904
FXAK68 PAFC 220117
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
417 PM AKST Fri Nov 21 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3 )...
An area of low pressure currently over the western Sound and soon
to overspread Whittier continues to be the focus for winter
precipitation this afternoon and tonight. Current radar shows
light returns from the Knik Arm down through Cook Inlet,
Anchorage, and the Kenai Peninsula, with additional returns
pushing into Prince William Sound and the coast. Snow has been
persistent across Homer and Seldovia where a winter weather
advisory remains in effect for 4 to 10 inches of total snowfall
through Saturday morning. Snow has been much lighter elsewhere
from Kenai into Anchorage, and only a dusting to possibly one half
inch is forecast. Temperatures have warmed to above freezing
along portions of the Seward Highway from the eastern Turnagain
Arm down to Seward, and rain has been the primary form of
precipitation. However, temperatures are expected to drop below
freezing again later this evening/tonight with an additional 1 to
3 inches forecast from Girdwood to Turnagain Pass.
As the low continues to lift further inland light precipitation
will remain possible through early Saturday morning while also
expanding into the Susitna Valley. Model guidance has a second
smaller trough dropping south from interior Alaska, converging
upon the Southcentral low, with a brief chance for a second round
of snow spreading into western portions of the Susitna Valley
after midnight tonight. Accumulations here will also only amount
to a dusting.
Precipitation across Southcentral clears out over the weekend
with cooler temperatures to set in across the region. As soon as
precipitation comes to an end on Saturday morning the potential
for patchy fog will increase across the Mat-Valley, Anchorage
Bowl, and Western Kenai Peninsula. Expect highs on Saturday to
remain below freezing for all but coastal locations. Temperatures
will trend cooler into Sunday with morning lows in the teens for
the MatSu and Western Kenai Peninsula, to single digits across the
Copper River Basin.
-BL
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 to 3: Today through Sunday night)...
A compact low pressure system diving across the Alaska Peninsula
(AKPen) will promote gusty northwesterly winds out of favored gaps
and passes on the southern side of the AKPen this evening
diminishing tonight. As the low exits south, northwesterly winds
will be drawn down the eastern Bering along portions of the
Southwest Coastline. Simultaneously, a shortwave moving south over
the Kuskokwim Delta will bring a quick shot of snowfall to the
region tonight. Expect up to 2 inches of new snowfall from this
wave. These systems will work in tandem to create a period of
blowing snow across the Kuskokwim Delta. The worst conditions are
expected along the coast, from Kipnuk to Toksook Bay 9pm to
midnight tonight.
Temperatures will trend steadily cooler across the Bering Sea and
Southwest Alaska in the wake of this low, with low temperatures
dropping into the 20s for the Alaska Peninsula Saturday and Sunday
nights, with single digit lows for the interior Kuskokwim Delta
and Lower Kuskokwim Valley. Freezing fog over the greater Bristol
Bay region is possible Saturday morning. Out west, a North Pacific
low lifts to near the Western Aleutians by Saturday. Its front
brings strong winds, up to storm- force (50 kts) across the
western and central Aleutians along with moderate to heavy rain.
The low remains south of the Aleutians through the weekend, its
front lifting slowly into the eastern Aleutians through Sunday
night. Southwest Alaska remains dry and cold under offshore flow
on Sunday. Sunday night/Monday morning may see negative low
temperatures from the lower Kusko Valley into the Kuskokwim Delta.
-CL
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Tuesday through Friday)...
Starting on Tuesday, a vertically stacked low and large cyclonic
circulation will be centered south of the Aleutians in a weakening
phase. Short-waves embedded within the circulation will track from
east to west from the western Gulf/Kodiak Island across the Alaska
Peninsula and Bristol Bay and continuing westward across the
southern bering Sea. None of the features look particularly
strong, so would expect areas of precipitation and wind with
typical winter- time impacts. Precipitation-type will be mainly
rain, with Bristol Bay being the only location cold enough to see
snow. The upper low will open up into a trough by Thursday
(Thanksgiving), causing winds and precipitation to diminish.
Meanwhile, a strong ridge in the Arctic will build southward over
the northern half of mainland Alaska. This looks far enough south
to block any short-waves from the Aleutian trough from reaching
interior SW AK or Southcentral AK. Thus, expect seasonably cool
and dry conditions for these areas Tuesday through Wednesday. A
short-wave will dig down the east side of the ridge on Wednesday,
across the Yukon and into the Copper River Basin. This will bring
marginally colder temperatures, though accompanying cloud cover
will likely limit temperature drops. This trough will force the
upper ridge to retreat back northward and allow a short-wave
trough to approach Southcentral on Thursday. Model agreement with
this feature is not great, but ensembles generally support this
idea. With a cold air mass in place over Southcentral, the most
likely outcome would be widespread light snow arriving sometime
Thanksgiving Day.
As we continue to Friday, model guidance is in excellent agreement
on amplification of the upper level flow and development of an
Atmospheric River. However, as would be expected this far out in
time, there is large spread in the location of the ridge/trough
and track of a leading surface low from the Pacific. This evolving
pattern does have good potential to bring higher impact weather
to southern Alaska, with strong winds, mixed precipitation-types,
and warming temperatures. Stay tuned as we monitor the location of
key features and identify the areas where the greatest impacts
are most likely.
-SEB
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...AN area of low pressure over western Prince William Sound
will continue to pinwheel moisture and cloud cover over Anchorage
and the terminal through early Saturday morning. MVFR ceilings are
expected to persist through late this afternoon then lower to low
MVFR or IFR ceilings and vis as steadier light snow develops.
Light snow should taper off by 12z, early Saturday morning, as the
low weakens and moves inland.
Lingering low-level moisture and a weakening wind flow in the
lower half of the atmosphere will likely result in low stratus
remaining over the terminal through Saturday morning. There is a
chance that this cloud deck either continues to lower through
early to mid morning, or erodes just enough to result the
development of fog due to additional radiational cooling. Either
way, clearing behind the low is not expected. Moreover, any drier
air aloft coupled with lingering low stratus and/or fog, could
result in some light flurries or freezing drizzle early to mid
Saturday morning. Right now, this is a low confidence solution,
but will be monitored.
&&
$$
512
FXAK69 PAFG 221204
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
304 AM AKST Sat Nov 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Snow continues in the Eastern Interior north of the Tok. Heavier
bands of snow amongst the more widespread light snow may lead to
locally higher snowfall totals. Snow diminishes Saturday night
through Sunday. Gusty northwesterly winds along the West Coast
continue to weaken through Saturday. Increasing pressure from the
West and Northwest will bring colder and drier conditions to
Northern Alaska early next week. There is potential for a warmer
and wetter pattern late next week.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Steadier snow continues through Saturday night. Some showers
remain early Sunday. Storm total snow is listed below.
- 6 to 12 inches of heavy snow in the White Mountains and
elevated terrain south of the Yukon Flats. A Winter Storm
Warning has been issued for heavy snow. The heaviest snow will
be north and east of Eagle Summit, especially near Circle and
Chalkyitsik.
- 2 to 4 inches in Fairbanks area (including Eielson), though
areas beneath heavier bands of snow could see 6+" similar to
the White Mountains.
- 1 to 3 inches from Delta to Nenana north/west to Bettles.
- Little to no snow accumulations from Tok south/east.
- Colder and drier conditions return next week.
- Temperatures fall to highs in the low teens to single digits
and lows in the negative teens to single digits by Tuesday.
- Clouds clear late Sunday into Monday. Temperatures decrease
further in valley locations under clear skies as stronger
temperature inversions develop.
- Increasing northeast winds Monday through next week. Areas of
blowing snow and low visibility with difficult travel conditions
over Dalton, Elliott, and Steese Highway Summits next week.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Showery snow and gusty northwesterly winds slowly diminish
Saturday.
- Isolated snow showers linger through Saturday. Accumulations
less than an inch.
- North-northwesterly winds along the coast with gusts 25 to 35
mph. Western Interior gusts 15 to 25 mph.
- Colder and drier conditions return next week.
- Temperatures fall from the 20s to single digits over the
weekend to the teens and single digits by Monday.
- Western Interior Valleys lows fall to the negative single
digits late Sunday into Monday.
- Winds shift east-northeast along the West Coast Sunday into
Monday and increase Monday into Wednesday. Easterly wind gusts
20 to 30 mph by Wednesday.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Areas of light snow continue on the Slope, Beaufort Sea Coast
and in the Brooks Range this weekend. Snow accumulations will be
around 1 to 3 inches with a couple of spots near 4 inches in
the Eastern Brooks Range and near Kaktovik through Sunday.
- Colder and drier conditions return next week.
- Temperatures fall from the teens to single digits to the single
digits to near 0 Monday along the coast.
- In the Brooks Range Valleys temperatures fall into the negative
teens and possibly the negative 20s.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
For Saturday morning through Monday night.
At the start of the forecast period, Saturday morning, a messy
trough sits over eastern Alaska and a more organized ridge builds
into the Bering Sea. This trough is composed of two main upper
level lows located near Kodiak Island and just east of the Brooks
Range in Canada, both around 515 decameters in strength and one
weaker upper level low over the Western Interior around 520
decameters in strength. A 526 decameter upper level high near
Point Barrow is strengthened by the ridge in the Bering Sea. The
low east of the Brooks Range is fueling snowfall across the
Eastern Interior. Bands of snow are moving from north to south,
bringing heavier snow to the White Mountains and elevated terrain
north and east of Fairbanks. The low in the Western Interior is
helping to support some of this snowfall too allowing some light
snow to reach as far west as the Upper Kuskokwim River. Individual
bands of snow embedded in this pattern may be strong enough to
over-perform and generate localized areas of more snow than
expected.
Another, stronger, upper level low around 506 decameters strong
moves east from the northwest Pacific to just south of the
Aleutians late Saturday through Sunday. This low cuts off the
ridge in the Bering Sea, creating a more distinct upper level high
near the Chukotsk Peninsula which combines with the high over the
North Slope into a 550 decameter upper level high over the Chukchi
Sea by Monday morning. This low south of the Aleutians becomes
less organized and allows several smaller lows and shortwaves to
rotate around it early next week. Confidence is low on the exact
timing and placement of these features but they should mostly
remain south of the Yukon Delta. The lows to the east weaken and
get pushed further east by this building high pressure allowing it
to dominate Northern Alaska, bringing colder, drier, and clearer
conditions to areas north of the Alaska Range through much of next
week.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For Tuesday through next Saturday.
At the start of the extended forecast period, Tuesday, a strong
upper level Arctic high pressure around 552 decameters sits over
the Chukchi Sea and a messy upper level low around 515 decameters
spins south of the Aleutians which will slowly weaken through the
week. These two features interact to generate gusty easterly flow
across the Interior and West Coast. Areas that recently received
snowfall may be vulnerable to periods of reduced visibility due to
blowing snow. This high brings colder, drier, and clearer
conditions through much of next week to the region.
Later next week, another low moves from the west across the North
Pacific and phases with the weakening low south of the Aleutians
Thursday. This creates a very amplified pattern Friday into next
weekend with a strong upper level low in the North Pacific and a
developing ridge in the northeastern Pacific stretching towards
the Arctic high which will have moved slowly east towards the
Eastern Arctic Coast. This highly amplified pattern could produce
a strong atmospheric river transporting moisture from as far south
as 20N towards Alaska. If that develops, then significantly
warmer and wetter conditions are possible across Northern Alaska
potentially bringing large amounts of wintry mix and rain to areas
of the Interior. Confidence is still low on the exact details of
this feature due to how far out it is, but there is good run to
run consistency in the models and relatively good ensemble
agreement. The biggest area of potential uncertainty is in how
this next low phases with the previous one and where exactly an
atmospheric river could develop. Further west solutions would be
more likely to bring rain to the Interior, but it is still unclear
on how this system will develop. Regardless it will still be
strong enough to bring significant warming and much more moisture
to the state.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ833-834.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ838-842.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-804>807-852-853-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-803.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-806-853-854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-817-854-857-858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850-857-858.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
&&
$$
Stokes
930
FXAK67 PAJK 220622
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
922 PM AKST Fri Nov 21 2025
.UPDATE...Update to the AVIATION section to include the 06z TAFS.
Update to the NEAR TERM section. Update to the LONG TERM section
to include more discussion about next week.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Showers continue tracking into the panhandle. Isolated thunder
has been reported this evening along the coast, will continue
into tonight especially for the southern panhandle.
- Winter Weather Advisory for the Klondike Highway was canceled
earlier. Snow is still expected, but not to advisory levels.
- Active shower pattern continues through the weekend.
- High uncertainty with next week`s forecast. One scenario would
continue the rain-showery pattern while another scenario would
give dry skies and colder-than-normal temps.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../Tonight/...Forecast remains on track with southwest
onshore flow continuing to push showers into the panhandle. Isolated
thunderstorms are still forming along the outer gulf coast but the
bulk of the activity has transitioned to near Prince of Wales
island. A weak shortwave rotated into the eastern gulf and it
brought more organized rain to the panhandle this evening. Total
rainfall amounts will remain on the lighter side tonight but
individual showers have, and will continue to produce, brief
heavier rain.
In the far northern panhandle, snow showers will still move
through the area overnight, with accumulations lessening into
Saturday. Around 3 inches are expected at higher elevations, and
periods of blowing snow will be possible with gusty winds
diminishing through the night.
.SHORT TERM.../Saturday and Saturday Night/...Precipitation
continues its downward trend through the day on Saturday, with
showers becoming less numerous by Saturday night, with a respite
from the recent rounds of precipitation in sight for Sunday.
Aloft, the steering flow is finally shifting, with the rex block
over the interior of the state falling apart as the high pressure
to the north weakens, opening the way for the broad area of
troughing over the Gulf to be ejected eastward through Sunday and
Monday.
On Saturday, this will materialize in the lower levels as a
weakening low diving into the central Gulf. The low`s positioning
will ensure that the bulk of the shower activity stays offshore,
orbiting around the low, as onshore flow concurrently diminishes.
By Saturday night, PoPs will have dropped significantly across the
northern half of the panhandle as a result, although higher
chances of precip may linger for the far southern areas as a weak
shortwave sweeps in. Most areas near sea level will still see
precipitation fall as rain early on, though chances of snow mixing
in will rapidly increase in areas near sea level through the day.
Otherwise, snow is expected for mountain tops, with some
accumulation likely as well along the Klondike and Haines
Highways.
Temperatures will be on a general downward trend by Saturday
night as cold air advection from the western part of the state is
swept around the southern flank of the low and moves into the
panhandle. Winds will generally remain on the lower side, with 5
to 10 kt for many of the inner channels, and 15 to 20 kt for much
of the outer coastal waters. The main changes made to the forecast
were a downward trend in temperatures for some locations Saturday
night, along with an earlier changeover to mixed precip for some
locations, and lower wind speeds by lat Saturday in the inner
channels as the pressure gradient goes increasingly parallel.
.LONG TERM...For the start of the long term, current forecast
guidance looks similar to yesterday with a low persisting in the
northern Gulf before weakening.
Beyond that, high pressure is expected to build over the Interior
and into the Yukon. Beyond this part of the forecast is where the
uncertainty ramps up.
With this high pressure setting up, colder air would be possible to
slip to the south. Current forecast guidance keeps most of this
colder air in the Yukon and away from the Coast Mountains.
GEFS and EURO ensemble guidance continues to still show great
disagreement, especially with the placement of the high as it
develops. The GEFS is the most aggressive in driving the high
pressure south, which would bring increase outflow and therefore,
sunny and cold weather. The EURO ENS is much more reserved and
keeps the high farther north, which creates a weaker outflow and
would allow for continued cloudy and rain-showery weather.
With the continued disagreement, the forecast is trending towards
the warmer and wetter solution. This will need to be watched
through the weekend for any changes.
&&
.AVIATION...Earlier this evening, isolated thunderstorms were the
big weather concern. As the evening went, the lightning strikes
slowly moved to the south and now, the west side of Prince of
Wales island is where the occasional lightning strike pops up. But
overall, shower activity will continue and can`t rule out
continued thunder tonight. So, low-end VFR to MVFR for the
overnight with improving weather for Saturday.
Still seeing some gusty winds around the area late this evening.
These gusty winds will continue tonight but winds will decreasing
late tonight with much calmer winds for Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Outside Waters: A broad swath of southwesterly fresh to strong
winds (17 to 27 kts) have persisted in the central gulf through
the day, and will steadily diminish overnight. 15 to 20 ft wave
heights with 15 ft of southwesterly swell at a 15 second period
will follow through the central gulf before quickly diminishing
below 15 ft into Saturday. Onshore flow continues to direct
showers into the panhandle with the occasional lightning strike
along the outer coastal mountains. The diminishing trend in the
winds continues through Saturday, alongside wave heights
decreasing to 8 to 12 ft by Saturday night.
Inside Waters: Showers continue moving through the panhandle with
southwesterly onshore flow directing winds up through the
channels. Fresh to strong southerly breezes (17 to 27 kts) in N/S
facing channels will be diminishing through Friday night, becoming
light to gentle breezes (4 to 10 kts) by Saturday night. Near
gale force gusts (28 to 33 kts) will persist overnight before
decreasing through Saturday, with potential for isolated gusts up
to low end gale force Friday night in Northern Lynn Canal and
Stephens Passage. 2 to 4 ft wave heights are expected for the
inner channels, with 10 to 15 ft wave heights for channel
entrances decreasing to below 10 ft by Saturday. There is a chance
for isolated thunderstorms to push into the southern channels
through Friday night.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-031-036-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...GJS
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...GJS
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...ZTK
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