Great Falls, MT

Weather Forecast Office

Montana Fire Weather Decision Support Site

Fire Weather Forecast:

166
FNUS55 KTFX 120941
FWFTFX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for North-Central Montana
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
241 AM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Expect breezy conditions over the next couple days with wind
gusts up to 35 mph along the plains and up to 50 mph along the
Rocky Mountain Front. Generally dry conditions will persist
across much of the region through Thursday evening with the
exception of the higher elevations along the divide which will
see a chance for snow through most of the week. Above normal
temperatures will continue through the week with cooler and
wetter conditions expected by the weekend.

MTZ112-122330-
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
241 AM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature.......42-50...33-42 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......6 degrees down...13 degrees down higher
elevations.
* Min Humidity..........39-49 percent...53-63 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......11 percent up...17 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Very windy. West winds 35 to 40 mph.
Ridges.............Very windy. West winds 30 to 40 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....3 very low.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
* Min Temperature.......23-30.
24 hr trend......7 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........69-79 percent.
24 hr trend......1 percent up...6 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Very windy. Southwest winds around 35 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. Southwest winds 30 to 35 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature.......45-52...36-42 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......1 degree up.
* Min Humidity..........37-47 percent...50-60 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......1 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. South winds 20 to 30 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. South winds 20 to 30 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.THURSDAY...Very windy. Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow.
Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the upper 40s. Southwest winds
around 40 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the lower
40s. West winds 20 to 25 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain and snow. Lows
in the lower 20s. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds 20 to
25 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows in the lower 20s.
Highs in the lower 40s.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain and snow. Lows in
the mid 20s. Highs in the upper 30s.

$$

MTZ113-122330-
Hill and Blaine Counties-
241 AM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny.
* Max Temperature.......48-53...39-44 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......2 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........37-47 percent...48-56 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......24 percent down...18 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. West winds 20 to 25 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. West winds around 25 mph decreasing
to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low (Above 3000 feet)...mid level
haines 5 moderate (Below 3000 feet).

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Min Temperature.......24-31.
24 hr trend......10 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........70-80 percent.
24 hr trend......11 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. West winds around 25 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 20 to 25 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature.......48-54...41-46 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......3 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........31-39 percent.
24 hr trend......3 percent down...12 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...South winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............South winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low (Above 3000 feet)...mid level
haines 5 moderate (Below 3000 feet).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the mid
50s. Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the upper
40s. West winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow. Lows in the
mid 20s. Highs in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the mid
40s.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain and snow. Lows in
the mid 20s. Highs in the lower 40s.

$$

MTZ114-122330-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
241 AM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Chance of snow in the
afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......41-50...27-37 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......11 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........38-48 percent...63-73 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......7 percent up...13 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Very windy. Southwest winds around 40 mph
becoming west around 30 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Strong winds. West winds around 45 mph
decreasing to around 35 mph in the afternoon.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................10 percent.
* High Level Haines.....3 very low.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Min Temperature.......23-30.
24 hr trend......4 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........61-71 percent...71-81 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......1 percent down...6 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph.
Ridges.............Very windy. Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Chance of snow in the
afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......46-52...32-42 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......1 degree up.
* Min Humidity..........35-45 percent...53-63 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......3 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. Southwest winds 25 to 30 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. Southwest winds 25 to 30 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.THURSDAY...Strong winds. Mostly cloudy. Snow likely and chance
of rain. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid 40s. Southwest
winds around 45 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of snow. Lows in the mid
20s. Highs around 40. West winds 20 to 25 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows in the lower 20s.
Highs in the mid 30s. Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows in the lower 20s.
Highs in the upper 30s.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow and slight chance of
rain. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the mid 30s.

$$

MTZ115-122330-
Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
241 AM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain in the
morning.
* Max Temperature.......46-52...38-44 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......6 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........36-43 percent...43-53 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......9 percent up...16 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 20 to 25 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 20 to 25 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low (Above 3000 feet)...mid level
haines 4 low (Below 3000 feet).

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Min Temperature.......25-31.
24 hr trend......9 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........61-71 percent.
24 hr trend......2 percent down...8 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. Southwest winds 25 to 30 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. Southwest winds 25 to 30 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature.......50-55...42-48 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......3 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........26-36 percent.
24 hr trend......10 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...South winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............South winds 15 to 20 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low (Above 3000 feet)...mid level
haines 4 low (Below 3000 feet).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.THURSDAY...Windy. Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in
the mid 50s. Southwest winds around 25 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain and snow. Lows in
the upper 20s. Highs in the mid 40s. Southwest winds 10 to
15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow. Lows in the
upper 20s. Highs in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the mid
40s.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain and snow. Lows in
the upper 20s. Highs in the lower 40s.

$$

MTZ116-122330-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
241 AM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy then becoming mostly sunny.
Slight chance of snow.
* Max Temperature.......37-42...28-37 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......17 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........50-60 percent...61-71 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......22 percent up...27 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 25 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. West winds 15 to 25 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................10 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Min Temperature.......20-25.
24 hr trend......4 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........74-84 percent.
24 hr trend......11 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of snow in the
afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......42-48...33-42 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......8 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........39-46 percent...46-56 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......14 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.THURSDAY...Windy. Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows in the
upper 20s. Highs in the upper 30s. Southwest winds around 30 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows in the lower 20s.
Highs in the lower 30s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Snow likely. Lows in the lower 20s.
Highs in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows around 19. Highs in
the lower 30s.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Snow likely. Lows around 20. Highs in
the upper 20s.

$$

MTZ117-122330-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
241 AM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Chance of snow in the
morning.
* Max Temperature.......41-51...32-42 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......14 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........38-48 percent...50-60 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......6 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. West winds 25 to 30 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. West winds 25 to 30 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Min Temperature.......21-31.
24 hr trend......7 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........62-72 percent.
24 hr trend......2 percent down...8 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. Southwest winds 25 to 30 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. Southwest winds 25 to 30 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature.......43-53...34-44 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......13 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........35-45 percent.
24 hr trend......4 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. Southwest winds 25 to 30 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. Southwest winds 25 to 30 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.THURSDAY...Very windy. Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.
Highs in the mid 40s. Southwest winds around 40 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow and slight chance of
rain. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs around 40. South winds 15 to
20 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Snow likely and chance of rain. Lows
in the mid 20s. Highs in the mid 30s. Northwest winds 20 to
25 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the
upper 30s.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow and slight chance of
rain. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the mid 30s.

$$

MTZ118-122330-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National
Forest-
241 AM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy then becoming mostly sunny.
Slight chance of snow in the morning.
* Max Temperature.......39-47...30-39 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......11 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........48-58 percent.
24 hr trend......15 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 20 to 25 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. West winds 20 to 25 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................10 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Min Temperature.......20-27.
24 hr trend......9 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........70-80 percent.
24 hr trend......26 percent down...13 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature.......40-48...32-42 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Min Humidity..........41-51 percent.
24 hr trend......Unchanged...7 percent down higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. South winds 25 to 30 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. South winds 25 to 30 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.THURSDAY...Windy. Partly cloudy. Lows around 30. Highs in the
mid 40s. Southwest winds around 30 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow and rain. Lows in the mid
20s. Highs in the upper 30s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Snow and rain likely. Lows in the mid
20s. Highs in the mid 30s. Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of snow. Lows around 19.
Highs in the mid 30s.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows in the lower 20s.
Highs in the lower 30s.

$$

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786
FXUS65 KTFX 121723
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1023 AM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mountain snow with rain/snow mix at lower elevations through
this morning.

- Breezy winds expected through most of the week with the
strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front.

- A more widespread storm system expected Friday and Saturday
with details remaining uncertain at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 447 AM MST Tue Nov 12 2024/

- Meteorological Overview:

An upper level trough will continue to make its way across the
intermountain west today. The result will be some mountain snow
and lower elevation rain/snow across the continental divide and
portions of southwestern Montana. Behind the trough, weak ridging
briefly sets up with a weak disturbance forming along the Rockies
Wednesday into Thursday allowing for just enough of a chance for
snow in along the divide while the rest of the region will remain
dry through the middle of the week. The next bigger event will be
towards the end of the week when a large trough comes onshore
Thursday and moves into the intermountain west by Friday morning.
This will bring the highest chance for widespread precipitation
across central and southwest Montana while bringing cooler
temperatures that will last through the remainder of the weekend.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Today: Looking at the probabilities and timing for the heaviest
snow, the most likely time for the heaviest snow will be between
now and 8 AM this morning with snow rates of around half an inch
per hour likely. Probabilities of an inch or more per hour, which
would be of greater concern along the mountain passes, has around
a 20% chance of occurring. It is also worth mentioning that the
20% probability only spans two hours over limited portions of
southwest Montana. Thus, while heavier snow rates cannot be ruled
out, confidence is not high enough to warrant any immediate
impact concerns outside of standard winter driving conditions.
Should heavier snow rates materialize and last longer than
currently forecasted, an advisory may be needed. But for now, no
headlines will be issued.

When looking at the potential for high winds, both temporally and
spatially, conditions look marginal over the next few days. The
probability of the strongest winds mixing down to the surface
remain below what would be considered ideal for issuing a warning.
That being said, an isolated high wind gust cannot be ruled out,
particularly for the Cut Bank area. However, with the likelihood
of high winds over a broad area for a longer duration remaining
low, there will be no headlines issued at this time.

Wednesday/Thursday: Confidence remains high for at least 2 inches
in the Glacier NP region and along higher elevations of the
divide. Otherwise, little to no precipitation is expected for
lower elevations with this round. The only potential impact will
be along Marias Pass which currently has a 40% chance of 2 or more
inches of snow and a 15% chance of 4 or more inches. Given the low
probabilities for snow amounts and low confidence in impacts,
there is no need to issue any products for this event.

Friday/Saturday: While confidence in troughing and a disturbance
moving through the area in general is high, there is still low
confidence in the exact outcome of the final round of winter
weather expected this week. Model runs continue to vary quite a
bit with some runs purging the snow completely in favor for rain
only for the next run to bring it right back. The highest
confidence for this part of the forecast period is that there will
be widespread precipitation across a good portion of central and
southwestern Montana. Where the rain/snow line sets up and how
long it takes before rain transitions to snow at lower elevations
will be two of the main questions to solve as we get closer to the
event. But anything more specific than that remains a bit
uncertain at this time. -thor

&&

.AVIATION...
12/18Z TAF Period

High level clouds will clear out throughout the afternoon hours,
except along the Continental Divide, where light precipitation
lingers through the afternoon. Stronger winds aloft will mix down
gusty west/southwest surface winds this afternoon across North
Central-MT, especially at KCTB. KCTB can see gusts of 35-45kts
throughout the afternoon. Winds decrease this evening, with winds
beginning to increase again in the late morning, primarily at
KEKS. -Wilson

The KWYS TAF will not be issued until airport operations resume next
spring.

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 50 30 53 39 / 10 0 0 0
CTB 47 26 50 35 / 0 0 0 10
HLN 48 25 51 32 / 10 0 0 10
BZN 45 19 46 27 / 70 0 0 10
WYS 34 11 32 19 / 90 10 30 50
DLN 42 20 40 23 / 50 0 0 10
HVR 54 26 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 47 24 51 34 / 40 0 0 0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
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