AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
740 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches the region late today, crossing tonight.
High pressure builds over the northeast Sunday into Monday. A
frontal system then moves across the region Monday night into
Tuesday. High pressure returns for Wednesday and Thursday with
potential of another frontal system for the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Unseasonably warm temperatures (15 to 20 degrees above
normal) areawide today, particularly away from southern and
eastern coast, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
* Isolated late day thunderstorms with strong wind gusts
possible, mainly N&W of NYC/NJ metro.
* Cold water submersion dangers for recreational boaters,
canoers or kayakers this weekend with warm air temperatures,
but water temps remaining in the 40s.
East coast upper ridging holds strong today, giving way to an
amplifying northern stream shortwave/closed low tracking east
from eastern Ontario into Quebec tonight. At the surface, a
developing low pressure system takes a similar track today,
intensifying under the upper low tonight, while high pressure
remains anchored off the SE US coast.
In between, a deep SW flow of subtropical origin air continues to
stream into the NE US today, with strong SW surface flow (15-25g25-
35mph) developing later this morning into afternoon as area is
squeezed between SE Canadian low pressure and elongated Atlantic
high pressure to the south. High-res guidance indicating flow
backing more to the WSW away from southern and eastern coastal
areas. Potential for a few peak winds gusts to 40 mph in the
warmest areas in the late afternoon as llj strengthens ahead of
approaching cold front.
850 mb temps have trended a degree or so slightly warmer than
24 hrs ago. With WSW flow and mixing towards 850mb away from
southern and eastern coasts, and unseasonably warm temps aloft
(+1-2 STD 850mb temps), have continued to lean to NBM 50-75th
percentile and HRRR. With temps already starting near seasonable
highs this morning, widespread high temps in the upper 70s to
mid 80s are expected away from southern and eastern coastal
areas (greater maritime influence). This will result in temps
approaching records for the date for a few spots. NBM
deterministic is still generally running in the lower 25th
quartile of guidance for max temps today, which appears to be
low based on the anomalously warm airmass.
A few high based sprinkles early this morning, otherwise high-
res guidance signaling the weakening remnants of MCS activity
over the Ohio Valley early this morning potentially bringing a
few showers to far NW portions of the Tri- State late
morning/early afternoon along with approaching/developing pre-
frontal trough. Strong shear profiles and some weak elevated
instability warrant slight chance pops. More likely is this
activity weakening, but bringing an increase in convective
debris to filter sunshine this afternoon, which could limit max
heating potential.
A distinct but inconsistent signal for a line of broken
convection developing along/ahead of approaching cold front over
western/central NY/PA this afternoon, and/or a series of
convective line segments developing out ahead off previous MCS
activity, moving into the region this late today/this evening.
With weak and waning instability over the coastal plain this
evening, and best forcing still well to the N&W, this convection
will likely be weakening as it enters the region. But with
strong deep layer shear, and relatively steep mid-level lapse
rates realizing weak elevated CAPE, this will bring potential
for scattered shra/tsra late today/this evening for areas well
N&W of NYC, likely weakening to isolated activity as it slide to
the coast. Severe weather is not expected, but any
thunderstorms could produce strong wind gusts based on strong
low-level winds and steep low-level lapse rates.
Cold front pushes south of the entire region by midnight, with a
windshift to the NW advecting in a much cooler and drier airmass.
Temps will remain unseasonably mild for this time of year with mixed
low-levels (mid to upper 40s interior to lower to mid 50s coast)
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Much cooler but still above normal temps on Sunday (High is
the lower to upper 60s).
* Below seasonable temperatures on Monday.
Vigorous northern stream closed low slides east through the
Canadian Maritimes on Sunday into Sunday Night, with southern
upper ridging building back towards the region Sunday Night into
Monday. At the surface, a cold front pushes well south of the
region by Sunday AM, with weak Canadian high pressure building
in Sunday Night and sliding east on Monday.
Overall gusty NW winds 10-20G20-30mph, drier and much cooler
conds expected Sunday. Temps will still run several degrees
above normal with unseasonably mild start to the day and deep
mixing and plenty of sunshine in a gradual caa regime. Have
stayed close to NBM 50th for temps based on the above, which has
a better representation of warmer temps along the coast in NW
flow than the NBM deterministic. Temps in the lower to mid 60s
interior and mid to upper 60s for city/coast.
Canadian high pressure noses in Sunday Night with potential for
good radiational cooling conds for pine barrens of LI and
interior Tri-State with temps dropping into the lower to mid 30s
and bringing frost conditions. 40s elsewhere for the
city/coast..
Meanwhile, a vigorous closed upper low over the SW US lifts
through the central plains on Sunday and into the upper Great
Lakes on Monday, with a resultant low pressure system taking a
similar track, and associated warn front approaching Monday
Night.
A strengthening return SE flow develops Monday as high pressure
slides offshore. Maritime flow off mid 40 degree waters, and
developing/ne advecting stratus under a strong low-level
inversion, will likely result in temps running a few degrees
below seasonable across the region on Monday, from mid 50s along
southern and eastern coasts to around 60 interior.
LLJ will strengthen ahead of approaching trailing cold/occluded
front Monday Night, with warm front approaching and entering the
region just ahead of it. Modest theta-e advection and lift over this
boundary will bring potential for scattered showers Monday Night.
Limited forcing and moisture will keep QPF light.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
There has been little change to the overall forecast thinking in
the long term and have stuck close to the previous forecast/NBM.
The long term period starts off with a chance of showers on Tuesday,
mainly in the morning with as a cold front approaches and move
across the region during the afternoon/evening hours. Thereafter,
weak high pressure remains over the region Wednesday and Thursday.
The high moves east on Friday, with another shortwave/low pressure
system approaching for late Friday into the weekend. Mainly looking
at just chance POPs (30-35 percent) late Friday into the weekend
for now.
The warmest day of the week will be Tuesday with highs in the NYC/NJ
metro area reaching the upper 70s. The remainder of the region will
see highs in the 60s and lower to middle 70s. Mid 60s to mid 70s can
be expected Wednesday and Thursday, and 60s and lower 70s for Friday
and Saturday. Locations right along the immediate coast will likely
see slightly cooler temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A warm front will continue to lift through the area this
morning. A cold front approaches from the west today, and moves
across the area this evening and overnight.
Mainly a VFR forecast outside of any isolated to scattered
showers and/or thunderstorms. Best chance for any showers or
thunder will be after 21Z. PROB30 was used to highlight this
chance. The best chance for any thunder will be north and west
of NYC and will only include in the KSWF TAF.
Winds start off around 10kt or less, but winds are expected to
increase this morning. WSW-SW will increase to 12-20kt G22-30kt
by late morning into early afternoon. Winds shift to the W then
NW with the cold frontal passage. Gust end for a period
overnight, but pick up once again between 10z-12z Sunday morning
with gusts into the mid 20kt range.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Can not rule out a peak gust above 30kt.
Chance of an isolated thunderstorm Saturday evening.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: VFR. NW wind gusts around 20kt possible.
Monday: VFR, then sub VFR possible at night with a chance of showers.
Tuesday: Becoming VFR with W winds.
Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
After a brief lull in SCA winds early this morning, SCA wind gusts
expected to develop on all water this morning and continue through
this afternoon. Ocean seas build to 5 to 8 ft today.
Nearshore winds should subside below SCA this evening, with
potential for a brief burst of marginal SCA gusts in wake of cold
front between 03z and 08z tonight. Otherwise winds should subside
below SCA on the ocean late in the evening (after 03z).
Sub SCA winds then expected on all waters Sunday through Monday as
high pressure moves across the waters, but southerly SCA ocean
swells may take until Sunday afternoon to fall below 5ft.
Marginal SCA conditions possible on the ocean waters Monday Night
into Tuesday morning ahead of cold frontal passage. Otherwise,
conditions will remain below SCA levels Tuesday afternoon
through Friday with a relatively weak pressure gradient over the
waters.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Marginally elevated wildfire spread threat today and Monday.
Dry conditions remain. There is potential for scattered showers
N&W of NYC this evening, and isolated showers elsewhere. A
widespread wetting rain is not expected.
Highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with southwest winds of 15 to
25 mph with gusts 25 to 35 mph and min RH values in the 35 to 45
percent range.
Highs in the 60s on Sunday, with northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph
with gusts 20 to 30 mph and min RH values in the mid 20 percent
range.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic issues through next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temps for Today April 19th. Temps will approach
records at BDR, LGA, JFK, ISP.
EWR...92
BDR...82
NYC...92
LGA...85
JFK...84
ISP...82
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-340.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ335-
338-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/NV
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/NV
CLIMATE...
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