Soaring Forecast for Moriarty NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0728 MDT Wednesday July 17 2024
This forecast is for Wednesday, July 17, 2024:
If the trigger temperature of 78.8 F/26.0 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 1114 ft/min (5.7 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 18409 ft MSL (12089 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 89.0 F/32.1 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 0945 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1500 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast thin middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 13359 ft MSL (7039 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 07/18..... Excellent
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:03:23 / 20:17:08 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 13 min 45 sec (853 min 45 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:10:15 MDT... 75.85 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 07/17/2024 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 16358 ft MSL (10038 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 15936 ft MSL (9616 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 16754 ft MSL (10434 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -2.8
K index......................... +26.7
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.0 -85.0 355 10 5 1.7 0.9 77.7 171.8 27.3 M M
45000 -59.7 -75.5 340 20 10 6.7 3.7 63.3 146.0 20.1 M M
40000 -49.6 -57.3 315 15 8 6.3 3.5 56.6 133.9 16.9 M M
38000 -45.3 -49.5 265 12 6 6.4 3.5 53.1 127.6 15.0 M M
36000 -41.5 -42.7 230 17 9 6.8 3.8 50.6 123.1 13.6 M M
34000 -37.3 -35.1 235 15 8 6.9 3.8 48.0 118.4 12.0 M M
32000 -33.2 -27.8 245 12 6 7.2 3.9 46.0 114.9 10.8 M M
30000 -28.6 -19.5 260 15 8 7.6 4.2 44.1 111.4 9.6 M M
29000 -26.4 -15.5 265 17 9 7.6 4.2 43.4 110.1 9.1 M M
28000 -24.1 -11.4 265 18 9 7.8 4.3 42.6 108.7 8.6 M M
27000 -21.8 -7.2 275 18 9 7.8 4.3 41.8 107.2 8.0 M M
26000 -19.4 -2.9 280 19 10 7.8 4.3 41.1 105.9 7.5 M M
25000 -17.1 1.2 285 19 10 6.9 3.8 40.5 104.8 7.1 M M
24000 -15.3 4.5 295 16 8 6.2 3.4 39.0 102.2 5.9 M M
23000 -13.6 7.5 300 13 7 6.3 3.5 37.7 99.9 4.8 M M
22000 -11.8 10.8 315 10 5 6.4 3.5 36.6 98.0 3.8 M M
21000 -9.9 14.2 335 9 5 6.4 3.5 35.4 95.6 2.7 M M
20000 -7.6 18.3 360 10 5 6.4 3.5 33.9 93.1 1.4 M M
19500 -6.6 20.1 005 10 5 6.6 3.6 33.4 92.1 1.0 M M
19000 -5.7 21.7 010 10 5 6.7 3.7 32.9 91.2 0.5 M M
18500 -4.7 23.5 015 9 5 6.7 3.7 32.4 90.3 -0.0 1114 5.7
18000 -3.6 25.5 025 8 4 7.8 4.3 31.9 89.5 -0.4 1067 5.4
17500 -2.5 27.5 030 7 3 7.7 4.2 31.6 88.9 -0.8 1019 5.2
17000 -1.4 29.5 040 6 3 8.1 4.4 31.3 88.3 -1.1 971 4.9
16500 -0.2 31.6 050 5 2 8.2 4.5 31.0 87.8 -1.4 920 4.7
16000 1.0 33.8 065 4 2 8.3 4.5 30.8 87.4 -1.7 869 4.4
15500 2.3 36.1 085 3 1 8.5 4.7 30.5 87.0 -1.9 817 4.2
15000 3.5 38.3 120 2 1 8.6 4.7 30.3 86.6 -2.1 765 3.9
14500 4.7 40.5 155 2 1 8.2 4.5 30.1 86.2 -2.4 714 3.6
14000 5.9 42.6 180 3 1 8.2 4.5 29.9 85.7 -2.6 663 3.4
13500 7.1 44.8 195 3 2 8.0 4.4 29.6 85.3 -2.9 612 3.1
13000 8.3 46.9 205 4 2 8.0 4.4 29.3 84.7 -3.2 563 2.9
12500 9.4 48.9 215 4 2 7.8 4.3 29.0 84.2 -3.6 513 2.6
12000 10.6 51.1 225 5 3 7.6 4.2 28.7 83.6 -3.9 464 2.4
11500 11.7 53.1 230 7 4 6.7 3.7 28.4 83.1 -4.3 416 2.1
11000 12.7 54.9 225 8 4 7.6 4.2 27.9 82.2 -4.8 371 1.9
10500 13.8 56.8 220 9 5 6.0 3.3 27.5 81.5 -5.1 324 1.6
10250 14.1 57.4 210 9 5 4.9 2.7 27.1 80.8 -5.5 306 1.6
10000 14.6 58.3 200 9 5 6.5 3.6 26.8 80.3 -5.8 285 1.4
9750 15.1 59.2 190 10 5 6.7 3.7 26.6 79.9 -6.1 262 1.3
9500 15.6 60.1 180 10 5 6.3 3.5 26.4 79.4 -6.3 240 1.2
9250 16.0 60.8 170 11 6 6.8 3.7 26.1 79.0 -6.6 219 1.1
9000 16.5 61.7 165 12 6 4.4 2.4 25.8 78.5 -6.9 197 1.0
8750 16.7 62.1 165 12 6 1.9 1.1 25.3 77.5 -7.4 184 0.9
8500 16.9 62.4 160 13 7 2.3 1.3 24.7 76.5 -8.0 172 0.9
8250 16.9 62.4 150 13 7 1.8 1.0 24.1 75.4 -8.7 162 0.8
8000 17.0 62.6 145 13 7 2.4 1.3 23.5 74.3 -9.4 153 0.8
7750 17.1 62.8 135 14 7 3.0 1.7 23.0 73.4 -10.0 141 0.7
7500 17.3 63.1 125 14 7 2.1 1.1 22.4 72.4 -10.6 130 0.7
7250 17.3 63.1 115 14 7 1.5 0.8 21.8 71.3 -11.3 121 0.6
7000 17.4 63.3 105 14 7 1.4 0.8 21.2 70.1 -12.0 112 0.6
6750 17.4 63.3 100 14 7 2.1 1.1 20.6 69.0 -12.7 103 0.5
6500 17.6 63.7 095 12 6 4.3 2.3 20.1 68.1 -13.3 90 0.5
6250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
07/17/2024 at 0900 MDT | 07/17/2024 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +123.6 LI... -0.7 | CAPE... +520.4 LI... -2.6
CINH... -193.1 K Index... +23.8 | CINH... -43.7 K Index... +26.1
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.2 -83.6 350 12 6 2.7 1.5 | -63.5 -82.3 360 10 5 2.1 1.1
45000 -58.7 -73.7 345 16 8 5.5 3.0 | -58.1 -72.6 355 12 6 5.5 3.0
40000 -49.7 -57.5 315 15 7 6.7 3.7 | -49.5 -57.1 300 15 8 6.6 3.6
38000 -45.6 -50.1 295 15 8 6.7 3.7 | -45.6 -50.1 305 16 8 6.6 3.6
36000 -41.6 -42.9 275 17 9 7.0 3.8 | -41.6 -42.9 310 18 9 6.7 3.7
34000 -37.4 -35.3 275 16 8 7.1 3.9 | -37.5 -35.5 300 16 8 6.8 3.8
32000 -33.1 -27.6 275 15 8 7.2 4.0 | -33.5 -28.3 290 15 8 7.0 3.8
30000 -28.8 -19.8 270 17 9 7.3 4.0 | -28.4 -19.1 285 16 8 7.6 4.2
29000 -26.6 -15.9 270 18 10 7.4 4.0 | -26.2 -15.2 280 17 9 7.6 4.2
28000 -24.4 -11.9 265 19 10 7.3 4.0 | -24.0 -11.2 280 17 9 7.0 3.8
27000 -22.2 -8.0 270 17 9 7.3 4.0 | -21.9 -7.4 285 17 9 7.0 3.9
26000 -20.0 -4.0 275 15 8 7.3 4.0 | -19.8 -3.6 285 16 8 7.0 3.9
25000 -17.8 -0.0 280 13 7 6.9 3.8 | -17.7 0.1 290 15 8 6.3 3.5
24000 -15.8 3.6 285 9 5 6.7 3.7 | -15.9 3.4 290 12 6 6.2 3.4
23000 -13.9 7.0 300 6 3 6.9 3.8 | -14.2 6.4 285 9 5 6.3 3.4
22000 -12.0 10.4 335 3 2 7.0 3.8 | -12.3 9.9 285 7 4 7.0 3.8
21000 -9.4 15.1 345 4 2 7.0 3.8 | -10.2 13.6 295 7 3 7.1 3.9
20000 -7.3 18.9 350 5 2 7.0 3.8 | -8.1 17.4 300 6 3 7.1 3.9
19500 -6.2 20.8 355 5 3 7.1 3.9 | -7.1 19.2 305 6 3 7.2 4.0
19000 -5.2 22.6 005 6 3 7.1 3.9 | -6.0 21.2 310 6 3 7.5 4.1
18500 -4.1 24.6 010 6 3 7.2 3.9 | -4.9 23.2 320 5 2 7.5 4.1
18000 -3.0 26.6 020 6 3 7.9 4.4 | -3.7 25.3 330 4 2 8.3 4.6
17500 -1.8 28.8 030 5 3 7.9 4.3 | -1.9 28.6 335 3 2 8.4 4.6
17000 -0.7 30.7 040 5 3 8.0 4.4 | -0.7 30.7 340 3 2 8.7 4.8
16500 0.5 32.9 050 4 2 8.1 4.4 | 0.6 33.1 340 3 1 8.8 4.8
16000 1.7 35.1 060 3 2 8.2 4.5 | 1.9 35.4 335 3 1 8.8 4.8
15500 2.9 37.2 080 2 1 8.7 4.8 | 3.2 37.8 325 3 1 8.7 4.8
15000 4.2 39.6 115 2 1 8.8 4.8 | 4.5 40.1 315 3 2 8.7 4.8
14500 5.4 41.7 155 1 1 7.9 4.3 | 5.7 42.3 310 3 2 8.1 4.5
14000 6.6 43.9 225 1 1 8.0 4.4 | 6.8 44.2 310 4 2 8.4 4.6
13500 7.7 45.9 255 2 1 7.7 4.2 | 7.9 46.2 315 4 2 6.3 3.4
13000 8.8 47.8 270 3 2 7.7 4.2 | 8.8 47.8 325 3 2 6.5 3.5
12500 9.9 49.8 275 4 2 7.4 4.1 | 9.5 49.1 345 2 1 3.8 2.1
12000 11.0 51.8 270 5 3 7.3 4.0 | 9.8 49.6 070 3 1 3.0 1.6
11500 12.1 53.8 270 5 3 7.4 4.1 | 10.4 50.7 095 5 3 8.7 4.8
11000 13.0 55.4 255 4 2 5.3 2.9 | 11.7 53.1 095 6 3 7.8 4.3
10500 13.8 56.8 235 4 2 5.0 2.8 | 12.9 55.2 100 7 4 10.7 5.9
10250 14.1 57.4 210 3 2 2.9 1.6 | 13.8 56.8 100 7 4 10.6 5.8
10000 14.2 57.6 180 3 1 1.0 0.5 | 14.4 57.9 100 7 4 8.2 4.5
9750 14.2 57.6 155 3 2 0.4 0.2 | 15.1 59.2 100 8 4 8.6 4.7
9500 14.2 57.6 135 4 2 1.3 0.7 | 15.7 60.3 100 8 4 9.2 5.1
9250 14.3 57.7 120 5 3 1.4 0.8 | 16.4 61.5 105 8 4 9.8 5.4
9000 14.3 57.7 110 7 3 3.1 1.7 | 17.2 63.0 105 8 4 9.5 5.2
8750 14.6 58.3 105 8 4 5.1 2.8 | 17.9 64.2 105 9 4 9.6 5.2
8500 15.0 59.0 100 9 5 7.2 3.9 | 18.6 65.5 105 9 5 9.9 5.4
8250 15.6 60.1 100 9 5 9.0 5.0 | 19.3 66.7 105 9 5 10.0 5.5
8000 16.2 61.2 100 10 5 8.6 4.7 | 20.1 68.2 105 9 5 10.0 5.5
7750 16.9 62.4 100 11 5 9.4 5.2 | 20.8 69.4 105 9 5 10.5 5.8
7500 17.6 63.7 100 11 6 9.9 5.4 | 21.6 70.9 105 10 5 10.9 6.0
7250 18.4 65.1 095 11 6 10.3 5.6 | 22.4 72.3 110 10 5 11.6 6.3
7000 19.1 66.4 095 11 6 9.4 5.1 | 23.3 73.9 110 10 5 9.2 5.1
6750 19.9 67.8 095 11 6 13.2 7.2 | 24.0 75.2 110 10 5 14.4 7.9
6500 21.2 70.2 095 11 6 22.3 12.2 | 25.7 78.3 110 10 5 30.1 16.5
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
07/17/2024 at 1500 MDT | 07/17/2024 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +572.9 LI... -2.9 | CAPE... +333.5 LI... -2.6
CINH... -0.6 K Index... +33.6 | CINH... -18.1 K Index... +34.2
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.3 -83.7 350 13 7 2.5 1.4 | -64.5 -84.1 360 13 7 2.7 1.5
45000 -58.5 -73.3 340 14 7 5.5 3.0 | -58.8 -73.8 330 18 9 5.0 2.8
40000 -49.7 -57.5 320 18 9 7.4 4.0 | -50.3 -58.5 315 29 15 8.2 4.5
38000 -45.3 -49.5 320 20 10 7.4 4.0 | -45.4 -49.7 305 29 15 8.2 4.5
36000 -40.9 -41.6 325 23 12 7.5 4.1 | -40.5 -40.9 300 29 15 7.9 4.3
34000 -36.4 -33.5 320 20 11 7.5 4.1 | -35.8 -32.4 295 24 13 7.8 4.3
32000 -31.9 -25.4 310 18 9 7.5 4.1 | -31.2 -24.2 290 20 10 7.7 4.2
30000 -27.0 -16.6 305 19 10 7.3 4.0 | -26.5 -15.7 285 14 7 7.1 3.9
29000 -24.9 -12.8 305 20 10 7.4 4.0 | -24.4 -11.9 280 12 6 7.1 3.9
28000 -22.8 -9.0 300 20 10 6.6 3.6 | -22.4 -8.3 270 10 5 6.6 3.6
27000 -20.8 -5.4 300 19 10 6.6 3.6 | -20.4 -4.7 270 8 4 6.7 3.7
26000 -18.9 -2.0 300 18 9 6.6 3.6 | -18.4 -1.1 265 7 4 6.7 3.7
25000 -17.0 1.4 300 16 8 5.9 3.3 | -16.5 2.3 255 6 3 5.8 3.2
24000 -15.3 4.5 295 15 8 5.7 3.2 | -14.9 5.2 245 6 3 5.5 3.0
23000 -13.6 7.5 295 15 8 5.8 3.2 | -13.3 8.1 235 6 3 5.5 3.0
22000 -11.9 10.6 290 14 7 6.8 3.7 | -11.6 11.1 225 6 3 6.8 3.7
21000 -9.8 14.4 285 13 7 7.0 3.8 | -9.6 14.7 215 7 3 7.1 3.9
20000 -7.7 18.1 285 12 6 7.0 3.8 | -7.5 18.5 205 8 4 7.2 3.9
19500 -6.7 19.9 280 11 6 6.8 3.7 | -6.5 20.3 200 8 4 7.2 3.9
19000 -5.8 21.6 280 10 5 6.4 3.5 | -5.4 22.3 195 8 4 7.3 4.0
18500 -4.9 23.2 280 8 4 6.4 3.5 | -4.4 24.1 185 9 5 7.3 4.0
18000 -4.0 24.8 280 6 3 6.5 3.6 | -3.4 25.9 175 10 5 7.1 3.9
17500 -3.1 26.4 275 5 2 6.6 3.6 | -2.4 27.7 165 10 5 7.0 3.8
17000 -1.7 28.9 250 2 1 8.0 4.4 | -1.4 29.5 155 11 6 7.0 3.9
16500 -0.6 30.9 205 2 1 8.2 4.5 | -0.4 31.3 150 12 6 7.1 3.9
16000 0.6 33.1 165 2 1 8.7 4.8 | 0.6 33.1 145 12 6 7.0 3.8
15500 1.9 35.4 155 3 2 9.2 5.1 | 2.3 36.1 140 14 7 8.6 4.7
15000 3.2 37.8 150 4 2 9.2 5.1 | 3.6 38.5 135 15 8 8.6 4.7
14500 4.6 40.3 145 5 3 9.5 5.2 | 4.9 40.8 135 15 8 9.7 5.3
14000 6.0 42.8 145 6 3 9.5 5.2 | 6.3 43.3 130 16 8 9.6 5.3
13500 7.4 45.3 140 6 3 9.4 5.2 | 7.8 46.0 130 16 8 9.5 5.2
13000 8.8 47.8 140 7 3 9.4 5.2 | 9.2 48.6 125 16 8 9.5 5.2
12500 10.2 50.4 140 7 4 9.4 5.2 | 10.6 51.1 125 16 8 9.6 5.2
12000 11.6 52.9 140 8 4 9.5 5.2 | 12.0 53.6 125 16 8 9.8 5.4
11500 12.9 55.2 140 8 4 9.2 5.0 | 13.3 55.9 120 16 8 8.4 4.6
11000 14.4 57.9 140 9 4 9.9 5.4 | 14.7 58.5 120 16 8 9.6 5.3
10500 15.8 60.4 140 9 5 8.8 4.8 | 16.1 61.0 115 16 8 7.0 3.9
10250 16.5 61.7 140 9 5 9.2 5.0 | 16.6 61.9 115 16 8 7.3 4.0
10000 17.2 63.0 135 10 5 10.4 5.7 | 17.3 63.1 115 15 8 10.4 5.7
9750 18.0 64.4 135 10 5 10.1 5.5 | 18.0 64.4 110 15 8 9.7 5.3
9500 18.7 65.7 135 10 5 10.1 5.5 | 18.7 65.7 110 15 8 9.0 5.0
9250 19.5 67.1 135 11 5 10.0 5.5 | 19.4 66.9 110 15 7 8.2 4.5
9000 20.2 68.4 135 11 6 9.8 5.4 | 20.0 68.0 105 14 7 8.9 4.9
8750 20.9 69.6 135 11 6 9.7 5.3 | 20.7 69.3 105 14 7 9.1 5.0
8500 21.7 71.1 135 11 6 9.8 5.4 | 21.3 70.3 105 14 7 8.6 4.7
8250 22.4 72.3 135 12 6 9.6 5.3 | 21.9 71.4 100 13 7 8.0 4.4
8000 23.1 73.6 135 12 6 10.2 5.6 | 22.5 72.5 100 13 7 8.9 4.9
7750 23.9 75.0 135 12 6 10.9 6.0 | 23.2 73.8 100 12 6 10.0 5.5
7500 24.7 76.5 135 12 6 10.5 5.8 | 24.0 75.2 100 12 6 9.2 5.0
7250 25.5 77.9 135 12 6 10.8 5.9 | 24.6 76.3 095 12 6 8.6 4.7
7000 26.2 79.2 135 12 6 9.2 5.1 | 25.3 77.5 095 11 6 8.8 4.8
6750 27.0 80.6 130 12 6 14.8 8.1 | 26.0 78.8 095 11 6 11.7 6.4
6500 28.7 83.7 130 12 6 30.2 16.6 | 27.0 80.6 095 10 5 16.4 9.0
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Moriarty Municipal Airport site in Moriarty, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 34.9781667 deg
West Longitude: 106.0000278 deg
Elevation: 6204.2 feet (1891.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
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