Forecast Group - YELLOW (YEL) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BFYM8 95 (144/152) 100 (196/196) 85 (129/152) 75 (147/196) 54 ( 82/152) 38 ( 74/196) 21 ( 32/152) spot-on 0 under -10 under -10 under -25 under -29 under -28 under -16 16.9 -16.9 20.4 -20.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BILM8 95 (145/152) 100 (196/196) 89 (135/152) 85 (167/196) 73 (111/152) 48 ( 95/196) 27 ( 41/152) spot-on 0 under -10 under -14 under -35 under -48 under -38 under -22 23.9 -23.9 29.0 -29.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BNYM8 96 (146/152) 100 (176/176) 94 (143/152) 90 (158/176) 85 (129/152) 77 (136/176) 60 ( 91/152) under -1 under -10 under -19 under -40 under -60 under -67 under -55 36.0 -36.0 39.2 -39.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BTMM8 93 (142/152) 100 (196/196) 88 (134/152) 84 (164/196) 71 (108/152) 55 (107/196) 42 ( 64/152) over 2 under -10 under -13 under -34 under -46 under -45 under -37 26.7 -26.1 29.6 -29.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORM8 95 (145/152) 100 (196/196) 80 (122/152) 69 (135/196) 45 ( 69/152) 29 ( 57/196) 13 ( 20/152) spot-on 0 under -10 under -5 under -19 under -20 under -19 under -8 11.6 -11.6 14.6 -14.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EDGM8 93 (141/152) 100 (155/155) 84 (128/152) 66 (103/155) 53 ( 81/152) 37 ( 57/155) 22 ( 34/152) over 2 under -10 under -9 under -16 under -28 under -27 under -17 15.6 -15.0 18.0 -18.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FRYM8 94 ( 84/ 89) 100 ( 89/ 89) 92 ( 82/ 89) 83 ( 74/ 89) 80 ( 71/ 89) 39 ( 35/ 89) 25 ( 22/ 89) over 1 under -10 under -17 under -33 under -55 under -29 under -20 23.6 -23.3 28.8 -28.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLNM8 100 ( 89/ 89) 100 ( 89/ 89) 100 ( 89/ 89) 99 ( 88/ 89) 91 ( 81/ 89) 60 ( 53/ 89) 52 ( 46/ 89) under -5 under -10 under -25 under -49 under -66 under -50 under -47 36.0 -36.0 40.0 -40.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HRDM8 98 ( 87/ 89) 100 ( 89/ 89) 93 ( 83/ 89) 82 ( 73/ 89) 69 ( 61/ 89) 45 ( 40/ 89) 29 ( 26/ 89) under -3 under -10 under -18 under -32 under -44 under -35 under -24 23.7 -23.7 27.8 -27.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVM8 95 (144/152) 100 (196/196) 87 (132/152) 77 (151/196) 53 ( 81/152) 34 ( 67/196) 24 ( 36/152) spot-on 0 under -10 under -12 under -27 under -28 under -24 under -19 17.1 -17.1 20.2 -20.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MICM8 94 (143/152) 100 (170/170) 94 (143/152) 89 (152/170) 74 (112/152) 44 ( 74/170) 30 ( 46/152) over 1 under -10 under -19 under -39 under -49 under -34 under -25 25.3 -25.0 30.2 -30.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MILM8 92 ( 82/ 89) 100 ( 89/ 89) 89 ( 79/ 89) 84 ( 75/ 89) 80 ( 71/ 89) 49 ( 44/ 89) 37 ( 33/ 89) over 3 under -10 under -14 under -34 under -55 under -39 under -32 26.7 -25.9 30.4 -30.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHBW4 78 (104/134) 100 (134/134) 77 (103/134) 76 (102/134) 66 ( 89/134) 51 ( 69/134) 42 ( 56/134) over 17 under -10 under -2 under -26 under -41 under -41 under -37 24.9 -20.0 24.0 -24.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SIDM8 98 ( 87/ 89) 100 ( 89/ 89) 94 ( 84/ 89) 88 ( 78/ 89) 81 ( 72/ 89) 52 ( 46/ 89) 33 ( 29/ 89) under -3 under -10 under -19 under -38 under -56 under -42 under -28 28.0 -28.0 33.0 -33.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SLDM8 82 (124/152) 100 (196/196) 68 (103/152) 48 ( 95/196) 23 ( 35/152) 16 ( 31/196) 9 ( 14/152) over 13 under -10 over 7 over 2 over 2 under -6 under -4 6.3 0.6 5.4 -1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SRAM8 95 (144/152) 100 (190/190) 88 (133/152) 79 (150/190) 62 ( 94/152) 43 ( 82/190) 22 ( 34/152) spot-on 0 under -10 under -13 under -29 under -37 under -33 under -17 19.9 -19.9 24.4 -24.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SXXW4 19 ( 17/ 89) 100 ( 89/ 89) 19 ( 17/ 89) 16 ( 14/ 89) 16 ( 14/ 89) 9 ( 8/ 89) 6 ( 5/ 89) over 76 under -10 over 56 over 34 over 9 over 1 under -1 26.7 23.6 22.0 18.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TFLW4 89 (136/152) 100 (195/195) 78 (119/152) 66 (129/195) 43 ( 65/152) 28 ( 54/195) 14 ( 22/152) over 6 under -10 under -3 under -16 under -18 under -18 under -9 11.4 -9.7 13.0 -13.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YLOW4 91 (138/152) 100 (195/195) 82 (125/152) 76 (149/195) 62 ( 94/152) 65 (127/195) 55 ( 83/152) over 4 under -10 under -7 under -26 under -37 under -55 under -50 27.0 -25.9 27.0 -27.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================