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337
FXUS65 KTFX 272344
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
444 PM MST Fri Dec 27 2024

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow continues today, mostly over Southwest Montana with
another round of snow expected along the Divide and Southwest
Montana on Saturday.

- A more widespread snowfall still expected Sunday into Monday
over Central and Southwest Montana.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 208 PM MST Fri Dec 27 2024/

- Meteorological Overview:

An area of low pressure continues to move eastward across southern
Canada. As this low moves to the east, the strong winds will
diminish along the front range of the Rockies this morning. Light
snow continues this morning around West Yellowstone, with the next
wave of moisture moving into the western portions of Southwest MT
later this morning. This wave of moisture will then affect Southwest
MT through the day on Saturday.

On Sunday, a wave of moisture will move eastward across MT and at
the same time a boundary of cold air will be moving southward from
Canada. This will result in widespread snow developing over Central
and Southwest MT by Sunday evening, with the snow ending on Monday.

For Tuesday into Thursday, expect an upper level ridge to develop to
our west, with a northwesterly flow aloft over Central MT, resulting
in cold air sliding southward from Canada into Central MT. This
colder air will not last long, as the upper level ridge moves
eastward over MT by Friday, resulting in warmer air moving back into
the CWA. Brusda

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Today through Saturday... The ongoing threat for additional 2 to 6
inches in northwest Beaverhead county was enough to extend the
advisory out to Saturday afternoon. When looking at the advisory for
the Madison and Gallatin ranges, the current expiration time tonight
is on track and given that there is a more definitive lull in
precipitation between today and Sunday, the decision was made to let
the advisory expire tonight and deal with the main event on
Sunday/Monday separately.

There is just enough upslope potential along the Little Belts on
Saturday to warrant issuing an advisory. Generally the greatest
impacts will be confined to the higher elevations but concern for
the Hwy 89 corridor is high enough to put out a headline.


Sunday through Monday... There is a concern for heavy snow along the
Big Belts, Bridgers, Little Belts, and Snowies Sunday into Monday
with confidence in the 70 to 90% range that snow totals will exceed
6 inches and in the 50 to 70% range that many locations in this area
will exceed 9 inches. Thus the decision was made to add all of these.

The wild card for snow totals has been the northern Rockies. The
latest model guidance backed off on the higher amounts and now the
probability of 9 or more inches of snow has dropped below 50% across
most of the two zones encompassing that region. It is possible that
future model runs may be more confident and the headlines may need
to be adjusted but for now, there was too much uncertainty in
reaching winter storm criteria to issue a watch. A similar situation
developed along northwest Beaverhead county. The Beaverhead county
mountains could see quite a bit of snow but as of now there is not
enough confidence for a watch.

Otherwise, most of central and southwest Montana is looking to
receive less 2 inches, particularly along the plains. This will
warrant advisories closer to the event but for now, the main threat
remains in the mountains. -thor


&&

.AVIATION...
28/00Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will predominately prevail throughout the 2800/2900
TAF period; however, periods of low-VFR CIGS will continue to
impact the KBZN and KEKS terminals through 18z Saturday.
Additionally, vicinity snow showers will continue near the KEKS
terminal through at least 09z Saturday after which snow showers
activity is expected to decrease temporally over the adjacent
Madison Range. Mountain obscuration is expected at times over the
next 24 hours. - Moldan

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 32 48 31 41 / 10 20 0 70
CTB 26 43 26 37 / 0 10 0 40
HLN 28 46 29 40 / 20 40 10 90
BZN 25 44 27 41 / 30 50 10 90
WYS 18 31 20 34 / 70 80 70 100
DLN 24 41 25 41 / 10 30 20 60
HVR 23 45 23 38 / 0 10 0 10
LWT 26 44 26 41 / 10 30 0 60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST
Sunday for East Glacier Park Region-Little Belt and Highwood
Mountains.

Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon
for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Little Belt and
Highwood Mountains-Snowy and Judith Mountains.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Saturday for Northwest
Beaverhead County.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for
Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains.

Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Monday
morning for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial
Mountains.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

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