990
FXAK68 PAFC 250148
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
448 PM AKST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Satellite imagery this afternoon reveals the fog bank that has
been plaguing the Cook Inlet region and northward up to the
Susitna Valley has redeveloped, though is more patchy in nature
than yesterday and is accompanied by areas of low stratus.
Relatively drier air (via a light north to north-northeast wind)
has been trying to advect southward across this stretch of
Southcentral, and has kept much of the fog from becoming
widespread. The MOS guidance is in solid agreement with keeping at
least patchy fog around through Tuesday morning. Synoptically
speaking, there is little in the way of anything in the next 12-18
hours to completely eliminate fog from the forecast. The
combination of residual moisture from recent snowfall and light
winds mixing this moisture from the ground to just off the surface
is one piece of a prime fog setup. There ideally needs to be a
big weather player with strong enough forcing to shut off the fog
machine.

The 500 mb flow late Tuesday becomes increasingly difluent in
nature downstream of a digging trough in advance of a front
pushing into the western Gulf and across Kodiak Island Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. The front does not look to be too
terribly impactful, with only small craft sustained winds up to
borderline gale force wind gusts. Temperatures for Kodiak also
look to remain in the mid to upper 30s, keeping any precipitation
that falls in the form of rain. Models have a good consensus on
the timing of the front, but differ somewhat on structure and if
the front can spin up a low along its trough axis. When the front
likely arrives to Southcentral Wednesday afternoon/evening, cross
barrier flow and downsloping in lee of the Chugach will help to
keep precipitation amounts light across the Anchorage Bowl. The
windward slopes, however, could see light snowfall accumulations
with rain being the predominant precipitation type for the Prince
William Sound. The front will then stall out along the coast as a
potentially more impactful system enters the western Gulf and
moves closer to Kodiak Island.

-AM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Thursday)...

The overall setup across the Bering Sea is little changed compared
to yesterday, with a strong blocking high still centered near the
Bering Strait this afternoon. This blocking regime is preventing
any systems from moving up into the region from Kamchatka or the
North Pacific, resulting in a fairly stagnant pattern across the
Bering and Southwest. Much of the region continues to sit within a
swath of easterly flow between a stalled out low drifting near
the western Aleutians and the strong cutoff ridge presiding over
much of the Chukchi Sea and Northeast Russia. A wavy frontal zone
now extends from the weakening low west of Adak out to the south
of the AKPen, and a new low has recently developed along this
front a ways to the south of Sand Point. This low will become a
key player in the forecast over the next 24 hours or so as it
heads northwest into the Bering. Across Southwest, an upper level
shortwave is moving offshore into the eastern Bering Sea near the
Kuskokwim Delta. The low to mid cloud cover that was prevalent
this morning is clearing out behind this feature as drier air
filters in and as northeast winds continue to steadily trend
upwards.

In terms of the near term outlook, the forecast for the next day
or two remains well on track with little change to expectations
through Tuesday. As noted above, the most impactful conditions
across the outlook area will follow along the new low as it arcs
north and west into the southern Bering between tonight and
Tuesday night. A pocket of gale force winds with storm force gusts
will move in tandem with the low as it enhances the north-south
gradient in place across the Bering/Aleutians, first reaching the
southern AKPen and eastern Bering later tonight into Tuesday
morning. The low itself looks slightly less impressive compared to
some model projections from yesterday, but still sufficiently
intense to cause a considerable spike in winds as it crosses into
the Bering near Akutan. This will be most noticeable where winds
funnel through gaps near False Pass and Cold Bay, where a few
gusts to around 55 to 65 mph are likely early on Tuesday morning
as the low passes to the west.

Later in the day on Tuesday, south winds gusting up to 40 mph
will be possible as pressure rises behind the low passage move up
into Unalaska. Gale force winds will then progress into the
central Bering and Pribilofs as the low continues west by Tuesday
afternoon. The low will begin to rapidly weaken Tuesday night as
it curves back south into the central Aleutians, leaving behind a
much more disorganized, showery pattern along with weak winds that
will persist across the Bering and Aleutians through Thanksgiving
Day.

For Southwest, conditions will remain cooler and calmer for the
first half of the week, but will begin to turn more unsettled
towards Wednesday and Thursday. Easterly, offshore winds will peak
on Tuesday as the compact low moves up into the southern Bering,
but will continue to some extent through midweek as an offshore
pressure gradient persists. A pattern change will begin from
Wednesday to Thursday as the blocking high to the north begins to
break down and as southerly flow begins to pick up between the
messy longwave trough over the Bering and a new ridge axis
developing over the eastern Mainland. This will result in a
warmer air mass streaming north into Southwest, pushing
temperatures from the 0s and 10s up all the way into the 20s to
low 30s for much of the region by Thursday. A couple shortwave
troughs will also move up from the North Pacific into Southwest
between Wednesday and Thursday, ushering in a returning potential
for precipitation. The best chance for steady snow and rain will
initially be focused over northern Bristol Bay, where southerly
flow will support upslope enhancement near the Kilbucks. Areas of
rain and snow could be a little more widespread with the arrival
of the second trough and attendant low moving up into Southwest
for Thanksgiving Day.

-AS

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through Sunday)...

A pattern shift to warmer temperatures and precipitation continues
to be seen in the long range models.

A ridge builds in the Pacific Ocean and slowly moves eastward
through the weekend. On Friday and Saturday, its orientation
in the Pacific Ocean results in southerly flow into the Aleutians
and a more southwesterly flow into Kodiak Island and
Southcentral. This brings warm air advection for the Aleutians
resulting in weekend precipitation falling as mostly rain and
strong southerly winds; especially through the bays and passes.
While a main low rotates well east of the Pribilofs in the Bering
Sea this weekend, numerous lows move over the Aleutians bringing
periods of heavy rainfall and winds to the area. As the high moves
eastward Sunday/Monday, the chances of storms reaching the
Mainland increases though confidence in their exact location and
strength through the Bering Sea is low at this time.

Southwesterly flow into Kodiak Island and Southcentral Alaska
persists this weekend with the greatest chance of precipitation
late Saturday into Monday. Right now, mesoscale disagreement
remains for timing and amounts of the heaviest precipitation from
weak lows moving through from the Pacific Ocean into the Gulf of
Alaska. However, this synoptic pattern indicates a warming trend
for Kodiak Island and Southcentral this weekend and into Prince
William Sound Monday as waves of moisture bring periods of periods
of heavy precipitation and gusty winds with warm air advection to
the region.

-Johnston


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Dry air continues to mix out the fog this afternoon,
though radiation fog developing on Knik Arm continues to be a
challenge for the TAF forecast. While it may mix out this
afternoon and evening, it`s somewhat likely it will develop again
overnight due to little change in the overall pattern coupled with
cold temperatures over the relatively warmer, ice free water. We
will get a pattern change on Tuesday with increased cloud
coverage as a weak front lifts into the Gulf. This should allow
for VFR conditions to return after sunrise on Tuesday.

&&


$$

296
FXAK67 PAJK 250639
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
939 PM AKST Mon Nov 24 2025

.UPDATE...to add the 06Z aviation discussion...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Showers of rain and snow gradually diminishing through Monday
night

- A low tracking toward Haida Gwaii Tuesday will turn generally
southerly winds across the panhandle more northerly by Tuesday
afternoon.

- Offshore flow is looking more likely for the middle of next
week bringing colder temperatures and clearing skies to most
of the panhandle.


&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday night/ Showers continue to plague
the panhandle, especially for the northern 2/3rd of the panhandle
and the NE gulf coast. Most areas have been mainly rain, but every
now and then a heavier shower will switch the precip type to snow
even down in the southern panhandle. The exceptions are the
Haines, Skagway, and Yakutat areas where snow has been the
dominate ptype. Overnight snow totals ranged from around 1 to 5
inches with the highest accumulations near Mud Bay near Haines and
near US customs on the Haines Highway.

Snow continues to be observed around Haines at the moment and the
winter weather advisory remains out until 6 pm this evening for
that area. These snow showers will likely continue through this
evening at least with a diminishing trend expected in precip rates
starting in the evening. There may be a few bursts of some
slightly higher snow rates for Haines (one this evening between 0
and 6z, and another weaker one about day break tomorrow, but
neither is expected to produce more then 1 to 2 inches of
additional snow accumulation. Highest amounts likely with the
burst this evening.). For other areas, Skagway and Yakutat will
likely still see some snow showers through Tuesday morning, but
accumulations are expected to only be an inch or two inches at
most. The rest of the panhandle will mainly see rain showers but I
can not rule out a mix with snow especially in heavier showers
overnight with little accumulation. Showers are expected to
diminish Tuesday as overall flow turns more easterly and
northerly and the low sustaining the showers weakens away.

Overall pattern changes Tuesday and Tuesday night as a second low
heads NE across the NE Pacific to be near Haida Gwaii and Dixon
Entrance by Tuesday night. At the same time surface high pressure
in the Yukon will be building to 1030 mb. This will result in a
developing offshore flow pattern with winds across the inner
channels becoming more easterly and northerly. Expect some
increasing northerly winds for Lynn Canal, Taku Inlet, and other
outflow areas starting as early as Tuesday afternoon. Speeds will
not be overly impressive though with 20 to 25 kt sustained winds
expected. Breaks in the cloud cover and drier weather will start
to become apparent across the northern panhandle late Tuesday
night as well. Meanwhile, the southern panhandle will still be in
close enough proximity to the low that cloud cover and
precipitation will still be a factor in the forecast. Temperatures
aloft and near the surface should be warm enough by this point
for the precip to mostly be rain with total rainfall amounts
around 0.25 Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...
By Wednesday high pressure across the Yukon and Northwest
Territory will begin to dominate southeast Alaskas weather, with
a decaying low in the southeastern gulf helping to pull cold dry
arctic air from the interior. Translating to impacts, as
precipitation precipitously decreases across the northern
Panhandle Wednesday, multiple days of outflow winds continue. Of
particular concern will be Lynn Canal and west-east inlets like
the Taku, Stikine and the Unuk. Cant forget about our friends up
in Yakutat, where the tight pressure gradient will also bring
elevated northerly winds to Disenchantment Bay. Current forecast
confidence reflects 20 to 30 knots of outflow winds, with several
hours of near-gale force winds likely sometime Thursday or Friday
as the surface pressure gradient reaches its full potential.
Thinking of freezing spray, coastal sea surface temperatures are
in the upper 40s with the inside in the low 40s; areas near major
glacial fed rivers are in the upper 30s. These water temperatures
combined with forecasted air temps in the low to mid 30s mean
limited freezing spray impacts with most concern in the upper
echelons of Lynn Canal and major river inlets. Main threat
continues to be elevated wave heights across the inside, with
significant wave heights of 6 to 8 ft for Lynn Canal Thursday or
Friday.

As mentioned previously a stout storm force low in the central
Pacific could tap into some deeper moisture, pushing this plume,
and a gale force front, toward the Panhandle by the weekend. If
cold air can remain in place along select areas of the inside, we
could see impactful snow in the central Panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 06Z Wednesday/...For the northern 2/3 of the
panhandle, as an atmospheric wave departs Southeast Alaska moving
to the north, CIG & VIS conditions will improve from the MVFR/IFR
flight category range into the VFR category from south to north
as we progress through the TAF period. Northerly outflow SFC winds
from a tightening north to south SFC pressure gradient will make
things a bit breezy starting around noon tomorrow for the extreme
northeast Panhandle, particularly areas around northern Lynn
Canal, like the PAGY & PAHN areas. An area of low pressure
approaches the far southern panhandle, moving southwest to
northeast. It looks like it will pass just to the south of the
panhandle, moving over the Haida Gwaii / Dixon Entrance area
Wednesday morning, just beyond our TAF timeframe. As it
approaches, it will begin to lower CIGs into the MVFR category &
increase SFC winds, via a tightening SFC pressure gradient, making
PAKT & PAKW a bit breezy, during the day on Tuesday through the
end of the period. LLWS values remain rather benign through the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Inside waters: Generally south to east winds around 15 kt or less
are the rule across the inner channels today. Exceptions include
Young Bay with 25 kt east winds, and Lynn Canal that is still
northerly as of 1 pm. The northerly winds in Lynn Canal should
turn around to the south sometime this afternoon or early evening
as northerly pressure gradients weaken. The southerly component
to the winds should last through early Tuesday before a low starts
to approach the Haida Gwaii and Dixon Entrance area Tuesday and
high pressure begins to build in the Yukon. At that point the
southerly winds will start to turn northerly with Lynn Canal, Taku
Inlet, and other outflow areas starting to see winds of 20 to 25
kt by Tuesday night and may reach 30 kt in Lynn Canal by Wed
night. Clarence Strait will likely stay SE until late Tuesday
night once the low near Haida Gwaii starts weakening. Seas mainly
around 3 to 4 ft today and are expected to stay around that height
through Tuesday. Outflow areas may see seas increase to 5 ft
Tuesday night once the winds start increasing.

Gulf Waters: Weakening low SW of Yakutat is bringing mostly
Southerly winds of 15 kt or less to the gulf waters except for
easterly winds near Cape Suckling and Icy Bay this afternoon.
Winds across the eastern gulf will be showing a shift in
directions from southerly to easterly through tonight as the NE
gulf low weakens and a new stronger low heads toward Haida Gwaii.
Winds will also be increasing east of 140W and south of 57N to 25
to 30 kt with gales to 40 kt likely out of Dixon Entrance across
the far southeastern gulf by Tuesday morning. That is as far as
they will top out before starting to decrease into Tuesday night
with most areas below 25 kt by early Wednesday morning. Seas are
generally around 6 ft with a diminishing SW swell of around 4 to 5
ft (period of around 10 sec). Generally expecting the seas to
remain around 6 to 7 ft tonight before they start building to
around 10 to 12 ft by Tuesday evening. This is a result of the
increasing winds from the low heading to Haida Gwaii kicking up
more wind waves from a SE direction. Expect the seas to remain
high into Tuesday night before gradually diminishing into
Wednesday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-661-662.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-642-663-664-671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...EAL

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