Soaring Forecast for Moriarty NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0722 MDT Saturday November 2 2024
This forecast is for Saturday, November 2, 2024:
If the trigger temperature of 62.8 F/17.1 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 815 ft/min (4.1 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 15250 ft MSL (8921 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 68.0 F/20.5 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1200 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 10065 ft MSL (3737 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 11/03....... Excellent
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:26:42 / 18:08:19 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 41 min 38 sec (641 min 38 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:47:31 MDT... 39.85 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 11/02/2024 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 12507 ft MSL (6178 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 16600 ft MSL (10271 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 16250 ft MSL (9921 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +2.3
K index......................... +13.4
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -62.7 -80.9 235 42 21 1.2 0.7 87.1 188.7 39.2 M M
45000 -60.7 -77.3 230 52 27 2.2 1.2 67.7 153.9 29.7 M M
40000 -57.5 -71.5 225 64 33 2.2 1.2 50.1 122.2 20.1 M M
38000 -54.9 -66.8 220 67 35 4.3 2.3 43.9 111.0 16.4 M M
36000 -52.3 -62.1 215 70 36 4.3 2.4 39.3 102.7 13.6 M M
34000 -48.7 -55.7 215 70 36 7.9 4.4 36.2 97.2 11.7 M M
32000 -44.0 -47.2 215 67 35 8.0 4.4 34.7 94.5 10.9 M M
30000 -39.0 -38.2 215 62 32 8.6 4.7 33.6 92.4 10.3 M M
29000 -36.4 -33.5 215 58 30 8.6 4.7 33.1 91.6 10.1 M M
28000 -33.8 -28.8 215 54 28 8.6 4.7 32.8 91.0 10.0 M M
27000 -31.4 -24.5 215 50 26 7.2 4.0 32.2 89.9 9.6 M M
26000 -29.2 -20.6 215 46 24 7.3 4.0 31.2 88.1 9.0 M M
25000 -27.0 -16.6 210 43 22 7.3 4.0 30.3 86.6 8.3 M M
24000 -24.8 -12.6 210 40 20 6.8 3.7 29.5 85.0 7.7 M M
23000 -22.8 -9.0 210 38 20 6.8 3.7 28.3 82.9 6.8 M M
22000 -20.8 -5.4 210 37 19 6.8 3.7 27.2 81.0 6.0 M M
21000 -18.8 -1.8 210 36 19 6.6 3.6 26.2 79.2 5.2 M M
20000 -16.4 2.5 220 37 19 6.7 3.7 24.8 76.7 4.0 M M
19500 -15.4 4.3 220 37 19 6.7 3.7 24.3 75.7 3.5 M M
19000 -14.4 6.1 220 37 19 6.7 3.7 23.8 74.9 3.1 M M
18500 -13.4 7.9 225 37 19 6.6 3.6 23.3 73.9 2.7 M M
18000 -12.4 9.7 225 37 19 6.6 3.6 22.7 72.9 2.2 M M
17500 -11.4 11.5 225 36 19 7.1 3.9 22.2 72.0 1.8 M M
17000 -10.4 13.3 225 36 18 7.2 3.9 21.8 71.2 1.3 M M
16500 -9.3 15.3 225 35 18 7.4 4.1 21.4 70.5 0.9 M M
16000 -8.3 17.1 220 34 18 7.7 4.2 21.0 69.8 0.5 M M
15500 -7.2 19.0 220 33 17 7.8 4.3 20.7 69.2 0.1 M M
15000 -6.1 21.0 220 32 17 7.9 4.3 20.4 68.7 -0.2 786 4.0
14500 -4.9 23.2 220 31 16 7.9 4.3 20.1 68.1 -0.5 737 3.7
14000 -3.7 25.3 225 30 15 8.1 4.4 19.8 67.6 -0.8 686 3.5
13500 -2.5 27.5 225 29 15 8.1 4.4 19.5 67.1 -1.0 634 3.2
13000 -1.2 29.8 225 27 14 8.0 4.4 19.2 66.6 -1.2 581 3.0
12500 0.0 32.0 220 26 13 8.1 4.4 19.0 66.1 -1.4 529 2.7
12000 1.3 34.3 220 24 12 7.6 4.2 18.7 65.6 -1.7 478 2.4
11500 2.4 36.3 220 22 11 7.4 4.1 18.3 65.0 -2.0 429 2.2
11000 3.6 38.5 220 20 10 8.0 4.4 18.0 64.4 -2.3 379 1.9
10500 4.7 40.5 215 18 9 8.1 4.4 17.7 63.9 -2.6 329 1.7
10250 5.3 41.5 215 17 9 6.9 3.8 17.6 63.6 -2.8 304 1.5
10000 5.8 42.4 215 16 8 7.0 3.8 17.3 63.1 -3.0 283 1.4
9750 6.4 43.5 210 16 8 8.2 4.5 17.1 62.9 -3.2 258 1.3
9500 7.0 44.6 210 15 8 7.7 4.2 17.0 62.6 -3.4 233 1.2
9250 7.5 45.5 210 14 7 8.4 4.6 16.9 62.3 -3.5 208 1.1
9000 8.2 46.8 205 13 7 7.8 4.3 16.8 62.2 -3.6 182 0.9
8750 8.7 47.7 200 12 6 6.3 3.5 16.5 61.8 -3.9 160 0.8
8500 9.1 48.4 200 12 6 6.5 3.6 16.3 61.3 -4.2 139 0.7
8250 9.6 49.3 195 11 6 5.8 3.2 16.0 60.8 -4.4 117 0.6
8000 9.9 49.8 190 10 5 4.6 2.5 15.7 60.2 -4.9 100 0.5
7750 10.1 50.2 190 9 5 3.5 1.9 15.2 59.4 -5.4 85 0.4
7500 10.3 50.5 185 8 4 2.4 1.3 14.7 58.5 -6.0 73 0.4
7250 10.3 50.5 180 7 4 0.1 0.1 14.1 57.4 -6.7 65 0.3
7000 10.2 50.4 175 6 3 -2.5 -1.4 13.2 55.8 -7.6 62 0.3
6750 10.0 50.0 170 4 2 1.4 0.8 12.4 54.3 -8.5 60 0.3
6500 9.8 49.6 160 3 1 -11.3 -6.2 11.6 52.8 -9.4 58 0.3
6250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
11/02/2024 at 0900 MDT | 11/02/2024 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +1.8 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +2.5
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +4.1 | CINH... -0.1 K Index... +4.0
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.1 -81.6 230 42 22 2.1 1.2 | -61.4 -78.5 230 46 24 2.1 1.1
45000 -59.9 -75.8 225 53 28 2.0 1.1 | -58.5 -73.3 225 57 29 0.4 0.2
40000 -56.9 -70.4 220 58 30 2.0 1.1 | -57.9 -72.2 220 64 33 0.5 0.3
38000 -54.4 -65.9 220 63 32 4.3 2.4 | -55.1 -67.2 220 60 31 5.6 3.1
36000 -51.8 -61.2 215 67 35 4.3 2.4 | -51.7 -61.1 225 54 28 5.6 3.1
34000 -48.5 -55.3 210 67 35 7.0 3.8 | -48.1 -54.6 220 50 26 6.7 3.7
32000 -44.3 -47.7 210 62 32 7.0 3.9 | -44.1 -47.4 215 50 26 6.7 3.7
30000 -39.7 -39.5 205 58 30 8.6 4.7 | -39.8 -39.6 215 49 25 7.8 4.3
29000 -37.1 -34.8 205 56 29 8.6 4.7 | -37.5 -35.5 215 47 24 7.8 4.3
28000 -34.5 -30.1 205 53 27 8.6 4.7 | -35.2 -31.4 215 46 23 7.8 4.3
27000 -32.0 -25.6 205 51 26 7.1 3.9 | -32.8 -27.0 215 44 22 8.2 4.5
26000 -29.9 -21.8 205 48 25 7.2 4.0 | -30.4 -22.7 215 42 22 8.1 4.5
25000 -27.7 -17.9 205 46 24 7.2 4.0 | -27.9 -18.2 215 40 21 8.2 4.5
24000 -25.6 -14.1 205 43 22 6.8 3.7 | -25.5 -13.9 215 38 20 6.9 3.8
23000 -23.6 -10.5 205 40 21 6.8 3.7 | -23.5 -10.3 210 36 19 6.7 3.7
22000 -21.5 -6.7 210 37 19 6.8 3.8 | -21.5 -6.7 210 35 18 6.7 3.7
21000 -18.9 -2.0 210 34 18 7.5 4.1 | -18.9 -2.0 210 34 17 7.4 4.1
20000 -16.6 2.1 215 35 18 7.5 4.1 | -16.7 1.9 210 34 17 7.5 4.1
19500 -15.5 4.1 215 35 18 7.5 4.1 | -15.6 3.9 215 34 18 7.5 4.1
19000 -14.4 6.1 215 35 18 7.5 4.1 | -14.5 5.9 215 34 18 7.4 4.1
18500 -13.3 8.1 215 34 18 7.3 4.0 | -13.4 7.9 215 35 18 7.2 4.0
18000 -12.2 10.0 215 34 18 7.3 4.0 | -12.3 9.9 215 35 18 7.3 4.0
17500 -11.0 12.2 215 34 18 7.4 4.1 | -11.2 11.8 215 35 18 6.8 3.7
17000 -9.9 14.2 215 33 17 7.4 4.1 | -10.2 13.6 215 35 18 6.7 3.7
16500 -8.8 16.2 215 33 17 7.1 3.9 | -9.2 15.4 215 36 18 6.8 3.8
16000 -7.8 18.0 220 32 17 6.8 3.8 | -8.1 17.4 220 36 19 7.0 3.9
15500 -6.8 19.8 220 31 16 6.9 3.8 | -7.1 19.2 220 36 19 7.0 3.9
15000 -5.8 21.6 220 31 16 7.1 3.9 | -6.0 21.2 220 36 19 7.2 3.9
14500 -4.8 23.4 220 30 15 7.1 3.9 | -5.0 23.0 220 36 19 7.2 4.0
14000 -3.8 25.2 220 29 15 8.2 4.5 | -3.9 25.0 220 35 18 7.2 4.0
13500 -2.6 27.3 220 28 14 8.2 4.5 | -2.9 26.8 220 33 17 7.4 4.0
13000 -1.4 29.5 220 27 14 8.3 4.6 | -1.9 28.6 220 31 16 7.7 4.2
12500 -0.1 31.8 220 26 13 8.3 4.6 | -0.7 30.7 220 28 15 7.8 4.3
12000 1.1 34.0 225 24 13 8.2 4.5 | 0.4 32.7 215 25 13 8.3 4.6
11500 2.4 36.3 225 23 12 8.2 4.5 | 1.7 35.1 215 23 12 8.5 4.7
11000 3.6 38.5 225 22 11 7.3 4.0 | 2.9 37.2 215 22 11 8.1 4.5
10500 4.7 40.5 220 21 11 7.4 4.1 | 4.2 39.6 215 21 11 8.8 4.8
10250 5.2 41.4 220 20 10 6.5 3.6 | 4.8 40.6 215 20 10 8.2 4.5
10000 5.7 42.3 220 19 10 6.7 3.7 | 5.4 41.7 215 20 10 8.4 4.6
9750 6.2 43.2 215 19 10 7.7 4.2 | 6.1 43.0 215 19 10 9.3 5.1
9500 6.8 44.2 215 18 9 7.3 4.0 | 6.8 44.2 215 19 10 8.8 4.8
9250 7.3 45.1 215 17 9 8.0 4.4 | 7.5 45.5 215 18 9 10.0 5.5
9000 7.9 46.2 210 17 9 7.7 4.2 | 8.2 46.8 215 18 9 10.3 5.6
8750 8.4 47.1 210 16 8 6.4 3.5 | 9.0 48.2 210 17 9 9.2 5.1
8500 8.9 48.0 210 15 8 6.6 3.6 | 9.6 49.3 210 17 9 9.2 5.0
8250 9.3 48.7 210 14 7 5.7 3.2 | 10.3 50.5 210 16 8 9.6 5.3
8000 9.7 49.5 205 13 7 4.4 2.4 | 11.1 52.0 210 16 8 9.9 5.5
7750 9.9 49.8 205 11 6 3.0 1.6 | 11.8 53.2 210 15 8 9.5 5.2
7500 10.1 50.2 200 10 5 1.8 1.0 | 12.5 54.5 210 15 8 9.3 5.1
7250 10.1 50.2 200 8 4 0.6 0.3 | 13.2 55.8 210 15 7 10.2 5.6
7000 10.0 50.0 195 7 3 -0.2 -0.1 | 14.0 57.2 205 14 7 11.1 6.1
6750 10.0 50.0 190 5 3 -0.9 -0.5 | 14.8 58.6 205 13 7 10.1 5.5
6500 9.8 49.6 185 4 2 -0.8 -0.5 | 15.7 60.3 205 12 6 13.7 7.5
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
11/02/2024 at 1500 MDT | 11/02/2024 at 1700 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.2 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.0
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +5.0 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... +2.1
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -61.5 -78.7 230 46 24 2.2 1.2 | -60.5 -76.9 230 45 23 2.3 1.3
45000 -58.4 -73.1 225 58 30 0.9 0.5 | -57.2 -71.0 225 60 31 0.3 0.2
40000 -56.9 -70.4 225 68 35 1.0 0.5 | -56.4 -69.5 225 68 35 0.5 0.3
38000 -55.2 -67.4 225 66 34 4.0 2.2 | -55.2 -67.4 225 66 34 3.0 1.7
36000 -52.5 -62.5 220 61 31 4.0 2.2 | -53.1 -63.6 220 61 31 3.0 1.7
34000 -49.1 -56.4 220 57 29 8.3 4.6 | -50.1 -58.2 220 57 29 8.4 4.6
32000 -44.1 -47.4 225 56 29 8.3 4.5 | -45.1 -49.2 215 56 29 8.3 4.6
30000 -39.4 -38.9 225 53 27 6.9 3.8 | -40.1 -40.2 215 54 28 8.3 4.5
29000 -37.4 -35.3 220 50 26 6.9 3.8 | -37.6 -35.7 215 53 28 8.3 4.5
28000 -35.3 -31.5 215 48 25 6.9 3.8 | -35.1 -31.2 215 52 27 8.3 4.5
27000 -33.1 -27.6 215 45 23 8.0 4.4 | -32.7 -26.9 215 52 27 8.2 4.5
26000 -30.8 -23.4 215 43 22 7.9 4.3 | -30.2 -22.4 220 51 26 8.2 4.5
25000 -28.4 -19.1 215 40 21 7.9 4.3 | -27.7 -17.9 220 50 26 8.2 4.5
24000 -26.0 -14.8 215 38 19 7.6 4.2 | -25.3 -13.5 220 49 25 7.7 4.2
23000 -23.8 -10.8 215 37 19 7.5 4.1 | -23.1 -9.6 220 47 24 7.3 4.0
22000 -21.6 -6.9 215 37 19 7.5 4.1 | -20.8 -5.4 220 46 23 7.3 4.0
21000 -19.4 -2.9 215 36 19 6.8 3.8 | -18.7 -1.7 220 44 23 6.9 3.8
20000 -16.8 1.8 215 36 18 6.9 3.8 | -16.1 3.0 220 42 22 6.9 3.8
19500 -15.8 3.6 215 36 18 6.9 3.8 | -15.1 4.8 220 41 21 6.9 3.8
19000 -14.8 5.4 215 36 18 7.0 3.8 | -14.0 6.8 220 40 21 6.9 3.8
18500 -13.8 7.2 215 35 18 7.2 4.0 | -13.1 8.4 220 39 20 5.6 3.1
18000 -12.7 9.1 215 35 18 7.2 4.0 | -12.2 10.0 220 38 20 5.8 3.2
17500 -11.6 11.1 215 34 17 7.2 3.9 | -11.4 11.5 220 37 19 5.7 3.1
17000 -10.5 13.1 215 33 17 7.2 3.9 | -10.6 12.9 225 35 18 5.7 3.1
16500 -9.5 14.9 215 33 17 7.1 3.9 | -9.7 14.5 225 34 17 5.7 3.2
16000 -8.4 16.9 215 32 17 6.6 3.6 | -8.9 16.0 225 31 16 5.9 3.2
15500 -7.4 18.7 215 32 17 6.8 3.7 | -8.0 17.6 230 29 15 5.8 3.2
15000 -6.6 20.1 215 31 16 4.4 2.4 | -7.1 19.2 235 26 14 7.8 4.3
14500 -6.0 21.2 215 30 15 4.5 2.5 | -5.9 21.4 235 25 13 7.8 4.3
14000 -5.2 22.6 215 29 15 8.5 4.7 | -4.8 23.4 235 23 12 8.3 4.6
13500 -3.8 25.2 210 28 15 9.2 5.1 | -3.5 25.7 235 22 11 8.5 4.7
13000 -2.4 27.7 210 28 14 9.6 5.2 | -2.2 28.0 235 21 11 8.5 4.6
12500 -0.9 30.4 210 28 14 9.7 5.3 | -0.9 30.4 235 21 11 8.4 4.6
12000 0.5 32.9 210 28 14 9.5 5.2 | 0.3 32.5 230 22 11 8.2 4.5
11500 1.9 35.4 210 28 14 9.4 5.2 | 1.5 34.7 225 23 12 8.0 4.4
11000 3.3 37.9 210 28 14 9.7 5.3 | 2.9 37.2 220 26 13 9.9 5.4
10500 4.8 40.6 210 28 14 10.3 5.6 | 4.3 39.7 215 27 14 9.3 5.1
10250 5.6 42.1 210 28 14 9.0 4.9 | 5.0 41.0 215 28 14 8.5 4.7
10000 6.2 43.2 210 28 14 8.8 4.8 | 5.6 42.1 215 29 15 8.6 4.7
9750 6.9 44.4 210 28 14 10.1 5.6 | 6.3 43.3 215 29 15 9.6 5.3
9500 7.7 45.9 210 28 14 9.3 5.1 | 7.0 44.6 215 30 15 9.3 5.1
9250 8.4 47.1 210 28 14 11.2 6.1 | 7.7 45.9 215 30 16 10.1 5.5
9000 9.3 48.7 210 28 14 10.8 5.9 | 8.5 47.3 210 31 16 10.2 5.6
8750 10.0 50.0 210 28 14 8.7 4.8 | 9.2 48.6 210 31 16 9.0 4.9
8500 10.7 51.3 210 28 14 8.9 4.9 | 9.8 49.6 210 31 16 8.7 4.8
8250 11.3 52.3 210 28 14 9.4 5.2 | 10.5 50.9 210 31 16 9.1 5.0
8000 12.1 53.8 210 28 14 10.4 5.7 | 11.2 52.2 210 31 16 10.2 5.6
7750 12.9 55.2 210 28 14 10.0 5.5 | 12.0 53.6 210 30 16 9.6 5.3
7500 13.6 56.5 210 27 14 9.3 5.1 | 12.7 54.9 210 30 15 9.1 5.0
7250 14.3 57.7 210 27 14 10.1 5.5 | 13.3 55.9 210 29 15 8.5 4.6
7000 15.1 59.2 210 26 14 11.1 6.1 | 13.9 57.0 205 27 14 6.9 3.8
6750 15.9 60.6 210 25 13 10.7 5.9 | 14.4 57.9 205 25 13 6.0 3.3
6500 16.8 62.2 210 23 12 14.1 7.7 | 14.7 58.5 205 21 11 2.4 1.3
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Moriarty Municipal Airport site in Moriarty, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 34.9781667 deg
West Longitude: 106.0000278 deg
Elevation: 6204.2 feet (1891.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
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