269
FXAK68 PAFC 061437
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
537 AM AKST Thu Mar 6 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The front we have been watching the past few days has moved to
northern Cook Inlet where it stretches across Anchorage and into
Prince William Sound and along the rest of the north Gulf coast.
Temperatures aloft have cooled down behind the front, but even
with overnight cooling the lower elevations of the Anchorage area
saw mainly rain with temperatures remaining just above freezing.
Farther north in the Mat-Su valleys, the temperatures were able to
just dip enough to bring snowfall, but amounts have not been very
heavy at lower elevations. Palmer might still see a few inches of
snow accumulate early this morning, but all areas from Cook Inlet
through the Mat-Su will see just some snow showers behind the
front which will taper off as the day progresses. Homer has seen a
number of these snow showers overnight even with temperatures
remaining above freezing which is a testament to the colder air
aloft that moved in behind the front.


A low can be seen southwest of Kodiak Island with its small
comma-head moving northward. Because this low is lacking upper
level support, it will get absorbed into a low that is developing
in the Jet stream that can be seen just a little southeast of
that low. This new low will rapidly deepen this morning and move
to the Southern part of the Gulf this evening then slow its
northerly progress overnight. There remains some model differences
with how far north this low will trek with the NAM being notably
farther north than the GFS or ECMWF and Canadian models. This
difference will affect how much wind and precipitation occur along
the north Gulf coast and if any snow can make it as far north as
the Copper River Basin for Friday into Saturday. At this time the
more southerly position that is reflected on the GFS and other
models clustered in the central part of the Gulf is preferred.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Thursday to Sunday)...

Currently, snow showers are occurring in the Kuskokwim Delta and
Bristol Bay as an area of low pressure sits over the region.
Winds have turned southerly, so warm air advection is expected to
raise temperatures above freezing this afternoon. However,
precipitation coverage will dwindle as the aforementioned low
pressure starts to be pulled south and weakens starting Thursday
night. Meanwhile, a large mass of cold air is traversing the
Bering and is allowing for snow showers and gusty near gale force
winds ranging from the Pribilof Islands to Adak. This mass of cold
air will slowly migrate eastward over the forecast period,
bringing widespread snow showers and gusty winds. Due to these
characteristics, a Special Weather Statement has been issued for
the Pribilof Islands for blowing snow beginning this afternoon and
lasting until late this evening.

As the low weakens and moves toward the Gulf of Alaska, a ridge
will move in from the west. The cold air mass will remain in place
as the ridge moves eastward. The ridge arrives in the Bering by
Thursday afternoon, bringing drier air and calmer winds with it.
By Friday night into Saturday, wind speeds and precipitation will
reach a minimum in the eastern Aleutians and the Southwest Alaska
mainland as the ridge moves inland. Behind the ridge, however, is
a very large and strong low pressure system. This low`s front
will bring a bout of storm force winds and heavy precipitation to
the western Aleutians by Friday afternoon. Due to the colder air
mass ahead of it, the precipitation will initially fall as heavy
snow before warm air advection brings temperatures above freezing
and transitions snowfall to rain. Due to the combinations of heavy
snowfall and winds, visibility reducing blowing snow is possible,
starting in Adak Friday afternoon and reaching the Pribilofs by
late Saturday morning. Focusing on the winds again, a core of
storm force winds from the low will impact the western Aleutians
on Sunday as the center of this large low enters the central
Bering. Gale force winds will impact the rest of the Aleutians in
this same timeframe. Cold air will wrap around the west and south
side of this large low, allowing for the possibility of snowfall
once again on the backside of it.

-JAR

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Sunday through Wednesday)...

An elongated upper level trough extends from Siberia and the
Russian Far East across the Bering into Bristol Bay Sunday. This
trough continues to extend across the Gulf of Alaska with a low
center Monday that exits to the Southeast by Wednesday. A number
of shortwaves slide through the pattern across the Aleutians
before dropping into the Eastern North Pacific through the
forecast period. By Wednesday, a weak trough extends across the
Southern two-thirds of the state. A weak upper level ridge over
Interior Alaska for the weekend reorients along the Arctic Coast
by midweek. A semi-organized cluster of GFS / ECMWF and Canadian
models maintain the larger scale features. The shortwaves through
the pattern enhance the uncertainty with the surface details
through the week.

The forecast opens with a well developed low in the Western
Bering that weakens and moves to the Eastern Bering for Tuesday.
An extensive area of gale force winds are expected across the
Western and Central Aleutians diminishing through Tuesday, with
mid-range storm force gusts over the Western Aleutians through
Monday. A front extends across from the low over the Bering with
widespread snow wrapping around the low and spanning open waters
with the front over the Bering. The Bering portions of the front
stretches into the Bering Strait and Western Alaska, diminishing
for Wednesday. Weather changes to rain over and South of the
AKPEN. A surface low forms on the front near Kodiak Island late
Sunday and the system pushes the rain across the Gulf coasts
through Tuesday. Another front brings areas of rain and snow over
the Western and Central Aleutians late Monday through Wednesday

- Kutz

&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...A front moving through the region this morning continues
to bring southerly winds and scattered rain/snow showers to the
area. Southerly winds gusting as high as 20 knots persist into
late this morning. MVFR conditions improve to VFR conditions
behind the front this afternoon.

&&


$$

723
FXAK67 PAJK 062302
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
202 PM AKST Thu Mar 6 2025

.SHORT TERM...Key Messages:
-Active weather continues into the end of the week, with the next
in the series of systems tracking in Thursday night through early
Saturday.

-Elevated marine winds up to gale force for southern channels and
near gale for central channels Thursday night into late Friday.

-Heavy snow for the Klondike and Haines highways in the farther
northern panhandle. See the latest Winter Storm Warning for
details.

-Strong wind gusts much of the panhandle Thursday night into
Friday afternoon with high wind gusts up to 60 mph for the
Metlakatla area. See the latest High Wind Warning for details.

Details: As the fronts track into the panhandle Thursday night
onwards, very strong winds will flow into the panhandle through
the southern panhandle. The strongest winds are expected in the
far southern panhandle. Wind gusts upwards of 60 mph for Annette
Island. Wind gusts around 35 to 50 mph for the rest of the
southern panhandle. Some gusts nearing 25 to 40 mph for areas
north of Frederick Sound through Friday as the low tracks north.

For precip, the associated warm front moving up from the south
Thursday night into Friday is expected to bring heavy
precipitation. While most areas can expect mainly rain, the
far northern panhandle will likely see a rain-snow mix or all snow
at higher elevations. Ahead of the front, northernly winds look
to pull cold air from Canada into the northern panhandle, which
would lower snow levels and temps. But as the front tracks farther
northward, warm, southerly air looks to increase snow levels to
around 1500 ft. Moderate to heavy snow is likely, before the
warmer air moves in and allows rain to mix in. The trailing cold
front will help send a surge of stronger winds through the far
southern panhandle on Friday.

.LONG TERM...The long term forecast remains wet with light
precipitation continuing into the start of next week. The first low
starts to diminish Saturday into Sunday allowing for lingering
precipitation, mainly focused on the southern panhandle. As this low
diminishes, winds along the gulf and inside waters will decrease as
well. Fresh to strong breezes will continue across the gulf as the
next low develops.

The second low develops Sunday into Monday making its way toward
the panhandle. With little to no break between the systems, light
precipitation will be observed as mid level zonal flow continues.
Increasing probability of precipitation for the beginning of the
week was one of the main changes made to the forecast. Confidence
has increased that multiple low pressure systems following each
other will keep the panhandle in a wet pattern. Another notable
change in the forecast, with the system Sunday into the beginning
of the week, will be the change in temperatures. Below typical
temperatures will be observed across the panhandle. This makes the
precipitation type become snow or a snow/rain mix for most of the
panhandle by Sunday night. Temperatures will be right around
freezing for the central and southern panhandle, creating a mix
of precipitation. Snow that falls will be wet in character with
low snow ratios.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will persist across the northern
panhandle Thursday afternoon before deteriorating from south to
north tonight into Friday with increasing winds, lowering CIGs and
VIS with precipitation. Skagway and Haines are expected to
transition to a rain snow mix as this system moves in tonight,
along with a drop in wind speeds. Southern panhandle could see
minor improvements this evening before approaching gale force
front brings deteriorating conditions and widespread LLWS lasting
through Friday morning. Associated low clouds and moderate to
heavy rain will lead to IFR and occasional LIFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...A gale force low in the Gulf swings a front across the
panhandle by early Friday morning. As this low tracks north within
the Gulf, strong marine up to severe gales are likely for the
southern inner channels and out in the gulf. For areas along and
north of Frederick Sound, wind speeds upwards of 25 to 30 knots
(strong breeze to near-gale) are likely beginning Thursday night
and lasting through Friday night, with gales returning to the
outer coastal waters. Winds rapidly decrease by early Saturday as
the front and low weaken while exiting the area.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through Friday afternoon
for AKZ317-328.
Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318.
Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 9 PM AKST Friday
for AKZ318.
Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon AKST Friday
for AKZ319.
Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through late tonight for
AKZ323-329.
Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through Friday afternoon
for AKZ327.
Strong Wind from late tonight through Friday afternoon for
AKZ330.
High Wind Warning from 3 AM to 3 PM AKST Friday for AKZ332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641>644-652-661>664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-053-651.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PRB
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...PRB

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