SFO Marine Stratus Forecast

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115
FXUS66 KMTR 261202
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
502 AM PDT Wed Mar 26 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1245 AM PDT Wed Mar 26 2025

There`s a big shift in the weather today as the record breaking
heat is over and much cooler temperatures return. Several rounds of
rain are in the forecast over the next 7+ days as we enter a more
disturbed pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1245 AM PDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Our glimpse of summer weather was short lived with more seasonal
springtime temperatures returning today. The 00Z OAK sounding showed
an 850 mb temperature of ~16.4C which narrowly beats the previous
00Z record for March 26th (4PM March 25th) of 15.6C. This resulted
in record breaking warmth in the mid 80s to low 90s across the
region for the last two days. Why the change up to cooler
temperatures starting today? Well, the upper level ridge that has
been parked over the West Coast for the last few days is being
ejected eastward as an upper level trough and associated surface low
move in. The surface low will be located well to our north, closer
to Oregon and Washington, but a trailing cold front will extend
southward into Northern California. A look at forecast 850 mb
temperatures for today shows that they are expected to be around 10C
at 00Z March 27th (4PM March 26th). With cooler air being advected
into the Bay Area, temperatures will drop 15 to 20 degrees across
the region. For those wondering, how noticeable will this drop be?
Well, for example, Santa Rosa reached a high of 85 degrees yesterday
and is only forecast to reach a high of 64 degrees today. Farther
south, Hollister reached a high of 87 degrees yesterday and is
forecast to reach a high of 68 degrees today. This pattern holds
across the region with most locations expected to be in the 60s.

While the PNW is in for a rainy day as this low approaches,
residents of the Bay Area may see some precipitation Wednesday
ranging from light rain (North Bay) to drizzle (coastal areas south
of the Golden Gate Bridge). More rain from this system will arrive
Thursday with widespread light rain across the Bay Area. All in all,
the North Bay will see up to another 1" of rain from this storm and
areas south of the Golden Gate will see up to a quarter of an inch.
Winds will be locally gusty between 20 to 25 mph across the higher
elevations. The drop in temperatures and the return of rain are a
reminder that although summer is close, we aren`t quite there yet.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1245 AM PDT Wed Mar 26 2025

By Thursday a decaying cutoff low pressure system near the
Pacific Northwest will be located poleward of the jet stream. This
system will essentially stall while continuing to fill through
Friday, but will still have enough strength to continue pumping
moisture to the Bay Area. The North Bay will see the highest rain
totals, with up to 1/2" possible Friday. The rest of the Bay Area
will see anywhere from a few hundredths to 1/4 inch or so.
Overall, this will be a mostly beneficial event. Some light rain
will likely linger Friday morning and the skies will begin to
clear briefly late Friday or early Saturday. After a short break,
the next system moves in as a triple point low develops somewhere
near the Bay Area Sunday. Overall the rain amounts will be around
1/4" or so for most of the Bay Area and Central Coast, outside of
the usual rain shadows (San Jose, San Benito, etc.).

The most interesting part of the forecast continues to be around
this time next week. By Tuesday, there is a chance that the jet
stream will be taking direct aim at the Bay Area. However, the
uncertainty remains very high. A look at the cluster analysis
reveals that we have roughly equal chances of ridging as
troughing, and even then the orientation of the potential trough
isn`t clear. The trend has definitely been flatter with the 500
mb flow, which makes a true atmospheric river less likely. The
CW3E IVT forecast page shows a 60-70% chance of exceeding 250 IVT
along the coast on April 2, but less than a 25% chance of reaching
500 IVT. In summary, we are still expecting heavier rain next
week, but the impacts look more manageable lately. On the other
hand, it looks like there will be another round or two later in
the week. The first week of April looks wet. A multi-ensemble
analysis shows that in total by next Friday, SFO can receive
anywhere from 0.5" to 2.5" of rain, with the mean around 1.25". We
can handle that.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 445 AM PDT Wed Mar 26 2025

A deepening marine layer has brought IFR conditions to some
coastal terminals and continues to spread inland. With several
clear pockets in the stratus, the TAFs will be a challenge this
morning. By the afternoon, an approaching cold front will bring a
moderate southerly to southwesterly breeze and light rain,
particularly to the North Bay terminals. MVFR-IFR ceilings will
prevail before, during, and after frontal passage.

Vicinity of SFO...SFO and OAK are flirting with ceilings this
morning, and the clouds are filling in. The ceiling height will
likely settle around 700 to 900 feet based on surrounding
observations. SJC is more iffy, but has the best chance to dodge
IFR conditions this morning. A band of very light rain will roll
through this afternoon, but the more noticeable impact will be
strong SW winds before the front moves through overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO

Monterey Bay Terminals...There`s no escaping IFR conditions for
the next several hours, although the ceilings will likely lift
to MVFR around mid-day. In the afternoon, typical onshore winds
will pick-up and there is an outside chance for a few rain drops
this evening. Otherwise the approaching cold front will allow the
marine layer to deepen, likely allowing the ceilings to rise to
MVFR tomorrow night.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 445 AM PDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Foggy and drizzly conditions continue across the waters through
late this morning. Winds have shifted southerly with moderate to
fresh winds expected through the remainder of Wednesday before
shifting west to southwest and strengthening to a fresh to strong
breeze across the coastal waters Thursday. Seas will be moderate
to rough on Wednesday before conditions deteriorate with
widespread rough seas beginning early Thursday morning. Rough
seas continue into the weekend with unsettled conditions to
persist into next week as a series of storm systems move through
the region.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 445 AM PDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Multiple rounds of large incoming swell will create persistent
hazardous conditions at the beach and in the surf zone this week.
There is an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents
today. By Thursday morning, a new incoming swell will generate
large breaking waves up to 30 feet, in addition to enhanced rip
currents. Inexperienced swimmers should stay out of the water.
Beachgoers should maintain a further stand-off distance from the
water than normal. Stay off of jetties and rocks, keep pets on a
leash, wear a life jacket, and never turn your back on the ocean!

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1059 AM PDT Tue Mar 25 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Wednesday morning
for all Pacific Coast beaches. In addition to the cold water
shock risk that is always present, there will be an increased risk
for sneaker waves and rip currents. Observe the ocean for 20
minutes before you pick a spot on the beach, stay off of jetties
and rocks, keep pets on a leash, wear a life jacket, and never
turn your back on the ocean!

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 AM PDT this morning for CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.

High Surf Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 11 AM PDT Friday for
CAZ006-505-509-530.

Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Friday morning
for CAZ529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon
Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt
Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF
Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay-
Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Kennedy

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