A Pacific storm and atmospheric river will impact the Pacific Northwest states and northern Rockies this weekend, bringing locally heavy low elevations rain and heavy high elevation snow in the mountains. By Sunday over the Interior Northwest, rain combined with snowmelt will increase the risk of flood hazards. Flood Watches are in effect. Read More >
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045 FXUS66 KMTR 221640 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 840 AM PST Sat Feb 22 2025 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 229 AM PST Sat Feb 22 2025 Mainly dry weather is forecast through the period, with a general warming trend occuring. A few disturbances pass well to our north this weekend, which might bring some light rain to North Bay starting late Saturday and Sunday, and again on Monday. Mid to late week, an upper level low looks to form and cutoff somewhere over central or southern California. This may bring showers to the region, or favor more of the Central Coast depending on it`s placement. && .UPDATE... Issued at 838 AM PST Sat Feb 22 2025 Patches of stratus persist at the immediate coast with scattered high clouds over the rest of the region. The main forecast issues continue to be the warming trend for most of the forecast region through the next week, and the cut off low and resulting uncertainty that is expected towards the end of the next week. For now, the forecast remains unchanged. DialH && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 229 AM PST Sat Feb 22 2025 Picture from space this morning, shows a break between the high clouds over the region, showing pockets of stratus and fog along our coast and partially intruding into the North Bay region. Patchy fog and stratus will be possible for these areas this, and perhaps near Half Moon Bay and should mix out later this morning. Dry conditions will persist with a mix of mid and high level clouds. High temperatures look to be similar to yesterday`s. South Bay and Central Coast valleys should make it into the low to mid 70s, while other valleys rise into the mid 60s to near 70s. The coolest areas will be along the coast and in the mountains where highs top out in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 229 AM PST Sat Feb 22 2025 Near zonal upper level flow for much of the region, with weak upper level ridging just to our south over southern CA. A series of disturbances pass to our north. Rain is favored to the north of the service area, though the North Bay counties may squeak out a couple hundredths of an inch late Saturday into Sunday and again on Monday. Dry weather is expected to persist elsewhere during this period, with the warming and drying trend continuing. Upper level ridging build back in midweek, which should should maximize our temperature growth. Mid to late week, a cut off low forms over the eastern Pacific and moves eastwards towards California. Ensembles and deterministic data continue to favor it entering central or southern California. PoP chances have decreased for the Bay Area, while chances increased slightly for the Central Coast due to a slight shift south in the model and ensemble data. Will need to keep an eye on this as it could affect temperatures, and PoP values will likely deviate some as we get closer to the event. Behind it, upper level ridging noes into California briefly on Saturday, with a trough forming off to its west. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 229 AM PST Sat Feb 22 2025 Fair weather and VFR persists through the TAF period for most terminals. Patchy marine stratus this morning will give way to mostly clear skies below FL200. Otherwise, a mix of mid and high clouds continue across the region as a weak disturbance moves through aloft. Some marine stratus will make a return to some terminals around the Bay and coastal areas into Sunday morning, but confidence in cigs is low. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through today with a low chance for marine stratus Sunday morning. Included in TAF for now, but confidence is low on coverage inside the Bay. Otherwise winds remain relatively light and onshore. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Patchy FG around the Central Coast region this morning, mainly over the water at this point, but will be hard to tell via satellite given coverage of high clouds. Low confidence in LIFR/VLIFR cigs and vis thanks to the high clouds and isolated nature of the stratus this morning. Otherwise light onshore winds and mostly clear skies this afternoon. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 838 AM PST Sat Feb 22 2025 Winds and sea heights will remain relatively calm into early next week. A new, moderate northwesterly swell enters the waters by Tuesday of the upcoming week, causing seas to build up to 10 to 12 feet. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Behringer MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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