516
FXAK68 PAFC 280142
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
442 PM AKST Mon Jan 27 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3/Tonight through Thursday)...
Cold air wrapping around a low pressure system to the west has
resulted in an unstable airmass across Southcentral, bringing
widespread showers to the region. Locally heavy bands of intense
snow have been observed today moving inland off Cook Inlet from
the southern Kenai Peninsula all the way up to the Susitna Valley.
Being convective in nature, the exact timing, location, and
magnitude of the snow showers have been a forecast challenge, but
reports everywhere from 0" to 9" of daily snow totals have been
observed today, varying greatly across short distances.
Southwesterly flow will likely allow snow showers to persist along
upslope areas of the Chugach, Kenai, and Talkeetna Mountains
through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers are also likely for
lower elevations.
A reinforcing shot of colder air will also begin to work in on
Tuesday as a more potent shortwave moves east from the Alaska
Peninsula. By Tuesday night, this feature will likely help
initiate northerly and westerly gap winds for places like Seward
and Whittier as temperatures elsewhere fall to more seasonal for
this time of year. Thompson Pass will also see an increase in
gusty gap winds due to cold air advection from the Copper River
Basin as the flow switches to northerly. Blowing snow or blizzard
conditions are possible as there should be plenty of transportable
snow from the previous storm. By Wednesday, the entire upper-
level low may drop over Southcentral, bringing yet more cold air
across the region and stronger northerly gap winds to the mountain
passes and Southcentral coast. This trend of dropping
temperatures and increased gap winds will continue into Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...
Conditions are winding down across much of Southwest Alaska and
the Bering/Aleutians through tonight. Pockets of light snow may
linger across portions of the lower Kuskokwim Valley and northern
portions of Bristol Bay through this evening. As a whole,
anticipate drier and colder over the next few days for Southwest
Alaska. A much colder airmass moves out of the north and spreads
across the Southwest Mainland. Temperatures are expected to drop
into the minus teens tonight and minus 20F`s with wind chills in
the -30F`s Tuesday night/Wednesday night for the Kuskokwim Delta
and lower Kuskokwim Valley. Bristol Bay will be "warmer" with low
temperatures reaching the minus teens Tuesday night/Wednesday
night. The Alaska Peninsula will be the "warmest" with
temperatures from -4F to 18F between Pilot Point and False Pass
respectively. Daytime temperatures will be subzero for all areas
except from Pilot Point south on Wednesday.
The next weather driver will be an incoming front set to
move over the Western Aleutians tomorrow. A band of gale force
winds surrounded by widespread small craft will move west to east
across the Bering Sea through the end of the week. Precipitation
will move along the front, starting as snow initially and
transitioning to rain as warm air encroaches in. The
Western/Central Aleutians will likely see very little, if any,
snowfall due to already having temperatures at or above freezing
prior to precipitation. The front reaches the Pribilof Islands by
Wednesday morning, bringing rounds of snowfall and gale force
winds. There is potential for blowing snow conditions, though some
uncertainty remains with how quickly the warm air can overtake the
snow. Similar conditions are expected along the Kuskokwim Delta
Coast by Thursday.
-KM
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday - Monday)...
Seasonably cool temperatures continue over much of the
southeastern half of the State as the longwave trough over the
Bering Sea retreats back towards the Arctic and the building high
pressure ridge shifts towards the East. Several shortwave troughs
with associated surface lows will move through the Gulf of Alaska
through the end of the week producing moderate coastal rain and
mountain snow to Prince William Sound and into the Copper River
Basin. Cooler air across the Interior to the Kenai Peninsula,
Kodiak Island, Anchorage and Mat- Su Valleys will start to warm as
more southerly winds return to the area early next week.
Precipitation during this time is favor a rain/snow mix later
transitioning to more rain at the lower elevations at the start of
the new week.
A building pressure gradient will produce strong southerly winds
across the Central Aleutians through the Western Alaskan Peninsula
and Southern Bering Sea through the end of the forecast period.
-DD
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF
period. Gusty southerly up-inlet flow will gradually diminish in
speed through Tuesday before become northwesterly tomorrow
afternoon or evening.
&&
$$
883
FXAK69 PAFG 280025
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
325 PM AKST Mon Jan 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Heavy precipitation is coming to an end across
northern Alaska, though parts of the northern Interior from
Bettles to Coldfoot continue to get heavy snow this afternoon.
Near blizzard conditions continue through tonight along the west
coast north of the Bering Strait. A cold front is moving through
the Interior with gusty southwest winds, snow showers, and much
colder temperatures behind it. Most of the Interior will drop into
the 30s and 40s below zero by Thursday morning. The North Slope
will see light snow taper off Tuesday morning and a return of
colder temperatures. Winter Storm Watches are in effect for
blizzard conditions through Alaska Range Passes and near Kaktovik
Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Weather Messages:
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Precipitation continues over the Northern Interior with other
areas drying out. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for the
Dalton Highway Summits, Bettles, and Coldfoot for up to 4 more
inches of snow through this evening.
- A strong cold front is moving through the Interior. Gusts to 40
mph are possible from Nenana to Lake Minchumina and gusts to 35
mph are possible in the Fairbanks area. Wind Advisories are in
effect through this afternoon. Temperatures will begin to
plummet behind this cold front passage.
- Winds through Alaska Range passes will flip to be from the north
as high pressure builds behind the cold front. Expect breezy
conditions and blowing and drifting snow Wednesday and Thursday.
Blizzard conditions are even possible and a Winter Storm Watch
has been issued.
- Very cold temperatures (possibly the coldest of the winter so
far) remain possible late week and into next weekend. Lows may
dip into the 40s below zero across portions of the area,
depending on cloud cover. Where there are clouds could be in the
20s below.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Upper Kuskokwim
Valley for wind gusts up to 50 mph with the passage of a cold
front through this afternoon. Very hazardous conditions are
expected there due to a combination of ice covered vegetation
and strong winds.
- Improving conditions are expected south of the Bering Strait
with Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories being
cancelled this afternoon.
- Strong northerly winds along with falling snow are expected to
continue to create blizzard and near blizzard conditions from
Point Hope through the Bering Strait through Monday night.
- Skies clear and temperatures plummet through Thursday, with
temperatures reaching the 20s below along the coast by Thursday
morning and into the 30s and 40s below in the Interior.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Light snow across the Arctic Coast diminishes Tuesday morning.
Total snowfall amounts range from 1-4 inches, highest near the
Brooks Range.
- Near blizzard conditions are likely near Point Hope through
Monday night.
- A Winter Storm Watch for blizzard conditions has been issued for
Kaktovik for Thursday as winds increase out of the west with
plenty of fresh snow available to blow around and reduce
visibility.
- Temperatures fall to below normal on Wednesday and remain below
normal through Friday with 20s and 30s below zero expected
across the area.
Forecast Analysis and Confidence...A sharp cold front is currently
moving through the Interior. High pressure builds behind the cold
front with cold temperatures inbound across northern Alaska. There
will be some wind through this evening as the cold front moves
east, mainly from Fairbanks east and over Eagle Summit. The high
pressure will flip southerly winds to northerly through Alaska
Range passes on Wednesday morning, and winds will increase and may
cause blizzard conditions with multiple feet of fresh snow in the
area. Cold 850 mb temperatures will continue to follow the cold
front, with 850 mb temperatures dropping to near -30 C over the
whole forecast area by Tuesday night. Clouds will begin to clear
from west to east as a strong ridge aloft builds over the west
coast, bringing cold NW flow across the area. The coldest mornings
will be Thursday through Saturday, with most of the area reaching
the -30s and typical cold spots in the -40s.
For the forecast today, we were able to cancel a number of winter
storm warnings and winter weather advisories on the west coast and
western interior. We also issued Winter Storm Watches for blizzard
conditions for Alaska Range passes and the eastern Arctic coast.
Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...Cold temperatures are
expected for the end of the week across most of the area as a
building ridge to the west helps to clear clouds out of the area
with a very cold airmass still in place. At this time, the coldest
morning across the eastern interior looks to be Friday morning.
Another deep feed of tropical moisture looks to ride over the top
of a building ridge and take aim at the West Coast and Western
Interior for Friday through the weekend with temperatures rapidly
rising back above normal. There is uncertainty as to how far
inland this feed of moisture will reach. Regardless, expect very
strong inversions in the Interior from Saturday night through
Tuesday with rapidly warming temperatures aloft but valleys
remaining cold. Moisture may reach the Interior toward the middle
of next week.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801-815-820.
High Wind Warning for AKZ836-837-847-849-852.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ848-850.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ812-831-832-834.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ821.
Wind Advisory for AKZ839>841-843>845.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ805.
Wind Advisory for AKZ846.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-803-850-852.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
Gale Warning for PKZ805-853-857.
Gale Warning for PKZ806.
Gale Warning for PKZ807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
Gale Warning for PKZ810-811-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817-851.
Gale Warning for PKZ856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
&&
$$
CHRIEST
391
FXAK67 PAJK 272354
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
254 PM AKST Mon Jan 27 2025
.SHORT TERM...Weakening front tracking over the AK Panhandle
produced a wintry mix across the Central and Northern Panhandle. A
slushy 1 to 2 inches of accumulation reported. Temps were back to
the upper 30s to low 40s, with the exception of some points such as
Petersburg and Hyder that held on to the colder airmass. As the
front moves out showers will become more scattered. Was enough
convective energy for cells over the NE Gulf resulting in some
isolated lightning strikes. Any thunderstorm activity will end by
the late evening. The next low moves into the SE Gulf from the SW
Monday evening into Tuesday. This system brings on moderate to heavy
rainfall for the southern zones while central and northern locations
shift to northerly flow bringing in colder air mass with any precip
falling as a rain snow mix or all snow. But with the low to the
south, most precip will be for points Frederick Sound south. Snow
accumulations of 1 to 4 inches over sea level locations with the
exception of Hyder where totals upwards of 13 inches over 24 hours
are likely. Overland winds drop off into the evening with the
current front moving put. The stronger winds registered for the far
northern panhandle with gusts of 40 mph. It will be the south`s turn
for breezy conditions as the Se Gulf low moves in.
.LONG TERM...Several incoming systems through mid to late week,
followed by clear skies and very cold temperatures.
Wednesday will see a brief lull in precipitation with the Tuesday
system moving into Canada. A broad ridge looks to set up over the
entirety of Alaska, bringing in colder temperatures aloft.
Northwesterly flow near Prince William Sound looks to interact
with with the remaining warm temperatures near the surface to spin
up a weak surface low around the Yakutat area. With 850 mb
temperatures dropping to below -10 C, with southerly moisture
transport of around 15-20 knots, it will be sufficient for banded
snow set up around the Icy Strait Corridor area. With the cold air
advection aloft, there looks to be ideal snow growth in the
dendritic growth zone, it is just a question of how much available
moisture is present. Current 25th-75th percentiles for QPF around
the Icy Strait Corridor hovers around 0.04-0.13 inches per 3 hours,
with high snow ratios of around 15:1 would translate into around
5-8 inches of snow over 12 hours. Given the potential, a winter
storm watch was issued for Pelican to Juneau.
Beyond, stronger cold air advection will push the weak low south,
sapping any remaining moisture with very dry air. 850 mb
temperatures near White Pass look to drop below -25 C with a high
pressure in the Yukon exceeding 1050 mb. Gales to severe gales are
expected for Lynn Canal, parts of Glacier Bay, Taku Inlet, and
possibly parts of Yakutat Bay in the upper arms. Temperatures
look to descend to below zero for the northern half of the
panhandle during the overnight hours of Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...Some isolated thunderstorms are creating VFR along the
northern coast, diminishing to MVFR at times. For the Panhandle,
MVFR to IFR, with worse conditions down south. While we could see
a brief improvement in the early evening, expect conditions to
deteriorate later tonight with CIGS AoB 1500ft and widespread
rain/snow driving VSBY of 1 to 3 miles, persisting through
Tuesday. The central and southern Panhandle will see the lowest
categories.
For areas south of Frederick Sound, expect 25 to 35 knot southwest winds
at ridgetop to bring some LLWS but not seeing strong enough shear
to put this threat into TAFs.
&&
.MARINE...Isolated thunderstorms for NE Gulf and Yakutat bay into
the evening with gusts winds due to convective cells from the SW.
The diminishing trend for coastal waters and inner channel winds
through the evening as the current front crosses over the region and
pressure gradients weaken. As the next low moves into the SE Gulf by
early Tuesday winds increase again to the 25 kt range. With the low
over the south, pressure gradient shifts and previous southerly flow
switches to northerly by Tuesday evening.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ318.
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
afternoon for AKZ320>322-325.
Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 AM AKST Wednesday
for AKZ331.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PRB
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...PRB
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