138
FXAK68 PAFC 081405
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
505 AM AKST Mon Dec 8 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Key Message:
Weather continues to remain active across Southcentral Alaska with
continued threats strong winds and dangerously low wind chills.
Winds will begin to weaken later today, but remaining gusty into the
overnight hours. Blowing snow will subside with decreasing winds.
The cold airmass will be with us well into the workweek.
...Active Warnings and Advisories...
- A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Matanuska Valley
through 1PM Monday for 35 to 50 mph winds with gusts up to 80 mph.
- A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Anchorage and the NW Kenai
Peninsula through 1PM Monday. North winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts
to 45 mph expected. Strongest winds expected along the Knik Arm
from Birchwood southwest, across North and West Anchorage, and along
the coast of the northern Cook Inlet, including Kenai and Nikiski.
- A Blizzard Warning remains in effect through 4PM Monday for
Thompson Pass for ground blizzard conditions. Wind gusts as high as
80 mph expected. Wind chills will remain near -40F.
- A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Copper River
Basin until 4PM Tuesday for very cold wind chills as low as 40 to 50
below.
Discussion:
The Gulf low is starting to elongate as a large ridge over the
western Bering starts to push eastwards and a NE/SW oriented front,
and associated trough, start to push through southern Alaska towards
the Gulf. Scattered showers are still ongoing over the Gulf near the
vicinity of the low, but will shift south and east today as the Gulf
low merges with the approaching trough. Kodiak Island should finally
see improving conditions this morning from the moderate to heavy
snow and strong winds as the low shifts east; however, periods of
light snow will be possible as the incoming front approaches then
moves out into the Gulf.
Strong gap winds that have been ongoing for several days across the
Matanuska Valley, Knik Arm/Cook Inlet, Valdez, and Thompson Pass
will start to gradually decrease today as the pressure gradient
starts to relax. However, gusty winds are likely to continue...just
not as strong as we have seen over the past few days. Valdez may see
periods of strong winds continue as the gradient restrengthens later
this week.
Cold temperatures look to continue for the foreseeable future as
several more reinforcing shot of cold, arctic air continue through
the week. As a result, dangerous wind chills will also continue
through much of the week with the coldest temperatures and wind
chills expected across the Copper River Basin where temperatures
will drop into the -20s to -30s and wind chill values of -40 to -50
degrees.
- PP
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: This morning through Thursday morning)...
Active Products:
* Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley from Kalskag to Stoney until 6PM AKST Monday.
* Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast,
Including Nunivak Island and the Interior Kuskokwim Delta until
1PM AKST Monday.
Discussion:
Very cold temperatures and gusty winds persist across Southwest
Alaska this morning with wind chills 20 to 35 below zero expected
to persist through the day today, especially for communities near
the Western Alaska Range including Lime Village, Sparrevohn, and
Stoney. The strongest winds continue to be observed across Nelson
Island, including the communities of Toksook Bay and Tununak.
Strong winds continue to loft the remaining transportable snow in
these communities, resulting in periods of reduced visibilities
down to under two miles at times. Winds will gradually begin to
diminish throughout today and through the early part of this
week. Additionally, conditions will remain dry and mostly clear
through much of this week as high pressure continues to sit over
Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea/Aleutians.
The next front/low combinations enter the western Bering Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning, bringing a round of rainfall and
potentially some gale-force winds to the Western Aleutians.
Models are in fairly good agreement on the idea that the system
remains mainly confined to the Western Aleutians and the western
Bering as the strong upper level ridge remains centered over the
Aleutian Chain through midweek.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...
The long-term pattern will continue to be dominated by a strong
ridge in the central Bering Sea with quiet conditions across the
Central Aleutians since they will be mostly under the core of the
ridge axis. Across the Western Aleutians, weather will be a little
more active there as the area will be upstream/behind the ridge
and within southerly flow. A weak front will move over the Western
Aleutians both Thursday and another one may possibly clip the
area on Friday. Light rain chances are better for the system on
Thursday as the system on Friday may be a little too far west.
Each system will bring small-craft to gale-force winds across the
marine areas of the Western Aleutians. Rain chances decrease
Saturday and Sunday across the Western Aleutians. The Eastern
Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN), and across the Southern
Mainland will remain downstream/ahead of the large Bering ridge
through the long-term. This will promote more northerly flow, cold
temperatures, and windy conditions; this is especially true
through the favored terrain, gaps, and passes of the Eastern
Aleutians, AKPEN, Resurrection Bay, Passage Canal, Valdez Narrows,
and Thompson Pass. Most of the domain, except for the Western
Aleutians, stays dry through the period. The only exception maybe
Friday into Saturday when a weak shortwave drops down from the
north and brings some light snow to the Kuskokwim Valley and
northern Copper River Basin.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions with gusty northerly winds will continue
through the TAF period. Winds will remain breezy with stiff
northerly winds coming down the Knik Arm and clipping the west
side of Anchorage. Winds decrease significantly going eastward,
likely such that there may be a noticeable difference in speed on
the west side of the terminal vs. east side at times.
&&
$$
695
FXAK69 PAFG 082130
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1230 PM AKST Mon Dec 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold weather is continuing to settle into the Interior this
afternoon. With a transition from cold wind chills that happened
over the weekend, to colder air temperatures through Thursday.
Wednesday night will be the coldest night across much of Northern
Alaska. A weak arctic front will bring snow and low stratus
across the North Slope today and tomorrow. Some relief from the
cold temperatures is expected Thursday night and Friday as a low
pressure moves in from Siberia, brining warmer temperatures and
light snow chances.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Overnight temperatures across the Eastern Interior valleys will
be in the 30s and 40s below 0. The Upper Tanana valley could see
temperatures at or below -50 Wednesday night.
- Winds will slowly weaken in the higher terrain today, and will
remain calm through the week.
- A quick moving feature will bring a round of clouds through the
Eastern Interior tonight. This could help keep the overnight
lows from reaching their coldest potential. By Tuesday night
expect clouds to fully clear across the Eastern Interior.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Cold and calmer weather persists with lows in the single digits
above/below zero along the coast and teens to about 30F below
zero in the Interior until Thursday.
- Snow showers are possible around Kotzebue Sound and on the
Seward Peninsula starting Thursday morning. Snow accumulations
would be light with only 1" to 3" expected.
- Temperatures will quickly warm Thursday with lows in the teens
to 20s above 0 along the coast, and single digits below 0 in
the Western Interior. This warming trend will continue into the
weekend.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- A front brings clouds and areas of snow showers to the region
this afternoon and into Tuesday. Light snow will persist into
Wednesday. Only 1" to 2" of snow is expected with this front.
- Temperatures will cool Tuesday night as arctic air follows the
weak front. Low temperatures will go into the teens below 0.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Building high pressure in the Bering Sea is continuing to
translate into the Interior. An area of low pressure in the
Canadian Archipelago is connected to the triple point low in the
Gulf of Alaska via a stationary front. The high pressure from the
Bering is continuing to bring northerly winds into the Interior
keeping the 850 mb temps into the teens to 20s below 0. A series
of shortwaves will move overtop the ridge axis into the Interior
later tonight. This will bring a quick round of cloud cover to the
Eastern Interior, which could help to mitigate the cold
temperatures in the valleys tonight and tomorrow. By Wednesday
night an Arctic Front will have moved across the Interior bringing
another round of reinforcing arctic air. While the North Slope
could see light snow with this front, the Interior will be too dry
at the surface to see any accumulation precipitation. The west
coast will see another low pressure move into the Northwestern
Interior Thursday morning. This will bring a brief change to this
cold and dry pattern, and it`s impacts will discussed in the
"Extended Forecast Section".
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Wednesday night will begin to see a quick moving low pressure move
overtop the area of high pressure in the Southern Being. This low
will track east into the Arctic by Thursday, bringing snow,
warmer temperatures, and increasing winds across Northern Alaska.
Snow chances for the Eastern Interior will increase Thursday night
and will go into Friday night. Increasing west-northwest winds
across the Northslope Thursday through Saturday, could lead to
areas of blowing snow. Any snow accumulations with this system
will be light. The Y-K Delta coastline could see an area of mixed
precipitation as southerly flow aloft bring temperatures aloft
near freezing. There is a brief 12 hour window on Thursday that
either sleet or freezing drizzle is possible. These chances are
low but non zero.
Looking towards Sunday we will see a return of frigid arctic air.
Another round of 30s to 40s below 0 is possible in the Interior
starting Sunday night and going through most of next week.
Depending how quickly the cloud cover clears Sunday, would dictate
how quickly we can cool down. This pattern looks to remain dry
with the exceptions of snow showers along the West Coast and North
Slope coastlines.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Gusty southwesterly winds through the Bering Strait Thursday could
bring higher waters into Kotzebue Sound. This would potentially
lead to water on top of the sea ice from Point Hope to Kotzebue
Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&
$$
502
FXAK67 PAJK 082011
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1111 AM AKST Mon Dec 8 2025
UPDATE...update for the 18z TAF product. Minor changes if any
changes planned for the forecast MVFR and IFR for the southern
panhandle with VFR but LLWS and Turbulence for the northern
portion in the outflow pattern set up. Rain snow line about
Wrangell Kake to near Sitka line.
UPDATE at 11 am ... Upgraded winter weather advisory for Wrangell
and Petersburg to warning level through Monday evening due to
overrunning condition with arctic boundary south of them.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 615 am Dec 8...
SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Moderate to heavy snow continues over the northern panhandle
and will continue to spread southward into central and southern
panhandle as temperatures decrease.
- Cold temperatures moving into SEAK to start the week, with many
areas seeing single digits or sub zero temperatures. Wind
chills along White Pass dipping below -25 Sunday night.
SHORT TERM...The panhandle remains caught between two weather
patterns, with rain and snow across the southern panhandle
continuing on Monday while cold, drier air in the north works its
way southward as the arctic boundary is propelled along by strong
northerly outflow.
Satellite and radar imagery show precipitation continuing to try
and work its way northward as systems race into the panhandle.
The continuing advance of katabatic cold air outflow is shifting
these systems further and further south, with precip eroding away
as it encounters drier air racing down the inner channels. Areas
from the Icy Strait Corridor northward have largely seen heavy
precipitation come to an end, and chances of lingering snow
showers will diminish through Monday as drier air advances further
southward, with only minor additional accumulations at most
expected. For these areas, the big story will be the frigid
weather ahead, as temperatures look set to plummet over the next
few days, with wind chills reaching as low as 15 below for Juneau
and Gustavus, 25 below for the Haines Borough, and 30 to 40 below
for Skagway and the Klondike Highway.
Further south, snow and rain remain the major story. Precipitation
currently moving north through the central panhandle will be
reinforced by the arrival of another system, which will move
directly across the southern panhandle. This system will
successfully stall the arctic front, and even briefly send snow
levels back up across parts of the far southern panhandle
(including Ketchikan) through the day on Monday, before they
plummet in the wake of the systems departure Monday night. While
this brief surge in snow levels will not reach the central
panhandle, the moisture associated with the system will, and
consequently locations like Petersburg, Wrangell, and parts of
POW Island (the highways and more northern parts), will see some
moderate snow accumulations; with winter weather advisories in
effect. Ketchikan itself may see some minor snow accumulations
early Monday morning in more isolated areas (before the system`s
warm front has a chance to fully arrive), and Monday night, after
the system`s center has passed overhead, and Revillagigedo Island
finds itself on the NW flank of the departing low. One final
system will bring chances of PoPs (including some snow) to the far
southern panhandle on Tuesday. Beyond then, dry and cold weather
becomes predominant through the remainder of the week. For
additional details, see the long term discussion.
LONG TERM...An arctic boundary continues to move southward over the
southern panhandle at the start of the mid range and will likely
move south of the panhandle by mid week. Building high pressure in
NW Canada and interior Alaska is creating offshore flow and ushering
colder continental air through the northern panhandle. This air is
very cold with 850 mb temps plummeting into the -15 to -25 C range
by mid week across the northern panhandle and near -10 C over the
south. At sea level this will translate to overnight lows ranging
from single digits above or below zero for the north to teens and
20s for the south.
Daytime highs will struggle to reach the 20s for the north and into
the 30s for the south as we progress through the week. Coldest
temperatures look to occur Monday night through Wednesday night, but
sub freezing temperatures are likely to stick around into next
weekend as well. The panhandle from Icy Strait northward will be
watched closely as many locations will be approaching their
criteria for cold weather advisories or extreme cold warnings
(especially the Haines and Klondike Highways) from early to mid
week. As of this forecast discussion, an extreme cold warning was
issued for the Klondike Highway from Monday night through Tuesday
morning for extremely cold temperatures with wind chills as low
as -40 degrees.
Strong outflow winds will be ushering in these frigid temperatures,
blowing along many northern panhandle channels, with gale force
winds lasting through most of the week. The strongest winds will
be located along Lynn Canal and Chatham Strait, with elevated
winds also coming out of Taku Inlet as well as blowing out into
the gulf from gaps along the NE gulf coast. A strong 1035 mb high
in the Yukon is the main driver of this outflow and it will persist
and strengthen to 1050 mb by late next week. Expect gusty winds
out of many of the outflow areas in the northern panhandle to
start with, but expect outflow out of areas farther south through
the week as the Yukon high expands into northern British Columbia
by late week. With these winds and the cold air that it is
bringing, a few secondary effects will be noticeable. First, wind
chills will be rather frigid reaching into the negative teens and
possibly colder in the north most of the week. Second, is that
freezing spray will become a more widespread problem for many
marine areas in the inner channels and along the NE gulf coast.
The freezing spray could become heavy at times in Lynn Canal, near
Taku Inlet, and northern parts of Glacier Bay throughout the
week.
Otherwise, most of the panhandle will be dry through the mid and
long range except for possibly the south. A series of lows track
into the BC coast and could send some of their precip into the
southern panhandle throughout the week. Given how cold the
atmosphere is expected to be the precip, when it does fall, will
mostly be in the form of snow. Highest accumulations would likely
be earlier Tuesday, with additional accumulations will likely be
low for the mid week period. There is the possibility of a another
snow event for the south next Friday into Saturday with a couple
inches of accumulation possible but storm track is uncertain at
this time for that system.
AVIATION.../Until 12Z Tuesday/...Areas north of the Icy Strait
Corridor will remain in the VFR category through the 24-hour TAF
period. Areas in the Icy Strait Corridor & the central Panhandle,
Including PAJN & PASI will improve from the MVFR to the VFR
category by mid-morning. Areas farther south, including PAPG,
PAWG, PAKT, & PAKW will stay within the MVFR/IFR flight category
range through the period. Breezy / gusty conditions are expected
through the period with the strongest winds being in the northern
panhandle, especially PAGY & PAHN. LLWS magnitudes of up to around
30 - 35 kt out of a generally northeasterly direction for the
northern panhandle & out of various directions for the southern
panhandle centered at between 1 & 2 kft aloft are possible through
the period.
MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters):
The outside waters forecast will largely be dominated by the
outflow winds from density differences between the panhandle and
north into Canada. Strong gales to storm force winds are expected
out of interior passes, Cross Sound, and Chatham Strait through
Monday, before some reduction in strength Tuesday through Thursday
as the pressure gradient orientation shifts. For more
information, see the short term discussion. For seas, expecting
to see upwards of 15 ft seas associated with winds blowing out of
interior passes for the next few days.
Inside (Inner Channels):
Strong northerly winds in Glacier Bay, Lynn Canal, and Taku Inlet,
with all these locations expected to exceed gale to strong gale
for multiple days, with the upper arms of Glacier Bay and northern
Lynn Canal expected to see heavy freezing spray for multiple
days. Looking to see the stronger northerlies to extend south on
Monday as the low/energy departs into British Columbia. Light to
moderate freezing spray is expected to stick around for the
central panhandle into mid week, with overall outflow conditions
persisting through at least the end of the week.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318.
Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon AKST Tuesday
for AKZ318.
Cold Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM AKST
Wednesday for AKZ319.
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon AKST Tuesday
for AKZ320-325.
Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ326-329-
331.
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for
AKZ328.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012-013.
Storm Warning for PKZ651.
Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>034-053-641>644-661>664-
671.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ035-036-652-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...GFS/N
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