136
FXAK68 PAFC 141449
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
549 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Satellite imagery shows a front encroaching upon Kodiak Island.
Winds are expected to increase to small craft to gale force winds
to surrounding marine areas such as Shelikof Straight, southern
Cook Inlet, and much of the southwestern Gulf of Alaska.
Precipitation will mostly fall as rain at sea level, but may see
some snow on the initial onset tonight. The front will bring some
snow and elevated winds to the eastern Kenai Peninsula today, but
its parent low diving into the southern Gulf will help keep
impacts mostly coastal before dissipating by Saturday morning.
Clearing skies over the Cook Inlet and Susitna Valley regions
will likely return for Saturday as a weak transient ridge moves
over the region in between systems. This may bring one more night
of cooler temperatures before a gradual warming trend into early
next week.
A strong low pressure from the Pacific will cross the Aleutian
Chain sometime Sunday morning. Model guidance is handling this
system extremely poorly, giving little confidence on exact timing
of impacts. We do expect the front associated with it to bring
rain and elevated winds to Kodiak Island on Sunday before
progressing across the North Gulf coast by Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...
Currently, cold temperatures and relatively dry conditions are
present over much of the Southwest mainland as weak ridging
remains in place. Meanwhile, two lows are present with the first
west of the Pribilof Islands and the second just south of the
Alaska Peninsula. The lows are bringing a large swath of gale
force winds to the Central and Eastern Aleutians. Precipitation is
also falling over the Aleutians and Pribilof Islands. By Friday
afternoon, a band of precipitation will make it over much of
Bristol Bay. However, the Kuskokwim Delta and the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley will remain mostly dry. By Friday night into Saturday
morning, the lows will merge and move into the Gulf of Alaska.
Behind the lows is a strong ridge, which will decrease wind speeds
and precipitation chances in the Eastern Aleutians and the
Southwest mainland.
Behind this ridge is a strong low near Attu Island. The low`s
front brings a line of precipitation and small craft to gale force
winds to the Western Aleutians. This front will eventually make
it to the Central Aleutians by Saturday afternoon. More trouble
arises as a strong, compact North Pacific low swings up into the
Bering early Sunday. This low will join up with the aforementioned
front and will bring an area of storm force winds and moderate to
heavy precipitation to the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula
by late Sunday morning. This low will then track northward due to
a blocking ridge over the Gulf of Alaska. Due to the warm air
advection associated with this low, snowfall will eventually
transition to a bout of freezing rain mixed with snow over the
Kuskokwim Delta coast and the Bristol Bay coast early Sunday as
the front moves onshore. With recent snowfall, freezing rain that
falls may create difficult travel conditions. Another potential
concern with this low is the potential for coastal flooding.
However, due to a lower tide cycle and limited fetch, storm surge
is expected to be minimal, but some minor flooding is still
possible. Due to these potential threats, a Special Weather
Statement has been issued detailing the impacts. There is still
some uncertainty with the track and strength of this low, so
depending on what scenario plays out, more or less impacts will be
seen.
-JAR
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...
Southcentral will be under an upper level ridge before a strong
North Pacific system moves in from the southwest and displaces the
ridge into Canada. A broad upper level low becomes established
over the central Bering. Surface lows are embedded along the
front and rotating around the pivotal feature in the Bering,
merge by Monday afternoon. Gales to storm-force winds and heavy
precipitation are expected across the southern Bering Sea,
including the Aleutian Island Chain and Pribilofs before before
weakening Monday afternoon. This will be quickly followed by the
front of a second North Pacific system, which moves into the
southern Bering by Tuesday morning. The parent low moves from over
Kamchatka into the western Bering by Thursday morning. The exact
path of the system remains uncertain due to poor agreement
between the major global models. A 970 mb surface low embedded
along its front crosses the Alaska Peninsula Thursday morning,
bringing more gale to storm-force wind and heavy rain across the
Alaska Peninsula and the Southwest part of the state.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Patchy fog currently prevails around Anchorage with some
occasional visibility reductions and low/IFR ceilings. This is
expected to clear up later this morning. VFR conditions and light
winds will then persist.
&&
$$
152
FXAK69 PAFG 141347
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
447 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry conditions continue for the majority of the state as
a transition into a new forecast pattern will set up by the end
of the weekend. A series of lows will continue to merge over the
Norton Sound. An Arctic high will continue to build over the
Chukchi which will help create an easterly gradient across the
North Slope. Stronger winds can be expected over the NW Arctic
coast with speeds potentially reaching 50 mph. Another low will be
moving across the North Slope from the NE which will provide
another round of snow showers across the Brooks Range. A series of
fronts will then begin to move over the YK-Delta, from the
Bering, as a broad low sets up over the southern Bering. This
pattern change will include warmer temperatures from the SW flow,
along with the next chance of snow showers for much of the
Interior.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Cold and dry conditions will continue across the Interior to
finish out the week, with localized areas of fog and flurries.
- Highs in the single digits above and below zero with lows in the
single and double digits below zero through the weekend.
- Temperatures trend warmer early next week as isolated to
scattered snow chances return. Southerly winds are expected to
ramp up through Alaska Range passes Sunday into Monday.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Cold and dry conditions will continue across Western Alaska
through Saturday morning, with localized areas of fog and
flurries.
- Highs in the single and digits and teens to teens and 20s along
the southern coast, with lows in the single digits above and
below zero inland to single digits and teens along the coast.
Coldest spots reaching the double digits below zero inland.
- Temperatures trend colder overall through the weekend, ahead of
southerly flow returning Sunday into Monday as a series of
storms in the Bering Sea shift north.
- The first system is expected to lift north Saturday into Sunday
with gusty winds and snow chances across the West Coast.
Strongest winds are expected across the Yukon Delta and St.
Lawrence Island with gusts up to 50 mph possible.
* A slight chance for a wintry mix is possible, late Saturday
night into early Sunday morning, for the SW portion of the YK-
Delta.
- Temperatures trend warmer early next week as isolated to
scattered snow chances return.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Cold and mostly dry conditions will continue across the Brooks
Range and North Slope through the weekend, with isolated snow
showers and areas of fog along the Arctic Coast.
- E/NE winds prevail along the Arctic Coast into early next week,
strongest further west from Utqiagvik to Point Hope,
particularly around the Lisburne Peninsula where gusts up to 50
mph are expected.
- Highs in the single digits above and below zero in the Brooks
Range to single digits and teens along the coast, with lows in
the single digits above and below zero to double digits below
zero across the Arctic Plains and Brooks Range.
- Temperatures trend warmer starting Monday into Tuesday as
isolated to scattered snow chances return across to much of the
North Slope and Brooks Range.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Low lying clouds, patchy fog, and scattered snow showers remain spread
out across the state as a couple of lows continue to merge over
the Norton Sound. As the morning progresses, high pressure over
the Arctic will continue to push south from the Chukchi. These two
features will allow for gusty east winds across the NW Arctic
Coast. The strongest winds will be concentrated around the
Lisburne Peninsula with gusts up to 50 mph possible. These high
winds are expected to continue through most of the weekend as
another low will move SW from the NE Arctic Coast beginning
Saturday afternoon. This low will bring another round of
scattered snow showers for the North Slope as it moves toward the
Seward Peninsula. A colder air mass will accompany this low which
will continue to reinforce the cooling trend for the North Slope
and Interior.
Looking farther south, a broad area of low pressure will move into
the south Bering Sea. This will allow for multiple rounds of
fronts and lows to move up from the Aleutians. The first front
will move over YK-Delta late Saturday into early Sunday. The front
will be accompanied by low moving across the eastern Aleutians,
getting wrapped up in the broad low pressure over the Bering. With
the latest models runs, this low is not expected to go farther
north than St. Matthew Island. This setup will create a strong
pressure gradient across the Norton Sound, St. Lawrence Island,
and YK-Delta coast by Saturday afternoon. the strongest winds are
expected around St. Lawrence Island and off the coast of the YK-
Delta, where wind speeds could gust up to 60 mph at times. The
first font that moves into the SW YK-Delta, late Saturday night,
will bring widespread snow showers and a slight chance for a
wintry mix. Snow showers will continue up the coast into early
next week as the YK-Delta will transition to a rain/snow mix with
warmer SW flow brought in by the front.
Looking over the Interior, expect similar conditions over the next
couple of days with a slight cooling trend with the colder Arctic
air moving down from the NE. The lows in the gulf will create a
moderate gradient across the Interior Sunday and Monday. The
positioning of the low will be favorable for sub-advisory gap
winds through the Alaska Range.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
A more active pattern is expected for the majority of the state as
the overall forecast pattern will be changing. The fronts from
the YK-Delta will continue to work their way across the Interior.
The SW flow will also bring a slight warming trend across the
state as well. Widespread snow showers will continue through the
end of the week as additional fronts will continue to feed
moisture across the state.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-850.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804>806-810>813-852-856>858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
Gale Warning for PKZ811-857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ855.
Gale Warning for PKZ856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&
$$
Twombly
516
FXAK67 PAJK 141434
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
534 AM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Continued rain, rain/snow mix, and snow showers are dotting the
panhandle this morning.
- These showers will diminish ahead of the next frontal passage
that will bring another round of rain and snow and wind later
today into tomorrow.
- Brief break possible Sunday as ridging builds over the Gulf of
Alaska.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../Friday and Friday night/...Showers are dotting the
landscape of SE AK this morning. Rain, rain/snow mix, and snow are
all being reported. The snow and rain/snow mix is mainly along and
north of the Icy Strait corridor. South of that area is rain.
Going forward, these showers will continue with the snow
retreating farther to the north. So as the day goes on, the Icy
Strait corridor area should see less and less now and more rain.
At the same time, these showers will diminish today so expect
drying weather today. But it won`t last long as the next front,
that will bring the next round of precip, approaches from the
south later today and will last into tomorrow. So whatever breaks
in the precip you get today, enjoy it as much as you can as more
rain and/or rain/snow mix is likely.
Moisture amounts won`t be much for this time of year and snow
accumulation will remain minimal.
.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/...Minimal changes have
been made to the long term, with minor tweaks focusing around
inner channel winds. A front associated with a surface level low
in the western gulf will sweep northeast Friday night, passing
over the panhandle Saturday and bringing around half an inch of
rain in 24 hours. The northern interior panhandle will see this
rain transition to more of a rain/snow mix overnight, with higher
elevated areas seeing fully snow into midday Saturday. 24 hour
snow accumulations for highest elevations are still sitting around
3 inches, with areas closer to sea level seeing around an inch or
less. After the front pushes through going into Saturday
afternoon, developing showers in the wake will keep light rain in
the forecast for the rest of Saturday, trickling out overnight.
Breaks in the clouds will start to appear Sunday morning, with a
majority of the panhandle potentially able to see sun peaking
through throughout Sunday.
The next system over the eastern Aleutians is expected to send a
front into the panhandle through midday Monday, bringing rain
through the rest of the day and Tuesday. Through the entirety of
this system, around an inch of rain is expected, with the outer
coast seeing between an inch and an inch and a half. With colder
temperatures persisting in the northern interior panhandle, many
areas of the northern panhandle will likely see a rain/snow mix
for this time, with the Klondike Highway potentially seeing up to
6 inches of snow with this system.
Winds won`t be much of an issue through the period, with 20 to 30
kts in the gulf decreasing to 5 to 10 kts between systems. Inner
channel winds look to increase to around 20 kts up Lynn Canal and
out of Icy Strait as the pressure gradient tightens early next
week. High temperatures are sitting at the high 30s for the
northern interior panhandle and increasing to the low 40s as you
move south. The southern panhandle will see highs slightly
increase as each front moves through, though will stay in the high
40s. Low temperatures won`t be too much lower than the highs,
though they look to drop to around freezing early next week.
&&
.AVIATION.../Until 12Z Saturday/...CIG & VIS conditions will
primarily stay around the MVFR flight category for the period as
a generally active weather pattern is in place. SFC winds will
remain on the lighter side for the northern panhandle. For the
southern panhandle, breezier conditions are expected as the SFC
pressure gradient is tighter down there. LLWS magnitudes of up to
around 30 kt centered aloft at around 2 kft out of a generally
southeasterly direction are anticipated, especially as a as time
progresses as a new frontal system approaches from the SW.
&&
.MARINE...Main marine concerns in the short term forecast are
centered around the next low pressure that will move through the
Gulf today and tomorrow. The low will move through the western
Gulf today into tonight. The associated front will swing south-
to-north later today into tonight, reaching the northern panhandle
Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon, the low will reach the
eastern Gulf and will continue to move southeast Saturday evening.
Outside waters: Most of today, the gulf waters will be on the
quieter side, with winds around 5 to 15 knots. As the previously
mentioned front moves north into the area tonight, southeasterly
winds will swing to the southwest and will be around 20 to to 30
knots. As the low center travels through Saturday, the winds on
the south side will be strongest at around 15 to 20 knots. Some
higher wind speeds up to 25 kts are possible.
Lighter westerly winds are likely Sunday, at around 5 to 15 knots.
Inner Channels: The inner channel forecast will be a challenge. As
the front travels through the area late tonight into tomorrow, we
would expect southerly winds to increase. But with the source low
so far away, winds may only pick up to around 15 to 20 knots.
Stronger winds, up to 20 to 30 kts, likely for Clarence Strait.
Winds up to 25 knots possible for Stephens Passage.
As far as today is concerned, southerly winds for channels south
of Icy Strait, eastern winds near Icy Strait, and northerly winds
likely for areas north of Icy Strait. Strongest winds will be in
Clarence Strait at upwards of 25 to 30 knots. Much lighter
elsewhere at around 10 to 15 kts.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-641>644-661>664-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...GJS
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