AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1044 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front passes early Thursday morning. High pressure 
begins to nose in from the west Thursday night. A series of 
weak cold fronts or troughs will then move across the area on 
Friday, followed by high pressure building in from the west 
through Saturday night. The highs moves offshore on Sunday with 
a frontal system passing through the area Sunday night into 
Monday. High pressure then builds in through the middle of next 
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front approaches from the NW tonight. Clouds were 
associated a weak mid-level shortwave rounding the top of the 
offshore ridge. Airmass remains very dry with limited moisture. 

Increased cloud coverage for the rest of the night. Raised min
temperatures by a degree. Slight adjustments with hourly
dewpoints and temperatures. Added in a chance of rain sprinkles
late tonight. A few CAMs were showing some signals of very 
light rain with small magnitude areas of reflectivity traversing
the local region. HREF probabilities for trace or greater of
rain indicated chances across parts of the region late tonight.
However, noting dry low levels in forecast soundings, expecting
no more than a trace of rain and this would be spotty in 
coverage.

The cold front is expected to pass Thursday morning. Clouds 
clear following the front with sunny skies returning Thursday
afternoon. 

SW to W winds overnight will continue to diminish. Post-frontal
passage, NW winds will start to pick up midday and remain 
elevated through the evening with gusts peaking around 20-25 
mph. 

Overnight lows will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s. As far as high
minimum temperatures records are concerned, there is a chance
two climate sites could tie their previous high minimum
temperature record for November 6th, Bridgeport CT and LaGuardia
NY. See climate section for more details. Other climate sites
have already set lows for November 6th that are less than the
respective record max low temperatures.

Highs Thursday will be slightly cooler in the low/mid-70s. 
Possibly only limited to the upper-60s in parts of the Lower 
Hudson Valley due to the earlier arrival of the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Winds will quickly wind down early Thursday night as the cold front 
exits and high pressure noses in from the west. Under clear skies 
and light NW flow, conditions will be optimal for radiational 
cooling Thursday night. Lows will  in the low-50s for NYC metro, 40s 
for most of the area, and upper/mid-30s in the LI Pine Barrens and 
far northern interior locations. Frost development looks possible 
for interior areas and the LI Pine Barrens.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points:

*A brief cool down on Saturday with temperatures returning to
 above normal levels for Sunday into Monday, then back to normal
 for the middle of next week.

*Widespread light rain likely late Sunday into Monday as a
 frontal system moves through.

An upper trough digging across eastern Canada and into the
Northeast on Friday will send a series of cold fronts and/or 
troughs through the area with cold advection through Saturday 
morning. This will briefly return temperatures to normal levels
on Saturday. West winds will be gusty on Friday up to 30 mph.
For winds, stayed above the deterministic National Blend of 
Models (NBM) based on latest 12Z operational run and trend in 
the short term. It also is typically deficient in W/NW flow
events. This will likely enhance the spread of any wildfires
that may develop. See fire weather section below.

A warmup then ensues Sunday into Monday as a highly amplified 
ridge builds across the east with the upper low departing 
across the Northeast and a vigorous upper low lifting out of 
the Central Plains. In addition, there is chance for a mainly 
light rainfall event, but well needed, Sunday night into Monday.
Overrunning rains will push in late Sunday afternoon/early 
evening and continue through the overnight, ending from west to 
east with a cold frontal passage on Monday. For timing, leaned 
toward conditions drying out quicker on Monday versus the 
deterministic NBM. This is supported by the 12Z ensemble trends 
and the NBM median (50th percentile). Temperatures heading into
Monday will be about 10 degrees above normal. Behind the cold 
front Monday, a downward trend will begin with temperatures 
close to normal by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front approaches tonight and moves across early Thursday
morning.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Only
exception would be early Thursday with potential for MVFR
stratus near 3 kft, near 12-16Z. Current TAFs have stratus 
ceilings higher, near 3.5 to 4 kft, keeping VFR conditions
with higher ceilings in the mid to late afternoon.

Wind speeds tonight near 5-10 kts. Winds increase to 10-12 kt
Thursday with gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon before 
diminishing to less than 10 kts Thursday night. Wind direction
initially SW this evening, then more westerly overnight and NW
for Thursday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...  

Low chance for Thursday morning MVFR stratus.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday Night: VFR. NW wind gusts diminishing in the evening.

Friday: VFR. W winds G15-20 kt in the morning, G20-25 kt in 
the afternoon, gusts close to 20 kt at night.

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: Mainly VFR for the morning, then a chance of MVFR or
lower in rain showers for the afternoon, becoming likely at 
night.

Monday: MVFR becoming VFR. Rain showers probable to likely in 
the morning, tapering off in the afternoon. SW-W winds G15-20
kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component 
forecasts, can be found at: 
https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Buoy 44097 still has readings of near 6 ft this evening, left
SCA up for ocean waters from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point.

SCA advisory remains up on the ocean waters east of Fire Island
inlet through midnight, mainly for lingering seas around 5 ft. 

Waves remain below SCA criteria through Thursday night. However, 
following a frontal passage Thursday morning, 25 kt gusts are 
possible on ocean waters Thursday afternoon and evening. For 
now, the forecast calls for gusts just below 25 kts, so have 
opted against issuance of a SCA, at this time. 

Westerly winds ramp up on Friday as low pressure passes to the 
north across eastern Canada with SCA gusts possible on all 
waters through Friday night. Ocean seas east of Moriches Inlet 
may linger around 5 ft into Saturday morning. Sub-SCA conditions
are then forecast into Sunday, but a strengthening SW flow 
Sunday night into Monday may produce marginal SCA conditions on 
the ocean waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
For Thursday, minimum RH values will be around 40-50% with winds 
gusts around 20 mph in the afternoon. Even though the RH is high, 
very dry fine fuels combined with breezy winds could still lead to
elevated fire growth potential.

Conditions worsen on Friday with minimum RH values of 25-35 
percent and west winds gusting up to 30 mph. A Red Flag Warning
may be needed due to the stronger winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next 
week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record maximum low temperatures for 11/6: 

BDR: 62/2022, 62/2015 

Bridgeport already has a low for 11/6/24 of 62 at 703AM
Wednesday. If temperature does not drop below 62 before 
midnight, the record max low temperature will be tied.

LGA: 65/2015 

LaGuardia already has a low for 11/6/24 of 65 at 450AM
Wednesday. If temperature does not drop below 65 before
midnight, the record max low temperature will be tied.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/BR/DW
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/BR/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BR/DW
CLIMATE...