The Storm Prediction Center has much of eastern NM outlined in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds this afternoon and evening.
A few thunderstorms will develop over northwestern to west central New Mexico on Monday with very dry air beneath the cloud bases. This will lead to considerable evaporation of rainfall. These dry thunderstorms will produce erratic and gusty winds with a few lightning strikes possibly leading to new wildfires.
Very warm to hot temperatures will prevail on Monday. Modest monsoon moisture will lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over many of the mountains, particularly the southwestern ranges and the central mountain chain. Storms will produce little, if any, measurable rainfall in northwestern to west central New Mexico.
High temperature and probability of precipitation tables indicate that readings will remain hot with a better coverage of showers and storms early this week. Even hotter temperatures with a lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms are forecast late in the week.
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