Balloon Fiesta Climatology

October can be an ideal month for outdoor events. The thunderstorm season has waned and the jet stream is usually still situated to our north. However, on rare occasions, remnants of land-falling tropical systems from the eastern Pacific or western Gulf of Mexico can bring surges of moisture into the state, particularly early in the month. Also, weather systems moving far enough south through the Rocky Mountain region can and do bring strong winds, cooler than normal temperatures and widespread precipitation, including snow! Severe weather, while not common, can occur as it did in 2004.

Always check the latest NWS forecast for the Albuquerque Metro Area prior to attending an outdoor event.

A weather phenomenon known as the "Albuquerque Box" produces an atmospheric wind pattern that results in balloons remaining over the park during the morning hours. Read more about the Albuquerque Box below.

Temperatures & Precipitation Facts for October 1-15

The data listed below includes over 40 years of minimum and maximum temperatures, peak wind gusts, precipitation days and amounts, and average relative humidity for the first fifteen days of October at the Albuquerque International Sunport.

Note: Due to its valley location, morning low temperatures at Balloon Fiesta Park can often be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than at the airport, while daytime maximum temperatures are 1 to 3 degrees warmer. Wind can also vary considerably between the Sunport and the Balloon Fiesta Park since complex terrain features to the east of Albuquerque often result in microscale circulation patterns.

Average minimum temperature at the airport: 48.1 degrees (upper 30s to low 40s at Balloon Fiesta Park).
The coldest morning low recorded at the airport was 30 degrees in 1976, while the warmest morning temperature was 65 degrees in 2015.
Average maximum temperature at the airport: 74.5 degrees (mid to upper 70s at Balloon Fiesta Park).
The coolest afternoon high recorded at the airport was 38 degrees in 1986 and the warmest was 91 in 1979.
Average number of days in the first 15 days of October with precipitation (trace or more): 4 days (3.7).
Most number of days with precipitation (trace or more): 9 days (in 2005), 8 days (in 1974 and 2000), 7 days (in 1986, 2003 and 2004).
1974, 1984, 1986, 1997, 2000, 2005 and 2006 were particularly wet years for the Balloon Fiesta. In 2006, 1.47 inches of rain was recorded at the Albuquerque Sunport on October 9. It was the third consecutive day of rain, leaving the metro area quite wet. Meanwhile only a trace of rain was reported on seven separate occasions: 2012, 2002, 1999, 1979, 1978 and 1976. Absolutely no rain fell in 1995, 1992. 1991 and 1975.
Snow, although rare, has been reported during the balloon fiesta. Snow fell on October 12th in both 1986 (3.2 inches) and 1997 (trace).

October 4-5, 2004 was especially memorable along the Middle Rio Grande Valley, including the Albuquerque Metro Area, as numerous severe thunderstorms struck the region on the night of the 4th, between 1000 pm and 100 am and again on the afternoon of the 5th. One of the more damaging storms hit northwest Albuquerque and Rio Rancho at 12:30 am on the 5th. Paradise Hills was especially hard hit with significant large hail accumulation and damage.

Temperature Extremes, Precipitation, Wind, & Humidity Data
Albuquerque Sunport October 1-15

Charts displaying the weather statistics in the table below are available here.

Year	Lowest Min T	Highest Min T	Lowest Max T	Highest Max T	Average Wind (mph)	Peak Wind Gust (mph)	# of days with precip. (T or >)	Average Relative Humidity (%)	Total Precip. (inches)
1974	41	56	59	80	8.5	34	8	60	0.97
1975	34	48	66	83	9.3	31	0	31	0.00
1976	30	59	60	81	8.7	43	2	36	T
1977	38	60	63	82	9.4	34	2	47	0.75
1978	38	57	67	89	9.1	43	1	35	T
1979	38	58	78	91	7.6	34	1	28	T
1980	38	55	64	90	9.2	38	3	38	0.07
1981	43	56	65	76	9.4	34	4	56	1.39
1982	31	51	58	83	8.6	28	2	40	0.24
1983	42	54	65	78	8.8	28	4	59	0.86
1984	34	54	47	78	7.5	42	6	61	2.34
1985	40	54	63	81	8.4	32	6	56	1.37
1986	31	51	38	80	10.2	32	7	62	1.49
1987	44	54	69	85	8.1	44	2	35	0.16
1988	43	54	67	81	7.8	33	5	51	0.32
1989	45	58	55	85	7.1	36	4	48	0.92
1990	36	56	61	80	7.7	35	2	41	0.09
1991	42	54	75	86	6.7	32	0	32	0.00
1992	35	53	69	84	4.5	38	0	23	0.00
1993	43	52	69	87	8.3	41	4	39	0.20
1994	41	57	62	85	7.0	52	4	42	0.74
1995	40	53	65	82	6.6	40	0	26	0.00
1996	50	56	60	83	6.6	44	3	47	0.69
1997	35	59	67	85	9.0	49	5	42	0.26
1998	36	59	55	83	8.3	38	1	32	0.06
1999	43	57	62	83	7.3	48	2	31	T
2000	38	57	42	89	8.7	44	8	59	1.42
2001	33	58	62	83	8.4	39	5	36	0.14
2002	42	58	62	80	8.1	39	2	38	T
2003	45	63	66	82	7.3	35	7	53	1.58
2004	34	56	59	77	7.3	44	7	58	0.73
2005	43	62	54	81	7.6	56	9	59	0.78
2006	43	61	62	82	8.0	38	5	50	1.70
2007	40	56	64	83	6.6	39	3	37	0.17
2008	38	60	53	82	8.2	58	4	45	1.38
2009	42	57	62	81	8.7	45	4	37	0.21
2010	47	63	72	86	6.8	37	5	40	0.09
2011	38	57	59	81	6.3	43	4	46	1.44
2012	40	58	65	87	7.4	49	2	31	T
2013	38	52	62	83	8.7	60	2	33	0.04
2014	38	58	64	83	7.7	67	5	37	0.16
2015	48	65	67	88	8.2	66	6	46	0.11
2016	44	58	62	85	6.9	38	3	42	0.74
2017	36	63	62	82	6.8	42	3	46	0.04
2018	33	61	42	85	9.6	45	9	54	0.28
2019	36	66	61	79		44	2		0.58
Average	39.4	56.8	61.6	83.1	7.9	41	3.8 days	43%	0.61"

Weather Patterns Associated with the Albuquerque Box

The Albuquerque box is essentially a valley wind pattern which develops under certain "stable" conditions. During the nighttime hours, the air near the ground is cooled by the process of radiation cooling. This process is most efficient with clear skies, low humidity and light wind. Cooler, and therefore more dense, air flows downslope and pools at lower elevations such as along arroyos and river valleys - as depicted in by the white arrows in the figure below. The cool air that pools in the Rio Grande valley is shallow (generally no more than a few hundred feet in depth). During the early morning hours this "drainage wind" flows from north to south down the valley from higher to lower elevations much as any fluid flows downhill. In much of the Albuquerque metro area, including the balloon park, a north wind of generally less than 10 mph can result.

Above the surface, the flow of the air is controlled by synoptic patterns in the atmosphere. The figure to the right depicts the 700 millibar heights, or pressure pattern around 5000 feet above the surface, on October 5th, 2002. High pressure over the southeast states has resulted in a weak southerly flow over central New Mexico.

The stable "river of air" or drainage wind described above occurs below a temperature inversion which separates it from warmer, less dense air above the inversion, just as vinegar is separated from oil by differences in density. The wind direction in the airmass above the shallow inversion can be different than that below the inversion. In an "ideal" box pattern, the wind blows in exactly the opposite direction, with a north wind at the surface (blue arrow) and a south wind above the surface (red arrow), as shown in the figure to the right. A skillful pilot can bring a balloon back to near the point of takeoff by changing altitudes to ride wind currents in different directions. Upon takeoff the pilot first heads south toward downtown, then ascends higher where the winds will take the balloon back north toward the balloon fiesta grounds.

The photo to the right, taken during the 2007 Balloon Fiesta, nicely depicts the low level drainage winds. The photo was taken to the west, and the flags at the north end of Balloon Fiesta Park indicate a north to south wind. On this day, winds aloft were out of the south and southwest. (Photo by J. Wachter)

This wind pattern for which the Albuquerque area is well known occurs under stable conditions during the fall season when generally no strong weather systems are affecting the area. A local study found that on average the "box" circulation occurs about 3 days out of the first 15 days of October. A more recent check of the past 10 years found that the "box" occurs on average about twice between October 5th and 15th. Even on days when the "box" occurs, it dissipates by mid morning as the sun heats the ground, resulting in thermal turbulence which mixes the lower layers of air and eliminates the low level inversion.

Wind roses can help to illustrate the difference in wind patterns from morning to afternoon. The wind roses below depict the frequency and speed of the wind from 12 compass directions. It is important to note that they represent wind measured at the Albuquerque Sunport.

This wind rose depicts the distribution of the wind in October 1985 through 2005, during the early to mid morning hours (900am to 1100am MDT). This wind rose illustrates the persistence of the nocturnal drainage wind in the Rio Grande Valley. Cooler surface air becomes more dense and flows downvalley. While this graphic represents the wind data from the Albuquerque Sunport, the wind at the balloon fiesta grounds is similar though the drainage wind is likely stronger, due to the lower elevation and proximity to the Rio Grande.

This wind rose is also for October, but represents the afternoon hours 100pm through 500 pm MDT. By afternoon, the drainage wind is gone, having been mixed out. The winds tend to become more southwesterly, and usually have higher speeds than the north drainage wind.

Both wind roses illustrate that while winds from the east do not occur frequently during the morning or afternoon, when they do occur the wind speeds are generally strong, often reaching speeds greater than 20 knots.