for
Hydrologic Verification System Requirements Team
Vision: Provide easy access to enhanced river forecast verification data which will be used to improve our scientific and operational techniques and services.
Mission: Assess forecaster, program management and user needs for verification data. Inventory current national and regional verification practices and identify unmet needs. Establish requirements for a comprehensive national system to verify hydrologic forecasts and guidance products which satisfy these needs. This system should identify sources of error and skill in the forecasts across the entire forecast process.
Scope of Authority/Limitations:
- Team will review the Gary Wick report and briefing entitled “Evaluation of Potential Forecast Accuracy Performance Measures for the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.”
- Team will review current HOSIP documents
- Ensemble Verification and Validation NID-05-26 SON-05-001
- Complete Deterministic Verification NID-05-016-SON-05-001
- Team should consider new verification science and methodologies for inclusion in the system
- Past or current practices, and organizational allegiances among the team members, must not be allowed to influence either the evaluation or the recommendations
- Team will consult with internal and external partners and customers as needed
- Team will consult with internal and external partners and customers as needed
- Team leader will have 51% of the vote and serve as team facilitator
- The team will make decisions by consensus if they can not meet by consensus the Team Leader can use 51% of the vote to make the decision.
- The team will solicit/incorporate minority opinions if decisions are not reached by consensus
- No travel expenses will be authorized
Termination Date: The team will be formed and commence activities by September 30, 2005 and complete their work NLT June 30, 2006.
. Success Criteria/Deliverables:
- Deliver a NWS river forecast verification plan which measures skill and error in the forecast process. The plan includes conceptualized solution and a definition of operational requirements (through HOSIP Gate 2).
Team Membership: Team to be charged by OHD Director
- Julie Demargne (OHD)
- Peter Gabrielsen (ER)*
- Bill Lawrence (SR)
- Scott Lindsey (AR)
- Mary Mullusky (OCWWS)
- Noreen Schwein (CR)
- Scott Staggs (WR)
- Tom Adams (ER)
- Kevin Werner (WR)
- William Marosi (MARFC, NWSEO)
* Team Leader
Updated: January 27, 2006
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