Grade Summary
A slow moving, large low pressure system with copious amounts of cold air and moisture provided multiple rounds of precipitation from the early morning hours of April 13th through the early morning hours of April 16th. The precipitation began as showers and thunderstorms across southern Minnesota which lasted into the evening of April 13th. Precipitation then turned to snow from north to south during the evening. Light snow persisted into the early morning hours of the 14th, before much heavier snow developed by mid morning and continued into early on the 15th. The combination of visibility being so poor due to the intensity of the snow and wind gusts exceeded 35 mph prompted our office to issue the first Blizzard Warning for Minneapolis and St. Paul since the Halloween Blizzard in 1991.
The initial Winter Storm Watch was issued during the afternoon of April 11th. Blizzard Warnings were issued in the afternoon of April 12th for portions of west central Minnesota, with Winter Storm Warnings issued further east during the evening of April 12th. Blizzard Warnings were expanded eastward a few times, eventually reaching the Twin Cities area by early afternoon on April 14th.
Timing of the main round of snow was made complicated by ongoing precipitation and some minor uncertainty regarding the temperature profile of the atmosphere. A couple points were lost due to those errors. A couple points were also deducted due to under forecasting the magnitude of the snow.
For the Minnesota State Climatology Office write up of this event, please consult this link.
Local conditions and perceptions may vary from the objective grade calculated below. Step through the other tabs to see a breakdown of the scoring.
|
89% |
Graded Element | Possible Points | Actual Points |
| 6 inch contour error | N/A | N/A | |
| Magnitude of snow error | 8 | 6 | |
| Onset timing error | 4 | 2 | |
| Peak wind gust error | 4 | 4 | |
| Probability of Detection/False Alarm Ratio | 8 | 8 | |
| Warning lead time | 8 | 8 | |
| Impact messaging | 4 | 4 | |
| Total | 36 | 32 | |
| Grade | 89% |
6 inch contour error
The 6 inch contour error could not be objectively calculated in this case due to its ill-defined nature in the actual totals north of St. Cloud area.
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| Official snowfall forecast at warning issuance | Observed Snowfall |
| Error | Points |
| <=15 miles | 8 |
| 16-20 miles | 7 |
| 21-25 miles | 6 |
| 26-30 miles | 5 |
| 31-35 miles | 4 |
| 36-40 miles | 3 |
| 41-45 miles | 2 |
| 46-50 miles | 1 |
| 51+ miles | 0 |
| Actual: N/A | N/A |
Magnitude of snow error
The highest amount of snow forecast was 19 inches in far western Yellow Medicine county. The highest total was 22.0 inches in Maple Grove, MN, making for a top snow report error of 3.0 inches.
Forecast with initial warning issuance
Thursday afternoon, April 12, 2018:
|
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 |
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| Official snowfall forecast | Low end amount (90% chance for more snow than this) | Median amount (equal chances for more or less than this) | High end amount (10% chance for more snow than this) |
| Error | Points |
| <=2" | 8 |
| 2.1-3.5" | 6 |
| 3.6-5.0" | 4 |
| 5.1-6.5" | 2 |
| 6.6+" | 0 |
| Actual: 3.0" | 6 |
Subsequent Forecasts
Thursday evening, April 12, 2018:
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 |
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| Official snowfall forecast | Low end amount (90% chance for more snow than this) | Median amount (equal chances for more or less than this) | High end amount (10% chance for more snow than this) |
Friday morning, April 13, 2018:
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 |
 |
 |
| Official snowfall forecast | Low end amount (90% chance for more snow than this) | Median amount (equal chances for more or less than this) | High end amount (10% chance for more snow than this) |
Friday mid morning, April 13, 2018:
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 |
 |
| Official snowfall forecast | Low end amount (90% chance for more snow than this) | Median amount (equal chances for more or less than this) | High end amount (10% chance for more snow than this) |
Friday afternoon, April 13, 2018:
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 |
 |
| Official snowfall forecast | Low end amount (90% chance for more snow than this) | Median amount (equal chances for more or less than this) | High end amount (10% chance for more snow than this) |
Saturday morning, April 14, 2018 (some accumulation has already occurred):
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 |
 |
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| Official snowfall forecast | Low end amount (90% chance for more snow than this) | Median amount (equal chances for more or less than this) | High end amount (10% chance for more snow than this) |
Snowfall reports by county:
Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Minnesota... ...Anoka County... Fridley 20.0 in 0900 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER 1 NE Columbia Heights 18.6 in 0815 PM 04/15​ TRAINED SPOTTER Blaine 2NNW 18.4 in 0600 AM 04/16 COCORAHS Andover 1n 17.0 in 0600 AM 04/16 COOP Lino Lakes 17.0 in 0730 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER Blaine 16.0 in 0700 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER Oak Grove 15.3 in 0730 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER Anoka 13.0 in 0830 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER ...Benton County... Rice 4.3 in 0700 AM 04/16 COOP ...Blue Earth County... Mapleton 16.0 in 0745 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER ...Brown County... Sleepy Eye 14.6 in 0800 AM 04/16 COCORAHS Sveadahl 5NNW 8.6 in 0708 AM 04/16 COCORAHS ...Carver County... Victoria 1WSW 20.5 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS Carver 1W 18.8 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS Watertown 18.8 in 0415 AM 04/16 COCORAHS Chanhassen (NWS) 16.7 in 0700 AM 04/16 OFFICIAL NWS OB Waconia 16.7 in 0600 AM 04/16 UCOOP 1 SW Chanhassen 16.1 in 0700 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 E Chanhassen 16.0 in 0907 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER ...Chippewa County... Montevideo 20.5 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS 1 WNW Milan 19.5 in 0600 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER Milan 1NW 19.0 in 0600 PM 04/15 COOP Montevideo 17.5 in 0700 AM 04/16 COOP ...Chisago County... 6 WNW Wyoming 12.8 in 0730 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER Stacy 1W 9.8 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS North Branch 1NNW 8.8 in 0600 AM 04/16 COCORAHS Rush City 3NE 7.5 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS ...Dakota County... Eagan 1NW 17.2 in 0850 AM 04/16 COCORAHS 2 N Apple Valley 17.0 in 0830 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 S Eagan 15.0 in 0800 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER 1 S Lakeville 14.8 in 0800 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER 3 NNW Mendota Heights 12.8 in 0645 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER 1 NNE Burnsville 12.5 in 0610 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER ...Douglas County... Nelson 2WSW 2.9 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS Farwell 5N 2.5 in 0815 AM 04/16 COCORAHS Carlos 3WSW 2.0 in 0530 AM 04/16 COOP ...Faribault County... Winnebago 14.0 in 0800 AM 04/16 COOP Blue Earth 1S 11.4 in 0800 AM 04/16 COOP Bricelyn 10.4 in 0700 AM 04/16 COOP ...Freeborn County... Albert Lea 3SE 8.0 in 0800 AM 04/16 COOP ...Goodhue County... Vasa 5NNE 13.4 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS Nerstrand 4E 11.1 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS Red Wing (L/D 3) 7.0 in 0540 AM 04/16 COOP Zumbrota 6.5 in 0700 AM 04/16 COOP Vasa 5NNE 3.3 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS Zumbrota 3.0 in 0620 AM 04/16 COCORAHS Nerstrand 4E 2.7 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS ...Hennepin County... 1 S Maple Grove 22.0 in 0915 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 NNE Minneapolis 19.8 in 0910 PM 04/15​ TRAINED SPOTTER St. Bonifacius 2ENE 19.6 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS Plymouth 2ENE 18.5 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS Maple Plain 18.5 in 0630 PM 04/15​ TRAINED SPOTTER Long Lake 4SW 18.0 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS Edina 1SE 17.9 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS 2 SSE Edina 17.8 in 0955 PM 04/15​ TRAINED SPOTTER Chanhassen 2SE 17.5 in 0800 AM 04/16 COCORAHS Minneapolis Dwtn 17.0 in 0600 AM 04/16 COOP Crystal 16.5 in 0900 PM 04/15​ TRAINED SPOTTER Bloomington 16.5 in 0600 PM 04/15​ TRAINED SPOTTER 1 W Richfield 16.3 in 0600 PM 04/15​ TRAINED SPOTTER Robbinsdale 16.0 in 0820 PM 04/15​ TRAINED SPOTTER Minneapolis-St. Paul AP-MSP 15.8 in 0653 AM 04/16 OFFICIAL NWS OB Edina 15.5 in 0535 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER 3 E Richfield 14.9 in 0700 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER ...Lac qui Parle County... Dawson 20.0 in 0700 AM 04/16 COOP Montevideo 1SW 17.5 in 0700 AM 04/16 COOP ...Le Sueur County... New Prague 12.5 in 0800 AM 04/16 COCORAHS ...Martin County... Fairmont 15.0 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS ...McLeod County... Brownton 19.0 in 0700 AM 04/16 COOP Silver Lake 1NNW 15.7 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS Glencoe 15.5 in 0700 AM 04/16 COOP ...Meeker County... Dassel 17.1 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS ...Mille Lacs County... Princeton 1NE 15.9 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS 3 E Princeton 10.4 in 0710 PM 04/15​ TRAINED SPOTTER Milaca 7.0 in 0730 AM 04/16 COOP ...Morrison County... 8 SSE Hillman 11.9 in 1020 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER Little Falls 6.5 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS ...Nicollet County... New Ulm 3SE 13.9 in 0553 AM 04/16 COOP ...Ramsey County... 1 NNW Vadnais Heights 21.0 in 0904 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER North St. Paul 1WNW 20.2 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS 1 N West St. Paul 19.2 in 0830 PM 04/15​ TRAINED SPOTTER Mounds View 18.0 in 0700 PM 04/15​ TRAINED SPOTTER Maplewood 17.0 in 0700 AM 04/16 COOP 1 ESE New Brighton 15.0 in 0700 PM 04/15​ TRAINED SPOTTER Mendota Hgts 2WNW 13.2 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS ...Redwood County... Vesta 17.0 in 0530 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER ...Scott County... Prior Lake 1WSW 17.0 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS Savage 3W 16.5 in 0700 AM 04/16 MNDOT Prior Lake 16.0 in 0630 PM 04/15​ TRAINED SPOTTER 3 W Savage 15.5 in 0600 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER Jordan 1SW 14.0 in 0530 AM 04/16 COOP ...Sherburne County... Orrock 2SE 13.2 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS Becker 2NNW 12.0 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS St. Cloud AP 6.0 in 0653 AM 04/16 OFFICIAL NWS OB 6 E St. Cloud 5.8 in 0700 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER ...Stearns County... Kimball 3N 12.0 in 0600 AM 04/16 COOP 3 ESE Avon 11.0 in 0630 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER Paynesville 1SSW 10.0 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS Melrose 6.5 in 0700 AM 04/16 COOP St. Cloud (SCSU) 6.4 in 0700 AM 04/16 UCOOP ...Steele County... Owatonna 10.2 in 0630 AM 04/16 COCORAHS Owatonna 10.0 in 0800 AM 04/16 COOP ...Stevens County... Morris 1SSE 8.6 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS Morris (AG Exp Frm) 4.4 in 0800 AM 04/16 COOP Donnelly 2WNW 1.3 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS Donnelly 2WNW 0.3 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS ...Washington County... White Bear Lake 16.5 in 0800 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 N Newport 16.0 in 0542 PM 04/15​ TRAINED SPOTTER Prior Lake 16.0 in 0630 PM 04/15​ TRAINED SPOTTER Woodbury 15.3 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS 1 W Woodbury 15.5 in 0820 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER 1 NNW Cottage Grove 14.0 in 0915 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER ...Wright County... Rockford 14.0 in 0700 AM 04/16 COOP St. Michael 2ENE 12.6 in 0630 AM 04/16 COCORAHS ...Wisconsin... ...Barron County... Chetek 2SE 10.5 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS ...Chippewa County... Chippewa Falls 13.0 in 0800 AM 04/16 COOP Jim Falls 3NW 10.1 in 0630 AM 04/16 COOP Cornell 4W 9.0 in 0800 AM 04/16 COCORAHS ...Dunn County... Boyceville 3NNE 13.8 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS Menomonie 10.7 in 0800 AM 04/16 COCORAHS ...Eau Claire county... Eau Claire 3SW 13.0 in 0700 AM 04/16 COOP Eau Claire 12.1 in 0800 PM 04/15​ TRAINED SPOTTER Eau Claire 11.5 in 0700 AM 04/16 OFFICIAL NWS OB 3 SSW Altoona 9.4 in 0700 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER ...Pepin County... Stockholm 2NE 11.5 in 0800 AM 04/16 COCORAHS ...Pierce County... Spring Valley 1WSW 15.0 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS River Falls 1SW 11.0 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS River Falls 1S 10.0 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS 5 WSW Bay City 9.0 in 0740 PM 04/15 TRAINED SPOTTER ...Polk County... St. Croix Falls 12.0 in 0700 AM 04/16 COOP ...Rusk County... 1 NW Ladysmith 13.0 in 0600 AM 04/16 COCORAHS Ladysmith 2WNW 11.4 in 0700 AM 04/16 COCORAHS ...St. Croix County... Roberts 13.2 in 0800 AM 04/16 COOP Clear Lake 4S 11.9 in 0840 AM 04/16 COCORAHS Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.
Onset timing error
The time visibility falls to less than 3 miles due to snow is noted for each warned weather station at an airport. This is considered the time accumulations and impacts begin. It is checked against the time snow becomes likely in the forecast when the initial warning is issued and the difference is calculated.
All times occur on the 13th, unless otherwise indicated.
| Warned Airport Weather Station | Expected time accumulating snow becomes likely | Actual time visibility fell to less than 3 miles due to snow | Error (hh:mm) |
| Albert Lea (AEL) | 7:00 am (14th) | 8:55 am (14th) | 2:55 |
| Appleton (AQP) | 7:00 pm | 3:50 pm | 3:10 |
| Benson (BBB) | 7:00 pm | 4:35 pm | 2:25 |
| Blaine (ANE) | 7:00 pm | 9:15 pm | 2:15 |
| Buffalo (CFE) | 7:00 pm | 9:35 pm | 2:35 |
| Cambridge (CBG) | 6:00 pm | 3:55 pm | 2:05 |
| Canby (CNB) | 6:00 pm | 2:35 pm | 3:25 |
| Chetek (Y23) | 7:00 pm | 5:55 pm | 1:05 |
| Crystal (MIC) | 8:00 pm | 9:01 pm | 1:01 |
| Cumberland (UBE) | 5:00 pm | 4:55 pm | 0:05 |
| Eden Prairie (FCM) | 10:00 pm | 8:41 pm | 1:19 |
| Eau Claire (EAU) | 10:00 pm | 9:56 pm | 0:04 |
| Fairmont (FRM) | 4:00 am (14th) | 7:56 am (14th) | 3:56 |
| Faribault (FBL) | 4:00 am (14th) | 9:37 am (14th) | 5:37 |
| Glencoe (GYL) | 8:00 pm | 8:55 pm | 0:55 |
| Glenwood (GHW) | 4:00 pm | 3:35 pm | 0:25 |
| Granite Falls (GDB) | 7:00 pm | 3:15 pm | 3:45 |
| Hutchinson (HCD) | 9:00 pm | 9:55 pm | 0:55 |
| Ladysmith (RCX) | 7:00 pm | 5:55 pm | 1:05 |
| Lake Elmo (21D) | 10:00 pm | 11:16 pm | 1:16 |
| Lakeville (LVN) | 10:00 pm | 8:55 pm | 1:05 |
| Litchfield (LJF) | 7:00 pm | 9:15 pm | 2:15 |
| Madison (DXX) | 7:00 pm | 3:55 pm | 3:05 |
| Mankato (MKT) | 1:00 am (14th) | 7:45 pm (14th) | 5:15 |
| Maple Lake (MGG) | 7:00 pm | 10:15 pm | 3:15 |
| Menomonie (LUM) | 10:00 pm | 12:15 am (14th) | 2:15 |
| Minneapolis/St. Paul (MSP) | 10:00 pm | 6:46 pm | 3:14 |
| Montevideo (MVE) | 7:00 pm | 4:15 pm | 2:45 |
| Mora (JMR) | 5:00 pm | 7:16 pm | 2:16 |
| Morris (MOX) | 6:00 pm | 3:35 pm | 2:25 |
| New Richmond (RNH) | 7:00 pm | 11:35 pm | 4:35 |
| New Ulm (ULM) | 10:00 pm | 2:55 am (14th) | 4:55 |
| Olivia (OVL) | 8:00 pm | 3:35 pm | 4:25 |
| Osceola (OEO) | 7:00 pm | 9:35 pm | 2:35 |
| Owatonna (OWA) | 7:00 am (14th) | No Observation Available | N/A |
| Paynesville (PEX) | 9:00 am | 4:55 pm | 7:55 |
| Princeton (PNM) | 6:00 pm | 5:16 pm | 0:44 |
| Red Wing (RGK) | 12:00 am (14th) | 10:15 pm | 1:45 |
| Redwood Falls (RWF) | 9:00 pm | 9:04 pm | 0:04 |
| Rice Lake (RPD) | 10:00 am | 12:55 pm | 2:55 |
| Rush City (ROS) | 5:00 pm | 6:15 pm | 1:15 |
| Sauk Centre (D39) | 6:00 pm | 4:15 pm | 1:45 |
| South St. Paul (SGS) | 10:00 pm | 9:35 pm | 0:25 |
| St. Cloud (STC) | 5:00 pm | 4:44 pm | 0:16 |
| St. James (JYG) | 1:00 am (14th) | 7:55 am | 6:55 |
| St. Paul (STP) | 10:00 pm | 8:33 pm | 1:27 |
| Stanton Airfield (SYN) | 12:00 am (14th) | 10:15 pm | 1:45 |
| Waseca (ACQ) | 4:00 am (14th) | 9:35 am (14th) | 5:35 |
| Willmar (BDH) | 7:00 pm | 4:35 pm | 2:25 |
| Average: 2:29 |
| Error | Points |
| <1 hr | 4 |
| 1-2 hr | 3 |
| 2-3 hr | 2 |
| 3-4 hr | 1 |
| 4+ hr | 0 |
| Actual: 2:29 | 2 |
Peak wind gust error
Wind gusts of 40-45 mph were predicted throughout the warned areas. The average forecast error was 4 mph.
| Warned Airport Weather Station |
Expected peak wind gusts (mph) |
Actual peak wind gust (mph) |
Error (mph) |
| Albert Lea (AEL) | 45 | 47 | 2 |
| Appleton (AQP) | 45 | 44 | 1 |
| Benson (BBB) | 45 | 38 | 7 |
| Blaine (ANE) | 45 | 36 | 9 |
| Buffalo (CFE) | 45 | 40 | 5 |
| Cambridge (CBG) | 40 | 37 | 3 |
| Canby (CNB) | 45 | 43 | 2 |
| Chetek (Y23) | 40 | 31 | 9 |
| Crystal (MIC) | 45 | Not Available | N/A |
| Cumberland (UBE) | 40 | 35 | 5 |
| Eden Prairie (FCM) | 45 | 42 | 3 |
| Eau Claire (EAU) | 45 | 47 | 2 |
| Fairmont (FRM) | 45 | 58 | 13 |
| Faribault (FBL) | 45 | 39 | 6 |
| Glencoe (GYL) | 45 | 38 | 7 |
| Glenwood (GHW) | 40 | 39 | 1 |
| Granite Falls (GDB) | 45 | 47 | 2 |
| Hutchinson (HCD) | 45 | 44 | 1 |
| Ladysmith (RCX) | 40 | 37 | 3 |
| Lake Elmo (21D) | 45 | 37 | 8 |
| Lakeville (LVN) | 45 | 39 | 6 |
| Litchfield (LJF) | 45 | 41 | 4 |
| Madison (DXX) | 45 | 40 | 5 |
| Mankato (MKT) | 45 | 46 | 1 |
| Maple Lake (MGG) | 45 | 41 | 4 |
| Menomonie (LUM) | 45 | 37 | 8 |
| Minneapolis/St. Paul (MSP) | 45 | 45 | 0 |
| Montevideo (MVE) | 45 | 43 | 2 |
| Mora (JMR) | 40 | 33 | 7 |
| Morris (MOX) | 40 | 35 | 5 |
| New Richmond (RNH) | 45 | 39 | 6 |
| New Ulm (ULM) | 45 | 41 | 4 |
| Olivia (OVL) | 45 | 43 | 2 |
| Osceola (OEO) | 40 | 39 | 1 |
| Owatonna (OWA) | 45 | 54 | 9 |
| Paynesville (PEX) | 40 | 37 | 3 |
| Princeton (PNM) | 40 | 40 | 0 |
| Red Wing (RGK) | 45 | 41 | 4 |
| Redwood Falls (RWF) | 45 | 45 | 0 |
| Rice Lake (RPD) | 40 | 43 | 3 |
| Rush City (ROS) | 45 | 39 | 6 |
| Sauk Centre (D39) | 40 | 36 | 4 |
| South St. Paul (SGS) | 45 | Not Available | N/A |
| St. Cloud (STC) | 40 | 39 | 1 |
| St. James (JYG) | 45 | 38 | 7 |
| St. Paul (STP) | 45 | 45 | 0 |
| Stanton Airfield (SYN) | 45 | 45 | 0 |
| Waseca (ACQ) | 45 | 54 | 9 |
| Willmar (BDH) | 45 | 44 | 1 |
| Average: 4 mph |
| Error | Points |
| <5 mph | 4 |
| 5-8 mph | 3 |
| 9-12 mph | 2 |
| 13-16 mph | 1 |
| 17+ mph | 0 |
| Actual: 4 mph | 4 |
Probability of Detection/False Alarm Ratio/Warning Lead Time
Probability of Detection (POD) is event-based, meaning that each confirmed event is checked to see if a warning was issued and in effect at the time of the event. The national goal for winter storms is 0.90 or greater (90%).
False Alarm Rates (FAR) are computed based on warnings. For each warning issued, did an event meeting warning criteria take place? There is not a set national goal for FAR. The higher the decimal, the more counties were warned for that didn't need them.
Below are maps showing which counties verified (green), which were warned for but didn't reach criteria (orange), and which were not warned for but reached criteria (red). The white counties are 1) outside of our area of responsibility, or 2) were not warned and did not reach criteria. The numbers in each county are hours of lead time.
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| Any warning (Winter Storm or Blizzard) and any criteria being met | Blizzard Warning and blizzard criteria only. Blizzard criteria is 1/4 mile or less visibility due to falling and/or blowing snow, and frequent gusts above 35 mph for a period of at least 3 hours. |
Any warning with winter storm criteria being met:
| POD | Points | FAR | Points | |
| 0.90+ | 4 | <0.11 | 4 | |
| 0.80-0.89 | 3 | 0.11-0.20 | 3 | |
| 0.70-0.79 | 2 | 0.21-0.30 | 2 | |
| 0.60-0.69 | 1 | 0.31-0.40 | 1 | |
| <0.60 | 0 | 0.40+ | 0 | |
| Actual: 1.0 | 4 | Actual: 0.04 | 4 |
Blizzard Warning only:
| POD | FAR |
| Actual: 1.0 | Actual: 0.29 |
Warning lead time
Lead time is considered the amount of time between the warning issuance and when criteria is met (typically when 6 inches of snow was measured). This category is the average lead time of all the verified counties and unwarned counties. The maps above break down the lead time for each county.
| Lead Time | Points |
| 20+ hours | 8 |
| 15-19 hours | 6 |
| 10-14 hours | 4 |
| 5-9 hours | 2 |
| <5 hours | 0 |
| Actual: 42 hours | 8 |
Impact messaging
Significant impacts were predicted and the storm was labeled as potentially historic before it began. A number of social media posts went viral and the total reach on Facebook neared 3 million people.
The Minnesota State Patrol reported 558 crashes occurred statewide (64 with injury, 2 serious injuries, and 1 fatal), 1,058 vehicles off the road/spinouts, and 20 jackknifed semis.
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| First mention of an historic storm on social media. | MnDOT used their overhead signs to promote the Blizzard Warning. | Travel conditions during the afternoon of April 14th. Roads across southwest Minnesota were closed for much of the 14th. Hundreds of spinouts or accidents occurred |
| Impact messaging | Up to 4 points |
| Impacts were clearly conveyed and partners responded accordingly. Positive feedback was received. | 4 |
| Overall, impacts were conveyed well, but some impacts were over or underestimated. Mostly positive feedback was received. | 3 |
| Impacts could have been more clearly stated. Feedback was mixed. | 2 |
| Impacts were not clearly defined. Mostly negative feedback was received. | 1 |
| Impacts were opposite of what was forecast. Feedback was negative. | 0 |
| 4 |
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