Thunderstorms, some severe, may produce heavy to excessive rainfall and isolated flooding over portions of the Southern Plains today and Saturday. Dry conditions, combined with gusty winds and low relative humidities will continue to support an elevated to critical fire weather threat in the Desert Southwest into to early next week. Read More >
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344 FXUS66 KMTR 260232 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 732 PM PDT Fri Apr 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1247 PM PDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Cool, cloudy, and for some, rainy conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours. Significant impacts due to rain or isolated storms are not anticipated. Some mountain top snow is also forecast across the Santa Lucia Range. Sunday and into next week appear rain-free with a slight warming trend. Thereafter, the upper air pattern may support opportunities for light rain next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday Night) Issued at 1247 PM PDT Fri Apr 25 -Short Term Key Messages *Cool and cloudy conditions *Showers and isolated thunderstorm chances *Mountain top light snow Showers will continue this afternoon and evening across southern portions of the Bay Area as well as the Central Coast. The primary culprit appears to be a couple of PV anomalies along the 2PVU surface rotating around the main upper low/trough. Rain will still remain on the "lighter" end and 12 hour rainfall amounts have largely tallied around a few hundredths of an inch across the region. As the main upper trough digs southward, we`ll see a re-invigoration of marine showers that will slide eastward. Guidance has been rather insistent on the Big Sur Coastline being the favored region for convection and given the range in the forecast, I`ll nudge PoPs upward. As the upper low continues to pinwheel down the Central Coast, some modest 850-700mb WAA or trough of warm air aloft may result in some precipitation across the North Bay early Saturday morning. Currently, the greatest PoPs reside down across the Central Coast with rain chances ranging from 60-70% with PoPs around 30-50% across the North Bay. This leaves the heart of the Bay Area in a minimum PoP wise, but even here, a few sprinkles or light showers will remain possible (albeit around 20%). As far as the potential for isolated thunderstorms, this remains a possibility, though the probability is diminishing. Forecast soundings indicate lapse rates may not be quite as steep (likely do to some slight shifts in the location of the coldest air aloft), but still supportive of more vigorous showers with a few isolated lightning strikes. For now, have confined the risk for a few storms to southern Monterey and San Benito counties. At this time, widespread severe weather is not anticipated, but brief bouts of accumulating hail may result in slick driving conditions. There still remains an opportunity for some snow across the higher terrain of the Santa Lucia Range and potentially portions of the Diablo Range. Overall, not anticipating much in the way of significant impacts due to snow. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1247 PM PDT Fri Apr 25 2025 -Long Term Key Messages *Lingering rain chances on Sunday Morning *Modest warming trend, `Minor` HeatRisk next week A slight change to the long term forecast and there now remains a potential (20-30% chance ) for lingering precipitation after sunrise Sunday. As the upper low departs, large scale ascent should ramp down. However, low level moisture remains plentiful and there`s still an opportunity for largely light drizzle with some breezy conditions (10-20 mph wind gusts) as the surface pressure gradient remains a little tight. Longer term model projections support a handful of days that will be dominated by shortwave ridging. This will mean a gradual warming trend, with "minor" HeatRisk returning. This type of heat isn`t overly impactful, except to those that are exceptionally sensitive to heat (very young and elderly). As we progress into the first weekend of May, there are some signs that the pattern evolve such that a couple of upper troughs slide through the area. This may mean additional rain chances in the day 8-10 time frame according to a couple of the ensemble clusters. For now, we`ll hold serve with a largely rain-free forecast given the time of year and the consensus of a dry period among a majority of the NWP. Of course, early May rains will be beneficial as it pertains to delaying the start of our dry/spring fire season. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 700 PM PDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Scattered light rain continues this evening as an upper level low tracks south along the California coastline this evening. VFR is expected to prevail, with some cigs lowering to MVFR if a shower passes overt the terminal. Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the overnight with occasional drops to MVFR if/when a shower passes over the terminal, especially early Saturday morning when an increase in rain coverage around the Bay Area is possible. VFR is expected for the remainder of the TAF period from Saturday afternoon onward. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Rain coverage is expected to gradually increase across the Monterey Bay area overnight into early Saturday morning but still be scattered in nature. There is slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm, but confidence is too low for mention in the TAF. Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the forecast period with occasional cig drops into MVFR if a rain shower moves over any of the terminals. .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 842 AM PDT Fri Apr 25 2025 A chilly upper level low arriving from the northwest will result in scattered showers across the coastal waters and bays today through Sunday morning. Gusty northwest winds and rough seas return across the northern outer coastal waters late Saturday. Dry weather returns early next week due to an eastward moving high pressure system over the Pacific. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bain LONG TERM....Bain AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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