223
FXAK68 PAFC 080152
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 PM AKST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Message:

Weather continues to remain active across Southcentral Alaska
with continued threats of snow, blowing snow, strong winds, and
dangerously low wind chills through the end of the weekend. The
cold airmass will be with us well beyond the end of the short
term.

...Active Warnings and Advisories...

- A Winter Weather Advisory has been extended for Northeast Kodiak
Island through 6AM Monday morning for up to 5 inches of
additional snowfall and continued blowing snow. Winds gusts as
high as 45 mph.

- A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Matanuska Valley
through 1PM Monday for 35 to 50 mph winds with gusts up to 80
mph.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Anchorage and the NW Kenai
Peninsula through 1PM Monday. North winds of 15 to 25 mph with
gusts to 45 mph expected. Strongest winds expected along the
Knik Arm from Birchwood southwest, across North and West
Anchorage, and along the coast of the northern Cook Inlet,
including Kenai and Nikiski.

- A Blizzard Warning has been extended through 4PM Monday for
Thompson Pass for ground blizzard conditions. Wind gusts as high
as 80 mph expected. Wind chills will remain near -40F.

- A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the Copper River
Basin until 4PM Tuesday for very cold wind chills as low as 40
to 50 below.

Discussion:

Very little has changed today, synoptically speaking. The overall
upper level pattern still consists of an upper low spinning over
the Gulf, with a trough digging once again east of Alaska as a
vertically stacked ridge that is more defined at 500 mb builds
eastward. The dense arctic airmass has continued to produce
strong gap flow winds through north/south oriented gaps and
passes, as has been the case the past 24-36 hrs. The strongest of
these winds are persisting across the Matanuska Valley and through
Thompson Pass where wind gusts of up to 75-85 mph are being
reported. Strong, but weaker winds are also being felt along the
Knik Arm to north and west Anchorage and along the coast of the
northern Cook Inlet, including Kenai and Nikiski. These winds in
the Advisory areas for Anchorage and NW Kenai Peninsula will
diminish through tomorrow morning. The Matanuska Valley winds will
still be cranking for a couple more days, but the expectation is
that they drop below high wind criteria early tomorrow afternoon,
with gusty winds still lingering through Tuesday afternoon.
Accumulating snowfall and blowing snow is still ongoing over
northern Kodiak Island this afternoon. Convective snow showers
that move over the northern part of the island has the potential
to significantly reduce visibility. The global models and high
resolution guidance shows periods of snowfall through Monday
morning. By Monday morning, the Gulf low affecting the island will
start to shear apart and move eastward. Looking at the upcoming
workweek, the weather looks to remain cold and mostly dry, with
gap winds continuing for favorable locations.

-AM/PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Wednesday evening)...

Active Products:

* Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley from Kalskag to Stoney until 6PM AKST Monday.

* Cold Weather Advisory in effect for the Central Alaska Peninsula
(Port Heiden) until 6AM AKST Monday.

* Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast,
Including Nunivak Island and the Interior Kuskokwim Delta until
1PM AKST Monday.


Discussion:

Very cold temperatures and gusty winds will continue across
Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN); especially for
communities near the Western Alaska including Lime Village,
Sparrevohn, and Stoney. Wind chills 20 to 35 below zero are
expected to continue through at least Monday. The strong winds
have also lofted previously fallen snow along the Kuskokwim Delta
Coast. The lowest visibilities have been observed across Nelson
Island, including the communities of Toksook Bay and Tununak, as
well as Kipnuk. Winds will gradually diminish through the early
portions of next week. Additionally, conditions will remain dry
and mostly clear through early next week. Periods of snow showers
will continue across the southern AKPEN and Eastern Aleutians
through the rest of today, spreading west across the rest of the
Aleutians tonight and Monday.

With high pressure sitting over Southwest Alaska and much of the
Bering Sea/Aleutians, expected conditions to remain largely
unchanged through early/mid-week. Models are hinting at the next
front/low combinations entering the Western Bering/Aleutians
Wednesday morning. Though uncertainty remains, the consensus as of
now is for the front to remain mostly confined to the Western
Aleutians as the system brings some rain across the area and some
gale-force winds to the marine areas of the Western Aleutians by
early Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

The long-term pattern will continue to be dominated by a strong
ridge in the central Bering Sea with quiet conditions across the
Central Aleutians since they will be mostly under the core of the
ridge axis. Across the Western Aleutians, weather will be a little
more active there as the area will be upstream/behind the ridge
and within southerly flow. A weak front will move over the Western
Aleutians both Thursday and another one may possibly clip the
area on Friday. Light rain chances are better for the system on
Thursday as the system on Friday may be a little too far west.
Each system will bring small-craft to gale-force winds across the
marine areas of the Western Aleutians. Rain chances decrease
Saturday and Sunday across the Western Aleutians. The Eastern
Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN), and across the Southern
Mainland will remain downstream/ahead of the large Bering ridge
through the long-term. This will promote more northerly flow, cold
temperatures, and windy conditions; this is especially true
through the favored terrain, gaps, and passes of the Eastern
Aleutians, AKPEN, Resurrection Bay, Passage Canal, Valdez Narrows,
and Thompson Pass. Most of the domain, except for the Western
Aleutians, stays dry through the period. The only exception maybe
Friday into Saturday when a weak shortwave drops down from the
north and brings some light snow to the Kuskokwim Valley and
northern Copper River Basin.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with gusty northerly winds will continue
through the TAF period. Winds will decrease a bit overnight, but
still remain breezy with stiff northerly winds coming down the Knik
Arm and clipping the west side of Anchorage. Winds decrease
significantly going eastward, likely such that there may be a
noticeable difference in speed on the west side of the terminal
vs. east side at times.

&&


$$

197
FXAK67 PAJK 080625 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
925 PM AKST Sun Dec 7 2025

.UPDATE...Aviation section updated for 6z taf issuance.

&&

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Moderate to heavy snow continues over the northern panhandle
and will continue to spread southward into central and southern
panhandle as temperatures decrease.

- Cold temperatures moving into SEAK to start the week, with many
areas seeing single digits or sub zero temperatures. Wind
chills along White Pass dipping below -25 Sunday night.

SHORT TERM...Complicated pattern through Monday with multiple
hazards, primarily delineated between the north and south
panhandle.

Overall, we have a decaying low pressure in the western gulf,
generating multiple shortwaves moving into the panhandle from the
southwest, bringing both additional waves of moisture and showers.
In Canada to the north, a deep inversion up to 700 mb is generating
strong katabatic flow out of interior passes. This arctic air is the
main element which is contributing to the very cold temperatures in
the north, and more rounds of snow for the south. At time of
writing, the arctic boundary is currently north of Petersburg over
to just south of Sitka.

For the north, very cold katabatic flow is currently generating
gusts up to 30 mph, low 20s weather with dewpoints in the low single
digits for both Haines and Skagway, the two towns mostly exposed to
the gradient direction. Currently expecting the temperature to
further drop through tomorrow from the cold pool in the Yukon
continuing to strengthen, radiative cooling from skies clearing
tomorrow morning, and present snow preventing any small amount of
solar radiation from being able to be absorbed by the ground.
Looking to see temperatures well below 0 on the Klondike Highway,
single digits in Haines and Skagway and teens in Icy Strait tonight,
dropping collectively around 10 degrees for tomorrow nights low.
This combined with strong winds, particularly on the Klondike, is
expected to cause wind chills exceeding -40 F by tomorrow night.
Several cold weather advisories have also been issued for Haines and
Juneau.

For the south, however, Monday will see a developing low move in
quickly from the southwest over southern Prince of Wales Island.
This in combination with the arctic boundary, which is expected to
drop into Sumner Strait by tomorrow morning, look to generate
moderate to strong snow rates for mainly northern Prince of Wales
Island, Wrangell, and Petersburg. Certainly a good deal of
uncertainty associated with this system, as too much cold air, or
the low pressure passing much further south than expected, will sap
any moisture pushing up from the south. As it stands now, the warm
front pushing up from the south ahead of the low will set up over
Prince of Wales Island from about Craig to Ketchikan. South of this
line is expected to be mainly rain, driven by the warm temperatures
aloft, north of this line as it pushes northward, is expected to be
either mix or snow. Therefore, the northern half of Prince of Wales
Island appears to initially be in the line of fire for this event.
Strong liquid equivalent rates possibly exceeding a tenth of an
inch and lighter winds look to keep temperatures north of the line
well below freezing.

As the low moves in, currently expecting to see the main band of
precipitation rotate to vertically to move the trowal axis to north
south, with southeasterly winds further enhancing the topographic
effects on the eastern side of the island. The big question is
whether the temperatures will be able to hold of for long enough to
stay all snow, to which cause PoW will receive warning levels of
snow. Unfortunately, confidence was not high enough for this
solution, and therefore an advisory was issued instead. This will
need to be watched carefully going forward.

For Wrangell, expecting to see outflow out of the Stikine valley
to keep at least the airport as all snow, and this location will
be highly dependent on how fast this low pressure system moves
eastward. For Petersburg, the strength of the arctic boundary
throws uncertainty into the total snow amounts, with possibly
sub-saturation keeping snow type as mainly plates with much less
accumulation. This is entirely assuming that the cold air does not
entirely evaporate any falling precipitation into Petersburg.

Ultimately, any amount of snow for any of the aforementioned areas
is expected to be roughly a 6 to 9 hour window of heaviest rates,
mainly associated with the warm push northward beginning during the
day on Monday and continuing through the evening.

LONG TERM...An arctic boundary continues to move southward over the
southern panhandle at the start of the mid range and will likely
move south of the panhandle by mid week. Building high pressure in
NW Canada and interior Alaska is creating offshore flow and ushering
colder continental air through the northern panhandle. This air is
very cold with 850 mb temps plummeting into the -15 to -25 C range
by mid week across the northern panhandle and near -10 C over the
south. At sea level this will translate to overnight lows ranging
from single digits above or below zero for the north to teens and
20s for the south.

Daytime highs will struggle to reach the 20s for the north and into
the 30s for the south as we progress through the week. Coldest
temperatures look to occur Monday night through Wednesday night, but
sub freezing temperatures are likely to stick around into next
weekend as well. The panhandle from Icy Strait northward will be
watched closely as many locations will be approaching their
criteria for cold weather advisories or extreme cold warnings
(especially the Haines and Klondike Highways) from early to mid
week. As of this forecast discussion, an extreme cold warning was
issued for the Klondike Highway from Monday night through Tuesday
morning for extremely cold temperatures with wind chills as low
as -40 degrees.

Strong outflow winds will be ushering in these frigid temperatures,
blowing along many northern panhandle channels, with gale force
winds lasting through most of the week. The strongest winds will
be located along Lynn Canal and Chatham Strait, with elevated
winds also coming out of Taku Inlet as well as blowing out into
the gulf from gaps along the NE gulf coast. A strong 1035 mb high
in the Yukon is the main driver of this outflow and it will persist
and strengthen to 1050 mb by late next week. Expect gusty winds
out of many of the outflow areas in the northern panhandle to
start with, but expect outflow out of areas farther south through
the week as the Yukon high expands into northern British Columbia
by late week. With these winds and the cold air that it is
bringing, a few secondary effects will be noticeable. First, wind
chills will be rather frigid reaching into the negative teens and
possibly colder in the north most of the week. Second, is that
freezing spray will become a more widespread problem for many
marine areas in the inner channels and along the NE gulf coast.
The freezing spray could become heavy at times in Lynn Canal, near
Taku Inlet, and northern parts of Glacier Bay throughout the
week.

Otherwise, most of the panhandle will be dry through the mid and
long range except for possibly the south. A series of lows track
into the BC coast and could send some of their precip into the
southern panhandle throughout the week. Given how cold the
atmosphere is expected to be the precip, when it does fall, will
mostly be in the form of snow. Highest accumulations would likely
be earlier Tuesday, while additional accumulations will likely be
low for the mid week period. There is the possibility of a
another snow event for the south next Friday into Saturday with a
couple inches of accumulation possible but storm track is
uncertain at this time for that system.

AVIATION...Aviation weather is a mixed bag of varying ceilings,
visibility and precip type as another band of precipitation moves
north through the central and northern panhandle while cold air is
being introduced at lower elevations. Rain/snow line has been
inching southward through the evening and has reached Kake as of 9
pm. north of that line ceilings and vis have dropped to MVFR and
IFR due to snowfall up to Hoonah and Juneau (VFR north of that due
to the strong outflow drying things out) while south of that line
occasional MVFR, but mostly VFR conditions are present with less
organized and less frequent rain showers moving in from the gulf.
Periods of precipitation expected to continue from Icy Strait
southward tonight with MVFR to IFR in snow while VFR to MVFR
conditions will continue where it rains with the rain/snow line
continuing to inch southward. Into Monday expect more VFR
conditions for the north, but a lot of outflow winds through
passes and channels (up to 30 to 40 kt) some low level wind shear
as well from stronger n winds blowing over mountain tops and ridge
lines. Highest of these winds will likely be Monday afternoon and
evening. Meanwhile the south will see another surge of precip move
in and with the cold air still moving south many areas will see it
as snow with the accompanying drop in vis and ceiling (likely to
IFR) starting in the morning and lasting into the evening.

MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters):

The outside waters forecast will largely be dominated by the
outflow winds from density differences between the panhandle and
north into Canada. Strong gales to storm force winds are expected
out of interior passes, Cross Sound, and Chatham Strait for the
next 36 hours. Expecting to see an increase in winds tomorrow from
cold temperatures further being enhanced in Canada. For more
information, see the short term. For seas, expecting to see
upwards of 15 ft seas associated with winds blowing out of
interior passes for the next few days.

Inside (Inner Channels):

Expecting to see a mostly stagnant pattern over the next few days,
but an impactful one. Northerly winds in Glacier Bay, Lynn Canal,
and Taku Inlet are all expected to exceed gale to strong gale for
multiple days, with the upper arms of Glacier Bay and northern
Lynn Canal expected to see heavy freezing spray for multiple days.
Looking to see the stronger northerlies to extend south over the
next 36 hours as the Monday low/energy departs into British
Columbia. Light to moderate freezing spray is expected to stick
around for the central panhandle into mid week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST Monday for AKZ318.
Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ318.
Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Monday to noon AKST Tuesday for
AKZ318.
Cold Weather Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 3 PM AKST Wednesday
for AKZ319.
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Monday night to noon AKST
Tuesday for AKZ320-325.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ321.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ322.
Strong Wind until 3 AM AKST Monday for AKZ325.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM AKST Monday for AKZ326-
329.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Monday for AKZ327.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM AKST Monday for AKZ328.
Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM AKST Monday for AKZ331.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
Storm Warning for PKZ651.
Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>033-053-641>644-661>664-
671.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ034>036-652-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...STJ/EAL
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...NC

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