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492
FXUS65 KTFX 261726
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1026 AM MST Tue Nov 26 2024

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A cold airmass lingers along the Hi-line today while temperatures
moderate across areas to the south and west.

-Areas of fog are likely to develop tonight across portions of north-
central Montana, particularly across Hill and Blaine counties.

-Areas of light snow are expected Wednesday night through Saturday
with potential for minor accumulations across north-central MT
Wednesday night into Thursday

-Temperatures trend cooler for all areas later this week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 418 AM MST Tue Nov 26 2024/

- Meteorological Overview:

Satellite imagery early this morning shows mainly mid and high
level moisture streaming east across the Northern Rockies and MT
ahead of an upper level trough axis extending from central Canada
southwest to an upper level low centered off the OR coast. Some
light snow showers or flurries are possible across the area today
as this moisture moves through the region but with only weak forcing
little or no accumulation is expected. A cold airmass remains
entrenched across much of the north-central MT plains early this
morning, but it has eroded from the foothills adjacent the Rocky
Mtn Front and central MT mountains with southwest winds likely to
bring warmer temperatures today to areas as far east as I-15 and
as far north as the Missouri River on the plains. The weak surface
trough responsible for the southwest winds today will slump south
tonight as the upper trough axis shifts across the region and
this will allow the shallow cold airmass to spread back across
most of the north-central MT plains overnight with areas of fog
likely to spread south from southern AB/SK into areas along the
Hi-line and potentially as far south as Chouteau county.

A northwesterly flow aloft sets up following the passage of the
trough axis tonight and continues through the upcoming weekend as
upper level ridging builds offshore of the west coast. A series of
shortwave disturbances cascade through the region in this flow with
the first arriving Wednesday night and additional waves moving
through the area later Thursday through Saturday. These are fairly
quick moving "Clipper" type disturbances with trajectories favoring
north-central MT for brief periods of light snow with passage of each
disturbance with most areas likely to see an inch or less of snow
accumulation. Each of these disturbances reinforces the cold
airmass/surface high pressure centered across the Canadian Prairies
with temperatures trending colder but the coldest of this airmass
looks to remain to the northeast with areas along the Hi-line
again most likely to see overnight temperatures near or below zero
later this week into the weekend.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Confidence in todays temperature forecast is somewhat low for much
of the north-central MT plains with shallow cold air likely to
remain in place at elevations near and below 3000 ft. Today`s
forecast Max temperatures were lowered to the 10th-25th percentile of
NBM guidance across these areas including much of the Hill and
Blaine counties.

Probabilities for fog with visibility less than 1 mile tonight is 50%
or higher from Toole county east through Blaine county and as far
south as Ft Benton in Chouteau county with hi-resolution model
ensembles highlighting areas from Havre through Big Sandy with an
80% probability of visibility to 1/2 mile or less.

The greatest risk for measurable snowfall with the clipper system
Wednesday night into Thursday morning will be across north-central
MT where probabilities for 1 inch or more snowfall amounts
are 40-50%.

Later this weekend into early next week, medium range model
ensembles broadly support upper level riding shifting inland across
the western US resulting in a trend toward drier and milder
conditions though some uncertainty continues on the timing
of the transition. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
26/18Z TAF Period

Mainly mid and high clouds stream across the region today with a
few light snow showers and local terrain obscuration near
mountains while VFR conditions prevail at terminals. Clouds
decrease some later this afternoon but an area of lower clouds
and fog are expected to spread south this evening from AB/SK into
portions of N-central MT including KHVR. Hoenisch/thor

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 41 15 33 12 / 10 0 10 60
CTB 32 6 21 3 / 10 0 20 70
HLN 40 21 38 20 / 20 10 10 30
BZN 38 16 36 15 / 20 20 0 20
WYS 30 5 26 8 / 60 40 20 40
DLN 36 13 33 11 / 20 10 0 0
HVR 16 3 21 0 / 30 0 30 80
LWT 39 15 32 11 / 20 20 10 70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
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