260
FXAK68 PAFC 070225
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
525 PM AKST Thu Mar 6 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Thursday afternoon through Sunday afternoon)...
Through Sunday afternoon, generally expect unsettled weather
along the coast, with much quieter weather further inland.
Weatherwise, isolated to scattered showers linger this evening.
Then, by late tonight into early tomorrow morning, a low in the
Gulf pushes its front into Southcentral Alaska. The low will
linger in the Gulf through Saturday, then exit eastward as a front
and developing triple point low slide in from the Bering Sea.
Forecast confidence is moderate to high, with the lowest
confidence for marine-area forecasts with Friday`s low. No
impactful hazards are anticipated at this time.
Diving into the details... clear skies today have led to
temperatures climbing into the 40s this afternoon. Middleton
Island radar shows isolated to scattered showers continuing to
move in along the north Gulf coast, though the latest returns show
a shift from southwesterly to southeasterly steering flow as the
atmosphere responds to a low moving into the Gulf. This low has
been the main source of forecast uncertainty; model guidance
continues to show poor consistency and poor agreement regarding
its track, leading to lower forecast confidence regarding wind
direction/speed and precipitation amounts/timing. Have gone with
a more northerly low track for this forecast package, though the
forecast on land isn`t particularly sensitive to the low track
since the low itself remains offshore. Marine forecasts will be
much more sensitive to shifts in the low track, so mariners
should stay tuned to the forecast for tonight and tomorrow.
In addition to the low track, another aspect of uncertainty will
be with temperatures. Temperatures today were a bit higher than
forecast, thanks to the increasing daylight as we approach spring.
Temperatures through Saturday will likely be influenced most by
diurnal effects rather than air mass changes; this means that
confidence in surface temperatures forecast may be a bit lower as
these diurnal effects can be difficult for models to accurately
represent. Where this comes into play will be for precipitation
type forecasts along the coast, especially for Whittier.
Currently, our forecast calls for about 2 inches of snow in the
Whittier area Friday night into Saturday morning as temperatures
linger in the mid-30s. If temperatures are lower, there could be
greater snow accumulation. Overall, this likely won`t have a big
impact, but it might be something to note for snow-lovers keeping
a close eye on the forecast.
-Chen
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Thursday to Sunday)...
As of this afternoon, there are a couple of features to note in
the Southwest. First, what is left of the stalled low affecting
Nunivak Island and the YK Delta is centered west of Nunivak and is
sending scattered snow showers to the Bethel area, with flurries
also lingering along the coast. There is still some degree of
blowing snow happening over Nunivak Island, but that should wind
down as northerly winds somewhat relax as the low begins to drift
southward and weaken considerably this evening. We still have
quite the pressure gradient over the Pribilofs, which is
continuing blowing snow across the islands. Farther west, a ridge
of high pressure has situated itself across the Western Aleutians.
Going forward into midday Friday, guidance shows the
aforementioned low continuing its trek southward, bringing with it
a broad and colder airmass across the Bering and into the central
Aleutians, AK Pen, and coastal Southwest as the ridge out west is
pushed quickly eastward across the Central Aleutians. By this
time, blowing snow should come to an end for the Pribilof Islands
as the pressure gradient weakens. A gale-force low with widespread
storm force wind gusts and gales quickly chases out the ridge
into the Eastern Aleutians and AK Pen by Friday night, as the
low`s front steamrolls across the Central and Western Aleutians.
This setup becomes tricky as temperatures are cold enough to
initially support moderate to heavy snowfall and blowing snow,
which could warrant advisory products for the Central and Western
Aleutians. However, south of the triple point will be a sector of
relatively warm air of 40-45F, which will transition snow to rain
for these areas. Timing of the transition will be ironed out as
more guidance comes in, but as of now operational models show the
changeover hitting Adak late Friday afternoon, then quickly moving
eastward over Dutch Harbor by Saturday morning, and continuing
its march eastbound. As the whole system shifts eastward late
Saturday, blowing snow or blizzard conditions yet again look
likely for the Pribilofs. The hope is some of the strong
southeasterly flow will usher in some warmer air to limit pre-
frontal blowing snow potential, but blizzard conditions and a
period of heavy snowfall of 2-4" still look possible with winds in
the 50kt ballpark as precipitation moves in and the event
unfolds. We have above average confidence in impacts to the
Pribilof islands, which has prompted us to issue a Winter Storm
Watch from Friday night lasting until Saturday afternoon. Strong
southeast gales at the same time will stretch southward across the
Central and Eastern Aleutians.
By Sunday morning, the front, precipitation, and warm sector
reaches the AK Pen and Southwest coastline where we will similarly
see strong winds, moderate snowfall, and the snow changing to
rain from west to east. Some marginally colder air at the surface
and much colder air aloft attempts to wrap in the wake of this
frontal system, which could change lingering light precipitation
across the Aleutian chain back over to snow. Models do show
another round of gale force winds behind the front with strong
cold air advection across the southern Bering. Conditions for the
Pribilofs look to improve by this time frame as well. Apart from
that, the upper level and surface flow looks fairly zonal for the
rest of the short term.
-AM
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Monday through Thursday)...
An extensive upper level trough stretching from the Russian Far
East across the Bering continues its Eastward push over Interior
Alaska into Northern Canada through the forecast period. A low
center separates from this trough at the Alaska Peninsula and
moves across the Gulf of Alaska before exiting to the Southeast
for Wednesday. A weak ridge moving over the Aleutians flattens out
by Thursday. An ECMWF / GFS and Canadian blended cluster
continues to handle features consistently well through the period.
Greatest uncertainty rests with the smaller details supported by
shortwaves rotating through the pattern.
A well developed surface low and front over the Central Bering
weakens and dissipates as it approaches Western Alaska by Tuesday.
Widespread snow and gale force winds over the Bering subsides by
late Tuesday. Meanwhile a low that formed on the front near Kodiak
Island pushes snow over the inland areas of Southcentral Alaska,
the Alaska Peninsula into Southwest Alaska, and areas of rain
along the coastal zones in Southcentral and over the Gulf,
diminishing late Tuesday. A strong North Pacific low and front
bears down on the Western and Central Aleutians late Tuesday
through Thursday. Locally heavy rains and gale force winds move
over the Aleutians, diminishing Thursday.
- Kutz
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR will prevail through the TAF period in wake of a frontal
system. Winds will become northerly this evening, becoming gusty
overnight before abating on Friday.
&&
$$
210
FXAK69 PAFG 062141
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1241 PM AKST Thu Mar 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Snow is likely for portions of the Interior today and tomorrow. It
has already begun snowing in Tok and Delta Junction and this will
continue progressing north/west through tomorrow. Snowfall may be
heavy at times as this moves through. The snow will stop from west
to east through the day tomorrow with another round on Saturday
as additional moisture and shortwaves move in from the southeast.
Otherwise, blowing snow and blizzard conditions on the West Coast
will end today if they haven`t already and the North Slope will be
cloudy with areas of light snow and snow showers through Friday
night with no significant hazards expected. The next system we are
monitoring will be a low in the Bering with a decently strong
front bringing snow and wind back to the West Coast on Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Weather Messages...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Snow is developing in the Southeast Interior and will progress
north/west through the day. Snow continues through tomorrow
morning before ending from west to east.
*Snowfall totals through Friday PM
- 2 to 4 inches in the middle Tanana Valley with 2 or less
around Nenana
- 4 to 7 inches north and east of Fairbanks in the hills/White
mtns, especially along the Steese Highway and CHSR.
- A break in the snow occurs tomorrow morning/afternoon with some
sunshine peaking out of the clouds, then snow returns in the SE
Interior Friday evening/night.
- Snow will spread northwest again with an increasing likelihood
that it makes it to Fairbanks by Saturday afternoon. Snowfall
totals are uncertain in Fairbanks but there can be 1 to 3
inches from Northway to Delta Junction to the Yukon/Tanana
Uplands.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Conditions are improving across the West Coast but gusty winds
and blowing snow remain in the Bering Strait through this
evening before improving gradually.
- Light snow in the Western Interior on Friday and Friday night with
minimal accumulations.
- Brief high pressure builds on Saturday with a front bringing
snow and blowing snow to the West Coast on Sunday.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Point Hope and Kivalina will have blowing snow with blizzard
conditions at times, this will improve gradually tonight.
- Light snow and snow showers over the Brooks Range and North
Slope Friday and Friday night with light accumulations.
Forecast Analysis and Discussion...
A low over Nunivak Island is keeping snow and blowing snow along
portions of the West coast through this evening before improving.
Gusty winds remain in Point Hope and Kivalina through Friday
morning then improve. A high in the Arctic will keep most of the
Eastern Arctic Coast dry through tomorrow, but light snow and
snow showers will move into the Brooks Range and Central/Western
North Slope Friday and Friday night with mostly light snow
accumulations expected. In the Interior, a closed upper low is
near the AlCan Border and providing snow to the Eastern Interior
which will be heavy at times through tonight. This snow will
spread towards Fairbanks this evening with the heaviest expected
in the hills/White Mountains north/east of Fairbanks. Heavy snow
is possible at times with this as well and locations underneath
the heaviest banding will see the most snow. Again, this will most
likely be in the hills where up to 7 inches is possible. The
front moves into the Western Interior tomorrow with light snow and
light accumulations. There will be a break on from east to west
on Friday before another front moves into the SE Interior and
Central Interior Friday night into Saturday. Then on Sunday, a
front will move to the West Coast from a Bering Sea storm bringing
another round of wind and snow.
Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
An Arctic high will drop south Sunday night into Monday with
cooler and drier weather for most of the Arctic Coast and Interior
through the middle of next week. The West Coast will be active
with a Bering Sea low continuing to provide rounds of wind and
snow. There may be another round of blizzard conditions towards
the middle of next week, especially in the Bering Strait.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ815.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ821.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ834-838-842-843.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-805-810-811.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804.
Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-860.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-859.
Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
Gale Warning for PKZ816-817.
Gale Warning for PKZ850-854-856.
Gale Warning for PKZ851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.
Gale Warning for PKZ853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
&&
$$
Bianco
723
FXAK67 PAJK 062302
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
202 PM AKST Thu Mar 6 2025
.SHORT TERM...Key Messages:
-Active weather continues into the end of the week, with the next
in the series of systems tracking in Thursday night through early
Saturday.
-Elevated marine winds up to gale force for southern channels and
near gale for central channels Thursday night into late Friday.
-Heavy snow for the Klondike and Haines highways in the farther
northern panhandle. See the latest Winter Storm Warning for
details.
-Strong wind gusts much of the panhandle Thursday night into
Friday afternoon with high wind gusts up to 60 mph for the
Metlakatla area. See the latest High Wind Warning for details.
Details: As the fronts track into the panhandle Thursday night
onwards, very strong winds will flow into the panhandle through
the southern panhandle. The strongest winds are expected in the
far southern panhandle. Wind gusts upwards of 60 mph for Annette
Island. Wind gusts around 35 to 50 mph for the rest of the
southern panhandle. Some gusts nearing 25 to 40 mph for areas
north of Frederick Sound through Friday as the low tracks north.
For precip, the associated warm front moving up from the south
Thursday night into Friday is expected to bring heavy
precipitation. While most areas can expect mainly rain, the
far northern panhandle will likely see a rain-snow mix or all snow
at higher elevations. Ahead of the front, northernly winds look
to pull cold air from Canada into the northern panhandle, which
would lower snow levels and temps. But as the front tracks farther
northward, warm, southerly air looks to increase snow levels to
around 1500 ft. Moderate to heavy snow is likely, before the
warmer air moves in and allows rain to mix in. The trailing cold
front will help send a surge of stronger winds through the far
southern panhandle on Friday.
.LONG TERM...The long term forecast remains wet with light
precipitation continuing into the start of next week. The first low
starts to diminish Saturday into Sunday allowing for lingering
precipitation, mainly focused on the southern panhandle. As this low
diminishes, winds along the gulf and inside waters will decrease as
well. Fresh to strong breezes will continue across the gulf as the
next low develops.
The second low develops Sunday into Monday making its way toward
the panhandle. With little to no break between the systems, light
precipitation will be observed as mid level zonal flow continues.
Increasing probability of precipitation for the beginning of the
week was one of the main changes made to the forecast. Confidence
has increased that multiple low pressure systems following each
other will keep the panhandle in a wet pattern. Another notable
change in the forecast, with the system Sunday into the beginning
of the week, will be the change in temperatures. Below typical
temperatures will be observed across the panhandle. This makes the
precipitation type become snow or a snow/rain mix for most of the
panhandle by Sunday night. Temperatures will be right around
freezing for the central and southern panhandle, creating a mix
of precipitation. Snow that falls will be wet in character with
low snow ratios.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions will persist across the northern
panhandle Thursday afternoon before deteriorating from south to
north tonight into Friday with increasing winds, lowering CIGs and
VIS with precipitation. Skagway and Haines are expected to
transition to a rain snow mix as this system moves in tonight,
along with a drop in wind speeds. Southern panhandle could see
minor improvements this evening before approaching gale force
front brings deteriorating conditions and widespread LLWS lasting
through Friday morning. Associated low clouds and moderate to
heavy rain will lead to IFR and occasional LIFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...A gale force low in the Gulf swings a front across the
panhandle by early Friday morning. As this low tracks north within
the Gulf, strong marine up to severe gales are likely for the
southern inner channels and out in the gulf. For areas along and
north of Frederick Sound, wind speeds upwards of 25 to 30 knots
(strong breeze to near-gale) are likely beginning Thursday night
and lasting through Friday night, with gales returning to the
outer coastal waters. Winds rapidly decrease by early Saturday as
the front and low weaken while exiting the area.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through Friday afternoon
for AKZ317-328.
Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318.
Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 9 PM AKST Friday
for AKZ318.
Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon AKST Friday
for AKZ319.
Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through late tonight for
AKZ323-329.
Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through Friday afternoon
for AKZ327.
Strong Wind from late tonight through Friday afternoon for
AKZ330.
High Wind Warning from 3 AM to 3 PM AKST Friday for AKZ332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641>644-652-661>664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-053-651.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PRB
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...PRB
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