518
FXAK68 PAFC 151255
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 AM AKDT Tue Jul 15 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3/Today through Thursday evening)...
A shortwave trough over the Copper River Basin this morning will
continue to track east, exiting the region later this morning.
Upstream, a more complex pattern is taking hold with multiple
upper-level lows upstream with a weaker ridge nestled between
them, over the southern Bering.
With the exiting trough, the majority of the showers and cloud
cover present over Southcentral yesterday through the overnight
hours will be on the decrease. Southerly flow over the Susitna
Valley this out ahead of a trough/surface front extending south
from a low near Utqiagvik may keep a few lingering showers across
the Talkeetnas toward Broad Pass this morning before this feature
moves east and a shift to a more southeasterly flow takes hold.
South of the upper-level ridge, a deep cut-off low over the
north-central Pacific (south of the eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula) is slowly advancing northeast. A jet streak along the
eastern side of the low is helping force it northward. As it
continues northward through Tuesday, the ridge over the northeast
Pacific ahead of this low will connect with the ridge over the
eastern Bering out ahead of a western Bering low and move across
southern Alaska. As a result, expect decreasing clouds and
warmer/drier conditions for Southcentral through the day Tuesday.
The track of the north-Pacific low becomes a little more
questionable on Wednesday as the ridge settles over Interior
Alaska and blocks the low from progressing northward. Guidance,
however, is beginning to key in on a track that takes the
deepening surface low into Bristol Bay by Wednesday morning then
steering it toward the Kuskokwim Delta by Wednesday evening.
Given this track, the surface front associated with the low will
move across Kodiak Island Tuesday night and push northward across
the Kenai Peninsula Wednesday, bringing rain and some wind.
Guidance continues to diverge on the progression and strength of
the front as it tries to push inland. This model spread increases
with regard to the track of trailing upper level short-waves
Wednesday night through Thursday. Based on this, expect mostly
cloudy skies with rain along the coast and across the western
Susitna Valley and chance of rain for locations along the lee of
the coastal mountains.
As for winds, small craft advisory level winds will develop over
the western Gulf, with a small area of Gales around the Barren
Islands, ahead of the surface low and front Tuesday night through
Wednesday. The building surface ridge ahead of it will lead to
southeasterly gap winds into Southcentral Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Uncertainty in the strength and progression of
the front lead to low confidence in the strength of gap winds.
-SEB/TM
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...
Everything is on track with the Southwest Alaska forecast on
Tuesday. A trough is currently pushing through the Seward
Peninsula this morning with light rain clipping northern portions
of the Kuskokwim Delta. The rest of Southwest is largely dry,
though widespread cloud cover persists from the overnight hours.
Expect another cool day with minimal rain chances early on.
Tonight into Wednesday, a North Pacific low and its front are
forecast to lift northward into Southwest with what should be an
expanding area of rain and scattered showers from Wednesday
morning into Wednesday night. Thursday should see rain chances
linger across Southwest as a near stationary low over the Bering
sends a wave of low pressure through the region. Precipitation
will be more scattered or even isolated in nature on Thursday, but
coverage should once again encompass all or most of the region.
Farther west, the stationary low over the Bering is forecast to
move little through the weekend. This will keep low stratus and
fog in the forecast for the next several days over the Bering with
a broad region of small craft conditions and gale force gusts
spanning from the Central Aleutians into Saint Matthew Island.
Southwesterly flow around the base of the low will allow for
additional troughs and waves of low pressure to cross the
Aleutians with periods of rain and windy conditions likely through
the end of the week. In the immediate future, a front is quickly
approaching the Central Aleutians and is bringing gusty
southwesterly winds and increasing rain chances through much of
the day today. Behind the front, visibility should improve as rain
clears out, but low stratus will remain in its wake, helping to
keep the sun from making an appearance. The front will eventually
stall over the Pribilof Islands and Eastern Aleutians tomorrow,
quickly dissipating as yet another trough emerges from the North
Pacific. This trough will track from the Eastern Aleutians into
the Alaska Peninsula from Thursday into Friday.
-BL
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...
The big picture has a broad upper level low in the Bering Sea and
a building ridge of high pressure extending from the North
Pacific and across South Central Alaska through the forecast
period. For South Central, the building, blocking ridge of high
pressure will promote drier conditions across much of the region.
In the West, the upper level low pressure system generally
remains over the central Bering Sea during the longterm. The main
uncertainty with the Bering low is in regards to how it interacts
with surrounding shortwaves/lows and the speed of its surface
front. The GFS/Canadian solutions would push the surface features
quickly across SW AK whereas the European model now tends to have
the features move slower across the region. Nonetheless, expect an
active pattern out west for the forecast period.
-DD
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will generally prevail for ANC, but cloud
ceilings this morning will likely hover around or just below 5,000
ft. Any remaining shower activity should wrap up quickly this
morning, although guidance suggests that ceilings between 12-18z
could dip down to high end MVFR. Up-inlet flow returns this
afternoon as clouds scatter out, which will bring southwesterly
winds that could gust up to 15 kts before diminishing overnight.
&&
$$
140
FXAK69 PAFG 152359
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
359 PM AKDT Tue Jul 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Southwest flow aloft is bringing significant rainfall
to the West Coast and Western Interior this afternoon. A ridge
building from the south will cause rain to slowly taper off
through tonight. Most areas west of Tanana will see 0.5-1.5"
of total rainfall through Wednesday with the heaviest amounts
near Nome. The Yukon Flats will continue to be breezy this
afternoon with gusts to 25 mph. Temperatures rebound to near
normal on Wednesday south of the Brooks Range and remain above
normal across the North Slope.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- West southwest winds will gust to 25 mph across the Yukon Flats
this afternoon.
- Temperatures mainly in the 50s and 60s on Tuesday before warming
back into the 70s through the weekend.
- Thunderstorm activity looks to be near zero until Friday, when
isolated thunderstorms are likely across the Central and Eastern
Interior.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Rainfall forecast is on track with most areas seeing between
0.3" and 1.0" so far as of 3 PM Tuesday
- Most areas west of Tanana will see 0.5-1.5" of total rainfall
through Wednesday with the heaviest amounts near Nome.
- Increasing south winds across St. Lawrence Island and the West
Coast through Tuesday night before subsiding on Wednesday. Gusts
up to 40 mph are possible through the Bering Strait and across
the Norton Sound on Tuesday through this evening.
- Onshore winds 20 to 25 mph south of the Bering Strait have
prompted High Surf Advisories for elevated water levels of 3 to
4 feet above the normal high tide line. Minor beach erosion is
expected through Wednesday morning.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- South-southwesterly offshore winds and above normal temperatures
in the 60s or even low 70s continue through midweek.
- Onshore flow and low stratus/fog return Thursday.
- Smoky conditions across the central and eastern Brooks Range
have improved and visibility is expected to remain good through
the week.
- East winds 20 to 25 mph along the Arctic Coast on Friday.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Southwest flow north of a
ridge of high pressure is bringing rainfall to the west coast and
the western Interior. The ridge of high pressure will quickly
build north over the state and dry conditions out across the area
no later than Wednesday afternoon. The ridge is transient though
and skies look to only partially clear before a low aloft moves
into southwest Alaska, bringing southeast flow and some showers on
Thursday. Flow becomes southerly on Friday with a shortwave moving
through the flow during the afternoon, which will likely spark a
return of afternoon thunderstorms over the central and eastern
Interior. Weak ridging persists, with temperatures near to
slightly above normal across Interior Alaska.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Generally low fire weather concerns across most of the state with
the warmest/driest conditions across the upper Yukon Flats and
eastern Tanana Valley. With that said, expecting cloudy and cooler
conditions through Wednesday, with RH remaining above 30 percent.
Thursday a ridge will be prominent across the state, bringing
warm and dry weather back to the interior by the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...No concerns at this time.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...By Saturday, southwest flow begins
to develop across northern Alaska with rainfall looking very
likely for the West Coast and Western Interior. A persistent ridge
over the North Pacific will likely nudge into the central and
eastern Interior, so it will likely take a couple of fronts moving
to the west coast to break down the ridge before precipitation
gets into the central and Eastern Interior. Persistent ridging
over the North Slope will keep temperatures well above normal up
there.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...High Surf Advisory in
effect for the Bering Strait south to Chevak including Norton
Sound through Wednesday morning. Minor coastal erosion expected
with water levels of 3 to 4 feet above the normal high tide line.
Highest water levels Tuesday afternoon and overnight into early
Wednesday morning.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Surf Advisory for AKZ821.
High Surf Advisory for AKZ822-824-825.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-853.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802>805-852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
&&
$$
Chriest/Park(Fire)
269
FXAK67 PAJK 152348
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
348 PM AKDT Tue Jul 15 2025
.SHORT TERM...
Key Points:
- A ridge over the gulf is will allow for dry conditions to
continue with partly cloudy skies.
- Weak trough could bring light precipitation to Northern gulf
coast Wednesday night into Thursday
- High temperatures in the mid to high 60s expected to continue,
with 70s in the southern panhandle.
- Winds remain light in many areas with the exception of afternoon
sea breezes and northerly moderate to fresh breezes (15 to 20
kt) in Clarence Strait.
Details: Minor changes were made to the forecast for Tuesday due
to an upper level trough that moved through the northern
panhandle, bringing some drizzle and cloud cover. This in turn put
a damper on any significant sea breeze development and also
limited maximum temperatures Tuesday afternoon for the Icy Strait
corridor. Out in the gulf, a developing ridge continues to bring
northwesterly winds and gradually drier conditions across the
panhandle Tuesday into Wednesday. With skies clearing out once
more Wednesday as the ridge tightens and the ridge axis sets up in
the central gulf, multiple areas will see temperatures into the
low 70s once more Wednesday. In the interior, a heat advisory has
been issued for Hyder for temperatures Wednesday afternoon
expected to reach or exceed 80 degrees. Increasing day time
temperatures will allow for sea breezes to form increasing winds
for some land areas. Skagway will experience the largest affect
from sea breezes with winds increasing to 10 to 15 kts in the
afternoon.
As of 345 PM local time, thermal troughing over the interior has
lead to a sea breeze in Taiya Inlet with southerly winds 15 to 20
kts observed at Skagway. This breeze is expected to weaken
overnight becoming light and variable before picking up once more
Wednesday with daytime heating and diminished cloud cover.
.LONG TERM... / Thursday to Sunday night / Overall high pressure over
eastern Pacific to the Gulf of Alaska continues through the weekend,
with ridge flattened Friday to Sunday. Ridge begins to rebuild on
Sunday but not enough impact southeast until the Day 7 and 8
periods. Light rain for the northeast gulf Coast with accumulations
less than a tenth of an inch and then that falling off to trace or
less.
Continued onshore/along shore for the Northeast Gulf Coast and
panhandle through the weekend so clouds may stack near the coastal
zone there. Will need to watch if marine layer stays anchored along
the coast.
&&
.AVIATION...As of Tuesday afternoon, VFR conditions reign supreme
with SCT or BKN cloud decks of 4000 ft or more across the northern
panhandle, while the southern panhandle is effectively clear.
These conditions will last the rest of the day across the
panhandle. The marine layer clouds should return for the outer
coast Tuesday night again possibly reaching Gustavus again in Icy
Strait. As for fog, lower possibility of it tonight as another day
of warmer weather drys out the lower atmosphere, but best chance
is still around Petersburg and Wrangell again though any that does
form should not stick around as long as it did Tuesday. Winds to
remain low for most areas though sea breeze circulations may
produce winds up to 20 kt in some areas particularly Skagway once
more.
&&
.MARINE...Outside: As the ridge continues to tighten and the
ridge axis moves into the central gulf, northwesterly winds along
the central to southern coast will continue to increase to NW
moderate to strong breezes of 20 to 25 kts Tuesday evening. Along
with strong breezes, times of near gale to gale force wind gusts
have a chance of occurring Tuesday evening and night near the
southern coast from Cape Decision down to Dixon Entrance. Wave
heights build to 6 to 8 ft, with the largest seas west of Prince
of Wales Island and near Dixon Entrance. These increased winds and
waves are expected into Wednesday evening before the ridge begins
to slightly weaken.
Inside: Mainly light to gentle breezes of 5 to 10 kts persist across
the inner channels. An upper level trough brought cloud cover and
even some drizzle to the northern panhandle which put a damper on
any significant sea breeze development this afternoon. The lone
exception is in the north at Skagway, due to thermal troughing
over the interior, which is seeing southerly winds of 15 to 20 kt
in the area of Taiya Inlet. These and other sea breezes in areas
that dodged cloud cover today will show up once more on Wednesday
with similar strength. Along Clarence Strait, Northwest winds will
increase to 15 to 20 kts through the period with the tightening
ridge. These winds across Clarence Strait will remain elevated
through Wednesday, beginning to diminish Wednesday evening.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ331.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-644-661-662.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....Bezenek
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...STJ
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau
