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295
FXAK69 PAFG 031333
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
433 AM AKST Wed Dec 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of snow continue for the Interior this morning but will
end from west to east through the afternoon as a cold front pushes
southeast. Additional snow accumulations around 1 to 3 inches is
expected from Lake Minchumina to Eagle. After the snow ends this
afternoon/evening, skies will clear rapidly as dry air moves in
and temperatures will drop significantly tonight into tomorrow. By
Thursday morning, it will be difficult to find many places above 0
degrees across Northern Alaska, excluding the West Coast south of
the Seward Peninsula where it will be in the single digits.
Temperatures continue to drop through the weekend with Interior
Valleys and the North Slope bottoming out around -30F to -45F.
North-northeast wind also picks up in the Interior and West Coast
Saturday and Sunday with gusts potentially up to 50 mph across
the higher terrain resulting in very low wind chills.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Additional 1 to 3 inches of snow today from Lake Minchumina to
Eagle, rapid clearing this afternoon/evening.
- Temperatures drop dramatically tonight and tomorrow with most
locations below zero tomorrow.
- A cold trend continues through this weekend, under clear skies
temperatures likely drop to -30F to -45F (potentially -50F in
the coldest spots).
- Any clouds will limit how cold it gets and the highest chances
for clouds will be in the Southeast Interior/Upper Tanana Valley.
- North-northeast winds develop on Saturday and persist into
Sunday, if the valleys get wind, this will warm up temperatures
slightly. Either way, it will be cold with very cold wind
chills.
- In terms of wind, locations over 1000ft may gust upwards of 25
to 50 mph. Interior valleys (including Fairbanks) have a chance
to see wind gusts up to 30 mph IF the inversion breaks.
- This could be a significant wind event and end up being
impactful as it could lead to tree damage and power outages.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Lingering light snow in the Western Interior ends this afternoon
with clear skies and cold temperatures settling in.
- A cold trend continues through the weekend. Expect minimum
temperatures around or slightly below 0 along the coast and in
the teens to 30s below zero in the Interior Valleys.
- North-northeast winds increase this weekend and if these winds
can break through the inverted valleys, it will bump up
temperatures slightly, but wind chills would still be very cold.
East wind gusts may be up to 35 to 45 mph along the coast and
in the higher terrain.
- With temperatures below 0 and wind this strong, it could lead
to wind chills as low as -50F in some spots.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- A cooling trend early this week with areas of low stratus and
scattered snow showers east of Deadhorse ending this morning.
- Breezy conditions for the Beaufort Sea Coast and in the Brooks
Range can lead to visibility below 1 mile at times today. Wind
will be diminishing tonight.
- A front moves from the Western Arctic Coast to the Eastern
Arctic Coast between Thursday to Friday with areas of light snow
along the coast. Persistent onshore flow follows afterwards
which much colder temperatures this weekend.
- Expect temps in the negative teens along the coast with -20s
inland through Thursday night, then widespread temps near the -30s
with some -40F readings possible in the coldest locations this
weekend.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The big story is the arctic trough dipping southeast bringing much
colder and drier weather to Northern Alaska. Before we get there,
we`ll have to get through the rest of the snow today. There are a
few more shortwaves moving from southwest to northeast through the
Interior today bringing mostly light snow with a few pockets of
heavier snow possible. Underneath the heaviest snow, visibility
can get below 1 mile. The snow will be ending this morning in
Tanana and by about 4 PM in Fairbanks with light snow ending
during the evening and overnight from Delta Junction to the AlCan
Border. Interior Valleys may hold on to some moisture after the
front moves through leaving a chance for areas of stratus and fog
tonight. However, there is very dry air moving in, so any stratus
or fog will be short lived and mostly gone by tomorrow morning.
The initial shot of cold air provided by this front won`t be
anything too extreme, but it will be noticeable. Coming from high
temperatures in the mid 20s yesterday, much of the forecast area
will struggle to be above 0 by Thursday morning and the cooling
continues through the week and into the weekend.
As the arctic trough dips south, 850mb temperatures will be
dropping from the single digits below zero in the Southern
Interior to the teens and near 20 below zero by tonight. The
coldest of these temperatures will be east of Fairbanks. 850mb
temperatures this low supports surface temperatures around 20F to
40F below zero under clear skies and calm winds. In the Western
Interior and West Coast, 850mb temperatures will be around 5F to
10F below zero which would bring surface temperatures to the
single digits below zero south of the Yukon and teens to 20s below
zero north of the Yukon River. The North Slope will have surface
temperatures in the teens and 20s below as well.
Temperatures continue to crash this weekend with widespread 850mb
temps around -20F to -30F. This, under clear skies and calm winds,
would support valley temperatures in the 40s and even 50s below
zero. The caveat to this is, there will be a digging trough moving
over the state and into the Gulf, so there is a chance for some
cloud cover across the Interior, especially from Fairbanks east.
All of Western Alaska from Utqiagvik to McGrath westward should be
mostly clear. Therefore, the coldest temperatures may end up
being in the Western Alaska. That`s only if the clouds in the
Central and Eastern Interior materialize. One other very important
detail is, it`s going to get windy, especially over the terrain
of the Interior. It is uncertain whether there will be enough wind
to break the strong valley inversions, but with a strong area of
vorticity moving overhead, it may be enough to bring the valleys
some wind, limiting the temperatures. Nevertheless, wind and cold
would then bring wind chill into play and there may be several
locations with wind chills near or below -40F. In terms of wind
speeds, all of the Interior summits above 1000ft have a chance to
gust 25 to 50 mph Saturday into Sunday. Towards McGrath and along
the West Coast south of the Seward Peninsula, 40 to 50 mph wind
gusts are possible. This could become an impactful wind event.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Sunday through next Wednesday.
Sunday will be the end of the windy and cold weekend for most
areas, especially north and west of Fairbanks all the way to the
Yukon Delta. 850 mb winds may reach 80 knots over the Western
Interior, and some winds will likely mix all the way down to
valley floors. Very cold wind chills are expected with ambient
temperatures zero to 15 below in windy areas and in the 20s and
30s, possibly the 40s below in sheltered areas. East of Fairbanks,
more clouds are likely which will keep conditions moderated.
Windy, dry, and cold conditions look to continue through Wednesday
for all areas except the far southeast Interior, southeast of
Tok, where isolated snow showers will continue.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ824-829-832>835-837>850.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ825-826-830-851-852.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-806-817-853-854.
Gale Warning for PKZ802-851.
Gale Warning for PKZ803-852.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-816-817-850-851-853-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
Gale Warning for PKZ816.
Gale Warning for PKZ850.
&&
$$
Bianco
118
FXAK68 PAFC 030228
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
528 PM AKST Tue Dec 2 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Friday afternoon)...
While the worst conditions have largely ended for much of
Southcentral Alaska, several Winter Weather Advisories remain in
effect through 7 AM tomorrow morning:
* Along the Parks Highway from Houston north to Talkeetna: Periods
of light snow/freezing rain continue through tomorrow morning.
* Northern Copper Valley (Richardson Highway mile markers 150 to
200) and Northern Susitna Valley (north of Talkeetna): Up to 5
more inches of snow.
Overall, the forecast aligned pretty well with conditions observed
today. Freezing rain tends to be a borderline phenomenon that is
difficult to forecast, but forecast confidence was unusually high
with this event. There were a few areas where the temperature
forecast was a bit off (observed temperatures were lower than
forecast for Kenai Peninsula and higher than forecast in lower
Matanuska Valley), leading to a few areas where there was less
forecast lead time or where precipitation was more rain than
freezing rain. Still, the impacts seemed to line up fairly well
with expectations.
Looking ahead, another front moves northeastward up the Gulf
towards the Southcentral Mainland. Much of the precipitation will
be focused from Eastern Prince William Sound into the Copper River
Basin as rain/snow, but some precipitation could make it over the
mountains and into Western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and/or the
Lower Mat-Su. If this happens, there is the potential for another
light round of rain or freezing rain. The chance of rain or
freezing rain would be around 20-30% sometime tomorrow morning
through the early afternoon, though timing is uncertain.
Thursday will mark the transition day for Southcentral AK as we
move from this warm pattern featuring repeat freezing rain threats
to a much colder, drier pattern. Several model solutions are
generating light precipitation across a wide swatch of
Southcentral as a trough dropping down from the Arctic interacts
with the moisture in place from the pre-existing frontal zone.
Confidence is admittedly low for Thursday precip, but conditions
may align for a shot of snow for many areas before the intrusion
of significantly colder, drier air.
-Chen/Brown
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...
The strong low in the Bering is currently located south of the
Pribilof Islands. This low is bringing storm force winds in the
Pribilof Islands and gale force winds along the Kuskokwim Delta
coast. The low is also advecting warm air and moisture into the
Southwest Mainland. This warm air has allowed temperatures to warm
above freezing aloft while temperatures remain below freezing in
the much of Kuskokwim Delta and the lower Kuskokwim Valley.
However, the whole column of temperatures remained below freezing
along the southwest and west coast of the Kuskokwim Delta and
Nunivak Island. This, along with gusty winds is allowing for
blizzard conditions for these regions. Meanwhile, Bristol Bay is
warm enough for precipitation types to remain as rain. Gap
regions in the Eastern Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula are
seeing gusty storm force winds due to favorable wind directions
(southeasterly).
By Wednesday, the low will be weakening, but gusty winds in the
Bering and precipitation in Bristol Bay will continue.
Precipitation chances in the Kuskokwim Delta will significantly
decrease, but some snow/freezing rain showers may still be
possible. Due to this chance, the Ice Storm Warning is still in
effect until 9 AM Wednesday. By Thursday, both winds and
precipitation chances will decrease as a drier and cold air mass
moves in from the north. This Arctic air mass will quickly drop
temperatures across Southwest Alaska, with lows reaching the
single digits in the Kuskokwim Delta and the teens in Bristol Bay
by Thursday night. Also, winds will turn northeasterly. By
Friday, pressure gradients will tighten in the Kuskokwim Delta,
leading to an increase in wind speeds. Looking ahead to the
weekend, this air mass will further infiltrate as an Arctic Low
moves into Southwest Alaska. Winds will become gusty in the
Kuskokwim Delta with temperatures falling below zero. Due to the
combination of gusty winds and below zero temperatures, extreme
freezing spray is possible from Nunivak Island north and west to
Cape Newenham. A Marine Weather Statement has been issued with
more details on this potential.
-JAR
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Friday through Monday)...
Model differences in the long term forecast continue to decrease
forecast confidence, beginning over the weekend and into early
next week. Greatest confidence is in the arrival of an arctic air
mass dropping southward into Southwest and Southcentral Alaska
through the long term period. Gusty northeasterly winds will
accompany the colder air mass with potential for wind chills well
below zero, especially across the Kuskokwim Delta. Winds offshore
of the Kuskokwim Delta coast may also pose a threat of extreme
freezing spray for mariners near the ice edge.
Uncertainty increases more substantially for the Southcentral
forecast. A developing area of low pressure will take shape over
the weekend, though where exactly the low deepens is in question.
A low across the northern Gulf and closer to the coast will
certainly equate to increasing snow for coastal mountains and even
interior Southcentral. A low further from the coast and possibly
further east, will mean drier conditions with colder low
temperatures. For now, the signal is for below normal temperatures
across both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska in the long term.
-BL
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Low-level wind shear will continue with light northerlies
near the surface and southeasterly winds aloft until a weak
Turnagain Arm wind brings light southeasterly winds at the surface
into the terminal this evening. Winds could gust as high as 20
knots but could be quite variable/intermittent. Winds relax to
light out of the north again by early Wednesday morning. Ceilings
generally remain VFR above 5000 ft through Wednesday morning. At
that point, chances for light precipitation return.
Temperatures cool back below freezing tonight, meaning
precipitation would likely be in the form of another round of
freezing rain, with some potential for light snow instead.
Accumulations are likely to be limited to a light glaze. Patchy
fog is also possible tonight, which could drop ceilings/visibility
to IFR. Chances for freezing rain last into the day on Wednesday,
with more widespread fog potential and therefore increasing
chances for IFR cigs/vsby by Wednesday evening.
Quesada
&&
$$
963
FXAK67 PAJK 030703 AAA
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1003 PM AKST Tue Dec 2 2025
.Evening and 06z Aviation Update...
No major changes to ongoing forecast this evening as front
continues is trek into the coast, overspreading light
precipitation and low clouds across majority of the panhandle.
Light precip will continue through the overnight period through
much of Wednesday as front pushes inland with overnight low
temperatures remaining steady in the upper 30s to low 40s at sea
level. Winds through tonight will be around 5 mph to 15 mph across
the panhandle, outside of Haines and Skagway which will see
sustained winds around 25mph with wind gusts around 35mph, but
expecting those to slowly diminish into Wednesday morning.
&&
.AVIATION.../through Wednesday evening/
Wide variety of flight conditions across the panhandle this
evening, ranging from isolated VFR & IFR to predominate MVFR with
CIGS AoB 5000ft and visbys between 3 to 6SM within rain and mist.
Through Tuesday night, flight conditions will continue to worsen
as front pushes through the panhandle with high confidence of MVFR
to IFR flight conditions with CIGS AoB 2500ft and visbys around 2
to 4SM by 15z Wednesday morning, persisting through the
afternoon. Winds should remain around 10 kts or less overnight,
except for Haines and Skagway which will to see increased winds up
to 20kts and gusts up to 30kts gradually diminish into Wednesday
morning. Widespread precipitation comes to an end by Wednesday
evening, however again not expecting much improvement in flight
conditions throughout the TAF period.
SE-ly to S LLWS around 30kts around 2k ft ongoing as front pushes
into the coast, as verified by VAD profile winds from PACG.
Anticipating this to continue to push eastward across the
panhandle through the night, with strongest LLWS near 30kts
reaching Petersburg, Klawock, Wrangell, and Ketchikan by 09z to
12z Wednesday morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 343 PM AKST Tue Dec 2 2025...
SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- An incoming front is moving into the panhandle this afternoon
and will track through the area tonight.
- This front will bring mainly rain, some increased wind speeds,
and continued warmer-than-normal temperatures that will last
through Thursday.
- Late this week into next weekend, long range models are still
hinting at a weather pattern that has been known to produce
heavy snow. High uncertainty at this time but worth watching
closely.
SHORT TERM.../through Thursday night/...
A passing front tonight is a big character in the early parts of
short term weather story. This quick-moving front will track
through tonight, bringing rain and brief elevated wind speeds.
Total rain amounts tonight will be around a half inch or less, so
not much by SE AK standards.
Continued onshore flow will keep the rainy and cloudy weather in
place over the panhandle. Rainfall amounts tomorrow will be even
lighter than tonight, with most areas receiving less than a half
inch. Light rain lingers into Thursday but the overall trend is
diminishing rain for Thursday.
Overland wind speeds may pick up to around 10 to 20 mph as the
front pushes through. But once the front clears your area, wind
speeds will calm back down and stay on the lighter side through
Thursday.
LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/...
On Friday while one system will likely be passing over the south,
another low pressure will move into the NE gulf with a frontal
trough developing and extending over the northern inner channels.
Meanwhile on the north side of this front, much colder air will
push southward into the area from interior Alaska and Canada,
causing snow levels to steadily fall Friday night through the
weekend across the north. This is looking to bring potential for
significant snowfall to Yakutat, Haines, and Skagway on Saturday
and continuing Sunday. As cold temperatures push southward going
into Sunday, snow levels will fall to sea level across the Icy
Strait area and Juneau. This will cause a change over from rain to
snow with the first significant accumulations of the season in
these areas. Locations like out the road in Juneau will see more
snow than downtown with this type of pattern.
Ensemble models show at least a 20% probability of 24 hour
accumulations exceeding 12 inches, however these models currently
have a warm bias and actual temperatures are likely to be colder.
Our official forecast is trending colder with temps, but expect
them to be pushed colder still with subsequent updates.
Operational models favored for this forecast package were the 12z
GFS and Canadian.
Looking ahead Sunday and Monday, additional low pressure systems
move in while cold air under northerly outflow continues across
the north. This pattern would lead to back to back snowfall events
across the north and central panhandle. Stay tuned to updates
over the coming days on these potentially impactful weather
events, a Special Weather Statement has been issued.
MARINE...
Outside Waters: A front moves in from the west towards the
panhandle tonight through Wednesday morning, bringing a
southeasterly fresh to strong breeze (17 to 27 kt) as the front
moves eastward across the Gulf, with easterly winds up to near
gale (28 to 32 kt) near Cape St Elias later tonight as the front
moves into the NE Gulf coastline. After the front moves through
into tomorrow morning, winds will overall decrease and switch to a
more west to southwesterly direction as onshore flow continues.
Winds continue to diminish into Wednesday night as the surface
ridging develops in the Gulf with winds largely remaining below 15
kt in the Gulf into Thursday ahead of the next low moving into
the Gulf. Seas predominantly 9 to 12 ft tonight into Wednesday,
subsiding Wednesday to between 7 and 9 ft by Thursday.
Inner Channels: Frontal passage over the panhandle tonight
through tomorrow morning will bring southerly to southeasterly
moderate to fresh breezes (15 to 21 kt), with some areas seeing a
brief increase to strong breezes (22 to 26 kt), across the inner
channels as the front passes from W to E. The areas that will see
winds at a strong breeze tonight will be in northern Lynn Canal as
the pressure gradient stays strengthened, from near Point Fanshaw
up to Grave Point as surface ridging strengthens up Stephens
Passage as the front moves in, and Clarence Strait by late tonight
into tomorrow morning. Winds will quickly diminish following the
front even as onshore flow continues, with predominantly a
moderate breeze (11 to 16 kt) across the inner channels by
tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. Stephens Passage, northern
Lynn Canal and near Point Couverden are expected to stay a bit
stronger with staying at a fresh breeze for longer into tomorrow,
before diminishing as well into tomorrow night. Winds continue
this diminishing trend across the inner channels tomorrow night
into Thursday as ridging sets up in the Gulf.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-034-036-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM...Ferrin
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...Contino
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