Soaring Forecast for Moriarty NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1510 MST Tuesday February 4 2025
This forecast is for Tuesday, February 4, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 69.5 F/20.9 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 342 ft/min (1.7 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 10659 ft MSL (4329 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 70.0 F/21.6 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1345 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 8212 ft MSL (1882 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Wednesday 02/05.... Good
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:59:52 / 17:36:04 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 36 min 11 sec (636 min 11 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:17:58 MST... 38.87 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 02/04/2025 at 0500 MST
Freezing level.................. 14178 ft MSL (7848 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 21978 ft MSL (15648 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 19120 ft MSL (12790 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +5.2
K index......................... -2.8
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.1 -85.2 280 43 22 4.5 2.5 81.9 179.5 35.6 M M
45000 -58.8 -73.8 280 55 28 2.5 1.4 69.6 157.2 30.3 M M
40000 -54.9 -66.8 260 56 29 2.6 1.4 52.4 126.3 21.0 M M
38000 -53.2 -63.8 250 55 29 2.9 1.6 45.8 114.5 17.0 M M
36000 -51.4 -60.5 245 55 28 2.9 1.6 40.1 104.2 13.4 M M
34000 -47.9 -54.2 240 55 28 8.3 4.6 36.9 98.5 11.5 M M
32000 -42.9 -45.2 240 53 27 8.3 4.6 35.8 96.5 10.9 M M
30000 -37.3 -35.1 240 50 26 8.3 4.5 34.5 94.2 10.3 M M
29000 -34.9 -30.8 240 49 25 8.3 4.5 34.0 93.2 10.0 M M
28000 -32.4 -26.3 235 47 24 8.3 4.6 33.5 92.4 9.7 M M
27000 -30.0 -22.0 235 46 24 7.8 4.3 32.8 91.0 9.3 M M
26000 -27.7 -17.9 235 45 23 7.8 4.3 32.0 89.7 8.8 M M
25000 -25.3 -13.5 235 45 23 7.8 4.3 31.4 88.5 8.3 M M
24000 -23.0 -9.4 240 44 23 7.8 4.3 30.7 87.3 7.8 M M
23000 -20.7 -5.3 240 43 22 7.8 4.3 30.0 85.9 7.3 M M
22000 -18.4 -1.1 240 42 22 7.8 4.3 29.3 84.8 6.8 M M
21000 -16.1 3.0 240 41 21 7.6 4.2 28.6 83.5 6.3 M M
20000 -13.8 7.2 235 39 20 7.6 4.2 27.8 82.1 5.7 M M
19500 -12.7 9.1 235 38 20 7.6 4.2 27.5 81.5 5.4 M M
19000 -11.5 11.3 230 38 19 7.6 4.2 27.2 80.9 5.1 M M
18500 -10.4 13.3 230 36 19 7.5 4.1 26.8 80.2 4.8 M M
18000 -9.3 15.3 230 35 18 7.5 4.1 26.4 79.5 4.5 M M
17500 -8.2 17.2 230 33 17 7.6 4.2 26.0 78.9 4.2 M M
17000 -6.5 20.3 230 32 16 7.6 4.2 25.5 77.9 3.7 M M
16500 -5.4 22.3 230 31 16 8.0 4.4 25.2 77.3 3.4 M M
16000 -4.2 24.4 230 30 16 7.9 4.3 24.9 76.8 3.2 M M
15500 -3.0 26.6 230 30 15 8.0 4.4 24.6 76.2 2.9 M M
15000 -1.8 28.8 230 30 15 8.1 4.4 24.3 75.7 2.7 M M
14500 -0.6 30.9 230 29 15 7.9 4.4 24.0 75.3 2.4 M M
14000 0.6 33.1 230 29 15 7.7 4.2 23.7 74.7 2.1 M M
13500 1.7 35.1 230 28 15 7.7 4.2 23.4 74.1 1.8 M M
13000 2.9 37.2 230 28 14 7.6 4.2 23.0 73.4 1.5 M M
12500 4.0 39.2 230 27 14 7.6 4.2 22.7 72.9 1.3 M M
12000 5.2 41.4 230 25 13 7.6 4.2 22.4 72.3 1.0 M M
11500 6.3 43.3 230 24 12 7.0 3.9 22.0 71.7 0.7 M M
11000 7.4 45.3 230 22 11 7.4 4.1 21.6 70.9 0.3 M M
10500 8.5 47.3 230 20 11 7.3 4.0 21.2 70.2 -0.1 327 1.7
10250 9.0 48.2 230 20 10 7.2 4.0 21.0 69.8 -0.3 303 1.5
10000 9.5 49.1 230 19 10 7.0 3.8 20.8 69.5 -0.5 280 1.4
9750 10.0 50.0 230 18 9 6.9 3.8 20.6 69.1 -0.7 257 1.3
9500 10.5 50.9 230 17 9 7.0 3.8 20.4 68.7 -1.0 235 1.2
9250 11.0 51.8 230 17 9 6.5 3.6 20.1 68.3 -1.2 213 1.1
9000 11.4 52.5 230 16 8 5.3 2.9 19.9 67.7 -1.5 193 1.0
8750 11.8 53.2 230 16 8 4.8 2.7 19.5 67.1 -1.9 175 0.9
8500 12.1 53.8 230 15 8 4.5 2.5 19.1 66.4 -2.3 158 0.8
8250 12.4 54.3 230 15 8 2.7 1.5 18.6 65.6 -2.8 143 0.7
8000 12.5 54.5 230 14 7 1.5 0.8 18.0 64.5 -3.4 133 0.7
7750 12.5 54.5 235 13 7 1.8 1.0 17.4 63.4 -4.1 123 0.6
7500 12.6 54.7 235 12 6 -0.7 -0.4 16.8 62.2 -4.8 115 0.6
7250 12.3 54.1 235 10 5 -4.1 -2.3 15.8 60.5 -5.8 114 0.6
7000 12.0 53.6 230 8 4 -4.4 -2.4 14.7 58.5 -6.9 118 0.6
6750 11.6 52.9 230 6 3 -5.6 -3.1 13.7 56.6 -8.0 122 0.6
6500 10.6 51.1 215 4 2 -24.4 -13.4 12.0 53.6 -9.7 144 0.7
6250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
02/04/2025 at 0800 MST | 02/04/2025 at 1100 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.2 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +4.8
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +1.0 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... -6.1
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.8 -86.4 285 49 25 4.4 2.4 | -65.5 -85.9 280 47 24 3.8 2.1
45000 -59.0 -74.2 280 59 30 3.9 2.1 | -58.9 -74.0 275 57 29 5.7 3.1
40000 -53.2 -63.8 265 58 30 3.4 1.9 | -50.4 -58.7 280 62 32 3.9 2.1
38000 -52.0 -61.6 255 55 28 2.0 1.1 | -50.4 -58.7 260 57 30 -0.2 -0.1
36000 -50.8 -59.4 240 54 28 2.0 1.1 | -50.5 -58.9 245 58 30 -0.2 -0.1
34000 -47.8 -54.0 235 54 28 7.6 4.2 | -48.1 -54.6 235 60 31 7.9 4.3
32000 -42.7 -44.9 240 53 27 7.6 4.2 | -42.8 -45.0 235 58 30 8.0 4.4
30000 -37.7 -35.9 240 50 26 8.5 4.7 | -38.1 -36.6 240 53 27 7.6 4.2
29000 -35.2 -31.4 240 48 25 8.5 4.7 | -35.8 -32.4 235 49 25 7.6 4.2
28000 -32.6 -26.7 235 46 23 8.6 4.7 | -33.6 -28.5 235 45 23 7.5 4.1
27000 -30.2 -22.4 235 44 23 7.9 4.4 | -31.0 -23.8 235 43 22 8.7 4.8
26000 -27.8 -18.0 235 43 22 8.0 4.4 | -28.4 -19.1 235 41 21 8.7 4.8
25000 -25.5 -13.9 235 41 21 8.0 4.4 | -25.8 -14.4 235 40 21 8.7 4.8
24000 -23.1 -9.6 235 41 21 7.8 4.3 | -23.4 -10.1 235 40 20 7.7 4.2
23000 -20.8 -5.4 230 41 21 7.8 4.3 | -21.1 -6.0 235 40 21 7.7 4.2
22000 -18.4 -1.1 230 41 21 7.8 4.3 | -18.8 -1.8 230 41 21 7.7 4.2
21000 -16.1 3.0 230 41 21 8.2 4.5 | -16.5 2.3 230 41 21 7.8 4.3
20000 -13.6 7.5 230 41 21 8.2 4.5 | -14.1 6.6 230 41 21 7.8 4.3
19500 -12.4 9.7 230 41 21 8.2 4.5 | -13.0 8.6 230 42 21 7.8 4.3
19000 -11.2 11.8 230 41 21 8.0 4.4 | -11.8 10.8 230 42 21 7.9 4.3
18500 -10.0 14.0 230 41 21 7.8 4.3 | -10.6 12.9 235 42 21 8.0 4.4
18000 -8.3 17.1 230 40 21 7.7 4.2 | -8.8 16.2 235 41 21 7.9 4.4
17500 -7.2 19.0 230 39 20 7.5 4.1 | -7.6 18.3 235 41 21 7.8 4.3
17000 -6.0 21.2 230 38 20 7.6 4.2 | -6.4 20.5 235 41 21 7.8 4.3
16500 -5.0 23.0 230 37 19 6.8 3.7 | -5.3 22.5 235 40 21 7.5 4.1
16000 -3.9 25.0 230 35 18 6.9 3.8 | -4.1 24.6 235 39 20 7.5 4.1
15500 -2.9 26.8 230 33 17 6.7 3.7 | -3.0 26.6 235 39 20 7.1 3.9
15000 -1.9 28.6 230 31 16 6.6 3.6 | -2.0 28.4 235 37 19 6.9 3.8
14500 -1.0 30.2 230 29 15 6.5 3.6 | -0.9 30.4 230 36 19 6.6 3.6
14000 -0.0 32.0 230 28 14 6.3 3.5 | -0.0 32.0 230 34 18 6.2 3.4
13500 0.9 33.6 230 26 13 6.3 3.5 | 0.9 33.6 230 32 17 6.1 3.4
13000 1.8 35.2 235 25 13 6.3 3.5 | 1.7 35.1 230 30 15 5.8 3.2
12500 2.7 36.9 235 24 12 6.3 3.5 | 2.6 36.7 230 28 14 5.9 3.2
12000 3.7 38.7 240 23 12 7.0 3.9 | 3.4 38.1 230 26 13 6.6 3.6
11500 4.7 40.5 245 23 12 6.6 3.6 | 4.3 39.7 230 23 12 6.3 3.4
11000 5.8 42.4 245 22 11 8.2 4.5 | 5.3 41.5 235 21 11 7.6 4.2
10500 7.0 44.6 245 22 11 8.1 4.4 | 6.4 43.5 240 19 10 7.4 4.1
10250 7.6 45.7 245 21 11 7.9 4.3 | 6.9 44.4 240 19 10 7.3 4.0
10000 8.2 46.8 245 21 11 8.1 4.4 | 7.5 45.5 240 18 9 7.7 4.2
9750 8.8 47.8 245 20 10 8.4 4.6 | 8.1 46.6 240 17 9 8.1 4.4
9500 9.4 48.9 245 19 10 8.2 4.5 | 8.7 47.7 240 16 8 7.9 4.3
9250 10.0 50.0 245 18 9 8.2 4.5 | 9.3 48.7 245 15 8 8.5 4.6
9000 10.6 51.1 245 17 9 6.6 3.6 | 9.9 49.8 240 14 7 7.1 3.9
8750 11.0 51.8 245 16 8 5.1 2.8 | 10.3 50.5 240 13 7 5.6 3.1
8500 11.4 52.5 245 14 7 4.5 2.5 | 10.8 51.4 240 13 6 4.8 2.6
8250 11.6 52.9 245 13 7 2.1 1.1 | 11.0 51.8 240 11 6 2.2 1.2
8000 11.7 53.1 245 12 6 0.7 0.4 | 11.1 52.0 240 10 5 1.7 0.9
7750 11.7 53.1 245 11 6 0.1 0.0 | 11.2 52.2 235 8 4 0.9 0.5
7500 11.6 52.9 245 9 5 -1.7 -0.9 | 11.3 52.3 235 7 3 5.0 2.8
7250 11.4 52.5 250 8 4 -3.2 -1.8 | 11.9 53.4 235 6 3 10.1 5.6
7000 11.1 52.0 250 6 3 -2.7 -1.5 | 12.6 54.7 230 5 3 9.5 5.2
6750 10.9 51.6 255 4 2 -5.0 -2.7 | 13.4 56.1 230 5 3 10.1 5.5
6500 10.1 50.2 255 1 1 -17.4 -9.5 | 14.2 57.6 225 4 2 12.6 6.9
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
02/04/2025 at 1400 MST | 02/04/2025 at 1700 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +4.3 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.0
CINH... -0.3 K Index... -13.0 | CINH... -0.4 K Index... -3.5
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -66.2 -87.2 275 50 26 4.8 2.6 | -65.8 -86.4 290 47 24 5.5 3.0
45000 -58.5 -73.3 275 61 31 5.4 2.9 | -57.6 -71.7 290 66 34 5.1 2.8
40000 -50.4 -58.7 275 66 34 4.7 2.6 | -50.0 -58.0 285 76 39 4.9 2.7
38000 -48.5 -55.3 270 64 33 3.1 1.7 | -47.3 -53.1 275 69 36 4.4 2.4
36000 -46.7 -52.1 260 62 32 3.1 1.7 | -44.6 -48.3 270 63 32 4.4 2.4
34000 -44.7 -48.5 250 62 32 3.4 1.9 | -42.7 -44.9 260 57 30 1.6 0.9
32000 -42.4 -44.3 240 62 32 3.4 1.9 | -41.8 -43.2 245 55 29 1.6 0.9
30000 -38.7 -37.7 235 59 30 8.3 4.6 | -38.6 -37.5 240 55 28 8.3 4.6
29000 -36.2 -33.2 240 55 28 8.4 4.6 | -36.1 -33.0 235 54 28 8.3 4.6
28000 -33.7 -28.7 240 52 27 8.4 4.6 | -33.6 -28.5 235 54 28 8.4 4.6
27000 -31.2 -24.2 240 49 25 8.3 4.6 | -31.1 -24.0 235 53 27 8.2 4.5
26000 -28.7 -19.7 235 48 25 8.3 4.6 | -28.6 -19.5 235 51 26 8.2 4.5
25000 -26.2 -15.2 235 46 24 8.3 4.6 | -26.2 -15.2 235 49 25 8.2 4.5
24000 -23.8 -10.8 230 45 23 7.5 4.1 | -23.7 -10.7 235 48 25 7.7 4.2
23000 -21.6 -6.9 230 46 23 7.5 4.1 | -21.4 -6.5 235 48 25 7.7 4.2
22000 -19.4 -2.9 230 46 24 7.5 4.1 | -19.1 -2.4 235 48 25 7.7 4.2
21000 -17.1 1.2 230 46 24 7.8 4.3 | -16.8 1.8 235 49 25 7.7 4.2
20000 -14.7 5.5 230 45 23 7.8 4.3 | -14.5 5.9 235 50 26 7.7 4.2
19500 -13.6 7.5 230 45 23 7.8 4.3 | -13.4 7.9 235 51 26 7.7 4.2
19000 -12.4 9.7 235 45 23 7.9 4.3 | -11.7 10.9 235 52 27 8.0 4.4
18500 -11.2 11.8 235 45 23 8.3 4.6 | -10.4 13.3 240 52 27 8.1 4.4
18000 -9.3 15.3 235 44 23 8.2 4.5 | -9.2 15.4 240 52 27 8.1 4.4
17500 -8.1 17.4 235 44 23 8.0 4.4 | -8.1 17.4 240 52 27 7.7 4.2
17000 -6.9 19.6 235 43 22 8.0 4.4 | -6.9 19.6 240 51 26 7.8 4.3
16500 -5.7 21.7 235 43 22 7.8 4.3 | -5.8 21.6 245 50 26 6.5 3.6
16000 -4.5 23.9 235 42 22 7.8 4.3 | -4.9 23.2 245 48 25 6.2 3.4
15500 -3.3 26.1 235 41 21 7.7 4.2 | -4.0 24.8 245 46 24 5.6 3.1
15000 -2.2 28.0 235 40 20 7.5 4.1 | -3.3 26.1 245 43 22 4.8 2.6
14500 -1.0 30.2 240 39 20 7.2 4.0 | -2.6 27.3 245 40 21 5.0 2.7
14000 -0.0 32.0 240 37 19 6.3 3.5 | -1.7 28.9 245 38 20 7.1 3.9
13500 0.9 33.6 240 35 18 6.4 3.5 | -0.7 30.7 240 36 19 6.9 3.8
13000 1.7 35.1 240 32 17 5.0 2.7 | 0.4 32.7 240 34 18 8.1 4.5
12500 2.5 36.5 240 29 15 5.3 2.9 | 1.6 34.9 240 32 17 8.0 4.4
12000 3.2 37.8 240 26 13 6.0 3.3 | 2.8 37.0 235 31 16 8.2 4.5
11500 4.1 39.4 235 23 12 6.3 3.4 | 4.0 39.2 235 28 15 8.0 4.4
11000 5.1 41.2 235 21 11 8.7 4.8 | 5.1 41.2 230 26 13 7.7 4.2
10500 6.4 43.5 230 19 10 8.5 4.7 | 6.3 43.3 230 23 12 7.8 4.3
10250 7.0 44.6 230 19 10 8.8 4.8 | 6.8 44.2 225 22 11 8.2 4.5
10000 7.7 45.9 230 18 9 9.4 5.1 | 7.5 45.5 225 21 11 8.7 4.8
9750 8.4 47.1 230 18 9 9.6 5.2 | 8.1 46.6 225 20 11 8.9 4.9
9500 9.1 48.4 230 18 9 9.2 5.0 | 8.8 47.8 220 20 10 8.5 4.6
9250 9.8 49.6 230 18 9 10.7 5.9 | 9.4 48.9 220 19 10 9.9 5.4
9000 10.6 51.1 230 17 9 10.4 5.7 | 10.2 50.4 220 18 9 10.0 5.5
8750 11.3 52.3 230 17 9 8.7 4.8 | 10.9 51.6 220 18 9 8.7 4.8
8500 12.0 53.6 230 17 9 9.1 5.0 | 11.6 52.9 220 17 9 9.0 4.9
8250 12.7 54.9 230 17 9 9.7 5.3 | 12.2 54.0 220 17 9 9.2 5.0
8000 13.4 56.1 230 17 9 10.1 5.5 | 12.9 55.2 220 16 8 9.4 5.2
7750 14.2 57.6 230 17 9 9.8 5.4 | 13.6 56.5 220 16 8 9.4 5.2
7500 14.9 58.8 230 17 9 9.8 5.4 | 14.3 57.7 220 15 8 9.1 5.0
7250 15.6 60.1 230 16 8 9.9 5.4 | 15.0 59.0 220 14 7 8.2 4.5
7000 16.4 61.5 230 16 8 10.1 5.5 | 15.6 60.1 220 13 7 7.6 4.2
6750 17.1 62.8 225 16 8 9.5 5.2 | 16.1 61.0 220 12 6 8.6 4.7
6500 17.9 64.2 225 15 8 12.1 6.7 | 16.7 62.1 220 10 5 3.7 2.0
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Moriarty Municipal Airport site in Moriarty, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 34.9781667 deg
West Longitude: 106.0000278 deg
Elevation: 6204.2 feet (1891.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
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