A Moderate risk of excessive rainfall exists across northwest NM today with a slight risk of excessive rainfall across the remainder of western NM. A Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday morning for much of western NM as well as the Tusas and Jemez Mountains. Saturated soils from the previous flood event will allow for increased runoff. Even persistent light to moderate rainfall could cause flooding in arroyos, urban and poor drainage areas. River rises are expected. There is a moderate to high chance of river flooding on the Animas, La Plata and San Juan rivers, though these rivers may not crest until Monday or Tuesday. Stay away from riverbanks!
Widespread soaking rainfall will continue through Monday morning across much of central and western New Mexico. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of precipitation is expected for most areas, but near 3 inches is expected around Chama and in the mountains near Glenwood. Rain on already saturated soils will increase runoff and the potential for flooding. On Monday above 9000 feet, rain will turn to snow as cooler air moves in.
A slight risk of severe thunderstorms exists this afternoon and tonight. Severe weather may impact portions of west central NM between 2pm and 7pm while greater confidence in severe weather exists along and east of the Rio Grande Valley between 5pm and 2am. Storms will be capable of all hazards, including hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.
Gusty southwest winds will return today. Wind gusts of 35 to 55 mph will be common across western NM and areas just east of the Central Mountain Chain. On Monday, winds will strengthen from the west and northwest behind a cold front. Gusts over 50 mph are expected just east of the Central Mountain Chain, while gusts between 30 and 45 mph will be common elsewhere.
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