947
FXAK68 PAFC 020247
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
547 PM AKST Mon Dec 1 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
This afternoon through Thursday afternoon)...
Winter Weather Advisories are now in effect for as the next front
approaches Southcentral Alaska. Here are the Advisories in
effect:
* Anchorage, Eagle River, and Lower Matanuska Valley (including
Palmer and Wasilla): Rain/freezing rain coinciding with near-
freezing temperatures tomorrow morning, bringing the potential
for additional icing on roads.
* Along the Parks Highway from Houston north to Talkeetna: Snow
and freezing rain from late tonight through early Wednesday
morning, with 2-4 inches of snow and up to 0.15 inches of ice.
* Northern Copper Valley (Richardson Highway mile markers 150 to
200) and Northern Susitna Valley (north of Talkeetna): 6-8
inches of snow from late tonight through Wednesday morning.
Precipitation has largely tapered off as a shortwave ridge begins
to move into the Southcentral Mainland, bringing a short break in
precipitation for tonight. Clear skies have given rise to areas of
low stratus and fog, with patchy fog (which may be dense at times)
possible along Cook Inlet from Anchor Point north to Anchorage and
into the Lower Matanuska Valley. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in
effect for the Anchorage Bowl. When the fog will dissipate remains
uncertain, but it could linger through tomorrow morning as there
won`t be much wind to scour it out.
Later this evening, a front will begin progressing northeastward
into the Gulf, reaching Kodiak Island just before midnight. Steady
precipitation begins early tomorrow morning as the front makes
its way into the Southcentral Mainland. Overall, with the front
weakening before it reaches the Southcentral Mainland, there won`t
be very much wind or warm air advection. As such, expect
temperatures to remain much the same as we`re seeing right now.
This will be a problem for the Anchorage area up to the Mat-Su
Valleys as this rain will be falling in areas where temperatures
are near or below freezing, and onto already-icy side and
neighborhood streets. For Susitna Valley in particular, localized
colder conditions near Willow will likely lead to higher ice
accumulations, especially with heavier precipitation in that area.
Further north, upslope flow onto the southern face of the Alaska
Range will lead to higher snow accumulations near Broad and
Isabel Passes.
-Chen
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...
A significant low level inversion persists over Southwest Alaska
this afternoon, in advance of a strong North Pacific low that is
moving toward the eastern Aleutians. This is setting up Southwest
Alaska for rain in the warmer air around Bristol Bay and a
significant ice storm for the Kuskokwim Valley and Delta. As this
low drives northward, it will elongate as it reaches the Aleutians
and pushes into the high pressure over the Arctic. This will
greatly enhance the pressure gradient and bring widespread Gale
and Storm force winds to the Bering Sea and adjacent coasts.
The biggest concern for the weather tonight into Tuesday night is
for the Kuskokwim region where this storm pumps in warm air aloft
over the cold surface air. This will result in a long-duration
freezing rain event for Bethel and along the Kuskokwim River from
tonight into Wednesday morning. Ice accumulations are expected to
one-half to three-quarters of an inch for this time period,
resulting in an Ice Storm Warning. To the north and west of the
Kuskokwim River in the Delta region, the arctic front will stall
out and create a significant thermal boundary. This is expected to
create Blizzard conditions for Nunivak and Nelson Islands
tomorrow. This change from freezing rain to snow/blowing snow will
likely be a sharp boundary, but Nunivak and Nelson Islands are
expected to see the worst of the blizzard conditions. By
Wednesday, the low center will still be in the Unalaska area, but
will have weakened enough to bring marine winds to Gale force and
allow the temperatures over the Kuskokwim region to fall below
freezing at all levels of the atmosphere which will end the
freezing rain threat. The Bristol Bay region will be slower to
cool off and may keep precipitation type as rain until Thursday,
especially for coastal areas. After Thursday, this the entire
region will drastically cool down and get quite cold for the
weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Friday through Monday)...
An initial trough should be lifting into Southcentral on Friday
with light to moderate rain pushing into the coastal mountains
and a chance for a rain/snow mix for interior locations of the
Copper Basin, Anchorage and the MatSu Valley. On a slightly more
optimistic note, the time period from Friday into the weekend may
bring an end to the unseasonably warmer temperatures Southcentral
and Southwest Alaska have been experiencing as of late. A
previously active pattern trough over the Aleutians is forecast to
become closed off, allowing an arctic trough over the Seward
Peninsula to dive southward into the southwest coast. Much cooler
temperatures over Canada, previously shunted east of the ALCAN
border will spill into interior Alaska Friday into early next
week. Ensemble guidance and deterministic models all show a broad
trough overspreading the Gulf of Alaska Saturday into Sunday, with
a closed surface low developing somewhere east of the Kenai
Peninsula, south of Prince William Sound. This will open the door
for various scenarios to play out, conditional on the exact
placement of the closed low. A low further east may allow colder
temperatures to spread across the region more quickly while a low
further north might favor increasing snow chances for much of
Southcentral. Despite the uncertainties, a pattern change appears
likely during the long term forecast period with a significant
cool down in the not too distance future.
-BL
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...The forecast for the remainder of this afternoon and
evening is quite challenging. Fog has settled in across the
Anchorage Bowl in a moist and stable environment. There is very
little change in the environment until low level flow strengthens
overnight. Thus, expect fog will linger. The fog is shallow, so do
suspect there will be some erosion from the edges, with improving
conditions as we head into and through tonight.
Another round of rain is on the way for tomorrow, with arrival at
the terminal at around 15Z. Assuming there is no clearing skies
this evening, surface temperatures will hover near or slightly
above freezing, then very slowly rise tomorrow morning. Thus,
conditions are not as favorable for freezing rain, though some
surfaces might be cold enough initially for some of the rain to
freeze on contact. Precipitation will be light and will end by
late tomorrow morning as downslope flow increases ahead of an
occluded front. As the front passes late Tuesday evening, may see
a weak wind coming off Turnagain Arm, which would likely warm
temperatures into the upper 30s. Should light north-northwesterly
remain at the surface, low-level wind shear will be possible.
-SEB/Rux
&&
$$
328
FXAK69 PAFG 021330
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
430 AM AKST Tue Dec 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm moving through the Aleutians into the Southern
Bering Sea will bring a well developed moisture north plume into
Northern Alaska today and Wednesday, interacting with remnant
moisture and a cold front over the Interior. This will set the
stage for moderate to heavy snow to develop from the Yukon Delta
northeast to the Yukon Flats, where a mix of Winter Storm Warnings
and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect through Wednesday. A
light wintry mix also remains likely from Fairbanks south, with
best chances across the Southwest Interior and Lower Yukon/Upper
Kuskokwim Valleys. Under the increasing influence of high pressure
building in midweek out of the northwest, much colder and drier
conditions are expected to return regionwide.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Snow continues across the Interior today and Wednesday, with a
light wintry mix from Fairbanks south today and tonight.
- Total snow accumulations through Wednesday around 3-5" with
highest totals around 5-8" north/west of Fairbanks and in the
Alaska Range and lowest totals around 1-3" SE of Fairbanks.
- Wind gusts up to 55 mph continue through Alaska Range Passes
today, subsiding tonight into Wednesday.
- Temperatures fall rapidly Wednesday night into Thursday as
increasing high pressure building in will support clearer skies
and much colder/drier conditions. Temperatures in Interior
Valleys dropping to around -20F to -40F starting Wednesday
night.
- Snow showers will shift southeast Wednesday into Thursday,
continuing across portions of Interior and in the Alaska Range
through early next week.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Snow continues to increase in coverage across Southwest Alaska
and the Western Interior today into Tuesday, continuing through
Wednesday, with a wintry mix across the Southwest Interior and
Lower Yukon/Upper Kuskokwim Valleys. Conditions remain dry
across the Seward Peninsula and NW Arctic Coast.
- Highest snow totals through Wednesday are expected along a
corridor extending northeast from the Yukon Delta into the
Western Interior, where around 5-10" of snow is expected with
2-5" along the peripheries.
- Total ice accumulations across the Southwest Interior and Lower
Yukon/Kuskokwim Valleys around 0.05-0.20".
- Elevated N/NE winds with gusts up to 55 mph will continue across
the West Coast through Wednesday. Areas of fog, isolated snow
showers, and blowing snow will lead to periods of reduced
visibility at times, especially for the Bering Straight, St.
Lawrence Island, and Southern Norton Sound/Yukon Delta Coast.
- Increasing high pressure out of the northwest will lead to
colder and drier conditions across the NW Arctic Coast,
expanding further south Wednesday through the end of a week.
Coldest locations dropping to around -10F to -25F mid to late
week.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Temperatures continue on a cooling trend early this week, with
areas of low stratus and scattered snow showers expected as a
low pressure system works east through the Arctic Ocean.
- An arctic front tracking east across the North Slope through
Wednesday will support an additional 1-3" of snow for the
Eastern Arctic Coast/Plains and Central/Eastern Brooks Range.
Dry conditions are expected to continue further west.
- Breezy winds across the Arctic Coast and in the Brooks Range
could lead to areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility at
times through Wednesday night.
- Increasing high pressure out of the northwest today into
Wednesday will lead to much colder and drier conditions to
finish out the week. Coldest locations dropping to around -20F
to -40F starting tonight.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday Night.
Early morning satellite imagery shows a 960 mb low lifting north
through the Central/Eastern Aleutians into the Southern Bering
Sea, an arctic trough continuing to build into Northwest Alaska,
and a series of ridges of high pressure: one extending from the NW
Pacific into Siberia and another from the NE Pacific into Eastern
Alaska and Western Canada. This setup will combine to pull in a
colder airmass out of the northwest and a warmer/wetter airmass in
out of the southwest, meeting in the Interior and supporting
widespread snow chances. Given a surge of warm and moist air
lifting north with this system today into Wednesday, high
confidence supports moderate to heavy snow across the Interior
along a corridor extending from the Yukon Delta northeast to the
Yukon Flats and in the Alaska Range. With this warm air
overrunning colder air at the surface at times especially further
south, a wintry mix is expected from Fairbanks south and even more
so out towards the Lower Yukon and Upper Kuskokwim Valleys. Gusty
winds persist across the West Coast today into Wednesday with
gusts up to 55 mph expected. Areas of fog, isolated snow showers,
and blowing snow will lead to periods of reduced visibility a
times, especially for the Bering Straight, St. Lawrence Island,
and Southern Norton Sound/Yukon Delta Coast.
As that ridge of high pressure extending from the NW Pacific into
Siberia shifts east midweek, this will allow for a much colder
and drier, arctic airmass to build into Northern Alaska Wednesday
into Thursday. Moisture from that low near the Aleutians will
ultimately get cut off and shift southeast out of our CWA. This
will lead to lessening winds along the West Coast throughout the
day Wednesday as snow chances taper off across the Interior north
to the Arctic Coast NW to SE Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Isolated snow showers will linger across the Southeast Interior
and Alaska Range through the weekend. Starting tonight,
widespread double digit below zero temperatures are expected to
fill in across the North Slope, Brooks Range, and Northwest
Interior, further expanding south across the Interior for
Wednesday night and Thursday night. Coldest areas are expected to
see air temperatures reach down to around -20F to -40F. As the
high drifts east to the eastern Brooks Range, a period of gusty
northeast winds are likely over Dalton, Steese, and Elliott
Highway Summits starting late Thursday and continuing through the
weekend, which could lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Friday through next Tuesday.
Ensemble model guidance through the extended forecast remains in
good agreement, with broad troughing expected to push southeast
from the Yukon Territory and Beaufort Sea across Northern Alaska
Friday into Saturday. As the base of this trough extends southwest
into the Gulf of Alaska, a closed low is expected to develop.
This setup will continue to reinforce very cold temperatures
overhead, with 850 mb temperatures hovering around -15C to -30C
supporting lows dropping down to around -20F to -40F. During this
timeframe, gusty northeast winds are likely to develop over
Dalton, Steese, and Elliott Highway Summits starting late Thursday
and continuing through the weekend, which could lead to areas of
blowing and drifting snow. These enhanced northeast winds will
also expand to be across much of our CWA heading into the weekend,
which could lead to wind chills at times below -40F, which we
will continue to monitor. The Central/Eastern Interior may also
see some light snow into early next week depending on the track
of a number of weaker systems moving west to east across the Gulf
of Alaska, with any accumulations expected to be light.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ824-829-832>835-837>850.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ825-826-830-851-852.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821-827.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-802.
Gale Warning for PKZ803.
Gale Warning for PKZ804-852.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-807.
Gale Warning for PKZ806.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-816-817-850-851-853-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-853.
Gale Warning for PKZ850-851-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&
$$
MacKay
847
FXAK67 PAJK 021400
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
500 AM AKST Tue Dec 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Another front arrives late Tuesday into Tuesday night, bringing
predominantly rain, some increased wind, and continued warmer-
than- normal temperatures into midweek.
- Late week into next weekend, long range models are still
hinting at a weather pattern that has been known to produce
heavy snow. High uncertainty at this time but worth watching
closely.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday night/ SW onshore flow is dominate
this morning across the area though winds in general are 15 kt or
less for the most part. The onshore flow from the gulf combined
with the recent precipitation, and the long nights this time of
year are creating widespread low clouds with some fog and drizzle
this morning. Yakutat, Gustavus, Petersburg, and Sitka have been
the most impacted with ceilings down to 200 ft and vis below a
mile at times overnight. Petersburg in particular, had had vis
down to a quarter mile which prompted a dense fog advisory until 9
am for them.
Short range forecast features a transition from SW flow and soupy
conditions to more southerly winds with increasing wind speeds
and precip as a new front moves in from the W later today into
tonight. The transition to southerly will occur during the day,
but winds will stay somewhat low (15 kt or less) across the
panhandle until starting to increase this evening. This combined
with the low sun angle this time of year may cause the low clouds
and fog to linger into the afternoon and maybe early evening
before improving as winds start increasing and heavier precip
moves in. So have kept patchy fog for many inner channels areas
through the afternoon hours today.
As for the front, the increased winds and rain will be starting to
show up along the outer coast as early as late this afternoon
before spreading inland through the evening. The period of max
winds and rain for the panhandle will be from around late evening
to early Wednesday morning. Neither the winds or the precip will
be exceptionally strong with this front. Winds will likely max out
around 25 kt with most of that being out in the gulf waters.
Meanwhile the precip (mostly falling as rain with snow levels
around 2500 to 3000 ft) will total around 0.25 to 0.75 inches
through midday Wednesday. White Pass will likely see snow, but
with not much moisture expected to make it up that way snow
amounts will likely only be around 1 to 2 inches over any given
12 hour period.
.LONG TERM.../through this weekend/...The upcoming week is
looking like another cloudy and rainy week. There will be lulls
between the frontal passages, with precipitation chances mainly
limited to western facing mountains, but the overall trend in the
long term forecast is cloudy and rainy this week. But late this
week into next weekend, ensembles are hinting at a weather
pattern that has been known to produce heavy snow.
Friday into the weekend, the overall weather pattern looks to
change. Ensembles are hinting at a upper air low pressure
descending south out of central Alaska. Run to run ensembles have
increasingly placed this low to the west of Anchorage, but cluster
analysis has this low as far east as Prince William Sound, around
a 40% or less chance of occurrence. What this translates into
sensible weather for the panhandle is how deep will the cold pool
in Canada get. The further east the low center is, the more the
cold pool in Canada will be developed, and the further south the
southwesterly flow will be. The stronger the cold pool in Canada
is, the further south the associated arctic boundary will be,
which will dictate what part of the panhandle will get the most
snow. At this point, guidance is backing off on the low placement
to west of Anchorage as the more likely scenario, which would
bring warmer temperatures further north, keeping the arctic
boundary near the northern panhandle.
Confidence is low for placement of heaviest snow, with confidence
intervals for the northern half of the panhandle being between
all rain with little to no snow accumulation to nearly 12 inches
of snow in 24 hours.
Furthermore, there is evidence that if this upcoming weekend
system does not generate substantial snowfall for the panhandle,
early to mid next week is shaping up to keep this pattern going,
which would result in multiple rounds of snow. These upcoming
systems will be carefully watched over the following days.
Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION...
Poor flying conditions continue to be prevalent across the
majority of the region this Tuesday morning, with many TAF sites
at or below IFR from low CIGS and/or VSBY from FG. Not expecting
much improvement through Tuesday as a weak ridge transits east
over the Panhandle driving light winds, with low sun angle
helping to reinforce either FG or low CIGS. Later Tuesday evening
a front will move across the Panhandle, bringing elevated
southerly winds, moderate rainfall, and perhaps some improvement
to CIGs; however, MVFR to IFR conditions are forecasted to
continue. Near 2000-2200 local time Tuesday night LLWS threats
begin along the coast from southeast winds 30 to 40 knots at
2500ft.
&&
.MARINE...
Gulf Waters: Incoming front is already starting to switch wind
directions across the gulf as winds at buoy 46085 have already
turned to the SE while the buoys closer to shore are starting to
turn SW this morning. Expect those winds to continue to turn to
the SE with an increase in speeds to around 25 kt by this
afternoon and evening from W to E with winds near the coast
staying near 25 kt through the night. Winds are then expected to
switch to the S and then SW at 20 kt again for Wednesday in the
post front environment. Seas are rather high with 10 ft wave
heights mainly from a SW swell of 8 ft (period 14 sec). Not much
change is expected for seas heights overall with 10 ft wave
heights common. The increased winds from the front will briefly
take over wave generation duties as SW swell diminishes to 6 ft
later today. However as the wind diminish, the SW swell picks up
to 8 ft again into Wednesday before starting to slowly subside
into Wednesday night.
Inside waters: Lighter winds to 15 kt from the south will rule the
inner channels for Tuesday. These lower winds are helping form
some patchy fog in some areas with visibility down to less then a
mile at times. Fog is expected to persist through the morning and
may even last into the afternoon in some areas due to the low
winds and low sun angle. Expect winds to start increasing this
evening as a front approaches likely getting rid of most of the
fog, but heavier precip will start moving in with the wind
increase. Max winds will be around 20 to 25 kt late tonight mainly
over the southern 2/3rds of the inner channels before diminishing
into Wednesday afternoon. Seas (mainly wind wave) will build to 5
ft tonight before subsiding into Wednesday. SW swell from the gulf
will lead to higher seas in ocean entrances exposed to the SW and
W with up to 8 ft seas encountered in these areas through
Wednesday.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ326.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-034-036-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...EAL
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