504
FXAK68 PAFC 221318
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
418 AM AKST Sat Feb 22 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Despite several systems bringing unsettled weather to the Gulf,
the forecast for much of inland Southcentral looks to remain
relatively quiet this weekend. A low lifting up along the eastern
Gulf has allowed for some scattered showers over the northern
Gulf. Models have this low merging with with another system
lifting north out of the North Pacific later today. At the
surface, a split low looks to form with the northern low moving
towards Prince William Sound and the southern low moving towards
the southern Kenai Peninsula. Both lows look to just wash out as
they try to move inland on Sunday. With low pressure continuing to
reestablish over the Gulf, the Gulf coastal areas of Kodiak
Island, Kenai Peninsula, and the Prince William Sound area will
continue to see scattered rain showers for lower elevations and
snow for higher elevations of the coastal mountains. Precipitation
should increase in coverage and intensity Sunday night into
Monday as another low works its way up the Gulf side of the AKPEN.
Models have come into much better agreement with this system
through Sunday, but confidence quickly decreases Monday as models
each want to take the upper low on a different track. Depending on
the track, the western Kenai up through the Mat-Su Valley could
see a little precipitation...or not much of anything.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

It`s another very quiet morning across much of the Bering Sea and
Southwest Alaska. The prevailing pattern continues to feature very
weak flow from the surface to the upper levels, with a couple weak
lows drifting slowly across parts of the outlook area. One of
these lows is now skirting north of the western Aleutians, where
scattered snow showers are moving into the Chain at times. Out
closer to Southwest, a surface low sitting south of Kodiak is
beginning to interact with a small upper low moving up along the
Alaska Peninsula. This interaction is supporting areas of light
rain and snow across parts of Bristol Bay this morning. A few
spots south of King Salmon have dropped down near the freezing
mark, and this may be resulting in localized areas of freezing
rain/drizzle. However, precipitation across this region has
remained very light, and no measurable ice accumulation is
expected through early this afternoon as these bands of mixed
precipitation begin to dissipate.

Little change to the forecast has been made for the rest of the
weekend into early next week. The low in the western Bering will
continue to head slowly northeast through Monday, spreading areas
of snow showers east along the Aleutian Chain and eventually up
into the Pribilofs. Across Southwest, areas of light rain and snow
will dissipate by this evening as the small upper low moving up
into Bristol Bay begins to shear apart and move off into the
northern Gulf. This will allow an area of weak upper level ridging
to build over Southwest from Sunday into Monday, with some
clearing skies even possible away from the coastline. Weak
northerly flow coupled with the possible clearing out of low
clouds should yield a slow cooling trend across Southwest through
early next week. High temperatures will drop from the seasonably
warm 20s to upper 30s back down to the 10s and 20s for all but the
AKPen by Monday afternoon.

-AS

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Tuesday through Friday.

A broad upper level low stretches across the Bering, with the
convoluted flow pattern due to shortwaves rotating through the
system becomes smoother by the end of the forecast period. These
shortwaves briefly flatten a building ridge across Western Canada
into Interior Alaska through Wednesday. A couple of low centers
aloft slip over the Bering through the week, supporting active
weather across the region. A pair of Eastern North Pacific lows
bring weather across Southcentral Alaska throughout the forecast
period. A well developed North Pacific low will increase the
weather intensity over the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula by the
end of the week.

Some upper disturbances drive areas of rain, rain and snow or
snow over the open Bering through Friday. In the East, a moderate
low brings widespread rain from the AKPEN across Kodiak Island on
Tuesday, and extending over the Southcentral coast with more
moderate precipitation on Wednesday, and continuing through
Friday. Some areas of snow will occur inland and over higher
elevations. This low will dissipates Thursday. A second well
developed North Pacific low spreads snow up to the Pribilofs and
Northern Bering Thursday, changing to locally moderate rain and
gusty winds from the Central Aleutians into the AKPEN on Friday.

- Kutz

&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist at
the terminal. As a Gulf low approaches Southcentral, it is
possible for ceilings to drop below 5000 ft Saturday afternoon.
There is a chance of snow flurries beginning Saturday evening, but
any significant precipitation will be unlikely to make it over
the mountains.

&&


$$

460
FXAK67 PAJK 221302
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
402 AM AKST Sat Feb 22 2025

.UPDATE...Updated the aviation section to include the 12z TAF
issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Another front and associated low is moving north this
afternoon bringing strong winds and rain to the Inner Channels.
As of the time of writing, places across the southern panhandle
have started to report rain as well as some gusty winds as the
front moves over. With warm temperatures across the area as well
as this storm originating from farther south, any precipitation
that does fall is expected to remain as rain with the exception
locations at elevation which could see some snow accumulations. As
this system moves into the gulf, another front wrapping around
the low will move into the area Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night. This will bring a reinforcing shot of winds and rain to the
area with the heaviest precipitation expected across the southern
panhandle.

.LONG TERM...Continued active pattern for the foreseeable future
(essentially until the end of next week) with multiple shortwaves
troughs and ridges moving over the eastern gulf, resulting in
multiple systems with small breaks in between. Whether good news
or bad, precipitation type looks to stay predominantly rain for
the sea level areas, with upper elevation roads in the northern
panhandle at risk of some snow development.

Sunday through Monday will see a system move up from the south,
bringing moderate to fresh breezes from the southeast and light to
occasionally moderate rainfall. No changes were made to the QPF
forecast, and minor changes were made to the marine forecast, mainly
to lower wind speeds in areas which are sheltered to a SE wind.
Monday night sees a transient ridge move over the panhandle,
bringing lighter winds and some fog potential. Kept fog chances over
land areas in the northern half of the panhandle as confidence is
not high on lower wind speeds over marine waters. It may very well
develop as a low stratus deck instead of proper fog.

Tuesday into Wednesday sees a possibly more impactful system moving
in from the south. Currently, the main source of uncertainty comes
from aloft directing flow, which seems to be bimodal in nature. The
first, more likely solution at around 60%, sees the directing flow
towards the southern panhandle. The second, directs the energy south
of the panhandle and toward Haida Gwaii. NAEFS ensemble guidance
with respect to climatology has surface winds around the 90th
percentile, and EPS EFI guidance has roughly 60% chance of seeing a
wind gust event greater than 60 mph in the southern panhandle. While
this is mainly focused over the marine areas, such as southern
Clarence Strait and Dixon Entrance, will continue to monitor the
potential going forward. Similarly for precipitation, the more
likely solution has higher rain totals at around 1.0-2.5 inches in a
24 hour period. &&

.AVIATION...From the overnight, the Juneau area had some clearer
skies and light winds, which allowed for fog to develop near the
airport, in the valley, and near downtown. Reports were down to
1/4SM and a CIG of 200 feet.

Elsewhere around the panhandle, it was a quiet night with high-end
MVFR to VFR conditions.

Going forward, the next low pressure center will track north through
the eastern gulf. As it does, it will bring MVFR conditions to the
area from south to north. Early this morning, MVFR conditions are
already being reported at PAKW and PAKT. CIGs are down to 1500
feet, at worst, and VIS is down to 3 miles at times.

Weather like that will track north, making it to the Icy Strait area
by around 1800z Saturday. LLWS is also a high chance of showing up
again today for mainly Icy Strait and south again.


&&

.MARINE...A gale force front continues to work northward this afternoon
bringing gusty winds and increased seas to the Inner Channels as
well as the outer coast waters. Combined seas along the outer coast
are expected to remain in the 10-15 ft range although an area of
larger seas could be possible with the strongest winds. For the
Inner Channels, passages that are oriented more North to South will
have higher seas with the front passing through. East to West will
have lower seas but could still see some significant seas,
especially for places like Cross Sound.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM AKST this afternoon
for AKZ330.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-661-662-664.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031>036-053-642>644-651-652-
663-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...SF


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