558
FXAK68 PAFC 281415
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
515 AM AKST Fri Nov 28 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday)...
For today, a negatively-tilted shortwave trough will lift up from
the western Gulf into Southcentral as the front at the surface
weakens and hangs up along the coast near Cordova and Prince William
Sound. The approaching shortwave could pull enough moisture
northwest to help develop a new band of precipitation across parts
of Anchorage and up into western portions of the Mat-Su, with steady
rain and snow expected to continue across the northern Prince
William Sound. By the afternoon, winds will relax across the Kenai
Peninsula as the air mass around the Cook Inlet region cools
slightly, so the profile should be favorable for mostly snow across
interior valleys with this next round. Snow amounts across the Mat-
Su Valleys and Anchorage will generally stay well under 1 inch. Snow
will shift into the Copper Basin this afternoon and evening, where
storm totals of up to a few inches will be possible through early
Saturday, especially close to Paxson.
By Saturday morning, a transient upper ridge will move in behind the
shortwave trough, ushering in a brief lull in the active pattern. If
skies clear out enough, areas of fog could develop across parts of
the Mat Valley down into Anchorage and the western Kenai Peninsula
sometime between Friday evening and Saturday morning. The break in
the pattern will not last long, with another strong low and front
expected to move north into the Gulf between Saturday and Sunday. A
secondary surge of warm, moist air will move up with this frontal
system, setting the stage for another round of coastal rain and
unseasonably high snow levels. There will also be some threat for
freezing rain to return to the western Kenai Peninsula up into
Anchorage and the Mat-Su regions.
However, this will depend on a still quite uncertain track for the
Gulf low. A more west track across the Gulf would likely be more
favorable for warmer temperatures and issues with light wintry mix,
while a more east track would drive less warm air inland, and keep
precipitation more confined to the eastern parts of the outlook
area. Stay tuned as we monitor the progress of this next stronger
system going into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...
Areas of fog and low stratus affecting Southwest Alaska from the
Kuskokwim Delta to the Western Capes and parts of Bristol Bay are
expected to clear through the morning, however areas of low
stratus may persist later into the afternoon. Sky conditions will
generally improve across Southwest before a broad, North Pacific
front lifts across the Aleutians this afternoon.
Easterly winds up to gale force are anticipated along with
widespread rain showers for the Aleutian Chain, with near storm
force gusts possible between Unalaska and Atka. The axis of small
craft winds and gales shifts northward into the rest of the
Bering on Saturday, encompassing the Pribilof Islands. For
mariners, seas of greater than 20 feet are forecast on the
Pacific side of the Aleutians, with a smaller area of 20 foot seas
to lifting into the central and western Bering by late Saturday.
As the front approaches the Southwest mainland on Sunday, above
freezing mid- level temperatures and rain move in over freezing
surface temperatures of the Y-K Delta. While some model
divergence still exists concerning precipitation type, the ECMWF
and NAM both indicate increasing chances for periods of mixed
snow and freezing rain Sunday afternoon into Monday for The
Kuskokwim Delta.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Monday through
Thursday)...
The long term forecast is characterized by uncertainty,
especially closer to the end of next week. Monday starts with a
large North Pacific low south of the Aleutian Islands. This low
will bring a long swath of light to moderate precipitation to the
Aleutians and Bristol Bay. Southcentral Alaska will have lingering
precipitation as a low dissipates in the northern Gulf of Alaska.
By Tuesday, the North Pacific low will track into the Bering,
leading to heavier precipitation and high end gale force to storm
force winds over the Central Aleutians and the Pribilof Islands.
Depending on the guidance being looked at, northwest gale force
winds could affect Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta coast. A
front pushes into the Gulf of Alaska, bringing a quick round of
gusty winds and precipitation to Kodiak Island and the
Southcentral coast. However, the true intensity of rainfall and
winds cannot be accurately determined right now. Due to a more
southerly wind direction in the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and
the Gulf of Alaska, precipitation will likely be in the form of
rain. If precipitation makes it to the Kuskokwim Delta, snowfall
would be likely.
Wednesday has the low moving eastward, allowing for continued
gusty winds and precipitation in the east Bering. As the low moves
eastward, northerly winds will eventually reach the Southwest
mainland, allowing for cold air advection and thus, cooler
temperatures. The current thinking is that Thursday will be when
this occurs. Some guidance has temperatures dropping below zero
for the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Coast, but most keeps
it above zero. Meanwhile, the low may push into the Gulf of Alaska
by Thursday, bringing precipitation and increased wind speeds
there with high uncertainty on exactly where.
-JAR
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions with ceilings above 5000 ft and light
northerly winds will persist through the TAF period. However,
there is a chance for light snow between around 18Z through 0Z
today, which has the potential to drop ceilings below 5000 ft or
even to MVFR at times. Fog may also develop tonight as winds at
and near the surface slacken while low-level moisture lingers
underneath a transient ridge moving over the region. This
introduces potential for IFR visibility through Saturday morning.
Later on Saturday, any fog would be scoured out by increasing
northerly winds. Then, precipitation chances increase with the
arrival of another frontal system.
Quesada
&&
$$
784
FXAK69 PAFG 281408
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
508 AM AKST Fri Nov 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A quiet day across much of Northern Alaska as high pressure
continues to influence the area. This will begin to change
Saturday night as a low pressure in the Southern Bering Sea will
bring warmer temperatures and tropical moisture. This tropical
moisture will bring chances early next week for snow, wintry mix,
rain, and freezing rain to the Interior.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Temperatures warm through Sunday with highs in the single digits
to teens increasing to the teens to mid 20s. The Yukon Flats
north to the Brooks Range remains colder with highs rising into
the upper single digits.
- Gusty easterly winds through Delta Junction with gusts up to 60
mph through this morning.
- Cloud cover increases from the southwest through the weekend. Tnight
we could see areas of flurries with a slight chance for light
accumulating snow along elevated terrain in the Eastern
Interior.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Temperatures continue to remain above normal with highs
temperatures in the upper teens to upper 20s. These are expected
to persist into early next week.
- Winds will begin to weaken later this afternoon across the
Northwest Interior. North to northeast winds will begin to build
back up across much of the West Coast Saturday night. We will
see wind gusts up to 45 mph with these winds.
- Light snow is continuing across the Norton Sound coastline.
These communities are expected to only see an additional inch of
snow this morning. This afternoon the band of light snow will
move north towards the Kobuk Valley. Snow accumulations up to 2"
are expected in this region.
- Chances of rain, freezing rain, and wintry mix from the Yukon
Delta east to the Upper Kuskokwim increase Sunday. Confidence is
low for potential ice accumulations. Chances remain through
early next week. A winter storm watch has been issued.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Temperatures in the single digits above and below 0 today. Temperatures
rise around 10 degrees Saturday and remain warmer through at
least Monday.
- Mostly clear conditions today. Isolated pockets of low stratus
and fog still linger. Areas with lingering fog could see ice
accrete onto surfaces. The ice accretion would lead to slick
surfaces.
- Easterly winds begin to weaken today across the Arctic
Coastline. West of Point Barrow will see winds turn
southwesterly Saturday and gust up 25 mph.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A broad area of high pressure over the Arctic Ocean and Western
Canada will continue to entrench itself in the area. An area of
low pressure will move into the Chuckchi Sea by Saturday with a
stout frontal boundary associated with it. This front will move
into the Northwest Arctic Saturday night bringing cooler
temperatures. By Monday afternoon the front will set up in the
Western Interior north of Galena. This arctic cold front will help
to stop more of the warm air from the south to reach into the
Northern Interior. On Sunday we will see the first upper-level
shortwave to move into the Y-K Delta, Lower Yukon, and Upper
Kuskokwim Valley. This shortwave will see our first chance to see
a wintry mix in the region. Models are indicating a warm nose from
850 to 900 mb with temperatures up to 1C. This would allow for
melting to begin, but wouldn`t be enough to fully melt into rain.
With a shallow melting layer we could see ice pellets or a
rain/snow mix from Marshall to McGrath until the main front
arrives Monday night. In the first 3 days there is much better
confidence on seeing ice accumulations in the Southwest Interior
and parts of Y-K Delta. However, the extended forecast period
starting monday night, begins to see some major model
discrepancies. Those will be discussed in the Extended Forecast
Section.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Behind the arctic cold front that sets up in the Western Interior
Monday, there is a very strong area of high pressure in Eastern
Siberia. This area of high pressure is the cause of much of the
model discrepancy this morning. The GFS ensemble and ECMWF
ensemble are producing two different solutions that would impact
what we would see here in Northern Alaska. The GFS solution has
the low that will move towards the Aleutian Islands, but stay
south of them. This would limit how much moisture and warm air can
make it into the Interior due to high pressure blocking it. The
ECMWF solution on the other hand is trying to bring the low center
into Bristol Bay. This would be a much wetter and warmer
solution. The Canadian ensemble was consistently with the ECMWF
solution the past couple of day, but that has changed as there has
not been a lot of run-to-run model agreement. With inconsistency
between the model suites, it is hard to build confidence on
precipitation types, amounts, and temperatures come early next
week and into mid week. As we move towards the end of the week
however, there is good agreement between the ensembles that we
will be getting colder.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ825-826-830-851-852.
Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-809-812-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-856.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-860.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ856>858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&
$$
Dennis
131
FXAK67 PAJK 281807
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
907 AM AKST Fri Nov 28 2025
.UPDATE...Update to include the 18Z TAF issuance.
The forecast remains on track this morning with minimal cloud cover
across a majority of the panhandle, with the exception of
Yakutat. A front continues to bring rain over the Yakutat area.
This front will continue to bring rain and slightly elevated winds
to the far northern gulf areas into tonight.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Weak northerly outflow winds continue Friday.
- A front moving over the far northern gulf is bringing light to
moderate precipitation to Yakutat through Friday morning.
- A stronger system arrives late Saturday into Sunday bringing
widespread precipitation and gale force winds to the gulf.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Minimal changes have been made to the short term
forecast overnight. Remaining strong outflow winds have largely
diminished, with a majority of communities feeling light to gentle
breezes (4 to 10 kts) persist through Friday. Isolated areas of
the Icy Strait corridor and coming out of Cross Sound and Taku
Inlet are holding onto fresh breezes (17 to 21 kts) through the
morning with the pressure gradient becoming more parallel with the
panhandle, though they are expected to weaken by Friday
afternoon.
A front in the northern gulf has moved into Yakutat overnight,
increasing light to moderate precipitation chances into Friday
evening. Freezing temperatures overnight have slightly warmed up
through Friday morning as the front moves through, transitioning
the Thursday night rain and snow mix to all rain through the rest
of Friday. Only around half an inch of rain is expected in the
next 24 hours. The bulk of precipitation is expected through the
morning hours, trickling out by Friday evening. This front will
increase cloud cover across the rest of the panhandle through the
day, though skies are forecast to clear out through the evening
and into Saturday. PoPs were further reduced across the northern
panhandle Friday morning, decreasing the potential for light
flurries or sprinkles with this front.
850 mb temperatures have remained cool across the northern
panhandle, though are indicating warmer mid level temperatures
over the southern panhandle. The lack of significant cloud cover
and calm winds overnight has created a cold pool of near to below
freezing temperatures at the surface of the interior panhandle
this morning. Light winds continue to be forecast through the day,
indicating the likelihood of only a small daytime rise in
temperatures. Highs around the high 30s are probable for the
southern panhandle, and staying around the lower to mid 30s for
the rest of the panhandle. The exception to this would be the
outer coastal communities, as the slightly warmer offshore
temperatures will be more influential with outflow weakening. As
skies clear for a majority of the panhandle through Friday
evening, radiative cooling will drop temperatures again overnight.
.LONG TERM...
In the wake of a weak warm front which largely fell
apart as it tried to move through the panhandle, drier weather
lingers through Saturday afternoon, barring a few chances of
showers for the southern panhandle and Yakutat.
By Saturday night the drier weather is brought to a halt as a
warm front advances north across the panhandle, beginning to move
over the area late Friday night, and overrunning SE AK on Sunday.
It remains a challenge to forecast just how quickly warm air will
advect into the panhandle with this system, given its distance
from the parent low. Some changes have been made to the previous
forecast, as confidence has grown in a more South to North
trajectory for this system, which could result in better
conditions for accumulating snow across the northern panhandle.
While the airmass already in place will be marginal at best, snow
melt cooling could prove sufficient to bring snow accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches for Haines and Skagway on Sunday, with the
possibility of more snow for their highways respectively.
Precipitation across the Icy Strait Corridor looks to start out as
snow before transitioning to a mix then rain. This could allow for
some likely accumulations across this area but it would likely be
limited to a couple of inches at best. By Sunday afternoon, warm
air advection will have forced a changeover to rain by Sunday
afternoon. By Sunday evening, rising snow levels will have
resulted in a transition to rain for most locations except the
Klondike, where snow may linger until early Monday morning. Some
minor changes were made to slightly increase QPF amounts for this
system, with up to 2 inches in 24 hours expected along the NE Gulf
coast with the heaviest rates of between 0.4 and 0.6 inches in 6
hours expected Sunday evening into Sunday night. The rest of the
panhandle is expected to see between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of QPF.
Onshore flow will keep chances of rain in the forecast on Monday.
There is a potential for a lull on Tuesday, as low level ridging
briefly rebuilds. Better chances of precipitation return to the
forecast by Wednesday as SE AK finds itself on the NE flank of a
building trough anchored across the Bering and the western Gulf,
and through the end of the week. Ensembles continue to show some
disagreement regarding the particular details especially as the
low tries to move to the North and East. Forecast confidence
remains on the lower end due to this spread.
&&
.AVIATION...
Continued mainly VFR conditions with elevated ceilings and
visibilities continue across the panhandle. The exception will be
near Yakutat where a front continues to bring rain and lowered
ceilings AoB 2500 ft. Visibilities near Yakutat will decrease at
times, but is likely to stay AoA 5 SM throughout the day. These
lowered conditions will continue into late tonight before starting
to see ceilings lift. At that time dominant offshore flow and VFR
conditions will occur across the panhandle. As for winds, they will
remain light below 5 kts for the majority of the panhandle. These
winds will remain light well into tomorrow before starting to
increase late Saturday into Sunday. Lastly, forecast confidence is
low, but some areas of patchy fog are possible to develop this
evening over parts of the central eastern panhandle.
&&
.MARINE...
Outside: A strong front has moved into the northern gulf
overnight, bringing a swath of strong south to southeasterly
breezes to the central and northern gulf Friday morning. The far
northern coast from Icy Cape to Cape Suckling will see
southeasterly gale force winds with strong gale force gusts
persist through Friday morning. Winds in the central gulf will
quickly decrease to 10 to 15 kts in the wake of the front Friday
afternoon, with the northern gulf coast holding onto 15 to 20 kt
winds overnight into Saturday. Gulf winds will largely begin to
increase through the day Saturday as another gale force front
moves into the eastern gulf. Strongest winds around 40 kts are
expected along the coast north of Cape Ommaney going into Sunday.
Wave heights of 10 to 15 ft at a period of 8 seconds following
the front will decrease to 5 to 8 ft by Friday night before
increasing through Saturday to eventually return to 10 to 15 ft at
a period of 10 seconds by Sunday morning. SSW 5 ft swell will
also slightly decrease Friday night before returning to 5 ft
through Saturday. 10 ft of southwesterly swell will overtake the
gulf following the strong front Sunday morning.
Inside: Outflow winds have significantly weakened through Friday
morning, with most areas expected to persist at around 5 to 15 kts
through Friday. Cross Sound, Taku Inlet, and isolated areas of
Icy Strait have held onto around 20 kts of wind overnight, though
are expected to decrease into the afternoon hours as the pressure
gradient begins to turn and weaken. Winds are expected to remain
relatively lighter through Saturday before another gale force
front moves into the eastern gulf Sunday, increasing to around 20
to 30 kts through the morning. Wave heights of 1 to 3 ft will
increase to around 4 to 6 ft with the front Sunday.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ053-644-651-663-664-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...GFS/SF
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...ZTK
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