467
FXAK68 PAFC 161457
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
557 AM AKST Sun Nov 16 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Tuesday)...
A pattern change is under way for Southcentral Alaska as we
transition from the generally cold, dry regime we`ve experienced for
the last week to one that features much more active, wetter/snowier,
and warmer weather.
First off, radar imagery shows precipitation lifting north from the
north-central Gulf of Alaska through the central and eastern
Chugach. Observations and webcams note snow (some rain in Cordova)
from about Valdez/Richardson Highway east, including up through
Thompson Pass, Edgerton Highway, Chisana and the Nabesna Rd, to the
Tok-Cutoff Highway. The snow winner thus far has been the RAWS site
at Tebay Lake which shows 5 inches of new snow depth. We don`t get
many reports in the eastern half of the Copper River Basin, so if
you`re reading this and located in any of those areas, we`d love to
hear how much snow you`ve received with this overnight system. Snow
in these parts will be coming to an end this morning as this system
shoves east.
As of 5am, latest surface analysis and satellite imagery shows a
rather strong 968mb (-and deepening) low is currently located near
Unimak Island and lifting north into the Bering. The attendant front
to this low is quickly pushing east across the AK Peninsula and
will soon be approaching and moving through Kodiak Island. As it
reaches the Kenai Peninsula today, cold air in place will allow
much of any precipitation to fall as snow, with the bulk of
precipitation on the windward (Gulf-facing) side of the Peninsula.
Still, a quick burst of snow may drop a quick half inch to around
of inch of snow for the western Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage on
north through the Mat-Su Valley later this afternoon. Otherwise,
expect north of a inch of snow for the Seward Highway along the
eastern Kenai, and a few inches possible for Portage and Whittier.
Heading into tonight into Monday, confidence has increased in a
solution much more favorable for snow for much of the area. Snow-
lovers rejoice. A triple point low along the front should move south
of the Kenai Peninsula and move into the Prince William Sound Monday
morning. Snow, potentially heavy at times, will overspread the
eastern side of the Peninsula with onshore flow. Relatively warm
onshore flow may yield a rain/snow mix at locations near sea-level
such as Whittier and those along Turnagain Arm. The deformation-like
band on the northwest side of the low will swiftly move across
the western Kenai Monday morning and then into Anchorage and the
Mat-Su Valley through the day. Heavy snow for a few hours is a
real possibility with this band. 2-6 inches is most likely for
many of these locations, including for Anchorage. Precipitation
will taper off Monday evening, but may linger into the night for
the central/eastern Chugach with onshore/upsloping flow.
Model agreement and thus confidence in forecast detail decreases
significantly on Tuesday. Another shortwave trough embedded within
deep southwest flow aloft should carry another surface low into the
Gulf of Alaska from the North Pacific. Models are beginning to place
this low into the north-central Gulf, which would bring another
round of snow (potentially low-elevation rain) to some areas.
Difficult/impossible to say where exactly, but another inch or two
may be in store for the western Kenai or even Anchorage and the Mat-
Su on Tuesday. Stay tuned for this one.
-Brown
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 to 3)...
A very active pattern continues in Southwest Alaska as a strong
North Pacific low moves into the East Bering. Powerful, gusty
winds have impacted the Alaska Peninsula with Cold Bay seeing
gusts to over 80 mph. A High Wind Warning has been issued in this
region due to the strong winds. Winds are expected to decrease as
the low moves northward.
As the low slowly makes its way north, it will bring gusty winds
and precipitation to the coastal regions of the Southwest
mainland. This precipitation will initially be in the form of
snowfall. However, the low will bring up warmer air from the
south, warming aloft temperatures faster than surface
temperatures. As a result, snowfall will begin transitioning to a
snow/freezing rain mix first in Bristol Bay. King Salmon and
communities around will see freezing rain begin this morning which
will continue until the early afternoon when surface temperatures
rise above freezing. The next area to receive a bout of freezing
rain will be Dillingham, which will see a freezing rain/snow mix
by Sunday afternoon. Surface temperatures will warm above freezing
by Sunday evening. The Kuskokwim Delta will see periods of
snowfall and gusty winds. Because the coast will have higher wind
speeds, visibility reducing blowing snow is likely. Due to this
threat, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued which lasts
until 3 AM Monday. As temperatures rise in the Kuskokwim Delta,
blowing snow will improve, but snowfall will begin to transition
to a rain/freezing rain mix which will last for a few hours early
Monday morning.
Once the low moves northward, winds will shift southerly by late
Monday morning. These southerly winds will still be gusty along
the coast, allowing for a chance for minor coastal flooding in the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast. However, the presence of shore fast ice
and a lower tide cycle will further reduce chances of this outcome
occurring. Precipitation will continue on Monday, but
temperatures aloft will cool below freezing, so freezing rain
chances will drop off. Wind and precipitation continues Tuesday as
the pattern remains active. By Wednesday, a frontal system pushes
into the mainland, bringing a swath of gusty southerly to south
southeasterly winds and precipitation. There may be some minor
coastal flooding concerns due to the duration of south
southeasterly winds into the Kuskokwim Coast. Due to warmer
temperatures, most precipitation will be rainfall with a rain/snow
mix in the Kuskokwim Delta. After this point, the pattern becomes
very uncertain will more lows on their way.
-JAR
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...
By early next week, a broad upper level trough establishes itself
over the Bering Sea with several shortwaves rotating around the
base of the trough, sustaining the active storm track in the
North Pacific and Gulf. The long term begins as a front tracks
across the eastern Bering into Southwest Alaska, bringing small
craft to gale strength winds along the Alaska Peninsula and
Bristol Bay coast. As the front reaches the Southwest coast and
moves inland Wednesday into Thursday, southerly flow likely allows
precipitation to fall as rain along the coast, with snow
transitioning to rain for interior locations in the Kuskokwim
Delta and Bristol Bay.
This will be quickly followed by a stronger low lifting out of
the North Pacific towards the AKPen by Thursday morning, at which
this point deterministic model guidance begins to diverge. The GFS
and Canadian models show a stronger, potentially storm force low
tracking across the AKPen towards the Kuskokwim Delta before
pivoting east into the Gulf, while the ECMWF tracks a weaker low
straight into the Gulf from the North Pacific. Although details in
the overall strength and exact storm track will become more clear
in the coming days, strong southerly flow and plentiful moisture
can be expected regardless of which solution ultimately plays out.
Moderate rainfall and snow at higher elevations is expected along
the AKPen and Kodiak Island for Thursday, with heavy rain at sea
level and heavy mountain snow directed at the northern Gulf coast
Thursday into Friday. As the low lingers in the Gulf, showery and
generally unsettled weather continues in the Gulf and along the
Gulf coast through the weekend, while the deep southerly flow
associated with this system will result in temperatures trending
warmer across southern Alaska.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light northeast wind will generally
persist through at least the first half of the TAF period.
Clearing skies early this morning may allow for some fog
development, but as of 545am, no observations note development
thus far. Higher clouds will begin to overspread the area later
today as a front approaches. A quick bout of snow is likely this
evening with the initial wave with a period of MVFR CIGs/VIS
possible. Conditions improve a bit before deteriorating once again
tonight as snow becomes likely by Monday morning.
&&
$$
273
FXAK69 PAFG 161527
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
627 AM AKST Sun Nov 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A broad area of low pressure is going to be moving into the Bering
Sea today through tomorrow, which will support widespread gusty
winds, snow, and warming temperatures spreading into the Mainland
from the southwest. An overlap of gusty winds and snow could lead to
significant reductions in visibility at times. Winter Storm Watches
are now in effect starting later today and into tomorrow for the
Yukon Delta, Norton Sound Coastline, and Seward Peninsula for gusty
winds and snow/blowing snow. A continued active weather pattern is
expected to persist in the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska through
midweek, as a series of low pressure systems and fronts moving into
Alaska help to reinforce warmer temperatures, winds, and snow
chances to finish out the week.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Cold and mostly dry conditions will continue across the
Interior through today, with areas of low stratus and patchy
fog, in addition to isolated snow showers tonight into Sunday
primarily out towards Tok, Northway, and Eagle. This will begin
to transition to a warmer pattern, with an increase of the
chance of snow going into the early part of the week.
- Highs in the single digits above and below zero with lows in
the single and double digits below zero. Coldest locations
mostly out across the Yukon Flats will see highs in the double
digits below zero with overnight lows bottoming out around 20 to
30 below.
- Southerly winds are expected to ramp up through Windy Pass and
Isabel Pass later tonight through tomorrow, with gusts up to 50
mph expected. Further details can be found with the Wind
Advisory in effect for this area.
- Temperatures trend warmer tomorrow into Tuesday as isolated to
scattered snow chances return across much of the Interior.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- A much more active weather pattern ramps up beginning Monday
and continuing through much of next week as a series of storms
in the Bering Sea lift north along the West Coast with gusty
winds, widespread snow, and warmer temperatures.
- Winter Storm Watches are now in effect starting later today
through tomorrow for the Yukon Delta, Norton Sound Coastline,
and Seward Peninsula for gusty winds and snow. Total snow
accumulations around 2-5", locally higher around 3-8" across the
southern Seward Peninsula.
- Strongest winds today and tomorrow will remain offshore and at
St. Lawrence Island, where gusts up to 50 mph are possible.
Winds elsewhere along the West Coast will see gusts peak around
20-40 mph.
- Temperatures see a steady warming trend throughout the early
part of the week as a moist and warmer airmass moves in with
southerly flow.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Cold and mostly dry conditions will continue across the Brooks
Range and North Slope through today, with isolated snow showers
and areas of fog along the Arctic Coast.
- E/NE winds prevail along the Arctic Coast into early next week,
strongest further west out towards Point Hope and the Lisburne
Peninsula where gusts up to 45 mph will continue.
- Highs in the single and double digits below zero in the Brooks
Range and Arctic Plains to single digits above and below zero
along the coast. Lows in the single and double digits below
zero, with coldest areas bottoming out at around 20 to 30 below.
- Temperatures continue to trend warmer going into Tuesday as
isolated to scattered snow chances return.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Tonight through Tuesday.
At around 5 AM, GOES-19 satellite imagery, as well as pressure
fields, puts the position of the triple-point associated with the
broad area of low pressure moving into the Bering Sea to be located
just north of Unimak Island within the Aleutian Island chain, and is
expected to intensity as it continues to progress northward
throughout the day. This will allow for a tightening of the gradient
to produce some very strong and gusty winds for the Yukon Delta,
Norton Sound Coastline, and Seward Peninsula. When analyzing this
with deterministic models, all of the models are tightening up with
the propagation of this low, although the timing is a little quicker
with the ECMWF, which may result in a quicker timing with the
arrival of the associated frontal boundary, and thus a quicker onset
with the winds and snow bands moving in if it verifies (this appears
to have had a slightly better handle on the movement and position of
the low). The low appears to become stalled out to the southwest of
Nunivak Island by later this evening, before transitioning up
towards the Bering Strait and eventually over the Seward Peninsula.
As it does, expect snow to expand across the West Coast, and winds
to increase out of the east/northeast, along with blowing snow and
reduced visibilities at times.
This low is expected to deepen to around 960mb before it stalls
out (about a -10mb drop). As the pressure gradient continues to
weaken going into tomorrow morning, winds will also abate. Snow
will continue to spread across the Norton Sound into the Seward
Peninsula, with the southern portion getting the most snowfall
expected of generally between 3 to 5 inches through tomorrow, and
locally up to 8 inches for some locations. Due to the warmer air
advection, there could also be a few locations for the Southwest
Coast of the Y-K Delta which may have a mix of rain and snow.
There is also lower confidence that a few areas could experience
blizzard conditions at times with significantly reduced
visibilities in blowing snow. Further details of this are provided
in the Winter Storm Watch. There are still going to be some
stronger winds right along the northwest coast of the Lisburne
Peninsula, with locations such as Utqiagvik (Barrow) experiencing
strong and gusty winds, with blowing snow (and even some blowing
sea spray) being possible at time for these coastal sites. These
winds will begin to shift more southward towards the Bering Strait
as the area of low pressure approaches the region.
Behind that, a weaker area of low pressure will follow in behind it,
which will also help to reinforce southerly flow and expand more
moisture up across the Brooks Range and help to expand more moisture
into the North Slope. Subsequently, there will be another area of
low pressure moving up into the Gulf of Alaska, which will also help
to increase southeasterly flow across the Upper Tanana Valley and
eventually into the eastern Interior. The tightening of the pressure
gradient, and increased gap flow through Isabel Pass will likely
cause some gusts to approach (and may exceed) 55 mph. For this
reason, there is a Wind Advisory in effect for this area for later
tonight through tomorrow afternoon. This will also help to break up
the inversion and allow temperatures to become more modified and
warmer, with an increased chance of snow for more of the eastern
portion of the mainland going into Tuesday.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Tuesday night through next Saturday.
Overall ensembles are remain in relatively good agreement with the
broad area of low pressure over the Bering Sea propagating northward
into the Chukchi Sea through the early part of the week, and then
expanding over into the Beaufort Sea, with the eastern half of the
state becoming more influenced by low pressure. This is going to
help to do two things for the Mainland; it will help to warm
temperatures as we see an increase of more cloud coverage (and
essentially lose more of the radiational cooling), and it will also
allow for an increase in moisture, with a more favorable chance of
snow for some locations. As this low also ejects up through the
Strait, the tightening of the gradient will allow for stronger winds
to remain more confined to the West Coast and higher elevations of
the Brooks Range and Alaska Range. For these locations, these gusty
winds and snow could lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow,
potentially significantly reducing visibility at times with
localized blizzard conditions.
The overall energy from this low is going to move into the Gulf of
Alaska towards the end of the week, and the southerly flow will keep
the relatively warmer airmass in place, which could lead to some of
the coastal areas along the Southwest Coast of the Y-K Delta to get
a mix of rain and snow ahead of the low moving into the Gulf, but
then transition back to snow with colder air advection on the
backside of this system. The moisture from the south is going to
expand across much of the Mainland towards the end of the week, and
then going into the following weekend, there are beginning signals
which indicate that a ridge could be building back in towards the
end of next weekend.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ820-821.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ822-823-827.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ824>826.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805>807-811-812-816-852-854-
856>858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
Gale Warning for PKZ806.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-853-858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
Gale Warning for PKZ811-816-851-854-857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817.
Gale Warning for PKZ817-850.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850-853.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
Gale Warning for PKZ856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&
$$
Stewey
212
FXAK67 PAJK 161620 CCA
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
602 AM AKST Sun Nov 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Fog has developed early Sunday morning with visibilities below
1 SM in some areas across the eastern panhandle.
- A break occurs Sunday as ridging builds over the Gulf of Alaska.
This allows for light winds and low precipitation chances.
- Next front incoming from the west on Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...As cloud cover has diminished, and winds continue
to decrease, fog development has begun to spread across parts of
the panhandle as of early Sunday morning. We have been able to
watch this fog develop via satellite imagery. Currently, the fog
is mainly over the eastern portions of the panhandle with the
thickest fog near Petersburg and Wrangell. This fog is likely to
remain into late Sunday morning before dissipating.
Otherwise, winds across the panhandle remain light throughout the
day with little to no precipitation anticipated. The far northern
panhandle is the most likely to see precipitation today due to a
trough that remains over the northern gulf. Although, any
precipitation that falls will remain light. All other areas of the
panhandle can expect to remain dry with times of partly cloudy to
clear skies due to a ridge moving over the central to southern
gulf. This benign pattern changes late Sunday into Monday as a
front moves across the gulf eventually pushing over the panhandle.
At that time overcast skies and widespread precipitation returns.
.LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/... The next front moves
into the outer coastline late Monday morning, pushing eastward
over the rest of the panhandle by the afternoon and evening. This
will be followed by more onshore flow lasting through midweek as
upper level shortwaves push through and allow for waves to
continue impacting the panhandle. This overall onshore flow from
the S to SW will bring up temperatures and snow levels across the
panhandle, with 850 mb temperatures increasing to around -4 to -5
degrees C over the northern panhandle from this warmer air
impacting the area. Temperatures will drop overnight to below
freezing in the northern panhandle as well as some lower snow
levels over Haines northward, allowing for some snow overnight and
mixing in the morning for Icy Strait corridor northward as showers
still impact the northern panhandle before the front begins to
push in. This will soon change to rain Monday as the front advects
in warmer air to the not exceptionally cold airmass over the
northern panhandle, as the largely easterly winds and lingering
onshore showers will not really be ideal for getting colder air
into much of the northern panhandle overnight Sunday into Monday.
The only areas seeing snow during the frontal passage Monday will
be the higher elevation areas including the Klondike and Haines
Highways, with snow amounts for Monday being 3 to 5 inches near
the border. The rest of the northern panhandle will see up to 1
inch of accumulation from the light snow showers in the morning,
before transitioning to rain when the front moves in. The outer
coast around Yakutat is expected to get around 1 inch in 24 hours
of rainfall, with between 0.25 and 0.5 inches for the rest of the
panhandle.
Following shortly behind this front will be another quick
shortwave moving through, continuing to bring precipitation
across the panhandle Tuesday morning and lingering longest over
the northern panhandle into Tuesday night. Overall the QPF
expected for Tuesday will be even less for the panhandle, with
less than 0.5 inches for the panhandle as this wave moves quickly
through, and another 1 to 2 inches of snow for the highways.
After this is where models begin to show some lack of agreement,
with the low moving into the southern Gulf Wednesday. The clusters
are not much in agreement, as the GEFS appears to have the low
moving northward closer to the panhandle while the EPS has it
moving more south of Haida Gwaii. So far leaning towards the
grand ensemble`s solution of having the low in between these two
solutions, still allowing for a front to move across the panhandle
but largely impacting the southern half of the panhandle. The QPF
amounts are still expected to be highest across the southern
panhandle Wednesday, with between 0.75 and 1.25 inches in 24
hours expected largely along the southern coastline around PoW,
and decreasing to less than 0.5 inches in the northern half of the
panhandle. This is still expected to be largely rain, with the
highways seeing another 1 to 3 inches of snow in 24 hours
Wednesday. The QPF amounts across the northern panhandle and even
the winds along the coast and inner channels may increase if the
the low tracks more northward, however this solution is only being
shown by 20% of the ensemble clusters, making it more likely to
see the low staying further to the south.
&&
.AVIATION.../Until 12Z Monday/...Through mid-morning, caused by
overnight clearing skies & light winds, some areas, primarily in the
east-central panhandle, are experiencing patchy radiation FG,
temporarily bringing down conditions, which will dissipate via solar
heating. Beyond that timeframe, as far as CIGs & VISs are concerned,
expect mainly VFR flight conditions until late tonight when some
isolated to scattered snow showers look to move in for areas north
of Icy Strait, dipping conditions down into the MVFR category,
there. SFC winds will remain on the lighter side, & LLWS will remain
benign through the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Inside Channels: Winds across the inner channels have greatly
diminished and will remain light throughout the day Sunday. These
lighter winds have allowed for areas of fog this morning mainly over
the eastern panhandle from Clarence Strait into the Icy Strait
Corridor. This fog is likely to last into late morning before
diminishing. Otherwise, winds will remain light throughout the day
with the strongest winds over Clarence Strait, up to 15 kts, for a
short time this afternoon to evening. Tonight, a front begins to
push through the gulf, reaching the panhandle by Monday morning. At
this time, winds over the inside waters will begin to increase to
moderate to fresh breezes (10 to 20 kts).
Gulf Waters: This morning, seas remain slightly elevated, around 10
to 12 ft at 12 to 13 seconds from the southwest, across the gulf.
This is due to a low pressure system that continues to move south
ahead of a short lived ridge that moves over the central and
southern gulf. As this ridge moves over the gulf, winds become
westerly and decrease to at or below 15 kts. These conditions are
short lived as a front begins to move over the gulf Sunday evening.
With this front, winds will become south/southeasterly and increase
to strong breezes and near gales (23 to 33 kts). Along with
increasings winds, seas with this front build to 10 to 13 ft across
the panhandle. These seas begin to build Monday morning over the
western gulf and reach the eastern gulf coast by Monday afternoon.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...EAB
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