Great Falls, MT

Weather Forecast Office

Montana Fire Weather Decision Support Site

Fire Weather Forecast:

104
FNUS55 KTFX 190851
FWFTFX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for North-Central Montana
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
251 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.DISCUSSION...

Southwesterly winds increase today ahead of an approaching cold
front, with wind gusts around 40 mph at times over zones 112 and
114. The front will move in a northwest to southeast fashion this
afternoon and bring a northwesterly wind shift followed by
scattered shower activity. A broad trough then remains over the
Northern Rockies through at least the middle of next week, with
periods of lower elevation rain showers, mountain snow, and a few
isolated thunderstorms.

MTZ112-192215-
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
251 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Chance of showers in the
afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......52-62...42-52 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......6 degrees up...unchanged higher elevations.
* Min Humidity..........34-44 percent...48-58 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......13 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. West winds 20 to 25 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. West winds 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the
evening. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
* Min Temperature.......32-37.
24 hr trend......3 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........82-92 percent.
24 hr trend......30 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.SUNDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Chance of rain and snow
showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......48-56...40-47 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......7 degrees down...1 degree down higher
elevations.
* Min Humidity..........45-55 percent...55-65 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......12 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the southwest in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to
the south in the afternoon.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of snow
showers. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the upper 40s. West
winds 20 to 25 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Lows
in the upper 20s. Highs in the upper 40s. Northwest winds 20 to
25 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 20s. Highs in the mid 50s. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the mid 50s.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower
30s. Highs in the mid 50s.

$$

MTZ113-192215-
Hill and Blaine Counties-
251 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature.......61-66...55-60 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......10 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........27-36 percent.
24 hr trend......18 percent up...6 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to
the west in the afternoon.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers.
* Min Temperature.......34-40.
24 hr trend......5 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........84-94 percent.
24 hr trend......32 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...North winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.SUNDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers in
the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......54-59.
24 hr trend......7 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........40-48 percent.
24 hr trend......9 percent up...15 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the southwest in the afternoon.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.MONDAY...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower
50s. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Lows
in the lower 30s. Highs around 50. Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 20s. Highs in the upper 50s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the upper 50s.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 30s. Highs in the upper 50s.

$$

MTZ114-192215-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
251 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny then becoming mostly cloudy.
Chance of showers in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......53-63...39-49 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......8 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........32-42 percent...52-62 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......13 percent up...1 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 20 to 30 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. West winds 20 to 30 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the
evening. Chance of snow showers through the night. Slight chance
of showers after midnight.
* Min Temperature.......30-36.
24 hr trend......Unchanged...7 degrees up higher elevations.
* Max Humidity..........71-81 percent...80-90 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......20 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 25 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. West winds 15 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.SUNDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers and
slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain and
snow showers likely in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......50-58...36-46 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......6 degrees down...1 degree up higher elevations.
* Min Humidity..........37-47 percent...60-70 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......10 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.MONDAY...Windy. Snow showers with showers likely. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the upper 40s. West winds around 25 mph.
.TUESDAY...Windy. Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers and
showers. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the upper 40s. West
winds around 25 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers and slight
chance of showers. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the lower 50s.
West winds 15 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers and slight
chance of showers. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the lower 50s.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Lows in
the mid 30s. Highs in the mid 50s.

$$

MTZ115-192215-
Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
251 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature.......61-66...54-60 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......11 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........25-34 percent.
24 hr trend......13 percent up...2 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to
the west in the afternoon.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers.
* Min Temperature.......36-42.
24 hr trend......8 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........75-85 percent.
24 hr trend......26 percent up...12 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SUNDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers in
the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......55-60...47-53 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......6 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........39-47 percent.
24 hr trend......9 percent up...16 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers. Lows in the upper 30s.
Highs in the mid 50s. West winds 20 to 25 mph.
.TUESDAY...Windy. Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers.
Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the lower 50s. West winds around
25 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the mid 50s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 30s. Highs in the upper 50s.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper
30s. Highs in the upper 50s.

$$

MTZ116-192215-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
251 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny then becoming mostly cloudy.
Chance of showers in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......52-58...41-51 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......10 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........35-44 percent...46-56 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......14 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow
showers in the evening, then slight chance of rain and snow
showers after midnight.
* Min Temperature.......28-34.
24 hr trend......5 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........82-92 percent.
24 hr trend......21 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.SUNDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Slight chance of snow showers
in the morning, then showers and snow showers likely in the
afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......49-55...39-49 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......5 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........45-55 percent...54-64 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......6 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.MONDAY...Windy. Snow showers and chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 20s. Highs around 40. West winds around 25 mph.
.TUESDAY...Windy. Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows in
the mid 20s. Highs in the mid 40s. West winds around 25 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain and snow
showers. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the upper 40s. Northwest
winds 15 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Lows
around 30. Highs around 50.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
snow showers. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the lower 50s.

$$

MTZ117-192215-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
251 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature.......55-65...46-56 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......7 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........30-40 percent.
24 hr trend......6 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers through
the night. Chance of snow showers after midnight.
* Min Temperature.......29-38.
24 hr trend......2 degrees up...9 degrees up higher elevations.
* Max Humidity..........75-85 percent.
24 hr trend......12 percent up...25 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.SUNDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain and
snow showers in the morning, then chance of showers in the
afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......51-60...43-51 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......8 degrees down...3 degrees down higher
elevations.
* Min Humidity..........39-49 percent.
24 hr trend......9 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.MONDAY...Windy. Showers, snow showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the upper 40s.
West winds around 25 mph.
.TUESDAY...Windy. Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers and
showers. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the upper 40s. West
winds around 30 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Lows
in the upper 20s. Highs in the lower 50s. South winds 15 to
20 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
snow showers. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the lower 50s.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Lows in
the mid 30s. Highs in the mid 50s.

$$

MTZ118-192215-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National
Forest-
251 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers in
the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......55-62...45-54 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......15 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........30-40 percent.
24 hr trend......4 percent up...13 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...South winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the
west in the afternoon.
Ridges.............West winds 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers through
the night.
* Min Temperature.......32-37.
24 hr trend......5 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........79-89 percent.
24 hr trend......23 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to
the southwest after midnight.
Ridges.............Windy. West winds around 25 mph decreasing
to 15 to 20 mph after midnight.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.SUNDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Chance of showers in the
afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......51-58...42-51 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......3 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........37-47 percent.
24 hr trend......9 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.MONDAY...Windy. Showers with possible showers and thunderstorms
likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid 40s. West winds
around 25 mph.
.TUESDAY...Windy. Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers and
slight chance of showers. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the
upper 40s. West winds around 30 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers and slight
chance of showers. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the lower 50s.
North winds 15 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain and snow
showers. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid 50s.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with chance of rain and snow showers.
Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the upper 50s.

$$

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983
FXUS65 KTFX 191143
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
543 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will usher in a return to unsettled conditions
later today through at least the middle of next week, with
periods of lower elevation rain showers, mountain snow, and
isolated thunderstorms.

- Afternoon temperatures warm as much as 5 to 10 degrees
above average today before cooling closer to seasonal averages
for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 249 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025/

- Meteorological Overview:

Southwesterly surface winds are increasing along the Rocky
Mountain Front and adjacent high plains this morning as a trough
approaches from the northwest. Expect a mild and breezy to windy
day before the cold front slides southeastward and brings
scattered showers and a northerly wind shift this afternoon and
evening. Aside from a few wind gusts over 40 mph along the Rocky
Mountain Front, there are not too many concerns with today`s winds
and shower activity.

The broad and low amplitude mid- level trough will bring an
extended period of unsettled weather, continuing through at least
the middle of next week, with scattered showers, mountain snow,
and isolated thunderstorms. Precipitation amounts through Sunday
evening will generally range from trace amounts at lower
elevations to around a tenth to a couple tenths an inch in the
mountains. Snow levels will generally be at or above pass level
through Sunday evening and may even rise above 7,000 ft over
Central and Southwest Montana Sunday afternoon due to warm air
advection ahead of the main trough axis.

Then the colder H700/H500 (-10C/-25C) temperatures move in Sunday
night and Monday and lower snow levels back to pass level and
below. Rain and snow amounts do increase on Monday, but the
trough`s broad nature and more diffuse frontogenetic forcing
should limit winter impacts. Although less numerous, scattered
showers, light mountain snow, and isolated thunderstorm activity
will continue Tuesday through Thursday with the aforementioned
trough remaining over the Northern Rockies, albeit in a weakening
state.

Most ensembles continue to highlight a split trough along the
Pacific coast bringing weak southwesterly flow aloft over the
Northern Rockies next Friday. Eventually the trough moves into the
interior west, but its evolution is uncertain at this time.
Currently there is an expectation for at least lower grade
unsettled conditions and near average temperatures heading into
next weekend. - RCG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Rain, snow, and isolated thunderstorms Sunday through Thursday...

Although the trough will take its time passing through the
Northern Rockies, a broader, less amplified system looks to result
in less impactful rain and snow. The steadiest and heaviest
precipitation is expected Sunday night through Tuesday morning
when the trough`s cold pool is overhead and snow levels are
lowest.

The best chance (60 to 90%) for rain/snow amounts in excess of a
half inch/2 inches during this timeframe is currently reserved for
mountain areas. There is also a 70 to 90% chance for 6 inches of
snow or more over the northern portions of the Madison and
Gallatin mountain ranges. Roadway impacts should be mostly
confined to the late night and early morning hours, with the
southwest passes being most susceptible to slushy roadway
accumulations.

In addition to the snow, conditions will also need to be
monitored for isolated thunderstorm activity, especially on Sunday
and Monday with the colder air aloft supporting at least a couple
hundred J/kg of CAPE during the afternoon hours. - RCG

&&

.AVIATION...
19/12Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will generally persist through the first 6 hours of
the TAF period before a cold front arrives this afternoon. After
19/18Z ceilings will gradually start to lower with mountain
obscuration remaining a concern as low-VFR to mid-MVFR ceilings
are expected across much of the region through at least 20/12Z.
Precipitation chances across the region increase after 20/00Z with
precipitation generally remaining light, however, there is a
chance for some temporary MVFR visibilities under heavier showers.
-thor

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 64 38 59 35 / 30 50 40 40
CTB 57 32 52 30 / 80 40 60 30
HLN 63 37 59 35 / 20 50 40 50
BZN 59 34 57 32 / 10 70 50 80
WYS 50 25 50 23 / 10 60 60 70
DLN 58 31 57 31 / 10 80 20 50
HVR 65 36 59 34 / 20 90 50 70
LWT 62 37 55 34 / 10 50 50 80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
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