AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
108 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure drifts across the area today. A frontal system
impacts the area Friday. High pressure builds in from Southeast
Canada Saturday through early Sunday. Then, high pressure moves
out into the Atlantic with a frontal system moving across the 
area Sunday into Monday. High pressure will then return 
thereafter into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast on track with just minor adjustments to reflect 
current observations. Winds continue to decrease this afternoon 
as high pressure ridges across the cwa. Expect a mostly sunny 
afternoon. The NBM was used for temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upr low emerging from invof the 4 corners tracks across the
country today and allows weak low pres to track along a nearly
stationary boundary. The 00Z modeling suggests this boundary
sets up in or near the cwa. Although warm air surging in aloft
will preclude snow chances, the weak flow should allow the
shallow cold air near the sfc to remain in place, gradually
warming from the top down or due to proximity to the ocean thru
the day on Fri. Only trace amounts of fzra are needed for an
advy, so one has been issued for the nwrn portion of the cwa for
Fri mrng. There is the chc it could be extended a bit further S,
especially for interior NJ zones, if the next round of modeling
produces higher confidence. This area of higher uncertainty was
included in the hwo. Otherwise, periods of cold rain on Fri. 
Derived temps from modeled dewpoints blended with the NAMNest. 
This keeps things a bit colder than the NBM. Most likely spot 
for a surge of warmer air is LI if the front sets up over or N 
of the island. 

The pcpn tapers off Fri ngt. Due to the position of the sys, 
llvl cold air may drain back into the area, resulting in light 
fzra/fzdz and sleet, perhaps ending as a very brief period of 
light snow. Expect snow amounts to be insignificant attm, but 
there could be enough cold air drainage for refreezing along
with fzra/fzdz impacts, particularly across the interior. Most 
of the pcpn Fri ngt looks to be light with the dry slot across 
the cwa. Low temps Fri ngt close to the NBM with local
adjustments.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid level quasi-zonal flow returns to the area with slight ridging 
for this weekend. At the surface, an area of high pressure will 
build into the area from Southeast Canada for Saturday into early 
Sunday. Eventually this high pressure area shifts towards the Gulf 
of Maine later Sunday and eventually out into the Atlantic for 
Sunday night into Monday.

The mid levels have a shortwave traversing the local area Sunday 
night with otherwise the nearly-zonal flow continuing into the next 
week. At the surface, a frontal system moves north of the area 
Sunday night into early Monday. Its associated warm front moves 
across Sunday night with the associated cold front to follow Monday 
into Monday night. More precipitation is possible Sunday night, 
wintry mix for interior area, mainly rain along the coast. Moisture 
appears limited with this system and forcing will be displaced well 
north of the area, so max POPs are mostly in the chance, near 40 
to 50 percent Sunday night into early Monday.

High pressure then returns heading into the middle of next week. 
Another frontal system approaches for Wednesday afternoon through 
Wednesday night. With wet bulb cooling, forecast has this system 
potentially with some snow for the region. Kept POPS at chance for 
snow.

Forecast high temperatures are mostly near normal except for 
Monday when temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 40s for 
much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure over the area drifts offshore late in the day and
through tonight. Low pressure approaches from the west late
tonight through Friday. A warm front nears the coast during
Friday.

VFR until early Friday morning, then conditions quickly lower to
MVFR and then IFR and LIFR as precipitation begins. Mainly rain
is expected, with a period of light freezing rain at KSWF early
Friday morning. There is a low chance of a brief period of
freezing rain at KTEB and KHPN at the beginning of
precipitation, and with low chances and confidence did not
include in the forecast.

Northwest winds 10-15 kt may be occasionally gusty up to 20 kt 
until 21Z/22Z. Winds then back to W and SW before becoming S
early this evening. A south to southwest flow continues into 
Friday morning. Friday morning winds becoming light and variable
across the terminals.


     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments through late tonight. Amendments
likely late tonight into Friday for timing of onset of
precipitation, rain, and lowering conditions.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday afternoon - Friday night: IFR to LIFR with rain. A
rain/snow mix possible as the precipitation ends late at night.
Becoming MVFR to VFR toward Saturday morning across western
terminals.

Saturday: Becoming VFR in the morning.

Sunday: VFR during the day, a chance of MVFR or lower 
conditions at night, with a wintry mix, possibly becoming all
rain along the coast.

Monday - Tuesday: VFR. 

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, 
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds continue to diminish today. A SCA has been issued for all
waters for today, although it is possible that the non-ocean 
waters could end a bit early. Winds and seas come up late tngt 
into Fri mrng as a frontal sys passes, so a SCA may be needed, 
especially on the ocean for building seas. Winds diminish Fri 
ngt, but seas look to remain aoa 5 ft on the ocean.

Ocean seas start on small craft levels for Saturday through Saturday 
night. The seas then are forecast to go below SCA levels for the 
rest of the weekend and into early next week. SCA level wind gusts 
forecast for the ocean Saturday. Then, wind gusts are forecast to 
remain below SCA thresholds through the rest of the weekend, with 
potential return of SCA wind gusts for early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next 
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EST Friday for 
     CTZ005-006.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EST Friday for 
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM