099
FXAK68 PAFC 011253
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
453 AM AKDT Sat Nov 1 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...
A complex, gale-force low remains in the Gulf of Alaska today. One
of the distinct low centers has passed just west of Middleton
Island early Saturday morning, and will rapidly weaken as the low
center in the south-centeral Gulf will swing northward to the east
of Middleton by early afternoon and then stall out near there into
tonight. This will result in the Gale-force (or near Gale) winds
persisting for the north Gulf coast today. There is also a
pronounced upper level wave associated with the first low center
that moving across the area over Anchorage and the Susitna Valley
early this morning. This is not expected to bring much
precipitation to the Lee sides of the mountains, but there is a
bit an area of clearing behind this wave. Therefore, don`t be
surprised to see a few breaks in the cloud cover today after this
wave goes through.
By Saturday night, the low weakens and moves onshore leaving
westerly flow across Kodiak Island and the Gulf with the residual
moisture over Southcentral under southerly flow aloft. The
interest in this moisture is that a broad shortwave trough aloft
will lift across Southcentral Sunday through Monday. This could
provide enough lift to produce some light showers for the Cook
Inlet region, especially Sunday night. Temperatures will be
cooling with the light southerly flow as cold air streaming across
the Bering Sea wraps back north around the trough axis, meaning
that temperatures will cool across Southcentral heading into next
week. As a result, these showers will be increasingly likely to be
in the form of snow and bring some light accumulations to parts
of the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and Mat-Su Valleys into Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...
Synoptic: A Gulf of Alaska low moves toward Prince William Sound
while a Bering Sea low traverses the Western Aleutians through
Monday.
The 965 mb low in the Gulf of Alaska will continue to dominate
the weather pattern in the Kuskokwim Valley and Delta this
weekend. As the low moves in a northeastward direction today, the
highest QPF values, and therefore the highest snow accumulations
through later this morning, continue to trend east of Bethel.
Therefore, snowfall accumulations have decreased: coastal areas
are expected to accumulate up to an inch, up to two inches near Bethel
and up to four inches towards Sleetmute by late this morning.
Northwest winds will continue through the late this morning then
shift to a more northwesterly direction as the aforementioned low
moves farther east and a Bering Strait low forms. This wind shift
to a more northwesterly, onshore flow persists during this
afternoon and evening throughout the Kuskokwim Delta and Valley
and will keep light snow showers will continue. A weak ridge moves
across the Central Aleutians tomorrow reaching the Southwest
Mainland tomorrow afternoon. Its arrival will signal a more
westerly onshore flow for the Mainland.
Light snow/rain showers measured a trace to 0.04" and wind gusts
from last evening through 4:00am this morning in the Central and
Eastern Aleutians as continued robust northerly winds continued;
Cold Bay recorded 50 mph with other locations ranging from 35 to
45 mph. A weak, fast- moving low travels along a deep Bering Sea
trof today. The low crosses just west of Unalaska later this
morning and into the North Pacific in the afternoon. A brief
increase in wind speeds, gusts and wave height will accompany its
arrival with gusts to 50 mph; highest in bays and passes. The
aforementioned weak ridge will cross the Central and Eastern
Aleutians as well as the Alaska Peninsula in the wake of today`s
low.
A Bering Low moves along a deep trof in the Western Bering
bringing gale force strength winds to Shemya tomorrow morning
and reaching Adak by tomorrow evening. Forecaster experience and
interpretation of model biases the past 72 hours including today
continue the trend for this low to trek over the Central Aleutians
and into the North Pacific. Therefore, confidence of the low`s
overall track remains high. Temperatures will rise slightly ahead
of the low`s crossing as southwest flow from its front becomes
the dominant wind direction.
-Johnston
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...
Precipitation moves from Southcentral to Southwest and north along
the western coast as remnants of a front weakens and dissipates
northward across the western part of the state Tuesday into
Wednesday. Ridging then moves in across Southcentral and a
Kamchatka low descends from the western Bering across the
Aleutians then into the North Pacific by Wednesday morning.
Northerly gales are anticipated from this system between Amchitka
to Atka, although model agreement remains low concerning the
strength and location of the strongest winds. A low in the
southern Gulf will project its front into the northern and eastern
Gulf coast Thursday through Friday as the low continues
approaching the northern Gulf coast into the weekend. Looking
back to the western Bering on Friday, a strong low could
potentially bring storm force winds to the Aleutian Chain.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds are expected to persist.
There is a small chance for some fog development after midnight
Saturday night if there are sufficient breaks in the cloud cover
overnight.
&&
$$
676
FXAK69 PAFG 011214
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
414 AM AKDT Sat Nov 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
The overall pattern remains fairly active with widespread snow
showers across the state. A newly formed low from the central
portion of the state will slowly move east, over the next day or
so, then shift south toward the YK-Delta. This will create another
round of troughing across the Bering Sea. An Arctic high from the
Chukchi will begin to shift E/SE, setting up easterly flow across
the North Slope. This will continue to provide these areas with
snow showers for the next several days. The Arctic high and trough
will eventually form a deformation band, somewhere along the West
Coast by Tuesday. This will continue the snowfall along the West
Coast through the mid week.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Snow showers will taper off by the late morning, becoming more
oriented over the Central and Western Interior. Some slick
surfaces may be present on the roads and sidewalks this morning.
An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow is possible through this
morning for the Dalton Highway Summits and the White Mountains,
with up to an inch possible elsewhere.
- Winds will continue to weaken throughout the day.
- South/southeasterly flow will continue to keep temperatures
unseasonably warm. Temperatures will begin to slightly cool
today as the warm front continues to progress across the state.
A gradual cooldown is expected through the early parts of next
week.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Northerly winds will continue to remain elevated through Sunday
afternoon with gusts between 40 and 50 mph.
- Scattered snow showers will continue across the Bering Strait, West
Coast, and Western Interior throughout the weekend.
- Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend, then
begin a cooldown going into the mid part of next week.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Northeasterly winds are expected to remain elevated throughout
the weekend. Strongest winds are expected along the western
Arctic Coast, peaking around 20-30 mph with gusts to 35-50 mph.
- Isolated to scattered snow showers can be expected across the
North Slope through the weekend with a series of fronts moving
over the Brooks Range. Heaviest snowfall is expected on the
south facing slopes of the eastern Brooks Range, 3" to 6"
possible. 1" to 3" expected elsewhere.
- Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend, then
begin a cooldown going into the mid part of next week.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
An area of low pressure has begun building up over the central
portion of the state throughout the overnight hours. This is
due to the wrap around that was occurring with a stronger surface
low moving into the NE portion of the Gulf of Alaska. The newly
formed low will continue to move west throughout the day. This
will continue to supply snow showers for the Western Interior and
the West Coast throughout the weekend. With the orientation of the
low, this is allowing for southerly flow to return over the
eastern portion of the state. With that said, the cooling trend
will be more gradual through mid week.
Another low is circulating over the Yukon, in Canada, which will
continue to supply to North Slope with easterly flow throughout
the weekend. This will provide widespread snowfall between 1 and
3 inches, with up to 9 inches possible for the eastern Brooks
Range. An Arctic high will continue to shift E/SE from the
Chukchi, which will continue to aid the easterly flow and bring
seasonal temperatures back into the state.
A more defined trough will begin to form across the Bering Strait,
around Monday. This is due to the westward tracking low, from the
central portion of the state, begins to shift southward into the
YK-Delta. This will begin to interact with the Chukchi high and
create a weak deformation band across the West Coast, which will
bring another wave of snow showers. Models remain uncertain in
the exact positioning of this feature and will continue to be
monitored over the next several runs.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time. Freeze up is beginning across the area and
is expected to continue as colder temperatures persist.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Models continue to show troughing across the West Coast through
the mid week. Deterministic models continue to show the chance
for another low to move into the northern Gulf of Alaska by mid
week, which could impact the region towards the end of next week.
These will continue to be monitored over the next few days as
these features will become the main drivers for the overall
pattern through the end of next week.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802-813-814-858>860.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-812.
Gale Warning for PKZ806-807.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808-855.
Gale Warning for PKZ810-811-857.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ813-814-858>860.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
Gale Warning for PKZ816.
Gale Warning for PKZ817-854.
Gale Warning for PKZ850.
Gale Warning for PKZ853.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
Gale Warning for PKZ856.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&
$$
Twombly
837
FXAK67 PAJK 011151
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
351 AM AKDT Sat Nov 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Onshore flow continues with persistent showers through the
upcoming weekend.
- Gusty winds over land for northern half of the area as another
wave pushes through Saturday afternoon and into the evening.
- Isolated thunderstorms, primarily for the gulf and outer coastal
waters through Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Active weather continues across the panhandle as
another frontal band is set to move through the area Saturday
afternoon and Saturday evening, with abundant onshore flow
preceding it resulting in widespread rain showers ahead of its
arrival.
Satellite and radar imagery as of early Saturday morning show
widespread convective activity (showers) across the panhandle,
fueled by steeper mid-level lapse rates in the wake of a trough
which moved through the preceding day. A few of these showers are
producing lightning and thunder, and outer coastal waters and
communities like Sitka will see continued chances for
thunderstorms continuing through the day on Saturday.
Our next organized system is already taking shape. A strong ~965
mb low in the western gulf will meander into the northern gulf
through the day as it slowly fills in and weakens. A tightly
wound front will race around the low and move up into the
panhandle Saturday afternoon and evening, primarily impacting the
northern half of the area. Anticipate winds - which are already
elevated in some areas - to strengthen significantly, especially
for areas from Sitka Sound northward. Winds across some locations
like Juneau will likely see gusts up to 35 kt by the late
afternoon and evening hours. Widespread moderate to heavy rain
will also occur, with the heaviest rainfall across the NE Gulf
Coast. Accumulating snow is also expected along the Klondike
Highway, mainly above elevations of 2000 feet, though for the time
being, do not expect accumulations to pile up fast enough to
warrant an advisory or a warning.
The main changes to the forecast were to strengthen winds on
Saturday in conjunction with the next frontal band. QPF totals
were also increased somewhat, largely across the northern half of
the panhandle and the NE Gulf Coast.
.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/...Not many changes were
made to the extended forecast, with the main ones being timing
and strength of the winds going into Sunday morning. Along the
northern gulf coast, the E to SE winds were bumped forward a few
hours and therefore diminish quicker. In the inner channels, winds
were slightly increased and prolonged going into Sunday, as well
as Tuesday night. The previous gale force low bringing impacts
Friday into Saturday will stall in the northwestern gulf through
Sunday, enhancing S to SW onshore flow and allowing for widespread
shower development to push into the panhandle. Overall winds for
the panhandle will steadily decrease through the end of the
weekend into early next week, though showers may still bring
periods of moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds as they pass
over.
Shower potential will begin to diminish Monday afternoon as a
fast moving system dips into the southern gulf, turning overall
flow more E to SE. Rain rates for the northern panhandle
significantly drop early next week, and some small breaks in the
clouds may be possible as well. The associated frontal band will
mainly affect areas south of the panhandle along the eastern BC
coast, though it will attempt to wrap around and swing up into the
southern panhandle overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. This could
allow for some enhanced easterly winds, especially through gaps in
terrain. Rain rates will start low and slowly pick up through the
week, with less than half an inch expected in 24 hours when the
system initially hits increasing to around an inch in 24 hours by
Wednesday. Near gale to gale force E to SE winds (28 to 40 kts)
will pick up in the southeastern gulf through the day Tuesday, and
with high pressure developing in YT, the pressure gradient over
the panhandle will begin to tighten and turn. This will allow for
outflow winds to pick up going into Wednesday, with areas such as
Lynn Canal seeing wind speeds reaching gale force for a short
while Wednesday morning. This low looks to similarly stall in the
gulf for a few days, potentially helping to steer showers or
another system into the panhandle for next weekend. High
temperatures in the mid to upper 40s will prevail through the
weekend before the northern panhandle drops significantly to highs
in the low 40s going into next week. Lows will be in the mid to
upper 30s this weekend, with the northern panhandle following the
trend and dropping down to low 30s early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions exist across the panhandle this morning
with some pockets of MVFR. Showers continue to move onshore along
the panhandle bringing lowered conditions. There have been some
occasional lightning strikes, especially as the showers hit the
mountains as they move onshore this morning. These showers are
expected to continue along with the potential for some occasional
lightning. Gusty winds also exist with these showers. Besides the
gusty winds, winds in the first 2,000ft continue to range from
20-40 kt across the panhandle so there is the potential for LLWS
today, especially through the morning hours. Concerns from the
AAWU for the morning hours will be the potential for some isolated
moderate icing across the panhandle as well as isolated moderate
turbulence for the northern Gulf coast.
&&
.MARINE...Main story: Elevated winds and seas continue as another
front moves into the area.
Outside Waters: Winds in the Gulf will be on an upward trend
through the morning as another front sweeps across the outer
waters and enters the panhandle. Sustained winds will reach 40-45
kt and waveheights of 22-27 ft are expected. Through the evening
and overnight hours, winds and waves will slowly subside,
diminishing to 20-30 kt and 12-15 feet respectively. Winds and
waveheights will continue on a diminishing trend through Sunday,
before a weak wave moves up from the south on Monday. Wave period
as of early Saturday morning is 13-15 seconds with a SW swell.
Inside Waters: Winds in the inside waters will be on a
strengthening trend through the day as another front moves across
the panhandle. Through the afternoon hours, winds ranging from
strong breezes to gale-force will be present across the inner
channels, alongside elevated wave heights. Some relief is expected
on Sunday, when wind speeds diminish down towards 15 - 25 kt
(fresh breeze to strong breeze).
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 1 PM AKDT this afternoon through this evening
for AKZ322.
Strong Wind from 1 PM AKDT this afternoon through this afternoon
for AKZ323.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-031-033-642>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-032-034>036-053-641.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...GFS
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