442
FXAK68 PAFC 110132
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
432 PM AKST Mon Nov 10 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A ridge of high pressure continues to promote clearer conditions
across Southcentral Alaska, but an exiting low pressure system in
the northeastern Gulf of Alaska is spreading some high level
clouds over the area. The relation between these clouds, and
temperature as seen cooler temperatures overnight, with the lower
level of the atmosphere clear to cool more rapidly than if there
were an insulating low level cloud deck. Overnight low
temperatures have been steadily declining and will continue to do
so for many locations across Southcentral as the clearer skies
remain. Colder air is draining out of Southcentral basins through
gaps such as Resurrection Bay, Passage Canal, and Valdez Arm,
with gusts near 40 mph this evening and Tuesday morning. Thompson
Pass and the Copper River Delta may similarly gusty winds through
Tuesday afternoon with colder air pulled down out of the Copper
River Basin. Gusty winds through these favored gaps and passes
will diminish gradually through Tuesday into Tuesday evening.
The trough in the northern Gulf may bring some snow showers to
Cordova by early Wednesday. Otherwise, expect generally clear and
cold conditions, with some high clouds and areas of fog, for much
of Southcentral by midweek.
-CL
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...
Currently, a small low is moving into the Kuskokwim Delta region.
As a result, scattered snow showers are moving through the region.
Snow or rain/snow showers and low stratus/fog are also present in
the Bristol Bay region. The low will slowly move through the
Kuskokwim Delta through the night before dissipating Tuesday
afternoon. Steadier snow is expected Monday night/Tuesday morning
before this happens. Meanwhile, a frontal system is pushing into
the Bering from the west. A long, vertical swath of gale force
winds and precipitation will accompany the front as it moves over
the Western Aleutians Tuesday morning. The front will move
eastward toward the mainland through the course of the day on
Tuesday, arriving at the Pribilof Islands and the Eastern
Aleutians by Tuesday night/Early Wednesday morning. The front will
push onshore by Wednesday afternoon, bringing elevated winds and
initially snowfall. Higher winds near the Kuskokwim Coast and
Nunivak Island may lead to areas of blowing snow. Warmer air will
accompany this front, so precipitation will likely transition to
rain/snow, especially over Bristol Bay.
By Thursday morning, the low will dissipate inland. after this
point, a ridge builds into the Bering, limiting winds and
decreasing precipitation chances. As Thursday progresses, a low
south of the Alaska Peninsula will allow for some increased wind
speeds. Also, a trough will arrive behind the ridge in the Western
Aleutians allowing for higher wind speeds and precipitation.
Looking quite a bit forward to the weekend has a strong North
Pacific low moving into the Bering. This will likely bring gusty
winds and moderate to heavy precipitation somewhere in the
Aleutians. Uncertainty is high at this time with its track,
strength, and timing, so continue to monitor the forecast for
updates as the evolution of the low becomes more clear.
-JAR
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...
A vertically stacked low over the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula for the second half of this week slides east into the
Gulf of Alaska by Saturday. Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds
ranging from small craft to gales along with diminishing
precipitation are anticipated on the back side of this system for
the Eastern Aleutians and AKPen. For Southwest and much of
Southcentral Alaska, seasonably cool temperatures and relatively
quiet weather is expected Friday into Saturday, with the greatest
chances for periods of precipitation remaining mainly along the
northern Gulf coast and Kodiak Island as the low tracks towards
Southeast Alaska.
The bigger story continues to be a much stronger storm lifting
out of the North Pacific towards the Central Aleutians this
weekend. Deterministic models and ensemble guidance are loosely in
agreement for a sub 950 mb low reaching the Aleutian Chain
sometime Saturday into Sunday as it merges with an upper level
trough in the western Bering Sea. Confidence is currently high
that as the storm arrives, the Aleutian Chain is likely to see
moderate to heavy rain and sustained high end gale to storm force
winds through the weekend. As we head further into the weekend and
into early next week, there remains a high degree of uncertainty
with regards to the track and intensification of the low as it
tracks across the Aleutians and into the southern Bering as model
spread significantly increases by this point. While most guidance
generally favors the storm remaining over the southern Bering, the
GFS continues to depict the storm deepening to a sub 940 mb low
and tracking north into the central Bering. If this scenario were
to play out, impacts such as heavy rain, a prolonged period of
strong south-southeasterly winds, and high seas would affect much
more of the region including the Pribilof Islands as well as the
Kuskokwim Delta coast through the early part of next week. The
impacts from this storm will be highly dependent on the storm
track, and we continue to closely monitor and update the forecast
as confidence in the strength and track of the storm increases.
-JH
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR winds and ceilings to persist through the TAF Period.
With the departure of an area of low pressure over the Gulf, high
pressure will settle over Southcentral Alaska. This should allow
for drier conditions, accompanied by light winds and VFR ceilings.
-BL
&&
$$
853
FXAK69 PAFG 111200
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
300 AM AKST Tue Nov 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Persistence continues to hold strong with this forecast with
little change to the overall pattern. A low spinning off the YK-
Delta coast will continue to provide them with chances for snow
showers throughout today. This band of energy will become
elongated as a frontal system works its way NE from the southern
Bering. The front is not expected to move far NE from the YK-Delta
as low pressure will begin building over the Interior Wednesday
night. This will continue to provide the North Slope with cold
temperatures and snow showers. This will also keep some low lying
clouds in areas across the Interior. Areas that remain free of
clouds will continue to see a drop in temperatures over the next
several days.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Clearing skies and predominantly dry conditions are expected
for the week ahead.
- Highs will be in the low single digits, with some areas staying
below 0 degrees.
- Colder temperatures continue to build in mid to late week as
highs drop to the single digits above and below zero with
widespread lows below zero. Coldest spots could see lows drop
into the double digits below zero.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Snow chances will continue across the YK-Delta, St. Lawrence
Island, and Norton Sound coastal areas through the morning hours.
- Conditions remain dry across the Western Interior with clearer
skies supporting areas of dense fog/low stratus and cold
temperatures.
- Dry conditions return later today along the West Coast outside
of isolated snow showers further south, ahead of another front
building into Southwest Alaska Wednesday into Thursday with
another round of snow and breezy winds.
- Highs in the teens and 20s with lows in the single digits above
and below zero and teens. Warmer conditions on St. Lawrence
Island with highs in the 20s and 30s with lows in the 20s.
Temperatures trend colder overall midweek.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Light snow continues across the North Slope and Eastern Brooks
Range today throughout the day. Additional accumulations through
up to around 1-3", locally higher across the NE Arctic Coast.
- Northeast winds prevail along the Arctic Coast through midweek,
strongest further west from Utqiagvik to Point Hope.
- Dry conditions return region wide tomorrow night into Wednesday
as a colder and drier airmass settles in overhead.
- Highs early this week in the teens and 20s across the Arctic
Coast and single digits and teens for the Arctic Plains and
Brooks Range, with lows in the single digits and teens to below
zero further inland.
- Colder temperatures continue to build in mid to late week as
highs drop mostly to the single digits above and below zero with
widespread lows below zero. Coldest spots could see double
digit below zero lows.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The broad troughing that has been dominating across the state is
looking to move out and set up a more benign pattern with
scattered areas of energy and less pronounced systems. Looking
over the West Coast, a low continues to spin just off of the coast
of the YK-Delta. Which will continue to provide snow showers for
the YK-Delta through throughout the day. As the day progresses,
this energy will become elongated in a NW-SE orientation as a
ridge pushes east. A shortwave feature will begin to move NE from
the Aleutians, behind the newly developed elongated band. This
shortwave will bring the next front to the YK-Delta coast by
Wednesday afternoon. The front will not be able to move across
the Interior as low pressure will begin to build up and move W/SW
from the eastern Brooks Range. This low that will move across the
Interior will set up E-NE flow across the Brooks Range, including
scattered snow showers and colder temperatures. This will also
provide scattered low lying clouds across the Interior at times,
which may limit some of the cooler temperatures from developing.
Some light snow showers may be possible along the Dalton Highway
Summits and northwest Interior Wednesday night into Thursday.
To add on, an Arctic high will continue to build up and move SW
towards Siberia mid week. This, along with the low over the
Interior, will result in a gradual increase in the east winds over
the NW Arctic coast beginning Wednesday afternoon. The strongest
winds are expected to develop over the Lisburne Peninsula by
Thursday afternoon.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Global models continue to show good agreement at the start of the
extended with a broad area of low pressure across the state.
Models continue to show the likelihood for a coastal system to
move across the Aleutians and into the southern Bering Sea by the
end of the weekend. However, the Canadian brings this system
across the Aleutians almost 18 hours ahead of the other global
models. Comparing to previous runs, all of the models are still
having trouble getting a handle on the exact positioning. This low
will bring the next best chance for snow showers across the
Central Interior Sunday into Monday.
Looking farther north over the North Slope, another low will be
moving E to W across the Arctic coast around the end of the
weekend. The EC stands out amongst others as the faster solution.
These two lows will create gusty easterly winds across the West
Coast and NW Arctic Coast, beginning Sunday afternoon, with
potential gusts up to 45 mph.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ811.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812-813-858-859.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ857.
&&
$$
Twombly
605
FXAK67 PAJK 110639 AAA
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
939 PM AKST Mon Nov 10 2025
.Evening Update and 06z Aviation Update...
As of 930pm AK time. A front continues to push northeast across
the Panhandle Monday night, bringing gusty winds and moderate-to-
heavy showers, with some lightning reported along Baranof Island.
Snow is becoming more apparent for Haines Highway, impacting the
upper portion of the road system west of the Chilkat River bridge.
Earlier this evening a Winter Weather Advisory was issued for an
additional 4 to 6 inches of snow through 12 pm Tuesday, with the
most anticipated near the border. The heaviest showers are
currently ongoing and will weaken through Tuesday afternoon. A
Winter Weather Advisory is also out for the Klondike Highway near
White Pass, with 6 to 11 inches of snow expected by Tuesday
afternoon.
Touching on winds/seas a southerly surge is currently moving
across the inner channels, with Point Couverden, Five Finger, and
Grave Point reporting southerly gusts of 35 to 40 knots. These
elevated southerly winds will continue to push north tonight
through Lynn Canal, bringing breezy conditions into Tuesday
afternoon. Winds will subside by Wednesday morning bringing a
short break in more active weather.
For mariners planning on the cross sound PWS transit, coastal
buoys are reporting southerly seas 13 to 16 ft near 10 seconds,
with satellite derived winds highlighting gale force conditions
for most of the coast. A healthy fetch of SW gales is aimed at
Chichagof/Baranof, with seas expected to increase to 20 to 25 ft
by Tuesday morning. For the Fairweather grounds seas near 18 ft
are forecasted by early Tuesday. Seas diminish Tuesday night,
likely below 10 ft by early Wednesday morning.
&&
AVIATION.../Until 06Z Wednesday/...
Front continues to push across the panhandle this evening as a
low in the northern Gulf slowly meanders towards Yakutat. As this
front pushes inland, seeing MVFR to VFR flight conditions with
CIGS AoB 6000ft with intermittent IFR visibilities as low as 2sm
up to 4sm within the heavier showers.
Through the rest of tonight and into Tuesday morning, predominate
MVFR flight conditions prevail by 12z along and north of the Icy
Strait corridor with CIGS AoB 3500ft and intermittent IFR visbys
within heavier showers, including Juneau. Not expecting much
improvement in flight conditions for Tuesday, especially across
the N Panhandle as low finally pushes into the NE Gulf coast and
dissipates. On-shore flow should keep showers with MVFR to low VFR
flight conditions persisting into Thursday afternoon across the
panhandle. With the bulk of the system in the N Gulf, expecting
better conditions across the S Panhandle TAF sites through
Tuesday, with higher forecast confidence of longer periods of VFR
flight conditions in the afternoon.
Some LLWS concerns through early Tuesday afternoon with the
aforementioned low tracking inland. Broad SW-ly flow aloft 25 to
35kts along and north of a line from Sitka over to Petersburg,
strengthening moving towards Gustavus. With the low pushing
between Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape, Yakutat could see NE-ly LLWS
around 20 to 30kts with a easterly surface wind through early
Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 354 PM AKST Mon Nov 10 2025...
SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Diminishing gale force low brings more rounds of rain and
elevated winds to the panhandle Monday night into Tuesday
- More snow for upper elevation highways through Tuesday afternoon
- Weak outflow begins midweek bringing cooler temperatures across
the panhandle Wednesday and Thursday night.
SHORT TERM...
A weakening gale force low is slowly making its way into the
northern gulf Monday afternoon after pushing a gale force front
into the panhandle earlier in the day. With continued weak
steering flow aloft, this feature will gradually move inland along
the northeast gulf coast through the night with broad weak
troughing lingering over the northern gulf coast Tuesday.
Increasing winds will accompany the circulation as it lifts
inland, with both Haines and Skagway likely to see gusts up to 35
mph Monday night. Onshore flow will continue into Tuesday and
shower coverage will gradually diminish heading into midweek with
some fog potential for the southern panhandle Tuesday night into
Wednesday.
With the track of the low shifting slightly eastward from
previous forecasts, more moisture is expected to be pulled up Lynn
Canal into the far northern panhandle, and a winter weather
advisory is in effect for long duration snow accumulations of 7 -
12 inches for the Klondike Highway through Tuesday afternoon with
gusty winds Monday night. The Haines Highway is also expected to
receive snow during this time, though to a lesser extent due to
downsloping with the direction of flow aloft.
LONG TERM...
Cooler temperatures and drier conditions quickly develop after
Tuesday as a low pressure system moves to the south of the
panhandle. This will bring weak outflow and northerly winds across
the inner channels as a high develops over the Yukon at around
1010mb. The strongest winds are anticipated to be near Skagway and
across Lynn Canal. Currently, strong breezes to near gales of 20
to 30 kts are the most likely. This is mainly seen in similarities
in model pressure gradients, showing around a 3 mb difference
between Skagway and Juneau late Wednesday.
Along with stronger winds, we are going to see cooler
temperatures across most of the panhandle with overnight lows
getting below freezing across the panhandle Thursday night.
Specifically there is around a 40 to 60% chance of less than 30
degree temperatures over the southern panhandle Thursday into
Friday. The central and northern panhandle both have a medium to
high likelihood of low temperatures less than 25 degrees. These
temperatures are nothing atypical for this time of year, but it
would be the coldest most places have gotten so far this season.
Behind the week outflow, another system once again enters the
gulf Friday into the weekend. This once again increases winds
across the gulf and panhandle. As well, it sends moderate to heavy
precipitation across the panhandle. The main question with this
end of week system is what precipitation type will fall. With cold
air in place, we could see accumulating snow into the central
panhandle. We will continue to monitor these upcoming systems. The
colder the temperatures are leading up to the weekend system, the
more likely it is for precipitation to fall as snow into the Icy
Strait Corridor.
MARINE...
Outside Waters: A weakening gale force low continues to track
into the northern gulf, set to move inland later Monday night. The
primary front has moved through the outer coast with winds now
primarily out of the south across the eastern gulf. Seas behind
the front have increased to around 13-16 ft from Cape Spencer down
to the Dixon Entrance. Seas will continue to build as the low
center moves closer to shore bringing closer to 20-25 ft seas
Monday night into Tuesday from Cape Fairweather down to Cape
Decision. Near shore waters around Cape Edgecumbe will also see a
brief period of gale force winds on the southern side of the low
as it approaches the northeast coast.
Inside Waters: The next front has pushed into the inner channels
this afternoon, with winds increasing to strong breezes to near
gales. Strongest winds have been near Cape Fanshaw with gusts to
45 kt in the afternoon, as well as sustained gales in the upper
end of Clarence Strait. Behind the front, winds are expected to
remain between fresh to strong breezes as onshore flow persists
bringing continued showers to the area. Winds continue to diminish
heading into Tuesday as the gradient continues to weaken before
high pressure moves into the Gulf for the middle of the week.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until noon AKST Tuesday for AKZ318-319.
Strong Wind from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
AKZ318.
Strong Wind from 6 AM AKST Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon for
AKZ319.
Strong Wind from 3 AM to 6 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ322.
Strong Wind until 6 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ323.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ662-663.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-053-641>644-
651-652-661-664-671-672.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AP
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...STJ
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