A Flood Watch is in effect for all areas west of the Rio Grande Valley across northern and central New Mexico from 12 PM Wednesday to 6 AM Friday. A few storms may produce rainfall rates 1 to 2 inches an hour resulting in hazardous flows in arroyos, ditches, and over low water crossings will be a concern.
There is a Slight Risk (15-25% chance) of excessive rainfall over western New Mexico for Wednesday. Excessive rainfall occurs when it rains too fast & heavy for the ground to absorb. This can lead to rapid runoff & flash flooding.
There is a Slight Risk (15-25% chance) of excessive rainfall across western and central New Mexico for Thursday. Excessive rainfall occurs when it rains too fast & heavy for the ground to absorb. This can lead to rapid runoff & flash flooding.
The map on the left shows expected rainfall amounts this evening through 6 PM Friday evening with the highest rainfall amounts over 1-inch remaining concentrated in northwestern to north central New Mexico. The map on the right shows high end rainfall amounts during the same time period with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall in isolated locations across the southwest mountains, west central NM and the southwest slopes of the San Juan Mountains.
There is a Marginal Risk of severe weather in far western New Mexico Wednesday afternoon then over much of western and central New Mexico Thursday. Damaging outflow wind gusts and large hail are the main hazards, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out in western New Mexico as well.
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