AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
736 AM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area today and weaken tonight into 
Saturday morning. A warm front lifts through late Saturday ahead of 
a complex frontal system that impacts the area Sunday through
early Monday. High pressure will return later Monday into 
Tuesday, before moving offshore on Wednesday. Another frontal 
system will approach on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to account
for the latest observations and trends of temperature and dew 
point through the morning.

A ridge of high pressure over the area this morning will more firmly 
establish itself over the area today as a weak wave of low pressure 
moves to the east of the area. Extensive low stratus over the area 
this morning should slowly dissipate through the day as high 
pressure builds overhead. Highs today will be in the low 50s along 
the coast to middle to upper 50s for the interior and NYC 
metro. 

The high pressure weakens tonight as a light S/SE flow develops, 
advecting low level moisture back into the area. This will result in 
areas of drizzle and fog late tonight and into Saturday morning. 
Lows tonight will be in the middle 30s to low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
By Saturday, an approaching complex frontal system will begin to 
impact the area. In addition to the extensive cloud cover and 
morning drizzle and fog, a warm front will approach from the south 
and move through late Saturday. This will continue to increase low 
level moisture in the area, possibly such that a few light rain 
showers may develop with the warm frontal passage. Highs Saturday 
will be in the 50s.

As the complex frontal system approaches from the west Saturday 
night, southerly flow increases substantially overnight Saturday and 
into Sunday morning. The area will be entrenched in a breezy 
southerly flow during the day on Sunday, perhaps with surface gusts 
upwards of 35-45 mph, though an inversion will prevent the strongest 
winds from the LLJ from reaching the surface. Despite the proximity 
to the approaching system, it's possible that much of the day Sunday 
will be dry as the area will remain in the warm sector of the 
complex frontal system. High temperatures Sunday will be in the 60s 
for much of the area, though coastal areas may remain in the 50s 
with an onshore flow off a cool ocean keep temperatures a bit more 
moderated.

The cold front approaches the area from the west late Sunday 
afternoon and into the evening. Given the ample moisture ahead of 
the front, rain is expected to be at least moderate to possibly 
locally heavy in intensity. Some elevated instability may result in 
isolated thunder as the frontal system slowly moves through the area 
Sunday night. The front continues to progress through the area into 
Monday morning with some residual showers remaining possible for the 
area on Monday, though the reduction in the pressure gradient should 
allow the winds to relax a bit. Showers should come to an end from 
west to east on Monday before pushing east by Monday afternoon. 
Total rainfall amounts are expected to be generally 1-1.5 inches 
with the higher totals expected along the coast and to the east of 
the area. Locally upwards of 2 inches of rainfall is possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridging aloft with high pressure at the surface will keep the region 
dry Monday night through Wednesday night. A cold front then 
approaches on Thursday with good agreement among the global models 
that the front passes through sometime during Thursday night. 
Therefore, better chances of showers at night versus the day with 
PoPs capped at 50 percent being that this is a week away.

Temperatures through the long term will be above normal with highs 
mainly mid and upper 50s for much of Long Island and Coastal CT, and 
60s elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure over the area slowly shifts east through tonight.

MVFR cigs and light NE winds through the morning push, then VFR
developing from approx 14-16z with winds shifting SE soon 
after at 5-10kt. MVFR cigs return tonight after 01-03z with 
light winds.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing for improvement to VFR this morning and return to MVFR
this evening may be off by 1-2 hours. Chance that IFR vsbys do 
not develop late tonight/Saturday morning, but IFR cigs are also
possible for the same time period.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: MVFR cigs with a chance of IFR vsbys and cigs during 
the morning push, then VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers during 
the afternoon.

Saturday night: MVFR with a chance of showers. S winds 
G20-30kt.

Sunday: MVFR with showers and LLWS mainly in the afternoon.
Chance of showers. S winds G25-35kt.

Sunday night: MVFR/IFR in rain/showers, a thunderstorm possible.
LLWS and S winds G30-40kt. Winds becoming SW and diminishing 
late. 

Monday: Sub VFR possible in AM, otherwise becoming VFR. Showers 
ending west to east during the afternoon. W winds AM, shifting NW 
PM with G20kt possible through the day.

Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA on the ocean will continue through the afternoon today with 
waves around 5 feet. Sub-SCA is then expected on all waters through 
Saturday. By Saturday night, an increase in southerly winds will 
allow wave heights to build above 5 feet on the ocean. By Sunday 
morning, widespread gales are possible on all waters, but most 
likely for the ocean with gusts 35-40 kt. The cold front moves 
through the area Sunday night which allows the gusts to reduce to 
SCA and eventually sub-SCA by Monday morning, but elevated wave 
heights on the ocean will allow SCA conditions to continue there 
through at least Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A widespread 1-1.5 inch rainfall event is likely from late 
Sunday into the first half of Monday, with a 10-20 percent 
chance (reasonable worst case scenario) of up to 2 inches. At 
this time only localized minor nuisance/urban type flooding is 
anticipated.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MW