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512
FXAK69 PAFG 221204
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
304 AM AKST Sat Nov 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Snow continues in the Eastern Interior north of the Tok. Heavier
bands of snow amongst the more widespread light snow may lead to
locally higher snowfall totals. Snow diminishes Saturday night
through Sunday. Gusty northwesterly winds along the West Coast
continue to weaken through Saturday. Increasing pressure from the
West and Northwest will bring colder and drier conditions to
Northern Alaska early next week. There is potential for a warmer
and wetter pattern late next week.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Steadier snow continues through Saturday night. Some showers
remain early Sunday. Storm total snow is listed below.
- 6 to 12 inches of heavy snow in the White Mountains and
elevated terrain south of the Yukon Flats. A Winter Storm
Warning has been issued for heavy snow. The heaviest snow will
be north and east of Eagle Summit, especially near Circle and
Chalkyitsik.
- 2 to 4 inches in Fairbanks area (including Eielson), though
areas beneath heavier bands of snow could see 6+" similar to
the White Mountains.
- 1 to 3 inches from Delta to Nenana north/west to Bettles.
- Little to no snow accumulations from Tok south/east.
- Colder and drier conditions return next week.
- Temperatures fall to highs in the low teens to single digits
and lows in the negative teens to single digits by Tuesday.
- Clouds clear late Sunday into Monday. Temperatures decrease
further in valley locations under clear skies as stronger
temperature inversions develop.
- Increasing northeast winds Monday through next week. Areas of
blowing snow and low visibility with difficult travel conditions
over Dalton, Elliott, and Steese Highway Summits next week.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Showery snow and gusty northwesterly winds slowly diminish
Saturday.
- Isolated snow showers linger through Saturday. Accumulations
less than an inch.
- North-northwesterly winds along the coast with gusts 25 to 35
mph. Western Interior gusts 15 to 25 mph.
- Colder and drier conditions return next week.
- Temperatures fall from the 20s to single digits over the
weekend to the teens and single digits by Monday.
- Western Interior Valleys lows fall to the negative single
digits late Sunday into Monday.
- Winds shift east-northeast along the West Coast Sunday into
Monday and increase Monday into Wednesday. Easterly wind gusts
20 to 30 mph by Wednesday.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Areas of light snow continue on the Slope, Beaufort Sea Coast
and in the Brooks Range this weekend. Snow accumulations will be
around 1 to 3 inches with a couple of spots near 4 inches in
the Eastern Brooks Range and near Kaktovik through Sunday.
- Colder and drier conditions return next week.
- Temperatures fall from the teens to single digits to the single
digits to near 0 Monday along the coast.
- In the Brooks Range Valleys temperatures fall into the negative
teens and possibly the negative 20s.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
For Saturday morning through Monday night.
At the start of the forecast period, Saturday morning, a messy
trough sits over eastern Alaska and a more organized ridge builds
into the Bering Sea. This trough is composed of two main upper
level lows located near Kodiak Island and just east of the Brooks
Range in Canada, both around 515 decameters in strength and one
weaker upper level low over the Western Interior around 520
decameters in strength. A 526 decameter upper level high near
Point Barrow is strengthened by the ridge in the Bering Sea. The
low east of the Brooks Range is fueling snowfall across the
Eastern Interior. Bands of snow are moving from north to south,
bringing heavier snow to the White Mountains and elevated terrain
north and east of Fairbanks. The low in the Western Interior is
helping to support some of this snowfall too allowing some light
snow to reach as far west as the Upper Kuskokwim River. Individual
bands of snow embedded in this pattern may be strong enough to
over-perform and generate localized areas of more snow than
expected.
Another, stronger, upper level low around 506 decameters strong
moves east from the northwest Pacific to just south of the
Aleutians late Saturday through Sunday. This low cuts off the
ridge in the Bering Sea, creating a more distinct upper level high
near the Chukotsk Peninsula which combines with the high over the
North Slope into a 550 decameter upper level high over the Chukchi
Sea by Monday morning. This low south of the Aleutians becomes
less organized and allows several smaller lows and shortwaves to
rotate around it early next week. Confidence is low on the exact
timing and placement of these features but they should mostly
remain south of the Yukon Delta. The lows to the east weaken and
get pushed further east by this building high pressure allowing it
to dominate Northern Alaska, bringing colder, drier, and clearer
conditions to areas north of the Alaska Range through much of next
week.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For Tuesday through next Saturday.
At the start of the extended forecast period, Tuesday, a strong
upper level Arctic high pressure around 552 decameters sits over
the Chukchi Sea and a messy upper level low around 515 decameters
spins south of the Aleutians which will slowly weaken through the
week. These two features interact to generate gusty easterly flow
across the Interior and West Coast. Areas that recently received
snowfall may be vulnerable to periods of reduced visibility due to
blowing snow. This high brings colder, drier, and clearer
conditions through much of next week to the region.
Later next week, another low moves from the west across the North
Pacific and phases with the weakening low south of the Aleutians
Thursday. This creates a very amplified pattern Friday into next
weekend with a strong upper level low in the North Pacific and a
developing ridge in the northeastern Pacific stretching towards
the Arctic high which will have moved slowly east towards the
Eastern Arctic Coast. This highly amplified pattern could produce
a strong atmospheric river transporting moisture from as far south
as 20N towards Alaska. If that develops, then significantly
warmer and wetter conditions are possible across Northern Alaska
potentially bringing large amounts of wintry mix and rain to areas
of the Interior. Confidence is still low on the exact details of
this feature due to how far out it is, but there is good run to
run consistency in the models and relatively good ensemble
agreement. The biggest area of potential uncertainty is in how
this next low phases with the previous one and where exactly an
atmospheric river could develop. Further west solutions would be
more likely to bring rain to the Interior, but it is still unclear
on how this system will develop. Regardless it will still be
strong enough to bring significant warming and much more moisture
to the state.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ833-834.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ838-842.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-804>807-852-853-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-803.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-806-853-854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-817-854-857-858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850-857-858.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
&&
$$
Stokes
012
FXAK68 PAFC 221409
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
509 AM AKST Sat Nov 22 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Satellite imagery from early this morning shows Southcentral
sitting underneath an upper level trough with the remnants of what
used to be a significant surface low just east of Kodiak. An area
of snowfall is in the western part of Cook Inlet along the
weakening frontal boundary. With temperatures just a few degrees
below freezing, this is potentially setting up the atmosphere for
fog and/or stratus across the Cook Inlet region. All it needs is
the slightest clearing and fog will be in a hurry to form this
morning. Persistent low clouds and fog may become the main weather
story for today into Sunday near Cook Inlet and in the Susitna
Valley.
By Sunday there should be a noticeable cooling, drying, and
clearing trend for the region as the low continues to move
eastward and weak high pressure aloft edges into the area. This
general pattern should persist through Monday giving more seasonal
temperatures and dry weather.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 to 3: Today through Monday night)...
A broad longwave trough extends across the majority of mainland
Alaska, anchored by a broad surface low centered in the Gulf of
Alaska. To the west of the trough axis, cold air filters south
across Southwest Alaska and the eastern Bering Sea. Weak cyclonic
flow aloft is providing enough lift for light snow to continue
across the Kuskokwim Delta. Despite gusty winds along the coast,
the light nature of the precipitation is preventing blowing snow
from reducing visibility below three miles for any sustained
period of time. Snow will trend down through the morning hours as
drier air moves in aloft with a ridge building in over the Bering
Sea and cutting off over the northern Bering/Chukotka by this
evening. A weak front associated with the Gulf low will produce a
separate area of light snow for the Western Alaska Range and the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley that is more likely to persist through the
day and taper off tonight. New snow accumulations are not
expected to exceed about an inch, while Bristol Bay remains dry.
A North Pacific arrives south of the western Aleutians today,
pushing a front into the western and central Bering Sea tonight.
Its front brings storm force easterly winds to portions of the
western and central Aleutians this evening through tonight, with
winds in Adak and Atka gusting as high as 65 mph along with
moderate to heavy rain. Winds diminish on Sunday as the strongest
corridor of winds lifts north of the islands into the Bering Sea
and the parent low weakens. The front, however, lifts across the
eastern Aleutians, and then to the Alaska Peninsula by Sunday
night, bringing gale force winds. The increasing proximity of the
low to Southwest Alaska, along with high pressure shifting
northward into the Chukchi Sea will draw northeasterly, offshore
winds across Southwest Alaska by Sunday. Colder air from the
interior will cause temperatures to steadily drop, reaching into
the single digits by Sunday night for most inland locations.
Coastal Bristol Bay sees low temperatures in the teens.
By Monday, the front lifts into the eastern Bering Sea and crosses
the Pribilof Islands. With the exception of the Alaska Peninsula,
Southwest Alaska looks to remain mostly dry and skies may even
begin to clear out Monday into Monday night. Temperatures,
however, begin to rebound somewhat as winds shift more easterly
and the nearby front brings warmer air into the region.
Quesada
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Tuesday through Friday)...
Starting on Tuesday, a vertically stacked low and large cyclonic
circulation will be centered south of the Aleutians in a weakening
phase. Short-waves embedded within the circulation will track from
east to west from the western Gulf/Kodiak Island across the Alaska
Peninsula and Bristol Bay and continuing westward across the
southern bering Sea. None of the features look particularly
strong, so would expect areas of precipitation and wind with
typical winter- time impacts. Precipitation-type will be mainly
rain, with Bristol Bay being the only location cold enough to see
snow. The upper low will open up into a trough by Thursday
(Thanksgiving), causing winds and precipitation to diminish.
Meanwhile, a strong ridge in the Arctic will build southward over
the northern half of mainland Alaska. This looks far enough south
to block any short-waves from the Aleutian trough from reaching
interior SW AK or Southcentral AK. Thus, expect seasonably cool
and dry conditions for these areas Tuesday through Wednesday. A
short-wave will dig down the east side of the ridge on Wednesday,
across the Yukon and into the Copper River Basin. This will bring
marginally colder temperatures, though accompanying cloud cover
will likely limit temperature drops. This trough will force the
upper ridge to retreat back northward and allow a short-wave
trough to approach Southcentral on Thursday. Model agreement with
this feature is not great, but ensembles generally support this
idea. With a cold air mass in place over Southcentral, the most
likely outcome would be widespread light snow arriving sometime
Thanksgiving Day.
As we continue to Friday, model guidance is in excellent agreement
on amplification of the upper level flow and development of an
Atmospheric River. However, as would be expected this far out in
time, there is large spread in the location of the ridge/trough
and track of a leading surface low from the Pacific. This evolving
pattern does have good potential to bring higher impact weather
to southern Alaska, with strong winds, mixed precipitation-types,
and warming temperatures. Stay tuned as we monitor the location of
key features and identify the areas where the greatest impacts
are most likely.
-SEB
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Chances for snow continue to decrease this morning as a
low pressure system dissipates. Lingering low-level moisture and a
weakening wind flow in the lower half of the atmosphere will
likely result in low stratus remaining over the terminal through
the late morning, with ceilings expected to rise to VFR levels
afterwards. Winds become light and northerly by early Sunday
morning, potentially allowing for fog over the Knik Arm to drift
over the terminal and cause IFR conditions.
&&
$$
058
FXAK67 PAJK 221433
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
533 AM AKST Sat Nov 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Active shower pattern continues through the weekend.
- High uncertainty with next week`s forecast. One scenario would
continue the rain-showery pattern while another scenario would
give dry skies and colder-than-normal temps.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ through Saturday night / A weakening low east of
Kodiak Island persists through Saturday, while southwest to west
winds are widespread across the gulf and to the panhandle.
Onshore flow pattern will continue through the weekend with
upslope precipitation. Categorical or likely PoPs of showers
to the western coastal area, and main coast range, with the
potential for some minor rain shadowing effects on east side of
the slopes. Overall showers will be primarily liquid, although a
mix at high altitudes or more northern section of the Haines
Highway. Accumulations should be be on the light side a few inches
at most.
.LONG TERM...For the start of the long term, current forecast
guidance looks similar to yesterday with a low persisting in the
northern Gulf before weakening.
Beyond that, high pressure is expected to build over the Interior
and into the Yukon. Beyond this part of the forecast is where the
uncertainty ramps up.
With this high pressure setting up, colder air would be possible to
slip to the south. Current forecast guidance keeps most of this
colder air in the Yukon and away from the Coast Mountains.
GEFS and EURO ensemble guidance continues to still show great
disagreement, especially with the placement of the high as it
develops. The GEFS is the most aggressive in driving the high
pressure south, which would bring increase outflow and therefore,
sunny and cold weather. The EURO ENS is much more reserved and
keeps the high farther north, which creates a weaker outflow and
would allow for continued cloudy and rain-showery weather.
With the continued disagreement, the forecast is trending towards
the warmer and wetter solution. This will need to be watched
through the weekend for any changes.
&&
.AVIATION...Widespread showers continue across the panhandle this
morning and will generally persist through Saturday with
diminishing coverage and less potential for thunderstorms. While
VFR conditions are prevalent with more breaks in the southern
panhandle, CIGs have regularly been dropping AoB 2500 feet in
showers with VIS dropping below 6sm as well. In the far northern
panhandle, surface winds have diminished and precipitation rates
increased resulting in snow mixing down to the surface causing
greater VIS reductions. By mid to late morning a transition back
to primarily rain at sea level is expected with increased winds,
however by Saturday night these are expected to drop off again.
Therefore Saturday night into Sunday morning, any showers making
it to the far northern panhandle would likely result in more snow
mixing with rain, and thus more significant VIS restrictions.
There are no significant LLWS concerns through the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Outside Waters: A broad swath of southwesterly fresh winds (15 to
20 kts) will persist in the central gulf through the day. 15 to
18 ft wave heights with 15 ft of southwesterly swell at a 15
second period will follow through the central gulf before quickly
diminishing below 15 ft into Saturday. Onshore flow continues to
direct showers into the panhandle with the occasional lightning
strike along the outer coastal mountains. The diminishing trend in
the winds continues through Saturday, alongside wave heights
decreasing to 8 to 12 ft by Saturday night.
Inside Waters: Showers continue moving through the panhandle with
southwesterly onshore flow directing winds up through the
channels. Winds of 12 to 17 kts in N/S facing channels will be
diminishing through the day, becoming light to gentle breezes (4
to 10 kts) by Saturday night. 2 to 4 ft wave heights are expected
for the inner channels, with 10 to 15 ft wave heights for channel
entrances decreasing to below 10 ft by Saturday.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...GJS
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...Bezenek
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