ABRFC Forecast Precipitation

Precipitation input is one of the key forcings for our hydrologic model. Not only do we use the precipitation that fell in the past and up to the current time, we also use forecast precipitation. The NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) creates a national-scale Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) every 6 hours. The ABRFC forecast precipitation is initialized using the QPF from WPC and may be adjusted based on current trends or known local effects. We call this ABRFC forecast precipitation our Hydrologic Model Precipitation Forcing. ABRFC uses 24 hours of Hydrologic Model Precipitation Forcing in four 6 hour increments as a forcing into the hydrologic model year-round. The ABRFC normally creates precipitation forecasts for the Arkansas-Red Basin three times per day (00z, 12z, and 18z). The ABRFC also creates an additional precipitation forecasts at 06Z, when staffed overnight for flooding or heavy rainfall. When expected precipitation from approaching significant weather events extending beyond the 24-hour forecast time period would likely cause moderate or greater flooding, ABRFC has the ability to extend the time window for the precipitation forcing input to the operational hydrologic model to an appropriately longer time period, such as 48 hours.

6-hour Periods

First 6-Hour Period

Second 6-Hour Period

Third 6-Hour Period

Fourth 6-Hour Period

Accumulated Totals

24-hour Total