Southwest, pushing temperatures from the 0s and 10s up
all the way into the 20s to low 30s for much of the region by
Thursday. A couple shortwave troughs will also move up from the
North Pacific into Southwest between Wednesday and Thursday,
ushering in a returning potential for precipitation. The best
chance for steady snow and rain will initially be focused over
northern Bristol Bay, where southerly flow will support upslope
enhancement near the Kilbucks. Areas of rain and snow could be a
little more widespread with the arrival of the second trough and
attendant low moving up into Southwest for Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Friday through Monday)...


A pattern shift to warmer temperatures and precipitation continues
to be seen in the long range models.

A ridge builds in the Pacific Ocean and slowly moves eastward
through the weekend. On Friday and Saturday, its orientation
in the Pacific Ocean results in southerly flow into the Aleutians
and a more southwesterly flow into Kodiak Island and
Southcentral. This brings warm air advection for the Aleutians
resulting in weekend precipitation falling as mostly rain and
strong southerly winds; especially through the bays and passes.
While a main low rotates well east of the Pribilofs in the Bering
Sea this weekend, numerous lows move over the Aleutians bringing
periods of heavy rainfall and winds to the area. As the high moves
eastward Sunday/Monday, the chances of storms reaching the
Mainland increases though confidence in their exact location and
strength through the Bering Sea is low at this time.

Southwesterly flow into Kodiak Island and Southcentral Alaska
persists this weekend with the greatest chance of precipitation
late Saturday into Monday. Right now, mesoscale disagreement
remains for timing and amounts of the heaviest precipitation from
weak lows moving through from the Pacific Ocean into the Gulf of
Alaska. However, this synoptic pattern indicates a warming trend
for Kodiak Island and Southcentral this weekend and into Prince
William Sound Monday as waves of moisture bring periods of periods
of heavy precipitation and gusty winds with warm air advection to
the region.

-Johnston

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC... Low stratus and patchy fog continue to be stubborn this
morning. However, unlike the past few mornings, visibilities are
not expected to be sustained 1/2 to 1/4 mile but rather more like
2 to 5 miles with isolated instances below 1 mile. Visibilities
will bounce around between VFR and IFR as patchy fog moves in and
out of the terminal this morning. Predominant VFR conditions
should return by late morning today. In addition, a weak front
will lift northward through the Gulf today with flow increasing in
the middle to upper levels out of the south and southeast with
surface winds increasing out of the north this evening. This
should result in VFR conditions with the fog fully dissipated
around the terminal.

&&

$$

296
FXAK67 PAJK 250639
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
939 PM AKST Mon Nov 24 2025

.UPDATE...to add the 06Z aviation discussion...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Showers of rain and snow gradually diminishing through Monday
night

- A low tracking toward Haida Gwaii Tuesday will turn generally
southerly winds across the panhandle more northerly by Tuesday
afternoon.

- Offshore flow is looking more likely for the middle of next
week bringing colder temperatures and clearing skies to most
of the panhandle.


&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday night/ Showers continue to plague
the panhandle, especially for the northern 2/3rd of the panhandle
and the NE gulf coast. Most areas have been mainly rain, but every
now and then a heavier shower will switch the precip type to snow
even down in the southern panhandle. The exceptions are the
Haines, Skagway, and Yakutat areas where snow has been the
dominate ptype. Overnight snow totals ranged from around 1 to 5
inches with the highest accumulations near Mud Bay near Haines and
near US customs on the Haines Highway.

Snow continues to be observed around Haines at the moment and the
winter weather advisory remains out until 6 pm this evening for
that area. These snow showers will likely continue through this
evening at least with a diminishing trend expected in precip rates
starting in the evening. There may be a few bursts of some
slightly higher snow rates for Haines (one this evening between 0
and 6z, and another weaker one about day break tomorrow, but
neither is expected to produce more then 1 to 2 inches of
additional snow accumulation. Highest amounts likely with the
burst this evening.). For other areas, Skagway and Yakutat will
likely still see some snow showers through Tuesday morning, but
accumulations are expected to only be an inch or two inches at
most. The rest of the panhandle will mainly see rain showers but I
can not rule out a mix with snow especially in heavier showers
overnight with little accumulation. Showers are expected to
diminish Tuesday as overall flow turns more easterly and
northerly and the low sustaining the showers weakens away.

Overall pattern changes Tuesday and Tuesday night as a second low
heads NE across the NE Pacific to be near Haida Gwaii and Dixon
Entrance by Tuesday night. At the same time surface high pressure
in the Yukon will be building to 1030 mb. This will result in a
developing offshore flow pattern with winds across the inner
channels becoming more easterly and northerly. Expect some
increasing northerly winds for Lynn Canal, Taku Inlet, and other
outflow areas starting as early as Tuesday afternoon. Speeds will
not be overly impressive though with 20 to 25 kt sustained winds
expected. Breaks in the cloud cover and drier weather will start
to become apparent across the northern panhandle late Tuesday
night as well. Meanwhile, the southern panhandle will still be in
close enough proximity to the low that cloud cover and
precipitation will still be a factor in the forecast. Temperatures
aloft and near the surface should be warm enough by this point
for the precip to mostly be rain with total rainfall amounts
around 0.25 Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...
By Wednesday high pressure across the Yukon and Northwest
Territory will begin to dominate southeast Alaskas weather, with
a decaying low in the southeastern gulf helping to pull cold dry
arctic air from the interior. Translating to impacts, as
precipitation precipitously decreases across the northern
Panhandle Wednesday, multiple days of outflow winds continue. Of
particular concern will be Lynn Canal and west-east inlets like
the Taku, Stikine and the Unuk. Cant forget about our friends up
in Yakutat, where the tight pressure gradient will also bring
elevated northerly winds to Disenchantment Bay. Current forecast
confidence reflects 20 to 30 knots of outflow winds, with several
hours of near-gale force winds likely sometime Thursday or Friday
as the surface pressure gradient reaches its full potential.
Thinking of freezing spray, coastal sea surface temperatures are
in the upper 40s with the inside in the low 40s; areas near major
glacial fed rivers are in the upper 30s. These water temperatures
combined with forecasted air temps in the low to mid 30s mean
limited freezing spray impacts with most concern in the upper
echelons of Lynn Canal and major river inlets. Main threat
continues to be elevated wave heights across the inside, with
significant wave heights of 6 to 8 ft for Lynn Canal Thursday or
Friday.

As mentioned previously a stout storm force low in the central
Pacific could tap into some deeper moisture, pushing this plume,
and a gale force front, toward the Panhandle by the weekend. If
cold air can remain in place along select areas of the inside, we
could see impactful snow in the central Panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 06Z Wednesday/...For the northern 2/3 of the
panhandle, as an atmospheric wave departs Southeast Alaska moving
to the north, CIG & VIS conditions will improve from the MVFR/IFR
flight category range into the VFR category from south to north
as we progress through the TAF period. Northerly outflow SFC winds
from a tightening north to south SFC pressure gradient will make
things a bit breezy starting around noon tomorrow for the extreme
northeast Panhandle, particularly areas around northern Lynn
Canal, like the PAGY & PAHN areas. An area of low pressure
approaches the far southern panhandle, moving southwest to
northeast. It looks like it will pass just to the south of the
panhandle, moving over the Haida Gwaii / Dixon Entrance area
Wednesday morning, just beyond our TAF timeframe. As it
approaches, it will begin to lower CIGs into the MVFR category &
increase SFC winds, via a tightening SFC pressure gradient, making
PAKT & PAKW a bit breezy, during the day on Tuesday through the
end of the period. LLWS values remain rather benign through the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Inside waters: Generally south to east winds around 15 kt or less
are the rule across the inner channels today. Exceptions include
Young Bay with 25 kt east winds, and Lynn Canal that is still
northerly as of 1 pm. The northerly winds in Lynn Canal should
turn around to the south sometime this afternoon or early evening
as northerly pressure gradients weaken. The southerly component
to the winds should last through early Tuesday before a low starts
to approach the Haida Gwaii and Dixon Entrance area Tuesday and
high pressure begins to build in the Yukon. At that point the
southerly winds will start to turn northerly with Lynn Canal, Taku
Inlet, and other outflow areas starting to see winds of 20 to 25
kt by Tuesday night and may reach 30 kt in Lynn Canal by Wed
night. Clarence Strait will likely stay SE until late Tuesday
night once the low near Haida Gwaii starts weakening. Seas mainly
around 3 to 4 ft today and are expected to stay around that height
through Tuesday. Outflow areas may see seas increase to 5 ft
Tuesday night once the winds start increasing.

Gulf Waters: Weakening low SW of Yakutat is bringing mostly
Southerly winds of 15 kt or less to the gulf waters except for
easterly winds near Cape Suckling and Icy Bay this afternoon.
Winds across the eastern gulf will be showing a shift in
directions from southerly to easterly through tonight as the NE
gulf low weakens and a new stronger low heads toward Haida Gwaii.
Winds will also be increasing east of 140W and south of 57N to 25
to 30 kt with gales to 40 kt likely out of Dixon Entrance across
the far southeastern gulf by Tuesday morning. That is as far as
they will top out before starting to decrease into Tuesday night
with most areas below 25 kt by early Wednesday morning. Seas are
generally around 6 ft with a diminishing SW swell of around 4 to 5
ft (period of around 10 sec). Generally expecting the seas to
remain around 6 to 7 ft tonight before they start building to
around 10 to 12 ft by Tuesday evening. This is a result of the
increasing winds from the low heading to Haida Gwaii kicking up
more wind waves from a SE direction. Expect the seas to remain
high into Tuesday night before gradually diminishing into
Wednesday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-661-662.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-642-663-664-671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...EAL

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