461
FXAK68 PAFC 171348
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
448 AM AKST Mon Nov 17 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A surface warm front associated with a deep low near Nunivak
Island is currently in Prince William Sound. Aloft, a negatively
tilted shortwave lags behind the main surface front. The
combination of these features will bring a brief period of snow
to Anchorage early this morning, followed by the Mat-Su Valleys
later this morning into early this afternoon. So far the radar
presentation of the system is unimpressive and indicates the upper
level feature is moving through much faster than anticipated
yesterday. There are showers on the backside of this initial front
however, so snow totals may still stack up to be a few inches for
the Cook Inlet areas north through Anchorage and the Mat-Su.
Coastal areas will receive more or less continuous precipitation
over the coming days, but there should be a brief break later this
morning following frontal passage and before showers develop.
With the front now in the Sound, temperatures through Turnagain
Arm have shot up into the mid-30s with rain being observed on the
Seward Highway and through Portage. Winter Weather Advisories
remain in effect for the Interior Kenai Peninsula, Girdwood,
Portage, Turnagain Pass and Whittier; however, now they
incorporate mixed precipitation and slushy to icy conditions on
the highways. Areas less affected by the wind (Girdwood proper)
and at higher elevations are more likely to remain snow. Valdez
will also be a tricky forecast, with any southerly wind coming
through the narrows possibly causing a mix with rain, but overall
conditions and the ambient cold airmass support up to a foot of
snow by Tuesday morning.
The forecast from Tuesday onward devolves into chaos as a
multitude of features aloft move overhead with no well defined
surface fronts or areas of low pressure until Wednesday. The main
sensible weather for Tuesday will be snow showers, which should
they train over an area lead to a quick couple of inches. The main
synoptic drivers consist of the occluding low near Nunivak Island
that will slowly move north into the Bering Strait, a broad
complex low/through that will move east across the Bering through
the forecast period, and a broadening low in the north Pacific
that will eventually make its way into the eastern Gulf by
Wednesday. The combination of these features will gradually
amplify the pattern and create generally southwest flow aloft. The
southerly input will slowly replace the cold airmass with a
warmer one, which will increase the chance for mixed or warm
precipitation types by Thursday throughout most of Southcentral.
All in all, the pattern will become increasingly active, with a
slowly warming airmass. Precipitation chances will remain high
through the week, so stay tuned to the forecast for more
information on timing, magnitude and precipitation type as the
features gradually come into focus.
-CJ
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 to 3: Today through Thursday morning)...
The strong and tightly wound up/compact low that gave blizzard
conditions to Nunivak Island and Nelson Island yesterday will
continue advancing northward to near St. Lawrence Island by
Tuesday morning. Southerly to southeasterly winds along the
mainland Southwest coast today will turn more southwesterly by
Tuesday. The strongest winds today will be felt along the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast and especially near Kipnuk where winds will
gust up to 40 mph at times. This stronger push of wind will also
bring elevated water levels with the 9 AM high tide. With that, a
Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for Kipnuk through Noon
AKST today.
Temperatures through much of today will be warm enough
for rain or rain/snow mix as they hover just above freezing.
However, cold air from Russia will be dragged southward by the
departing strong low to north and move into Southwest late tonight
and Tuesday. This will allow any rain over the Kuskokwim Delta and
Kuskokwim Delta Coast to turn to snow and for any rain across
Bristol Bay to mix with snow at times tonight into Tuesday. The
majority of moisture moving into Southwest off the Bering Sea, in
the wake of the strong low, will impact mostly the Kuskokwim
Delta and Kuskokwim Delta Coast Tuesday where a couple inches of
snowfall will be possible.
The next notable storm system moves into the western Bering
Tuesday morning as a front brings gusty southeast winds to the
Western Aleutians Tuesday morning along with moderate rain. The
front moves eastward across the Bering and Aleutians through
Wednesday morning as it makes it to the Pribilof Islands by then.
There is uncertainty with where a compact low pressure system
might spin up along this front during its journey east across the
Bering. This will have impacts on the wind field forecast across
the Bering as well as the precipitation forecast across the
Aleutians and Pribilof Islands.
The frontal system eventually tracks into the eastern Bering and
reaches the mainland Southwest coast by mid-Wednesday morning.
Strong southerly winds will accompany the front at the coast.
While precipitation may initially start as snow or rain/snow mix,
enough warm air may move into areas along the coast to change
precipitation over to rain. However, the level to which warmer
air works in is uncertain at this time due to timing differences
in when the parent low, which looks to be in the Bering between
the Pribilofs and St. Matthew Island Wednesday afternoon,
occludes. Yet another point of uncertainty will be the potential
for a stronger low to move into the southeastern Bering by
Wednesday night into Thursday. A northern solution would bring
more in the way of heavier precipitation across mainland Southwest
Wednesday night into Thursday while a southern solution, more
into the North Pacific, would keep the gusty winds and heavy
precipitation confined to the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula. Stay tuned to forecast updates as the active pattern
looks to continue.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...
Broad upper level troughing will be present over the Bering Sea
by the start of the long term forecast period. Shortwaves rotating
around the base of the trough will allow for a strong surface low
to lift up toward Kodiak Island on Thursday shifting the main
trough axis east over mainland Alaska for Friday and Saturday.
Deterministic models vary greatly on the exact track of this
surface low, but it looks to direct a plume of deep moisture
toward the southern Alaska coast Thursday and Friday. Expect
moderate to heavy rain at sea level and heavy mountain snow for
the Alaska Peninsula, Kodiak Island, and the north Gulf Coast.
Gale to storm-force winds will also be associated with this low in
the surrounding marine areas before it dissipates Friday night.
High pressure will build over the Aleutians through the weekend
and increase in amplitude as it marches over western mainland
Alaska by Monday. It will quickly be followed by upper level
troughing over the western Bering with deep southerly flow and
embedded surface lows locally enhancing winds and rain across the
western Aleutians.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...A surface warm front is moving into Prince William Sound
this morning, with an upper level shortwave passing shortly
after. So far if this band of snow (as of 4am) is what the models
were depicting as the main band, and it is very much under-
performing. However, the radar is filling in over Cook Inlet and
an area of showers is developing. If they continue to progress
east, IFR conditions will likely develop around 18Z, but given the
current trends, this is becoming increasingly unlikely.
&&
$$
411
FXAK69 PAFG 171629
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
729 AM AKST Mon Nov 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS... A broad area of low pressure is continuing to
transition up into the Bering Straits, with a series of low pressure
systems moving through the Bering Sea into Western Alaska through
midweek which will support gusty winds, widespread snow, and warming
temperatures along the West Coast and Western Interior. An overlap
of gusty winds and snow could lead to significant reductions in
visibility at times. Winds, snow chances, and warmer temperatures
will build into the Interior north to the North Slope southwest to
northeast as a more active and warmer pattern begins to encompass
Northern Alaska, and will eventually shift towards the eastern
portion of the Mainland going into the later part of the week.
Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Advisories have been issued for the
Yukon Delta north through the Seward Peninsula and NW Arctic Coast
for gusty winds and snow/blowing snow, with a Wind Advisory in
effect for Isabel Pass along the Richardson Highway for strong gap
winds. This active weather pattern is expected to persist in the
Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska to finish out the week, as a series of
low pressure systems and fronts moving into Alaska help to reinforce
warmer temperatures, winds, and snow chances through then, but there
will likely begin more of a transition back to colder and drier
conditions for the upcoming weekend.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Cold and dry conditions will continue across the Interior ahead
of moisture from the Bering Sea building in southwest to
northeast tonight into Monday and Tuesday with widespread light
snowfall, heaviest in the Alaska Range.
- Southerly winds will continue to be strong and gusty for Windy
Pass and Isabel Pass through Monday, with gusts up to 55 mph
expected.
- Following an extended stretch of cold, below normal
temperatures will trend warmer through the upcoming work week.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- A very active weather pattern continues through midweek as a
series of storms in the Bering Sea impact Western Alaska with
gusty winds, widespread snow, and warmer temperatures.
- Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been
issued along the West Coast and at St. Lawrence Island, where
the heaviest snow and strongest winds are expected. Localized
blizzard conditions are possible, leading to possible whiteout
conditions at times.
- Strongest wind gusts through midweek will peak around 30-50 mph,
strongest offshore and at St. Lawrence Island where gusts up to
60 mph are possible. These winds will weaken later this evening.
- Temperatures will continue to see a steady warming trend with
southerly flow. While predominant snow is expected, a rain/snow
in place. A mix will be possible across lowest elevations,
particularly the southern coastlines.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Cold and mostly dry conditions will continue across the Brooks
Range and North Slope through tonight, with isolated snow
showers and areas of fog along the Arctic Coast.
- E/NE winds prevail along the Arctic Coast, strongest further
west out towards Point Hope and the Lisburne Peninsula where
gusts up to 45 mph will continue through Monday.
- A system moving north across Western Alaska will support the
return of widespread snow moving into the Central/Western Brooks
Range today into Tuesday and NW Arctic Coast.
- Following an extended stretch of cold, below normal
temperatures, conditions will trend warmer through the work
week.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Tonight through Wednesday.
The area of low pressure located over the Bering Sea is continuing
to propagate northward with an associated band of snow currently
pushing up through the Norton Sound. This has allowed for some very
strong and gusty winds to increase out of the north through the
Bering Strait, which is also impacting St. Lawrence Island with
winds up to 60 mph. Widespread snow chances will continue to shift
northeast starting tonight into Monday, with an overlap of snow and
the strongest winds leading to localized blizzard conditions at
times. Snowfall accumulations expected through Wednesday, with this
series of systems moving through, continue to show that the areas of
highest snowfall totals will be for the southern mountains of the
Seward Peninsula, with some areas receiving possibly up to 20", across
the West Coast/NW Arctic Coast, Western Interior, Western and
Central Brooks Range, and in the Alaska Range. This area could
receive generally 3-6" for St. Lawrence Island, and higher
elevations of the Alaska Range/Brooks Range. Strongest winds
remain offshore and at St. Lawrence Island, where wind gusts up to
60 mph are expected. Winds elsewhere along the West Coast will
see gusts peak around 30-50 mph. Due to the warm air advection out
of the south, there could also be a few locations for the
Southwest Coast of the Yukon Delta which may have a mix of rain
and snow. Here is where after the intrusion of warm air builds in
tomorrow, there is lower confidence on significantly reduced
visibilities in blowing snow which may result in localized
blizzard conditions. These winds will continue to diminish by
later tonight with a lessening threat of this scenario as it does.
For the Interior, the colder temperatures will continue to
transition to a warming pattern through Wednesday. Snow chances
will build into the Interior tomorrow into Tuesday, with more
moderate snowfall amounts expected across the Western Interior and
Alaska Range, and lighter amounts further east over the Yukon
Flats, and along the Alcan Border.
Coastal Hazard Potential Day 1 and 2...As a series of low pressure
systems move through the Bering Sea, minor rises above MHHW are
expected along southwestern portions of the West Coast through
midweek, particularly across the southern Yukon Delta around Hooper
Bay. Ice will help to reduce the possibility of this scenario
overall, but given the bulk of ice is not shorefast yet, we will
continue to monitor this over the coming days.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Wednesday night through next Sunday.
Ensemble trends have shown little change with most of the region
being influenced by low pressure. The overall energy from the broad
areas of low pressure is going to move into the Gulf of Alaska
towards the end of the week, and the southerly flow will keep the
relatively warmer airmass in place, which could lead to some of the
coastal areas along the Southwest Coast of the Y-K Delta to get a
mix of rain and snow ahead of the low moving into the Gulf, but then
transition back to snow with colder air advection on the backside of
this system. The moisture from the south is going to expand across
much of the Mainland towards the end of the week, and then going
into the following weekend, there are beginning signals which
indicate that a ridge could be building back in towards the end of
next weekend and will continue to lead to a cooling and drying
pattern.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ814>819.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820-821.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ822-823-827.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ824>826.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-806-807-816-817-850-852>854-856-
857.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-805-806-811.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ803-851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-853.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805>807-810-811-816-817-852-
854-856>858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
&&
$$
Stewey
457
FXAK67 PAJK 171946 AAA
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1046 AM AKST Mon Nov 17 2025
.Mid Morning and 18z Aviation Update...
No major changes to short term forecast this morning as front
continues to push into the panhandle through Monday. Main concern
will be winds increasing within the N/S inner channels through the
afternoon as front passes for places like Lynn Canal, Stephens
Passage, with winds up to 25 to 30kts by Monday evening.
Precipitation chances gradually decrease from W to E through
Monday evening as front exits the area, potential for breaks in
precip overnight into early Tuesday before another weak system
pushes into the NE Gulf coast, bringing a return of precip along
and north of the Icy Strait Corridor for Tuesday morning.
&&
AVIATION.../Until 12Z Tuesday/...
MVFR to VFR flight conditions with CIGS AoB 5000ft and
intermittent visbys down to 3SM ongoing across the panhandle this
morning as front pushes inland. Not anticipating much improvement
through Monday, MVFR flight conditions become predominate through
00z with CIGS AoB 2500ft, decreasing further after 06z post FROPA
with intermittent CIGs AoB 1500ft by 15z Tuesday. Highest
potential for IFR cigs late Monday night into Tuesday morning
across the southern panhandle TAF sites like Klawock, Ketchikan,
and Petersburg. Return to MVFR to VFR flight conditions once more
through Tuesday morning as a weak system pushes into the NE Gulf
coast.
Winds across the N panhandle will remain elevated through Monday
afternoon due to aforementioned passing front, with strongest
sustained winds around 15 to 25kts with gusts up to 25 to 35kts.
Strongest winds will remain near TAF sites like Haines and at
Skagway, continuing through Tuesday morning. Winds across the S
panhandle expected to be lighter through Monday afternoon, around
10kts.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 556 AM AKST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...
SYNOPSIS...
Key Points:
- A front has begun to push through the gulf and will push into the
panhandle today bringing increased winds and widespread
precipitation.
- With this front, the Klondike and Haines Highways will see new snow
accumulations Monday. The Klondike Highway will receive around
3 to 5 inches in 12 hours.
- Active weather continues through the rest of the week with a
stronger system mid to late week.
SHORT TERM...The anticipated front continues to move toward the
panhandle. This system has already allowed for precipitation to
fall across the northern panhandle. For many areas, this
precipitation is falling as rain, and will continue to fall as
rain, with isolated areas of mixed precipitation to snow. The
areas were all snow is falling, is mainly over the far north or
at higher elevations. Specifically the Klondike Highway will see
the most snow with accumulations up to around 3 to 5 inches.
Confidence has increased with 12 hour accumulations around 4
inches, calling for a Winter Weather Advisory from mile post 6
and northward along the Klondike. The Haines highway is already
seeing snow fall as well, with expected accumulations around 2 to
3 inches today.
As this front quickly moves over the panhandle, winds will
increase to around 15 mph with gusts to 30 to 40 mph. The
strongest gusts will be located over the northern panhandle near
Skagway. These strong winds will occur late this afternoon into
this evening with winds quickly diminishing afterward. An
exception to this is Lynn Canal that is likely to hold on to
slightly stronger winds near 25 kts into late tonight.
LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/...An active pattern
continues across southeast Alaska through the rest of the week
with multiple systems and a range of possibilities for snow. The
Haines and Klondike Highways remain the likeliest suspects for
accumulating snow at this time. Communities at sea level will be
harder pressed to see any accumulating snow due to the lack of any
cold continental airmass in the lower levels. However, snow mixing
in with rain cannot be ruled out with any heavier precipitation
bringing snow levels closer to the surface, as seen with recent
systems.
For Tuesday, a short wave trough will rotate through the gulf with
some model discrepancies on the strength of two associated lows.
One of these will likely track towards Cook Inlet and Prince
William Sound. The other one is expected to track towards the
panhandle, bringing more precipitation across the panhandle,
lingering over the panhandle Tuesday night. Storm totals are
expected to be lower for this system than the one earlier in the
week, with the upper elevations of the Haines and Klondike
Highways seeing another 1 to 2 inches of snow.
Moving to midweek, there is still some uncertainty over the track
of a gale force low moving into the southern gulf Wednesday. The
GEFs continues to have a midlevel ridge push slightly further
north along the gulf, which is driving the midweek system further
north along the panhandle, while both the Canadian and Euro
ensembles have this ridge being shallower and not steering the low
as far north. Therefore, there were not enough changes to warrant
deviation from the previous forecast in following the trend of
the grand ensemble. This still has the low weakening as it
approaches the panhandle between Dixon entrance and Baranof Island,
though still bringing moderate precipitation, primarily from
Frederick Sound southward. Any northward shift in the track of
this feature would lead to stronger winds pushing further north
along the inner channels as well as higher precipitation rates for
the central panhandle. Even so, the highest precipitation amounts
overall from this system would still be expected along the outer
coast of the southern panhandle with 0.75 to 1.5 inches in 24
hours for the far southern panhandle and outer coast, diminishing
to around 0.5 inches for the panhandle north of Frederick Sound.
Depending upon the northward jog of this low, the highways could
also see another small batch of snow.
Fresh on the heels of this, another system will form south of the
Alaska Peninsula and push a gale force front across the gulf
towards the panhandle Thursday night into Friday. This front is
expected to bring gale force winds to the gulf waters along with
widespread moderate to heavy precipitation to a majority of the
panhandle. The heaviest precipitation is expected along outer
coastal communities, with 24 hour totals from Thursday afternoon
to Friday afternoon 1.5 to 2.5 inches, and locally higher amounts
at higher elevations and westward facing slopes. For communities
in the inner channels, storm totals look to be closer to 0.75
inches to 1.5 inches. As with earlier in the week, a lack of a
significant cold continental airmass in the inner channels will
likely limit any snow potential for communities at sea level.
Haines and Skagway cannot be ruled out, especially higher
elevations of the Chilkat Peninsula. Also, the track of the low
on Wednesday into Thursday could serve to prime the northern inner
channels for snow if it induces a northerly gradient for long
enough. Stay tuned for forecast updates as the week progresses.
MARINE...
Inside Waters: A front moving into the panhandle today will increase
winds across the inner channels to southerly fresh to strong breezes
(17 to 27 kts). The strongest of these winds will occur right as the
front reaches the panhandle late this afternoon, and then begin to
diminish shortly after, through tonight. Lynn Canal will stay
stronger for longer with winds near 25 kts and near gale gusts into
late Monday night. By Tuesday morning, most areas across the inside
waters will see winds below 15 kts. Active weather continues
throughout the week with the next stronger system arriving midweek.
Outside Waters: A front continues to push across the gulf bringing
widespread strong breezes to near gale force winds of 23 to 33 kts.
A small area of winds near Capt St. Elias will increase to gale
force winds around 35 kts this morning. They are already seeing winds
around 30 kts with strong gale force wind gusts around 45 kts. Winds
diminish to fresh to strong breezes late this afternoon into this
evening after the front pushes inland. Southeasterly seas with this
front will build to 11 to 13 ft this morning with around an 8 second
period. Overnight Monday, westerly swell begins to dominate, with
significant heights remaining near 12 ft along our coast at a period
near 12 seconds.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>034-053-641>644-
651-661>664-671.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...EAB
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau
