Forecast Group - UPRREP (URP) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEKN1 35 ( 49/139) 100 (143/143) 35 ( 48/139) 27 ( 38/143) 12 ( 16/139) 5 ( 7/143) 2 ( 3/139) over 60 under -10 over 40 over 23 over 13 over 5 over 3 22.0 19.1 18.2 14.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BENN1 53 ( 73/139) 100 (169/169) 51 ( 71/139) 56 ( 95/169) 42 ( 58/139) 39 ( 66/169) 32 ( 45/139) over 42 under -10 over 24 under -6 under -17 under -29 under -27 22.1 -3.3 17.2 -7.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVN1 50 ( 70/139) 100 (169/169) 38 ( 53/139) 20 ( 34/169) 16 ( 22/139) 11 ( 18/169) 12 ( 16/139) over 45 under -10 over 37 over 30 over 9 under -1 under -7 19.9 14.7 17.4 13.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAMN1 46 ( 64/139) 100 (143/143) 43 ( 60/139) 38 ( 55/143) 20 ( 28/139) 10 ( 14/143) 7 ( 10/139) over 49 under -10 over 32 over 12 over 5 spot-on 0 under -2 15.7 12.3 11.8 7.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CDBK1 97 (135/139) 100 (169/169) 95 (132/139) 59 (100/169) 45 ( 62/139) 15 ( 25/169) 6 ( 8/139) under -2 under -10 under -20 under -9 under -20 under -5 under -1 9.6 -9.6 12.8 -12.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CULN1 87 (121/139) 100 (143/143) 83 (115/139) 69 ( 98/143) 50 ( 70/139) 31 ( 44/143) 24 ( 33/139) over 8 under -10 under -8 under -19 under -25 under -21 under -19 15.7 -13.4 16.6 -16.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HAIN1 54 ( 75/139) 100 (169/169) 52 ( 72/139) 47 ( 79/169) 28 ( 39/139) 18 ( 31/169) 13 ( 18/139) over 41 under -10 over 23 over 3 under -3 under -8 under -8 13.7 5.4 9.4 1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LDLK1 2 ( 3/139) 100 (169/169) 2 ( 3/139) 2 ( 3/169) 0 ( 0/139) 0 ( 0/169) 0 ( 0/139) over 93 under -10 over 73 over 48 over 25 over 10 over 5 37.7 34.9 33.2 29.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MCKN1 97 (135/139) 100 (143/143) 91 (127/139) 64 ( 91/143) 35 ( 49/139) 16 ( 23/143) 12 ( 16/139) under -2 under -10 under -16 under -14 under -10 under -6 under -7 9.3 -9.3 11.2 -11.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MKRN1 75 (104/139) 100 (143/143) 73 (101/139) 57 ( 81/143) 38 ( 53/139) 18 ( 26/143) 10 ( 14/139) over 20 under -10 over 2 under -7 under -13 under -8 under -5 9.3 -3.0 8.0 -7.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NCRK1 80 (111/139) 100 (169/169) 70 ( 97/139) 59 ( 99/169) 32 ( 45/139) 14 ( 24/169) 6 ( 9/139) over 15 under -10 over 5 under -9 under -7 under -4 under -1 7.3 -1.6 7.0 -5.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ORNN1 68 ( 94/139) 100 (143/143) 59 ( 82/139) 46 ( 66/143) 27 ( 38/139) 15 ( 22/143) 12 ( 16/139) over 27 under -10 over 16 over 4 under -2 under -5 under -7 10.1 3.3 7.4 0.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PALN1 87 (121/139) 100 (143/143) 83 (116/139) 76 (108/143) 62 ( 86/139) 41 ( 59/143) 29 ( 40/139) over 8 under -10 under -8 under -26 under -37 under -31 under -24 20.6 -18.3 22.4 -22.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PASN1 96 (134/139) 100 (169/169) 89 (124/139) 78 (131/169) 60 ( 84/139) 37 ( 63/169) 25 ( 35/139) under -1 under -10 under -14 under -28 under -35 under -27 under -20 19.3 -19.3 22.8 -22.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- STMN1 85 (118/139) 100 (169/169) 80 (111/139) 60 (101/169) 28 ( 39/139) 15 ( 26/169) 10 ( 14/139) over 10 under -10 under -5 under -10 under -3 under -5 under -5 6.9 -4.0 6.6 -6.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- STTN1 72 (100/139) 100 (143/143) 71 ( 99/139) 58 ( 83/143) 45 ( 63/139) 34 ( 49/143) 28 ( 39/139) over 23 under -10 over 4 under -8 under -20 under -24 under -23 16.0 -8.3 13.2 -11.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WDRK1 98 (136/139) 100 (143/143) 90 (125/139) 65 ( 93/143) 36 ( 50/139) 18 ( 26/143) 12 ( 16/139) under -3 under -10 under -15 under -15 under -11 under -8 under -7 9.9 -9.9 11.8 -11.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================