596
FXAK68 PAFC 020052
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 PM AKDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Tuesday)...

A weakening gale force low is centered over the north-central
Gulf of Alaska this evening, continuing to produce rain shower
activity across portions of the marine areas. To the north of the
low, over Southcentral, a shortwave ridge extends east from
Canada, leading to dry conditions and clearing skies. Tonight,
there is some potential for patchy fog development across the Cook
Inlet region as low-levels remain moist and the atmosphere dries
out aloft. Further east, the Gulf low slowly pushes to the coast
and moves inland near Cape Suckling Sunday morning. The dynamic
upper-level component of the low lifts across the Copper River
Basin through Sunday, which should be able to overcome
downsloping across the Chugach Mountains and drop a few inches of
snow across southern portions of the basin along the Edgerton
Highway and McCarthy Road.

Heading into Sunday night, a broad shortwave trough aloft will
lift across Southcentral as the trough axis aloft reorients over
Western Alaska. This could provide enough lift to produce some
light showers for the Cook Inlet region. Temperatures will be
cooling with the light southerly flow as cold air streaming across
the Bering Sea wraps back north around the trough axis, meaning
that temperatures will cool across Southcentral heading into next
week. As a result, these showers will be increasingly likely to be
in the form of snow and bring some light accumulations to parts
of the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and Mat- Su Valleys into
Monday.

Beyond that point, weak warm advection and moist air flowing off
the Gulf into Southcentral will combine with a digging upper-low
over Southwest Alaska to provide a more focused band of snowfall.
There is low confidence in the placement of this feature at this
time, but depending on where it sets up and how quickly or slowly
it moves, some location in the vicinity of Cook Inlet could see
training snow showers bring multiple inches of snow. At this
point, this looks most likely to set up over the Kenai Peninsula
Monday into Tuesday, but this is subject to change.

Quesada

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

The strong and persistent northeasterly winds that have plagued
the west coast of Alaska and Alaska Peninsula (AKPen) for the last
week will finally begin to slowly weaken through early next week
as a Gulf Low dissipates near Prince William Sound. Until then,
convective rain/snow mix showers will continue to stream down
across the eastern Bering Sea and into Alaska Peninsula. A weak
low over western Interior will provide enough support for snow
showers to be move over the Kuskokwim Delta and Interior Kuskokwim
River Valley tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures will remain cold
enough for precipitation to fall as snow, but a relatively dry
atmosphere will keep any accumulation light. Weak high pressure
moving across the Aleutian Chain will push into mainland Southwest
by Sunday night, helping diminish winds and keep the region
generally dry.

Farther west, a series of low pressure systems will impact the
Western and Central Aleutians with rain and periods of gale force
winds through Tuesday night. These storm tracks will ride the
upper level jet, forcing them to dive south across the Aleutian
Chain and into the North Pacific just west of Unalaska.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Areas of precipitation persist across Southwest as a remnant low
dissipates northward across the western part of the state Wednesday.
A low in the northern Gulf pushes into Southcentral Thursday
afternoon, while an upper level trough extends from a low over the
Bering Strait and south across the Alaska Peninsula. Interaction
between these features over Southcentral could create a snow
producing deformation across the region.


Looking to the western Bering on Friday, models are still
producing a variety of solutions with a low approaching the
Aleutian chain Saturday morning, but within the realm of possible
outcomes is a 955 mb low pressure system producing widespread
gales and areas of storm force winds late Saturday into Sunday.
The GFS keeps this system on the Pacific side of the Aleutians as
it transitions into the Gulf, while the ECMWF and GEM bring it
into the Bering.



&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds are expected to persist.
There is a small chance for some fog development after midnight
tonight if there are sufficient breaks in the cloud cover
overnight.

&&


$$

297
FXAK67 PAJK 020552
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
952 PM AKDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.UPDATE...
06z aviation discussion update.

&&

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Onshore flow continues persistent showers through the weekend,
steadily decreasing into early next week.

- Gusty winds with a front pushing through the panhandle Saturday
afternoon and into the evening.

- Isolated thunderstorms along the eastern gulf coast on the back
side of the front through Saturday night.

SHORT TERM...Active weather continues this weekend as another
frontal band moves into the northern panhandle early Saturday
afternoon. Gale force winds with storm force gusts are currently
following up the eastern gulf coast, with 15 to 25 kt winds over
the panhandle increasing through the next few hours. The southern
and central panhandle are still seeing widespread shower
development in the wake of the previous front with the continued
SW onshore flow. These will continue for the next few hours before
the frontal band pushes down the panhandle, bringing potential
periods of gusty winds and heavier rain rates as they pass over.
Some of these showers are producing lightning, continuing the
chance for thunderstorms along the outer coastal waters and
coastal communities for the next few hours. Winds across some
locations, especially for areas from Sitka Sound northward and
including Juneau, will likely see gusts up to 35 kt by the late
afternoon and evening hours. Winds across the gulf and a majority
of the panhandle will quickly decrease through Sunday, though near
gale to gale force winds in northern Lynn canal and northern
Frederick Sound will linger into early Monday morning.

Widespread moderate to heavy rain will also occur through the
northern panhandle into early Sunday morning, with the heaviest
rainfall across the NE Gulf Coast. Around an inch is expected in
24 hours. The southern panhandle will see more light rain rates
with this band, expecting around a quarter to a half an inch of
rain in 24 hours. Accumulating snow is also expected along the
Klondike Highway, mainly above elevations of 2000 feet, with
between 4 to 5 inches expected in 12 hours. Rates will quickly
diminish through Sunday.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Friday/...Mostly benign start to the week,
transitioning back into wet weather primarily for the southern half
of the panhandle by midweek, followed by continued active weather
with multiple rounds of energy moving up from the south.

Monday will begin off the week with a weak trough moving up along
the Coast Mountains from the south. Expecting this trough to mostly
impact the southern panhandle, with much of the organization
shearing apart on the mountains. Needless to say, a bulk of the rain
showers are expected in the extreme southern panhandle, with
decreasing rain chances the further north. Keeping a bit more
uncertainty in the forecast as roughly 25% of ensemble members
indicate a deeper trough, which would travel further inland,
although chances drop below 30% around the Icy Strait area.

For midweek, looks like the active pattern continues, with a deep
surface low moving up from the south, settling in the southeastern
gulf by Tuesday. With the initial front to sweep across up the
panhandle, there is roughly an 75% chance of at least gale force
winds in the outer gulf and at least strong breezes in the southern
inner waters, such as Clarence Strait and Sumner Strait. With the
low placement, expecting to see a kickup in northerlies out of
interior passes, such as Taku Inlet and Taiya Inlet. With the
initial band, there is the possibility of snow down to around 800 ft
near Haines and Skagway. The big question right now is how strong
the front will be, and therefore, how far the front will push
northward.

While the parent low in the gulf is expected to be fully stacked and
well occluded, multiple shortwave troughs aloft SW of Haida Gwaii
continuously moves energy northward for the rest of the week. Hence
enters the uncertain portion of the forecast, which could lead to
some larger changes as we get closer in time. What can be said,
however, is the southern half of the panhandle is largely expected
to stay wet and windy into the weekend.

AVIATION...
06z update: Our next front is currently moving ashore along our
coast, bringing renewed periods of vigorous rainfall, lightning,
LLWS, and CIGS AoB FL030. Anticipate more extensive and
widespread MVFR conditions to spread and persist through the
early morning hours before breaking apart into showers again
Sunday afternoon. For Sunday afternoon, while VFR becomes
the dominant category, heavier convective showers will drop
CIGS/VSBY down to MVFR at times. These convective showers will be
capable of becoming thunderstorms; look for building clouds and
anticipate gusty winds, heavy rain, small ice pellets, and
lightning near large swelling cumulus clouds. Wind and shower
activity begin to diminish Sunday night.

MARINE...Main story: Elevated winds and seas continue tonight
with diminishing wind and waves tomorrow. Area of low pressure
passing to the south of the panhandle will bring back elevated
wind and waves Tuesday into Wednesday. Active weather continues
late next week into the weekend.

Outside Waters: A center of low pressure spinning in the north-
central gulf will be the main character in the short term forecast
period. On the east side of the low, is the associated front that
is producing wind speeds up to 35 to 40 kts, based on polar
satellite passes. This front will track north and eastward through
this evening, bring east to south winds at speeds up to 30 to 40
knots to areas along the northeast gulf coast this evening. Mid to
late evening, around 7 to 10PM, wind speeds will begin to
decrease to around 20 to 25 knots out of the south to southwest.

South to southwest winds will continue to decrease Sunday into
Monday. Tuesday into Wednesday, an area of low pressure that will
pass to the south of the panhandle looks to swing easterly gale
force winds to the far southern waters.

Inside Waters: The incoming front from the low in the gulf will
be the weather maker for the inside waters. As the front tracks
through, southerly winds will sweep through the inner channels
with increasing wind speeds to around 20 to 30 kts with gusts
nearing 40 to 45 kts. But speeds like this will mainly last
through the night.

Speeds will decrease from south to north tomorrow so by Sunday
afternoon, speeds will be around 10 to 15 kts. The exceptions will
be near Point Couverden, North Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage
where speeds may be closer to 20 to 25 kts. Those areas will see
speeds decrease to 15 kts or less by Monday morning. Elsewhere
around the inside waters, speeds will be around 5 to 10 kts by
Monday afternoon.

Tuesday into Wednesday, speeds will increase as the expected low
moves into the area south of the panhandle. Northernly wind speeds
up to 30 kts are possible. The rest of the week has some
uncertainty to it but for now, expect elevated winds as the
pattern looks to remain active with more passing low pressure
systems.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ318.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-652.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-053-641>644-
651-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...GJS

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