Soaring Forecast for Moriarty NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0729 MDT Tuesday March 11 2025
This forecast is for Tuesday, March 11, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 56.5 F/13.6 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
Maximum rate of lift........................ 645 ft/min (3.3 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 14247 ft MSL (7919 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 65.0 F/18.8 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1130 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 12187 ft MSL (5859 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Wednesday 03/12.... Good
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:19:15 / 19:08:25 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 49 min 10 sec (709 min 10 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:13:50 MDT... 51.50 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 03/11/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 11003 ft MSL (4675 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 22377 ft MSL (16049 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 20375 ft MSL (14046 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +3.8
K index......................... -28.0
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -59.2 -74.6 235 78 40 3.2 1.8 92.9 199.3 43.6 M M
45000 -54.5 -66.1 240 94 48 2.2 1.2 78.2 172.7 37.2 M M
40000 -51.0 -59.8 245 101 52 2.3 1.3 60.5 140.8 28.0 M M
38000 -50.2 -58.4 250 97 50 0.5 0.3 51.8 125.3 23.0 M M
36000 -49.9 -57.8 255 90 46 0.5 0.3 43.9 111.0 18.0 M M
34000 -49.2 -56.6 260 79 41 3.1 1.7 37.0 98.5 13.5 M M
32000 -47.3 -53.1 260 57 29 3.2 1.7 31.4 88.5 9.7 M M
30000 -44.4 -47.9 260 41 21 8.7 4.8 27.5 81.5 7.0 M M
29000 -41.8 -43.2 255 43 22 8.8 4.8 27.1 80.7 6.7 M M
28000 -39.1 -38.4 255 44 23 8.8 4.8 26.8 80.2 6.6 M M
27000 -36.5 -33.7 255 46 24 8.5 4.7 26.5 79.8 6.5 M M
26000 -34.0 -29.2 255 42 22 8.3 4.6 25.9 78.6 6.0 M M
25000 -31.5 -24.7 260 38 20 8.3 4.6 25.4 77.6 5.7 M M
24000 -29.0 -20.2 260 35 18 8.6 4.7 24.9 76.9 5.4 M M
23000 -26.3 -15.3 265 32 16 9.0 4.9 24.6 76.2 5.1 M M
22000 -23.6 -10.5 265 29 15 9.0 4.9 24.3 75.7 5.0 M M
21000 -20.9 -5.6 270 26 14 8.5 4.7 24.1 75.3 4.8 M M
20000 -17.8 -0.0 265 26 13 8.4 4.6 23.4 74.1 4.3 M M
19500 -16.5 2.3 265 26 13 8.4 4.6 23.2 73.7 4.2 M M
19000 -15.2 4.6 265 26 13 8.5 4.7 23.0 73.3 4.0 M M
18500 -14.1 6.6 265 25 13 7.0 3.8 22.7 72.8 3.8 M M
18000 -13.0 8.6 265 25 13 7.0 3.9 22.2 71.9 3.4 M M
17500 -11.9 10.6 265 24 12 7.0 3.8 21.7 71.1 3.0 M M
17000 -10.9 12.4 265 24 12 6.8 3.8 21.2 70.2 2.6 M M
16500 -9.9 14.2 265 23 12 6.8 3.8 20.8 69.4 2.2 M M
16000 -8.9 16.0 265 23 12 6.8 3.7 20.3 68.5 1.7 M M
15500 -7.8 18.0 265 23 12 6.9 3.8 19.8 67.6 1.3 M M
15000 -6.9 19.6 265 24 12 6.1 3.4 19.2 66.6 0.8 M M
14500 -6.0 21.2 265 24 12 6.0 3.3 18.6 65.5 0.2 M M
14000 -5.1 22.8 265 24 12 5.4 2.9 18.0 64.4 -0.3 622 3.2
13500 -4.4 24.1 260 24 12 5.0 2.7 17.2 63.0 -1.1 585 3.0
13000 -3.6 25.5 260 24 12 5.1 2.8 16.5 61.6 -1.8 548 2.8
12500 -2.9 26.8 260 23 12 5.2 2.8 15.7 60.3 -2.6 511 2.6
12000 -2.1 28.2 265 22 11 5.9 3.2 15.0 59.0 -3.3 474 2.4
11500 -1.1 30.0 270 21 11 7.0 3.9 14.5 58.1 -3.7 429 2.2
11000 -0.0 32.0 275 21 11 7.9 4.3 14.1 57.5 -4.1 381 1.9
10500 1.2 34.2 285 21 11 8.3 4.5 13.9 57.0 -4.4 330 1.7
10250 1.8 35.2 285 21 11 8.2 4.5 13.8 56.8 -4.5 304 1.5
10000 2.4 36.3 290 21 11 8.1 4.4 13.7 56.6 -4.7 278 1.4
9750 3.0 37.4 290 21 11 8.1 4.5 13.5 56.3 -4.8 253 1.3
9500 3.6 38.5 295 22 11 8.1 4.4 13.4 56.1 -5.0 228 1.2
9250 4.2 39.6 295 22 12 8.3 4.6 13.3 55.9 -5.1 202 1.0
9000 4.8 40.6 300 23 12 7.9 4.3 13.2 55.7 -5.2 176 0.9
8750 5.4 41.7 300 23 12 6.4 3.5 13.0 55.3 -5.5 153 0.8
8500 5.8 42.4 300 23 12 5.8 3.2 12.7 54.8 -5.8 132 0.7
8250 6.2 43.2 300 23 12 6.1 3.4 12.4 54.3 -6.1 112 0.6
8000 6.7 44.1 300 22 11 6.8 3.7 12.1 53.8 -6.3 90 0.5
7750 7.2 45.0 295 21 11 5.8 3.2 11.9 53.4 -6.6 68 0.3
7500 7.6 45.7 295 21 11 6.7 3.7 11.6 52.8 -6.9 48 0.2
7250 8.1 46.6 290 20 10 1.4 0.7 11.3 52.3 -7.3 28 0.1
7000 7.8 46.0 290 19 10 -5.2 -2.9 10.3 50.5 -8.3 28 0.1
6750 7.4 45.3 285 17 9 -7.7 -4.2 9.1 48.4 -9.4 33 0.2
6500 6.4 43.5 280 14 7 -21.0 -11.5 7.4 45.3 -11.2 56 0.3
6250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
03/11/2025 at 0900 MDT | 03/11/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +6.7 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +6.6
CINH... -0.2 K Index... -27.6 | CINH... -0.7 K Index... -21.7
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -59.8 -75.6 235 79 41 2.9 1.6 | -60.9 -77.6 235 78 40 2.0 1.1
45000 -55.5 -67.9 240 90 46 2.1 1.2 | -57.8 -72.0 240 88 45 3.3 1.8
40000 -52.2 -62.0 245 98 51 2.2 1.2 | -53.0 -63.4 245 92 47 3.2 1.7
38000 -51.6 -60.9 245 95 49 0.0 0.0 | -51.7 -61.1 245 91 47 1.5 0.8
36000 -51.6 -60.9 250 86 44 0.0 0.0 | -50.8 -59.4 245 88 45 1.5 0.8
34000 -50.8 -59.4 250 74 38 4.3 2.4 | -49.5 -57.1 245 81 42 3.4 1.8
32000 -48.2 -54.8 250 56 29 4.4 2.4 | -47.4 -53.3 240 62 32 3.4 1.9
30000 -44.7 -48.5 250 42 22 9.1 5.0 | -44.5 -48.1 240 49 25 8.7 4.8
29000 -41.9 -43.4 245 41 21 9.2 5.1 | -41.8 -43.2 235 48 25 8.8 4.8
28000 -39.2 -38.6 245 40 20 9.2 5.1 | -39.2 -38.6 235 48 25 8.8 4.8
27000 -36.4 -33.5 245 38 20 8.5 4.7 | -36.6 -33.9 235 48 25 8.5 4.7
26000 -33.9 -29.0 245 37 19 8.3 4.5 | -34.0 -29.2 235 47 24 8.4 4.6
25000 -31.5 -24.7 245 36 19 8.3 4.5 | -31.5 -24.7 235 46 24 8.4 4.6
24000 -29.0 -20.2 245 35 18 8.4 4.6 | -29.0 -20.2 235 45 23 8.4 4.6
23000 -26.4 -15.5 245 31 16 8.6 4.7 | -26.5 -15.7 235 43 22 8.3 4.6
22000 -23.8 -10.8 240 28 14 8.6 4.7 | -24.0 -11.2 235 41 21 8.3 4.6
21000 -21.2 -6.2 240 24 13 8.8 4.8 | -21.5 -6.7 235 39 20 8.7 4.8
20000 -17.9 -0.2 240 25 13 8.8 4.8 | -18.9 -2.0 235 39 20 8.8 4.8
19500 -16.6 2.1 240 25 13 8.8 4.8 | -17.6 0.3 235 39 20 8.8 4.8
19000 -15.3 4.5 240 26 13 8.9 4.9 | -15.6 3.9 235 38 20 8.8 4.8
18500 -14.0 6.8 240 26 13 8.0 4.4 | -14.3 6.3 235 38 20 8.1 4.4
18000 -12.8 9.0 245 26 14 8.0 4.4 | -13.1 8.4 235 38 19 8.1 4.5
17500 -11.6 11.1 245 27 14 7.5 4.1 | -11.9 10.6 235 37 19 7.7 4.2
17000 -10.5 13.1 245 27 14 7.0 3.8 | -10.8 12.6 235 37 19 7.3 4.0
16500 -9.5 14.9 245 27 14 6.9 3.8 | -9.7 14.5 235 36 19 7.1 3.9
16000 -8.5 16.7 250 26 14 5.8 3.2 | -8.8 16.2 235 35 18 5.4 3.0
15500 -7.7 18.1 250 27 14 6.0 3.3 | -7.9 17.8 235 35 18 5.5 3.0
15000 -6.8 19.8 255 27 14 4.8 2.6 | -7.1 19.2 240 33 17 5.4 2.9
14500 -6.1 21.0 255 27 14 4.8 2.6 | -6.3 20.7 240 32 16 5.4 3.0
14000 -5.4 22.3 260 28 14 4.3 2.4 | -5.5 22.1 245 30 15 4.9 2.7
13500 -4.8 23.4 265 28 15 4.2 2.3 | -4.8 23.4 250 28 14 4.7 2.6
13000 -4.2 24.4 265 29 15 4.7 2.6 | -4.1 24.6 255 25 13 3.5 1.9
12500 -3.4 25.9 270 29 15 5.2 2.8 | -3.8 25.2 260 23 12 2.5 1.4
12000 -2.7 27.1 275 29 15 5.4 3.0 | -3.5 25.7 270 21 11 4.3 2.3
11500 -1.8 28.8 280 29 15 5.7 3.1 | -2.6 27.3 280 20 10 6.6 3.6
11000 -1.0 30.2 285 29 15 6.6 3.6 | -1.5 29.3 285 20 10 8.8 4.8
10500 0.1 32.2 290 29 15 7.1 3.9 | -0.1 31.8 285 19 10 9.4 5.2
10250 0.6 33.1 295 29 15 6.9 3.8 | 0.6 33.1 290 19 10 9.3 5.1
10000 1.1 34.0 295 29 15 7.6 4.2 | 1.3 34.3 290 19 10 9.3 5.1
9750 1.7 35.1 295 29 15 8.4 4.6 | 2.0 35.6 290 19 10 9.6 5.3
9500 2.3 36.1 300 29 15 8.1 4.5 | 2.7 36.9 290 19 10 9.3 5.1
9250 2.9 37.2 300 29 15 8.4 4.6 | 3.4 38.1 290 19 10 10.1 5.6
9000 3.5 38.3 300 29 15 8.0 4.4 | 4.2 39.6 290 20 10 10.6 5.8
8750 4.1 39.4 300 28 15 7.0 3.8 | 5.0 41.0 290 19 10 9.2 5.0
8500 4.6 40.3 300 28 14 6.7 3.7 | 5.6 42.1 295 19 10 8.4 4.6
8250 5.1 41.2 300 27 14 6.9 3.8 | 6.3 43.3 295 19 10 9.3 5.1
8000 5.6 42.1 300 25 13 7.2 3.9 | 7.0 44.6 295 19 10 10.6 5.8
7750 6.1 43.0 300 24 12 6.2 3.4 | 7.8 46.0 295 19 10 10.0 5.5
7500 6.5 43.7 300 22 12 6.2 3.4 | 8.5 47.3 295 19 10 9.0 4.9
7250 7.0 44.6 295 21 11 4.0 2.2 | 9.2 48.6 295 19 10 10.5 5.8
7000 7.1 44.8 290 19 10 1.6 0.9 | 10.1 50.2 295 19 10 12.4 6.8
6750 7.3 45.1 285 17 9 2.4 1.3 | 11.0 51.8 295 18 9 10.7 5.9
6500 7.5 45.5 280 14 7 3.7 2.1 | 11.8 53.2 295 17 9 15.2 8.3
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
03/11/2025 at 1500 MDT | 03/11/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.1 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.0
CINH... -0.0 K Index... -9.7 | CINH... -0.1 K Index... +7.7
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -59.5 -75.1 240 77 40 1.8 1.0 | -59.5 -75.1 240 71 37 1.6 0.9
45000 -56.5 -69.7 240 87 45 3.6 2.0 | -57.1 -70.8 240 83 43 2.3 1.3
40000 -51.5 -60.7 245 94 48 3.4 1.8 | -52.6 -62.7 245 97 50 2.9 1.6
38000 -50.4 -58.7 245 97 50 0.4 0.2 | -51.6 -60.9 250 100 52 0.8 0.5
36000 -50.2 -58.4 245 100 51 0.4 0.2 | -51.1 -60.0 250 103 53 0.8 0.5
34000 -49.7 -57.5 245 100 51 3.9 2.1 | -50.2 -58.4 255 103 53 5.8 3.2
32000 -47.4 -53.3 240 78 40 3.5 1.9 | -47.0 -52.6 255 95 49 5.3 2.9
30000 -44.6 -48.3 240 61 32 8.0 4.4 | -43.2 -45.8 255 83 43 6.8 3.8
29000 -42.2 -44.0 240 58 30 8.1 4.5 | -41.2 -42.2 255 73 37 6.9 3.8
28000 -39.7 -39.5 240 55 28 8.2 4.5 | -39.1 -38.4 255 62 32 6.9 3.8
27000 -37.3 -35.1 235 52 27 7.9 4.3 | -37.0 -34.6 255 52 27 7.6 4.2
26000 -35.0 -31.0 235 51 26 7.7 4.2 | -34.6 -30.3 255 51 26 8.3 4.6
25000 -32.7 -26.9 235 51 26 7.7 4.2 | -32.1 -25.8 255 49 25 8.3 4.6
24000 -30.4 -22.7 235 50 26 7.7 4.2 | -29.6 -21.3 250 47 24 8.3 4.5
23000 -28.0 -18.4 235 48 25 8.0 4.4 | -27.2 -17.0 250 48 25 8.0 4.4
22000 -25.7 -14.3 235 46 23 8.0 4.4 | -24.8 -12.6 250 48 25 8.0 4.4
21000 -23.3 -9.9 235 43 22 8.2 4.5 | -22.4 -8.3 245 49 25 6.4 3.5
20000 -20.8 -5.4 240 42 22 8.3 4.6 | -20.9 -5.6 245 48 24 5.2 2.9
19500 -19.5 -3.1 240 41 21 8.3 4.6 | -20.1 -4.2 245 47 24 5.2 2.9
19000 -18.3 -0.9 240 40 21 8.3 4.6 | -19.4 -2.9 245 46 24 5.3 2.9
18500 -17.0 1.4 245 40 20 8.1 4.4 | -18.6 -1.5 245 45 23 5.1 2.8
18000 -15.3 4.5 245 37 19 7.6 4.2 | -17.9 -0.2 240 41 21 4.7 2.6
17500 -14.1 6.6 245 36 19 7.4 4.1 | -16.9 1.6 240 34 18 5.3 2.9
17000 -13.0 8.6 250 34 18 7.2 3.9 | -16.0 3.2 245 29 15 6.1 3.4
16500 -12.0 10.4 250 32 17 7.2 3.9 | -15.1 4.8 245 24 13 6.0 3.3
16000 -10.9 12.4 250 31 16 7.0 3.9 | -13.9 7.0 250 22 11 9.6 5.3
15500 -9.8 14.4 250 29 15 7.1 3.9 | -12.5 9.5 250 20 10 9.2 5.1
15000 -8.9 16.0 255 28 14 5.6 3.1 | -11.1 12.0 255 19 10 9.4 5.2
14500 -8.1 17.4 255 26 14 5.4 3.0 | -9.7 14.5 255 19 10 9.5 5.2
14000 -7.3 18.9 255 25 13 4.6 2.5 | -8.3 17.1 255 18 9 9.7 5.3
13500 -6.7 19.9 260 23 12 4.3 2.4 | -6.8 19.8 255 18 9 9.8 5.3
13000 -6.2 20.8 265 21 11 6.5 3.6 | -5.4 22.3 260 18 9 9.7 5.3
12500 -4.9 23.2 265 20 10 8.9 4.9 | -3.9 25.0 260 17 9 9.7 5.3
12000 -3.5 25.7 265 19 10 9.2 5.1 | -2.5 27.5 260 17 9 9.8 5.4
11500 -2.1 28.2 265 19 10 9.6 5.3 | -1.0 30.2 260 17 9 10.0 5.5
11000 -0.7 30.7 265 19 10 9.3 5.1 | 0.4 32.7 260 17 9 9.4 5.2
10500 0.7 33.3 270 19 10 9.8 5.4 | 1.9 35.4 265 16 8 10.2 5.6
10250 1.5 34.7 270 19 10 9.0 4.9 | 2.7 36.9 265 16 8 9.9 5.4
10000 2.1 35.8 270 19 10 8.8 4.8 | 3.4 38.1 265 16 8 9.4 5.1
9750 2.8 37.0 270 19 10 9.7 5.3 | 4.1 39.4 265 16 8 9.5 5.2
9500 3.5 38.3 270 19 10 9.4 5.1 | 4.8 40.6 265 16 8 9.4 5.1
9250 4.2 39.6 270 19 10 10.3 5.7 | 5.5 41.9 265 16 8 9.8 5.4
9000 5.1 41.2 270 19 10 11.2 6.1 | 6.3 43.3 265 16 8 10.9 6.0
8750 5.9 42.6 270 19 10 9.6 5.3 | 7.1 44.8 265 16 8 9.9 5.5
8500 6.5 43.7 270 19 10 8.6 4.7 | 7.8 46.0 270 16 8 8.8 4.8
8250 7.2 45.0 270 19 10 9.2 5.1 | 8.5 47.3 270 16 8 9.4 5.2
8000 7.9 46.2 270 19 10 10.2 5.6 | 9.2 48.6 270 16 8 10.6 5.8
7750 8.7 47.7 270 19 10 10.3 5.6 | 10.0 50.0 270 16 8 10.1 5.5
7500 9.4 48.9 270 18 9 9.6 5.3 | 10.7 51.3 270 16 8 9.1 5.0
7250 10.2 50.4 270 18 9 10.5 5.8 | 11.4 52.5 270 15 8 9.6 5.3
7000 11.0 51.8 270 18 9 11.8 6.5 | 12.1 53.8 270 15 8 10.2 5.6
6750 11.9 53.4 270 17 9 10.9 6.0 | 12.9 55.2 270 14 7 9.9 5.4
6500 12.8 55.0 270 16 8 15.3 8.4 | 13.6 56.5 270 13 7 9.7 5.3
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Moriarty Municipal Airport site in Moriarty, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 34.9781667 deg
West Longitude: 106.0000278 deg
Elevation: 6204.2 feet (1891.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
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