Great Falls, MT

Weather Forecast Office

Montana Fire Weather Decision Support Site

Fire Weather Forecast:

441
FNUS55 KTFX 031039
FWFTFX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for North-Central Montana
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
439 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Unsettled weather continues through Independence Day with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with temperatures 5-10
degrees below average. A warming trend begins over the weekend,
with temperatures expected to be well above average by early next
week. This warmth will begin to quickly cure fire fuels, and will
likely set the stage for an increase in fire danger. Ludwig

MTZ112-032215-
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
439 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
* Max Temperature.......63-69...57-62 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......6 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........48-58 percent...57-67 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......21 percent up...10 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................3.
* CWR...................20 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
Slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Slight chance of
showers through the night.
* Min Temperature.......44-49.
24 hr trend......1 degree down.
* Max Humidity..........88-98 percent.
24 hr trend......3 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................3 until 2400, then 1.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......69-75...62-67 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......6 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........40-50 percent.
24 hr trend......10 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................1 until 1200, then 3.
* CWR...................10 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper
70s. West winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s.
Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 50. Highs in the lower 80s.
West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the upper
80s.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs around 90.

$$

MTZ113-032215-
Hill and Blaine Counties-
439 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Chance of showers in the
morning. Chance of thunderstorms through the day. Showers likely
in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......65-70...57-62 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......5 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........55-65 percent...66-74 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......10 percent up...22 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................3.
* CWR...................20 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low (Above 3000 feet)...mid level
haines 4 low (Below 3000 feet).

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening.
* Min Temperature.......48-53.
24 hr trend......1 degree down.
* Max Humidity..........91-100 percent.
24 hr trend......Unchanged...7 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................3 until 2400, then 1.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......70-75...62-67 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......6 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........48-58 percent.
24 hr trend......1 percent down...9 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................2 until 1200, then 3.
* CWR...................10 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low (Above 3000 feet)...mid level
haines 4 low (Below 3000 feet).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s.
West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s.
Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower
80s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the upper
80s.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the
upper 80s.

$$

MTZ114-032215-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
439 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Chance of showers in the
morning. Chance of thunderstorms through the day. Showers likely
in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......63-68...51-60 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......8 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........50-60 percent.
24 hr trend......21 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................3.
* CWR...................30 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
Chance of thunderstorms and slight chance of showers in the
evening.
* Min Temperature.......41-47.
24 hr trend......1 degree down.
* Max Humidity..........82-92 percent.
24 hr trend......8 percent up...2 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 5 to 10 mph.
* LAL...................3 until 2400, then 1.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......70-75...58-67 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......9 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........34-44 percent.
24 hr trend......11 percent down...17 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................1 until 1200, then 2.
* CWR...................10 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid
70s. West winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows around 50. Highs in the lower 70s. Northwest
winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower
80s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid
80s.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the
upper 80s.

$$

MTZ115-032215-
Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
439 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......65-70...57-64 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......6 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........53-63 percent.
24 hr trend......20 percent up...12 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* LAL...................3 until 1200, then 4.
* CWR...................20 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low (Above 3000 feet)...mid level
haines 4 low (Below 3000 feet).

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
* Min Temperature.......47-52.
24 hr trend......1 degree down.
* Max Humidity..........88-98 percent.
24 hr trend......4 percent up...4 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................3 until 2400, then 1.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers in
the morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms through the day.
Chance of showers in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......70-76...61-67 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......6 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........42-51 percent.
24 hr trend......11 percent down...6 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................2 until 1200, then 3.
* CWR...................10 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low (Above 3000 feet)...mid level
haines 4 low (Below 3000 feet).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs around 80.
West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid 70s.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower
80s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the upper
80s.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the
lower 90s.

$$

MTZ116-032215-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
439 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......63-69...54-63 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......3 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........44-54 percent.
24 hr trend......9 percent up...15 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................3.
* CWR...................20 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening.
* Min Temperature.......41-46.
24 hr trend......1 degree down.
* Max Humidity..........80-90 percent.
24 hr trend......6 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 5 to 10 mph.
* LAL...................4 until 2400, then 1.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......68-75...60-68 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......6 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........30-40 percent.
24 hr trend......13 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................1 until 1200, then 2.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....3 very low.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower
70s. West winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 50. Highs in the lower 70s.
West winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper
70s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.MONDAY...Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower 80s.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid
80s.

$$

MTZ117-032215-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
439 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny then becoming mostly cloudy.
Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the
morning, then showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......62-69...52-62 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Min Humidity..........51-61 percent.
24 hr trend......18 percent up...12 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* LAL...................3 until 1200, then 4.
* CWR...................30 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
* Min Temperature.......41-49.
24 hr trend......3 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........84-94 percent.
24 hr trend......4 percent down...3 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................3 until 2400, then 1.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......67-76...57-66 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......3 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........40-50 percent.
24 hr trend......16 percent down...9 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................2 until 1200, then 3.
* CWR...................10 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid
70s. West winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows around 50. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds
15 to 20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper
70s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid
80s.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid
80s.

$$

MTZ118-032215-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National
Forest-
439 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......63-71...53-63 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......5 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........42-52 percent.
24 hr trend......9 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................2 until 1200, then 3.
* CWR...................20 percent.
* High Level Haines.....3 very low.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
* Min Temperature.......44-49.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Max Humidity..........81-91 percent.
24 hr trend......14 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the west after midnight.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................4 until 2400, then 1.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......68-76...59-68 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......6 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........30-40 percent.
24 hr trend......9 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................1 until 1200, then 3.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....3 very low.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper
70s. West winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the
upper 70s. West winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 50. Highs in the lower 80s.
North winds 15 to 20 mph.
.MONDAY...Clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the upper 80s.
.TUESDAY...Clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the upper 80s.

$$

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671
FXUS65 KTFX 031740
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1140 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.Aviation Section Updated...

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues today and tomorrow as upper level
troughing helps promote the development of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures begin to warm over the weekend and next
week, setting the stage for the start of a heat wave next week.

&&

.Update...

Only minor updates this morning, mainly to nudge PoPs up through
the morning hours to better match radar trends. Otherwise the
remainder of the forecast remains on track an no other updates
were needed. - Moldan

&&

.AVIATION...
03/18Z TAF Period

Unsettled weather is expected to continue through around 04/02Z
before tapering off. During this time, expect intermittent showers
and thunderstorms, periods of mountain obscuration, and periods of
low-VFR to MVFR conditions. By later in the afternoon clouds are
expected to break for KEKS, KWYS, KHLN, and KCTB while lingering mid
to high level clouds will persist for all other sites through the
rest of the period.

-thor

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024/

Key Points:

-Afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms continue today and
Independence Day

-Near to below average temperatures expected to continue through
Independence Day

-Temperatures begin to warm over the weekend and next week, with
a heat wave likely beginning next week

Short term (through Independence Day)... Broad upper level
troughing remains through Independence Day across the Northern
Rockies, which will result in a continuation of the recent cool
and unsettled weather that we have seen the past few days. Early
morning radar imagery shows widely scattered rain showers in an
area bounded to the north by US 2 and to the south by a Lewistown
to Great Falls to Lincoln line, and these showers are slowly
moving east. These showers will continue through the day today,
with the focus of the showers gradually shifting to the south over
the higher terrain. With these showers around, temperatures will
struggle to get out of the mid 60s, with just a few locations
along the Missouri River managing to see 70 this afternoon.

While the upper level trough will shift a bit for Independence
Day, north westerly flow aloft will help to keep the atmosphere
primed for a few instability showers in the afternoon, especially
across Central Montana. With the axis of todays trough shifted a
bit to the east, temperatures will manage to warm a bit, with most
locations seeing highs in the 70s with a few isolated areas
reaching 80 degrees.

Extended (Friday through next Wednesday)... Temperatures begin to
trend warmer to end this week as an impressively strong upper
level ridge begins to develop over California/Nevada, with a ridge
axis extending up the West Coast. Highs on Friday and Saturday
will reach the upper 70s and low 80s for most of the lower
elevations as the ridge builds with a few ring of fire
thunderstorms developing on the fringes of this upper level ridge
(the edges of upper level ridges like these tend to be favorable
to some thunderstorm development, hence the nickname ring of
fire). Depending on the timing of any showers or thunderstorms,
some relief from the heat will be possible where the storms move
through, especially if they manage to produce some cool outflow
breezes.

As we head into early next week, the ridge will continue to
strengthen and shift eastward, putting us into what looks like the
beginning of the first heat wave of the summer, with many
locations seeing multiple days of temperatures exceeding at least
90 degrees as early as Monday (and even Sunday for the Helena
valley). With the ridge overhead, any shower or thunderstorm
activity will be incredibly isolated/nonexistent, which while not
allowing for any atmospheric relief from the heat, will also
reduce the risk for natural fire starts. Ensemble data for next
week shows a high likelihood of this heat wave extending through
at least all of next week, with some indications that it could
last all the way through the following week as well (meaning at
least 10 days), with some areas possibly seeing multiple
consecutive days of temperatures over 100. Great Falls, for
example, has multiple consecutive days with at least 50% of the
ensemble members forecasting at least 100, with some of those
exceeding the all time record high of 107 (July 25, 1933). While
this degree of heat is not guaranteed yet, it is time to start
preparing for the possibility of heat well outside the
climatological norm. Ludwig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 67 47 74 47 / 70 30 20 10
CTB 67 46 72 45 / 70 20 20 10
HLN 74 50 79 50 / 70 40 10 0
BZN 69 42 73 45 / 50 30 10 10
WYS 64 33 67 33 / 40 10 10 0
DLN 68 39 73 42 / 30 10 0 0
HVR 70 50 74 50 / 70 30 30 10
LWT 64 44 68 45 / 80 30 50 10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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